But not TJ.

I guess that fits here.

I think when looking for any new players we should always buy low and sell high. So I have been looking for the ‘luckiest’ and ‘unluckiest’ players in the MIF. I have been using the HardballTimes THT stat PrOPS – OPS from 2008 for this.

http://tinyurl.com/4ec5bn

I am just going to focus on 2B and SS that we could potentially get

Luckiest

Name – PrOps – OPS – Props mins OPS (higher this number luckier the are)

Lopez, Felipe – .756 /.964/ .209
Furcal,Rafael – .852/1.012/.160
Barmes, Clint – .740/ .790/ .050
Roberts, Brian – .778/.828/.050
Hudson, Orlando .780/.817/.036

As most has already said Lopez was playing way beyond his skill set and the same with Furcal.

Unlucky

Castillo,Luis – .778/.660/-0.118
Greene,Khalil – .706/.599/ -0.106
Ellis,Mark – .798/.694/-0.104
Izturis,Cesar – .724/.628/-0.095
Renteria,Edgar – .760/.699/-0.061

Now since we are such a ground ball oriented team I going to rank the unlucky players by RZR and OOZ

Name – RZR – OOZ

Ellis, Mark – .897/31 (highest RZR in MLB by 2B and SS)
Izturis,Cesar – .869/58
Greene,Khalil – .835/37
Renteria,Edgar – .800/42
Castillo,Luis – .751/16

Here is just Adam Kennedy’s number just for comparison

Name – RZR – OOZ – PrOps – OPS – Props mins OPS
Kennedy,Adam – .881/31/.714/.692/-0.022

Mark Ellis sure looks like he makes a lot of sense. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball last year and the best fielding 2B in baseball. So you get an undervalued guy with a great glove. He is getting up there in age though now at 32. He is a Type B FA. The A’s are in negotiations with him but they also have multiple young IF’s so will probably try to low ball. He made $5 mil in 08 and this will be the first time he will test the FA market.

I was looking at the numbers in the MI post on the main page and I couldn’t get my arms around how Ellis didin’t have a higher defensive win shares number.

Heaven help us if he joins: Rolen, Mulder, Carp, Clement, Izzy and so many other “once-weres”!

I know its speculation, but its speculation from my favorite baseball blogger about my favorite baseball team…Thought I’d share…

The San Diego Padres have begun the process of sorting through initial trade conversations about All-Star right-hander Jake Peavy, and to date, their talks seem to have been with National League teams; Peavy has a no-trade clause and prefers to play in the NL.

One team — perhaps St. Louis — is discussing the possibility of expanding the package beyond Peavy to include shortstop Khalil Greene, who is under contract for 2009 for $6.5 million. It would make sense for the Padres to move Greene, who is coming off a disappointing season in which he hit .213 with 10 homers and 35 RBIs, a year after he hit 27 homers and drove in 97 runs. Greene, who turns 29 next week, is eligible for free agency after next season, and in moving Greene in a Peavy package, the Padres would create even more payroll flexibility as they look to acquire more consistency in their offense.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster

Well, I must say, I’m intrigued. I’m not sure what or how many prospects would be involved, but I’m assuming a Dan Haren-type haul would start. That would mean a can’t miss young player and then some. Could we avoid putting Rasmus in? I doubt it. Would they want Freese back? I doubt it. My best guess; Rasmus, Boggs, Garcia, Barden, and two Low-A or High-A guys. I could see San Diego wanting Anderson in there instead of one of the pitchers or Barden, but that’s just my thoughts.

I wonder if MO would have the balls to pull it off?

i’m wondering if he might be actually be a good solution at shortstop?
in my quick check i’ve noticed he has one very good year at the plate, 2004. it was also the year with his only above average babip (i think)… since then it’s been trending slightly down, and took a big drop this year. i know babip is a tricky concept to get a good grasp of for stat non-experts like myself, so i’m unsure of what conclusions to draw from this. his ISO took a big drop too. did he have injury problems in 08?
he usually seems like he can put up around league-average OPS, but with ugly OBPs; his decent slugging numbers make up for below average on base. since he’s only 28, could he be due to regress upward?
oh, and then there’s defense…

Peavy will require any team to pick up the 5th yr option as condition for the trade. This makes the idea a little less attractive. Peavy – 09:$8M, 10:$15M, 11:$16M, 12:$17M, 13:$22M

Potential Rotation = Peavy, Loshe, Wainwright, Wellemeyer, Carpenter. With Boggs, McClellan, Thompson as replacement/injury insurance.

I would be very hesitant to include Boggs in this deal. I like his potential to be insurance for Carp and a cost controlled 2010 – 201x rotation replacement for Wellemeyer.

Year 2012 – With Peavy due $17M, Loshe due almost $12M, Carp’s $15M option, Wainwright’s $9M option, Molina’s $7M option — as well as Albert’s extention kicking in that same season at probably $20 $25M that’s $80M$85M possible payroll obligatons for 6 players. Unless Dewitt forsees extending the payroll upto the $140M range something has to give. (fyi – I am in the camp that believes DeWitt can up the payroll to the $130M -$140M range and still run the team as a profitable/near profitable business).

Based on the future payroll outlook I would be very hesitant to give up Rasmus as well. Most certainly the Cardinals would (will) not be able to afford to keep Ludwick and Ankiel. Our supposed depth at OF would be required to be kept. Rasmus, Jay, Jones, Mather, and Barton all appear to be on the track to becoming at the worst decent/servicable MLB players (although we never know how good they might be), and in 2012 all would be necessary as cost controlled roster players.

Trade chips that do not hurt the 09 depth: Anderson, Freeze, Craig as well as any pitching prospect not named Boggs or Perez.

Perez is also a player we probably need to keep as a cost controlled closer – not to mention he could be really really good. Certianly the padres would have interest in him as Hoffman is 40 yrs old (and a free agent).

In summary, I would not give up Boggs or Perez to get Peavy, and I’d really have to understand what we have in Jay and Jones before gving up Rasmus.

I’d try to get the deal done with Jason Motte, Brian Anderson, and any 3 pitching prospects chosen from Tyler Herron, Jess Todd, Richard Castillo, Clayton Mortensen, Adam Ottavino, Blake Hawksworth. If they want an OF, give them the choice of Brian Barton, Nick Stavinoha or Shane Robinson. Not sure it gets it done, but with the payroll the cards would be taking on, it woudn’t be prudent to throw in all of our near ml ready talent as i’ve sen in some of the comments.

Leaves the question – How to trade Pinerio and Kennedy – and what would they bring in return?

*From Matthew Leach’s most recent mailbag (one of the comments from someone in Cardinal Nation):

I believe the Cards could really do some good this off season by working very closely with the Royals. The Royals are in desparate need of a power hitting first baseman or a consistent outfield that can drive the ball for power. Even though I love Chris Duncan I believe he could be a viable solution for the Royals. Also they could package a deal with Duncan and kennedy. Either one of these guys would be awesome trade bait and I believe the Cards cold get a Greinke or Mesche. I do not believe the Royals would not give up a Soriia. But the Royals are in desperate need for outfielders and a middle infielder.

*Sorry to who this may offend. Shield your eyes from the horror!!

and his baseball geekdom… but low and behold, mlb.com did an article about him and his love of statistics and sabermetrics:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article_entertainment.jsp?ymd=20080908&content_id=3438091&vkey=entertainment&fext=.jsp

in the article, it starts off with how camera crews got a shot of him sitting near Kent Hrbek at a Twins game, which I saw on espn one night. the guy is impossible to miss, with his grey afro. he is one of the most interesting and intelligent punk rockers I’ve ever read about in interviews (not to mention I’ve been a fan for a very long time).

I think the most interesting parts of the interview and article are that he doesn’t have a favorite team in particular, more that he is just a fan of the game; and that he says that you miss out on a lot of peripheral action when watching on tv, and that watching live is better because you see the player shifts and the managers and coaches at work.

This is interesting.

Anyone know anything about this kid, other than that he “has a bad attitude” (unsupported statement, from the link) and isn’t a great defender? An .841 OPS as a 22yo his first time through AAA and a .829 OPS in an extremely small sample size of MLB play makes him seem quite interesting, given that he’ll be available probably on a minor league deal…

Oh, never mind, the padres claimed him. Boo.

is reporting the Cards might be in the Peavy discussions.

One team — perhaps St. Louis — is discussing the possibility of expanding the package beyond Peavy to include shortstop Khalil Greene, who is under contract for 2009 for $6.5 million.

Per the P-D the Cardinals have just added left-handed pitcher Charlie Manning (formerly of the Washington Nationals). The released Josh Phelps to make this happen.

Manning was a 29-year old rookie this past year and will turn 30 right before next season begins. In 57 games, he threw 42 innings (finishing 7 of the games.) He had a 5.14 ERA and a 6.06 FIP. He struck out 37 in 42 innings, but walked 32 in the same amount. Left-handed hitters hit .203 off of Manning, with a .676 OPS. He pitched his best when he had more than 2 days of rest*, so the bullpen would need another lefty.

*explanation of the above statement:
0-1 days rest = 102 AB, 30 hits, 14 XBH
2+ days rest = 54 AB, 5 hits, 1 XBH

Villone, this year, had a .176 BAA v. lefties and a .629 OPS against. I don’t see this as an upgrade, but maybe an additional arm.

We signed Charlie Manning. Consider all postseason needs addressed.

I wonder if Mo might consider trading another ML-ready position player (most likely Brian Barton or Skip Schumaker) for Brian Giles. He’s got a $9 million option for 2009, IIRC. It might bust the payroll a bit, but it would give the Pads more salary relief. GIles is a strong OBP type with some speed. He could bat leadoff or second. The only trouble is that he’s a lefty, so you would really only take him on if you were trading Rasmus in the deal.

Then you’re talking something like this:

Padres get:

Rasmus
Mortenson/Todd
Freese
Perez
Schumaker

Salary dump: Approx. $27 million

Cardinals get:

Peavy
Greene
Giles

Salary increase: $23.2 million (assuming Izturis is let go)

You probably can’t take on a GIles contract without also clearing some salary (Kennedy, perhaps?). And you might even be forced to trade for cost-controlled LOOGy rather than signing a FA. It’s probably a stretch, but Giles would be really nice to have in front of Pujols.

I know there has been a lot of talk about getting Furcal (even though he’s probably going to re-sign with LA) and possibly Greene. Is there any possibility of us picking up Reid Birgnac from the Rays? He’s pretty much blocked in the Rays system by Jason Barlett so the Rays might be willing to part with him (or maybe not). I know he hasn’t proven himself yet at the major league level, but I know we don’t have any SS much better. He has the potential to be great, he’s only 22 and in AAA. Could the Cards possibly get him and for what? And what are the chances he could be ready to play SS at Busch on opening day?

So, let’s assume for a moment that St. Louis is a place that Peavy would waive his no-trade clause, and St. Louis FO has mutual interest. Let’s also assume that Peavy does want his option picked up, which takes the contractual obligation through 2013.

So, according to Buster Olney, and Tim Dierkes, the two forces who’ve put out the most on this topic, there is competition from Atlanta, LA Dodgers, Houston, Milwaukee, and St. Louis, as well as the Chicago Chokes. According to these sources, San Diego’s asking price is 2+ Arms and a MLB ready CF or soon to be ready CF.

I personally feel that these offers below will be the competitive offers made by each club:

Milwaukee:
Villanueva or Mat Gamel
Tony Gwynn Jr.
Parra or comparable SP
2 B+ prospects

Houston:
Pence
W. Rodriguez
Whatever they have left.

Chicago:
Samardzia (but not very cost controlled I understand)
Marshall
Pie
Cedeno
throw in(s)

**So far I think Milwaukee can do the best job for San Diego’s needs, depending on who they include.

But, here’s ther REAL competition:

Atlanta:
Jordan Schaefer
Jair Jurrjens
Y. Escobar (if Greene is given with JP)
1-2 other plus arms

*that is a very difficult offer to compete with w/out Rasmus being included

Los Angeles Dodgers:
M. Kemp
C. Kershaw or J. McDonald or C. Billingsley
2-3 Plus arms

**now I do think Towers won’t deal to LA unless he REALLY cleans up, so I do expect a VERY strong package from LA IF they are seriously in for this.

NOW, ST. LOUIS: I have gone through this long filibuster to point out that I see now way that San Diego would ACCEPT an offer of ours over others without it centering around one Colby Rasmus.

Rasmus
Todd
Perez/Motte
Kozma
(some inclusion of Mortensen or Boggs or even a low A/high A arm with big upside)

That offer is the type of offer St. Louis HAS to put on the table if they really want Jake Peavy wearing the birds on the bat.

My personal thoughts about this are up in the air. I am okay with dealing Rasmus if we can hold on to some relative healthy pool of arms. If we have to eliminate our best fielding prospect and best pitching prospect then I think we should go the way of the Cashman Yankees, and decline to include both. But, if one + B level prospects can do it, then I think Peavy is worth it. (I’m channeling the recent starts he’s had against us in the playoffs where he looked really good.) I think he makes the rotation very good w/out Carp, and if we get two former Cy Youngs pitching well than that is a true advantage. I think our bats could keep us competitive, we could still make a play at a decent MI, and put a good 2009 together.

I do believe MO would want to see what he can do by getting Greene in the package, as i do agree that the SD Front Office has fallen way out of favor with him. IMO, Greene comes at twice the cost for 2008 as Izturis would, with comparable defense, but twice the POTENTIAL at the plate.

They list the Braves and Dodgers as likely players and also throw in the Cards before disclosing this morsel:

The Padres are seeking at least two young pitchers in return, along with someone who can become the team’s everyday center fielder sometime in the immediate to near future.

Ankiel or Rasmus? Given the cost-controlled nature of Peavy, one would have to assume that the Pads would want a cost-controlled CF of the future. Ankiel does not seem to fit that mold.

Yes, I feel its inevitable that if we want to see Peavy and Wainwright anchor the Birds through 2013, then it’s going to come at the expense of Colby walking his dogs in the spacious Petco Park’s Centerfield Lawn.

is listing teams Peavy said he would waive his no-trade clause for.

Cardinals, Braves, Dodgers, Astros, and Cubs, I think. I might be forgetting one.

I thought it was interesting that Cardinals were listed first, as opposed to alphabetical order…

but that depends on where he hits. If they really bat him in front of Pujols then he would have a pretty good chance. It is not all that uncommon for guys to hit better in the bigs than in the minors, especially guys with good batting eyes.

Regarding Drew, while you are right he didn’t live up to the hype, I don’t think you can call OPS+es of 262, 91, 120, 161, 106, 132 and netting Adam Wainwright in a trade, nothing.

I am starting to think screw SD keep Rasmus. We should still have the players to get Peavy. Give em depth like Oak got for Haren. Schumacher, Barton, Darly Jones etc… Any pitchers as well due to the glut of contracts we will have with Peavy, Lohse, Carp, & Waino signed for the next few years.

someone with some catchy rumor headlining skills needs to start a new one.