Charlie Manning's War
To think—we were just complaining about having to wait for some hot stove action and here it is. I, for one, never expected the Cardinals to even compete in the Charlie Manning sweepstakes, but I suppose the Yankees were scared off by his price tag.
In all honesty I love signings like this, the NRIs and the waiver wire pickups, even though they tend to amount to nothing. (This time last year the Cardinals were checking John Wasdin and Dewon Brazelton for dings and bruises.) We microanalyze so much about the big things—who'll start, who'll close, who's a prospect, who's not—that these insignificant signings are the last realm of the real Hot Stove discussion, where the basis of your argument for a player can be "I like him" or "he's looked good in Spring Training."
Having said that, of course, I'd like to microanalyze him a little.
Manning's surface stats indicate a guy who has no idea where the ball's going. He walked four guys per nine innings in AAA, and after getting his call-up with the Nats he walked six, which is Mitch Williams territory. He also managed to give up eight home runs in his forty big league innings, one of which did not endear him to a Washington Post headline writer.
But there are some silver linings. For one thing, his AAA numbers are not entirely without merit; he's managed to strike out nearly eleven per nine innings in both stints. For another... take a look at his splits and you'll see a classic LOOGY tendency playing itself out in his numbers.
| vs. | PA | K% | BB% | HR% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| left | 89 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 4.5 | .203 | .284 | .392 |
| right | 100 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 4.0 | .247 | .414 | .468 |
That doesn't look like command issues so much as abject terror against batters who can see his breaking ball all the way through. It's the same platoon split you'll find in specialists like Chad Bradford or our own Mike Worrell, though it's easier to do when you're a righty looking for other righties. Randy Flores didn't have much of a platoon split, even when he was getting other people out, and Ron Villone just walked everybody, so this would be a new weapon in the bullpen, the kind of specialist that will require extremely close monitoring by TLR—which is to say I'm sure he's very excited.
I lost the rest of this post to a terrible SBNation accident, and I have to get to class. So allow me to wrap up with a thought experiment, so as to keep us from thinking ALCS-related thoughts any longer than necessary.
Let's say Moz is really busy, sometime in the near future—signing a shortstop, maybe—and he's got to offload some things to keep his schedule light. So he hands you a cashier's check for $5 million, and he says: fix the bullpen. Please. You've got your sure things, like Franklin, Perez, McClellan, and Motte, and you have some wildcards, like Worrell, Kinney, and Tyler Johnson, who may or may not be effective this year. They're already getting paid.
Your mission is to take your $5 million, pick up a combination plate of free agent relievers from this unimpressive menu, and come back to Moz with a bullpen you won't feel terrible about. (I have my eyes on one of Juan Cruz or Jeremy Affeldt, personally.)
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Hmmm...
I like the “assignment”. Unfortunately I’m eating up $3.5 million real quick on Springer. Leaving me with $1.5 mil that basically needs to go to a lefty specialist (or two). Of course Marte and Ohman are probably at the top of everybody’s list, but no way they sign for $1.5 mil. I’d make an offer to Rhodes for the full amount on a one year deal – if I get both him and Springer (along with Perez, Motte, McClellan, Kinney, Franklin, Manning and/or TJ) I think that makes for a pretty good pen. Worrell is still available in case somebody flames out…what about Thompson?
If I can’t get Rhodes to bite…I’ll offer the same deal to Beimel then Shouse…hopefully it’s enough to land one of the three.
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 17, 2008 11:01 AM EDT
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Two of
(in order) Ohman, Beimel, Rhodes. Springer has been good, but the real need is from the left side. There are no internal answers for the left side. Springer’s slot will have to be filled by Perez, Motte, Kinney in some combination.
by vinniefromjersey on
Oct 17, 2008 11:12 AM EDT
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No answers
Not true. Ty Johnson was very good not so long ago. Post shoulder surgery (three trays full of cottony “junk” was removed from his shoulder) he may be good again. I wouldn’t count him out.
by Red in Chicago on
Oct 17, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
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See
Carpenter, Chris; Mulder, Mark; Clement, Matt. Let’s try to avoid the going down the “hope” road.
by vinniefromjersey on
Oct 17, 2008 6:15 PM EDT
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Regarding TJ
he is not only trying to come back from shoulder surgery, but from a trip to the TLR doghouse. I recall he and Duncan were very displeased with TJ’s level of fitness when he reported last spring.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on
Oct 17, 2008 7:14 PM EDT
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Affeldt
I haven’t looked at the stats, or more importantly, the splits, but I wouldnt mind seeing this hard throwing lefty present come spring training.
by t7rick on
Oct 17, 2008 11:33 AM EDT
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D.C. Scrap Heap
What’s with our snatching up the Nats’ castoffs? Lopez and now Manning. The Lopez experiment went well, although I’m hopeful his OF stints are far less in number next season (after TLR goads Mo into re-signing his dull utility knife). Hopefully, in a TLR-micromanaged ‘pen, he’ll find success with controlled exposure.
Where they plug McClellan in has a great impact on this question. Will they insert him into the rotation if a FA starter can’t be had at the right price? Lets assume that another starter is acquired in some way, shape, or form. That makes the list of relievers already on the roster like this:
RHP: Perez, McClellan, Motte, Kinney, Thompson, Jimenez
As an aside, the Official Site’s Depth Chart has Perez listed as the closer. Hmmm. Tea leaves? Could “Young Pitcher” be next year’s designated closer?
LOOGYs: Manning
This leaves us $5M for two LOOGYs and a righty to come in and “compete” for a ‘pen spot. The top two lefties, in my opinion, are Affeldt and Ohman. (I’m assuming the Yankees will pick up Marte’s option.) I would sign one of those two with an aggressive push. Then, I’d have a Spring Tryout between Tyler Johnson, Manning, and another scrap off the heap. I’d also re-sign Izzy to a minor league deal and allow him to compete in Spring Training for a roster spot with an eye toward him filling the Springer role. (I know this virtually assures him making the club and I’m okay with that.)
As an aside, shouldn’t MLBTR list relievers by throwing arm? It’d make this exercise a lot easier.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on
Oct 17, 2008 11:44 AM EDT
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Aside Comment - Active Roster
Looking at the Official Site’s active roster for the OF and one will find a switch hitter among the group, our very own Felipe Lopez.
by ubeddie on
Oct 17, 2008 12:45 PM EDT
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I didn't even notice
That’s scary. Perhaps TLR has more say in a player’s classification on the Official Site’s Active Roster than I originally thought…
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on
Oct 17, 2008 12:49 PM EDT
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I think i just threw up a little!
ugghh….
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on
Oct 17, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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He was listed as an OF
as soon they signed him, for some reason.
by adiueordie on
Oct 17, 2008 1:38 PM EDT
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Im no roster matrix genius, but...
We can carry 7 bullpen pitchers, right? I know Crazy Tony rears his ugly head sometimes and we wind up with 13, but for the sake of argument let’s go with 12.
I like to build a ’pen from the back end going forward.
1. Perez HAS to be pencilled in as closer.
2. Setup guys will need to be Motte and Franklin.
3. Then, we need to look at what long relievers we have. Since we signed Loshe, and assuming Carp is healthy, we will have Thompson and KMac in at that role. I have a feeling we will need 2 long relievers, since one will probably pitch every 5th day along with the Pinball machine.
4. Soooo, that leaves us with 2 spots.
Tony will INSIST on having 2 lefties, even if they are crappy ones, on the roster. That makes me feel bad for Josh Kinney, although he and Thompson can compete for mop-up duty, with one being with the big club and the other being in AAA waiting for an injury.
I would love to give TJ every shot at making the big club. I personally would only go after 1 free agent, and if TJ can’t hack it, we can trade for a lefty or just live with what we have in-house. Mitch Boggs should be able to get some lefties out with his curveball.
Let’s go get Shouse. He’s a dynamite LOOGY!!!
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on
Oct 17, 2008 11:50 AM EDT
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Surely Kinney has a chance
to win the 7th inning or 8th inning spot.
by sdrone on
Oct 17, 2008 2:07 PM EDT
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if he isn't closing
i mean, the dude had an ERA+ of INFINITY in 2008. Imagine if we’d had him in the bullpen all year…
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 17, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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I dig Springer
but under the circumstances of this exercise I would just spend the money on LHPs.
Based on the stats below, I would shoot for a top tier Loogy such as Joe Beimel, Scott Eyre, Dennys Reyes or Arthur Rhodes and spend what’s left on a guy like Jeremy Affeldt, Will Ohman or Brian Shouse, budget permitting.
Player followed by ERA+ 2008/Career, OPS vs LHB 2008/Career
Jeremy Affeldt - 135/105, .745/.745
Joe Beimel - 219/103, .641/ .722
Alan Embree - 82/95, .719/.669
Scott Eyre - 237/103, .664/.723Casey Fossum - 78/83, .674/.722
Mark Hendrickson - 76/89, .718/.685
Damaso Marte - 106/137, .679/.583
Trever Miller - 105/101, .612/.709Will Ohman - 112/106, .571/.603
Darren Oliver - 152/98, .653/.804
Horacio Ramirez - 105/94, .836/.719
Dennys Reyes - 179/104, .537/.670Arthur Rhodes - 205/105, .453/.614
Glendon Rusch - 87/88, .637/.777
Brian Shouse - 155/128, .486/.589
Ron Villone - 91/96, .629/.701
by adiueordie on
Oct 17, 2008 12:10 PM EDT
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c mannings
quality of batters faced in 2008 leads our staff (all) in 2008, if mulders 1.7 IP are ignored.
c manning…………(.270 / .346 / .435 / .781)
villone………………(.260 / .336 / .414 / .750)
garcia………………(.254 / .333 / .415 / .748)
flores……………….(.250 / .326 / .399 / .725)
batters manning faced (189 PA) produced +.001 OPS point better vs manning than mlb.
by ball in play on
Oct 17, 2008 12:17 PM EDT
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so you're saying he got kinda unlucky?
as in, he happened to pitch against rather significantly tougher batters overall?
by mattybobo on
Oct 17, 2008 1:06 PM EDT
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or, he didn't get to face the nationals :)
but yes, the level of competition he faced in 08 was greater than anyone on our staff , except mulder.—BP
i try to keep it in perspective. his slash line is not so great until you consider those batters he faced did that same production vs mlb also.
vs, say flores, 08 slash line. flores gave up .158 OPS points more than what his opponents did vs mlb.
when a reliever is used, can determine the level of competition he faces right? in the 7th vs the bottom of the order, or 8th vs the top and middle order guys. as an example.
by ball in play on
Oct 17, 2008 1:38 PM EDT
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manning vs stl, 2008
2 games, 8 PA, 6 AB, 0 runs, 1 hit (dbl), 2 BB, 1 K, 1 GDP.
enetered in the 6th inning, nats down 6-1, and 7th inning nats ahead 8-6.
both times he entered he faced the top of the order—barton, mather, ankiel, ludwick and glaus.
and schumaker, miles, kennedy.
stl produced a slash line in these 8 PA of (.167 / .375 / .333 / .708), which is below league average.
he did avoid pujols and a catcher, (very small sample size).
by ball in play on
Oct 17, 2008 2:22 PM EDT
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Pretty impressive really...
when you consider that 4 of the 5 in his first appearance were RHB. Granted Ludwick and Mather have slight reverse platoons, but both hit lefties at over .800 OPS (I believe – also I’m talking about Joey-Bombs of minor league glory).
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 17, 2008 2:37 PM EDT
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his splits usage,
was identical to villone, vs rhb 53% and lhb 47, by their managers.
flores very close with vs rhb 51 and lhb 49%.
not implying manning is a world beater, but i do like his 08 much better than flores.
many similarities to villone and mannings 08, and that’s not necessarily a good thing.
villone allowing only .004 OPS points over what his opponents did vs mlb.
the one item that stands out for me is his BB/K splits. appears he nibbles and walks vs righties (22BB / 14K), but competes within the zone much better vs lefties (9 BB / 23K). just trying to get familiar with his debut numbers. boy could we use t. johnson healthy and productive in 09.
by ball in play on
Oct 17, 2008 3:04 PM EDT
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very insightful
This is a nice break down of the data,. I hope manning’s sigining means the front office did the same and found an undervalued LOOGY.
by ncgostl on
Oct 17, 2008 4:24 PM EDT
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I'd go after Beimel
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 17, 2008 12:35 PM EDT
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Let's just use all of our money on Mark Prior and Ben Sheets!
then we’d have the most injured pitching staff in history!
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 17, 2008 12:42 PM EDT
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Whoaaa!
You’re fitting a prime opportunity, especially from the left side.
Mark Mulder.
by Red in Chicago on
Oct 17, 2008 12:58 PM EDT
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I noticed on the page
Danup posted, we have an 11 milliion dollar option on Mulder next year, should we choose to exercise it. Let’s go all in fo r the injury trifecta?
by ncgostl on
Oct 17, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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"all-in" would imply
trading for MIke Hampton (rasmus + anderson would probably get it done) and signing carl pavano.
Git’r’dun, mo!
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 17, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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Don't joke around
I could see the Cardinals sign Pavano off the scrap heap
by FlimtotheFlam on
Oct 17, 2008 4:46 PM EDT
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Does anyone still have strings on Denny Nagle? Kevin Brown?
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
by akaitori on
Oct 17, 2008 9:25 PM EDT
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He also managed to give up eight home runs in his forty big league innings, one of which did not endear him to a Washington Post headline writer.
note to Washington Post guy: Yeah, Manning, thats whats wrong with that team :-P
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com
www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on
Oct 17, 2008 12:56 PM EDT
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Right
If only that 29 year old minor league free agent loogy could have held some leads…
by adiueordie on
Oct 17, 2008 12:58 PM EDT
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Hard assignment.....
Cause I still feel like we’re going to move one of Perez/Motte this offseason, or start one of them in AAA.
But let us assume that is not the case. I think you also have to count either Thompson or JP as the long man, so we have that covered. That really only leaves us with 2 spots, both which need to be lefties.
What I’d do is go after Beimel or Ohman with most of that money, then try to nab a guy like Rhodes or Shouse on a 1 year deal. If we end up moving a right-hander, I’d like to resign either Izzy or Springer.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on
Oct 17, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
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I don't want to spoil the thread
I think this is a fun and interesting discussion on the bullpen. If you feel this detracts from the discussion, DanUp, feel free to delete it. I cross-posted it on the Hot Stove Catch-All.
ESPN is reporting that the Pads are lining up suitors (nothing new there), with the Braves as “hot” after Peavy and the Dodgers as another likely suitor. They also mention the Cards, but in a speculative catch-all “other clubs likely interested” paragraph. The juicy morsel, to me, was this:
The Padres are seeking at least two young pitchers in return, along with someone who can become the team’s everyday center fielder sometime in the immediate to near future.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on
Oct 17, 2008 1:22 PM EDT
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let's see...
Rasmus, Todd, and Mortensen (or Boggs) for Peavy. No thanks.
by chuckb on
Oct 17, 2008 1:24 PM EDT
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A difficult decision
Peavy is under control through 2013 at what seems reasonable (especially with CC likely to sign a market skewing deal).
Also, does Ankiel fit their needs?
I’m torn.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on
Oct 17, 2008 1:26 PM EDT
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Ankiel's a year away from free agency
I doubt that he meets their criteria for “young”
by chuckb on
Oct 17, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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Didn't say a young CF.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on
Oct 17, 2008 1:32 PM EDT
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And they would probably have to agree to an extension with Ankiel before making the deal.
by adiueordie on
Oct 17, 2008 1:36 PM EDT
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How 'bout Jay...
or Jones instead of Colby…is this a non-starter?
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 17, 2008 2:19 PM EDT
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I'd send Jones
keep Todd, send Mortensen and Ottavino or maybe Boggs. we’d need to lighten the load.
by chuckb on
Oct 17, 2008 2:21 PM EDT
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Exactly
He isn’t exactly signed to a Club Friendly contract. $8 million, $15 million, $16 million and $17 million the next four years, plus a $4 million buyout or a $22 million option in 2013. We would probably have to agree to that $22 which is a deal breaker imo.
It is giving up a cost controlled asset for barely under market value starter. Even if you agreed that Peavy is really worth $20 million a year for the next 4 years and we didn’t have to pick up his option. It comes down to you think getting Peavy is worth $24 million under market for 3 good to great prospects.
by FlimtotheFlam on
Oct 17, 2008 3:28 PM EDT
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I disagree
Respectfully, of course. This is the 2007 NL Cy Young winner with a career FIP of about 3.50. Santana is an interesting comparison, with a career FIP of 3.34. Here is his contract (all years in the 20—‘s): 08:$19M, 09:$20M, 10:$21M, 11:$22.5M, 12:$24M, 13:$25.5M, 14:$25M club option ($5.5M buyout). He is 2 years older than Peavy. Here is Peavy’s contract: 10:$15M, 11:$16M, 12:$17M, 13: $22M club option ($4M buyout). I’d say that is a very friendly deal that sunsets and a nice time (after his age 31 season with a club option for his age 32 season). What’s more, after CC’s contract, I suspect Peavy’s will seem even more reasonable.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on
Oct 17, 2008 5:40 PM EDT
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Can we really take on another pitching contract like that
My god between Carp, Wainwright and Lohse I might be sick already. If the Cardinals are willing to get Peavy they should have shown better restraint on Lohse.
by azruavatar on
Oct 17, 2008 9:11 PM EDT
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ankiel goes
before rasmus, even if colby never hits hr’s with rick, he’s more valuable becuase he allows for us to subsequently pick up guys like peavey. hard to do if we re-up rick at anything close to his predicted market price.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on
Oct 17, 2008 3:35 PM EDT
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ankiel goes ...
over TLR’s dead body. Literally, he’d stand in the door with a crowbar if the Cards to ship out Ankiel. But if the team is going to ad substantial payroll, exchanging Rasmus for Ankiel in center is one way to help offset the acquisition. I’d offer this for Peavy—
Ankiel
Boggs
Perez
B. Barton or Freese (their choice)
They’d have to consider it. LaDuncan are not Perez fans. I love the upside of the kid but I worry he is going to get ARey’ed. Any time D. Duncan says a young pitcher like Perez “needs to change some things” it spells trouble.
by jjray on
Oct 17, 2008 3:55 PM EDT
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Is Ankiel worth 4 years/$40 to $50 mil
Because that is what he could get on the Free Market after a good year in 09
by FlimtotheFlam on
Oct 17, 2008 3:58 PM EDT
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To a team that doesn't have...
3 to 5 other guys that could play center…yes. To the Cards (Rasmus, Skip, Jay, Ludwick, Barton, Jones…heck even Mather is supposed to be capable) not so much. Of course Ankiel is likely to shift to RF when Colby comes up…still any of the guys listed (save maybe Barton) could hack it in Right.
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 17, 2008 4:55 PM EDT
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I expect the Braves to get Peavy
They need a ace pretty bad now with the question marks on Hudson’s health. I see them as the favorite. When it comes down to it I really doubt Mo is going to trade 3-4 of our prospects for a pitcher.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on
Oct 17, 2008 1:36 PM EDT
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Jake Peavy isn't worth that much
Sure, you would control him for a long time, but you also have to pay for that. Those number of prospects you’d have to give is way too much. May as well pay a little extra and go for a big name FA. Also, his career home vs road ERA :
2.77 Home (Petco)
3.80 Away
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on
Oct 17, 2008 2:25 PM EDT
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That's a nice point
He’s a little riskier than people may think because of that. Kinda like the splits everyone points out when discussion starts on Matt Holliday, only in reverse.
by Merry CRasmus on
Oct 17, 2008 2:50 PM EDT
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Isn't the new Busch a pitchers park also?
"Why does he keep saying that?"
by Red Blazer on
Oct 17, 2008 3:35 PM EDT
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Yes, but not to the extent that Petco is.
by cardsgirl95 on
Oct 17, 2008 3:37 PM EDT
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So we'd be looking at...
a 2.88 at home and 3.80 on the road? bummer…
by stlfan on
Oct 17, 2008 5:04 PM EDT
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Not exactly
Peavy would still be a stud, but not $10-15M a year and 3 prospects worth.
2008 STL Home ERA: 4.06 Away: 4.35
2008 SD Home ERA: 3.65 Away: 5.32
As you can see, the Petco effect is HUGE. I’d give Peavy a 3.80 ERA on the road and a something like a 3.50 (Peavy away – (STL away – home)) at home if he came and pitched for St. Louis next year.
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on
Oct 17, 2008 5:54 PM EDT
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Duncan Effect?
If he stays, would he improve Peavy as a pitcher?
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on
Oct 17, 2008 5:56 PM EDT
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I would bet so
But that would be hard to count on or measure. I would also expect the St Louis defense to help.
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on
Oct 17, 2008 6:38 PM EDT
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Something else to consider
when talking about park effects is that Petco dramatically surpresses HRs (just ask Adrian Gonzales). The last season Peavy pitched in Jack Murphy, or whatever corporate name they gave it, he gave up 33 bombs and posted a 4.11 ERA. In 2008 he gave up 13 HRs away, but only 4 at Petco even though he threw over 30% more innings at Petco.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on
Oct 17, 2008 7:36 PM EDT
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Which Duncan effect?
The one where he turns ineffective pitchers into league average to slightly above average
Or
The one where he takes power pitchers and turns them into league average or worse
?
by DriverZn on
Oct 17, 2008 7:29 PM EDT
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So you're saying...
that the average in San Diego is 41 points lower than St. Louis, but one of the best pitchers in baseball will get 73 points worse? BS!
I’d give him 3.75 on the road (since he’ll probably pitch one game in SD instead of STL on the road) and 3.18 at Busch. That’s 41 points higher at home.
by stlfan on
Oct 17, 2008 10:53 PM EDT
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Thanks
I appreciate having my hypothetical ideas called BS. Really, I do.
His away ERA is 3.80. So, logically, in parks other than Petco his ERA would be around there. I dropped it to 3.50 because home stadiums give an advantage to most players in general (Busch was .29 different between home and away). If you disagree with my method, fine, it’s not scientific at all. Nobody knows how he would do in a new park. Same issue for Matt Holliday. Just, in the future, don’t call my ideas BS when I have reasoning for them, especially when you don’t even use logic to make a claim against them. Thanks
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on
Oct 17, 2008 11:36 PM EDT
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Did I not use logic to come up with that?
You’re expecting him to get nearly twice as bad as the numbers would suggest….73 worse instead of .41 worse…I believe.
By the way, here is another hypothetical. Peavy has a career 2.77 ERA at Busch, and a career 2.37 ERA in St. Louis for his career. We’ll probably put a better defense behind him than SD did. We’ll probably give him more run support than SD did. His 2.77 ERA against the Cardinals in St. Louis is going against a hell of an offense (usually), whereas, he probably would not face as good an offense against him in St. Louis than he usually did. Going by those numbers, I could say that his ERA at Busch over the 5 years he’d hypothetically be here would be just as good or better than his 2.77 ERA in Petco and in Busch for his career.
But yes, this is all hypothetical.
by stlfan on
Oct 18, 2008 3:21 PM EDT
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Yeah really...
Who wouldn’t take that? Adam Wainwright (the current ace of our staff) home/away splits from 2008 compare to Jakey’s like this:
Home: AW 2.63/ JP 1.74
Away: AW 4.05/ JP 4.28
I know Peavy pitches half of his season at PetCO, but I seriously doubt his numbers would spike that much if he pitched in STL, and the two were fairly comparable on the road. JP also made 27 starts compared to AW making 20. I’d try to do a Jones, Mort, and Todd deal because I wouldn’t see it getting done involving Ank (too old to build for the future, too expensive after ‘09, TLR loves him) But if we had the chance to pick up a Cy Young caliber pitcher with little history of injury and just below markey value I’d say give it a shot.
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on
Oct 17, 2008 6:18 PM EDT
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Waino career
3.16 home to 3.87 away
That’s quite a bit less pronounced. Plus, looking at one player with a similar split doesn’t prove anything other that Adam Wainwright also pitches better at home (which happens to be a pitchers park).
In addition, the Pads want someone who can man CF in the near-immediate future and I don’t think Jones is that close.
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on
Oct 17, 2008 6:37 PM EDT
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I wasn't comparing the two because they had similar splits
I was simply comparing them because they are the respective aces of their staffs and they just happened to have similar numbers.
As for Jones, I’d say the Pads would rather have him than Ank. I don’t think getting Peavy is a realistic option and I really wouldn’t want him because our other pitching contracts (cough, Lohse) are weighing us down now. I just think if we wanted to offer the Pads something for him I’d start with that, and if they wanted more we could simply say “No thank you.”
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on
Oct 17, 2008 11:49 PM EDT
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Yeah but signing a FA pitcher
Costs you the 25 mil/yr contract plus the draft pick compensation so you are looking at 15mil more than Peavy but you get to keep basically 2 prospects net.
Motorized coolers are sound investments.
by bearcatcardfan on
Oct 18, 2008 3:12 AM EDT
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Didn't we already
send them a center fielder, name of Edwards or something like that?
by cardsgirl95 on
Oct 17, 2008 3:47 PM EDT
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i'm glad the edwards kid got to play in october this year
even if it was for like, five minutes.
by mattybobo on
Oct 17, 2008 3:58 PM EDT
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Five minutes is better than nothing.
It’s always good to see kids get a shot at Oct. baseball.
by cardsgirl95 on
Oct 17, 2008 4:03 PM EDT
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Five minutes more
than any of the Cards did this year…
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on
Oct 17, 2008 6:19 PM EDT
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shih
we ain’t gettin peavy
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 17, 2008 4:30 PM EDT
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Ohman's my favorite
I believe that both Affeldt and Cruz are type-A and there’s no way I’m giving up the number 18-20 pick in the draft for a middle reliever. They’re far too fungible.
by chuckb on
Oct 17, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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type A
I didn’t even consider that, good call.
According to MLBTR, Marte, Oliver, and Fuentes are Type A’s amongst the LH relievers. They have Affeldt listed as a Type B.
by adiueordie on
Oct 17, 2008 1:35 PM EDT
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ok, then I was wrong
it had been a couple of days since I looked at the list. I’d consider Affeldt, then.
by chuckb on
Oct 17, 2008 2:22 PM EDT
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Doesn't necessarily mean their teams will offer them arbitration though
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on
Oct 17, 2008 4:01 PM EDT
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wouldn't you?
it would only mean a 1 year commitment if they accept. They’d be stupid not to offer arbitration.
by chuckb on
Oct 17, 2008 6:22 PM EDT
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this is probably a non-issue
but didn’t Ohman have something against st. louis?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 17, 2008 3:01 PM EDT
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I don't think he has any problems with Saint Louis
I remembered reading a quote by him near the deadline that he likes Saint Louis. I will try to dig it up
by FlimtotheFlam on
Oct 17, 2008 3:32 PM EDT
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I thought he said something during one of the games against us
but I can’t remember what it was, and it was probably a heat of the moment thing, just talking stuff up.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 17, 2008 4:31 PM EDT
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oof, you're right
I like Juan Cruz, but I don’t like-him like-him.
by DanUpBaby on
Oct 17, 2008 3:12 PM EDT
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I like Cruz a lot too
and think he might be able to close games. If he could be a successful closer, he’s probably worth that pick. If not, he’s not.
by chuckb on
Oct 17, 2008 6:23 PM EDT
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Plus he does a great
Southern Fried Harry Caray impression.
by Red in Chicago on
Oct 17, 2008 4:04 PM EDT
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bargain shopping
grab shouse and rhodes. it’s two old lefties for the pen, which would probably give TJ an opportunity as well. if you can’t grab both of the old geezers, see if villone will stick around another year.
not on the list, but maybe kevin correia can be had on a minor league deal, kinda always thought he had some upside.
juan cruz does have the stuff to be at the back of a bull pen, can we add him within budget? if not, springer seems to be the next best rhp option. in my mind most of these guys are fungible to some extent.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
by Dave Barry on
Oct 17, 2008 2:54 PM EDT
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yes, had been high on correia also, until his 08.
his days of competing with sanchez for a rotation spot are becoming a memory.
by ball in play on
Oct 17, 2008 3:09 PM EDT
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Just a heads up
MiLB.com is still billing my monthly $6.95 for the multimedia section, although it is now availible for free. So, any of you out there that paid for this with a credit card, etc. Please check you statements to make sure this isn’t happening to you.
by Hardcore Legend on
Oct 17, 2008 3:12 PM EDT
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Five mil?
You’re giving me five million dollars to fix this bullpen? Man, talk about a sweet assignment.
This is what you do:
1.Sign Jeremy Affeldt.
2.Let Tyler Johnson battle it out with Charlie Manning and some transients for the other lefty relief spot.
3.Pay some mafia guys to ‘convince’ Tony that he needs to just use the young guys we’ve already got in the bullpen.
4.Spend the rest on a couple of those big fans and a truckload of good Scotch.
5.Use the Scotch for both drinking and performance incentives for the relievers.
Victory is sweet, even deep in the cheap seats.
by the red baron on
Oct 17, 2008 3:24 PM EDT
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My connections tell me
that item 3 will cost $50,000 and item 4 will cost $20,000. Chicken feed.
by ncgostl on
Oct 17, 2008 4:33 PM EDT
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Great post. I suggest just using the entire amount of the Scotch, however. The rest of the issues will then fall in place naturally
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
by akaitori on
Oct 17, 2008 9:30 PM EDT
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OT: The Other man on the podium
I thought you guys would enjoy this article. It is about the other man on the podium Peter Norman

by FlimtotheFlam on
Oct 17, 2008 4:50 PM EDT
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I take
1$ million of that money and find more NRIs like Charlie Manning and return the remaining chunk to Mo.
by JMedwick on
Oct 17, 2008 4:54 PM EDT
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He's not on the list, but I like him a lot.
A right hander named Mike Adams with San Diego.
Brian Barton for Mike Adams, straight up. Works for both teams, IMO.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Oct 17, 2008 9:28 PM EDT
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Intresting comments, all. What is the latest on the Pads insisting or at least wishing to include Greene along with Peavy.
I think forcing Greene into the mix diminishes Peavy’s value. Does anyone out there think Greene would be much of an improvement? We already have a goodly number of 100K batters on the roster.
An optimist is a man who upon discovering that a rose smells better than a cabbage concludes it will make better soup.
HL Mencken
by akaitori on
Oct 17, 2008 9:33 PM EDT
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among Iz2, Lopez, and greene, I will take Iz2 or Lopez everytime over Greene.
greene barely batted over .200 this year and has no basestealing ability.
"All baseball fans can be divided into two groups: those who come to batting practice and the others. Only those in the first category have much chance of amounting to anything."--Thomas Boswell
by albrtfn on
Oct 17, 2008 9:38 PM EDT
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well the number suggest he would be a big
offensive upgrade over Izturis and even over Lopez
Career OPS+
Izturis: 67
Lopez: 89
Greene: 95 (all full season in Petco)
they all will be 29 next season and Greene is no slouch with the glove but is probably not as good as Izz2 but a hell of a lot better than Floppy…so he would be, most likely, a substantial upgrade at the SS position 100 K’s or not
all that being said i dont really want Greene. i would rather have someone younger cheaper and for more years that Khalil’s 1yr $6.5mil.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on
Oct 17, 2008 11:19 PM EDT
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I also wanted to say something about the Sox/Rays game last night.
I wasn’t around for the game thread, but I would like to give a hat tip to J.D. Drew. He once again got a big hit for his team, actually, he got two big hits for his team last night, and he carried himself with grace and dignity. No showing off, no punk gestures, no screaming or jumping around. Just expressed what my daughter called a “quiet joy.” He was also classy in his comments after the game.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Oct 17, 2008 9:38 PM EDT
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dennys reyes
the loogey cupboard is sooooo empty, i need an absolute shutdown lefty vs lefties.
shouse as option #2.
by ball in play on
Oct 17, 2008 9:40 PM EDT
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Grab Affeldt, and then
just start picking guys at random under age 35 not named Farnsworth, starting with the cheapest lefty, then cheapest righty, etc. Right-handed relievers are, as they say, “fungible.” There is no reason whatever to pay for someone good out of this list, particularly since there ain’t none. Substitute relatively young quantity for quality and hope that someone overperforms.
To find a frog prince, you’ve gotta kiss a lot of frogs.
by StanTheManFan on
Oct 17, 2008 11:16 PM EDT
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