A Trade Question

by The Gottfather on Oct 3, 2008 11:39 PM EDT

Hope this comes out right. This is my first real FanPost.

While everyone else seems to be aiming pretty high for starters (Cain, Greinke, Lowe, etc.), I was wondering about some smaller names from teams that might be looking to deal off guys.

I've wondered for awhile what the rest of VEB thought of talking to Tampa Bay about Andy Sonnanstine. The problem here would obviously be what to offer the Rays. I'm sure a team such as theirs could use some bullpen help (a category in which we actually have depth) as well as a backup catcher. I know they are pretty deep as it is, but I wonder if Ankiel would be someone they would think of. He could presumably fill in for Cliff Floyd as the lefty DH/ OF option.

The reason I say Sonnanstine is that he's still relatively cheap and the team will need to find space in the next few seasons for David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Jake McGee and Wade Davis. Sonnanstine's the least projectable of all these arms, but would seem to fit the Cardinals mold. He pounds the zone and doesn't walk many. He threw 193.1 IP last season striking out 124 while only walking 37. He does give up his fair share of hits, but I think he could do pretty well for the team. Another option out of Tampa would be Edwin Jackson, but I have a feeling he's a little more fragile (not a good mix with LaRussa/Duncan) than Sonny.

The other team I was thinking of would be the Boston Red Sox. They have Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden who all seem to be in the running for the fifth spot in the rotation in the next few years. Here the answer for what to offer jumps right out at you. Mike Timlin is getting older and a right handed reliever would seem to fit the bill along with any type of catching help. I have a feeling the Rangers will be calling Theo Epstein this offseason as is, but why don't the Cards jump on it and check out for themselves?

With all the bigger names flying around for offseason possibilities I've been pondering what the rest of the community thought about these two teams and their needs as well as our own.

2 recs | Comment 54 comments

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The only problem I see right now...

Is that all season we here at VEB sit on our computers and complain about how awful the bullpen has been and now that it’s time to go pick up a SP, we talk about how deep the pen is and how readily we can trade out of it to get SP. I don’t get it.

by stlfan on Oct 4, 2008 11:12 AM EDT 0 recs

well, to be fair

i think a lot of people are assuming the bullpen will not look very similar next year. people complained most about izzy, franklin-as-closer, flores, villone-against-righties, etc. we’ve also seen the emergence of perez, motte, the return of kinney, mclellan (who may end up in the rotation) and we’ve seen a little bit of other possible young guys like boggs, parisi, worrell, etc. so as bad as our bullpen was it could still end up a strength with the right usage and the right amount of change over from over-relied-upon veterans.

by mattybobo on Oct 4, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Parisi had Tommy John I believe

At the very least he had a damaged UCL.

Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist

by joker24 on Oct 5, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

also

if we got more starting pitching, we would have the option of sending some of our current starters to the bullpen, except for Wainwright and Lohse.

go rays

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Where?

If you assume that we have the following:

Perez
Motte
K-Mac
one of Springer/Izzy
Thompson
And two lefties

We don’t have any room left. And that is assuming we don’t bring back both Izzy and Springer, or sign another righty.

by SoonerfanTU on Oct 6, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

isn't Welly a lefty?

go rays

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 6, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Welley only acts like a lefty

he throws very much like a righty

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Oct 6, 2008 6:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

I have seen the article that jackson is supposed to be available

I think it would be nice to get some sp depth anyway we can. I like Brian Bannister, I haven’t seen anything that says he is available or not. Sonnanstine would be a good pick-up he should be able do good here imo.

by from First to Third on Oct 4, 2008 4:56 PM EDT 0 recs

I'd have to say no

to Brian Bannister. He is Jeff Suppan except that 1) he made the big leagues 4-5 years later because of lack of talent and 2) has not thrown 200 innings in a season and may not if you are a team in the pennant race. Bannister also fell of considerably this year from his rookie year. Sonnanstine, on the other hand, made huge improvements this year and I would see him making more in the future.

by stlfan on Oct 4, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'd love to get sonnanstine,

and it’s been said that the rays are very deep in starting pitching. They’ve been said to be in need of an OF, and if they part with Crawford or some others (isn’t Baldelli’s contract up?), yeah they’d be in need I imagine. We could send Mather or Schu maybe, but it’s also possible that we could work out something bigger giving up Ludwick or Ankiel for Sonnanstine along with something else (MI?).

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 4, 2008 5:39 PM EDT 0 recs

If you were the Rays

would you really give up a good, young starting pitcher w/ 5 years left under the team’s control, for Joe Mather or Skip Schumaker? If the roles were reversed, we would want the Cards to make that trade. Sonnastine’s worth a lot more than a platoon OF. Now, would they do Ludwick or Ankiel for Sonnastine and Zobrist? Hmmm. What if we threw in Mortensen?

by chuckb on Oct 4, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

mather breaking his wrist

really hurt us this year, much more than just forcing us to play kennedy in the OF. i really think he’s got a ton of potential, so much that I’d hesitate to give him up even to get zobrist or sonanstine… It would have been really nice to be able to showcase him out there in September, because I’m afraid we’re going to end up forced to trade him for a lot less than he is worth.

the enemy's gate is down.

by SleepyCA on Oct 4, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

agree

+1
He was better when a regular and a few more dingers in Sept from Big Joe would have upped his value. If we are serious about making a run for Matt Holliday, one has to think Mather is tossed into the package. The guy who I think we need to trade whose value has been greatly damaged by injury is C. Duncan. We need him to mash in spring training … but I wonder if the family connection will tie JMo’s hand to an extent in regards to C. Duncan.

by jjray on Oct 5, 2008 8:59 AM EDT up 0 recs

I don't see THAT much potential.....

I think he’d be a right handed Chris Duncan at best, well, with better defense. That is a solid player, no doubt, but not something that is untradeable.

by SoonerfanTU on Oct 5, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up 0 recs

he doesn't strike out nearly as often

as Duncan. Basically, they are very similar and I think he’d make a good part of a platoon. Still, however, that makes him a platoon OF who isn’t nearly as valuable as a young SS. In the AL, he may have more value as a LF, RF, 1B, DH sort of guy but he still lacks the stripes to get us a good young SS alone.

And I’d trade him for a good, young SS in a heartbeat. He has a lot of power potential but that’s not as valuable as a good, young SS. He might become a 30 homer guy but Zobrist had a .380 or something OBP this year and could provide 15 homers per year from the SS position.

by chuckb on Oct 5, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

well, "matt holliday" is basically a right-handed chris duncan w/better defense...

playing in a hitters park. Mather is a late bloomer, like Duncan, and like holliday – take a look at Holliday’s minor league stats through age 23 – holliday had a .705 OPS while repeating AA in his age 23 season. All 3 had breakout seasons at age 23 (duncan) or 24 (mather, holliday).

Holliday is undoubtedly the better hitter right now, but i’m not sure that mather won’t be as good in 2 or 3 years if given the chance to play. Heck, mather was on pace for 36 HR’s in 650 PA’s in 2008- and he’ll cost 400K until 2010.

the enemy's gate is down.

by SleepyCA on Oct 5, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

You think Mather.....

Has a chance to be as good as Holliday? That is your opinion, so I can’t really say anything other than that I disagree, but is there anybody out there…..a fellow fan on this board, a scout, or any other service that has predicted anywhere near that level of success for Mather?

Because I certainly don’t see it. No way, with that swing, Mather will ever be as consistent as Holliday.

by SoonerfanTU on Oct 5, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'll go with it...

with the caveat that Holliday is not himself away from Coors. He’s still a good hitter, but nowhere near as good. Mather is a good athlete and he’s patient at the plate…not to mention he’s HUGE. I think he has a CHANCE to be every bit as good as Holliday, though I wouldn’t say I think he will be. I do think he could be much better than a platoon OFer…he hits both well, and I think actually has shown a reverse split ala Ludwick.

by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 12:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

I am on the Mather bandwagon

From what I’ve seen so far both offensively and defensively, I really like Mather. I was not too happy at a couple of pitch hits he had, but he’ll learn to lay off breaking balls. I would like to see him in a platoon next year.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Oct 6, 2008 12:38 AM EDT up 0 recs

I looked up the numbers to slam the idea of mather being even remotely close to Holliday,

and oddly enough Mather does seem to have a pretty good skillset, contact, discipline, power wise. On the other hand, they are only two years apart, and Holliday is actually still improving and has been a ML contributor for years now, whereas Mather is starting much later and has no such track record. Potential, yes, but I was never advocating we trade for Holliday anyway, so I can continue to choose neither of the propositions above.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 6, 2008 1:43 AM EDT up 0 recs

also keep in mind

mather wasn’t born until late July, so the “b-r” season ages for him are pretty much +1 when compared to any other player.

the enemy's gate is down.

by SleepyCA on Oct 6, 2008 4:13 AM EDT up 0 recs

yes, he has a chance...

What chance? 30? 50? 70%? is the better question. Looking at Hollidays Milb stats, through where Joe Mather is in his career, who could have predicted that holliay would be as good as he is, now? I certainly couldn’t have. I don’t know of any system that could have predicted it, based on his pre-age 24 minor league performance (or age 25 MLB performance). Feel free to enlighten me, if you can find something.

mather has a better body than holliday; he was drafted much higher, he looks better, he (probably) bench presses more and runs faster. he definitely plays better defense; no one in their right mind would play Holliday in CF. Holliday came out of nowhere, as a 24yo, and starting pounding MLB pitching. Mather came out of nowhere as a 24yo and started pummeling AA and then AAA pitching (31 HR!!!), then got a callup the next year and did pretty well against MLB pitching as a part-time player. A .780 OPS (with a .255 BABIP) as a rookie is nothing to sneeze at.

My point is, lets not give away a potential “impact bat” for less than he is really worth. Mather had a good season in 2008 – he’d be a couple of wins better than Schu in ’09, even wasted as a leadoff man, and could really surprise us in a couple of years.

the enemy's gate is down.

by SleepyCA on Oct 6, 2008 3:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think Joe Mather has an excellent chance

to be the equal of the REAL Matt Holliday. You know, the one that doesn’t play in the best hitters park in the league.

If you take Holliday’s career away numbers and normalize them for 650 PAs then he would average all of 19.7 HRs, 78.8 RBIs over a season with slash lines of .280/.348/.455/.803. I would bet money right now that Joe Mather will accomplish that much. If you want to be charitable and normalize 2008, his best road season of his career, then you get 24 HRs, 71 RBIs and slash lines of .308/.405/.486/.891. Not unreasonable to think Joe has a chance of that in his best year. He will likely not be as good on BA and OBP, but probably better at ISO. The one area he probably won’t match is SBs. I was very surprised to see that Holliday had 28 SBs in 30 attempts.

It looks like Holliday is a fine LF, but Mather is no slouch either.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Oct 6, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

You're comparing

A guy in Mather (who I love as well) with 133 career at bats and an OPS+ of 102 to a guy with 2656 career at bats and a worst season of OPS+ at 103. His normal OPS+ is 131 with the last three years averaging out at 142.

C’mon. Really?

by stlfan on Oct 7, 2008 12:47 AM EDT up 0 recs

mather had an expected BABIP of roughly .320

and an actual BABIP of .255. He could easily have hit for a .900ish OPS over his 133 AB’s, if he just wasn’t so unlucky.

He probably isn’t that good, but he could be…

the enemy's gate is down.

by SleepyCA on Oct 7, 2008 2:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

Interesting to note that Mather's

102 OPS+ this season is essentially the same as Hollidays rookie OPS+ which garnered him NL ROY. He followed up with OPS+ of 114, 137, 150 in successive years.

I don’t know the exact formula of how OPS+ is park adjusted, but I still think Holliday’s road numbers are within Mather’s potential reach. I can’t guarantee he will get there, or even get the opportunity, but you have to admit their profiles up to this point in Mather’s career are pretty similar.

In limited action this year, with a very low BABIP, Mather put up a .780 OPS which is pretty close to Holliday’s career road average.

FWIW, the discussion here is speculation on whether Mather could ever be as good as Holliday. I am not saying the numbers that Mather has put up “prove” anything, just reminding the posters here for the severalth time that Matt Holliday is a creation of Coors Field and any number of players who just aren’t particularly great could put up impressive numbers there. See Preston Wilson and Vinny Castilla. I can’t think of a single player who has played a significant number of games at Coors and then put up similar numbers anywhere else.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Oct 7, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up 0 recs

If we can project Mather at around that level

Then doesn’t that make both Ankiel and Ludwick expendable within the next two years? We could probably score a couple of good middle infielders for either of those guys, or one really good shortstop. You’re going to get more value for Ankiel and Ludwick than you will for Mather or Schumaker, so wouldn’t trading one or both of those guys be the best case situation?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Oct 7, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Disclaimer

While I think it is reasonable to say that Mather has a chance to be at that level, I don’t want anyone to think I am projecting or predicting that level of accomplishment. I am just saying it is within the realm of the possible.

To your question, I would much rather trade Ankiel than Ludwick. Ludwick is under team control for the next three years. I would prefer to trade Ank or Schu, maybe even both depending on the value. Any Ludwick trade would have to be just a ridiculous haul.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Oct 7, 2008 3:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes, it does mean Ank and Lud are expendable,

in addition, both are injury risks coming off of career years, and I am absolutely in on selling on one or both of them high. Between Mather, Rasmus, Barton, Schu, and our AAA and below, those two present much more opportunity for sale than for keeps.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 8, 2008 7:22 AM EDT up 0 recs

Just curious

If you think Lud had a career year, what numbers would you expect him to post next year?

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Oct 8, 2008 9:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

.270/.340/.500 -ish

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 8, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, but...

Mather did it on a cup o’ joe 133 ab whereas Holliday played in 120+ games and had 400 ABs.

by stlfan on Oct 7, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

OK, but...

Most people would say it is easier to get in a groove when you play on a regular basis. Plus, Holliday had a .654 OPS away from Coors and Mather played half his games in the fourth toughest hitters’ park in the NL. Away from Busch III Mather put up an .871 OPS. Mather was asked to be a substitute, he was asked to pinch hit, and he was asked to play five different positions. Holliday just trotted out to LF everyday.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Oct 7, 2008 10:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

even more than that

it’s a LOT harder to have a .255 BABIP with a 21% line drive rate over 400 AB’s than it is 133.

the enemy's gate is down.

by SleepyCA on Oct 7, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah

If Joey Bombs could hit in the general proximity of .300 he would be a stud. Better than Holliday at 1/25 the price.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Oct 8, 2008 1:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

you guys, stop it

all this talk is making me drool at the prospect of a kick-ass young cheap outfield of rasmus, mather, and daryl jones in the next couple years. all this possible awesomeness is gonna put a dent in my realistic expectations.

by mattybobo on Oct 8, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up 0 recs

Rays don't really need bullpen

Their only main weakness is also one of ours: middle infield. They don’t really need much of anything at all. I think the best deal we could make with them would be centered around us giving them prospects. If we’re getting a young pitcher like Sonnanstine or Jackson in return, I wouldn’t mind handing over a few hitting prospects, even if they’re good.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Oct 4, 2008 6:05 PM EDT 0 recs

I have to disagree

On the fact that they don’t really need to upgrade their MI at all. The Rays seem content to use Iwamura and Bartlet up the middle…lets face it, Bartlet and Iwamura may not be the sexy offensive players such as Utely and Rollins are, but they are definitely more than solid defensively and provide lots of speed. The Rays prefer this speed and defense to shadow that great pitching staff, and to compliment the power (and also good defenders) that they have on their corners.

That being said, they do have Reid Brignac waiting in the minors…so potentially Brignac, Bartlet, or Iwamura could be traded if need be. Also, players such as Aybar and Zobrist are on that roster, creating even more depth.

The Rays are set not only in their MI, but basically as an entire roster for a long time. They don’t need to upgrade anywhere; they have the minor league system to replace any free agents who leave this offseason (Fernando Perez in right replaces Floyd if he leaves). The Cards would be lucky if we could score some of their middle infield players, either prospects or current major leaguers.

by mtzxc on Oct 5, 2008 3:23 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'd say perez and Floyd and their RF and DH is basically their biggest weakness,

hence my previously suggested trade of Ankiel or Ludwick or possibly Schu or Mather plus.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 5, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Where is their bullpen strength?

If I’m not mistaken, their late inning guys this year were Percival, Al Reyes and Wheeler…not a lot of youth/potential in that group. Reyes and Percival may be pondering retirement this offseason. I think a young fireballer could entice them very much – unfortunately I think Perez and Motte are extremely important to next year’s (and the next five years) roster.

by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 12:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

They actually rely heavily on Grant Balfour and JP Howell, both of whom have been utter revelations this year compared to their previous skills.

Wheeler is solid though he seems to have lost significant velocity, Reyes has been mostly injured and not good this year, Troy Percival is there more for charisma than skills from the looks of things. They also run Trever Miller and Chad Bradford out there. Price is in the pen temporarily.

Bullpen help could be something they might be after, however there is also talk of converting Edwin Jackson and holding onto Sonnanstine for the rotation. There are also a few young arms in their system, so I’m not sure if they would be interested in other young unproven bullpen arms.

Also, I like and would prefer to keep Motte and YP. If we traded one of the two, I’m not sure they would value him high enough anyway.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 6, 2008 1:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

Exactly. They still have arms in the minors in Wade Davis (stud), Jake McGee (stud), and David Price (super stud). Not to mention the young arms already up the majors: Jason Hammel, JP Howell, Jeff Neimann, Mitch Talbot; and those veterans that have already been mentioned. The Rays have an abundance of young, good, quality pitching. They don’t need any more young arms…

by mtzxc on Oct 6, 2008 2:43 AM EDT up 0 recs

I like the comments so far

Seems like Ankiel would be the guy to base the deal off of with maybe a reliever and someone else?
Does anyone think we’d have a chance to deal with Boston? Their catching needs are a little more pressing with no minor leaguers looking like the answer. What does everyone think of Masterson or Bowden?

by The Gottfather on Oct 5, 2008 11:10 PM EDT 0 recs

I think the proper question is what do the Red Sox think of Masterson or Bowden

and I would bet my first born they think a lot of them. There is no way that Epstein deals a young pitcher for anything except a young pitcher this off season. Wakefield, Beckett, and some of their bullpen arms are question marks going into 2009. They will add pitchers instead of subtracting them. If you deal with them, you have to start with ML ready talent. They’d want Molina, not Anderson. They’d want Wainwright, not Perez or Motte. It’s the way they operate. They keep their young, except when they are excess. They don’t have excess pitchers right now.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Oct 5, 2008 11:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agree

Boston is a team you fire-sell to, not get ML-ready talent from.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 6, 2008 1:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

According to MLBTR...

the Marlins are looking for an outfielder with speed and defense…anybody know where they could find one? I’ve skipped through the roster, but I’m not schure I see anybody.

by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 12:46 AM EDT 0 recs

good one

It will be a bit sad to see him go, though.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Oct 6, 2008 12:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

They've needed a guy to play CF for years now,

maybe we can get Scott Olsen if we pay them too.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 6, 2008 1:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

They have that CF in Cameron Maybin. So selling them a CF for the future isn’t really an option. Now if they wanted another speedy defensive guy in right field…that’s a different story, but Skip has more value to teams wanting a defensive CF.

by mtzxc on Oct 6, 2008 2:45 AM EDT up 0 recs

Oh damn i must have become momentarily retarded,

and forgot about maybin.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 6, 2008 2:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

The article...

I referenced specifically said a corner ourfielder with speed and defense. Skip was great this year, and I think is a fringe major league starter – the LH’d half of a solid platoon…I’m not sure he can replicate this year’s numbers, and as we’ve all know OF is a position of strength in our system right now.

by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 8:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

dammit...

I hate mornings.

we’ve = we.

by cardzfanbub on Oct 6, 2008 8:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Don't forget

that Sonnanstine was one of the most unlucky pitchers this year with an ERA-FIP differential of .46. BABIP of .312 His peripherals are very good. If we could get him, and Zobrist for that matter, I’d be a happy camper. Do we sell high on Ludwick?

"Never judge a taco by its price" - Dr. Gonzo

by KennyWang on Oct 6, 2008 10:36 AM EDT 0 recs

Actually

His K/9 is kind of mediocre, but it was better than Lohse’s. I’ll just reiterate the fact that his k/BB ratio is so good because he only walked 37 batters this season. That’s the 8th best in all of Baseball for starters.

"Never judge a taco by its price" - Dr. Gonzo

by KennyWang on Oct 6, 2008 10:47 AM EDT up 0 recs