cardinals 2009 roster matrix
by lboros on Oct 2, 2008 8:19 AM EDT
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Printthanks ev’ybody for the gold watch and all the kind words and well wishes; i am truly touched. transition procedures are underway, and we should have things settled by next week.
i promised to work up a roster matrix for today, so here it is w/out further ado:
2009 ROSTER MATRIX
THE BASELINE
| STARTERS | BENCH | ROTATION | PEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| molina c $3.3m |
miles ut $2m |
wainwright rhp $2.6m |
perez rhp $400K |
| pujols 1b $16m |
duncan lf $600K |
lohse rhp $7.1m |
franklin rhp $2.5m |
| kennedy 2b $4m |
barton of $400K |
pineiro rhp $7.5m |
motte rhp $400K |
| glaus 3b $11.3m |
mather of $400K |
wellemeyer rhp $2.5m |
mcclellan rhp $400K |
| [vacant] - - - |
ryan ut $400K |
carpenter rhp $14m |
kinney rhp $400K |
| schumaker lf $450K |
rasmus of memphis |
boggs rhp memphis |
thompson rhp $500K |
| ankiel cf $2.5m |
anderson c memphis |
todd rhp memphis |
jimenez rhp memphis |
| ludwick rf $1.8m |
freese 3b memphis |
mortensen rhp memphis |
worrell rhp memphis |
| TOTAL $39.0m |
TOTAL $3.8m |
TOTAL $33.7m |
TOTAL $4.6m |
| OVERALL | PAYROLL: | $81.1m |
the numbers are a lot more guesstimate-y than usual this year, because the cards have 3 arbitration-eligible players who are coming off very good years ---- ludwick, wellemeyer, and ankiel. all 3 are difficult to price, because their paths to success were so strange; it’s hard to find players to compare them to. wellemeyer and ankiel are both in their 3d year of eligibility, which is usually a pretty high-priced year, but since neither had ever established himself before 2008 their baselines are low; you can’t price them the way you’d price a typical 3d-year arb-eligible. my guesses aren’t very scientific, but they’ll have to serve for now.
i’ve given those 3 guys an aggregate salary bump of $4.5m. molina and wainwright both get $2m salary increases next year, and carp’s salary goes up by $3.5m; kennedy gets a nominal bump but glaus’s salary comes down by a couple million. the net effect on the payroll is about $10m worth of built-in salary increases, partially offsetting the roughly $35m that comes off the books (izzy, mulder, looper, encarnacion, spiezio, springer, flores, and miles).
we can anticipate a few more alterations to this grid. kennedy will be gone, but most (if not all) of the salary will probably remain on the cards’ debit sheet. i expect felipe lopez to be re-signed, probably for about $3m. there’s a reasonable chance they will sign izzy to a low-base, high-incentives deal. they will sign a big-league backup catcher; anderson isn’t ready, and it wouldn’t do him or the organization any good to rush him. miles? he may finally have played himself off the team --- after hitting .317 there might be a decent offer or two out there for him, and if it takes multiple years to keep him i don’t think the cards would commit. [my mistake --- miles is still a year away from free agency; he only hit the market last year because the club non-tendered him, and i wouldn't expect that to happen again.] at least one outfielder will almost surely be traded. and at least two left-handed pitchers will be acquired --- you might have noticed that there is not a single lhp listed on this chart.
if we set aside $10m for the anticipated acquisitions (lopez, izzy, backup catcher, LOOGYs), that leaves about $12m for a shortstop. anybody think they can get rafael furcal at that price? i wouldn’t think so, but with creative salary structuring they could probably make it work. don’t forget, glaus’s salary departs after 2009 and a league-minimum player will probably take over, so the club will be able to accommodate a $15m shortstop more comfortably from 2010 forward. i’ve heard that furcal and the dodgers have mutual interest in an extension, so the question may be moot . . . .
this matrix is only a starting point, but it’s a much better starting point than where we found ourselves at this time last year. in its current state, this payroll has a more rational allocaton of dollars than we’re accustomed to. last year’s bullpen cost $16 million, and the bench tallied nearly $6m (not counting encarnacion’s salary); both units are now composed mainly of cost-controlled homegrown players --- as they should be. while there are obvious holes, there also is a lot of flexibility in this matrix --- various options for taking in here, letting out there. it’ll be very interesting to see how it unfolds.
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Barden
I really hope he turns out to be a Mark Derosa type player. Plays everywhere, good (not great) bat. I think with him, Ryan, and even Hoffpauir, it would be foolish to give Miles even a one year deal even though he has been better than anyone could have hoped this year.
If TLR is here, Miles will be back
Mainly because he knows where his bread is buttered.
Are you talking about the same Brendan Ryan that OPS’d at 57 this year? And the Jarrett Hoffpauir that couldn’t hit out of a wet paper bag at Memphis? I don’t think those two guys are going to contribute much to this team even as backup players, as much as we’d all like them to be able to do that.
Barden will be given a shot to win a utility role next season — but with a new SS in the middle infield, Lopez at second, and Miles backing up the middle infield, I have a hard time seeing him making the club because players like Freese, Mather, and Rasmus all give the club better options at the plate. I don’t see Tony carrying 4 middle infielders if he has Lopez and a FA SS who can hit — it’ll be much more like what we had in 2005 and 2006: 1 MI, 1 CN/OF (the Speezer position), 1 C, and 2 OF.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm excited
about seeing Freese, Mather, and Rasmus next year.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
heh
I hope at least Freese makes the team
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
wet paper bag you say?
In 410 AB’s for Memphis 31 doubles, 1 triple and 4 homers for a .383 slugging. Obviously that will fall when facing major league pitching but Miles had 14, 2, and 4 in 379 AB’s for a slugging of .396. I think that Hoffpauir is younger (25), has a higher upside, costs less, and has significantly more pop than Miles has. However, you will probably have to deal with more struggles from Hoffpauir out of the gate. Then again, Miles hit 30 pints over his career average BA which in turn inflated his slugging since more singles (which is what all of them were) equals more TB.
fun with typos: "30 pints over his career average"
all of those pints are definitely going to inflate his chugging percentage.
The best addition to the roster
matrix we can hope to see is a willingness to bump the payroll up by about 10% or so. I’m no expert, but I think the revenue is there. I don’t want to wantonly throw cash around, but I think the payroll should have grown more since Busch III opened.
I would love to see one more run producer in addition to the obvious acquisitions and, unfortunately, I don’t think it will be Rasmus. In any event, it will be interesting to see who the OFs will be on the 2009 opening day roster.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Are you referencing Strauss
who yesterday reportedly said that Rasmus may be headed to the Rox as part of a package for MHolliday?
Proud sponsor of the Official 2008 StL Cardinal theme song: "Beautiful Day" by U2
I didn't see that.....
Did he speculate at what the rest of the deal might look like?
Would love to use that deal to unload of AK and/or JP.
Yes, it would be colossally stupid
to not only trade for a guy who will almost certainly underperform his career numbers, but to put the guy you don’t want in a situation where he can make you look as bad as possible by hitting in the best hitter’s park in the league. Not to mention that Holliday will only have one year left on his deal.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
yeah
it would be a deal made while blacked out, would be the only way to defend it.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
if they go after Roy, they should offer one of their other OF's
not Colby, LUD or Bombs in a package that includes other parts. i know MO & Jeff have said no one is untouchable. but unless the Cards are blown away, those are the 3 OF’s i want them to keep the most.
like most, i have a special interest for Rick too. but until he shows me he can be healthy for an entire season, i’d still consider him more tradiable than the three i mentioned.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
i sure am glad to see i'm still in mid season form
yep, of course i meant matt. i tell you, i’d fubar my own funeral if given the opportunity
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
a preview of that funeral
gmd462 was a great guy…really he was…oh, this is gdm426’s funeral? Shit. That’s right. Well, still a great guy and all…lemme look at the rest of the speech right quick.
I certainly hope that is another case
of Strauss trying to be funny. If you are gonna trade him for one season of Holliday, why the hel didn’t they move him at the trade deadline for a bigger haul?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Miles
should be under our control this coming year. This should be his last arbitration year.
Since he was let go last year
before re-signing, is he still arb eligible?
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
I remember a chat with Mo and he seemed to imply that he was
I’ll see if I can find it.
found it
gocrdnls25: Q: What is the future of Aaron Miles in a Cardinals uniform? I know he is due up for arbitration this offseason, he has been pretty effective this year for us
Mozeliak: Mr. Miles is a 5+ so he to is someone we control for one more year.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080826&content_id=3370256&vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl
Errg
I hate the back button sometimes….I just had a long post about eligility yada yada… but basically here is the CBA Miles is eligible for arbitration still and Lopez might be, the only conditions are that you have more then 3 yrs of service time but less than 6, you may also be a “super 2” if you are in the top 17% of service time among those with less than 3 yrs.
I'm gonna pound the drum
Ben. Zobrist. He’s free, he’s blocked, he can be pretty good. The amount of roster flexibility that he would provide to us going forward would be incredible. The Rays are fine at catcher with Navarro making the obvious and reasonable-on-a-talent-level Anderson deal moot, but they no longer have the glut of OFs in the system. Daryl Jones would be a little too steep in terms of raw value but honestly in relative value that might be a reasonable deal. We NEED a shortstop and a cost controlled one at that. Either cut some corners elsewhere on LOOGYs or Dewitt can open up 5 mil more and that’d leave enough room for Lowe…no one can tell me that wouldn’t be the best team in the league. Regardless, Zobrist would give us much, much, much needed flexibility/production.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
Actually
Schumaker for Zobrist makes more sense. They’re on almost the exact same career path at different positions. Basically a year of service time, late-to-the-show production and both fill a need. Rays need an OF’er capable of playing right, we need a shortstop and they’re practically the same player. This makes lots—-and I do mean lots—-of sense to me.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist
doubtful
would be a perfect trade for us, considering we need to dump some OFs.
but since the whole league is gunning for young SSs, i doubt the Rays would just toss someone of his potential just for Skip.
Everyone really underrates Skip's season
He was 5 WARP OF’er in ‘08. Browsing around the league, there simply aren’t any free/cheap 5 WARP (especially lefty) CF/RF out there on teams that also could even use a SS let alone also have other outfielders to fill in. He’s a valuable chip. The Rays don’t need pitching, they don’t need any infielders: they need an OF’er and they need to improve going into next year (Red Sox had much better run differential). I might be underrating Zobrist’s value as well, as in we might need to toss another piece in as well, but Skip fits perfectly into their system/plan as well as he represents a significant upgrade going forward in their RF platoon.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I used "as well" 3 times in one sentence. I know. I'm sorry.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
OFs galore!
Our blatant excess is OF. Look at all the kids this year:
Skip, Lud, Ank, Barton, Dunc, Rasmus, Mather and all the other kids at AAA.
Since Rasmus has been proclaimed as the next great thing, you’d think our eventual starters would be:
Left: Luddy
Center: Rasmus
Right: Ank
As much as I like Skip, I don’t think we would miss him as much if we turned him into something we really needed (fill some of our blatant holes).
but 5 WARP
isn’t as hard to come by in the OF as it is at SS. He’s also basically a platoon player due to his ineptitude against lefties. I don’t think we could get Zobrist for him.
I need to get off of VEB
Fortunately the teams’ respective needs line up, the Rays can’t maximally use Zobrist. He might be in raw value worth more, but they can’t get much from him and as I said before there aren’t any other 5+ VORP outfielders that match up with what the Rays would need.
With Zobrist’s likely usage of 300-400 PAs he’s a 20-25 run hitter with about 10 on defense over replacement. Schumaker in 500 PAs against an even higher percentage of righthanders is a 25 run hitter (platooning him and taking out ABs vs lefties where he was below replacement helps him and they have a platoon partner with Gross) with 15-20 runs on defense over replacement. They’re picking up runs with playing time in account. Zobrist is a better player, Schumaker is a better fit. Is there a better deal out there anyone?
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I'm all for trying to get Zobrist
I just wouldn’t trade a good young SS for a platoon OF. Like you, I’m not too sure what the Rays’ needs are. Guess we’ll get a better idea over the course of the next couple of weeks but I think we’d have to offer someone w/ more upside than Skip to get Zobrist.
Oh I know, I'm not attacking you haha
Just defending my little trade idea. The Rays window isn’t very big with the payroll disadvantages they face and this upgrades them in ’09 and probably ’10 with Bartlett still being cost controlled.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I like the idea of getting Zobrist as well
but I think Gabe Gross filled the LH hitting OF the Rays were looking for
I'll toot the horn then...
I’d like to see Brandon Wood if Zobrist cannot be had.
The Angels OF is getting older (Vladdy 36, Hunter 32, Matthews 33, Anderson 32, Rivera 29. Reggie Willits only played about 250 innings in the OF this year…dunno if it was because of injury or the others being better.
You have Vlad and Garrett Anderson confused with each other
Anderson is 36 and will be 37 next year, Vlad is 32 and will be 33 before the start of next season. Neither is going to play a ton of outfield in the future.
Rivera isn’t much of an outfielder — I think they’ll probably have Matthews in left, Hunter in CF, and Vlad in RF next year with Anderson and Rivera DHing mostly.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
vlad sure looks older than 32 these days
i can certainly see why that confusion would be made. I wouldn’t be surprised to see vlad’s production completely fall off a cliff in the next year or two.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
I wonder what the recovery time is for double knee replacement???
Went to a non-Cards game against the Angels last year with my wife. She saw him hobble out to RF, started laughing and asking why someone like that hadn’t retired yet. She was very surprised when I told her his name and she realized how good he was.
Brandon Wood
Definitely my pipe dream of choice this off-season. He’s not a La Russa Guy, but then TLR’s surprised us before.
see now i like you already
Brandon Wood in ’09!
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
Word
I’d kill for Wood. 31 HR in AAA last year…23 years old…and, from what I understand, the Angels are slightly down on him because of his poor major-league production and their organizational glut of shortstops. He’s probably never going to be cheaper than now.
They're down on him because he didn't do squat
with regular playing time (150 at bats) down the stretch when they were looking for any middle infielder who might be able to hit more than 2 home runs a year and be somewhat competent. He hit the homeruns (5) but didn’t do anything else unless you count striking out (43 times vs. 4 walks).
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Wood = Reyes
Dominates AAA but can’t handle the Show
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 2, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Reyes
At least Reyes had some success. Wood’s done absolutely nothing.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
that's what I said about zobrist last year
this year, he put up an unlucky .844 OPS. Not enough PA’s to really prove that he can do it, but enough to make him seem like more than a AAAA player.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
that's one of my favorite drums
I wish we would have pursued that prior to him having such a good season.
I'd still like to see us.....
Find a way to dump JP too, and maybe resign Looper. That would also free up a little more cash for the SS position.
But what do we do if we somehow find, or end up with, a cheaper SS? What do we spend that extra cash on?
then
ownership pockets money. Theyre not going to spend it just to spend it. It also gives more flexibility to make trades
mid-season for high priced guys
Do you still believe that line?
That they save the money for a mid season acquisition?
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 2, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Izzy
How can they possibly consider wasting a roster spot on him?
I don’t care if he dazzles in Spring Training, once he makes the team no one has the nerve to take Old Yeller out back and DFA him before the season is over.
If he is healthy.....
I see no reason why he can’t be effective, like he has been his entire career. And if it ends up that he is not healthy, I don’t think they’ll hesitate, as much, to move him out of the closer’s role, or to DL him.
There aren’t many closer options out there. Some will disagree with this, but I think that next year, a healthy Izzy is > Perez. So we pretty much either go into the season with Perez/Motte as our closing options, and little to no backup behind them if they should fail, or we sign a guy like Izzy, and have 3 options.
I just puked in my mouth a little bit
31 Blown Saves
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 2, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't believe I'm about to do this
But Isringhausen has done this before i.e. come back from the dead. He was brutal in ‘06 and came back to pitch like an ace closer in ’07 (hell his FIP in ’08 was better than in ’06). With the caveats being that he is absolutely not guaranteed any role and it is cheap, bringing him back represents exactly the kind of low-cost high upside deals that we around here LOVE if we’d take the emotion-o’-Izzy out of it. He’s going to have had a long time to let the hip settle down and the forearm muscle might’ve been a bigger deal this year than anyone let on. I don’t trust LaRussa to follow through on that one caveat, but even then I think Mo has enough pull to keep things reasonable.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I wouldn't mind bringing Izzy back but not as the closer
If he isn’t given the closer role I wouldn’t mind having him back and I would like to see him get to 300 saves even if it is a bunch of 3 inning ones.
my problem w/ this idea is that
w/ such uncertainty about the closer situation, offering Izzy an incentive-laden contract means there’s a good chance he starts the season as the closer by default. I’m not opposed to Izzy on an incentive-laden deal, but I think offering him that right now, considering that LaRussa doesn’t like Perez and there’s no obvious heir apparent, means Izzy’ll be the closer if he “looks good” in the spring. I really love Izzy and think he is too maligned for his tenure in St. Louis, but I really believe it’s in the team’s best interest to just close the door. Thanks for everything, Izzy, and best of luck to you.
from your lips, to MO's ears
hopefully
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
hahahah!
“Ole Yeller”, you just made my day. I just laughed out loud and my students all looked up from their exam :)
Either that or that one hypocritical nightmare of a teacher everyone has had :)
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Stay professional
I only read VEB on my conference period. ;-)
"There is one word in America that says it all, and that one word is, 'You never know.'" Joaquin Andujar
I'm going to have to disagree on this one
If the deal is has a low guaranteed amount with incentives and he’s OK with the fact he might not be the closer the whole year I’d be happy about it.
As painful as it seems, the team was relatively quick to DL him when he got hurt and started stinking up the joint. Before that he was pitching very well. This year we at least have a couple of decent options if he does fail in spring training or early in the season.
If set up and followed through correctly it might provide the perfect situation to transition to Perez or Motte as the team’s next closer.
Talking out of both sides of my mouth
They let him rack up a -2.96 WPA. For reference on the magnitude of that, Ludwick posted a 2.32 WPA.
It took a 15 game period of getting torched to a Pujolsian .352 .438 .667, TWELVE ERA to get him out of the closer role. It took a long time.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Very true for the first go-round
I should have clarified my statement. They definitely did stick with him at first when no one knew what was going on. After the first mid-May DL trip they only let him negatively impact one game the rest of the season, the June 25th game at Detroit.
My thinking is they learned from the first fiasco this year and if they go into next year with that in mind we should be OK.
How about a private deal with Izzy
to stay for half a season? He gets his 300 saves and sends himself a bottle of champagne. They bring Perez up for good at the break and the fans get their sanity back?
Yeah, I know, it’ll never happen.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 2, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
We can dream can't we?
That’d be the perfect scenario and I’d personally chip in lots of internet money and possibly a little real world cash for a bottle.
do I remember things completely wrong
or did it come out that his elbow/forearm had been bothering him for “a couple weeks” before they DLed him. I still think that it was bothering him for much longer than that, and either Izzy didn’t tell the team about it, or they just let it slide. I really think the arm problems were the cause of his slide. It couldn’t have been just a coincidence, could it?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Tony's on record as saying neither Motte nor Perez
are ready to be closer. We all know this is bunk, but there it is. If that’s the mentality, it means either Isringhausen gets the job again or—more likely—someone like Brian Fuentes is brought in. Fuentes could potentially kill two birds in that he’s lefthanded. Some of the righthanded relievers are going to be gone. Right now there’s a passel of set-up guys and shortage of multi-inning types. Personally, I would rather see an extreme makeover in the pen, including trading Franklin and replacing Brad Thompson with one of the up-and-coming starters. I’m not sure if Marty Mason should be around another year, either. If Ty Johnson makes the club, that definitely frees up some cash earmarked for a LOOGy. But Tony probably won’t rely on Johnson as the only LOOGy, so someone like Ohman will have to picked up in free agency.
Tony’s on record as saying neither Motte nor Perez are ready to be closer. We all know this is bunk, but there it is.
Why? Even while being babied, Perez still managed to save only 64% of his chances. As bad as Franklin (68) and Izzy (63), Perez was no better. So what happens next year when teams have a book on him, he doesn’t get pulled before he completely implodes in the 9th, and he is run out there for nearly all save opportunities? We have a chance to be really good next year, why risk blowing that by running out someone who may or may not have success next year?
Perez has the potential to be really good. I see that. But closer isn’t a place to learn on the job, unless you play for a perrenially sucky team. STL is not that. I don’t know what role Perez needs to be in next year. Starting in AAA makes some sense. Starting as a setup man that will get a few save opps here and there also makes sense. Alot should depend on how he improves this winter, and how he does in ST.
There has been far too much debate about this
to restart it again here. But I will just say you make my point when you say “Perez was no better.” No worse, either, right? He’s not a bad option, and if he gets his slider improved a notch, he could be very good. I just think he either closes or he should be traded. Using him as a set-up man is a waste of his talents and not fair to him either.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 2, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
No worse?
Than Franklin or an injured Izzy? I agree.
IF Izzy is healthy next year though, he likely saves around 90% of his chances. That is what his history suggests, anyways.
And I agree about Perez’ slider, but I just don’t think it’ll happen overnight. He has been a closer for alot of years, and a pitcher for even longer. I’d say Motte has a better chance of making rapid improvements then Perez. JMO though.
And for the record, I’m not advocating Franklin to close. Clearly he isn’t very good at it either, I was just using him, a guy that got reamed for his failures, to show that Perez failed more often.
you're forgetting that Perez will get better
and that we have Motte as an alternate
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Rapid improvements for Motte
is a scary thought. He was already the most effective pitcher on the team by far – just ridiculous numbers. I have to laugh at all the hand-wringing about him not having a secondary pitch as I watched Papelbon destroy the Angels last night with nothing but his pitiful 94-95MPH fastball.
I think we all know that TLR can’t be trusted with Izzy. The only way he should be on the roster is if he can’t be used without the permission of VEB.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Perez as setup would be similar to Marmol
Many closers have started their career as 8th inning set up men including Mariano Rivera. One year of Perez shutting down the opponents in the 8th inning is far from a waste of talent. Trading him away because his isn’t annointed the closer for 2009 would be extremely short sighted.
Oh, I agree completely
But that means we either going to trade for a closer with one year left on his contract, or plan on trading Fuentes in one year, or sign a debilitated (rehabilitated?) closer to a one-year deal, like Billy Wagner, Izzy, maybe Trevor Hoffman. I just think Fuentes is going to be the guy. If so, Perez couldn’t close for at least three years, right? It’s a bit of a conundrum. I guess you could just use him as a set-up and trade him to a bottom-tier team as closer when you’re finished with him. I don’t really like it from a player development standpoint, though.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 2, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Perez was better
His FIP was better than both Franklin’s and Izzy’s and it wasn’t even that close. Perez was around 4.12. Franklin, I believe, in the 4.40’s and Izzy around 4.70. Not at all close. Save % tells us nothing about how good a pitcher is or how effective he’ll be in the future. It’s a worthless stat. Perez was better this year and there’s no reason to think he won’t be better next year.
Really?
List the save % for all the closers this season, and see if that doesn’t line them up pretty closely to how good they are. I don’t care if a closer can’t get a guy out when he is up 5-6 runs and just getting some work. A closer’s ONLY job is to close out games. I never said the save stat is perfect, but if you are comparing it across the board, I think it’s a pretty solid indicator.
And good pitchers get people out at any time period
Save% might be a decent statistic (when used in the context that they actually have a chance at getting a save unlike your usage above with Perez), unfortunately pure and simple effectiveness is a better indicator of future success. Lb’s long lost brother Joe frickin Borowski saved 84% of games last year: he’s pretty much out of baseball now…
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Yes
it is somewhat disingenuous to lump in all the blown saves as not every “save opportunity” means the pitcher is actually going to be given a chance to finish the game. After Perez’ recall from Memphis he had seven saves in nine tries, or 78%, which would be best on the team. Plus, there is a good chance he will be better next year. But Motte is really the man and should get plenty of chances.
Franklin needs to be Looperized or Wellyfied.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
and why wouldn't they Looperize him?
I doubt Franklin would mind them trying, what with the contract bonuses he could make if starting.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
we've had this conversation before
the only reason to use Perez’ save % is because it is a stat that makes it sound like your point has merit, which it doesn’t. Perez was used as setup guy for most of the year; in the 8th inning, blowing a 1-run lead counts as a “blown save” even if he doesn’t get credit for the “save”. He pitched in the 8th inning of 5 1-run games and “held” all but one of those- the one in boston where he entered with no outs and a man on third, which ended up being a “blown save”. None of those earned him a save, but an impossible situation cost him a blown save.
Add his “holds in save situations” and remove the BS that no one could have been reasonably expected to get out of unscathed, and his “save %” goes way up (77%).
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
Perez was better at FIP, not saving games.
Perez was better at FIP. He was no better at save %. Supporting your argument by declaring worthless the statistic that refutes it is not all that convincing.
Save % tells us nothing about how good a pitcher is? That’s an extrememly broad statement. You’re saying I should look at 41 for 41 and say, “That tells me nothing about how good Lidge was this year.”? Come on.
A closer earns his money by saving games. The Save measures how successful he is at that. Period. How can you say it tells us nothing? A guy either does his job and saves the game or he doesn’t.
Now, I will give you the argument that not all saves are created equal, and that some pitchers depend more on their defense, large ballpark, etc. to get saves than others. I also recognize that saves can be as long as 4 innings or as short as one batter. For these reasons I agree with the argument that gaudy numbers of saves are not necessarily a true indicator of a closer’s effectiveness (see 2008 Joe Nathan vs. K -Rod). But, save %? I have to disagree with your assesment of it as worthless.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Oct 2, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
not quite
A closer earns his money by helping his team win games, not necessarily by saving them. Certainly save percentage tells us something about a player’s effectiveness (although in many cases it doesn’t say all that much) but in Perez’s case, as SleepyCA argued, it’s misleading.
Perez wasn’t in the closer role all year, and save percentage isn’t kind to setup men. It also isn’t very good to pitchers who don’t pick up a lot of chances; to use Perez’s save percentage against him here is like saying, say, Troy Glaus isn’t a good hitter after a 2-20 slump. There just weren’t enough chances for Perez’s season line to shake off one rough stretch.
The difference.....
between your Glaus analogy above, and reality, is that I included ALL of Perez’ save stats for the year. You took a true slump out of the middle of the year for Glaus.
You're missing the point
Perez wasn’t given enough chances to determine how effective he will be in the future.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree
The future meaning 5 years from now? Absolutely. The future meaning 5 months from now? I have a pretty good idea. He’ll be solid/average, would be my guess. So if we can find an option that might be above average, or great, shouldn’t we at least explore it? Not everybody will agree with this, but I think Izzy has more upside NEXT YEAR than Perez does. Heck, I think Motte has more upside next year than Perez does.
if they aren't producing 5 years from now
it’s a moot point.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
perez or motte
it shouldn’t take that long to be effective… I could be wrong though, since I haven’t looked this up
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Izzy has upside?
Ok, I could agree with “he may be decent,” but that’s even more of a stretch than saying “Carp will give us 150 innings next year” IMO. There is no way Isringhausen has more upside than Perez. Perez is young, had success in the minors, and had some level of success in his brief time in the majors. Izzy is 36 and constantly injured. I don’t think anyone wants to see another chapter in the Izzy saga…
Piñata - something children beat relentlessly with bats. Piñeiro - .858 OPS against. Some call it irony; I call it destiny.
Read what I typed.....
I said Izzy’s best next year will be better than Perez’ best next year, IMO. If Izzy is healthy, he is a guy that can save 90% of his games. I don’t think Perez will be that good next year.
You are agreeing with me
I was responding to HC’s statement: “save % is worthless,” not the evaluation of Perez..
You say it yourself: “save percentage tels us something about a player’s effectiveness.” That’s not worthless.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Oct 2, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Save percentage is only
useful if you are applying it strictly to guys who actually have the opportunity to earn one. It is not meaningful if you compare one guy who, if he’s successful, gets to pass the opportunity to the next guy with a guy who, if he is successful, will actually get a save.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Really?
Correct me if I’m wrong here (and I’m sure someone will!) but if you are in that “pass the opportunity along” role, a blown save is the opposite of a hold. So, if you’re a 7th or 8th inning guy, as Perez was for part of last year, losing the lead you inherited counts as a “blown save” while keeping that lead counts as a hold, regardless of what the 9th inning guy does.
SO, yeah, I think you can still hold Perez’s blown saves against him, with the caveat that he wasn’t able to rack up successful saves to balance out the blown ones. Now, this raises the oft-discussed questin of whether he was not able to rack up saves because of the way he was used, or because of his ability. The sub-question is whether he was given enough chances to show his ability.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Oct 2, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course it says something
Every stat, even pitcher wins says something in the right context and caveats. You can tell Cliff Lee was awesome because he was 22-3. Could you tell Jake Peavy was pretty good because he was 10-11?
A ridiculously high save percentage (95+) assuredly means you were good. A low save percentage, especially when it isn’t REMOTELY, REMOTELY in the right context regarding a guy who was largely a setup man. It is absolutely, unequivocally worthless going forward. Do you really think Joe Borowski circa end of 2007 would be a better bet than Chris Perez now. He had a better save percentage!
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
*largely a setup man...means nothing
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Yay misleading save statistics
Perez “blew” a save at Boston in the 8th inning and the tied game in Pittsburgh. In chances where he actually had a chance for the save, he was 7 for 9. He posted better xFIP, FIPs than Franklin or obviously Izzy, he was the better pitcher last year while being used in unfamiliar roles and unlike Franklin he has significant chance of improving. Just as you say they have a book on him, I say it’s more likely he has a chance to refine his stuff and be more comfortable role. There isn’t a book on 96 and a mid 80s slider.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
thank you
i thought for sure that perez had been better overall than either of them despite the save stats, and you confirmed this for me. this is one of the things i love about VEB; somebody will look this stuff up.
can we all agree it’s far more likely that a still-learning and -improving perez is a better idea than a declining izzy or franklin?
Technically I'd say Izzy has just as much upside as Perez
He was a damn good closer. Unfortunately he’s ironically a far more risky proposition IMO.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I just don't get the Izzy love
Yes, he has been good in the past. But you are talking about a guy who has had significant injury problems two of the last three years. In each case, he kept the injury (or at least the severity of it) from the team and cost the team many games. There is certainly a significant chance that, no matter how good he might look in ST, that he will not only be injured again, but will conceal that injury. NO THANK YOU!
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
2003...
was a long time ago, but relying on Izzy’s health cost us the postseason in that year as well.
2007 wasn't very long ago
And a 3.78 FIP sounds nice to have in the pen.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
It seems further away
the older you get.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 2, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
It does indeed
But he wouldn’t be the first old guy ‘we thought he was toast’ reliever to have a magical season.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
keeping the injury secret
that is the main reason I don’t want Izzy back. Of course he could have a magical comeback and be a damn solid closer again, but I think it is more likely , with his injury history, that we get a repeat of 2006 and 2008 with Izzy. If this team is going to contend, they can’t afford to give away wins just so Izzy can try to get to 300.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Franklin yes
Izzy, if healthy, no. Izzy has been one of the best closers in the game the last several years, when he isn’t trying to pitch through an injury. Nobody on this board knows how healthy he will or won’t come back. Gotta trust that management will do their homework.
Of course, this is moot if management goes after a big name FA closer. I just don’t think they will though. Might give Fuentes a look-see, but I think he’ll want too much dinero, and he’ll want a guaranteed, full-time closer position.
ah. i understand your point.
and i would agree—if healthy izzy could be nails again, i have no doubt. i just think that’s a very big if.
the last several years?
I guess it depends on how you define several. In 2 of the last 3 years, he’s been among the WORST closers in the game — this year, holding the honor of being the absolute worst. If you define several as 7 or 8, I’ll give you that. But if you go w/ his most recent work, his most recent track record, he’s been positively awful.
yeah
But the problem is that either Izzy or the Cardinals—pick your own scapegoat—don’t seem to recognize or admit to the fact that he’s hurt until after he’d had the blown save beaten out of him multiple times in a row.
If he says he’s healthy but we can’t be sure until he’s effective then there’s still a concern that he might be completely ineffective and cost the team, instead of being able to take a flier on him with the knowledge that he might just end up on the DL and not hurt you. The worst case scenario is just worse than it should be.
that's the problem
if they do indeed roll him out there again, they need to give him a very short leash
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd think.....
By the time ST ended, we’d know if he were starting the season healthy or not.
I’m not saying that Izzy is a great option, but I think if we cannot bring anybody else in, he is a good alternative to going into the season with only Perez/Motte/Franklin. I certainly don’t want that, b/c Franklin shouldn’t close, and I think both Perez and Motte will have stretches where they struggle. At least Izzy is another option along the way if something does go bad.
every player has stretches where they struggle.
I’ve seen Izzy blow saves ever since he’s been here to varying degrees. Even in his prime his raw talent wasn’t as good as Perez or Motte imo. The question remains, however, if Perez and Motte will be intelligent pitchers, and will be able to place the ball as well as Izzy
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
while Springer probably will be back
it’s not a given
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
The Nice Thing
Is that since he is Type A Free Agent he will only come back to the Cardinals or retire
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 2, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Tony on record
The only related quote I could find was this link from Robert Falkoff on stlcardinals.com.
Right now, the Cardinals’ bullpen for 2009 is like an open book. Youngsters like Perez, Motte and McClellan could write their own chapters.
“If they think they are guaranteed next year, that would be a step in the wrong direction,” La Russa said. “They opened some eyes. They’ll come to Spring Training getting a legitimate look. But they’ll have to beat somebody out.”
Tony hasn’t announced either as closer, but I don’t see where he has said neither is ready. Both need to show up in shape and ready next spring then beat out Franklin for the job.
I saw this last week
I think Strauss or that alternative chat board had it. He said both were good, but neither was “ready.” It was quite an explicit quote.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 2, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
this makes everything fall into perspective
sure, they are not given definitive roles right now. as well it should be. to say they are definitely not ready though is going a bit too far; but maybe that’s Tony’s way of saying that they better be ready to compete and win the job… and there’s nothing wrong with that.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
It all depends
do you think Rasmus really didn’t play well enough to win the job in ST? TLR likes to set up these little competitions of his, but the rules are secret.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I think he played well enough...
but Barton had to be on the roster so Colby got squeezed. You could say he deserved to be on the team over Duncan, but enough so to be worth starting his arb clock? If Colby is on the team he should play almost everyday…Skip, Ludwick and Ankiel all earned their starting spots just as much as Colby and their clocks were already ticking.
good point
he definitely is not consistent, which could give rise to some player’s mental discomfort.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
he also said
In his next breath, how Ludwick, skip and Ankiel weren’t guaranteed a job when they came to spring training this year. They had to beat someone out. (Evidence by Juan Gone being in ST.)
Staus < Goold
Straus throws way too much of his opinion into stories for me to throw him from here to next monday.
And with my back, I shouldn’t be throwing anyone anywhere.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
Tony is also on record saying
That Perez can be groomed at the Major league level if they have back up for him.
OK,
First things first.
1) Sign Dave Duncan to a one year contract extension. That way at the end of ’09 when Tony leaves Dave can go with him. If Dave wants to stay we can talk longer deal then.
2) When the Tampa is eliminated contact them about Zobrist. I don’t think he would be too expensive. Maybe Mather. Suggest the players you think it will take to complete the deal, but it should be reasonable to do. If by some chance we can not make a deal for Zobrist or someone like him then resign Izzy2.
3 )Sign Lopez to a 2 year deal maybe option the 3rd. He is the new 2Ber.
4) Say goodbye to Miles and Kennedy. I like Miles stuck up for him in ’07 when everybody wanted his head on platter, and I am glad that he had a decent ’08. It is however time to go. Ryan can do his job.
5 )Put the extra salary room into pitching. We need another stater some folks want Looper. Some say elevate the kids. Well, I hope we have the time and the money to be flexible. Now that 18mil is being thrown around for Lowe I am backing off, but he is someone I would love to see in the BOB. Fuentes is another person I would mind them hiring. Rebuilding the pen is a must.
6) Get Schumaker a projection screen and project lefties on it. At the release point have a pitching machine and throw some BP. I remember an arcade game back in the seventies you could go up against Jim Palmer. I am sure with the technology something like that could be rigged up for him. LOL!
7) Don’t sweat the offense it will be fine. . No need to trade for Holliday.
Starting Line up:
Zobrist ss
Lopez 2b
Pujols 1b
Luddy rf
Glaus 3b
Ankiel cf
Molina c
SP
Schumaker/Barton
Play with it if you want. Maybe Schu leads off and Zobrist hits second and Lopez 9th.
Bench:
Freese
Ryan
Barton
Duncan
LaRue?
Rasmus and Anderson start the season in AAA. Do not trade them!
Zobrist
would most certainly bat 9th in any lineup to begin the season — he’s not great at getting on base and doesn’t have a ton of pop — if we still have Skip, he’s not getting bumped out of the leadoff hole by some rookie SS. Tony likes power hitters in the 2 hole, so that’s either going to be Lopez, Ank, or Rasmus for the majority of the year — assuming your roster is the correct one.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I can Zobrist
hitting second he has 12 hr’s in 198 ab’s. I know it is only 198 ab’s, but I think he does have pop. And a .339 OBP. I am really not all the troubled by the line up ‘cause we know how much fun Tony has playing with it. Hey how about this? Sign Izzy2 and trade for Zobirst. Ben takes Ryan’s bench spot, and has a year to continue to develop. Of course it would mean a one year deal for Izzy.
why two infield bench spots?
as i noted in another thread, the team has only one day off during the first five weeks of next year’s schedule. there will probably be some instances where they’re carrying only four bench spots. if schumaker’s back, you have to carry mather/barton to platoon him with, as well as another outfielder and a catcher, leaving just one infield spot. the second outfield bench spot would most likely be duncan, since he’s also the best backup at first base.
Either Duncan or Schumaker
will be traded. Unless they trade Rasmus or Ankiel first. No way there are four LH outfielders on the team.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 2, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
i wasn't taking potential trades in to account
just assuming we have the same outfield of Ankiel, Ludwick, Schumaker with Mather/Barton and Duncan on the bench. 3 lefty, 2 righty.
with Duncan's back
All I can think of is Jim Lindeman. We got nothing for him, and he had been a no.1 pick.
"The strike zone was slightly amorphic today." - Joe Maddon
re: zobrist getting on base
he had a career minor league OBP of .428, with a career minor league isolated patience of .110 – he never had a full season in the minors with an OBP under .400. This year, he had a MLB OBP of .339 despite a .250ish BABIP. Getting on base is his forte, not a weakness.
I can’t see TB moving him after this year, but if he was available, he’d be a perfect colution to our problems, and a perfect fit into either the leadoff or #2 spot in the lineup.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
Ryan
Why do you say he can do Miles’ job? He sure didn’t do it in 2008.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Oct 2, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
no
he wasn’t real impressive this year, and played over his head last. The talk around here is that he is a plus with the glove. I am taking everyone word for it. I did notice this.
Izy’s line for ‘08 in 362 AB’s is 311/ 296/ 249, and Ryan’s career in 362AB’s is 323/ 345/ 265. It is said that their glove work is equivalent .
???
where did you come up with that?
in 2008 cesar izturis had 414 at bats with a line of .319/.309/.263. which 362 at bats were you referencing.
brendan ryan’s career line is 377 at bats for .326/.345/.265
also, i thought the discussion was about ryan doing miles’ job, not izturis’.
This
is from a post earlier in the season. On 9/9/08 I wrote a fanpost about off season moves. It was wierd that on that day of my post they had the same ab’s.
Yes the discussion was about Ryan v. Miles but it changed to Ryan having a roster spot period. So I reference this post I made a while back. But I really don’t want to quivel about a MI back player. Choose whom ever you want. Do you want Miles back? plug him him.
no big deal
weird though how in brendan’s last 15 at bats, despite hitting .389/.333/.267, his career line remained at .326/.345/.365
I think Ryan had an off year
not that I think he’ll sparkle like he did in ‘07, but I think he’ll be better than ’08 next year
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
brendan ryan
can not do miles’ job. he can play a better shortstop than miles, that’s about it.
as far as i’m concerned, ryan’s had his shot. he can fill in here and there if injuries occur i suppose, but i’d much rather see barden, freese, greene, or others get a look at this point.
fine
fill his bench spot with someone else. it makes little differance really. They all will get a look this spring and let the best man win. Miles could very well be back because Tony seams to like him. I would think he would find a better offer somewhere else and move on.
I think you're dead on
Ryan’s numbers may improve through regression to the mean, but I think that he has developed about as far as he is going to. I’d rather see what the others’ means may be than see too much more of Ryan…unless he proves me wrong by tearing up AAA.
"The strike zone was slightly amorphic today." - Joe Maddon
Please, don't bring Duncan back.
We need a pitching coach that can work with more than one type of pitcher and is less set in his ways. If Petterson is available, that would be my choice.
SS, bullpen, another starter
I would be content to resign Izturis as our SS if we can get him for a decent price. We also need to shore up our bullpen in terms of a closer and a LHP. Why not try to kill two birds with one stone by getting Fuentes who I think will be a free agent this coming year. In addition, I think the chances that Carpenter will pitch more than a few outings this coming year is less than 50/50 (with or without surgery), so come spring training we may need to go out and try to find another starter. Given that both Pinero and Wellemeyers are 4’s or 5’s, we need to find someone who would at least be a #3 starter. Given all of the money we will need to spend on pitching, I think it makes sense to resign Izturis. He played well in the field and his hitting was okay. We could do worse especially if we don’t shore up the pitching.
I would call his hitting less than ok
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
.263 AVG .319 OBP .309 SLG 67 OPS+ is less than ok.
if he can continue to hit LHP to the tune of .304/.356/.366/88 he would make a somewhat decent platoon player… if the team somehow ended up with a lefty or switch-hitting shortstop who could only hit against RHP.
his defense is a huge plus, obviously, and could be a late game upgrade. problem is he’d be a terrible option off the bench otherwise unless there were a loogy on the mound. and the opposing team could easily just counter by bringing a rhp in to face him.
they need an everyday shortstop and second baseman or they’ll end up with four middle infielders on the roster again.
his a little expensive for a late game defensive upgrade... but I wouldn't mind seeing him back
if they either get an above average SS to start, or a beast of a 2B to make up for him starting at short.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
off topic
i’ve read here and there recently about the fact that OPS (and thus OPS+ i would imagine) “undervalues” OBP and “overvalues” SLG because OBP is actually the more important stat of the two, and has more to do with overall offensive production (rather significantly too; i’ve read that OBP is about 1.8 times as important as SLG). so my question: is there a handy-dandy stat out there on the interwebs that corrects for this, creating a sort of “revised” OPS (and/or revised OPS+)?
if not, i’m curious as to why nobody has done this, because it seems to be the most common critique of OPS.
hmm...
Top 10 MLB leaders 2008 – OPS / (OBP x 1.8 + SLG)
1. Pujols, Stl – 1.114 / 1.485
2. Jones, Atl – 1.044 / 1.420
3. Bradley, Tex – .999 / 1.348
4. Berkman, Hou – .986 / 1.323
5. Ludwick, Stl – .966 / 1.266
6. Quentin, CWS – .965 / 1.280
6. Rodriguez, NYY – .965 / 1.279
8. Youkilis, Bos – .958 / 1.271
9. Holliday, Col – .947/ 1.274
10. Ramirez, Fla – .940 / 1.260
The only big difference in that particular list is that Ludwick would drop from fourth to ninth. Kind of interesting.
I never noticed SleepyCA sponsors Ryan Ludwick’s BR page. That’s awesome.
seeing that
it would probably be a waste of time to get holliday, since he’ll drop out of the top 10 once he leaves coors
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
does coors have a bigger effect on OBP or something?
i thought it would have a bigger effect on slugging… maybe it’s both, i don’t know. obviously i don’t have an intimate understanding of the coors effect, just that it tends to make you better at “hitting”.
+1
the GPA stat, which can be found at the hardball times (www.hardballtimes.com) does this, and puts it on the scale of batting average so that it’s more accessible. Another great thing about GPA is that it is very easy to convert into “runs”, so you can readily compare two player’s impact to their teams.
Now, if only a GPA+ stat which takes park effects into account was available…
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
yeah, that's essentially what adieuordie did, except GPA divides by 4
if only i could find out where the 1.8 part came from…
it's an empirically-determined number
Tango sort of derives it here.
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
Can't you just convert it 1.8OBP+SLG=revised OPS
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
i could--like adiueordie did above, kudos to him
but i don’t know how exact 1.8 is, it’s just a number i vaguely remember. i have no idea where the 1.8 figure comes from—is it from correlations between OBP and SLG with runs created or some other stat? i have no idea, and unfortunately i can’t remember the rationale for saying “OBP is 1.8 times as important as SLG”, i just remember that i’ve read that more than once. sure it’s not exactly 1.8, and maybe it fluctuates by year for all i know.
furthermore, i am really interested to see if some sort of database does this automatically, updating it throughout the season, etc. ops and ops+ are pretty much the quick and dirty overall hitting stat of choice it seems, so i wonder if anybody has a better version of it in a more accurate form.
its hurting my head trying to figure it out
Whoever says OBP is 1.8x more important than SLG is probably taking the argument against AVG being so important to the next level. SLG is essentially the same as AVG, but adding another “hit” for every extra base a player hits for.
You can raise your OBP without raising your SLG, but you can’t raise your SLG without raising your OBP.
So, my conclusion is I don’t get it, I think.
right. i haven't been able to figure out the reasoning yet.
as Sleepy pointed out, the math you did is basically GPA, only they divide by 4 so it looks more like BA.
GPA looks a lot like EQA and that’s really confusing. there’s also something called wOBA which i don’t quite understand yet.
Sure you can . . .
“you can’t raise your SLG without raising your OBP.”
If by swinging more aggressively you convert, say, a quarter of your singles into doubles and home runs, while converting a quarter of your walks into strikeouts, your increased bases will probably outweigh your increased outs and your SLG will increase – but your OBP will actually decrease.
I think he meant in a single AB...
if you get out or get a hit you affect both your SLG and OBP. If you walk/get HBP you only affect your OBP.
Is there a quality of pitching adjustment, too?
I mean Manny Ramirez looks on paper about as good as Ludwick in 2008. But he was playing in the best division in baseball for the first 3/5ths of the season.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 2, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
well, the nl central may have the highest concentration of teams which are competitive in their league
but that’s different from saying it’s the division with the most talent. isn’t the average AL player still thought to be better than the average NL player?
I think that's the perception...
when the Manny trade came down I was listening to the radio and whomever was hosting the show made a comment about how the AL pitching was tougher and therefore Manny would hit better in the NL. Considering that in the past year Santana, CC, Harden and Haren had switched from the junior to the senior circuit I have to question how true this still is.
i agree with your skepticism.
i would think overall inter-league results would be a decent picture of who is better, but that’s a fairly small sample compared to a total year of baseball, and the difference in schedules is ridiculous. all-star games and world series are such small samples that they’re not really worth looking at.
I'd agree with the...
interleague play being the most accurate picture…unfortunately I don’t like he picture it paints.
Talent and winning and competitive I feel
are different things. Tons of guy have talent but can’t put it together. The cards may not have been the most talented team but they fight hard and utilized what they have same as the brew crew. I just think its two dif things.
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
i see what you're saying
i guess what i meant by “talent” was “true goodness”, or something like that. could the cards get the same results if they were dumped into the AL east? it’s really hard to say for sure, but clearly the consensus is still that the AL is harder to compete in overall. i have no idea whether that’s actually true.
As someone who was a fan of both the Carp and Pineiro deals
boy, those contracts are awful. Carp will probably never pitch again and Pineiro is flat out awful.
Think what we could have done with that $21 M.
Never again should we sign a pitcher to more than a 1 year deal unless than $6 M a year base. I’m tired of getting burned.
I can’t wait to feel the exact same way about Lohse’s deal next year when he returns to being Kyle Lohse.
sadly he's already well on his way to returning to form
i too fear this contract is going to bite the Cards in the ass big time.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
yup, we're not going to see an 11-2 first half from him again
judging from the 4.35 ERA in the second half.
"The strike zone was slightly amorphic today." - Joe Maddon
Could not agree more.
Though I can live with some 2-3 year deals. Spend money on projectable position players and roll the dice on pitchers.
Basically accept that no matter what you do pitchers are a gamble. Once you do that you can exploit the market.
The idea of using our farm system to trade
for a positional player just won’t work, as you can see by the matrix.
If you are going to give up cost controlled players, you’ll need to do it for cost controlled players. Unless DeWitt plans to up payroll to $120 M (which he won’t), they can’t afford to trade for a Matt Holliday type player who is coming up on FA.
This is why it is better to just hold on to Jones/Rasmus and hope one of them can turn into a BJ Upton or Jacoby Ellsbury.
He's not great
but he plays great defense and has amazing speed. He isn’t completely awful as a hitter and he’s still 24.
If we got Ellsbury production out of either of them next year, that’d be pretty good for league minimum.
by Hardcore Legend on Oct 2, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
made a pretty good
play last night
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
Something tells me if we get..
Ellsbury production out of a rookie they won’t be as well-known as Jacoby.
if we got ellsbury production out of them
it would be a terrible waste of a development year. It would be better to play skip/barton/mather and save the prospects for when they are ready to give us their peak years at league minimum…
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
Cubbies vs LA
I hope they(LA) can be patient with BiG Z the way they worked dempster. If they can get to him early thats the thing. I’m thinking he goes 7-8 allows 1 run and gets the win. I’m hoping for a disaster though. If big Z flops it very well could deflate the cubbies.
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
if the cubs win this series,
they will be only the fifth team to win a best of five after losing the first game.
not to defend the cubbies
but this is why I don’t like the 5 game series
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
aaaand 3 run homer for dewayne wise. sad face.
ack. double for jermaine dye. tough inning for shields.
yeah, got nothing against the guy. i'm just rooting for the rays.
iwamura triple drives in bartlett. 3-2 sox.
yeah, I knew that.......
I was just letting some people know who Dewayne Wise was….. I am sure some thought who the hell is that
I knew Dewayne a long time ago (back in 1999)
He was in the Reds organization playing centerfield for the Rockford Reds (now the Dayton Dragons). I worked in the front office in the sales dept.
I remember him as pretty quiet. I never hung out with him, that was the Corky Miller crowd, I think he spent most of his time with Gookie Dawkins.
Hell of a team. Absolutely demolished the Midwest League.
C – Corky Miller
1B – James Matan (scrub who never did anything)
2B – Gookie Dawkins
SS – Antonio Perez
3B – Brandon Larson
LF – Adam Dunn
CF – Dewayne Wise
RF – Austin Kearns
Their pitching staff was pretty good for the Midwest League. Their ace was a kid named David Therneau and they had an 18 year old named Jocobo Sequea Sequea was traded to Baltimore in the Juan Guzman trade. I believe Lance Davis was either a starter or a reliever on that team as well.
Btw, Corky Miller set the Midwest League record that year for most HBP. Not sure if he still holds the record.
Here’s their Baseball-Reference page.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
I'm rooting for the Rays...
But it would be great to see the ChiSox beat the cubs in the World Series, or they can both just get swept this week.
Obama/Pujols 2008.
all the cubs fans at work
won’t even talk about last night
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 2, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I really like Furcal
I think that would be a signing that would make a lot of sense for this team. SS needs to be answered, and I think it needs to be more than a 1-2 year fix this time – given the lack of internal options. So Furcal is the best choice on the FA market, by far. You could also trade the OF surplus to get it resolved too though, and get a younger and cheaper solution. I’m open minded to those possiblities too, if the deal is reasonably fair.
If you're saying we need to sign Furcal...
to more than two years I’m not sure I’m on board with that. He’s a big injury risk IMO, and anything longer than two years is too risky. Besides that we do have some potential at SS down in the lower rungs of the minors…Kozma and Nico…these guys could be ready by 2011. I LOVE Furcal on a two year deal MAYBE a third year option (not likely). I have a feeling he’ll be out of our pricerange – regardless.
I love a 2 year deal
I don’t know if that is realistic though. 2 years with an option for a 3rd would be best. I’m inclined to go ahead and give a 3rd year to him if that is a dealmaker though, and I suspect it would be necessary if we were going to pry him away from LA. I’ve come to the conclusion that if we are honest with ourselves, 2011 is a pretty optimistic timeline for either Kozma or Niko. And there is no one at a higher level that I see a need to make room for.
Again though, if we can deal our OF surplus to get something younger, cheaper, yet still productive then I am all for it. I just don’t like to speculate on what the trade markets will be like too much because I really don’t know.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 2, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll keep beeting the drum
for kelly johnson. as nice as furcal would be, A much cheaper and safer way to improve the middle infield would be to focus on second base. the former first round picks line a year ago was 276/375/457, until bobby cox told him to be more aggressive this season. he’s 26, has a strong minor league line of 281/363/484, comes cost controlled, and even though not a defensive wizz, won’t hurt a team either. If the team can add a fourth .370 obp player from the middle infield, and maybe one from the last corner spot with some combination of the young players, I wouldn’t be too horrified to bring back the relatively cheap stop gap of izturis.
Sure beats dishing out a multi year contract for a shortstop with back issues.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
+1
Trade for Johnson and Sign Renteria for 2 Years
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 2, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
as I said yesterday and maybe others have said here
Something needs to be done to provide carp insurance.
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
I think Carp now falls into
The Sub Prime market and won’t be able to get any insurance
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 2, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
think we could get
the administration to give us a bailout?
"All I am saying is give Freese a chance!" -- nmstar
Why Not
In the bill the senate passed had money in it for Nascar
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 2, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i meant get another arm
someone to take the load when he cant go
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
we will need the money from the bailout
to be able to afford another arm
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
RE: Zobrist
Why are we assuming that the Rays would part with Zobrist? I think I might have missed out on something…
This guy seems like an amazing asset for the Rays and superficially looks like a serious upgrade of Bartlet offensively and is at least as good if not better defensively. Is there some SS prospect in the rays system that’s for sure going to have a shot with the Rays next year? Would Aybar play SS for them? If I were GM, I would much rather have Zobs than Bartlett in the line-up.
"Never judge a taco by its price" - Dr. Gonzo
They have...
Brignac who is supposed to be great, and is pretty close to ready. He was drafted out of high school in 2004 and spent 2008 at AAA. Zobrist looks like the better player right now to me, but he’s five years older than Brignac (27 vs. 22). If I’m the Rays I keep Zobrist while I’ve got the young core together and see if I can spin Brignac into a young stud reliever and more. How ‘bout Motte or Perez for Brignac? Not sure if I’d do it…
Actually
I took a look at the Rays’ prospect depth chart and they have this Reid Brignac guy. 22yr old drafted 2nd round that has done nothing but hit throughout the minors. I guess he might have a higher ceiling than Zobrist. Hell, I’d love to have Zobrist, too.
"Never judge a taco by its price" - Dr. Gonzo
offseason ideas: position players
2B hudson(A) > figgins > flippy
SS Wood> Zobrist > Escobar (either one)> Furcal(B) > O. Cabrera(A)
that translates as plan A > B > C > etc (Elias type)
and for TLR’s impact bat how about Milton Bradley? I assume his knee will be able to take playing left next season and he’s supposedly gonna be a type B free agent
rasmus remains the heir apparant in CF to Ankiel which would transpire no later than opening day 2010 (when we no longer control Ankiel’s rights) and probably sooner given ank’s inability to stay healthy.
Skippy or Mather becomes trade bait, Dunc presumably remains to try and rehabilitate some semblance of value to us or to someone else
A question……why is Ludwick arb eligible? Cots has him listed as only 2.109 years of ML service. Has it got something to do with time from signing original contract or something?
Add the 1 Year of Service time of 2008
Than that equals 3 years of ML service, Now he is on his first Arbitration
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 2, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Salaries are...
and he keeps up with trades/signings, but not years of service. Those are updated sometime in the offseason.
Holliday Revisions....
Anyone out there that could take Hollidays average production and estimate his production for next year if he played half his games in St. Louis.
Then plug him in the four hole in a line-up simulator and see what effect he would have on the offense?
I would settle for step by step instructions…
"Why does he keep saying that?"
Lillibridge?
I see the name Zobrist a lot…what are our thoughts on Lillibridge? Buzz surrounding the Braves is that they’re down on him and would be open to trading him.
He's definitely a buy low candidate
But they cannot go into the season with him penciled in as your starter. Dude was horrible last year.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Joaquin Arias
That’s another name I’d be interested in if the asking price is right. We would need to pick up a couple MI for 1-2 years deals as insurance, but that could be the long term speculation play.
If they like him in Texas too much, then you could ask about Andrus, but I suspect Andrus is really the guy they really want to hold on to to replace Young eventually.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 2, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Just read the off-season needs
For the D-backs over at MLB traderumors. I know that these are all speculation from a Cubs fan. He speculates Arizona is in need of an OFer with high OBP and SLG. They also have a hole at 2nd with the loss of Cabrera. They look like a good fit for MO to work out a deal with.
Pipe dream for me, Dirt for Kennedy and Shumaker . . . they get their OFer with a high OBP (i know I’m ignoring the SLG) plus they get a 2 bagger. I know this will never happen and it opens up an even bigger hole for them at SS and doesn’t address the SLG problem, but this is my dream here, don’t cloud it with reality!
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Im confused...
is dirt a player or actual dirt? I assume you mean Hudson not Cabrera? Are you really wanting to trade away Schu to get someone else to take Kennedy? I’d much prefer to just dump AK than to ship Skip for nothing.
D'oh
Yeah, sorry, I meant Hudson . . . got crossed up on my Cabrera’s . . . “Dirt” is, of course, Stephen Drew. IMHO Drew would be a much more significant addition to the team than the loss of Skippy. Plus, OF is going to be where MO makes a move from, if there is one to be made.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
The "dirt" on "Dirt"
Hit .291 this season w/ 21 HR and 67 RBI while scoring 91 runs. OBP at .333 for the season and .328 for his career. Filled lead-off spot for Az most of season from what I can tell.
All of this is moot, of course, because there is no way AZ is looking to move a young, talented, team controlled SS with no clear replacement in line.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
When I think of Arizona trading Drew
the word “never” comes to mind.
At least in regards to the foreseeable future.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Thats why I said
It is my pipe dream and asked you to please not ruin it by clouding my dream with reality.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
i am with you on that
imagining Drew at SS? I might even be okay with Rasmus in that deal, but don’t hold me to that.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
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