Running down a dream
by chuckb on Oct 16, 2008 7:00 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintWe know that a success rate above 70 or 75% can add offensive value. In fact, the stolen base success rate is more important to offensive success than the raw number of bases stolen. If you have both – Jimmy Rollins was successful an absurd 47 out of 50 times this season – you’re adding quite a bit of value. So it occurred to me that we ought to see how well the Cards ran the bases last season, not only as an exercise to see how it affected our offense, but also to be fair to Cesar.
12 teams in the National League stole more bases than the Cards’ 73. The Cards were only slightly better, at 11th, with our 69.5% success rate. However, there’s a lot more to base running than stealing bases. There’s advancing on outs, going from 1st to 3rd on a single, scoring from 2nd on a single or from 1st on a double. Fortunately, both baseball prospectus and billjamesonline now have statistics that help us evaluate each base runner and each team’s base running.
It’s important also that we make clear that it’s poor analysis to divide these players into "good base runners" and "bad base runners", necessarily. These are base runners who add runs, compared to the average base runner, or subtract runs, compared to the average base runner. These "base running runs" don’t measure, exclusively, how well players run the bases b/c speed is a huge factor in determining to what degree players help their teams while running the bases. I draw that distinction b/c, as you’ll see, Albert Pujols is, basically, characterized as "an average base runner" though we all know that he is much better than average. However, his speed limits him so, though he runs the bases quite well (usually – though Jose Oquendo knows not to get between Albert and home plate when he throws up a stop sign, lest he become foul-line roadkill), he doesn’t add many runs to the team when he runs the bases, simply b/c he’s not very fast. He does the best he can w/ what he’s got. These "base running runs" are more often a function of team speed more than base running skill. Molina, too, isn’t so much a "bad base runner" as he is slow – and thus costs the team runs w/ his speed.
Compared with other teams, both systems show the Cards to be a below-average base running team in ’08. According to bill james, the Cards -17 (on a +/- scale, similar to their fielding scale) was better than only 5 teams in the big leagues. Using BP’s metric, the Cards’ base running was only slightly better, finishing 22nd in the majors. According to BP, the Cards’ base running was 10 runs worse than the average MLB team. Now, in fairness, 10 runs below average is not a tremendous gap between the Cards and the average team. It’s about 1 win. So, using BP’s metric, their base running was hardly the reason the Cards didn’t make the playoffs. On the other hand, the best base running teams were 22 runs above average – a 32 run difference between them and the Cards. That’s a 3 win difference between the top base running teams and the Cards. The Cards finished just 4 games behind the Brewers in the Wild Card hunt. So, it’s clear that improved base running, though not a panacea, could help the Cards make up the ground between where they are now and where they want to be.
It is apparent, in looking at these numbers, that they are far from conclusive, however. The Cubs, for example, are given a +66 – one of the best in the majors – on billjames’ system but are listed as one of baseball’s worst base running teams by BP. Even so, it’s no secret that the Cards lack speed and shouldn’t be that surprising that both indicators rank the Cards as being close to the bottom in terms of their base running.
Despite the inconsistency w/ which these two systems evaluate the Cubs, their evaluations of the Cards’ players are remarkably consistent. Our "worst" base runners – those who’ve cost the team the most bases and, in turn, the most runs – are Molina, Duncan, Glaus and surprisingly, Izturis. In fairness, billjames ranks Izturis at exactly 0 – league average – the same as Pujols but BP has Izturis ranked second to last on the team! He adds quite a bit when he steals bases but appears to cost the team when trying to advance on outs or on hits. It’s not surprising that Molina has these problems. It is surprising that a guy w/ Izturis’ speed appears to have these problems. He made 8 outs on the bases, aside from the 6 times he was caught stealing. Now, it’s possible, and it’s not broken down by either site, that a few of those 8 (b/c 8’s a lot for a guy w/ his speed!) were on blown squeeze plays. If so, and I’ll admit I’m just speculating here, but in most cases being out on a squeeze play is not the fault of the base runner. Izturis’ numbers may be artificially deflated here b/c of missed signs, bad bunt attempts, or well-defensed squeeze plays.
Our "best" base runners – those who add the most to our offense by running the bases – included Ludwick, Skip, Kennedy and Miles. Both metrics agree on that. Some of our "worst" base runners (I really hate calling them that) – some of the players who cost us more bases than they add to our offense are here to stay, at least for next year, and should be b/c they add much more to our team through their offense and defense than they cost us on the bases. Can you imagine getting rid of Pujols, Glaus, or Molina b/c they’re not fast enough?
On the other hand, while base running probably isn’t our biggest problem going in to the offseason, there are ways to improve it. And if we improve it, we’ll add a win or 3 to our total. Ultimately that might be the difference between making the playoffs and not.
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Just curious
What are the ranks of our potential MI targets. Would that improve things or would it make things worse?
Motorized coolers are sound investments.
by bearcatcardfan on Oct 16, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply actions
Izturis..
I remember during the Cubs series in Chicago Izturis was thrown out at the plate (he did not slide) but replay clearly showed he stepped on the plate and then was taged on the hip and called out…..
Also I remember a few times this year Oquendo tried to steal a run with two outs and Izturis running which resulted in Cesar being thrown out at the plate. You have to do that with Izturis and Ryan though. They run well so you have to take chances at times, and these are major league players so they often pick the ball cleanly, and make a strong throw to nail a guy at the plate.
I would guess Izturis makes more outs simply because he has more speed than others. So he takes chances and Oquendo takes chances with him.
+1
seems logical
"There are 108 beads in a Catholic rosary. And there are 108 stitches in a baseball. When I learned that, I gave Jesus a chance."
by Bahamaredbird on Oct 16, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice observation
Thinking like that reminds me of the more common notion that you can’t “rate” outfield arms by assist totals. Many guys with cannons have very low assist totals simly because nobody runs on them and give them a chance to even get an assist.
I would imagine somebody somewhere has tried to track this, though. Something like "base advancement prevented "or the like. So many variables, though – type of ball that is fielded, game situation, weather, score, etc.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Oct 16, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Can't remember...
a time when Izturis’s speed really was the reason we won a game. I think this is partly the fault of management not capitalizing on his speed this year. The Cards just weren’t the running team this year. I can however remember instances when Albert took 2nd when a pitcher payed no attention to him or when he scored from 2nd on a ground out to the second baseman. The latter was the reason that we won that game I believe. To me a “good base runner” is more valuable than a guy that is fast.
double steal
wasn’t there a double steal where he was one of the two? Don’t know if I would say his “speed” won but I doubt Molina would have been used the same way.
I really like what Izturis did this year.
The defense was great.
The speed was great.
The base stealing was great.
The hiting was meh.
I think he started coming around at the plate near the end of the year.
I could see him batting leadoff if he got on base more regularly.
With him and Lopez at the top both having the ability to switch hit and steal bases Pujols would have a nice couple of table setters.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
So
I could see him batting leadoff if he got on base more regularly.
That’s like saying I could see myself speaking fluent Spanish if I was a native of Spain.
Which I’m not….
Either or both of Izturis and Lopez must go! If Tony insists on batting the pitcher 8th, he cannot put a craptastic middle-infielder in the 9-hole. Mo needs to relieve Tony of this option.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 16, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Ola, coma esta?
I think that was jibberish you see because I don’t speak fluent spanish either.
But I do know baseball and Izturis has the skills to be a lead off hitter. It’s not like I said if he could hit 40 homeruns then he could bat 4th. It is within his skill set possible for Izturis to become a better disciplined hitter who get on base more frequently. I think he displayed that near the end of the year.
As to Lopez he rocked the birds on the bat since he arrived. His miscues at defense were mainly when he played out of position. He has starter level talent.
If Lopez & Izturis cannot be anything more than they were when at there worst last year then I would agree they have to go.
But Ozzie Smith proved an old dog cwhean learn to hit and damn if that Glaus didn’t up and pull out the gold glove right here in St. Louis when everyone said his biggest flaw was to be his defense.
Go mock someone else you mono-lingual basher.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
And I can't spell real well either but if I could maybe I could write for the post....
"Why does he keep saying that?"
it could mean that too
comer is a funny verb. “como como? como como como.” = how do i eat? i eat how i eat.
The only skill set a leadoff hitter needs is getting on-base
and Izturis is really bad at that, so how would he make a good leadoff hitter? just because he is fast? That is the worst reason put someone at leadoff as I point you to Patterson, Corey.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
Pierre can hit, though.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
I did say he would have to shape up in that area and take more walks and hit for average.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
if we keep izturis
I never want to see him bat anywhere but in the 9 spot
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 16, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
ok
after reading the last post, I change my mind. he’s an ok leadoff guy against lefties. but I’d rather just get a new shortstop, hopefully one that has some speed and can lead off well (assuming we trade skip the trade chip)
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 16, 2008 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be pointless
to put a base stealer immediately in front of Pujols as he would never be given the opportunity to steal 2nd for fear of Albert being passed.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Technically depending on your saber bent
That’d largely be a good thing…
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
what would be a good thing?
Running in front of Albert or walking Albert a lot with a man on second?
While I would agree that Albert getting walked more is good for the offense, I’d rather have a doubles hitter in front of him than a slappy base stealer, since running is such a risky proposition as it is.
That being said, TLR doesn’t have a penchant for running much at all lately, much less in front of the best hitter in baseball.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Walking Albert a lot
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Only if we have talent behind him.....
Talent that can consistently bring him home.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
Like Ludwick Glaus Ankiel?
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
The point was
that TLR wouldn’t let anybody steal a base in front of Albert, not whether it was desirable or not.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
It would give Pujols a better chance of driving in a run with a single.
Hit & run plays.
Also if the pitcher has to pay attention to the guy on first he is more likely to serve up a fat pitch to Pujols due to lack of concentration.
Also the speed of the runner on will cut down on double plays for both Lopez and Pujols.
Try turning two with Ceasar in motion and Lopez flying down the line towards first.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
If the first two batters in our order are
Izturis and Lopez, someone should be shot.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
his hitting was terrible so let's give him the most at bats next year?
I must admit this logic escapes me but I can’t say I am upset it does.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
does Izturis have anything going for him offensively
besides the decent avg against LHP and the speed?
Not trying to be sarcastic, I am just wondering if I have missed something.
He has terrible on base skills, he has almost no extra base hit power, if he ever could bunt that skill has abandoned him (that is what really ticks me off most about Izturis. If you have no power, and can fly, you really should be able to bunt yourself on base occasionally), he has rarely shown the ability to even get a sacrifice fly.
Unless Izturis finds a way in his late 20’s to change his entire offensive skill set, then he has no business at all being a leadoff hitter. I know some people will say that he could handle it in a platoon, but when was the last time a really great team used a platoon in the lead off spot? If this team does not do better than Skip/Izturis in the leadoff spot I just won’t have high hopes for the 2009 team either.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
Whats everyone think of the Manning signing?
Looks like we went bargain shopping again. But maybe he will turn out to be the Ludwick of pitchers.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
Doubt it
He seems like a good loogy and it won’t hurt us in anyway except taking up another 40 man spot prior to the Rule V draft. But really I don’t expect much and I will be very excited to be proven wrong. We will see what we got later, but this is to me registers about the same as the Cliff Pollite and Ron Villone signings did a year ago.
It's just a signing.....
I doubt he is on the opening day roster, but we don’t have much in the way of lefty relievers in AAA, so he could fill that role.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 16, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
He's had useable minor league numbers since 2006
Can’t hurt.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
In effect, this was a trade
Manning for Phelps (of course, with the difference that we COULD pick Phelps back up if nobody else does). It seemed, at first, to me that we “gave up” too much. However, with Freese, Craig, and Wallace all coming up, Phelps probably didn’t have much of a place in the org going forward anyway.
by ArkansasTravs on Oct 16, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
The loss of Phelps opens up an interesting avenue in the minors though
Barring any deals involving Freese and Craig, does Wallace start the season playing first base at AAA to get him AB’s at that level? I’m assuming that Freese doesn’t start with the club out of the spring and that Craig is still going to be getting AB’s at 3B in Springfield or moving up to AAA and getting time at 3B and LF.
If the org wants Wallace to stick at third then they need to be looking at moving some of these other guys for other organizational needs.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I would anticipate
that Wallace sticks at 3rd and they move either Craig or Freese. If not, maybe Wallace will share time at 3rd with either Craig or Freese depending on where they want to start him (AA/AAA).
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on Oct 16, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
How many of the team's CS this year were botched Hit and Runs?
Because from watching the games, I’d say it was something like half of them. This is a lot of what makes judging baserunning so hard. How much of it is your manager, the guy hitting behind you, and the defense you’re running on, and how much of it is you?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
CS Leaders
The only players with more CS then SB were Yadi (2), Lohse(1), Wainwright(1).
The leaders in CS were Izturis (6), Ludwick (4), Pujols(3), Miles(3), Lopez(3).
I seem to remember Ludwick and Pujols being hung out to dry on a few plays, not sure if they were Hit and Run plays though. But as a team we didn’t do too bad in the CS department but our SB% is one of the worst.
8 outs on the bases.
Does this include the number of times he’s the first out in a double play?
Often, Izturis hit in the 9 hole which, as we all know, is one spot in front of Skip Schumaker who hit into his fair share of double plays. If this is included in the “8”, then once again I’d say it’s inflated because it’s not his fault Skip hit a grounder to the SS.
Or maybe I don’t fully understand what “outs on the bases” actually means…..which is entirely possible.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
no, force outs aren't included.
“out on the basepaths” means caught stealing, caught going first to third, etc.
the enemy's gate is down.
gotcha
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
Offense
His offense is more than adequate from the RS of the plate. .356 OBP!
I would lead him off against LH pitching
I don't know how significant this might be
but Iz2 had an OBP of .302 batting leadoff and .176 leading off the game. I don’t know how much of his career leadoff numbers are RH v. LH, but they are not very good either. He should bat in front of the pitcher as that should help him draw some additional walks and his speed makes him easy to bunt over or hit and run with.
Of course, my sincere hope is that he is playing for another team next year.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Nice post
I must stay: Even though i’m not a huge Iz2 fan, I picked him up in my roto league because he was stealing bases. He seemed to be given the green light more as the year went on, too.
While I don’t think base-stealing should be a cornerstone of this team, I would love to see it a bit more than we currently do. Although that’s not likely to happen under the La Russa regime.
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
Running game
I thought Larussa pretty much gave everyone the green light once he figured the guy would not abuse the situation and run into outs all the time… ie (don’t steal if you are on base in front of albert)
I seem to remember announces talking about how many Cardinal players have the green light which is rare compared to some teams.
Yeah, that seems like a fair assesment
That’s the thing about La Russa. There are rules that he sets for himself and his team. 95% of the time, he adheres to these rules closely. But once and a while he shakes things up, and suddenly the rule changes. i.e. his distrust of young players disappearing in the 2006 postseason.
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
agree
and most the time breaking the baseball rules are probably an attempt to throw off the other managers so they can’t predict every move he’s going to make.
agree....
I would like at least one guy who puts fear into a pitcher about the possibility of running. It seems like Izturis got more aggressive as the year went on, but I don’t think of him as being a guy who is going to go steal a bag when you absolutely need it, ala… jose reyes
I think it does distract some pitchers and anything can help.
SB SS rank
Izturis did rank 4th in the national league in 2008 in SB but he had the lowest OBP of the top 8 SS in SB. In the base burglary dept he is among the leaders, yet he doesn’t really fit the bill of leadoff or two-hole hitter with a 319 OBP.
OT - Anyone see a recent picture
of Matsuzaka? The guy must have given up sushi for hamburgers. And he’s sporting a playoff mohawk.
I guess $100 million or whatever he signed for will do funny things to a person.
I hear the chowdah is really good up there in Bawstawn as well....
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think more people...
should sport the playoff mohawk. pretty freakin’ sweeeet if you ask me.
by launchshuttle on Oct 16, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
it's worse. or more hilarious.
Some Sauks are apparently sporting the reverse-mohawk. Here’s Eck modeling it.
Also that’s probably tame for a Japanese guy.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i don't suppose there's any way to try to calculate how izturis might improve if he stopped switch hitting?
as a llabyellov pointed out, he has a decent OBP against lefties… might he improve overall if just bats righty all the time? i thought i remembered him experimenting with this at some point during 08 but i don’t think it lasted long.
You are correct.....
Sometime during the middle of the season Al even pointed out how the Cards spoke to Izturis about not switch hitting anymore. I remember he hit only RH for a few games and then switched back to the switch hitting.
I don’t remember anyone really addressing why he made the change?
i guess he was just hitting so bady left-handed that they thought maybe he should abandon switch-hitting
maybe he just sucks as a hitter? i dunno. it would be interesting if we could determine he’s actually better righty-against-righty.
which begs the question
why did he go back to switch hitting?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 16, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I would imagine
the reason he started switch hitting in the first place is because he couldn’t hit righties batting right handed. I don’t know if he was originally a RH batter, but most switch-hitters start out that way. For his career he is actually a better hitter against LHPs, but only slightly.
I cannot imagine trying to relearn hitting RHPs at the major league level.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
yeah, that's the logical answer...
but i can dream, right? basically i’m afraid he’ll be our starting shortstop again, and hopeful that he would be able to improve his hitting somehow.
yeah
I really hope they don’t go with him again… unless he’s a backup
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 16, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
If he is our starting shortstop
it better be because the rest of the team got a lot better.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
that would be the only excuse, if we sign an awesome 2B
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 17, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
so using the baseballmusings lineup generator
and plugging in the actual 2008 OBP and SLG at each lineup position (IE 1,2,3,4,5) for the cardinals, we should have scored 852 runs this year. We actually scored 779.
I haven’t checked any other 2008 teams, but that seems like a remarkably large difference.
the enemy's gate is down.
Chalk that differential up to epic suck
from our middle infield, Troy Glaus’s allergies, a month of Chris Duncan playing when he should have been in a body cast and Albert Pujols missing three weeks. (By the way, can we take up a collection to get Troy some goggles like Kelvim Escobar? Or at least a good decongestant…)
by Red in Chicago on Oct 16, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
upper respiratory
It’s bad enough I don’t trust how the Cardinals deal with injuries, now I don’t trust how they deal with respiratory issues. They’ve got to figure out Troy’s issues, and I’m hoping they figure out what happened to Adam in PNC. I mean c’mon, it’s just oxygen. It’s not like pro athletes need that.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
well, all of that
is included in the numbers. IE, Iz2, Miles, Ryan, etc all combined to hit .267/.322/.325 in the 9 hole, so I used .322/.325 for OBP/SLG for the 9 position in the lineup generator.
We scored 66 runs less than the lineup generator predicted. Some of that was probably bad luck, some of it was baserunning, some of it was GIDPs, etc.
the enemy's gate is down.
looking at the situational hitting
it all looks pretty good except for hitting with the bases loaded. Team OPS with the bases loaded was .675 while the overall OPS was .783. What would an additional .108 of OPS do in 167 PAs with the bases loaded?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I'm on it
I haven’t checked any other 2008 teams, but that seems like a remarkably large difference.
All the teams
ARI – scored 720 – should have scored 4.591*162 = 744 (-20 runs)
ATL – scored 753 – should have scored 4.848*162 = 785 (-32 runs)
BAL – scored 782 – should have scored 4.879*162 = 790 (-8 runs)
BOS – scored 845 – should have scored 5.484*162 = 888 (-43 runs)
CHC – scored 855 – should have scored 5.273*161 = 849 (+6 runs)
CHW – scored 811 – should have scored 5.050*163 = 823 (-12 runs)
CIN – scored 704 – should have scored 4.422*162 = 716 (-12 runs)
CLE – scored 805 – should have scored 4.879*162 = 790 (+15 runs)
COL – scored 747 – should have scored 4.737*162 = 767 (-20 runs)
DET – scored 821 – should have scored 5.110*162 = 828 (-7 runs)
FLA – scored 770 – should have scored 4.784*161 = 770 (even)
HOU – scored 712 – should have scored 4.556*161 = 734 (-22 runs)
KCR – scored 691 – should have scored 4.334*162 = 702 (-11 runs)
LAA – scored 765 – should have scored 4.682*162 = 758 (+7 runs)
LAD – scored 700 – should have scored 4.557*162 = 738 (-38 runs)
MIL – scored 750 – should have scored 4.770*162 = 773 (-23 runs)
MIN – scored 829 – should have scored 4.726*163 = 770 (59 runs)
NYM – scored 799 – should have scored 4.899*162 = 794 (5 runs)
NYY – scored 784 – should have scored 4.979*162 = 807 (-23 runs)
OAK – scored 646 – should have scored 3.967*162 = 643 (+3 runs)
PHI – scored 799 – should have scored 4.973*162 = 806 (-7 runs)
PIT – scored 735 – should have scored 4.394*162 = 712 (+23 runs)
SDP – scored 637 – should have scored 4.182*162 = 677 (-40 runs)
SFG – scored 640 – should have scored 4.170*162 = 676 (-36 runs)
SEA – scored 671 – should have scored 4.215*162 = 683 (-12 runs)
STL – scored 779 – should have scored 5.218*162 = 845 (-66 runs)
TBD – scored 774 – should have scored 4.910*162 = 795 (-21 runs)
TEX – scored 901 – should have scored 5.504*162 = 892 (+9 runs)
TOR – scored 714 – should have scored 4.482*162 = 726 (-12 runs)
WSN – scored 641 – should have scored 4.140*161 = 763 (-122 runs)
note: I only broke it up so it is easier to look at.
Only 8 teams had more runs than they should have. One team was even (FLA). The other 21 teams were worse than they should have been at scoring runs with their lineups. Washington was easily the worst at scoring runs that they should have. They had 122 runs less than would be predicted. Oakland should have been flat out horrible scoring runs (only 643 predicted, the only team under 4 per game) and they did have trouble scoring runs. Minnesota was the best at scoring runs compared to expectations. They scored 59 more runs than they should have statistically.
I thought that the research was interesting. It was strange to see how teams looked (in retrospect). A lot of teams had their 2nd or 3rd best hitter in the 6 spot all year. A lot of teams #7 were their worst hitters. One team’s worst OPS player led off. It was strange to see all of the discrepancies.
wow, great work.
it’s a lot more scattered than I thought it would be. guess the next step is trying to figure out what the factors were… FWIW, i did a little more crunching and the mean error for the lineup generator was -15.46, with a median error of -12. the 95% confidence interval is +/-11.5 runs.
Since Washington had a number of players greatly underperform their expectations, they might be surprisingly good next year…
the enemy's gate is down.
darn shame izturis doesn't bunt well............
if he would work hard at his bunting, he might gain opportunities to use his baserunning skills.
lol.......nah, just me, rod carew :)
and my 7 batting titles. nevermind, who needs good bunting skills. what was i thinking?
i keed.
by ball in play on Oct 16, 2008 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
the key to his success?
nope. the key to him avoiding slumps, which led to his titles.
by ball in play on Oct 16, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, saying if he could bunt might get him more oppurtunites to use his baserunning skills...
That’s like saying I could see myself speaking fluent Spanish if I was a native of Spain.
Which I’m not….
I keed ball in play I was just joshing with Red in chicago.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
hang tough
in another twenty years you’ll be rid of the majority of fans who appreciate small ball.
bunting for a hit is a lost art in todays game, wouldn’t you agree?
if a player can’t play long ball, i would hope his focus be on maximing his small ball skills. just me :)
not keeding :)
by ball in play on Oct 16, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of Joe Morgan I'm gonna continue rambling on here....
If Izturis can learn to bunt and some patience he could be the leadoff hitter we need. I doubt he’ll ever be Furcal but he is affordable and plays plus defense.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
i'll take the bait
there is absolutely no way he suddenly learns to be a helpful offensive player. there is nothing in his history to suggest it. he is what he is and we had better kick the tires on every available option before returning to iz2 for next year….
he actually hit better this year
than he did in his all-star year of 2005. Neither year was he good enough to bring back,.
He was almost acceptable in 2004, though.
the enemy's gate is down.
You mean that All-Star year
with the .302 OBP and the 66 OPS+? Maybe you are thinking of the year before when he had his career high .330 OBP and 88 OPS+.
Honestly, all this wishing about some sort of offensive resurrection from Izturis sounds just like the wishful thinking we heard last winter when he was signed. He put up a 67 OPS+ which just happens to match his career number. I would say the over and under number for 2009 would be…….67.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
cesar izturis
54 career bunt for hit attempts….20 hits………37% success rate…….until his BA surpasses .370, lol, i see bunting for a hit as a part of his skill set he should try to max out.
he has room for improvment.
“the average success rate for the 208 players with 50 or more career bunt for hit attempts since 1959 is exactly 50%”—dan fox—“laying one down”—baseball prospectus.
by ball in play on Oct 16, 2008 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If I could learn to hit major league fastballs out of the park
I could be a decent option off the bench.
Well,
then get working on that. We could use some power off the bench! J/K ;)
Better yet he should learn to be a clutch clean-up hitter that drives in runs....
"Why does he keep saying that?"
We already have one of those
he just happens to bat third.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
everyone knows robots can't hit a good fastball...
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
Or even better...
If Chris Duncan could learn to hit anything other than fastballs he could be a decent option off the bench.
If I could learn to dislike players for no apparent reason
and be insanely loyal to my personal favorites then I could be a major league manager.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
You also then might have a few pennants and rank somewhere near the top in all time wins.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
I should have called that one
BJ Upton hits 2-run homer. (“.187 with RISP? Okay, we’ll just keep runners off 2nd and 3rd.”)
The secret to the Rays’ success!
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Can we just trick the Rays into trading us BJ?
He can be added to the short list “I am okay with trading Rasmus if we get…”
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
there's more than one upton, right?
We can just hat-dance ’em.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
What about Randy Keisler and John Gall for Upton/Longoria?
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
LOL
If you can get the Rays to give us Upton/Longoria in exchange for OTHER teams’ minor leaguers, you should be the next GM!
Figured it'd take something like that so no one would think I wasn't joking (double negative alert!)
Wasn’t Gall in Japan for awhile even still?
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
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