What is Manny worth? Pujols?

by BigJawnMize on Oct 3, 2008 8:50 AM EDT

So is Manny Rameriez worth his salary? I am starting to think that there is a justification to giving the man $20+ million for the next couple year. I am not saying that the Cardinals should do this, but I was interested in the Dodgers run production since Manny arrived. TBS flashed the Dodgers runs per game before and after Rameriez arrival. 4.2 runs per game before and 4.7 runs per game after. A half run a game over the course of a season is 80 runs. That is about 8 wins. If we take $3 million a win (which is the last figure I heard the Cardinals use as a baseline) that come out to a worth of $24million a year. I know this is kinda fast ansd loose with the numbers but I have been thinking of what Pujols will be worth at the end of his contract and $24 million is sounding more than reasonable to me.

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IMO

Is Manny worth his salary? Yes.

Is Manny worth 20+ Million over the next couple years? Probably not.

Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.

Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.

by Tackle Box on Oct 3, 2008 9:11 AM EDT 0 recs

You're not factoring in who he replaced

Manny effectively replaced Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre in the lineup — two of the WORST hitters in all of MLB this year. Hell — the team should be a quarter of a run better just by not playing those two players. Also, the acquisition of Blake allowed them to move DeWitt into a utility role, prevented them from having to play Hu at all, and solidified the lineup from the right side, something the Dodgers had struggled with at the beginning part of the season. Furcal came back and played well late too — and the Dodgers were pretty decent all year when he was in the lineup.

Manny had a lot of impact, but not half a run a game. Ethier played out of his mind the last 6 weeks of the season, Kemp finally came into his own as well. I think it’s much more of a combination of things than just picking up Manny Ramirez, as great as he’s been down the stretch.

If he puts up the slash line he’s put up the last two months over the course of an entire season, he’d be worth about $30 million a year, or more, but I think it’s safe to say that he’s not going to do that over the next 3-4 seasons. A season of that ilk we be on par with any Juiced Bonds season early in the decade.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Oct 3, 2008 10:35 AM EDT 0 recs

All that being said

I think the Dodgers should strongly consider signing him to a 2-3 year deal for around $20 million per year. They have the money to spend, and if they bring back Furcal, Manny, and Lowe, they’ll have a pretty damn good roster and a crazy good pitching staff of Lowe, Penny (assuming he’s healthy), Billingsley, Kuroda, and Kershaw. They have one of the better bullpen’s in the NL when everyone is healthy, and Jason Schmidt might actually make a comeback next year as well. If you’re the Dodgers and you can get Manny for $60 million over 3 years I think you have to do it.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Oct 3, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up 0 recs

good points.

a nice reminder that, not only is it very very difficult to really say a player “carried” his team for a siginificant stretch of time, but there was much more going on than just manny.

by mattybobo on Oct 3, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

Think Pujols...

I admit that I am bwing totally fast and loose with the numbers and that other players responded well to the addition of Manny. I made a totally Scot Boras type argument, but it si valid because this is the type of crap that agents use. It is a horribly difficault exercise to separate out the one individuals worth to a team. Gawd how long did it take James to develop win shares.

The point of the question though is generally I think Manny and Pujols are similar hitters. I am wondering if Manny’s next contract wil be the baseline that we start Pujols next contract with. Is that baseline $24 million?

by BigJawnMize on Oct 3, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

Manny is a great hitter

but he is no Albert Pujols. Their careers numbers are close, but Pujols is definitely better.

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS+
Manny Ramirez career .314/.411/.593/155
Albert Pujols career .334/.425/.624/170

I guess what I’m trying to say is, that whatever Manny gets, Pujols is worth much more. Manny is 36 while Pujols is 28, which means that Pujols isn’t due for a decline like Manny should be. If Albert goes for the big payday, he could be worth more per season than any player so far. Let’s just hope either he dosn’t do that, or ownership realizes that they won’t sell tickets if they don’t keep Pujols.

Piñata - something children beat relentlessly with bats. Piñeiro - .858 OPS against. Some call it irony; I call it destiny.

by thegodfather on Oct 3, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

True...

…the Dodgers cud have played a sock puppet in the outfield and gotten as much production from Jones and Pierre. And it would have been a lot moore fun!
;=8)

Manny is valuable, but to a point: his antics and me-first attitude always have a way of ruining team chemistry, no matter cow many wins he brings – and that leads to disharmony, and eventually more losses. Well, at least in theory. It’s hard to quantify distractions. Of course, a sock puppet in the outside would be distracting too. But unlike Manny, I think the puppet would end up being a leader in the clubhouse, what with him already having a hand up his…old dirt road. Ok, time to put away the sugary cereals…
:=8/

by The MooCow on Oct 4, 2008 8:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

Joe Sheehan

has made the point several times over at BP, that Jason Bay, right now, is a better player than Manny. Bay’s not a great defensive player but when you add in offense and defense, Bay’s better. Set aside the salary and all Manny’s “being Manny” stuff, he’s convincing when he writes that Bay is better. Then you look at the fact that Bay made about a third of what Manny made this year and it’s a much more powerful statement.

In any case, this doesn’t answer your question about Manny’s worth, but it can scarcely be argued that Manny is more valuable than Bay.

by chuckb on Oct 3, 2008 9:58 PM EDT 0 recs

Ramirez is allegedly looking for $100+ M

$25 Mill a year for 4 or 5 years

by vances law on Oct 4, 2008 1:56 PM EDT 0 recs

no chance

by kindred on Oct 4, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pujols' $ Value

Based on Baseball Prospectus’ MORP (Marginal Value over Replacement Player), Pujols is worth the following in the coming years:

2009: $27,625,000
2010: $25,325,000
2011: $27,775,000
2012: $26,775,000
2013: $21,925,000
2014: $18,450,000

Note that this model does not factor in this year’s performance, so these numbers will likely go up when the results are run before next season. For this year, the system had Pujols pegged at $28.7MM value above replacement, based on a projected WARP (wins above replacement player) of 8.7. Pujols finished the year at a WARP of 13.0.

by holden on Oct 6, 2008 3:23 PM EDT 0 recs

Holden

Thanks…I was just going down and dirty to get an idea where the negotiations might start. I think these numbers justify the $24MIL/4years as the starting point and they will only go up from there…

by BigJawnMize on Oct 7, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

what is amazing

look at his historical value, based on WPA, assuming that a win is worth 2.5M, not including defense:

2001	$20.15
2002	$20.80
2003	$29.65
2004	$32.25
2005	$20.75
2006	$47.85
2007	$23.85
2008	$31.95

Again, how in the world did he not win the MVP in 2006?

FWIW a win is worth closer to $4M than 2.5M now, and pujols is the best defender in the league at 1B the last couple of years running. How can we possibly afford to resign him?

the enemy's gate is down.

by SleepyCA on Oct 8, 2008 3:20 AM EDT up 0 recs