Men with 30 saves and the other men who love them
by DanUpBaby on Oct 6, 2008 9:15 AM EDT
in News
139 comments
Before we get started, a little personal-ad-writing. My name is Dan, and I'll be writing–should the current schedule hold up–the Monday, Tuesday, and Friday entries starting next week. I've been writing about the Cardinals for going on five years at Get Up, Baby!, often lauded as America's most punctuated baseball blog, and I'm very excited to continue my occasional analysis and playwriting at VEB. As for the personal ad, I'm a senior at the University of Missouri, majoring in English. Were it not for Ray Lankford's count-working exploits making me a baseball fan I would be making this introduction at PinballBlogNation, Viva El Jack Benny, or Gatsby Up, Baby.
What I like about Tony La Russa–in addition to his obvious talents as a Major League manager–is the sense of continuity you get, as a fan. When your team hires a new manager you have to learn their foibles. You have to figure out whether they're going to be combative, like Ozzie Guillen, or an up-and-comer, like Joe Maddon, or ready to strangle Jose Guillen, like Trey Hillman.
But with La Russa we know what we're getting. There's a comfort to this unchanging narrative, and I mean this completely sincerely. If I'm going to complain about something a manager does–and I am–I'd like to at least know what I'm in for, and that's where La Russa excels. It seems like only last week we were complaining about Dan Haren's role on the team, and now here we are complaining about Chris Perez's role on the team. Concrete roles, young players who are better than he seems to think they are–it just feels like home.
The end result is that the Cards are, tentatively, on the market for some relief pitchers, with closing credentials, to push the Chrisper (if not to subsume his role entirely.) The top free agent in the non K-Rod division–i.e., who won't cost the Cardinals $75 million–appears to be Brian Fuentes, who's gone from closer to has-been to closer so fast that if you look at the back of his baseball card it's difficult to tell which year he spent in a Turnbow-y limbo.
What's clear after the fact is that 2008 was his best season since the Rockies installed him in the closer role. His strikeout rate picked back up–11.7 K/9, sixth in baseball among relievers–and he only gave up three home runs. With B.J. Ryan still recovering from the effects of TJ surgery and Billy Wags due to undergo it he is almost certainly the best lefty reliever in the game. This would all be bad enough, for the Cardinals, but it gets worse: he picked up 30 saves again in 2008. It's not just a free agent deal, now–it's a closer deal.
We have a model for this deal in our NL Central backyard: Coco Cordero, currently keeping leads safe for the fifth place Reds. Cordero and Fuentes have had uncannily similar careers, so far. They were each a great closer for a few years; they each lost and regained the closer's role the year before they reached free agency (at the age of 31); and they each had a return-to-form contract year. Coco received a four year, $46 million contract for his troubles.
(You can see, now, where I'm going with this: Kyle Lohse needs to close for this team, and he needs to do it now.)
The market seems pretty certain about it: closers at their peak who manage to make it onto the free agent market–it's a tough role to succeed in all the way past one's arbitration years, as Chad Cordero is learning, and the good ones tend to start late or peak early–are worth around $10 million a year. B.J. Ryan will be making it through 2010; Brad Lidge and Joe Nathan, a cut above, are set up with $12 million deals.
These are the guys who have consistency to offer; the ones who are doing something, succeeding year after year, that we can't be sure Perez and Motte do. And that thing is valued at $10 million. You get down to $5 million, and you're talking to Kyle Farnsworth and Flash Gordon. You're talking to Jason Isringhausen. . . not that there's anything wrong with that.
So the Cardinals need to ask themselves something, heading into spring training, and it's not "Is Chris Perez ready to close?" It's this: "Is Chris Perez $10 million worth of not ready to close?"
This can be free agent shortstop money, or it can be free agent starter money, or it can be Chris-Perez-might-not-be-a-relief-ace-quite-yet money. Brian Fuentes would be hedging the wrong bet.
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Chrisper
I like that nickname more than Young Pitcher, though YP is also full of awesome
by StLHugo on Oct 6, 2008 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nobody spoils a pitch like Sugar Ray Lankford. Or should I say 10 to 20 pitches...
"Why does he keep saying that?"
by Red Blazer on Oct 6, 2008 9:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My recollection of Lankford
is rather different. Mine is that no one was quicker to get to two strikes than Ray Lankford—he seemed always to have two strikes on him— and few were more likely to strike out once they got there than he was. I’ll admit my memory is probably unduly colored by his later years as a Cardinal, when his discipline and judgment at the plate were terrible.
by Mike G on Oct 6, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you thinking about his last hurrah with the Cards in 2004?
Or are you thinking about mid- to late-90s?
by saladdays on Oct 6, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
his last hurrah
was one of my favorite moments as a Cardinals fan, ruined only by La Russa’s refusal to play him over Marlon Anderson. He obviously had nothing left but he ran with carefully measured abandon, played a little center field(!), and managed a league-average OPS.
by DanUpBaby on Oct 6, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my main memory of Ray Lankford
is that he had the ultimate golf swing home run
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that and he struck out a lot
but now a remember he did work the count quite well
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and that
he absolutely bowled over the catcher to win a game at old Busch. The best part was…when they showed all of the Cardinals’ runs at the end of the game, the crowd erupted again when they saw the replay of Lankford bowling him over. I don’t even think anyone left their seats until they showed the replay. Awesome!
by stlfan on Oct 7, 2008 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If there was someway out there...
to sign a guy like Fuentes to a one year deal I’d love it. Unfortunately guys like him are looking for at least three and probably four years. A deal like that is not only risky for the fact that by years 3 and 4 the guy will (likely) be greatly diminished, but also because you have a road block to guys (Perez and Motte) who will probably better by years 3 & 4 (if not years 1 & 2). Perhaps the question is “is Chris Perez $40 million (over the next four years) worth of not ready to close this year?” I think not!! There are a few guys who could be may be avail on one year deals that could get fill the gam until the Crisper is ready: Percival, Izzy, Al Reyes, Springer.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I give up!!
be before better
could be may be
gam = gap
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
And he either sets up or gets traded. It’s a poor way to end his career. Bobby Jenks wasn’t ready, either. But he did it anyway.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 6, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boby Jenks
The difference between Jenks and Perez, then and now, is that Jenks has a secondary pitch, a curve, that he can control consistently. If and when Perez can manage his slider the way Jenks manages his curve, then yeah, he’s ready.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Oct 6, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thought you guys might like to know that our old friend Brandon Backe is showing
his true colors
.
by outraged on Oct 6, 2008 9:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i heard
that the officer’s last name is molina
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 6, 2008 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
surprising behavior from a guy who thought it was a good idea to call out Albert Pujols during batting practice, is it?
by cardsgirl95 on Oct 6, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eye witness reports
http://forums.galveston.com/forums/p/1302/11943.aspx
It appears Backe was “in the wrong place at the wrong time”, but this is just one side, it may have been provoked more then what these imply.
by StLHugo on Oct 6, 2008 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the exact same thing they said
about Scott Spiezio.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 6, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The accounts are interesting
One guy that was posting on there basically says that he was there to pick up a friend from work, while waiting he saw the wedding group, which included Backe walk up, one person in the group had an open container and was confronted by a cop, that guy shoved the cop who then called for backup and a fight started, Backe supposedly saved a kid (I am assuming the guy with the container and the brother that was airlifted to a hospital) from being beaten by the cop
by StLHugo on Oct 6, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One name that I don't hear mentioned much
is Takashi Saito of the Dodgers. Stay with me here….
L.A. just finished auditioning Jonathan Broxton for their closers role in the second half of the season, and he did a bang up job for them. They also have two relievers with major league experience at AAA, Brian Falkenbourg and Mike Koplove. There’s really no need for them to re-sign a 38 year old free agent. I’ve also heard rumors that they’re looking at signing either Farnsworth or Fuentes to be a set-up man next year for Broxton.
Saito signed as a free agent with the Dodgers in February for 1Y, $2M. He’s 38 years old and has been a solid closer his entire career, either in Japan or in the US. He was nearly unhittable last year while he was rolling up 39 saves with a 327 ERA+ and a 0.715 WHIP (trust me, I had Broxton all year last year in fantasy BB and was just waiting for a Saito blow-up that never came). He’s a free agent for 2009 and will probably be looking for a deal in the range of what he made this season, around $2-$3M.
I think the Cardinals need to explore this option, because he really fills out our needs best, will be cheaper than even Isringhausen would be, and will probably accept a one year deal wherever he ends up.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 6, 2008 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If he would take that...
I would love it, because at 2-3M he would make a good set up man too since I don’t expect much from Franklin
by StLHugo on Oct 6, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great suggestion
I think the Saito level of closers is what we should be looking at and not Fuentes. But I have a feeling that he will cost more than $2-$3M. And if the Dodgers were interested in him, they would probably be able to keep him.
Don’t get me wrong, I would love to have Fuentes, just not the 4 years.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Oct 6, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
kevin gregg
is going t o be moved this off season. he’s not perfect, but he won’t cost 40 million either.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
by Dave Barry on Oct 6, 2008 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's not perfect....
and he’s also not very good either. I’d rather roll the dice with Perez than trade for a guy with a 122 ERA+ over the last couple of seasons. His peripherals are worse than Springer’s and are just a slight bit better than Ryan Franklin’s. Not a guy worth trading for, imo. If he was a free agent I could see signing him, but giving up talent to get him doesn’t make a lot of sense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 6, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
depends on what he cost
which is pretty hard to determine. as has been discussed before, the closer role isn’t as high leverage as others would make it seem to be. todd jones brought his team to the world series when he had nothing left, borowski almost did. brian wilson had 41 saves this season despite an ugly 4.62 era.
gregg had a 3.41 fip this season and will be non-tendered if not traded. obviously if the marlins ask for a high profile, talented prospect it would make it a mute point, but i would be comfortable if gregg/perez/motte made up plans a b and c for next years closer role.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
by Dave Barry on Oct 6, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
moot point
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Oct 6, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts on closer next year.....
Many of you know that I’m not crazy about going into next season with Perez and Motte as our ONLY closing options. I just think that both still have quite a bit of learning to do, and I really don’t want to see another season go by where I say to myself, “Self, if he had just closed out a few more games, we’d be in the playoffs.” I want options.
While I’d love to have a K-Rod, or to a lesser extent, a guy like Fuentes, I realize that financially that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Well, I guess if we were to be very active in the trade market, and we could acquire some other pieces (ie, SS) that were young and cheap, at the end of the day, if we’re sitting there and bullpen is our only hole, I could possibly justify spending a big chuck of change on a closer then, but I doubt that happens.
I see two possibilities to bringing in either another closer, or just some other closing options, without overpaying. One is via trade. I’m not sure who all might be available this way, but Gregg (who was mentioned above) would be one option. We could either go get another relatively young guy, or we could trade for an older, more experienced guy signed for a couple of years, which would allow Perez/Motte to take over fulltime within a season or two.
The second possibility would just be to bring back a guy like Izzy (IF healthy), and sign another solid MR or two. Upgrade the entire pen, and then have at least a 3rd, experienced option in Izzy to close. I know alot of folks want Izzy gone, but facts are facts…..when healthy, he’s a top of the line closer. He’ll also likely take a 1 year deal, which would open up the roster the following year for Perez and/or Motte to close fulltime.
I think the Izzy option is the most likely, and is probably my #1 choice, unless we acquire a young, cheap SS via trade. If we do that, and we don’t make any other moves on offense, or at least, none that tie up significant payroll, I’d love to see us spend some money on some shortterm solutions for the pen.
The end.
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 6, 2008 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Izzy
If Izzy were to come back for what Springer made this year, I’d be all for it. Otherwise, I start looking elsewhere or I roll the dice with the kids. The team has some potential in the bullpen spots, but has no potential help in the middle infield — that is where money needs to be spent in the offseason. Tying up cash in a 38 year old reliever who’s been hurt two of the last three years isn’t a great idea, imo.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 6, 2008 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Izzy has said himself.....
That he isn’t looking for a big contract, just something with some incentives. He won’t cost much, especially to STL since he likes it here, wants to be here I’d imagine, and knows if he is 100%, he’ll get to close.
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 6, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Incentive laden deal
Try this on for size:
$2 million base salary, with $250,000 bonuses for 20, 25, 30, and 35 saves. He would also get a $500,000 bonus for hitting 300 career saves and $150,000 bonuses for each of 40, 50, 60, and 70 innings.
For example, if he’s healthy and puts up 2007 numbers, he’d make $2M + (3 * $250,000) + $500,000 + (3 * $150,000) = $3,700,000.
If he’s not healthy, he might hit the 40 innings bonus and he’d only cost us, at most, $2.65M next season.
I think that’s more than a fair compensation package if that’s what he’s looking for.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 6, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I may be wrong...
but I don’t think incentives can be stats-based. They can be based on IP’d, awards, All star appearances and things of that ilk…maybe save opp’s?…again I may be wrong.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They can be stats-based
just not performance-based. Innings pitched and plate appearances are about as far as they go. The only incentives you ever see are for stuff like making the All-Star Game. It garnered Ludwick a big $100,000 or something.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 6, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Point being...
they can’t be based on saves right? Saves are “performance” driven.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How come?
That a players’ union thing?
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 6, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assume...
don’t know why, but it is what it is. It’s funny that incentives are based on things largely out of the players control…awards, all star appearances, IP, AB PA…but can’t be based on stats which the player does control.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that's the case...
then how do the Yankees get away with paying A-Rod for his home run milestones? Those are performance statistics.
I think you can do it, I just don’t think that many guys sign them because they’re giving up salary leverage by doing that. But for a guy who’s coming back from injury and in the twilight of his career it makes a lot more sense for both the club and the player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 6, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, you can't.
MLB rule 3 (b) (5): “No contract shall be approved if it contains a bonus for playing, pitching or batting skill or if it provides for the payment of a bonus contingent on the standing of the signing club at the end of the championship season.”
Pretty black and white. The Yankees get away with it here because they are calling them “historical milestones” instead of home runs. Basically, they are getting away with it because they are the Yankees.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 6, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Toss 40(?) million in the MLB coffers and they should get away with some stuff...
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 6, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marketing agreement
- re-signed as a free agent 12/13/07
- $10M signing bonus ($2M paid upon approval, $1M paid each Jan. 15, 2009-2013, $3M paid Jan. 15, 2014)
- 08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
- $30M marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record)
- Texas obligated to fund $9M as part of deferred compensation provision in previous contract (to be paid with interest in $3M increments in 2008, 2009 & 2010)
by StLHugo on Oct 6, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unions, as a rule, don't like pay for performance.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 6, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that would make too much sense.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Oct 6, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No it wouldn't
Too easy to manipulate.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 6, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it is that easy to manipulate performance....
Then why don’t we get all of our players to manipulate their performance so we win the world series. I would MUCH rather have an incentive based upon my batting average, OPS, OBP, WHIP, etc…. rather than on innings pitched (which can be fixed by management) or All-Star appearances (wich are arbitrarily chosen by fans). If you perform, you get paid. What’s wrong with that?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Oct 6, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand your reasoning...
are you saying that saves accumulated would be easier to manipulate than innings pitched? I would totally disagree with that point. You can manipulate innings pitched just by not pitching that particular player. Keeping him from pitching is no different than keeping him from pitching in save situations. If he’s coming back, he’s gotta get first shot at the closer role. If he’s healthy he’ll easily hit those incentives, if he’s not, then he doesn’t hit them, but might hit the innings incentives as a set-up or seventh inning guy.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 6, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
What I am saying is that rate stats are very hard to manipulate by management. They are a direct measure of your performance. Why not base most contracts on something like that?
I believe that injury fear, not statistical manipulation, is the cause for the current contract structure.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Oct 6, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you
I was asking Hardcore what he meant by “easy to manipulate”
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 6, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont want to pay you
so i sit you to keep you from hitting certain milestones
by FunkeeC on Oct 6, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HL never responded, but I think I know what he means.
Imagine two cases.
Albert Pujols gets a new contract and he has a performance incentive. If he hits forty homers, he gets an extra mil. AP comes up in the ninth inning with men on second and third, two outs. Cards are behind by one. So all he needs is a good single to score a run. Instead of hitting for contact, he swings for the fences and strikes out.
Jason Isringhausen signs a one year, $400K contract, with $2M incentive for getting 30 saves. Isringhausen enters a game in the ninth, cards lead 6-2, nobody on. Isringhausen walks the bases loaded, walks in two runs, then gets three outs.
That’s why there aren’t incentive based contracts. Even if the intent of the player was not to manipulate the game in favor of his contract, it is, as the lawyers say, the appearance of impropriety. There are no incentive based contracts because even things which are generally good for your team (saves, HR) can be inappropriate in the wrong context. How many people do we already complain about for bulking up their stats? Imagine what we would hear if there was a direct financial incentive.
by tom s. on Oct 7, 2008 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
bit of a strawman?
Are those examples a bit extreme, especially the save one? I am not disagreeing that there could conceivably be incentives to manipulate, but one could add other measures to somewhat counter. So for your HR case also add RBIs, and for the save case add era or ba. When individual performance measures are largely correlated with team performance, I still don’t see while they shouldn’t be used.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Oct 7, 2008 5:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's total strawman...
I wouldn’t necessarily use counting stats for hitters, but using saves for Izzy makes sense — he’s only going to hit those marks if he’s healthy and being effective for the ballclub. I don’t see the drawbacks from that at all, and, as is pointed out below, you can’t pitch yourself into a save situation. Counting saves is no different than counting innings pitched, imo.
You’re assuming that every player would be out there gunning for themselves if they were playing on incentive laden contracts. We already have plenty of guys out there that do that already — especially when they’re in a contract year. I don’t see the harm in it, especially when we’re talking about a sport that’s played by 9 individuals acting as a team.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 7, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the other side
is that The Ownership, in all its evil plotting glory, could pull someone who was about to reach a performance goal, as already is rumored to happen with plate appearance goals. That’s the side I’ve always heard.
by DanUpBaby on Oct 7, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check the save rule on the Izzy example
The two possibilities for a 3-out and/or 9th-inning-or-later save (IIRC, off the top of my head):
1. Pitcher enters the game at the beginning of the inning with a lead of no more than three runs.
2. Pitcher enters the game at any point in the inning with the tying run on base, at the plate, or on deck.
The example you mentioned above is not a save situation.
I do remember an anecdote (from a Bill James book, I think) about a pitcher from the White Sox who had a clause in his contract (or maybe just an agreement with the manager and/or owner) that he would be fined if he exceeded 100 walks for the season. When got to over 95, he would just hit the batter if he got a 3-ball count on him. That’s another reason not to include performance incentives
That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.
by Solanus on Oct 7, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To put your save terminology into real simple to understand terms
A pitcher cannot pitch himself into a save situation.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Oct 7, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Funny you should mention Springer...
he’s the perfect answer to Sooner’s riddle. He can close for half a season while Perez sets up…or just be insurance should Perez and Motte not be “ready”. If we resign Springer, Perez and Motter are not our only “options” at closer.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Springer puts a lot of stress on the other relievers
because of his one-inning-every-other-day regimen. They’ve only got one multi-innings guy coming back for sure (McClellan). I like Springer, but Perez/Motte/Springer/Franklin is lot of righthanded one-inning guys.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 6, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
he pitched consecutive days 14 times last year; 3 straight days twice. I think he’s a great bullpen option and could be capable of closing. An OPS against of about .800 vs. lefties for the last four years (under .480 vs. righties) might be reason for concern, but as a half a season or backup plan closer I think he makes sense.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree but I don't think that tony does
he had lots of opportunities at the end of the season to use Springer, and went back to Franklin. I think Springer could do it, w/ Perez there to supplement him, but it doesn’t seem as though Tony thinks of him as an option.
by chuckb on Oct 6, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes no sense to me...
Springer seems like a TLR kinda guy. Proven veteran. Perhaps the fact that he actually IS capable perturbs Tony…to conventional, perhaps?
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Springer's stats last year
IMO – A player’s probability to repeat a previous year’s performance, espcially any “endurance” stat, decreases at a much more dramatic rate after they pass 40. So, looking at Springer’s workload last year is not as probable an indicator of what he would be capable of doing in 2009 as it would have been 5-6 years ago.
Just a thought.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Oct 6, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He did it in 2007...
eventually it will fall off, but one-inning relievers tend to age better than most players. Maybe you’re right, but I’ve got a lot more confidence in Springer than I do Izzy or for that matter Franklin.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he seems to like springer
just not in the closer’s role. Maybe b/c he likes to use him for just a batter or two, and you need to be able to get through 3-5 to close? I don’t know.
by chuckb on Oct 6, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
we can still use Springer in those high-leverage situations, rather than closer.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Over his time
with the Cardinals, Springer has entered the game with leverages almost exactly neutral. It’s bothered me for a while. It would be one thing if Tony was doing what you’re suggesting, but he isn’t.
by haltz on Oct 6, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
he should, cuz he can
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 7, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Springer just doesn't like closing
Who knows.
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 6, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't izzy want to go somewhere he can close(so he can pick up 300)?
If motte or perez step up than izzy probably doesn’t get a save the whole season
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
by Bahamaredbird on Oct 6, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just flat don't trust TLR to be objective
about Izzy’s health and readiness. If he can throw at all he will be the closer. Even before he was hurt this year his stuff was pretty much gone.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ya know
izzy and perez aren’t the only players that have closing experience. if the saves label makes you into a valuable commodity maybe braden looper should be re-signed and re-assigned in the off season.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
by Dave Barry on Oct 6, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
not gonna happen
he is do for a big pay day starting, some one will give him big coin for starting
"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell
by elirock83 on Oct 6, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
more money for an average starter than an average closer
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
by Bahamaredbird on Oct 6, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This line:
“So the Cardinals need to ask themselves something, heading into spring training, and it’s not "Is Chris Perez ready to close?” It’s this: “Is Chris Perez $10 million worth of not ready to close?”"
Reminds me of iRobot. “My responses are limited, you must ask the right questions…”
That is definitely the right question. I say that a new closer is definitey not worth $10M more than Perez. He could be awful, but then we’d still have Motte. I’d say spend the $ on a MIF.
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on Oct 6, 2008 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree
we need to take care of other things first, and roll the dice with Perez/Motte/other internal option
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carp for closer
If we are lucky enough to get him healthy, let’s put him in a role where he might have a chance to stay that way. Make him part of a closer by committee with Perez/Motte.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you know what
I was thinking about posting that same thing… I just figured that it might not be a good idea. but if he can’t get through more than a couple of innings, he just might make one of the best closers in the majors.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hasten to add re: Fuentes
his cost is much more than the $10 M per year price tag. He’s a type-A free agent. He’d cost our first round pick as well — # 16 or 17 overall. That has considerable value in addition to Fuentes’ price tag.
by chuckb on Oct 6, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How is it that...
we all know this, but forget it until someone brings it up?
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great to have you, DanUp
I always enjoyed your work at Getupbaby. Look forward to having you as a regular here (though I don’t actually have time to digest today’s post just yet).
by DCGreg on Oct 6, 2008 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fuentes...
Don’t count on anything resembling a reasonable contract for this guy. He made 3 consecutive all-star games before this season and neither he nor his agent (nor the rockies with their trade demands) have forgotten about them.
Nick Stavinoah = John Gall
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Oct 6, 2008 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
History for Free Agent closers
Thought I’d ask before spending too much work time on the question. Has a review been done recently on the success rate of signing free agent closers? I know that the O’s made a good decision to let BJ Ryan go and use Chris Ray. Both ended up with injury issues, but from a financial standpoint, the O’s ended up being able to use the money elsewhere to continue their decline.
Flip side of the question. I did a search on baseball-reference on pitchers who recorded 30 or more saves during their first three professional seasons between 1998 and 2008. The list is surprisingly short. Only 12 pitchers in the last 11 years fit the category, with 8 of these are in the last five seasons. 3 of the younger ones (Street, Ray and Accardo) missed significant time the season after recording 30 saves. The list did not include three Japanese players who were in their 30’s when they started their MLB career.
Let’s hope that Perez adds him name to the list next year but not at the price of hitting the DL in 2010.
by ubeddie on Oct 6, 2008 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
close thee door
I think a cheap deal with izzy is the way to go. Give him a clause to up his $‘s and use him to groom perez, if izzy can’t hack it then you give the job to perez, if he can’t give it to motte. my pair of penny’s
"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell
by elirock83 on Oct 6, 2008 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
a good read
Almost makes me feel sorry for the cubs. Almost
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/10/5/628774/elegy-to-the-2008-cubs
the nytimes article they link is pretty good too.
"The two most important things in life: good friends and a strong bullpen." - Bob Gibson
by Bahamaredbird on Oct 6, 2008 1:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i read that yesterday
and i thought it’s all a little ridiculous, especially if you dare enter the comments section…
by UNCDubya on Oct 6, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
more from espn
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 6, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's all crap
like I’m supposed to believe they don’t care anymore. They’re the most masochistic group of people on the planet. There’s no way they can give up on their cubbies.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Oct 6, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
They say they have given up on the Cubs right now, but you know they don’t mean it. Cub fans will again be saying “Wait ’til next year!” before the start of Winter Meetings.
by cardsgirl95 on Oct 6, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"In normal times I'd probably have deleted 2/3 of the posts all of you have made, but under the circumstances I'm leaving all of them"
by Phizzle on Oct 6, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personally
I find it hilarious that they want the team blown up… kinda hard to do when half of your fielders are tied to full no-trade clauses… Makes me appreciate Bill Dewitt and his cost-conscious approach to building this team (insert blind cautious guarded hopeful optimism that he actually is)
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Oct 6, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
giving out the no-trade clauses and goofy contracts are all fine and good
if you’re main goal is to win the World Series now and damn tomorrow. But when right now becomes a big stinking pile of crap, then things look slightly different.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Oct 6, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Izzy, but maybe not with incentives
I’ve been a proponent of bringing Izzy back for 1 year IF he’s healthly and have been thinking that an incentive based deal is the way to do. I started thinking today that maybe biting the bullet on a higher base is the smarter option.
Given his propensity to breaking down and fighting through the pain, I’m starting to think that the fewer incentives he has pushing him the better. Sign him to a higher base, let him know that if he’s healthy he’s going to have every option to pick up #300 but if he’s hurt or not performing Perez or Motte will step in. If we set it up so that he’s got a couple million riding on his performance, he’ll likely keep going when he shouldn’t and potentially sour the transition to our long term (hopefully!) closer while costing us games.
To me the incentive contract lowers the team’s financial risk, but increases the performance risk. Since we likely won’t be talking about tens of millions, I’d rather focus on lowering the performance risk.
by birdo rojo on Oct 6, 2008 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good point
the incentives might make him throw his arm off!
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Isringhausen. . . not that there's anything wrong with that.
my father was a hasbeen closer! i’m a hasbeen closer! look, you wanna go to a diamond so i can prove it to you? do you want me to blow a save right now? let’s go! c’mon on! let’s go baby! c’mon!
welcome aboard Dan. looks like you’ll fit in juuuust fine.
just say no to Fuentes i think i’ll add that to my sig
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Oct 6, 2008 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Welcome!
Hard to believe you’re my age — when I hear “fantastic baseball analyst,” I don’t think of someone that’s my age.
I’m also an English major, by the way. Currently slogging through Emerson…
by mojowo11 on Oct 6, 2008 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you may say that i'm a dreamer
but all i want for christmas is raffy furcal…he would score 6 million runs batting in front of rasmus, pujols, and ludwick
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 6, 2008 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's two Christmas wishes
one, Furcal. Two, Rasmus actually plays a single inning for the St. Louis Cardinals next year (or ever for that matter).
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 6, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if you say it enough
it will come true….that’s how it works, isn’t it?
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 6, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'ts not a lie, if you believe it's true
george coooostanza
Raffy’s been hurt an awful lot. if we get him, i hope it’s an incentive laden one season deal with options for more years if he’s healthy.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Oct 6, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not intimately familiar with his injury history
but I see that prior to this year he had over 600 PAs six years in a row. What exactly constitutes “hurt an awful lot”?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal
Rasmus
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
Pitcher
Lopez/Miles
Yum.
by mojowo11 on Oct 6, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
triple yum
if you just quit the batting the pitcher 8th shenanigans
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm serious.
With Pujols in the lineup we project to score MORE runs with the pitcher batting 8th.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Oct 6, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols
needs to bat fourth. Put Luddy in the three hole.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then Pujols sees a LOT fewer at-bats in a season.
The #4 guy sees fewer AB’s than the #3 guy. Moving Pujols down the lineup lessens the number of times that he comes to the plate, therefore causing pitchers to crap themselves much less frequently than before.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Oct 6, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
really?
that many fewer? what if he has the potential to drive in more runs?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NL average #3 was 714 PAs, #4 699
Of course Luddy is better than the average #3 but you’re still talkin 10 games where Pujols gets one fewer AB.
What if he has the potential to drive in more runs? What if he has the potential to score fewer runs?
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 6, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so many what ifs...
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 7, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't make sense.....
Putting the guy that is going to get on base less in front of the guy that will get on base more.
Luddy, Glaus, and Ankiel are RBI guys. I don’t want any of them getting more PA’s then AP.
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 6, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
then why not bat pujols 2nd?
or leadoff?
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 6, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True statement IMO about the batting 2nd deal...
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 6, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't mind him batting 2nd
especially if we continue with the batting pitcher 8th
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There has been a lot of discussion here
lately about the impact on both the team and on Pujols batting 3rd/4th. Essentially, I would trade Pujols having 10-15 PAs less (if he plays all 162 games) if I could get rid of the 59 times this season he batted in the first inning with nobody on and two out.
I don’t think there is a rational argument that can be made that batting Pujols 4th is bad for him. There might be a case that it would be bad for the team, but I haven’t heard one yet.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about leading off the 2nd inning
with no one on and getting IBB a lot.
I think that is the key. By batting third, he is up in the first inning every game.
by OCCardsFan on Oct 6, 2008 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but an IBB/UIBB with none out
is a pretty good thing. The goal is to score runs, not to get albert RBI’s, after all.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 6, 2008 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about the nine times
he was IBB in the first inning with nobody on and didn’t come around to score a single time?
I would rather guarantee that, if he comes up in the first inning, there will be men on base. In 2008 he was IBBed exactly 0 times in 319 PAs with nobody on base. Think about it for a minute. He had 319 PAs with nobody on base for the season and 59 of them were with nobody on and two out in the first.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It makes more sense.....
To bat him 2nd, then 4th. That I agree with.
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 6, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
-1
....my quick smells like french toast...
by mstreeter06 on Oct 6, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fuentes would almost certainly be a waste of money
same goes for K-Rod. it’s just not the right market this year to find a good closer. it would be much more advisable to go with potential than with the “hey, this is what you can get this season” mentality. if perez/motte don’t work out, there’s always the mid-season trade that can shore up the bullpen. the bp already looks like it will be a different beast next season with the potential departure of izzy, the successful return of Tyler Johnson, etc. we really need to fix the mif hydra first, then figure out what to do after that.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 3:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kinney
needs to prove he can stay healthy, but he looked like a closer when he got in the games.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
it’s exciting to have him back (if healthy)
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like the Wizard has a new job...
On a completely unrelated but humorous note (not trying to hijack) this was on MLB.com’s front page as a headline:
Baseball Fever.... Catch it!
by skcabrozar on Oct 6, 2008 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
terrible
that is completely unacceptable.
by adiueordie on Oct 6, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I give up...
whats so completely unacceptable? What am I missing?
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Oct 6, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
says white sox manager ozzie smith...not ozzie guillen
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 6, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder
Did Dick Stockton write this? :)
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Oct 6, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nevermind...
ha… got it
SlamalamaJackADongWick cares very little about your draft pick standing-by gdm426
by FredbirdisaDork on Oct 6, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't feel bad -
it took me awhile to get it too.
by cardsgirl95 on Oct 6, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it did me too
to the point where I wrote up a comment saying “What am I missing?”
But, i knew something had to be there, and on about the 4th read through, I saw it.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on Oct 6, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draft order...
is out. Cards go at #19 – a little lower than I was thinking.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 3:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Really hoping.....
We can get a really good, young, hopefully HS SP spect.
Of course, you just have to see how things play out. More often than not, it’s best to take the best available player.
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 6, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I have no idea who it might be, but that is the right way to go. Now if a college MIF that is as polished a hitter as Wallace is available….
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not at 19
we were lucky wallace was available at 13 this year.
agree on the “take the best player” strategy.
by adiueordie on Oct 6, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am usually all for HS pitchers
and I will be ecstatic if we get one, but I am kinda hoping Strasburg starts asking for too much and falls. The Cards love their college pitchers, and if they draft a great college pitcher that can hit 100 on the gun with control, I won’t be too upset with them.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Oct 6, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been reading getupbaby.net
and liked the section on Glaus being streaky, and about Pujols being uncannily machine-like; but missed the evaluations on Ank, Luddy, etc. to see how streaky they were…. or did I miss that part?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 5:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you haven't been reading far enough, I guess
One of the, uh, best parts about Get Up Baby is that I only wrote about half the posts in every series before losing interest.
by DanUpBaby on Oct 6, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sounds like what I would do if I had a blog
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 7, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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