Just the Right Bullets: the Majors
So far this offseason, we've all tossed out our very favourite trade targets on a pretty much daily basis, hashing and then rehashing the details of every deal that could possibly bring us that personal hobby horse we so dearly wish to have. And why not? It's our right as fans, damnit! There aren't any games going on (at least not for our boys in red), so we might as well talk about what could be for next season, right?
But what about the other side of the equation? We all know just which player- or players- that we would like to see the Cardinals pick up, but we rarely focus on the guys going the other way. The bullets, so to speak, that make the deal happen. Really, if you want to come up with a deal that just may actually work, it's probably best to start with your own side, rather than looking at who you want. Figure out how much value you yourself have, and go from there.
So, with that in mind, let's treat some human beings like chattel, shall we? It doesn't have to be a comprehensive examination, of course. I thought that, to start at least, we'll take a look just at what the Cards already have at the big league level. Call it a bird in the hand situation. I think that most of us know who the trade chips are. Now let's see just how good a chips they are.
Adam Kennedy- Hey, I figured we would start out right at the top. The top, of course, as in the top of most fans' wish lists to be moved this offseason.
I have to say, at this point, I think that Adam Kennedy has pretty negligible trade value. He is still a very, very good defensive second baseman; most of the defensive metrics had him amongst the very best at the position in 2008. It appears that at least some of his problems in 2007 were caused largely by his knee malady, and he looks to be healthy again. Unfortunately, Kennedy's bat apparently didn't get the memo that his knee was supposed to contain some sort of miraculous fountain of youth chemical that would begin pouring out the second it was operated on, because it has just refused to come back out of hiding. He did hit better in '08 than in '07, thankfully, but that's a lot like saying that getting punched in the crotch is quite a lot better than getting kicked in the crotch. Either way, it just isn't all that much fun.
Bottom line, any team that agrees to take on Kennedy's salary, even for a single season, simply isn't going to give the Cardinals much in return. He's a pure salary dump player, useful really only as part of a package deal, I think.
Skip Schumaker- Yeah, I know he's a fan favourite, as well as a manager favourite. Still, when it comes right down to it, Skippy is replaceable.
Now, that's not to say he doesn't have some real value. He's a very strong defender, and doesn't fit too badly at the top of a lineup. His plate discipline came a long way this season, and he still makes good contact. He even showed a modicum of pop at times. He's still relatively cheap, so that certainly helps. As one of our posters states so very eloquently in his signature, Skip and Kosuke Fukudome are roughly equivalent players, and the Cobbler isn't going to cost you eleven million a year.
I have to say, I'm sort of hoping to see Skip get moved this winter. I think he has pretty good value on the market, while the Cardinals have options internally that I think would be much better in the long run. I like Skip, don't think for a second that I don't, but he's really a pretty damned good trade chip.
Troy Glaus- Glaus is a bit of a left field trade piece, I know, but still a valid one, I think. He's under contract for the 2009 season, having exercised his option when he was dealt to the Cards last offseason. Given the numbers he put up this past season, Glaus would be quite a deal for anyone looking to add some serious pop at the hot corner.
The problem with Glaus, of course, is that he has a complete no trade clause that he would have to waive before any deal could actually get done. He seems quite happy here in St. Louis, and I'm sure would require a pretty substantial inducement to waive the clause. I would think that he would probably be interested in playing on the west coast only, and any team looking to get him would probably need to offer him at least a three year extension. Unfortunately, that limits his trade value fairly significantly. Still, a guy with his numbers and pedigree might still be able to bring a pretty penny on the open market, and the Cards are suddenly awash in third base prospects who are at least relatively near the show.
Ryan Ludwick- Oy. This one is tough to suggest, to be perfectly honest. There's no way you give up a guy who puts up the type of numbers that Ludwick is capable of, right? Well, there are certainly reasons to at least consider it.
First off, Luddy has a pretty extensive injury history. I know, it seems a little callous to consider trading a guy because he's had trouble staying healthy, but that is the situation. He's had two healthy seasons in a row, after many, many years of near-constant time spent on the DL. Can he keep himself in one piece for a third year in a row?
Second, while the numbers Luddy put up this year were certainly impressive, you also have to be cautious about putting too very much weight on them. As much of a question as his health is, you absolutely have to have the exact same concerns about how real this level of production is.
So what you have here is a player right around thirty years old, with one pretty good and one outstanding year under his belt. He's still cost controlled, as his service time is only in the two year range, so that does help his value. Still, you have to question just how much a team is going to be willing to gamble on Luddy being reality, rather than just a one year wonder.
Rick Ankiel- Another tough one. The kid's been with the organisation forever, so there's obviously some serious emotional ties between he and the team, not to mention the fans. I have to think that Mozeliak would be, at the least, hesitant to move Rick.
On the upside, Ankiel is ridiculously talented, in almost every facet of the game. He's got power to spare, showed the ability to hit for at least a fair average, and can play the outfield quite well. He's probably better suited for right field than center, but he's quite adequate either place. The arm, of course, doesn't hurt matters any, as runners have to be on the lookout for him tossing them out anywhere, at any time.
On the downside, Ankiel is almost thirty himself, has a pretty extensive injury history, and still doesn't really have a whole lot in the way of plate discipline. His track record is very limited, yet he's also close to free agency. A team looking to pick up Rick would essentially be getting only one year of cost controlled performance, thus driving his value down. Overall, all the caveats with Ludwick apply to Ankiel too, only moreso. He has some value, certainly, if only because of his talent, but Rick Ankiel just isn't as good a commodity as many seem to believe.
Chris Duncan- This one, honestly, is probably a non-starter from the get go. Duncan just had pretty radical surgery on his neck; the sort of surgery, in fact, that doesn't really have any kind of precedent for an athlete coming back from. He has about two thirds of a good season, to be honest, he can't play the outfield, and that's pretty much all there is to say about that.
Chris may come back in 2009 and turn himself back into the valuable commodity he was after the 2006 season. Then again, he may not. Either way, he's not getting moved this offseason, and has really no value even if he were.
Chris Perez- Now here's an intriguing fellow. We all know of Perez's limitations, and we've seen just what he can do all the same. You want a player that could net you something serious on the trade market, brother, this is it.
What we have here is a young, cost controlled, close to closer ready pitcher with very little injury history and an absolutely electric arm. He does have some pesky issues with his control, of course, but when he's on, he's unhittable already, and he's just a baby. The sky is the limit with Perez; of course, that's also probably the reason you would hope not to move a guy like him.
Bottom line, Perez is probably the Cards' best trade chip at the major league level. (And yes, I consider him a major league pitcher, no matter what La Russa might say about the plans for him next year.) He is the most valuable to the Cardinals, but also the most valuable to most other teams as well. If you're looking to bring in a guy like, say, a Brandon Wood or the like, Perez is likely the sort of player you'll end up having to use to get it done.
Come to think of it, while watching the Rays in the postseason, one can't help but notice that they're using Dan Wheeler, and not the good Wheeler, to be honest, to try and close out games. While the name Zobrist is getting thrown around a lot 'round these parts, I think Perez is worth more than that. The Rays do, of course, just happen to have a guy, plays shortstop, down in the minors. Name of Brignac, I believe...
And really, that's about it. Guys like Thompson and Pineiro, I honestly don't think they have a whole lot of value. Pineiro is waaayy too expensive for what you get, and Thompson just isn't worth much on the market. I could be wrong about Puppy Kicker, at least, but I don't think I am. I still consider Mather a minor leaguer, as his time here was very, very limited. So, to be honest, those are probably the best bullets that the Cards have to deal with this offseason. Most of the other players I could bring up are, in one way or another, much more necessary to the team. As much as I like Bryan Anderson, I'd be awfully leery of dealing Yadier Molina. The middle infielders are all free agents or named Aaron Miles.
So that's the crop. What do you guys think?
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Skip's always a possibility
he’s probably the most replaceable player on the team. We’re relatively deep in the OF, and Skip appears to be only a platoon player, given his awful splits vs. lefties.
Perez — though I’d like to keep him, I also would like him to close though I could go w/ him as a setup man provided we don’t spend lot of $ or lots of prospects acquiring a closer. However, if Tony isn’t committed to him — and won’t be for the forseeable future — he surely has as much trade value as anybody on the active roster. It would seem to me that a trade package to acquire a good young SS could be built around Perez.
The other one is Ankiel. The Cards should definitely consider trading Rick if they can acquire a good, young player for him — either an SP, a closer, or a SS. Ankiel’s 30 next year and will be a free agent in 1 year. He’s also replaceable w/ Rasmus and, as a free agent, will likely be lost after the season anyway. His trade value could be pretty high.
I know that there’s a contingent of Cards’ fans who assume the Cards will resign him at the end of the season but I’ve got my doubts. He’ll earn a lot of $ on the open market, has Boras for an agent (which means he’s looking to get paid), and it’ll be his one and only chance to hit the jackpot. Even if we could sign him after next season, I’m not convinced it would be a good idea. Would we have signed Torii Hunter to the contract he got from the Angels. A good season from Ankiel would mean he’s liable to receive a Torii Hunter-like contract.
by chuckb on Oct 15, 2008 12:02 PM EDT 0 recs
I think I prefer...
to try and let Ankiel improve his value in the first half.
Next year is TLR and DD’s last season here most likely, and I think we’re going to GO FOR IT. With Rick’s back problems and such I think he might be able to raise his value with a healthy first half in 2009. Hopefully in the same time Rasmus is transitioning nicely into a big league CFer. If I’m right Rick could bring back a pretty serious haul in July (while not hurting the team – Rasmus, Ludwick, Mather). Someone(s) has to go in the OF, be it Skip, Mather, or Rick. I prefer Skip in the offseason, as (like you said) he is the most replaceable, and his value is probably at its peak and moving Rick during the year.
Mather has more value I think than RB is giving him credit for. He is probably pretty close to on par with Skip in value, as he has legitimate 30 HR potential, doesn’t have a terrible split, gets on base, and plays solid defense – he also should have one less season of service time. I also feel he has more value to the Cards than Skip does.
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 15, 2008 12:21 PM EDT
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Actually,
I didn’t say Mather doesn’t have value, I simply look at him more as being still a minor leaguer. I left out Motte for the same reason. I’ll be looking at some of those guys in the future.
Victory is sweet, even deep in the cheap seats.
by the red baron on
Oct 15, 2008 12:23 PM EDT
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MLB...
considers Mather a major leaguer…his rookie status is not intact.
I apologize for misremembering what I read.
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 15, 2008 12:43 PM EDT
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Huh.
You’re right, he isn’t a rookie anymore. That’s weird. I had no idea he had so many at bats. He still feels like an unproven commodity to me as compared to a guy like, say, Perez. With Perez, it feels like we saw enough of him that you can pretty much see what kind of a player he’s going to be. Mather, though, it seemed like we saw just enough to be intrigued, but I certainly didn’t think he was a totally finished product, by any means.
I guess I should have included him here. You know, I really should start actually researching things, rather than just sitting down and typing things pretty much straight out of memory.
Victory is sweet, even deep in the cheap seats.
by the red baron on
Oct 15, 2008 2:07 PM EDT
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He showed flashes of being really good to me
Our perception I guess of his dev curve is about the same, he’s not nearly as “proven” to me as Perez—-but with a normal BABIP his major league line would be .270/.325/.500, which matches up decently with his MLE of .258/.359/.498, and it seems he has the athleticism/frame to go much higher…
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on
Oct 15, 2008 2:15 PM EDT
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Optimism on Mather
Don’t know about the whole injury thing, but:
Mather ’08 .241/.306/.474
Luddy ’07 .267/.339/.479
Oh, and BTW RB, don’t trade Luddy.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on
Oct 15, 2008 2:48 PM EDT
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I agree...
in that I’m still not sure what to expect from Mather, and I doubt that many other clubs really have much of an idea who he is…thus limiting his trade value.
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 15, 2008 2:56 PM EDT
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Trading Ankiel
who is often injured, 30, and nearly a free agent seems like a good idea to me. However, from an organizational standpoint, that just wouldn’t be good business in terms of “putting asses in seats.” Ankiel is one of the handful of guys that gets everyone out to the park, sells T-shirts, etc. I just can’t see them trading him this soon after his huge comeback to the Show.
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on
Oct 15, 2008 1:32 PM EDT
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STL doesn't have a problem.....
Getting butts in the seats, or selling merchandise.
We still have Albert, Ludwick, Yadi, Waino, and some others that do just that.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on
Oct 15, 2008 2:03 PM EDT
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pegged that about right
I hate to admit it, but as much as some of us are attached to Roy, we’ll get over it just as we did watching So Taguchi, Rolen, Edmonds, and others go. And the more success we have, the sooner we forget (ref. Simmons, Ted).
by random on
Oct 15, 2008 2:21 PM EDT
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on the same token
I wouldn’t mind seeing him stay. laser beams from the outfield are nice.
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 15, 2008 2:54 PM EDT
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i would
pay good money to watch so taguchi leave over and over again
by spencegrif on
Oct 15, 2008 5:25 PM EDT
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Simple Fact
Boras almost ALWAYS takes his clients to the Free Agency market. That is why they sign with Boras. He handles the negotiations for them. I know Lohse didn’t go to FA this year but this is because Boras failed him last year.
Rick Ankiel is so gone and can almost promise you he will not be a Cardinal in 2010. The question is do you hope that you might get a draft pick for him or trade him now for something better. I just don’t see him getting moved mid season for anyone.
by FlimtotheFlam on
Oct 15, 2008 6:25 PM EDT
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ankiel signed with boras
in 1997, though. He didn’t just recently fire Bob Smith (the fictitious agent known for giving hometown discounts) and hire the Evil One.
But if we could trade Ankiel for Cano or peralta or uggla, etc, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 15, 2008 9:54 PM EDT
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STL hasn't had problems in the past
and I don’t necessarily expect them to in the future. I’m just saying that Ankiel has to be one of the biggest fan favorites. I would say top 3 with AP and Molina if I had to guess, noting that Wainwright is only out there 1/5 days. With the current economic issues, I think that baseball and sports in general can’t take attendance for granted. People are going to be much more conservative with their money these days. Also, about the selling merchandise, I didn’t say the Cards had a problem. I said people buy Ankiel stuff. Unless you have a player come in who compares in popularity with Rick Ankiel, sales will dip if you lose him. Pretty simple business.
All that said, I’m certainly not against trading Ankiel, I’m just explaining why I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on
Oct 15, 2008 6:07 PM EDT
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+1
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on
Oct 15, 2008 11:40 PM EDT
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u can't put butts in the seats if he doesn't play...and Ankiel is bound for an injury soon
'That's something we do...thirteen hits and not score'-Terrence Long
by DyeLongJustice on
Oct 15, 2008 11:40 PM EDT
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That seems like
an irrational reason to trade him. “He won’t get people to come out to the park because he won’t be playing.” See my reply to Soonerfan
Is it fraud when Cubs ownership says "this year is our year?" Can somebody sue for that?
by thegodfather on
Oct 16, 2008 4:07 PM EDT
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I think you hit on.....
all the pertinant facts. I don’t think Glaus is really an option to be moved, for a couple of reasons. First, I don’t think we have a replacement that will approach his production next year. Second, I don’t see Glaus wanting to go anywhere else. And third, I really like the idea of letting him walk next year and possibly getting some draft picks out of the deal.
As for who I would trade? It’s dependent on what kind of deals we can make, and what management really thinks of Rasmus and Perez, especially in regards to next season. I’d like to see us move Ankiel and maybe Perez. Go with an OF of Ludwick, Skip/Barton/Mather, and Rasmus. I’d like to see us land Furcal, but I don’t know that that is going to happen, so we might be forced to trade for a SS, which isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Hopefully we can dump AK off somewhere. I’m pretty much counting on Lopez being the 2B, and Miles being the MI off the bench.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Oct 15, 2008 12:12 PM EDT 0 recs
The whole issue isn't who we would trade--
as you allude to—it’s for whom we would trade. Trade Ryan Ludwick? Okay, maybe for Tulowitzski or Hanley Ramirez. But for, I dunno, Dan Uggla? I don’t think so. Likewise with Perez, Ankiel and Rasmus. These are guys who give you significant MLB capability now. You can’t just give them and their OPS to someone else without replacing them. The holes, as everyone knows are in the middle infield. So what are talking about here? If we aren’t getting back a slugging shortstop or a left fielder with serious power, we’re not really upgrading the team. You want to trade a bunch of these guys? Sure, for Roy Halladay…
Value for value. We’re only talking about one side of the equation. I’m not sure what the point of doing that is. Pretty much everyone on the team except Pujols could be traded under the right deal.
by Red in Chicago on
Oct 15, 2008 2:07 PM EDT
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if we could get a good Young Shortstop for Young Pitcher...
it would be worth a trade otherwise i would keep Perez. i would do Wood, Brignac and maybe Zorbrist but the latter scares me on defense and i cant seem to get over that. Although i must admit i haven’t given up on Kozma, yet, but at the very least it will be 2011 before he is ready.
I agree with “The Artist Formally Known as HC” re: Ankiel… im not sold we will resign him and there is no way he should be off limits. if your name isn’t Pujols, ADAM, or Yadi you are fair game…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Oct 15, 2008 12:24 PM EDT 0 recs
Zobrist..
I wonder how playing on that fast carpet hurts his defensive numbers?
Besides Zobrist will be 28 next year. I would not trade Chris Perez for Zobrist.
I know you said maybe, but I don’t think I would make that deal. I would trade Perez for a younger version of Zobrist maybe.
by ICbirdfan on
Oct 15, 2008 12:53 PM EDT
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youre right
the more i think about it there would have to be other pieces involved…although you cant look at Zobrist’s on-base skills and not be impressed…i think the carpet is a trade off. it is a lot faster but it plays a lot truer too…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on
Oct 15, 2008 1:34 PM EDT
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Yes his OBP skills look pretty good at the Minor League level......
Honestly Jason Bartlette is probably better than Zobrist once you factor in defense at the MLB level though.
I would not trade Perez for Jason Bartlette……..
Zobrist is the type of guy you trade a Joe Mather for maybe. The Cards are deep at RH relief pitching but Perez has more upside than Zobrist does, even though Zobrist plays a more important position.
by ICbirdfan on
Oct 15, 2008 2:45 PM EDT
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like i said it would have to include more than just YP for Z but
i dont think Bartlett is as good as Zobrist obviously the Rays do and they are smarter than me but in 2007 OPS+: Zobrist =123 Bartlett=85 +/-: Zobrist= -8 Bartlett= -1. Now Z did have fewer chances and fewer PA but at worst they were even this year and Z is younger…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on
Oct 15, 2008 2:57 PM EDT
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It's just damb tough to find a SS that's for sure............
I am very interested to see what STL does about the SS issue for sure.
Remember how many people wanted HU last year.. Wow he was awful for LA.
by ICbirdfan on
Oct 15, 2008 3:05 PM EDT
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I still want him.
One bad year offensively at age 23 does not end a career for a guy with GG ability at SS.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 15, 2008 9:59 PM EDT
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good point about the turf
also, the turf/dirt interface causes some tough hops, according to one of the idiot announcers talking during the baseball game the other night. So the “plays true” bit might not be correct, esp compared to ubermanicured mlb infields elsewhere.
For reference, Bartlett went from 13 in ’06 and +18 in ’07 (21ish both years, when scaled for 1450 innings played) in MIN to -1 in tampa bay in ’08. Brendan Harris improved going the other way (TBR to MIN), as well. So there could be real meat to this argument.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 15, 2008 10:10 PM EDT
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Troy Glaus
moving to grass seemed to help Glaus this year too. maybe he had a healthy knee, maybe Oquendo helped him, maybe it was getting off the turf – either way I’m not sure anyone expected him to compete for a Gold Glove this year.
by Knighttime on
Oct 15, 2008 10:22 PM EDT
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young pitcher
the weird thing about perez is that if we got rid of him, we’d be in the market for a veteran closer….yet even with him, we’re in the market for a veteran closer. I’m not sure if that’s an argument for trading him or for Mo to show that restraint in the free agent market is the better part of valor.
by spencegrif on
Oct 15, 2008 1:35 PM EDT
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Peavey + Greene
Over on ole’ ESPN Buster Olney mentions in his video blog that the Padres might move Khalil greene and Jake Peavy together. He cites the Cardinals as obvious suitors. What would the Redbirds have to give up for a tandem like that, and would they even want it?
by eephuspieces on Oct 15, 2008 12:25 PM EDT 0 recs
Hot Stove threads and Trading Rasmus Fanposts
There’s plenty of discussion over there about this topic. No need to start one here.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Oct 15, 2008 12:34 PM EDT
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why not?
Red Baron asked what we thought about trades. He is staying on topic to a pretty decent extent.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
Oct 15, 2008 2:39 PM EDT
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I'm not being the post police here
I just thought that if he hadn’t been there yet that he’d get nearly everything he’s looking for on those threads rather than having to sift through this thread to get it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Oct 15, 2008 3:07 PM EDT
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Interesting...
….the udder bit of news out of Padre-land is that they are close to an extension with Trevor Huffman, so we may not need to give up Perez in a deal like this. I think Anderson/Rasmus/Boggs and maybe Nick Stanny gets it done; the only way we don’t give up Rasmus is if we offer something like Anderson/Ludwick/Boggs and Mather, which I think is too much. That would give us a top of the rotation starter for 4-5 years and a starting SS, and would save us precious moolah for the bullpen.
:=8)
by The MooCow on
Oct 15, 2008 12:54 PM EDT
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Drat....
…that of course would be Trevor Hoffman. Darn hooves…
:=8/
by The MooCow on
Oct 15, 2008 4:20 PM EDT
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trevor hoofman? cowlil greene?
come on moocow, you’re missing a golden opportunities here.
by mattybobo on
Oct 15, 2008 5:28 PM EDT
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I think I figured you out, MooCow
You work for Chick-fil-A
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on
Oct 17, 2008 9:50 AM EDT
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Might as well
Just sign CC than trade for Peavy. With Peavy you have to pay him around $15 million a year for the next couple years AND give up 3 Solid prospects that our cost controlled. With CC you just have to give up a draft pick and around $20 million. 3 Prospects> $5 mil a year plus 1st round draft pick.
In the end I don’t want to see them sign Peavy or CC.
by FlimtotheFlam on
Oct 15, 2008 2:40 PM EDT
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Let's Just...
….skip ’09 and go right to 2010 so we can see Pujols and Brett Wallace hitting back to back!!!!
:=8D
by The MooCow on
Oct 15, 2008 4:32 PM EDT
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in addition to your post
Santana is getting $23M a year for 6 years and a $25M option for the 7th. I would guess that is about what CC is going to get too.
Mets gave up four prospects for Santana – 3 of them pitchers.
Makes your argument 4 prospects>$8M a year plus a 1st round pick.
by Knighttime on
Oct 15, 2008 4:43 PM EDT
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Ankiel
His situation with the Cardinals this offseason reminds me a little bit of Josh Hamilton’s situation with the Reds a couple of years ago. The Reds had taken a flier on Hamilton by trading for him when the Cubs took him in the Rule 5 draft, full well knowing that they had a stud CF prospect in the minors in Jay Bruce. Hamilton came up in the middle of the season and turned in a year very similar to the year that Ankiel turned in in 2008 while being banged up occasionally, as Rick was this year. The Reds were able to deal Hamilton to the Rangers after the 2007 season and got Edinson Volquez back, who is one of the best young pitchers around.
That’s my quandry: If you’re able to make a trade for a pitcher similar to Volquez (i.e. fairly untested at the big league level,and there are some out there: Philip Hughes, Nick Adenhart, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Phil Humber, etc.) do you deal Ankiel for him straight up? I know some of the things don’t line up, contract situation, the fact that Hamilton was a former #1 pick and by all rights a fantastic hitter at one time, and Hamilton is still a bit younger than Ankiel.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Oct 15, 2008 12:32 PM EDT 0 recs
i would trade Ank
for any of those guys but i dont see it happening especially straight up. that is the idea of trading; take from a surplus (outfield) and trade for a weakness (starting pitching)
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on
Oct 15, 2008 12:43 PM EDT
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who's going to want to take Ankiel for 1 season?
it will seriously degrade his trade value. I do like the idea of trading him mid-season though to a team looking for more power to get into the playoffs
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 15, 2008 12:52 PM EDT
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thank you, red baron
for bringing some of the trade talk back to reality. Skip is probably the one I’d like to see traded. I’d prefer to get bullpen help in return. Skip for Zobrist was discussed in an earlier post, but since then I’ve seen some research on Zobrist’s defense and I’d pass on that deal. Ankiel has too high a ceiling to let go. Although he’s 30 he only has two seasons as a hitter and he is a fast learner. His plate discipline will improve and he’ll stop getting himself out. He’s seen less than two years of major league pitching. When he forces the pitchers to get him out he’ll resemble Albert, and it’ll be from the left side.
None of the outfielders has to be moved however, if they want to trade Rasmus. I can’t get a read on what they think of him anymore. I know he’s a topic for a later post, but it seems to me all their offseason moves are predicated on what they plan to do with him.
by vinniefromjersey on Oct 15, 2008 12:34 PM EDT 0 recs
I have some issues with your opinions vis a vis Ankiel
His plate discipline will improve and he’ll stop getting himself out. He’s seen less than two years of major league pitching
Most guys improve plate discipline overall during their career, but Ankiel always seems to revert to his free swinging self in certain situations (especially late and close), and he’s not all that adept at fouling off pitches. He’s also fooled by hard breaking stuff fairly easily, and guys like that don’t generally grow out of it (ask Alfonso Soriano or Richie Sexson). As for the second part, this could be a help and also a hindrance. The more AB’s he has, the more scouts get a book on him and the more pitchers figure out how to pitch him. He may become a better hitter, but he’ll also probably see fewer balls that he’s going to hammer 80% of the time as well.
When he forces the pitchers to get him out he’ll resemble Albert, and it’ll be from the left side.
Your first quote was like glass half full stuff — this quote is like glass overflowing with holy water. :-) I think his high upside is similar to Jim Edmonds: Good outfield defense, lots of strikeouts, decent on base ability, and will have slumps where he’s absolutely atrocious. That said, that is far, FAR short of being “Albert from the left side” — in the last half century there’s only a couple of guys that could put up those type of numbers, and Ankiel will never be that type of player.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Oct 15, 2008 12:46 PM EDT
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didn't he have a
12 pitch AB this season and several other long ones? Time will tell.
by vinniefromjersey on
Oct 15, 2008 1:13 PM EDT
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He had an 17 pitch AB early on
in the season against Villenueva that drew a walk, but I still agree with fourstick. Ank has the potential to be great, but left handed resemblance of Albert is dreaming.
Ryan Howard: one of the most Statistically Outstanding players of all time
by RunninRedbird on
Oct 15, 2008 2:13 PM EDT
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you remember that one
I remember a various amount of 3 and 4 pitch AB’s in the late innings where a little patience goes a long way — flailing at breaking balls out of the strike zone by 2 feet is not going to build consistency at getting on base
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Oct 15, 2008 2:51 PM EDT
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Excellent point on Ank
I love him, but his high leverage (.691 OPS) and late’n’close (.420 OPS) were abysmal. I don’t know how optimistic I can be on that improving dramatically.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on
Oct 15, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
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Jim Edmonds had great on-base skills
and is a borderline HOF’er and would be a sure thing if he got to play in the majors before age 23. i dont think Ankiel upside is that high. Ankiel probably has more raw power and a stronger (but not as accurate) arm but that is about it. and youre right he is definitely no Albert from the left side…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on
Oct 15, 2008 1:44 PM EDT
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i'm not so sure about that
edmonds had a 62 OPS+ at 23 and an 82 OPS+ at age 24. If he had been brought up earlier, it probably would have hurt his HOF chances, not helped them.\
He is definitely not Albert, but if he could be the second coming of Jimmy, that would be a pretty good thing.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 15, 2008 10:16 PM EDT
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Edmonds isn't being held back by numbers like OPS+
Remember this is a large collection of generally ill-informed people voting for this award. The lack of 400 HRs is a huge issue in their minds. A few extra seasons may have pushed that number over the arbitrary dividing line.
by azruavatar on
Oct 15, 2008 10:28 PM EDT
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good point
he’ll have at least one more year to try to get to 400, though. Someone will give him a shot for 2009.
He actually wouldn’t be a bad match for NYY.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 15, 2008 10:34 PM EDT
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Cubbies might
unless they fix that hole in the winter, Felix Pie is probably not their answer at CF. it’s possible they bring Jimmy back for another year.
by Knighttime on
Oct 15, 2008 10:37 PM EDT
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Jim Edmonds was a better player than Pujols in '02 and '04...
I’ll bet a dollar Ankiel will never put up .301 .418 .643.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on
Oct 15, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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301 418 643
i’d love to believe that but I don’t. For better or worse, TLR has adopted Rick Ankiel. The man’s prejudices work in both directions (both for and against). If we ink Ankiel to a LT deal, I don’t see any reason to keep Rasmus. Might as well sell him to the highest bidder.
by jjray on
Oct 15, 2008 2:09 PM EDT
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Not necessarily
They would make an incredible tandem in CF and RF. You could put anyone in left. Even Chris Duncan.
by Red in Chicago on
Oct 15, 2008 2:11 PM EDT
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Getting awfully..
LH’d in the OF there don’t you think. I think Ank, Ludwick and Rasmus could play in the same OF with Mather and Barton as reserves…that would be one STRONG OF rotation.
In a perfect world Chris Duncan goes on a tear this Spring and we can flip him for something useful.
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 15, 2008 3:01 PM EDT
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Agree
I was trying to come up with the worst-fielding name I could think of. Maybe I should have said Felipe Lopez?
by Red in Chicago on
Oct 15, 2008 3:13 PM EDT
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Rasmus and Ank in the OF
Let’s assume Luddy has earned an OF spot based on 2008 performance. Ank and Rasmus start means Skip and Duncan sit. That makes all the sense in the world to any of us not named LaRussa but there is no chance in hell that Rasmus starts ahead of Skip and Duncan in 2009 unless Skip is traded and Duncan is physically unable to play. In fact, I’ll go further and say Rasmus has next to zero chance of making the opening day roster in 2009 with TLR as coach. Failure to get a September callup spoke volumes. Rasmus has to go to Memphis and tear it completely up for a few months so JMo can force Rasmus on TLR when one of our outfielders gets hurt.
by jjray on
Oct 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT
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