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NLCS Game 1 Open Thread

Adam1_tiny by chuckb on in News

So -- is it better to have home field advantage or win game 1 of the LCS? Since the playoffs expanded in 1995, the team w/ the home field advantage has won the series 14 times and lost 12. It almost makes no difference. However, winning the first game of the series has a much stronger correlation w/ winning the series. Teams that have won the first game of the LCS have gone on to win the series 17 times against 9 losses -- almost 2 out of every 3 times.

Tonight it's Hamels vs. Lowe. Looking at the teams initially, I thought Hamels was pretty easily the best starter on either staff. I was surprised to find out, however, that BOTH Lowe AND Billingsley finished w/ lower FIPs this year than Hamels. Hamels is, unquestionably, a terrific pitcher. I guess my surprise came in how good Lowe and, to a lesser degree, Billingsley were this year. In fact, Hiroki Kuroda ALSO finished w/ a lower FIP than Hamels. It's true that the Dodgers' pitchers faced weaker competition in better pitcher's parks, but even if you normalize for competition and park factors, Billingsley, Lowe, and Hamels were all about equally good this year.

Citizens Bank Park can have a big impact on this series. There are few parks in the game that are tougher on pitchers than Citizens Bank Park is. Fortunately for the Dodgers, Lowe is an extreme ground ball pitcher -- 60.3% GB%. Hamels had a 2.99 ERA at home this year. Can you believe he was slightly better at home than on the road? He yielded 15 homers in 117.2 IP at home. Should be a really great series. BTW, let's see what the reaction is during this series or the World Series when Brad Lidge gives up a homer. He's a fly ball pitcher and has been extremely lucky to have only given up 2 so far this year. How often will we get to see the Pujols homer during this series?

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I think

the team with the smallest Culture of Losing will win every time!!

For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!

by miniboscorino on Oct 9, 2008 8:19 PM EDT   0 recs

that's as far as you can hit one

and not have it get out. Wow! What a blast!

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 8:26 PM EDT   0 recs

i highly doubt

that anyone will a homer remotely close to the Pujols home run this series.

by soccerfreak on Oct 9, 2008 8:35 PM EDT   0 recs

No

But I would love to see Manny hit one out like he did on that first home run in Wrigley, I’m still waiting for DeRosa to catch that ball at 2B.

For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!

by miniboscorino on Oct 9, 2008 8:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

no but if someone does

we’ll get to see a lot of highlights of the Pujols homer

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 9:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Phillies fans

seem to be as dead as Wrigley once the game was untied.

For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!

by miniboscorino on Oct 9, 2008 8:41 PM EDT   0 recs

No

We are not around.

For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!

by miniboscorino on Oct 9, 2008 9:01 PM EDT   0 recs

Yes really,

On a more serious note…I don’t know if anyone else is going to post tonight.

For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!

by miniboscorino on Oct 9, 2008 9:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

it's a thursday night

where is somebody, anybody?

by stlcardinalsfang on Oct 9, 2008 9:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Boo Tim McCarver

hooray Beer!!!

For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!

by miniboscorino on Oct 9, 2008 9:07 PM EDT   0 recs

+1

i hate tim. i can stand joe

by stlcardinalsfang on Oct 9, 2008 9:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Lowe's just pounding the bottom of that zone

Victorino’s a nice little player. He’s not a star but he’s Skip-like, only better.

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 9:18 PM EDT   0 recs

yep,

victorino doesn’t have the vs lefties issues, skip has

by ball in play on Oct 9, 2008 9:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

more speed, too

maybe a little more pop. Like Skip, he’s limited, but a nice player to have around.

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 9:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's less limited though

Being a switch hitter, more speed, more power, doesn’t ground into a crippling number of DPs.

I’d take Victorino as a starter on our team in a heartbeat.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 9, 2008 9:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Have the talking heads figured out how

to reconcile Howard’s obvious MVP-dom with the fact that he’s not a very good hitter?

by StanTheManFan on Oct 9, 2008 9:36 PM EDT   0 recs

Enter Tim's and Joe's

bloviating about how badly Manny was hurting the Sox!

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 9:42 PM EDT   0 recs

This just in:

Hamels is damned good!

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 9:44 PM EDT   0 recs

i noticed that too

by adiueordie on Oct 9, 2008 9:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He really is.

Strange though, that lefties hit him so much better than righties.

by njnick on Oct 9, 2008 9:47 PM EDT   0 recs

Ethier's got 2 solid hits

and that liner by Loney was smacked

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 10:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Furcal

I know a lot of people on this board have him as the number 1 or number 2 goal of this offseason but his injuries scare. I know Will Carroll said that he is not AS concerned about the lower back. Still, i could see Furcal playing in 300 games over a 3 yr contract. I just would not want to pay someone 45 million to do that.

by njnick on Oct 9, 2008 9:49 PM EDT   0 recs

that's a real concern

another is that the longer the Dodgers play, and the better Furcal plays, the more his price tag rises.

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 9:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yup.

He may price himself out of the Cardinals. Which I dont think is a bad thing. The Cards have too many injury risks – Carp/Ankiel/Glaus etc. (not last year but plantear fascitis (sp?) can flare up at any moment) to sign another one.

by njnick on Oct 9, 2008 9:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

did lowe get jammed?

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 9:54 PM EDT   0 recs

Manny, the Roberto Clemente of his generation

doesn’t need two hands on a crucial flyball.

With a track record of exemplary OF defense as Manny’s, no need for extra precautions.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Oct 9, 2008 9:56 PM EDT   0 recs

flight

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Eh, watching the replay

that ball was pretty good.

by njnick on Oct 9, 2008 10:08 PM EDT   0 recs

*wakes up*

Oh it’s a ballgame.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:08 PM EDT   0 recs

I know

it was thrown out there that Lowe would pitch 1/4/7 but i would give Kershaw the start.

by njnick on Oct 9, 2008 10:17 PM EDT   0 recs

I would too

though Lowe going 3 times would be better than using Maddux in game 4

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 10:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

wow

amazing play by Blake.

defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.

by effin fisk on Oct 9, 2008 10:17 PM EDT   0 recs

looked

like Scottie.

by njnick on Oct 9, 2008 10:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

am suddenly occupied with

Thoughts on melding Cole Hamels with A.D.A.M.
I don’t know why.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:27 PM EDT   0 recs

I may have to stop watching

due to that rendition of God Bless America. How in the hell did they ever pick her? That was horrible.

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 9, 2008 10:29 PM EDT   0 recs

It's So time!

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:31 PM EDT   0 recs

awww So.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That guy is Sooooooo Taguchi

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 9, 2008 10:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Was that Izturis?

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 9, 2008 10:32 PM EDT   0 recs

Bad bunt

worse fans!

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 10:32 PM EDT   0 recs

never boo gooch

stl should bring him back as our japanese pr guy/bat boy

by adiueordie on Oct 9, 2008 10:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Has it been brought up here yet

that Saito was left off the NLCS roster?

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 9, 2008 10:33 PM EDT   0 recs

What, really?

somehow I caught that Kuo was on, but not that Saito was off.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that's what made me think of it

I heard it earlier on the radio or something and kinda forgot about it. Didn’t hear Buck because I was on the phone. Figured I’d bring it up anyway since I wasn’t sure if it had been mentioned and in my quick scan of the page, i didn’t see it.

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 9, 2008 10:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

saito

was hurt. came back in september. never really got it together.

was not very good in game 2 of nlds. no outs, 2 runs, etc. easy decision.

by adiueordie on Oct 9, 2008 10:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Dodgers have found their 2B

DeWitt doesn’t hit enough to play 3b, but he’s pretty good offensively at 2b and he can definitely field the position. What a find!

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 10:34 PM EDT   0 recs

I'm envying their fireworks.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:36 PM EDT   0 recs

Game 4 Starter for LAD

2008 splits for PHI

Player AVgR AVGL OPSR OPSL

Rollins .274 .287 .767 .794
Victorino* .289 .279 .751 .832
Utley .306 .280 .918 .861
Howard .304 .231 1.065 .786
Burrell .251 .276 .819 .950
Werth .251 .291 .755 .920
Feliz .246 .267 .704 .758
Ruiz .253 .206 .700 .650

*66 PA as RH vs RHP not included

Maddux? Kershaw? Flip a coin?

by adiueordie on Oct 9, 2008 10:37 PM EDT   0 recs

listening on WPHT

radio on mlb radio

one of the guys is going off on the first base ump. says he’s terrible, shouldn’t be a first base ump in any game, let alone the nlcs. plus, he’s home plate ump tomorrow.

i’m assuming this will be all over sportscenter tomorrow, like the manny thing, right?

by adiueordie on Oct 9, 2008 10:39 PM EDT   0 recs

who is it?

So we can update that umpire fantasy league….

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

UFL

was funny the first two times. the last 200 times was not.

i hate sportscenter, but i can’t stop watching it. it still interests me more than 99% of everything else on television during the day.

by adiueordie on Oct 9, 2008 10:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes

I watch it for the pure comedy value.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 11:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

oh, forgot... it exists

Umpire Fantasy League

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 11:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

been meaning to comment inanely

What’s up with the Man-dreds?

Reminds me of when Belly drastically changed his for the playoffs.

"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT

by Yadi2Second on Oct 9, 2008 10:40 PM EDT   0 recs

I think this is what your looking for

The Dodgers have a bit of a dress code, I believe and while it’s not as strict as what the Yankees used to have it did have things in there about hair length and stuff. So, while he didn’t want to completely cut his hair (and I think they really didn’t want to make him) he offered to cut his hair shorter so that it was closer to the dress code.

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 9, 2008 10:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

when his helmet flew off

on that epic score from first base against the cubs, you could see a huge mess of dreads tied up on the back of his head. not sure he actually cut them.

by adiueordie on Oct 9, 2008 10:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

he's always tied them back

but now there just shorter.

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 9, 2008 10:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

btw, this is how long they were when he became a Dodger

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 9, 2008 10:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

they're still there

i think he just tied them up under the hat like softball players do.

by adiueordie on Oct 9, 2008 10:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

he looks like he's wearing a hair net

I don’t know if he’s a LF or a cafeteria line-worker

by chuckb on Oct 9, 2008 10:47 PM EDT to parent up