Peavy deal that makes sense ?

by rlgosnell on Oct 24, 2008 3:43 AM EDT Comment 28 comments

I couldn't sleep and started thinking about the Rays as a potential trade partner and came up with a scenario that makes sense - to me at least. I'm curious as to how some of you see this trade in terms of value for all parties concerned. I haven't thought about it extensively but I think it might seem reasonable on the surface.

Rays get - Mather, Duncan and take on Pineiro and his contract.

Pads get - Zobrist, Sonnanstine, Kozma, Brian Anderson and Skip.

Cards get - Peavy and Greene.

The Rays would get a RF with some pop in Mather and a potential DH in Duncan while moving a pitcher to make room for Price in the rotation. Pineiro and Edwin Jackson (who could be included in place of Sonnanstine) compete for the 5th rotation spot or Pineiro is moved to the pen as a swingman. They solidfy their lineup while assuming the risk of Duncan and taking on an obviously bad contract.

The Padres get a SS in Zobrist with future protection in Kozma. They also get a ML ready CF and SP who are both cost controlled instead of gambling with potential prospects. In addition they get a solid catching prospect, while getting out of 2 hefty contracts.

The Cards get the centerpiece of the trade in Peavy and assume Greene's contract, which is offset by moving Pineiro's contract which makes it a wash in terms of dollars.

Obviously this deal is a plum for us because we get Peavy without giving up Rasmus, Jones or any of our pitching prospects. We move a bad contract and still have solid OF depth and our top prospects. We could easily include a minor league RP or SP that we consider in the middle of the depth chart along with another OF like Jon Jay to either team to increase the value to them. I think the Pads get everything they're looking for and would be happy to get a proven, yet young SP and immediate help in the MIF and CF. I don't know how the Rays would preceive the deal, without knowing how they value Mather and certainly with questions about Duncan's health and Pineiro's contract. If we did have to include sweetners it would likely be on their end of the deal. I realize we are giving up 6 players in this scenario, but 2 have major warts (Pineiro and Duncan), while Skip and Mather are at positions of depth and Anderson is currently blocked by Molina.

So there's the strawman - feel free to tear it down and rebuild it - or just tear it down altogether. I'm interested in how others see this and whether you have ideas to improve the overall value of the deal for any or all parties involved.

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Didn't put this in the catch all thread. Apologies if I goofed.

by rlgosnell on Oct 24, 2008 3:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As much s I want to say it doesn't make sense

It kind of does though, I don’t think the rays would ever just take on Piniero’s contract they would probably want something with more value to them probably Perez, and in that case i think you but out the rays as a middle man and offer the Pads :Skip, Mather, Duncan, Kozma, Anderson, Perez..Which i think is to much for us to give up but is what you’re giving up anyway if the Rays trade you proposed it just is divided between teams.

Duncan I believe is almost un-tradable given the severity of his injury so that is another Achiles heal to the deal.

so I guess I change my vote it doesn’t make much sense to me.

by bearcatcardfan on Oct 24, 2008 4:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This deal doesn't get done

unless the Padres get a CF that can patrol the vast wasteland that is the middle outfield at PetCo. This trade doesn’t get them that.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Oct 24, 2008 8:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Schiest!!

Andrew Friedman would go from man of the year in St Pete to perennial whipping boy. You are giving him the raw end of the deal here. Zobrist and Sonnanstine for Mather, (forever injured) Duncan, and (why would they want this guy) Pineiro??? That sounds like robbery to me. more like murder.

by Yadi on Oct 24, 2008 10:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

It would be another coup for Mozeliak if we could get something of value for Duncan and Pinata, but I just don’t see it. If Duncan proves healthy in ST, maybe, but not now. And I would rather have Zobrist than Greene.

"Cross a lawyer with the Godfather, make you an offer you can't understand" - Don Henley

by TurdFerguson on Oct 24, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to mention...

our OF “depth” becomes an area of need as we’d be relying on Ankiel, Ludwick and Duncan as our starters with Barton as our fourth and fifth would be……………

It would force Rasmus in, which I guess could be good or bad, and we’d have two, no make that three, no wait, four injury-proven guys in the OF. (all four of the above guys have had injury history prevalent in their past)

I have a feeling we’d be starting Lopez, and Kennedy at the corner outfield spots on a semi-regular basis, which equals 4th place in the NL Central

by timmycardinals on Oct 24, 2008 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Duncan goes to Tampa in this deal

Barton is a starter in this scenario. We’d be starting Rasmus in StL on opening day under this scenario, too.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Oct 24, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It might have been said earlier

but if the Rays are willing to deal Zobrist and Sonnanstine, I would want them more than Greene and Peavy. Mainly due to the contract situations.

by JBagKY on Oct 24, 2008 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I would much rather have Zobrist and Sonnanstine. I have a bad feeling about Peavy (lengthy contract, elbow problems last year, and he’ll be moving away from Petco). I don’t think it would be wise to trade such cost-controlled talent as Anderson, Kozma, Skip, and Mather for a couple of big contracts. Plus I really doubt that anyone would want to take Pin-head.

Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?

by thegodfather on Oct 24, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought about that as well

but the line of thought I was on was making the Peavy deal workable. I probably did underestimate Duncan and Pineiro issues so it might be more attractive to include a RP from us and the Padres to make it more enticing for the Rays. Im not sure about Floyd’s contract but if they do end up using Baldelli as a DH i think Duncan (if healthy – and granted that is a big if) I think he could be a complement in that spot. The Rays seem to be a need based organization and I think if we could fit pieces that meet their needs – RF and DH then a deal isnt out of the question.

by rlgosnell on Oct 24, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why the Rays don't do this

The Rays value defense and pitching. Duncan and Piniero offer neither. And Baldelli is probably the defacto DH because of his chronic fatigue. Joe Mather for Zobrist they might do. Pads would probably love to get rid of Greene, so pick an outfield who can play D in CF (Schumaker, perhaps, or Barton) and that might get it done.

The only deals I see the Rays making are for bullpen help, or maybe 2b. We just don’t match up well.

by michajo on Oct 24, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That is a terrible deal for the Rays.....

Isn’t the entire point of them moving guys to keep salary low, and in under control? Yet they are going to take back JP, then in a year or two have to pony up for Duncan if he sticks?

I just don’t see them doing that at all. You don’t give up Zobrist and Sonnanstine for what they are getting back.

It also isn’t plausible for STL to move 3 OF’s, and not get one back.

"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."

by SoonerfanTU on Oct 24, 2008 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Duncan is not going to be a break the bank player

And moving 3 OF’s isnt the greatest concern when Skip is made redundant by Rasmus and Duncan really doesn’t fit into the future. An OF of Rasmus, Ludwick and Ankiel with Barton as the 4OF would be fine with me. Ludwick and Ankiel may have injury concerns but every team is going to have concerns and I would rather have them there than in the starting rotation. Daryl Jones and the possbility of Wallace playing LF lines up replacements for one of the two after next year. That really leaves the only major issue of finding a 5th OF to roudn out the roster and there are far worse things to worry about than finding a decent 5th OF. Stavinoha, Freese, Craig and Shane Robinson are all possible candidates.

by rlgosnell on Oct 24, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We need 5 OF's on the roster, and at least one guy in AAA that is ready.....

b/c you know there will be injuries.

You may like Barton as our 4th OF, I prefer he be the 5th guy at most next year.

"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."

by SoonerfanTU on Oct 24, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one is going to take Pineiro off our hands

for anybody worthwhile.

We just need to face that.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Oct 24, 2008 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We could use him to balance salaries, though

The idea of throwing him in on that proposed Renteria deal would make some sense. As would including him on a deal for Khalil Greene. Obviously more would have to be involved, but using him as a means to swap bad contracts might make some sense for someone.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Oct 24, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stop.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 24, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

?

Trading horrible contracts is a hallowed baseball tradition.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Oct 24, 2008 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and trading horrible contracts for horrible contracts only works in the NBA.

Stop.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 24, 2008 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it does?

Do you not remember the Woody Williams for Ray Lankford deal?

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Oct 25, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not going to say it couldn't happen...

but that leaves us a bit short in the OF don’t you think? Giving up Skip, Duncan and Mather. That leaves Ank, Ludwick, Rasmus, Barton and Jay? Two of those guys are borderline major league ready, and Jay is at best a half season away.

I think it’s too much to give up for Peavy and Greene.

I’d rather trade Mather and Duncan for Zobrist and Sonnanstine (I don’t know enogh about Andy to say whether we might get hosed in this deal). I see it as Mather for Zobrist and Duncan for Sonny – this sounds good to me.

by cardzfanbub on Oct 24, 2008 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Rays...

kinda get the short end of the stick. Mather is a good prospect, but Duncan and Pineiro’s contract would probably be considered a liability. I don’t think many teams are thinking too highly of Duncan right now.

"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it."- Rogers Hornsby

by redbirds8233 on Oct 25, 2008 1:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

to everyone that said the Rays get kinda screwed on that one. I don’t think it happens. Remember, this is a team that was able to trade D. Young for 2 important cogs in the WS team for this season. I don’t think their GM/owner would ever look at that trade twice.

by stlfan on Oct 25, 2008 8:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

critique

how bout instead of cdunc and pinata, we swap that for daryl jones, that is a guy everyone wants w/a salary under control, this gives the rays a top notch OF prospect, and a power hitting bench OF, oh and if worst comes to worst, throw in a boggs or todd

by thenextgen on Oct 25, 2008 11:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

in that case I think you're overpaying.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 25, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe... maybe not

if we extend ludwick or ankiel, than daryl jones doesnt mean much to tis franchise in the future, besdies, neither boggs nor todd has the stuff to cut it as more than a back of the roatation pitcher, and a bad one

by thenextgen on Oct 26, 2008 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Oct 27, 2008 1:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs