Just the Right Bullets: the Majors
So far this offseason, we've all tossed out our very favourite trade targets on a pretty much daily basis, hashing and then rehashing the details of every deal that could possibly bring us that personal hobby horse we so dearly wish to have. And why not? It's our right as fans, damnit! There aren't any games going on (at least not for our boys in red), so we might as well talk about what could be for next season, right?
But what about the other side of the equation? We all know just which player- or players- that we would like to see the Cardinals pick up, but we rarely focus on the guys going the other way. The bullets, so to speak, that make the deal happen. Really, if you want to come up with a deal that just may actually work, it's probably best to start with your own side, rather than looking at who you want. Figure out how much value you yourself have, and go from there.
So, with that in mind, let's treat some human beings like chattel, shall we? It doesn't have to be a comprehensive examination, of course. I thought that, to start at least, we'll take a look just at what the Cards already have at the big league level. Call it a bird in the hand situation. I think that most of us know who the trade chips are. Now let's see just how good a chips they are.
Adam Kennedy- Hey, I figured we would start out right at the top. The top, of course, as in the top of most fans' wish lists to be moved this offseason.
I have to say, at this point, I think that Adam Kennedy has pretty negligible trade value. He is still a very, very good defensive second baseman; most of the defensive metrics had him amongst the very best at the position in 2008. It appears that at least some of his problems in 2007 were caused largely by his knee malady, and he looks to be healthy again. Unfortunately, Kennedy's bat apparently didn't get the memo that his knee was supposed to contain some sort of miraculous fountain of youth chemical that would begin pouring out the second it was operated on, because it has just refused to come back out of hiding. He did hit better in '08 than in '07, thankfully, but that's a lot like saying that getting punched in the crotch is quite a lot better than getting kicked in the crotch. Either way, it just isn't all that much fun.
Bottom line, any team that agrees to take on Kennedy's salary, even for a single season, simply isn't going to give the Cardinals much in return. He's a pure salary dump player, useful really only as part of a package deal, I think.
Skip Schumaker- Yeah, I know he's a fan favourite, as well as a manager favourite. Still, when it comes right down to it, Skippy is replaceable.
Now, that's not to say he doesn't have some real value. He's a very strong defender, and doesn't fit too badly at the top of a lineup. His plate discipline came a long way this season, and he still makes good contact. He even showed a modicum of pop at times. He's still relatively cheap, so that certainly helps. As one of our posters states so very eloquently in his signature, Skip and Kosuke Fukudome are roughly equivalent players, and the Cobbler isn't going to cost you eleven million a year.
I have to say, I'm sort of hoping to see Skip get moved this winter. I think he has pretty good value on the market, while the Cardinals have options internally that I think would be much better in the long run. I like Skip, don't think for a second that I don't, but he's really a pretty damned good trade chip.
Troy Glaus- Glaus is a bit of a left field trade piece, I know, but still a valid one, I think. He's under contract for the 2009 season, having exercised his option when he was dealt to the Cards last offseason. Given the numbers he put up this past season, Glaus would be quite a deal for anyone looking to add some serious pop at the hot corner.
The problem with Glaus, of course, is that he has a complete no trade clause that he would have to waive before any deal could actually get done. He seems quite happy here in St. Louis, and I'm sure would require a pretty substantial inducement to waive the clause. I would think that he would probably be interested in playing on the west coast only, and any team looking to get him would probably need to offer him at least a three year extension. Unfortunately, that limits his trade value fairly significantly. Still, a guy with his numbers and pedigree might still be able to bring a pretty penny on the open market, and the Cards are suddenly awash in third base prospects who are at least relatively near the show.
Ryan Ludwick- Oy. This one is tough to suggest, to be perfectly honest. There's no way you give up a guy who puts up the type of numbers that Ludwick is capable of, right? Well, there are certainly reasons to at least consider it.
First off, Luddy has a pretty extensive injury history. I know, it seems a little callous to consider trading a guy because he's had trouble staying healthy, but that is the situation. He's had two healthy seasons in a row, after many, many years of near-constant time spent on the DL. Can he keep himself in one piece for a third year in a row?
Second, while the numbers Luddy put up this year were certainly impressive, you also have to be cautious about putting too very much weight on them. As much of a question as his health is, you absolutely have to have the exact same concerns about how real this level of production is.
So what you have here is a player right around thirty years old, with one pretty good and one outstanding year under his belt. He's still cost controlled, as his service time is only in the two year range, so that does help his value. Still, you have to question just how much a team is going to be willing to gamble on Luddy being reality, rather than just a one year wonder.
Rick Ankiel- Another tough one. The kid's been with the organisation forever, so there's obviously some serious emotional ties between he and the team, not to mention the fans. I have to think that Mozeliak would be, at the least, hesitant to move Rick.
On the upside, Ankiel is ridiculously talented, in almost every facet of the game. He's got power to spare, showed the ability to hit for at least a fair average, and can play the outfield quite well. He's probably better suited for right field than center, but he's quite adequate either place. The arm, of course, doesn't hurt matters any, as runners have to be on the lookout for him tossing them out anywhere, at any time.
On the downside, Ankiel is almost thirty himself, has a pretty extensive injury history, and still doesn't really have a whole lot in the way of plate discipline. His track record is very limited, yet he's also close to free agency. A team looking to pick up Rick would essentially be getting only one year of cost controlled performance, thus driving his value down. Overall, all the caveats with Ludwick apply to Ankiel too, only moreso. He has some value, certainly, if only because of his talent, but Rick Ankiel just isn't as good a commodity as many seem to believe.
Chris Duncan- This one, honestly, is probably a non-starter from the get go. Duncan just had pretty radical surgery on his neck; the sort of surgery, in fact, that doesn't really have any kind of precedent for an athlete coming back from. He has about two thirds of a good season, to be honest, he can't play the outfield, and that's pretty much all there is to say about that.
Chris may come back in 2009 and turn himself back into the valuable commodity he was after the 2006 season. Then again, he may not. Either way, he's not getting moved this offseason, and has really no value even if he were.
Chris Perez- Now here's an intriguing fellow. We all know of Perez's limitations, and we've seen just what he can do all the same. You want a player that could net you something serious on the trade market, brother, this is it.
What we have here is a young, cost controlled, close to closer ready pitcher with very little injury history and an absolutely electric arm. He does have some pesky issues with his control, of course, but when he's on, he's unhittable already, and he's just a baby. The sky is the limit with Perez; of course, that's also probably the reason you would hope not to move a guy like him.
Bottom line, Perez is probably the Cards' best trade chip at the major league level. (And yes, I consider him a major league pitcher, no matter what La Russa might say about the plans for him next year.) He is the most valuable to the Cardinals, but also the most valuable to most other teams as well. If you're looking to bring in a guy like, say, a Brandon Wood or the like, Perez is likely the sort of player you'll end up having to use to get it done.
Come to think of it, while watching the Rays in the postseason, one can't help but notice that they're using Dan Wheeler, and not the good Wheeler, to be honest, to try and close out games. While the name Zobrist is getting thrown around a lot 'round these parts, I think Perez is worth more than that. The Rays do, of course, just happen to have a guy, plays shortstop, down in the minors. Name of Brignac, I believe...
And really, that's about it. Guys like Thompson and Pineiro, I honestly don't think they have a whole lot of value. Pineiro is waaayy too expensive for what you get, and Thompson just isn't worth much on the market. I could be wrong about Puppy Kicker, at least, but I don't think I am. I still consider Mather a minor leaguer, as his time here was very, very limited. So, to be honest, those are probably the best bullets that the Cards have to deal with this offseason. Most of the other players I could bring up are, in one way or another, much more necessary to the team. As much as I like Bryan Anderson, I'd be awfully leery of dealing Yadier Molina. The middle infielders are all free agents or named Aaron Miles.
So that's the crop. What do you guys think?
0 recs |
141 comments
Comments
Skip's always a possibility
he’s probably the most replaceable player on the team. We’re relatively deep in the OF, and Skip appears to be only a platoon player, given his awful splits vs. lefties.
Perez — though I’d like to keep him, I also would like him to close though I could go w/ him as a setup man provided we don’t spend lot of $ or lots of prospects acquiring a closer. However, if Tony isn’t committed to him — and won’t be for the forseeable future — he surely has as much trade value as anybody on the active roster. It would seem to me that a trade package to acquire a good young SS could be built around Perez.
The other one is Ankiel. The Cards should definitely consider trading Rick if they can acquire a good, young player for him — either an SP, a closer, or a SS. Ankiel’s 30 next year and will be a free agent in 1 year. He’s also replaceable w/ Rasmus and, as a free agent, will likely be lost after the season anyway. His trade value could be pretty high.
I know that there’s a contingent of Cards’ fans who assume the Cards will resign him at the end of the season but I’ve got my doubts. He’ll earn a lot of $ on the open market, has Boras for an agent (which means he’s looking to get paid), and it’ll be his one and only chance to hit the jackpot. Even if we could sign him after next season, I’m not convinced it would be a good idea. Would we have signed Torii Hunter to the contract he got from the Angels. A good season from Ankiel would mean he’s liable to receive a Torii Hunter-like contract.
by chuckb on Oct 15, 2008 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I prefer...
to try and let Ankiel improve his value in the first half.
Next year is TLR and DD’s last season here most likely, and I think we’re going to GO FOR IT. With Rick’s back problems and such I think he might be able to raise his value with a healthy first half in 2009. Hopefully in the same time Rasmus is transitioning nicely into a big league CFer. If I’m right Rick could bring back a pretty serious haul in July (while not hurting the team – Rasmus, Ludwick, Mather). Someone(s) has to go in the OF, be it Skip, Mather, or Rick. I prefer Skip in the offseason, as (like you said) he is the most replaceable, and his value is probably at its peak and moving Rick during the year.
Mather has more value I think than RB is giving him credit for. He is probably pretty close to on par with Skip in value, as he has legitimate 30 HR potential, doesn’t have a terrible split, gets on base, and plays solid defense – he also should have one less season of service time. I also feel he has more value to the Cards than Skip does.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 15, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually,
I didn’t say Mather doesn’t have value, I simply look at him more as being still a minor leaguer. I left out Motte for the same reason. I’ll be looking at some of those guys in the future.
Victory is sweet, even deep in the cheap seats.
by the red baron on Oct 15, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB...
considers Mather a major leaguer…his rookie status is not intact.
I apologize for misremembering what I read.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 15, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh.
You’re right, he isn’t a rookie anymore. That’s weird. I had no idea he had so many at bats. He still feels like an unproven commodity to me as compared to a guy like, say, Perez. With Perez, it feels like we saw enough of him that you can pretty much see what kind of a player he’s going to be. Mather, though, it seemed like we saw just enough to be intrigued, but I certainly didn’t think he was a totally finished product, by any means.
I guess I should have included him here. You know, I really should start actually researching things, rather than just sitting down and typing things pretty much straight out of memory.
Victory is sweet, even deep in the cheap seats.
by the red baron on Oct 15, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He showed flashes of being really good to me
Our perception I guess of his dev curve is about the same, he’s not nearly as “proven” to me as Perez—-but with a normal BABIP his major league line would be .270/.325/.500, which matches up decently with his MLE of .258/.359/.498, and it seems he has the athleticism/frame to go much higher…
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 15, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Optimism on Mather
Don’t know about the whole injury thing, but:
Mather ’08 .241/.306/.474
Luddy ’07 .267/.339/.479
Oh, and BTW RB, don’t trade Luddy.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 15, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
in that I’m still not sure what to expect from Mather, and I doubt that many other clubs really have much of an idea who he is…thus limiting his trade value.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 15, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading Ankiel
who is often injured, 30, and nearly a free agent seems like a good idea to me. However, from an organizational standpoint, that just wouldn’t be good business in terms of “putting asses in seats.” Ankiel is one of the handful of guys that gets everyone out to the park, sells T-shirts, etc. I just can’t see them trading him this soon after his huge comeback to the Show.
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on Oct 15, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
STL doesn't have a problem.....
Getting butts in the seats, or selling merchandise.
We still have Albert, Ludwick, Yadi, Waino, and some others that do just that.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 15, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pegged that about right
I hate to admit it, but as much as some of us are attached to Roy, we’ll get over it just as we did watching So Taguchi, Rolen, Edmonds, and others go. And the more success we have, the sooner we forget (ref. Simmons, Ted).
by random on Oct 15, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
on the same token
I wouldn’t mind seeing him stay. laser beams from the outfield are nice.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would
pay good money to watch so taguchi leave over and over again
by spencegrif on Oct 15, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Simple Fact
Boras almost ALWAYS takes his clients to the Free Agency market. That is why they sign with Boras. He handles the negotiations for them. I know Lohse didn’t go to FA this year but this is because Boras failed him last year.
Rick Ankiel is so gone and can almost promise you he will not be a Cardinal in 2010. The question is do you hope that you might get a draft pick for him or trade him now for something better. I just don’t see him getting moved mid season for anyone.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 15, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ankiel signed with boras
in 1997, though. He didn’t just recently fire Bob Smith (the fictitious agent known for giving hometown discounts) and hire the Evil One.
But if we could trade Ankiel for Cano or peralta or uggla, etc, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 15, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
STL hasn't had problems in the past
and I don’t necessarily expect them to in the future. I’m just saying that Ankiel has to be one of the biggest fan favorites. I would say top 3 with AP and Molina if I had to guess, noting that Wainwright is only out there 1/5 days. With the current economic issues, I think that baseball and sports in general can’t take attendance for granted. People are going to be much more conservative with their money these days. Also, about the selling merchandise, I didn’t say the Cards had a problem. I said people buy Ankiel stuff. Unless you have a player come in who compares in popularity with Rick Ankiel, sales will dip if you lose him. Pretty simple business.
All that said, I’m certainly not against trading Ankiel, I’m just explaining why I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on Oct 15, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 15, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
u can't put butts in the seats if he doesn't play...and Ankiel is bound for an injury soon
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on Oct 15, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That seems like
an irrational reason to trade him. “He won’t get people to come out to the park because he won’t be playing.” See my reply to Soonerfan
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on Oct 16, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you hit on.....
all the pertinant facts. I don’t think Glaus is really an option to be moved, for a couple of reasons. First, I don’t think we have a replacement that will approach his production next year. Second, I don’t see Glaus wanting to go anywhere else. And third, I really like the idea of letting him walk next year and possibly getting some draft picks out of the deal.
As for who I would trade? It’s dependent on what kind of deals we can make, and what management really thinks of Rasmus and Perez, especially in regards to next season. I’d like to see us move Ankiel and maybe Perez. Go with an OF of Ludwick, Skip/Barton/Mather, and Rasmus. I’d like to see us land Furcal, but I don’t know that that is going to happen, so we might be forced to trade for a SS, which isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Hopefully we can dump AK off somewhere. I’m pretty much counting on Lopez being the 2B, and Miles being the MI off the bench.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 15, 2008 12:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The whole issue isn't who we would trade--
as you allude to—it’s for whom we would trade. Trade Ryan Ludwick? Okay, maybe for Tulowitzski or Hanley Ramirez. But for, I dunno, Dan Uggla? I don’t think so. Likewise with Perez, Ankiel and Rasmus. These are guys who give you significant MLB capability now. You can’t just give them and their OPS to someone else without replacing them. The holes, as everyone knows are in the middle infield. So what are talking about here? If we aren’t getting back a slugging shortstop or a left fielder with serious power, we’re not really upgrading the team. You want to trade a bunch of these guys? Sure, for Roy Halladay…
Value for value. We’re only talking about one side of the equation. I’m not sure what the point of doing that is. Pretty much everyone on the team except Pujols could be traded under the right deal.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 15, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if we could get a good Young Shortstop for Young Pitcher...
it would be worth a trade otherwise i would keep Perez. i would do Wood, Brignac and maybe Zorbrist but the latter scares me on defense and i cant seem to get over that. Although i must admit i haven’t given up on Kozma, yet, but at the very least it will be 2011 before he is ready.
I agree with “The Artist Formally Known as HC” re: Ankiel… im not sold we will resign him and there is no way he should be off limits. if your name isn’t Pujols, ADAM, or Yadi you are fair game…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Oct 15, 2008 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Zobrist..
I wonder how playing on that fast carpet hurts his defensive numbers?
Besides Zobrist will be 28 next year. I would not trade Chris Perez for Zobrist.
I know you said maybe, but I don’t think I would make that deal. I would trade Perez for a younger version of Zobrist maybe.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 15, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
youre right
the more i think about it there would have to be other pieces involved…although you cant look at Zobrist’s on-base skills and not be impressed…i think the carpet is a trade off. it is a lot faster but it plays a lot truer too…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Oct 15, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes his OBP skills look pretty good at the Minor League level......
Honestly Jason Bartlette is probably better than Zobrist once you factor in defense at the MLB level though.
I would not trade Perez for Jason Bartlette……..
Zobrist is the type of guy you trade a Joe Mather for maybe. The Cards are deep at RH relief pitching but Perez has more upside than Zobrist does, even though Zobrist plays a more important position.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 15, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
like i said it would have to include more than just YP for Z but
i dont think Bartlett is as good as Zobrist obviously the Rays do and they are smarter than me but in 2007 OPS+: Zobrist =123 Bartlett=85 +/-: Zobrist= -8 Bartlett= -1. Now Z did have fewer chances and fewer PA but at worst they were even this year and Z is younger…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Oct 15, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's just damb tough to find a SS that's for sure............
I am very interested to see what STL does about the SS issue for sure.
Remember how many people wanted HU last year.. Wow he was awful for LA.
by ICbirdfan on Oct 15, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still want him.
One bad year offensively at age 23 does not end a career for a guy with GG ability at SS.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 15, 2008 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point about the turf
also, the turf/dirt interface causes some tough hops, according to one of the idiot announcers talking during the baseball game the other night. So the “plays true” bit might not be correct, esp compared to ubermanicured mlb infields elsewhere.
For reference, Bartlett went from 13 in ’06 and +18 in ’07 (21ish both years, when scaled for 1450 innings played) in MIN to -1 in tampa bay in ’08. Brendan Harris improved going the other way (TBR to MIN), as well. So there could be real meat to this argument.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 15, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Troy Glaus
moving to grass seemed to help Glaus this year too. maybe he had a healthy knee, maybe Oquendo helped him, maybe it was getting off the turf – either way I’m not sure anyone expected him to compete for a Gold Glove this year.
by Knighttime on Oct 15, 2008 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
young pitcher
the weird thing about perez is that if we got rid of him, we’d be in the market for a veteran closer….yet even with him, we’re in the market for a veteran closer. I’m not sure if that’s an argument for trading him or for Mo to show that restraint in the free agent market is the better part of valor.
by spencegrif on Oct 15, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Peavey + Greene
Over on ole’ ESPN Buster Olney mentions in his video blog that the Padres might move Khalil greene and Jake Peavy together. He cites the Cardinals as obvious suitors. What would the Redbirds have to give up for a tandem like that, and would they even want it?
by eephuspieces on Oct 15, 2008 12:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hot Stove threads and Trading Rasmus Fanposts
There’s plenty of discussion over there about this topic. No need to start one here.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why not?
Red Baron asked what we thought about trades. He is staying on topic to a pretty decent extent.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Oct 15, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not being the post police here
I just thought that if he hadn’t been there yet that he’d get nearly everything he’s looking for on those threads rather than having to sift through this thread to get it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Might as well
Just sign CC than trade for Peavy. With Peavy you have to pay him around $15 million a year for the next couple years AND give up 3 Solid prospects that our cost controlled. With CC you just have to give up a draft pick and around $20 million. 3 Prospects> $5 mil a year plus 1st round draft pick.
In the end I don’t want to see them sign Peavy or CC.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 15, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
in addition to your post
Santana is getting $23M a year for 6 years and a $25M option for the 7th. I would guess that is about what CC is going to get too.
Mets gave up four prospects for Santana – 3 of them pitchers.
Makes your argument 4 prospects>$8M a year plus a 1st round pick.
by Knighttime on Oct 15, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel
His situation with the Cardinals this offseason reminds me a little bit of Josh Hamilton’s situation with the Reds a couple of years ago. The Reds had taken a flier on Hamilton by trading for him when the Cubs took him in the Rule 5 draft, full well knowing that they had a stud CF prospect in the minors in Jay Bruce. Hamilton came up in the middle of the season and turned in a year very similar to the year that Ankiel turned in in 2008 while being banged up occasionally, as Rick was this year. The Reds were able to deal Hamilton to the Rangers after the 2007 season and got Edinson Volquez back, who is one of the best young pitchers around.
That’s my quandry: If you’re able to make a trade for a pitcher similar to Volquez (i.e. fairly untested at the big league level,and there are some out there: Philip Hughes, Nick Adenhart, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Phil Humber, etc.) do you deal Ankiel for him straight up? I know some of the things don’t line up, contract situation, the fact that Hamilton was a former #1 pick and by all rights a fantastic hitter at one time, and Hamilton is still a bit younger than Ankiel.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i would trade Ank
for any of those guys but i dont see it happening especially straight up. that is the idea of trading; take from a surplus (outfield) and trade for a weakness (starting pitching)
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Oct 15, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
who's going to want to take Ankiel for 1 season?
it will seriously degrade his trade value. I do like the idea of trading him mid-season though to a team looking for more power to get into the playoffs
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thank you, red baron
for bringing some of the trade talk back to reality. Skip is probably the one I’d like to see traded. I’d prefer to get bullpen help in return. Skip for Zobrist was discussed in an earlier post, but since then I’ve seen some research on Zobrist’s defense and I’d pass on that deal. Ankiel has too high a ceiling to let go. Although he’s 30 he only has two seasons as a hitter and he is a fast learner. His plate discipline will improve and he’ll stop getting himself out. He’s seen less than two years of major league pitching. When he forces the pitchers to get him out he’ll resemble Albert, and it’ll be from the left side.
None of the outfielders has to be moved however, if they want to trade Rasmus. I can’t get a read on what they think of him anymore. I know he’s a topic for a later post, but it seems to me all their offseason moves are predicated on what they plan to do with him.
by vinniefromjersey on Oct 15, 2008 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have some issues with your opinions vis a vis Ankiel
His plate discipline will improve and he’ll stop getting himself out. He’s seen less than two years of major league pitching
Most guys improve plate discipline overall during their career, but Ankiel always seems to revert to his free swinging self in certain situations (especially late and close), and he’s not all that adept at fouling off pitches. He’s also fooled by hard breaking stuff fairly easily, and guys like that don’t generally grow out of it (ask Alfonso Soriano or Richie Sexson). As for the second part, this could be a help and also a hindrance. The more AB’s he has, the more scouts get a book on him and the more pitchers figure out how to pitch him. He may become a better hitter, but he’ll also probably see fewer balls that he’s going to hammer 80% of the time as well.
When he forces the pitchers to get him out he’ll resemble Albert, and it’ll be from the left side.
Your first quote was like glass half full stuff — this quote is like glass overflowing with holy water. :-) I think his high upside is similar to Jim Edmonds: Good outfield defense, lots of strikeouts, decent on base ability, and will have slumps where he’s absolutely atrocious. That said, that is far, FAR short of being “Albert from the left side” — in the last half century there’s only a couple of guys that could put up those type of numbers, and Ankiel will never be that type of player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
didn't he have a
12 pitch AB this season and several other long ones? Time will tell.
by vinniefromjersey on Oct 15, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had an 17 pitch AB early on
in the season against Villenueva that drew a walk, but I still agree with fourstick. Ank has the potential to be great, but left handed resemblance of Albert is dreaming.
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Oct 15, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you remember that one
I remember a various amount of 3 and 4 pitch AB’s in the late innings where a little patience goes a long way — flailing at breaking balls out of the strike zone by 2 feet is not going to build consistency at getting on base
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent point on Ank
I love him, but his high leverage (.691 OPS) and late’n’close (.420 OPS) were abysmal. I don’t know how optimistic I can be on that improving dramatically.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 15, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Edmonds had great on-base skills
and is a borderline HOF’er and would be a sure thing if he got to play in the majors before age 23. i dont think Ankiel upside is that high. Ankiel probably has more raw power and a stronger (but not as accurate) arm but that is about it. and youre right he is definitely no Albert from the left side…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Oct 15, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not so sure about that
edmonds had a 62 OPS+ at 23 and an 82 OPS+ at age 24. If he had been brought up earlier, it probably would have hurt his HOF chances, not helped them.\
He is definitely not Albert, but if he could be the second coming of Jimmy, that would be a pretty good thing.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 15, 2008 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Edmonds isn't being held back by numbers like OPS+
Remember this is a large collection of generally ill-informed people voting for this award. The lack of 400 HRs is a huge issue in their minds. A few extra seasons may have pushed that number over the arbitrary dividing line.
by azruavatar on Oct 15, 2008 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point
he’ll have at least one more year to try to get to 400, though. Someone will give him a shot for 2009.
He actually wouldn’t be a bad match for NYY.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 15, 2008 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cubbies might
unless they fix that hole in the winter, Felix Pie is probably not their answer at CF. it’s possible they bring Jimmy back for another year.
by Knighttime on Oct 15, 2008 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Edmonds was a better player than Pujols in '02 and '04...
I’ll bet a dollar Ankiel will never put up .301 .418 .643.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 15, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
301 418 643
i’d love to believe that but I don’t. For better or worse, TLR has adopted Rick Ankiel. The man’s prejudices work in both directions (both for and against). If we ink Ankiel to a LT deal, I don’t see any reason to keep Rasmus. Might as well sell him to the highest bidder.
by jjray on Oct 15, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily
They would make an incredible tandem in CF and RF. You could put anyone in left. Even Chris Duncan.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 15, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Getting awfully..
LH’d in the OF there don’t you think. I think Ank, Ludwick and Rasmus could play in the same OF with Mather and Barton as reserves…that would be one STRONG OF rotation.
In a perfect world Chris Duncan goes on a tear this Spring and we can flip him for something useful.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 15, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree
I was trying to come up with the worst-fielding name I could think of. Maybe I should have said Felipe Lopez?
by Red in Chicago on Oct 15, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rasmus and Ank in the OF
Let’s assume Luddy has earned an OF spot based on 2008 performance. Ank and Rasmus start means Skip and Duncan sit. That makes all the sense in the world to any of us not named LaRussa but there is no chance in hell that Rasmus starts ahead of Skip and Duncan in 2009 unless Skip is traded and Duncan is physically unable to play. In fact, I’ll go further and say Rasmus has next to zero chance of making the opening day roster in 2009 with TLR as coach. Failure to get a September callup spoke volumes. Rasmus has to go to Memphis and tear it completely up for a few months so JMo can force Rasmus on TLR when one of our outfielders gets hurt.
by jjray on Oct 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skip is our best trade asset
He is healthy, productive, cheap, and we have to many OFer’s as is. He has to go.
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 15, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why not go with an exceptional outfield?
just think Ankiel, Rasmus, Ludwick in the outfield with a platoon of Barton and Mather. that outfield is just ridiculous. even if Luddy falls off, Mather or Barton can take his place.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guess I shoulda
read your post ’fore I posted.
by cardzfanbub on Oct 15, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, you had it right
I’m a different guy in Chicago. We all sound alike, though. It’s the Old Style and stuff.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 15, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow this gets even more convoluted
I meant to reply to your post
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
war of will
indeed TLR has adopted Ankiel as well as Duncan, Miles, and it appears Lopez. It will be interesting to see how much weight that carries with Mo this winter. If Ankiel gets traded, that pretty much says Colby Ramus is not only on the opening day roster – but he’s in the starting lineup. That scenario would not be TLR’s prefered plan – but maybe the best thing for the organization.
by Knighttime on Oct 15, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope Tony knows how to pull up Baseball Reference
Because Lopez’s slash line with the Cardinals sure screams “outlier” to me. Same for you, Mo. Don’t sign that guy!
by Red in Chicago on Oct 15, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lopez was the luckest player in baseball
On his stretch with the Cardinals to the tune of over .200 OPS
by FlimtotheFlam on Oct 15, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would bet that as well
But we’re talking about the best year of Edmonds career. I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that Ankiel could put up a line of .284/.377/.528, which are Edmonds career averages. The only tough one for him would probably be drawing that many walks, as his plate discipline would have to vastly improve to walk that many times since he’s such a high-strikeout type player.
I also totally disagree that he was a better player than Pujols in 2001 and 2004. 2001 was Albert’s rookie year and he put up a 157 OPS+ to Edmonds 149. In 2004, Albert put up a 172 to Edmonds 170. Defensively you could make the argument about 2004 because Albert was at first base by that time, but Albert played quality defense at 3B, LF, and 1B in 2001 and was the better hitter by 8 OPS+ points. Those are two of Alberts worst seasons at the plate in terms of OPS+ and Edmonds’ best two years couldn’t surpass him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for reference
Ank’s first half this year: .270/.343/.537 .880 OPS with 20 homers.
and he missed some games at the end of May with an injury as well. If he could replicate that into a whole season you’re looking at the best CF in the game right now. I don’t think it’s completely out of the realm of possibility if he could stay healthy.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ank staying healthy?
I dont see how you could look at Ank’s injuries (both numerous and diverse) along with his age and feel that he is ever going to be a ‘healthy’ player. And I dont think extrapolating his first half stats for a full year is wise either. He produced a line that is consistent with many of his preseason projections – James, PECOTA, etc. for a reason – he’s injury prone. There’s a ton of players that you can make the same argument for by doubling a half season’s worth of production – it’s what fantasy geeks do to fill up articles. Also, to compare Ankiel’s offense and moreover his defense with Edmonds is ridiculous, I think. Ankiel has a cannon, but routinely misses cutoffs or overthrows Yadi altogether. The two throws in Colorado were incredible, but I remember a couple where he airmailed homeplate by 10 feet. He also has nowhere near the range that Edmonds had and quite often takes poor if not just plain bizarre routes to fly balls. I think some of us are either forgetting or undervaluing how great Edmonds was for the Redbirds.
As far as trading him, I dont think he would net anything close to the young SP’s mentioned due to his age and upcoming contract issues so the prudent move would be to keep him. If we could trade him for a solid MIF upgrade and sign Adam Dunn I think the lineup would be worlds better. But to expect anything more than a solid 6 hole hitter and RF would be setting yourself up for dissapointment.
by rlgosnell on Oct 15, 2008 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're short-selling then
Which you have the right to do, but I wasn’t saying to double his home run total for the second half, that wouldn’t be a prudent thing to do.
Basically you’re saying that he can’t stay healthy for 140 games in a season? Ryan Ludwick would like a word with you. He was hurt the ENTIRE second half of the season — you just want to predict that to happen every single year? That’s more ridiculous than doubling his 1st half totals.
He produced a line that is consistent with many of his preseason projections
Yup, it was injury related. It had nothing to do with the fact that he has very little track record in the majors or minors as an outfielder coming into 2008.
Ankiel’s offense and moreover his defense with Edmonds is ridiculous,
\
They are similar type players — I wasn’t comparing them, I was simply saying that Ankiel could put up numbers close to Edmonds career averages if he could stay healthy. I think that’s being reasonably optimistic. He’s not as good as Jim in CF and I think he should move to RF to make room for Rasmus, who is a premier CF defensively. Show me the part of this quote where I say that Ankiel is the second coming of Edmonds (I’ve bolded the important words here):
I think his high upside is similar to Jim Edmonds: Good outfield defense, lots of strikeouts, decent on base ability, and will have slumps where he’s absolutely atrocious.
Also, where does Ankiel’s first half rank among big league centerfielder’s entire seasons? He’d be behind Josh Hamilton and ahead of Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran. HIs season OPS was .836, which still puts him in top 6 among CF and among the top 25 outfielders in all of baseball. If you figure that his full season projection would be around .845 than he’s a top 5 CF and a top 20 OF. Pretty damn good company.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Putting up a single season at that line and having a true talent ceiling at that are different
If that’s how you were defining ceiling—-Ankiel can have one season at Edmonds career averages—-OK I can go with that, but Edmonds averaged a ~155 OPS+ player from ‘00-’04, I doubt Ankiel is capable of that in one season let alone 5 in a row. This isn’t a knock on Ankiel, it’s that Edmonds was that damn good.
- I said 2002 not ‘01 and Edmonds was a straight up better hitter than Pujols. Call it cherry picking if you will, but it still stands Edmonds was better in 2 of Pujols’ first 4 seasons (I’ll get to ’04…now)
#2. If you want to discount the fact that finding a CF’er that can hit slightly worse than Albert Pujols is impossible: I don’t know what to tell you.
#3. Passively mentioning Edmonds’ gold glove defense in relation to Albert being an average defender? Really?
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 15, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well...
Ank’s first half this year: .270/.343/.537 .880 OPS with 20 homers
That’s pretty damn good. In fact, that’s a better half season than probably all but the top 3 or 4 CF’s in the big leagues this year. Just a guess.
He’s not going to ever hit for a high average, we know this. Does he have a chance to become a .360 OBP player? Yes. Does he have the chance to become a .570 slugger? Yes. Could he put up that above line over the course of a full season? I think he could if he could stay healthy.
I said his “upside” is that of a Jim Edmonds “type” player. Not that he’s going to become the second Jim Edmonds — stop taking things so literally.
If you want to argue that a Jim Edmonds in his prime is a more valuable player than Albert Pujols in his prime, you can — but I’m not because I find that ridiculous, considering the fact that Albert hasn’t even hit his prime yet.
Call it cherry picking if you will, but it still stands Edmonds was better in 2 of Pujols’ first 4 seasons
No, he wasn’t, and the numbers show it — they were pretty much even in both of those years, and we’re talking about Edmonds’ prime years and Pujols’ first five years. Adding defense you can make a case, but Pujols was an above average third baseman and LF during 2002 and one of the best 1st baseman in 2004. You can’t discount him as a “worse player” because he doesn’t play a premium defensive position. He’s as good as the best in his positions both years while hitting nearly as good as Edmonds in 2 of Jimmy’s best seasons. That’s like saying the Edmonds was better than Barry Bonds in 2002 because he plays a tougher defensive position — that’s outrageous and you know it
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh boy
(To defend the purpose of this post before anyone even reads it: I’m #1 pointing out how unbelievable Edmonds was during his time in St. Louis—-I guess it took the shock value of comparing some of his seasons to Pujols’ to do it, #2 how comparing Ankiel to Edmonds is unfair.)
That’s like saying the Edmonds was better than Barry Bonds in 2002 because he plays a tougher defensive position — that’s outrageous and you know it
You can strawman me to death if you’d like, I’ll stick to your actual argument.
You can’t discount him as a "worse player" because he doesn’t play a premium defensive position. He’s as good as the best in his positions both years while hitting nearly as good as Edmonds in 2 of Jimmy’s best seasons.
Here we’ll run the real numbers. 2002 in Batting Runs above average (linear weights=good), Edmonds 44.8, Pujols 44.6. They were pretty much the same hitter. Please don’t even try to tell me that Pujols playing “above average defense” is in the same league as Edmonds being the best centerfielder in the league. 2002 Edmonds > 2002 Pujols
Since I need to explain the positional thing: in 2004 Carlos Beltran was the 2nd best hitting CF’er in the Majors, he had 28.8 Batting Runs . Edmonds had 56.1. 27 runs better than 2nd place. The 2nd best non-Edmonds hitting season by a CF’er was Darin Erstad (seriously) at 38.6 in 2000. Edmonds in 2004 was better by 18 runs than the 2nd best CFer season in the last 8 years. It was the best season by a CF since Griffey in 1997 I believe.
Pujols in 2004 posted 66.5, Todd Helton (yes, it’s park adjusted) had 64.0, Berkman 57.3. Pujols is still the best 1B…….but he didn’t have the best season at his position in the past 12 years by close to 2 wins. Position makes a big difference. Oh yeah, Edmonds probably makes up the 10 runs on defense regardless.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 15, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, basically
You’re calling them even. Great, glad you spent the time to type all that out to say exactly what I was saying in the above post.
You want to talk about sticking to an argument? I was simply refuting someone that said Ankiel could be the “Albert Pujols from the left side”, then I get lambasted for comparing Ank’s skill set on his “high upside” to that of Jim Edmonds. Dude, you need a life if you want to split hairs like this all the time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 16, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Took 10 minutes in a class I don't need to pay attention to other than for attendance...
And I didn’t say they were even in those seasons.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 16, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This was my whole point
They were pretty much the same hitter.
Yes, they were.
They’re both good/great defensive players — Edmonds plays a premium position, Albert doesn’t. I have a hard time holding that against Albert because he wasn’t born to be a centerfielder. If you want to, that’s fine by me. In terms of Ankiel being the equal of either guy from 2004, I don’t see that ever happening.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 16, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OT: Bill James website and Chrome
is anyone else having trouble on Bill James’ site while using Google Chrome? i cant get the stats to work and it very much is a pain…i have to go back to IE just to look up fielding stats :(
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Oct 15, 2008 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It has to do with the plug-ins for that page
You’re not alone…make sure that you have the feedback to Google box checked in Chrome as it will help them solve these issues.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, works fine in firefox
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on Oct 15, 2008 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good post
maybe some kind of trade package involving Skip, Flamethrower, and AK7 is on the horizon?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
we should have traded Ludwick at the deadline, when his value was extremely high because we are a “moneyball” team now?
my impression of that philosophy is to sell high and use cost controlled young talent. Ludwick is cost controlled, but he’s also 30…I dont think he has a long future with the team, especially with Rasmus on the horizon as I believe that will move Ankiel to right. the emotional ties are just to great with Ankiel, and the StL fans value him more than anyone else does, we’d just never get what we would expect in return.
by UNCDubya on Oct 15, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick is for real
He may or may not match his ‘08 numbers again, but it won’t be because ’08 was a fluke year. Anyone who has seen him in person can tell you he makes consistent solid contact, And I mean serious line drive power. That is the kind of hitter you can count on… unless he gets hurt.
by abothecardinal on Oct 15, 2008 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
fluke injuries
weren’t his injuries flukes? Usually it’s joint and tendon/ligament problems that linger, but i thought his was like a broken leg or something ridiculous.
by spencegrif on Oct 15, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Luddy's injuries
Stress fracture in hip and spine.
Fracture in right wrist.
Both knees have had injuries, at least one of them cartilage-related.
Bleeding ulcer.
Oblique issues.
by spants on Oct 15, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
I knew Luddy had an injury history but didn’t realize it was that extensive. Just flipping amazing this guy has battled back to make the AllStar team.
by jjray on Oct 15, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It really is.
I don’t want to trade Luddy and I don’t think they will. If he’s having a solid first half next year, then think about pulling the trigger for better pitching or an impact MIF. But I think we need his bat and it’s a cheap one right now.
If we’re trading OFers, start with Skippy because he’s the most expendable for us, but would solidly fill a role for another team.
by spants on Oct 15, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
well played sir. bleeding ulcer isn’t something you see in men 30 and younger very often.
by spencegrif on Oct 15, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well at least he hasn't
come down with Ryan Ludwick’s Disease yet.
So there’s that…
by Red in Chicago on Oct 15, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
line drives
His line drive rate was 30 percent, which was four percent higher than any other full time player (David Wright) And his BAbip was still only .349. If you tack on the normal .12 uptick to LD% for an eBAbip, his line becomes a .344/.413/.648. Impact bat, anyone?
His career LD% looks to be right around 21-22% so I can’t imagine he’ll continue to hit line drives 30% of the time next year. If this season was back at his career rate his eBAbip would be somewhere around .330 giving him a .285/.347/.572 mark. Say he falls back to the 21% LD% and gets BAbip unlucky-we could still see a .270/.340/.530 outfielder.
It seems like we could expect anywhere from Carlos Delgado to Carlos Lee to Matt Holliday all for a fraction of the cost. Because of that, I just don’t see how we could trade Ryan Ludwick. This whole thing still seems a bit too good to be true. I hope he stays healthy so we can find out.
by sra on Oct 15, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+ everything on the table
Just looking at Luddy’s hitting mechanics compared to Ank’s it’s no contest. Short, compact, balanced, powerful. Ank’s power will deteriorate quickly whenever he starts to age.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 15, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks RB
i was thinking about asking last night if anyone could do a post like this. i really wanted to see what realistic value some of our trade chips have.
i agree that skip could bring something good back. he is a decent leadoff hitter that plays above average defense and is still cost controlled for a few more years. that’s pretty valuable in my estimation.
if we can get a good young player back in exchange for ank we should do that as well. i’ve been a proponent of trading him for a while now. maybe next year’s deadline is the best time to trade him considering he plays well. however, now that i think about it an outfield of ank, rasmus, and ludwick doesn’t sound too bad.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
by FutureMan on Oct 15, 2008 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If we're trading a young reliever.....
I’d rather move Perez than Motte.
After seeing them both this season, I think Motte has the higher upside.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 15, 2008 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm.
I can certainly see why someone would say that. Motte has a much better command of the strike zone, whereas Perez can occasionally just completely lose his release point.
Still, though, if I were to rate the upside for each, I personally would still say Perez has a better upside. He has more weapons, and I honestly think his stuff is a tick better than Motte’s, even with JM having the better velocity. The movement on Perez’s fastball is just ridiculous, and, honestly, probably the single biggest reason he has so much trouble keeping the ball in the zone.
Personally, I hope that both of them are right down there in the St. Louis bullpen next year.
Victory is sweet, even deep in the cheap seats.
by the red baron on Oct 15, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say they're about equal
Motte has a higher velocity and more control, Perez has more weapons…. if possible I’d like to keep both!
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mentioning keeping both made me think...
what level of player(s) could we get in return if we put them both on the trading block in a package deal???
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Oct 15, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree about Perez's stuff vs. Motte's
especially about the fastball. It begs the question though. Why hasnt he developed even a get-me-over breaking ball to get ahead so he can throw the fastball out of the zone? To me it seems similar to the problems Lidge had with his slider. It was a devastating pitch but he threw it out of the zone so often that hitters started taking and sitting on the fastball or taking their walks. Having a pitch like that requires getting ahead early.
by rlgosnell on Oct 15, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
degrees of cost control
Skippy has value in trade since he has at least 3 years of relative cost control remaining. He’s a solid OF vs RHP and can be used as a defensive replacement too, making him of value as a 3rd (particularly in CF say for the White Sox) or 4th OF. In 2008, he had 5 WSAB which if maintained (I think) projects him to be more valuable over the next 3 seasons than he’ll earn in 1year pre Arb and 2 years of Arb.
Thompson however is supposedly Arb eligible this offseason and that makes him of basically no value in trade. He had 0 WSAB in 2008. At league minimum he’s a useful enough piece for the BP — sort of a jack-of-all trades master of none type. A guy you can send out for an inning, then three days later ask to pitch 4 when the starter’s career implodes in the first. At $1M and/+ , not so much.
by vances law on Oct 15, 2008 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Skip and Perez
are the two that have the best chance to get dealt IMO, although it would pain me to part with YP. TLR will want a vet closer next season and Skip presents plenty of upside to his trade value. Like RB said, our sudden abundance of 3B prospects makes Glaus a potential chip, however none of these guys have had a looksie in the big leagues yet. I’d love to see Freese backing up Glaus and Albert to start next season, then if his production is to our liking, we could deal Santa to a team that needs his services at the deadline or All Star break, and get some decent prospects in return.
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Oct 15, 2008 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it's true that Glaus is a potential trade chip
but I just don’t see him being traded; I don’t think we get his value back since he will only be on a team for 1 season, not to mention his tradability is severely limited due to no trade clause, etc.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and like you said
it makes a lot of sense to have a Glaus/Freese tandem at 3B
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
He realistically has a low chance of being traded, I was just speculating as to what we could do with him since we have enough prospects to replace him. You never know, there could be a team out there next season that wants to make a late push and is willing to shell out for a talented rental player (ie: Yankees) I forgot about his no trade clause, plus he really likes it in STL, and once his power got going later in the season the fans began to enjoy his company more too.
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Oct 15, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why would the yankees want glaus they have A-Rod
Motorized coolers are sound investments.
by bearcatcardfan on Oct 15, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't saying the Yankees
would trade for Glaus…I was just using them as an example of teams that traditionally like to deal for big players close to deadlines. In any case he could play 1B for them, and the Yanks never let occupied positions get in their way. Acquired SS A-Rod when they already had All-Star SS Jeter? No problem! Now they have 3B All-Star and GG A-Rod!
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Oct 15, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe shift a-rod back over to short?
after they do something with jeter? wait, what am i thinking, derek jeter invented the yankees.
by mattybobo on Oct 15, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hell
move jeter to second if your shifting to the left!
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and then they send cano our way
our infield is set!
by mattybobo on Oct 15, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dont get the whole TLR wants a vet to close thing
I know he favors vets, but Waino closed the clinching games in the NLCS and this other thing called the World Series. McClellan was used in countless high leverage situations this year. Both were rookies. Maybe he just wants a closer that throws strikes?
by rlgosnell on Oct 15, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Circumstances were a bit different in 2006
Izzy got hurt late…and we threw Looper out there to close and he couldn’t get the job done. Wainwright got the role because the experienced reliever didn’t perform. And notice too how when we were having our closer issues this season people tossed K-Mac’s name out there and he never got a chance. By being a veteran closer you are most likely “proven” and can throw strikes since you have been able to maintain a job, and that’s the kind of closer TLR will most likely want.
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on Oct 15, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he wants a vet because..............
it’s a high leverage inning and larussa doesn’t want to have another “rick ankiel disaster”, as a pitcher, on his resume’.
he’s gunshy, of ruining another talented youngster, and being blamed for it.
if the vet is a disaster, it’s the vets fault (izzy), even if he is appearing at a pace he has never equaled in his career (2008).
by ball in play on Oct 15, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or
he actually views Perez as not ready, needs more consistency, and more seasoning at the major league level.
not disagreeing with your assesment here, just throwing out another possibility.
by Knighttime on Oct 15, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man - Skip does need a publicist
I’ve noticed several comments on this post about how Skip would make a good fourth, or maybe third outfielder. I pulled together the slash lines for the starting outfields (minus Manny) for the 4 NL playoff teams. Once you take away the names I think he’s starting in every one of these scenarios. I can only imagine how he’d look if I pulled the numbers for the non-playoff teams.
The only thing he doesn’t do is hit HRs, but how much does his defense make up for that??? I think we’re undervaluing his cost controlled performance. I can only hope that other GMs feel like I do.
Skip 302 359 424
280 344 532
256 369 568
257 359 379
250 367 507
293 352 447
273 363 498
285 335 553
243 331 477
268 300 459
283 327 328
290 340 459
305 375 510
20 Internet dollars for anyone that figures out the order of teams and players.
by birdo rojo on Oct 15, 2008 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
True.....
But to me, it lessons his value that he can’t hit lefties at all.
All things equal, I guess I’d rather have a platoon guy that hits righties better (b/c you face them more often), but it is a definite disadvantage having platoon guys in the lineup, and we sorta have two of them in the OF (not to mention that Lud hits righties better too), and that makes our current starting OF VERY susceptible to lefthanded pitching.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 15, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But everyone is focusing on what he can't do
Carlos Pena can’t hit lefties. Carl Crawford can’t really hit lefties etc. Just because you have to limit LHP at-bats doesn’t mean he isn’t very valuable.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 15, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish Skip couldn't hit lefties
like Carl Crawford can’t hit lefties:
CC v. LHP: .248/.293/.348/.641
SS v. LHP: .168/.238/.185/.423
What hurts Skip the most is that he is compared with LFs. Unless he could somehow manage to play a better CF than Ank and/or Rasmus he is stuck playing a slugger’s position.
According to b-r, Skip’s SLG was actually .406, not .424 and that puts him next to last in the twelve OFs listed above.
I would imagine other GMs are pretty aware of what he can’t do. Unless they see him as a CF, and they have a good platoon partner for him at CF, his trade value won’t be all that exciting.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Oct 15, 2008 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As they should be
But everyone is focusing on what he can’t do
Mainly because that’s part of the evaluation of a player that you may be trading or trading for. It’s just as important to look at limitations as it is to look at strengths. I was one who lobbied for him to lead off clear back in December of last year, and everyone laughed in my face. Now he’s put up a better year than even the most optimistic of us thought he would, but he still can’t hit a left hander to save his life. It wouldn’t be as big a negative if he didn’t play in the outfield, where teams can get players with big power numbers, something Skip doesn’t have.
He’s a good player, but would you trade a good prospect for him?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 16, 2008 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A good prospect?
Not necessarily. A blocked player with whom a team can upgrade their outfield, specifically one that has a suitable platoon partner already, cliche: Zobrist? I don’t see why not.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 16, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You just made my point for me -- Thanks!
specifically one that has a suitable platoon partner already
If we shouldn’t be talking about his weakness, then why would we have to limit our trade talks to a team that has a “suitable platoon partner”? Teams are going to evaluate him as a platoon player, so we should as well, which means talking about his deficiencies as a player.
If he was a left handed hitting second baseman that couldn’t hit lefties but tunes up righties he’d be a commodity, but he’s not.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 16, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And acting like he has no value is ridiculous
He can’t hit lefties. People act like that means he has absolutely no value and it’s utterly ridiculous. He was a 5 win player last year. There isn’t a single other 5 win outfielder that I can find who is available. He’s likely the most valuable outfielder on the market salary considered. But lets focus on that he can’t hit lefties!
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Oct 16, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying he doesn't have value
I’m saying that he’s coming off of a career year, barely slugged over .400, and plays a position, corner outfield, where most teams are looking to put sluggers, not guys who hit for high average with mediocre power.
That being said, he might be worth more to St. Louis than what he could bring on the trade market. He’s the perfect type of player for a TLR led ballclub: solid defensively at every outfield position, a good platoon outfielder and situational pinch hitter, scrapper who will do whatever it takes to help the ballclub win — including coming off of the bench and hitting anywhere in the lineup.
If you’re a team in the market for a left fielder, my guess is that you’re probably looking at Pat Burrell, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, and Milton Bradley before you’re looking at Skip Schumaker. All of those guys are free agents as well, so you don’t have to give up prospects for them. I think his value goes up as the big bats get signed, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Tampa make a run at Dunn to solve some of their problems since he can DH and play some outfield.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 16, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Using that argument you only increased his value compared to the first line listed
That’s Mr. Soriano who hasn’t hit a righty since July.
by birdo rojo on Oct 15, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also just to clarify
I’m a proponent of trading him, despite my perception of his high value. Given Mather, Barton Rasmus and others I think we can replace him. To me his value is higher to other teams and would hopefully be able to bring us something of significant value.
by birdo rojo on Oct 15, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my eyes
It all depends on what we do in the free agency period. I see the outfield being our strongest position(s), making it the best place to deal from. I think that if we can sign someone like Furcal, then we should try to deal Schu. Furcal would take the leadoff spot that Schu held, and then Rasmus could fill the 3rd outfield spot. I think it is important that Rasmus would be able to be slotted into the #2 spot so that he has Pujols behind him, forcing pitchers to throw him strikes. If we stick with Iz2 or get someone like Greene via trade, I honestly think that Ludwick makes more sense. We would likely still need a proven lead-off hitter, which is why keeping Skip makes more sense in this instance. Plus, after an MVP-esque season, we could get good pieces in return for Luddy and still allow our good piece (Rasmus) a spot in our line-up. I’m sure this will be highly debated, but it is nice to see that we do have some depth on our team. Hopefully, our depth will turn into filling the holes on our team…
by Pujols Is A God on Oct 15, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I might be wrong
but I’ve always thought of Furcal as more of a slugging guy than an OBP guy, thus making him not perfect for leadoff… but then again, we bat the pitcher 8th so all bets are off
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup
and thinking like that cost the Dodgers manager his job after the 2007 season. Soriano isn’t your prototypical leadoff hitter either, but everytime someone drops him in a different spot in the lineup his numbers go down.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you saying that Furcal thrives in the leadoff spot
or that he actually does have a high OBP?
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He thrives in the leadoff spot
go to b-ref and look at his numbers from last year batting in the 2 hole. They were miserable.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 16, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, a Tom Waits reference.
Very nice.
by davethebutcher on Oct 15, 2008 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I missed it!
Tom Waits is the coolest
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 15, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was amused thinking of the next line:
“and the first one’s always free.”
If you look down and see that Adam Kennedy is the first “bullet” listed, I think it makes the post funnier.
Not sure if it was intentional, but take credit for it anyway, RB.
by tom s. on Oct 16, 2008 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cards sign lefty reliever Manning.
See more in the catch all hot stove thread.
by stlfan on Oct 15, 2008 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Boy, that'll put some coal in your stove!
Get me a hot chocolate or something.
by Red in Chicago on Oct 15, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My preferences
I’d like to deal an outfielder to address weakness in the MI, or to add a starter.
Assuming Schumaker has equal value with Ankiel in the eyes of others (because of 3 years of cost control), he’d be first on my list. I don’t have anything against him, but there is redundancy with lefthandedness in the outfield. Also, it may be hard for him to hold a spot here for 3 years anyway. If what we saw this year is what he is though, and I think it’s a pretty close representation, he’ll be an upgrade for a lot of teams and, again, he’ll be cheap.
I’m not opposed to dealing Ankiel either for a lot of the same reasons. Obviously his payday is coming soon, and I’m currently leaning against paying it (though I could see scenarios that would change my mind on that). So if you can get a return that will exceed the draft picks you get, or what you think you could get over the summer it’s worth considering. The fan fallout may be real though, and it’ll be a consideration. TLR’s loyalty will too, but then again he’s not making any committments after next year, as far as I know. So that should be about 101 on the list of considerations as far as I am concerned. Mo’s the one who has to live with his decisions long term.
Ludwick, I am very much against trading. The return you’d have to get for him would have to be enormous. The sell high approach I normally appreciate, but here’s some other considerations. Ludwick is exactly the type of asset that separates decent teams from really good ones, at least if you aren’t in an unlimited payroll market. He’s up there in years, but he is exactly the thing that makes prospects so appealling and you get to add the polish and poise of someone that’s been through the grind on top of it. You are getting star production for rookies salary, and getting it for years. Sure this season may not be repeatable, but say he hits .270/.350/.480 even….at the cost you’re paying him it will be an ok investment. Little downside risk (except injury), and a ton of upside – the likes of which you can not find elsewhere. So why trade him for someone that you hope turns out just like him?
I just don’t think Duncan has a market now, so going to move on.
Ditto Kennedy, if you can get someone to take some of his salary as a throw in then I’m happy about that.
Glaus may not repeat this season, but I don’t care, I don’t really want to trade him. I don’t think he is blocking anyone really. In fact I think he is a perfect bridge to whoever emerges in the minors, probably Wallace if he can stick at 3rd.
I just don’t see the point of dealing Perez. Much like his attachment to Ankiel, Tony’s thoughts on the matter shouldn’t count for that much. This is Mo’s call, and unless you can get a windfall for him I don’t do it. They apparently want to get a veteran in here to close. I can understand why, though I do not want them to sink all this payroll flexibility we finally have to do it. Even if that is exactly what they do (sign K-Rod or something), we still need to get big outs in the 6th, 7th, and 8th. I don’t see where we are in any position to move out the guys we have that are capable of that, and that certainly includes Perez. I wanted Motte up in STL earlier badly, because I felt he could have helped this sorry group and wanted to see if it was true. Now he did show well, but it was just a handful of innings. The jury is still out. We should keep both here next year, even if it is not for the 9th. They want a proven closer? Fine. The most important outs are often in the 7th and 8th anyway.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 15, 2008 7:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry about the wordiness
I have to keep myself in check apparently. Didn’t realize I went on a full fledged rant until I hit “Post”.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 15, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well said
On the Troy Glaus topic, I’m intereted in your thoughts on Freese and Craig. Do you see either one getting playing time in St. Louis in 2009? Additionally, with the potential of Wallace sticking at 3B – do you forsee Freese or Craig having the ability to develop into a Scott Spezio type utility player i.e. one who can backup 3B, 1B, as well as LF?
by Knighttime on Oct 15, 2008 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Certainly not an expert
I’ve seen Craig once. Haven’t seen Freese. I mainly count on the guys at Future Redbirds, and Goold, for reports.
I think generally speaking that a 3B would be capable of making the move to the corners, as long as they have a little foot speed. Craig, in particular, I think could do it with a little work. In fact he got a little time in the OF this year, but not sure how he did. He seems pretty athletic to me. I’m not sure one way or the other on Freese. I’d suspect that either of them would have to hit out of their minds in spring to get that role in the bigs at the start of the season. I just don’t think they’ll make a spot for either on at the start. If I had to guess, I think Craig may be taking on that kind of role in AAA to start the season though. Either could be up at one point or another, though I could also see one being a part of a trade too.
Azru or Erik probably has a better formed opinion on that question, if they are lurking.
by Merry CRasmus on Oct 16, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if Freese doesn't get playing time next season
they really need to trade him. now.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 16, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel and his pending free agency
One item relating to Ankiel and free agency that is not brought up much is Ankiel’s mental makeup. His past trials and tribulations would, IMO, rule out several high pressure cities from his potential free agent market. I could not envision Rick playing in Philly, NYC or Boston. On the other hand, LA might fit, but Rick is a Florida boy. If you start eliminating some clubs because of the media market in where they play, then the free agent windfall possibility decreases.
One possibility is a club friendly extension. Rick would have to drive this with Boras, but I could see it happening based on Rick trying to find security both financially and psychologically. This could give us an everyday OF of Ludwick/Rasmus/Ankiel for the next few years. I could live with that.
by ubeddie on Oct 15, 2008 9:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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