Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy

by redbirddude on Oct 21, 2008 4:53 PM EDT Comment 6 comments

I know that we have the hot stove post, but this is specifically about the two players mentioned above. I'm not going to lie, I'm probably not the most in depth baseball analyst out there, with the grumblings I've heard here and there about the Cards perhaps ironing out a deal with the Yanks I was wondering what the consensus was on these two players. How good are they or do you think they will be? Your thoughts are helpful.

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i would be shocked if this deal happened

hell, i would be shocked if the rumor was actually legit

to answer your question, the yankees were so enamored with these two pitchers last offseason that they wouldn’t include either one in a deal for johan santana…so i can’t see why they would trade them BOTH for one cheap year of ankiel and anderson….maybe they know that both of there arms are going to fall off by the all-star break this season or something

anyways, hughes profiles as a guy who could be an ace, and kennedy could be a solid #3, maybe even a #2…both pitched somewhat poorly for the yanks this season, but both are young and ooze potenial/stuff

would be a steal for the cards methinks, but maybe i’m wrong

by VolsnCards5 on Oct 21, 2008 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're right

…this is more of a Hot Stove-thread post.

However, here you go:

Phil Hughes
Hughes is 22 years old, and obviously struggled in his time in New York this past season. However, he is still only 22, and the list of young pitchers who have immediate super-success isn’t a huge one. The guy has dominated every level he’s been at in the minors, posting both low FIPs and good K/BB numbers. He’s pretty much a three pitch guy: FB, Curve, Change, with a FB sitting at around 92. Josh Kalk’s database showed he mixed in a handful of sliders in his limited time with in The Show. He’s got more upside than Kennedy, and I doubt the Yankees are dealing him based on struggles in a small amount of ML exposure. I’m not huge on getting the guy myself because I feel he’s a bit overrated by most and would likely cost a bit more than he’s really worth. Obviously, his minor league numbers were good, as is his command generally speaking, but he doesn’t have that kind of stuff that makes you go “wow” like a Lincecum/Cain/Price/Joba type. I’m not saying he won’t be good…I just don’t think he’s the guy the Cards should target if they want a young, ace-type guy.

Ian Kennedy
I’m not big on this guy to tell you the truth. He’s a FB/CB/SL/CU guy, but his stuff simply isn’t very good. He DID manage to have a ton of success in the minors, posting very good K/BB numbers and solid FIPs as well…However, the guy tops out at about 90, and during his time in the minors he was more like 87. I saw him pitching in the AAA world series, and he got waxed. SMALL SAMPLE WARNING…He was topping at about 85-6, and not locating at all…SMALL SAMPLE WARNING OVER, YOU MAY RETURN TO YOUR PREVIOUS ACTIVITIES His changeup is fairly good, but his breaking balls are sort of flat, the kind of pitch you have to just swing and miss at, but won’t fool many people. This effectively makes him a FB/CU righty who doesn’t throw hard. That is a tough profile to make work as a starter, unless you generate movement like this guy. Major leaguers don’t generally throw change-ups to same-side hitters, so righties have to throw a decent breaking ballThe scouts never had Kennedy as anything better than a back-end guy. I think he could be a decent reliever, possibly a 5 starter in the NL, but I’m not big on trading for him either.

Here are some good sources for researching these guys if you’re curious:

Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool. This shows the pitch f/x data for any pitcher who threw in the major leagues this season.
firstinning.com. This one has minor league and college stats.
Carlos Gomez. I’m not a big fan of Gomez’s mechanical analysis for various reasons, however I do believe that he does a pretty good job analyzing the pitches themselves. It’s worth a look anyway. He’s got articles on both guys.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Oct 21, 2008 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If this rumor has legs

I doubt it would be for BOTH Hughes and Kennedy but lets say it might be for only one of them. I wonder out loud how it might compare to the Reds and Rangers trade last year of Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez.

Hamilton very obviously was a 26 yr old rookie in 2007 and thus cost controlled for 5 more years while Ankiel is 28 can be a free agent in 2010 (not to mention coming off surgery), however as we have seen from the Yankees in the past money is not a prohibitive issue for them as it is for other teams.

Volquez at the time was 23 yrs old and had made 17 starts in the bigs spread over 3 seasons. I believe he was still classified as a rookie in 2008 (but I could be wrong).

I am not a pro at comparing Volquez to Hughes and/or Kennedy nor have i looked at their minor league stats. That being said, Ankiel for one of them doesn’t sound too crazy. I’m not quite sure how adding Anderson would sweeten it to the point the Yankees would add both pitchers + another prospect.

by Knighttime on Oct 22, 2008 1:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Word is the Yankees are looking to add two impact free agent starters

That would probably make one of these guys expendable. I’d rather have Hughes.

In the end, though, I think this whole notion is a bit ludicrous. Intriguing, certainly, but ludicrous.

by mojowo11 on Oct 22, 2008 4:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would say this post

Is exactly what the hot stove is for. Unless of course there was some significant research or new ideas presented. This kind of post knocks other fanposts of the main page when it should not.

Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?

by thegodfather on Oct 22, 2008 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs