But Ankiel is gone in 2010. Let me repeat myself Ankiel is gone in 2010. If he has a good year he could fetch anywhere from $40 to $50 million dollars and I don’t think the Cardinal’s are or should be prepared to pay that.

He will not give the Cardinal’s a home town discount. Boras takes his clients to the free agency market and takes them to the highest bidders. Players sign Boras cause they want him in control to get them paid.

beckett i would say is a win for the sox since they got championships out of it in large part due to beckett. however, even if santana and haren work out (doesn’t look good for either missing the playoffs this year) that’s still only a 42% chance this works out.

and sabathia, bedard, and mulder were all monumental failures so its also a 42% that happens. granted, its a small sample size but it still makes me very uncomfortable.

not to mention some of the stats saying that this year was peavy’s worse since 2003 despite the shiny era.

giving up an everyday player for a high risk position player, aka pitcher, isn’t good economics or baseball management. the only way this make sense to me is if ankiel goes rather than rasmus. as noted above and previously, signing rick is a very limiting step, particularly after forking over for lohse. i’d rather, at this point, give up a draft pick and sign burnett or equivalent. not to mention that having peavey on the books at 22m, what will albert have to get?

than its totally worth it

really cripples the team’s flexibility. Mo’s first smudge, IMO.

but just becasue the Cards try to keep payroll around $100M doesn’t mean the CAN’T go higher. if the ownership group wanted to increase payroll they could, I do not agree with the phrase – “we can’t afford”.

now, it might not be a prudent way to spend money, nor give the team the best chance to win in the long run – but as far as afford goes, they can afford it.

“to” should be a “from” in those cases.

maybe I’m dense

but he is tough. he pitched at least one of those series with broken ribs. i think he is an ace—he is a swing and miss guy, he’s consistent, he’s got the hardware on the mantle . . . he is more of an ace than anyone else the cards have. the trade could turn out to be nasty . . . if everything falls wrong, peavy could get hurt, carp could stay hurt, lohse could regress, welley blows out his elbow, wainers finger pops again, the mang’s elbow gives out (or he is the newest victim of the curse of paletta)—all of those injured stars would be so much dead weight it would sink the cards—but the opposite could happen. peavy could be a stud, carp could come back, wainer could never worry about the finger again, and so on—and if that happened, the cards would be a monstrous team. a 3 headed cy monster of peavy-carp-wainer would be scary good in the playoffs.

he has a contract through 2013

I posted on the open thread yesterday about not being able to swing it w/out Rasmus due to the competition, but I think we may be able to go volume rather than colby.

If we gave two good OFs, Jones and say Mather, give Todd and Ottavino or Mortensen (higher upside guys), and throw in another prospect, then I think we can trump value in some way, without completely mortgaging future. Yes depth would surely be sacrificed, but the long term doesn’t look that bad. Rasmus would still be with us, allowing us to let Ankiel leave if he doesn’t sign a mutually friendly contract. We would still have Garcia/Boggs who could fill the back of the rotation if Welley or Carp is hurt. Our OF depth would suffer a bit at the lower levels, but Schu could be #4, Barton #5, and give Stav and others a chance to develop more, and maybe even get Wallace or Craig some time in the OF to mature.

Tertiary thoughts; Does anyone else wish we still had Anthony Reyes? San Diego was high on him, If i’m recalling correctly, and he seems like the perfect MLB ready, starter to slot in now for a rebuilding team—innings eater and upside. Also, would San Diego be at all interested in Brett Wallace? I know the guy can hit, but would Wallace and Jones/Mather be enough of an upside that San Diego feels it could work? I personally am more attached to Rasmus due to his tools (speed, defense, OBP) and position (CF and potential Leadoff hitter). Wallace, is blocked by all accounts by solid prospects-note i did not say better, but Freese/Craig and Pujols/Mather/Duncan are still solid baseball players.

I do think we’re able to move on easily if this doesn’t work, but I think MO HAS to see what he can do. Try to package a Wallace/Jones and Mather with two pitchers from Todd/Mortensen/Ottavino/Boggs, and an organizational throw in and see what can be done. If they give up Greene, then fine. I personally like him more than Iz2, but potato potato.

every season since his rookie year.

He’s had three 200 IP seasons.

Feel free to speculate, but Peavy’s history doesn’t suggest that he’s an injury risk.

I can’t see how the organization that was taken by surprise that Matt Clement couldn’t pitch … is mysteriously going to avoid making a mistake of Mulder-sized proportions.

If we bet the farm on a guy, I damn well expect to have more than “speculation” from the guys in charge.

My gut is telling me Peavy is Mulder 2.0. I am not a fan of selling the farm on “Proven” commodities. Go ask the Yankees how well that is working out for them. Having young, hungry, cost controlled players is essential to building a championship ball club. Count me among the bears on this issue.

with, say, Jay Bruce or Hunter Pence, even Nate McLouth? Where were they at the same stages of their careers?

its just this specific deal shrinks our window. i think if we got a young, cost controlled pitcher i would be more inclined to like the trade. however, the hit we take to payroll will keep us from making improvements to other areas to the team.

and because of that if he gets injured it sinks our team for years. trading for a younger cheaper pitcher would have less impact if they were to get hurt.

I am all for an internal solution at closer.

for some reason i just don’t think this will make larussa happy. sure he’ll like getting peavy, but because of his pricetag we won’t be able to get that established closer he wants and he won’t be able to get the impact bat he wants.

plus perez will more than likely be included and that weakens out bullpen even more.

Harden is on a two-year deal, not a five or six-year deal. And he’s injured so much, you have to believe you’re only acquiring 2/3rds of a pitcher. A very good 2/3rds….but still.

i see cc and sheets and what the crew ended up with, ie, no brass ring. huge dollars for an every 5th day contribution with high injury risk doesn’t seem good to me. it’s not how many innings jp has pitched, it’s how many he has left.

’09 lineup

Schumaker
Ankiel
Pujols
Ludwick
Glaus
Greene (only hitting this high if he reverts back to his 27 homerun production)
Molina
Pitcher
Lopez

bench

Mather – would get lots of p/t in place of Skip
Miles
LaRue/back up C
Freese – they really need to get him some time at other positions (OF/1B)
Barton or FA/Duncan/Jay

Rotation

Peavy
Wainwright
Carpenter
Lohse
Wellemeyer

Pen

Springer
Franklin
Motte
McClellan
Perez
2 lefties

I don’t know how the money shakes out (especially with dumping AK and Pineiro) but it’d be a fun team to watch.

And I really believe that both Daryl Jones and the Walrus have a legitimate shot at being ready by 2010, so ditching Rasmus isn’t like giving up on the building from within model.

personally I am a bigger Wallace fan but that is me…

The Padres would be crazy to base that trade around someone who has to be named a PTBNL. What if Wallace tears up his knee , shoulder, or just plain doesn’t hit this season. If people are gonna insist on the using the PTBNL as a stand in for Wallace, why do they get pissed off when others call them out on it?

…(aka known as “blowing it up and starting over”); Peavy doesn’t want to wait for the Pads to be ready to contend again. Dunno if the Cards have the pieces to fit, or if they have to “overpay” in the deal. Atlanta might offer more attractive pieces to the Pads, but when will they be contenders again?

“Does peavy have good timing in his mechanics?”

No.

- Analysis of Jake Peavy’s Pitching Mechanics

“What is the risk he carps out in the next five years?”

Moderate to High.

2009 is over before it even began.

he is even less “proven” (i don’t like that word) than rasmus is. i don’t get how some of us can use “rasmus might flame out” as a reason for this trade and then say its ok because dj is in the wings.

If Peavy’s available and healthy, then yes — that would be an excellent reason to snap him up. It’s thinking in the long-term, since it’s not like the Cubs are going to get cheap.

If we’re doing it to win now, though, then I’m a bit more gun-shy about it. We did a lot of building lately, and it’d be a shame to tear out the foundations so soon. I think it’s possible to go the middle path: make a big deal to stay competitive within the division, as opposed to building a juggernaut to Win Now.

Frankly, what I want to see more than a good deal is if they take care of the details. I’m tired of the fortune cookie method of trading for key positions. I would love to be proven wrong on that one, that these guys aren’t all “pleasant” or “disappointing” surprises.

that no one shows up to watch?

You bring up a good point. Are there other top-drawer pitchers or middle-infielders we could grab with this kind of package? Not too many come to mind, actually. The Rangers have a pretty nice middle infield.

there is absolutely no mention of him being on the block whatsoever. They already have a CF in Cam Maybin.

I also think it is a terrible idea considering the package. It goes against the FO policy that was stated when the fired Jocketty and kept Luhnow around.

If this trade were to happen it would be going totally against the philosophy that the org. put out that they were going to try to build from within. The only way a trade like this makes any sense is if the FO decides to drastically increase payroll over the next several years, otherwise this might be great for one or two years, but where are you gonna find money to improve the roster later? And where are you gonna find money to re-sign Pujols?

I was going to post the same thing but you said it better than I would have.

Just say no to the “win now” crowd (cough cough Tony cough). Grow from within. We can’t afford that much money tied up in a “second” ace pitcher while simultaneously getting rid of our best everyday player prospect and several other cost controlled youngsters.

Wrong direction. I’ll pass.

cub write up predicted the bears spending $150m next year unless someone buys the team and stops it. we are not going to compete with them without some below market signing luck, and i don’t think giving up cheap everyday prospects for an expensive pitcher, even if he has been outstanding, is smartt

you bring up a good point. Trading Rasmus in this deal would almost necessitate the Cards’ signing Ankiel to a long-term contract worth $10-12 M per year. OTOH, using so much money on Peavy, in addition to the amount allocated for Carp and Lohse already, may make signing Ankiel cost-prohibitive. And what if we try to sign Ankiel and lose him and end up w/ an OF of a 32 year old Ludwick, Skip, and Mather? Are we truly better off? Well, 1 day out of 5 we would be.

In another thread, someone pointed out that the Cardinals should have scored 66 more runs than they did last year. I did research to find out that the Cardinals should have scored the 4th most runs in the league last year. We were a little inconsistent, but young. Would another year of Skip learning how to hit lefties and our MI hitting at all be better? Now, if Ankiel and Ludwick both can stay healthy and consistent…I’d say that the offense is more than fine. If one of them does close to what Ludwick did last year, we’ll be fine. If both of them slump, then we’ll be screwed. I don’t see BOTH of them slumping. So…I think the offense can only get better.

Jake Peavy went 6.43 I/G last year and kept his team in nearly every game. That is much better than Pineiro’s 5.75ish I/G last year in which he kept his team in about half of them. Not only does that take the bullpen’s workload down by 2-3 outs (3-5 batters) every 5 games, it also gives the (should be) #4 offense in the league a chance to win more games. It keeps relievers more fresh, especially very young (Motte/Perez/McClellan) relievers and very old (Springer/etc.) relievers that might be on the team. It also puts them in opportunities to succeed more in the regular season because we may not only be up by 1 or 2 in the late innings of those games. We might have a 3-6 run lead (or so)…enabling them to get time in to work on specific things (working a slider low in the zone, etc.)

Not likely.

As far as I know I am the first one to call him “The Cheese”

if they had DL’d him in July. He had an .890 OPS before the ab injury, and a .594 OPS after, and it seriously affected his fielding as well. He probably lost 10 runs on fielding alone in that time.

I think the Anderson/ Rasmus combo should be included in all variations. The more flexable parts of the deal would likely be the caliber of SP and RP included. The better the RP (i.e. Mott or Perez), the less likely the Cards should be to give up Todd. Seems like in a deal the cards should trade either Todd or Perez, but not both in the same deal.

if Perez is one of the two pitchers. Rasmus, Perez and Mortensen/Boggs/Todd.

Is no price too high for some? Some seem to be all for this trade regardless of what it costs us.

the Cardinals, who should be considered the front-runners in terms of resources and desire, did not put enough on the table. From the looks of it, the Braves should be close, but are probably reluctant to part with Escobar. The Brewers don’t know if they can re-sign Sheets yet, and if they can, he would probably be their first choice. The idea of the Astros is absurd, IMO. They would have to trade Pence and Rodriguez, probably, and their farm system is near last already.

But Peavy’s in command really. If he doesn’t want to go to the AL, he doesn’t have to. There might a wildcard out there, like Philadelphia, but who else really has the goods? Can’t see Chicago dealing Vitters and taking on another fat contract—especially with the sale in process. The Mets don’t have the farm system, as I understand it. The Marlins don’t have the budget. Who am I missing? Don’t say the Dodgers. That’s crazy talk.

however, once again, the padres are trying to get rid of salary and it would be idiotic of them to accept AK’s salary. They won’t, and they don’t have to even consider it because half a dozen other teams will be perfectly willing to not dump salary on them. Replace AK with a pitcher and you might have a deal worth pitching to them.

i think the pads are in a bad position right now with sabathia, sheets, and burnett as free agents. his contract isn’t that much better than the ones they will sign and you don’t have to give up high level talent.

It may cost us a win or 2 from that SP slot, but save us a lot more in the OF and in the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation.

that the team was only likely to add a 5th SP type I dont see them all of a sudden going after the preeminent FA SP on the market. Knowing that, I would have to think that if MO is seriously considering making a play for Peavy and also Greene which would add around 20 million in salary he would have to be thinking a couple of things.

1. He would want to dump salary in return. This makes the AK scenarios sensible but I agree that SD wouldnt really want AK unless they were just desperate to dump as much salary as possible.

2. He would probably want to get some future paydays off the books, namely Ludwick and/or Ankiel. If he pitches the trade off between picking up Peavys contract against not having to sign one of the two to a long term deal, DeWitt might be more ameable to give consent. The problem here is as discussed, SD would be in the same position regarding the contract so they would have to pay either player as well unless they could flip them at the deadline next year.

So if MO offers – Ankiel, Anderson, Kozma, Todd and take your pick of another arm is that enough?

I don’t see any other options besides keeping Schumaker if you trade Rasmus.

But he should star the year at AA. Last year was out of nowhere-ish enough to make him have to prove himself again at AA, at least for a month or two, before he heads to Memphis, IMO

Doesn’t fit the financial profile.

Now all we need to do is sign the top 3 free agents to trade them for said pitchers, so that we don’t have to spend any of our prospects for these stud youngsters at league minimum. Then MLB 2k9 (or whatever) will shut off unexpectedly and we’ll have to do it all over again before we can start our franchise.