Renteria in 2009?
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 11:47 AM EDT
49 comments
rumor has it, that DET will try and move edgar renterias' 11 mil. contract for 2009, or buy him out for 3 mil. to just go away. from the DET point of view, the 3 mil. buyout would be waisted budget $. if they could trade him for any player with 3 mil. value, they at least have a player in return for the $ they are committed to, rather than noone. finding a team to take on the 8 mil. difference, is the task. doesn't this suggest DET finding a mutual dump partner? does renteria have 11 mil. value to the other mlb teams? does he have the 8 mil. difference value to mlb teams, if DET would consider taking on at least 3 mil. in a trade? DET is locked in for 3 mil., whichever approach they choose (trade or buyout), they might as well get a player in return. the added player could always be released at no expense to DET, over renteria's buyout.
i'll throw a proposal out there from STL, and let it be shot to swiss cheese. there is a need on STL's part to fill the shortstop role for 2009, with the farm not ready to produce a league average player at that position. here is just one possible scenario.
renteria for pineiro straight up, 11 mil. (renteria) for 7.5 mil. (pineiro). STL takes on 11 mil., 3.5 mil. over the pineiro contract, for renteria. DET takes on 7.5 mil, 4.5 mil over the 3 mil. renteria buyout. DET mulls over the offer a week, and decides they would like to split the difference of payroll added for 2009 with STL, both teams using 4 mil. of their budget remaining. they counter propose renteria for pineiro and 0.5 mil. cash.
should DET offer this proposal, renteria for pineiro and 0.5 mil. cash? does pineiro have 4 mil value to DET as a swing man?
should STL agree to the counterproposal? renteria at 11.5 mil., 4 mil. from the available 2009 budget used over the pineiro contract, with pineiro traded away. STL now has to replace the innings pineiro was in line to receive, but the starting ss is in place for 4 mil from the budget available.
should STL just wait for renteria to become a FA after his buyout? will he make it to his buyout? or will DET find a trading partner along these lines, and renteria never becomes available on the FA market? many teams could use an upgrade at shortstop.
both players will be FA's after 2009. pineiro has good career #'s at DET's stadium. renteria needs a return to the NL. thoughts?
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One goalie's opinion...
I don’t believe anyone will trade for $11 mil of Edgar; other teams (including the Cards, mayhap) will simply wait for Detroit to pay Edgar his $3 mil and try to sign him at a reduced price. He’s entering his age-33 season, and I suspect he’s on the decline. I’d pass…
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
ok, thanks for your reply.
you believe renteria will make it to FA status. he very well may, but i’m going to respectfully disagree, and say they can avoid eating his buyout by finding a trade partner.
one question……don’t you think the production he produced in 2006 and 2007 for ATL, will attract a trade partner?
he has some serious AL / NL splits, for reasons unknown to me. he had the same poor results in 05 with BOS, as he did in DET 2008 (AL).
his combined line in 06 and 07 (NL) was……..310 / .374 / .451 / .825….that’s very good for either league at shortstop.
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Renteria was terrible last year
.270/.317/.382, and I suspect he’s lost a step or more, too.
If there were some way you could promise me 2007 Edgar (.332/.390/.470), I’d be all for it. But as it stands, I’m not interested.
just can't explain the NL / AL splits.
when comparing renteria’s 2008……….270 / .317 / .382
and izturis 2008…………………………..263 / .319 / .309
i believe STL actually gains production. so which level of terrible do we prefer in 2009
if STL is actually in the furcal sweepstakes, this exercise is a moot point. but i don’t expect us to be.
if we back up to 06 and 07 NL numbers (as you acknowledged)………renteria has produced at a rate one year removed, that izturis has never seen. so i’m looking for a bounceback year from renteria in the NL, over izturis defensive + abilities.
under the prosposed trade above, i take 4 mil from the 2009 budget and dump pineiro, which is a plus in itself for me.
izturis could very easily get 4 mil for 2009, so the salaries washout.
not asking for you to agree, but stating STL was terrible at ss in 2008 also. here’s just a different scenario, that could avoid, more of the same in 2009. thanks for your reply.
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the idea is worth...
considering. If the team is interested in bringing Renteria in, it keeps us from having to commit multiple years. The question is what can Renteria bring on the FA market…2yrs/$14 mil? I really have no idea. I figure Piniero is “worth” about $3mil next year…meaning we are overpaying by $4.5mil. If we trade him for Renteria + $.5mil it makes Renteria essentially a 1yr/$7mil deal. I’d do that in a heartbeat.
greene at 6.5 mil has been kicked around because of peavy.
i’d gamble on a bounceback NL year from renteria before i would greene. for about the same $ (2yr / 14 mil sounds reasonable), as far as “project players” available.
and yes, dumping pineiro as a 4th or 5th SP has real value to me. even if i had to add a #15 prospect with pineiro, to seal the deal.
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Why?
Why would you gamble on a 33 year old SS who’s been in the league 12+ years and has a ton of miles on him over a guy who’s coming off a terrible year, is 27 years old and would be getting out of the worst hitters home park in the majors — and he’s also in a contract year.
I think they both could have a bounceback year, but I’d rather bet on the younger guy with the ISO over .200 who plays in a pitchers paradise for half his games than the guy who just turned 33 and has been banged up the last two seasons.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
if they will take pineiro
i’m in!
greene, renteria, whomever. the quicker the org can find a mutual dump for pineiro, the better.
if you want to start a “greene in 09” thread, i’ll bring the home / road splits :)
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
2008 by OPS+
in fairness to all discussed their 08 seasons were cabrera 86 OPS+, renteria 84, izturis 67, greene 63. furcals small sample size dwarfs them all. if greene and renteria both improve 20 OPS+ points, greene is yet to match renterias’ 08.
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought Detroit already said.....
They were going to NOT pick up his option (or buy him out)?
I don’t think we’d want him. He wasn’t that good last year, and as I’ve said many, many times, I think there is probably some bad blood with how he left.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
last i read, they were to buy him out.
i just happen to think a team will look at his 06 and 07 and find a way to do a deal before he becomes FA available.
it’s a position within mlb where teams are willing to gamble due to the lack of quality players.
there may be bad blood that i’m not aware of. you could be right, there may be a “no vacancy edgar” sign on his old locker.
it is a different regime (gm) and same owner. i’ll pass on the politics involved, i just don’t know.
ty for the link.
DET’s intentions are well documented, concerning declining renterias’ option. no transaction or official release from mlb.com.
rototimes.com reports that the cardinals had until november 15th to accept or decline mulders option. stl contacted mulders agent and made him aware the cardinals “intend” to decline mulders club option.
i suppose the same nov 15th deadline applies to renteria, and expect DET to keep the trade door open until then. whether or not renteria makes it to FA eligible to all teams, remains to be seen.
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
the replies to this trade proposal have shown a concern for renterias' 2009 production.
moreso than the trading of pineiro. it’s possible i view the pineiro contract as more of a burden to the 2009 budget, than most. i happen to think he’s a gas can with the lid off. highly flamable.
but, i’ll stay with the 2009 ss production theme, produced by the replies. looks like there will be 3 everyday shortstops available this offseason. furcal, o. cabrera and renteria. i’m going to exclude izturis, for lack of starts. he sat too much for everyday status, for me. besides, we now what he offers, just a matter of how much for 09.
furcal is estimated to be a 15 mil / 5 yr acquisiton, maybe he gets it.
o. cabrera in the 33 mil / 3 yr range, from surfing various sites.
renteria is having a 11 mil / 1 yr club option declined. if i include the DET 3 mil buyout to my 4 mil added to the 09 payroll, i guess i set his 09 at 7 mil / 1 yr.
career…………..AB…….BA…..OBP…SLG….OPS
furcal………….4636…..286…..352…..412…..764
cabrera……….5958…..274…..322…..399…..721
renteria……….7140…..290…..347…..405…..753
if furcal is worth twice the contract of renteria, renteria needs to be in full blown decline, based on career #’s.
cabrera lagging behind.
08 / 07 / 06 3 yr avgs.
furcal………….1378…..293…..362…..420…..782
cabrera……….1902…..288…..338…..390…..728
renteria……….1595…..298…..356…..429…..786
cabrera showing up on the field (for work) the best, still lagging behind offensively.
renteria producing best last 3 yrs, barely better than furcal.
furcal production fine, but a full yrs worth of AB’s behind cabrera, over the last 3 yrs.
08 / 07 2 yr avgs
furcal…………..724…..287…..354…..398…..752
cabrera………1295…..291…..340…..384…..724
renteria………..997…..301…..354…..425…..779
same storyline as the 3 yr avgs. cabrera shows up, renteria adding to his OPS lead over furcal by .027 up from .004
2008
furcal……………143…..357…..439…..573…..1.012
cabrera…………657…..282…..335…..371…….706
renteria…………503…..270…..317…..382…….699
heres where the perceived perceptions are based on.
furcal puts up 143 career AB’s and is valued near 15 mil over 5 yrs. after matching renteria nose to nose for their careers up to 2008.
cabrera is in decline from 06. it’s not severe, but a gradual decline.
renteria stubs his toe, and puts up a .699 OPS when he was on pace to put up a .760ish.
furcal does have the best career avg, is youngest and had the best 08 (in a VERY small sample size). has had issues staying on the field to display his abilities. has the best defensive range and arm.
cabrera looks due to have a .700 OPS in 2009, by his current decline. still a better defender than renteria, but could easily match renterias’ 08 in his 09.
renterias’ 08 is .054 OPS under his career avg. if he lands in the NL in 09, i expect an .745 OPS. down from his .779 last 2 yr avg.
when i factor the offensive projections, defensive abilities, age decline and possible 09 salaries; furcal ranks higher than renteria and cabrera. but not at a 15 mil, 11 mil, to 7 mil ratio.
i’m much more comfortable with 12, 8, 7 (furcal, cabrera, renteria).
15 per for furcal is based on 143 AB’s and postseason exposure. i can see 5/60, 12 per for his defense and youth.
8 for cabrera for his steady playing time and defense. 7 for renteria due to his off year in the AL and declining defensive abilities.
furcals contract will be the easiest to get burned on. his 3yr (.782) and 2yr (.752) OPS avgs suggests he had trouble maintaining his numbers while battling injuries. furcal could very easily match his 3 yr avg or exceed it slightly. that’s not 15 mil worthy for me.
opinions vary, but renterias’ 7 mil could be the best bargain with a comeback year. regardless of the decision the org makes, the 09 ss has my support, whomever he is.
detroit would be stupid to take pineiro
even IF they didn’t already decline his option. would be sweet for us though.
you could very well be right.
thanks for replying with your opinion.
the 08 DET rotation reminds me alot of the 07 cardinals. a total shambles. here’s just one look at how pineiro COULD fit in their 09 rotation, by ERA+ from 2008.
………………………..ERA+….GS
gallaraga…………….118……28
garcia…………………105……03……….2009 FA
miner………………….103……13
bonderman…………..103……12
verlander……………….91……33
total………………………………89 games started, with an ERA+ better than pineiros’ 2008. (55% of season)
pineiro…………………..83……25
bonine…………………..81……05
c. lambert………………78……03
rodgers…………………77……30……….FA 2009
robertson……………….69……28
willis…………………….47……07
total………………………………73 games started, with an ERA+ worse than pineiros’ 2008. (45% of season)
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think Detroit needs/wants Pineiro
even with salary relief. Starting pitching is not their problem. Come to think of it, I’m not sure what their problem really is—other than having too many overpaid superstars with declining production.
So Renteria is in the free agent pile, but he’s getting old and St. Louis really doesn’t have a shortstop-in-waiting on the farm. Ergo, the club would be better off it would step up and sign either the best free agent available or trade for one. The stopgap, one-year stuff just isn’t the route to success, IMO.
Starting pitching not the problem?
They had one pitcher with an ERA under 4. Verlander, Rogers, and Robertson got whacked around like a pinata, and Bonderman went down with an injury.
The offense on the other hand scored more than all but 3 AL teams. They had the fourth highest OBP, the second highest SLG, the second most HR, and averaged over 5 runs per game. So, despite the fourth highest number of runs scored on in the AL, they had one of the league’s worst records. Their offense was just fine…it WAS the pitching staff.
Oh, and Piniero does not solve that problem in any way. I would love to see Pinata Piniero in the AL, if for nothing else than the entertainment value.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Oct 21, 2008 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Well on paper
they’ve got a decent rotation: Bonderman, Verlander, Gallaraga, Willis?, Robertston/Rogers/Porcello.
Now, perhaps that group won’t perform up to expectations again next year. But if I’m running the Tigers, I’m not looking to add a retread like Joel Pineiro to the rotation.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 22, 2008 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Am i missing something
i though renteria was a FA….we don’t need to deal with the tigers, right?
well...........they "intend to buy him out"
and make him a FA. if there’s a link that confirms he’s already a FA, like to see it.
from mlb.com would be nice. could be i’ve missed it.
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks
see above :) concerning their 08 starts. rodgers and robertson were both less productive than pineiro, for me. fortunatly, rodgers is a FA. maybe they can throw more big money at another starter this offseason, and bypass the pineiro trade.
Interestng posts; yet no one seems to have addressed ER's supposed decline in the field.
Has he lost range? Become more erratic and error prone? If so, that defensive shortcoming would further diminish his worth. Izzy2 at least provided solid D.
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
HardballTimes.com Link to SS fielding stats
Shows Edgar in the middle of the pack. Iz2 is top three in RZR and OOZ.
Many thanks. Seems like there is little to choose between Izzy2 and ER overall. I'm rather sure, however, Izzy2 would be cheaper. I know he's yournger.
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
all i'm willing to give you, is the eyeball test results.
furcal, izturis, cabrera and renteria. best to worst.
i’ve been in these fielding discussions before, and those envolved seem to wind up chasing their tails :)
RZR is a nice rate stat. OOZ an accumulative stat, based on playing time opportunities. both can be found at thehardballtimes.com, along with win shares. WSAB, batting and fielding shares.
BP has fielding data for free at baseballprospectus.com, on the DT player cards.
thanks for the reply
14th season for Edgar
There aren’t too many successful mlb SS this far into a career He’s 33 and will be 34 next August. I see a repeat at best of this year’s line with some time on the DL resulting in about 500 ABs. I don’t have access to the better fielding stats to know about any range issues.
I would lean toward sending a AA prospect to SD for KG and some cash kinda a reverse Edmonds trade.
Agreed
I’ll take my chances with Greene, who is due for a bounceback year after his putrid 2007.
If Renteria is truly going to be a FA, I think the Cards should look at signing him though, since he won’t cost a player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
would Renteria cost a draft pick?
I have no idea what his status is
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
He is projected as a type A
But if the Tigers buy him out he’s an unconditional free agent, which means they waive their rights to a compensatory draft pick. Similar to a team not offering a free agent arbitration.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
thanks.
good to know.
I admit wondering about a trade for Edgar too. $11M salary, $3M buyout – Tigers eat the $3M buyout and we pay him $8M for only 1yr. Send some low lovel prospect back type deal.
That said, it appears most pundits believe his defense has dropped off signifigantly and he is hearing the end of his usefullness. I tend to belive them, and do not view him as an overall upgrade to the SS position at this point.
if SD accepts and pineiro remains, greene will have to gaurd against a neck injury :)
watching line drives leave the park.
in all seriousness though, izturis had a slightly better 08 offensivly than greene. but greene has the track record to possibly outperform izturis if he returns to form. so the difference in salaries would be justified by a greene comeback year. defensivly pretty close, for me.
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm just wondering why o. cabrera didn't show up on this list you generated?
he is a year older than renteria. well 9 months.
by ball in play on Oct 21, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Based on MLB experience
not age of player. OC will be entering his 13th season of MLB. I’m looking at it from a wear and tear point of view. OC’s first two seasons were much lighter than ER’s. Edgar has 7956 PA 1837 games at SS in his career. OC has 6533 PA – 1526 games as SS in his career. Lots of mileage on Edgar. For the record, I wouldn’t sign OC either because of the drop in projection for the back end of any anticipated FA contract in his case.
thanks for the clarification. i agree on O-Cab
i haven’t stated it anywhere else in this thread, but if renteria does make it to FA status this offseason, i lose the pineiro salary dump option. renteria’s value in 09 to me, falls like a rock. if i have to then choose between renteria and izturis at 4 mil / 1 yr, i sign izturis D, for the sake of the pitching staff.
and then i have to go hunt down another mutual dump for you know who……..
A complete fantasy land trade
what if we give them AK and pinata the salaries wash and we get them to throw in a Rico Washington type player
Another problem:
Our rotation is in flux with the iffy state of our big ace, Carp. If Carp is ready:
Carp
ADAM
Welley
Lohse
Pineiro
Take Pineiro away and who’s the 5th starter?
Now take Carp away. Who are the 4th and 5th starters?
Now take away someone else due to a freak injury (sore back, 15 day DL)? What the hell is our rotation going to look like for two weeks?
Just saying, the issue is more complex than just “who is the best SS to have.” Trading a starting pitcher, even a bad one with a hefty contract, would leave us with nobody to pitch. Then we have to talk about getting another starter or maybe two.
I am ramblesome and I must sleep.
great point
Pineiro is Pineiro, but he is a pitcher with big league experience and at least does have the potential to have a quality start. Moving him without having a plan to upgrade his rotation spot is not a wise move. In this hypothetical scenerio, I would suggest signing Looper after trading Pineiro. It’s an upgrade and wont take $11M a year to do it.
the 09 rotation i am looking at is not in flux.
we all see things differently, and i am not saying your approach to the 09 rotation is wrong, it’s just different from mine.
i have already flipped carp and mcclellan. carp is now in my bullpen. k-mac is my 5th SP.
stretching out (conditioning) carp to be a starter in 09, makes no sense to me whatsoever, at the start of 09. he’s having health issues. why max out his pitch count load, from spring training on? put him in the pen, and ask him to condition himself for half the workload of a SP. maybe it improves his ability to stay healthy. maybe he can make 30 appearances in 81 games. then revisit the situation at the half season mark. k-mac is now nearing his 08 workload. to avoid spiking his 08 IP badly in 09, i now drop carp down in the pen as more of a middle reliever (best case scenario) if all seems well with carp. in k-macs next 5 starts he goes 30 innings over his 08 workload, no dramatic spike in IP yet, but getting there. these 5 starts give carp another month to be a 2 IP reliever, w/maybe a 3 IP appearance. in k-macs next 5 starts i only give him 20 IP, he’s 50 over now and a bullpener now. tandem start carp w/k-mac these last 5 starts. carp throwing 4 IP also. k-mac made 20 best effort starts and 5 abbreviated starts equaling about 130 IP(20×5.5 + 5×4 =130IP) carp has made 30ish short bullpen appearances, 10 extended appearances to stretch him out, and has a month to make his own reg season starts and maybe some postseason starts in 09? i know its a conservate approach, but for me, it has a better chance of getting more than the 20 IP i got from carp in 08. (when ya start up that 10 to 15 yr vehicle w/200,000 miles, the worst thing ya can do is hold the pedal to the floor for an extended period of time) let carp have 10 saves, then some middle relief appearances, then some abbreviated starts, then some september starts, then some postseason starts. maybe he goes back on the DL when we try to stretch him out as a middle reliever. who knows? morris and smoltz were both handled this way after surgery, why not carp? is it the contract? ……………"it’s my 14 mil and i want my 20 wins now! ". is that the approach STL is taking? can we not at least try a different approach since the past approach failed? bring him back slowly over a year, not 2 months. give him half a season in the pen, maybe he can help the franklin, perez and motte trio close out games in the late innings. wouldn’t that be a nice change from 08.
at the lohse resigning, moz stated we still had a back end starter to sign. theres yer 4th SP. i wouldn’t mind a moyer signing. check his wins over the last 3 yrs. and his salaries. pretty effecient usage of funds.
pineiro……needs to go away. some how, some way. he does not deserve another 150 IP in 09, period.
glaus produced an OPS of .855 in 08. pretty darn good year. EVERY batter pineiro faced in 08, combined to produce an OPS of 847. pineiro makes the batters he faces look like glaus. now consider pineiro also faces SP’s, lol. the position players pineiro faces OUTPRODUCE glaus’ 855 OPS for 08.
here’s another comparison. the .847 OPS pineiro allowed in 08. is .049 OPS points HIGHER than thompsons’ CAREER OPS allowed. thompsons developmental years. he could still improve. his ceiling may just be looper, but he’s no pineiro in 08.
wainwright, lohse, welly, moyer, k-mac would be fine by me, with thompson boggs as middle relievers.
thanks for your reply.
Renteria Type A
http://tigers-thoughts.blogspot.com/2008/10/final-elias-projections-al-2b3bss.html
If Eddie Bajek is correct here, and Renteria is a Type A FA, then I think whether or not we pursue him will be determined on whether or not Detroit offers arbitration. Personally, I don’t think it will happen, but if it does…
If Renteria declines Arbitration and become a FA, he’s type A and I don’t feel it’d be worth it at all to sign him, and give up the picks. If he is not offered, then we can talk about it, IMO.
by timmycardinals on Oct 22, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
i agree.
if he makes it to FA, i’d rather have izturis again at 4 mil or so, because i lose the pineiro mutual DUMP.
with renteria and polanco having been two of my favorite cardinals, i’m already glad i started this thread. have now “caught up” on renteria’s career and have enjoyed speaking of him. ty for your reply.
Why can we cite Greene's 07 but not Renteria's
I am going to base the numbers against wOBA
wOBA or weighted on base average is a statistic developed by and used with the permission of Tom Tango. He gives a detailed rundown of it here. In a nutshell, wOBA uses linear weights on certain batting events to come up with a metric that is more statistically sound than OPS and is scaled onto an OBP scale. According to Tango “An average hitter is around 0.340 or so, a great hitter is 0.400 or higher, and a poor hitter would be under 0.300.”
http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
I am going to use the Park Adjusted version of wOBA*
Greene wOBA* wOBA+
2004 0.351 103
2005 0.332 99
2006 0.342 100
2007 0.339 100
2008 0.274 82
Renteria
wOBA* w OBA+
2003 0.395 116 STL
2004 0.339 99 STL
2005 0.324 95 BOS
2006 0.372 109 ATL
2007 0.395 117 ATL
2008 0.330 97 DET
Got all my stats from www.statcorner.com
So Renteria has been better than Greene in almost every single years and half of them by large margins. Renteria has put up his best years in the NL and his worst in the AL. His best year ever was in 2007. Renteria also had a strong line Post All-Star of .296/.343/.469/ OPS of .812
Renteria is a good bet especially on a one or two year contract.
According to the Strauss chat
the higher ups seem to think Renteria is washed up so I don’t think he will be wearing Birds on the Bats next year. I guess he will have to have his comeback year with another team.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
Good idea
Another idea – how about bringing back Eck? Depending on AK’s situation, Eck could do 2B or displace Miles?
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
I like Renteria better...
better on D, if only for the double play arm and range.
better on O, if only for the gap power.
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