Middle infield follow up
First, Hudson will be 31 when next season begins. He’s not getting any younger. It’s not that big a deal since Furcal will also be 31 next year. Second, he’s been injured each of the last 2 seasons – playing only 109 games this season following surgery on his wrist. His 2007 injury was for a torn ligament in his thumb. Most importantly, however, he was a -4 in fielding +/- this season. He has a reputation of being an outstanding fielder – well-deserved considering the fact that he finished #5 and #3 among second basemen in the previous 2 seasons. However, considering the fact that there was a precipitous drop in his defensive play this season – the year he turned 30, it makes me wonder how much value he’ll really have in the next 3 seasons. Add all that together, and is he really a $25 or $30 M improvement over Aaron Miles – particularly when it would likely preclude a similar improvement at shortstop, in the rotation, or in the pen?
I casually mentioned the possibility of trading for one of the Angels’ shortstop prospects. Brandon Wood has been one of the top prospects in baseball, and now appears to be blocked by Erick Aybar. Or would the Angels rather trade Aybar to promote Wood? And what about Sean Rodriguez, who actually may have passed Wood as a prospect? The problem is that both Wood and Rodriguez have serious plate discipline issues – issues that may preclude either from becoming solid major-league players. As a major leaguer this year, Wood had 4 BBs to 43 Ks. Yuck! It doesn’t get much worse than that. In his career as a minor leaguer, he has 2.66 Ks for every walk. At least he has very good power for a middle infielder. Still, we may be looking at a guy who’ll have a career OBP in the .300 to .320 range. Is he the guy we want?
Rodriguez had 14 BBs to 53 Ks this season w/ the Angels. For his minor league career, he’s averaged 1.85 Ks for every walk, has less power than Wood, and he may truly be a second baseman, rather than a shortstop. Aybar may actually be the worst hitter of them all – 14 BBs to 45 Ks this year and he has little power, less than the other 2. But Aybar is a very good defensive player – registering a +7, tied for 9th in the big leagues in about 60% of the season. I still see Zobrist as better than any of them but think that the Angels would trade at least 1 if they got the right deal – and it wouldn’t cost Rasmus.
The other 2B options I didn’t address included Jarrett Hoffpauir – a guy who, I once likened to a poor man’s Dustin Pedroia. Now, I’ll admit that he didn’t do much to live up to Pedroia, but he did walk more than he struck out and he had a 27.6% extra base hit rate. I think he still has a chance, but he’s not a top prospect. It doesn’t help that Tony, allegedly, doesn’t like his defense.
Another option, potentially, is Brian Barden. He’s played most of his minor league career as a third sacker and has a very good defensive reputation. He played a lot of SS at Memphis this year and for the Olympic team. There’s a pretty good chance he could handle 2nd. The thing that triggered the idea of using Barden at 2nd, or at least giving him a shot in the spring to win the job, is the success that Blake DeWitt of the Dodgers has had making this transition. DeWitt came up as a 3B and moved to 2B when the Dodgers traded for Casey Blake. He’s become a solid defensive 2B, or at least appears to be solid in the admittedly limited time I’ve had to view him, and his offense seems to be more suited to 2nd as well. He didn’t really hit enough to stick at third. That’s been one of the knocks on Barden as well.
I’ll preface this by saying that Barden is 3 ½ years older than DeWitt. He’s not young, for a prospect. He’ll turn 28 as the season starts next year. But if you compare his minor league numbers to DeWitt’s, they’re very similar. DeWitt’s career minor league slash lines were .280/.333/.446. Barden’s are .294/.349/.445. Barden appears to have slightly less power – less of a problem at the keystone than at the hot corner – but a similar ability to get on base. They both have about a 7% walk rate in the minors. His minor league translations from BP aren’t as good as DeWitt’s – probably b/c of the age difference – DeWitt has yet to peak and Barden’s probably in his peak years. But what do we have to lose by giving him and Hoffpauir a shot?
If they fail, we have Miles, who is adequate. I’m not sure I see the need to bring in Lopez who is, potentially, a better offensive player (although potentially much worse as well, to which the Nationals can attest) but who also is likely to give back most of his offensive gains through his horrendous defense. Can’t one of Barden, Hoffpauir, and Miles serve as our utility infielder if they can’t make it as a starter? Hoffpauir probably can’t play short, but we could use Miles as the backup SS and go w/ Hoffpauir at 2B. I know, Miles isn’t good at SS (though his +/- this year at SS was pretty good) but again, he’s probably better than Lopez. I’m resigned to the fact that they’ll bring Lopez back but I really don’t see the need. It will be a colossal error if Mozeliak gives Lopez more than 1 guaranteed year.
Goold, at the p-d, dealt w/ the Furcal issue a couple days ago. He’s definitely an upgrade, if he’s healthy, and b/c he’s a free agent, wouldn’t require the bounty that Tulowitzki would. Still, the more I watch the Rays the more I think Skip could get us Zobrist. Maybe Skip’s not that much better than Gabe Gross against righties (.822 career OPS vs. .786) but a platoon of Skip and Rocco Baldelli sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? They get some improvement in their lineup and on defense for a utility IF (for them) – a guy who doesn’t figure to ever be their starting SS. We get a good young SS for the next 5 years and we open up a spot for Rasmus. They’d have to consider it, wouldn’t they? Unless their playoff run makes them feel like they need to add more power than Skip would provide.
As I was watching the Rays even the series last night at 12:30 this morning, it occurred to me that there may be another option at SS – Julio Lugo. Let’s see, he’ll be 33 in a month, is owed $9 M in 2009, and $9 M in 2010. He had an OPS+ of 80 this year and his fielding +/- was -2. He "slugged" a whopping .330. Ok, never mind!
A lot of Cards had breakthrough seasons this year, and some others began to establish themselves as legitimate major leaguers. If nothing else, it give Mo a lot of options in terms of improving the middle infield situation. Maybe Furcal’s the best option. But, if he is, he’s the best option for several teams – not just us and losing him to another bidder wouldn’t necessarily make our DeWitt "cheap" – though that’s how many Cards’ fans will portray him. We need a plan B.
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Comments
Skip for Zobrist
makes a lot of sense, so it probably won’t happen. I too think they’re bound and determined to re-sign Lopez and play him at second. Izturis may not be a bad option at ss. He did end up hitting over .260, albeit with no power or production. His defense definitely helped the pitching and they may be able to survive with him in TLR’s #9 spot. He also might continue to improve from his 2+ seasons of bouncing around. I haven’t seen enough of Zobrist to comment on his defense, but the Rays traded for Bartlett because they didn’t think enough of it, which makes me skeptical of turning the position over to him. Skip for Zobrist AND signing Izturis and Lopez may be the best option of all. It leaves us with:
Rasmus
Lopez
Albert
Ludwick
Ankiel
Glaus
Molina
pitcher
Izturis/Zobrist
Not a bad lineup. I agree they should spend the money on pitching and avoid both Hudson and Furcal. Both are older, would tie up large chunks of money, and have histories of injury.
I get the distinct impression from comments by Strauss, Mo, and TLR that their target FA is Fuentes. They seem to think he fills two needs- he’s left-handed and has experience as a closer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Perez traded. They might think Motte is a better fit in a year or two.
by vinniefromjersey on Oct 12, 2008 9:43 AM EDT 0 recs
hmm...
I know he hit leadoff in ST this year. But I would prefer something like this
Lopez – B
Rasmus – L
Albert – R
Ludwick – L
Glaus – R
Ankiel – L
Molina – R
Pitcher –
Izturis – B
by Evilfrog on
Oct 12, 2008 10:23 AM EDT
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okay with the top,
but Ludwick is R, leaving three R’s in a row.
by vinniefromjersey on
Oct 12, 2008 10:46 AM EDT
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Ludwick also maintained...
a reverse platoon split for this season: .929/,984…though not as drastic as in the past: .829/.959. Stacking up RRR when the middle guy hits Righties better might be a good thing.
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 12, 2008 11:17 AM EDT
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Skip for Zobrist w/an AK chaser
HC makes a lot of cents :)) Use Barden/Ryan/Hoff/Miles combo as the utility IF. Miles is the only one NOT under club control.
Spend $$ on bullpen, or see how the SP market plays out. I see no reason to rush into hasty buying FA pitching.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2008 StL Cardinal theme song: "Beautiful Day" by U2
by gocards62 on
Oct 12, 2008 10:50 AM EDT
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miles is under control
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on
Oct 12, 2008 1:03 PM EDT
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Zobrist and Lopez
is potentially the worst defensive middle infield in the history of baseball.
by haltz on
Oct 12, 2008 12:54 PM EDT
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holy cow
you aren’t kidding. I thought he was decent defensively but the numbers say otherwise:
over 958.2 innings from ‘06-’08, he was a -20 at SS. And he’s getting worse as time goes on.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 12, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
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I've been seriously thinking about Skip for Kelly Johnson
Both have similar career rate stats (Skip: .299/.350/.404/.754, KJ: .273/.356/.440/.796). As far as the lineup goes, this would mean having Skip’s bat at 2nd base, allowing a different player to play LF out of our significant outfield/3rd base surplus.
Atlanta’s reason to trade would be that they need at least 2 outfielders, including a CF, which Skip can do decently at least, and they have Prado to play 2nd. Our reasons are obvious.
It probably wouldn’t hurt to have a platoon partner for Kelly Johnson, which limits his value somewhat, and we would probably have to ship a prospect of some type to Atlanta in return.
However, this trade makes all the sense in the world in my book.
by aNdrOss on
Oct 13, 2008 5:00 PM EDT
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I am wondering
With the big market correction well, crash, if this will effect the FA market this winter. Personnally if I were a onwer I would be worried about bad economic times ahead. What if we went into a deep recession or worse, and the ball park is only half full. What if revenues are so bad pay rolls are tough to meet.
My wife and I both took hugh hits to our 401k’s and the value of house is down. The owners of MLB clubs must have seen the same kind thing happen. FRUGALITY maybe the catch phrase at the winter meetings.
With this in mind I would have to pass on double digit type signings. You know 18m for Lowe,15m for Furcal, or anything of that nature.
by nybirdfan on Oct 12, 2008 10:38 AM EDT 0 recs
I think you might be right, on the one hand,
but the Lohse signing may set the market for third and fourth starters. I imagine that teams are trying to figure this out as we speak and I think that Bud’s going to meet w/ team owners to talk about the current economic situation. It’s entirely possible that a few players slip through the way Lohse did last offseason and that K-Rod, Furcal, Dunn, Burrell, etc. don’t get the payday they’re expecting. Lowe’s not getting $18 M — I’d think more like 4 and $50, unless his age scares teams into only offering 3 years.
by chuckb on
Oct 12, 2008 10:57 AM EDT
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I am not sure
Lohse will matter because he was signed before the big bang. I was hoping Lowe could be had for a resonable price, but I keep hearing 18m. Any how now any big deal might be less likely.
by nybirdfan on
Oct 12, 2008 11:02 AM EDT
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the intangibles
of course the Cards have a recent history of going on the cheap as far as second base is concerned { and I still think not paying Grudz the extra that would have kept him in St. L for a few more years was a huge mistake/oversight } and therefore Hudson’s arrival at 2b is probably not going to happen {$}… but it would make me happy.
By all accounts I have absorbed, the O-dog is a wonderful clubhouse addition and a solid person, who may thus possibly (I say ’possibly’) be worth the extra money. I have deep doubts about Lopez, both in this ‘intangibles’ regard and also what I have seen of him (and this goes back, too, to his days in Cincy, where I saw him on TV a lot) as far as baseball intelligence. as in situational hitting and base-running… those stupid little things that I admit I tend to over-value.
Zobrist is appealing because he is a switch-hitter (from nearby Illinois) and possibly ready to come into his own; but his K rate alarms me (admittedly small samples) and I can’t get a definitive handle on his defense. However, I viscerally dislike Izturis (.260 notwithstanding)… he may indeed be better than average at defense, but why, then, when a ball is grounded his way, do I go “oh shit” ? And at the plate, too many of his ‘hits’ seem to be of the little league variety (even Kennedy has more punch, which is an extremely low standard.)
I remain a NO man to most of the holdover MI contingent, Lopez, Itz, and especially Kennedy. Ryan ? And Miles ok as long as he is not an every day starter.
by the Tewk on Oct 12, 2008 10:39 AM EDT 0 recs
i'd say he has pop
Zobrist in 198 ab’s
.339/ .505 /.253 With 12hr’s. He did strike out 37 times and walked 25
by nybirdfan on
Oct 12, 2008 10:56 AM EDT
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WTF
.253/.339/.505
What kind of crazy order is OBP/SLG/AVG?
by mojowo11 on
Oct 12, 2008 3:02 PM EDT
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the order is
the way they are listed at the MLB website. Sorry that I offended thee oh mighty one.
by nybirdfan on
Oct 12, 2008 10:07 PM EDT
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regarding intangibles
zobrist’s PA in the 11th or 12th last night where he was asked to sac bunt and worked a walk was a great job of playing smart baseball. He took 3 borderline, buntable pitches slightly out of the zone and ended up moving the runner over without making an out. I was duly impressed.
the enemy's gate is down.
by SleepyCA on
Oct 12, 2008 2:10 PM EDT
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he definitely has
plate presence that Wood and Rodriguez don’t seem to have. He’s got some power and will be a pretty good offensive player. There’s a question about his defense but I think it’s likely he’ll be a better offensive player than the more heralded Wood.
by chuckb on
Oct 12, 2008 3:48 PM EDT
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im not sure how you can say that since
Zobrist minor league numbers arent as good as Wood and he is 4 years older. granted Zobrist did play in tougher leagues for hitters than Wood but that still does not account for the age difference. that type of power from a SS is epic.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on
Oct 12, 2008 4:08 PM EDT
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not that i am against Zobrist, mind you
because i do LOVE the OBP possibility…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on
Oct 12, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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this is the first year zobrist has shown that kind of power
so its hard to know if he will continue with that as a skill set
i’ve been screaming for barden to get some ABs since the beginning of the year when i saw him at memphis….it was immediately apparent to me that he was better than both miles and ryan, yet we kep both of them for more than half of the season
by VolsnCards5 on Oct 12, 2008 11:50 AM EDT 0 recs
the best depth move today,
would be offeringing izturis 3.5mil, w/2010 club option for 4.0mil, 0.25mil buyout. then work from there, to improve the middle infield.
we need 120 games started from someone besides ryan, barden or miles at ss. if we can get kennedy moved, then we can look to upgrade somehow and shift izturis accordingly, if nercessary. his D will play at 2B, SS or backup 3B. his D is worth 3.5% of team budget to me, for the pitching staff.
i expect these bench players stats will fall when subject to everyday usage (zobrist, miles, ryan, kennedy). they currently sit, when matchups are unfavorable. izturis to a lesser degree.
games started 2008…..izturis 111, kennedy 82, miles 81, ryan 22
by ball in play on Oct 12, 2008 11:59 AM EDT 0 recs
What's so wrong with Barden?
He was apparently good enough at short to make the olympic team. If you said $2/2.5 mil for Iz2 I’d agree…I don’t think his defense is worth $3.5 let alone $4 mil.
by cardzfanbub on
Oct 12, 2008 2:11 PM EDT
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If his D is so valuable...
then I don’t think moving him to 2B makes sense. His D would certainly “play” at 2nd, but it already plays really well at SS. If you’re looking for a MIF bat, then you can go after the best bat available at either SS or 2B, and then make that guy your second baseman.
If Izturis has defensive value to you, there’s no reason to put him at any position except the most difficult one.
by lightbulb on
Oct 12, 2008 2:44 PM EDT
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won't have that option till he's resigned, and that's the point of my reply. not his versatility.
sign him, lock down 120 starts at ss, and go from there.
move kennedy for a reliever as a salary wash and chase furcal if you want.
i’d ask izturis to move to 2B for furcal :) you wouldn’t?
by ball in play on
Oct 12, 2008 6:28 PM EDT
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No
I’d ask Furcal to move to second base.
Izturis had the best zone rating at SS this year in the NL.
by lightbulb on
Oct 12, 2008 6:38 PM EDT
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if furcal moved to second
he’d have to stop throwing so hard
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 13, 2008 5:59 PM EDT
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How about
converting Brett Wallace to 2B?
Hey, his range won’t be any less than Floppy’s…
by StanTheManFan on Oct 12, 2008 12:49 PM EDT 0 recs
throwing this out there
Still recovering from last night/this morning, so I’ll make this quick.
How are our prep costs for the All-Star Game going to affect the club’s winter moves? (Boyyyyy if it’s more dipping into the public coffers, I dunno how that’ll work out for STL — just putting security together will be huge. SF put in 700K for theirs.)
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Oct 12, 2008 2:56 PM EDT 0 recs
Jesus Merchan
I wonder if Arizona would be willing to trade thier AAA shortstop for Kennedy. He’s 27 w pretty good #‘s. One day I’ll have to learn how to provide a link but if you go to the d-backs site you’ll find him. Stephen Drew I’m sure is locked in for them and they finished the year w/ an opening at 2nd base. Seems like a good deal to me. Mo may have to sweeten the pot since Kennedy has only 1 year left on his contract. I dont know about his defense but the offense looks very promising. Any thoughts? Would it take more? Stupid idea?
by Walking Underwear on Oct 12, 2008 3:31 PM EDT 0 recs
That line
will translate horribly. Average-ish PCL OPS with pretty crappy ISO rates.
by haltz on
Oct 12, 2008 3:43 PM EDT
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+1
Be VERY suspicious of any hitter who’s still in AAA at age 27, particularly one who’s in the PCL and not putting up a 1+ OPS.
by StanTheManFan on
Oct 12, 2008 5:07 PM EDT
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re: Wood "Is he the guy we want?"
YES!!! even if he tops out at a .320 OBP, which based on his minor league numbers and walk rates seems very low, he could still have a .850 OPS with his slugging potential in which only Hanley Ramirez had better than in ALL OF BASEBALL! is he going to strike out a ton? yes. is he going to play defense like Izturis? no, but i would bet it is better than Eck’s was and adding in a .850 OPS you are talking about being the best SS in baseball. Now with that OBP he couldnt hit at the top of the lineup but if you slot him in at 5th or 6th he be a major run producer and the best part he is only 24 which means he will get better. if he got his OBP up to .350, a very realistic task, we are talking about a HOF caliber hitter at the most important defensive position. now i am probably getting way ahead of myself but i have a hard time buying that any SS available has more potential than Wood.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on Oct 12, 2008 3:57 PM EDT 0 recs
we are also getting ahead of ourselves
when considering whether he is even available. when was the last time the angels traded a prospect? they may even try wood at 3b next year. rodriguez would be the more realistic option and the less attractive one
by FunkeeC on
Oct 12, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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I would expect Figgins to stay at third for the Angels
At some point, they’ll have to trade at least one of those guys won’t they? If they don’t, they’ll end up dumping him for table scraps, the way we did w/ Reyes. If they want to get something for him, they’ll have to trade since it doesn’t appear as if they’ll play him. If they keep Aybar at SS, that frees up Wood and/or Rodriguez. Now, they won’t give them away but we have players of value. It wouldn’t surprise me to see us offer up Chris Perez as soon as K-Rod walks. Chris Perez for Wood? It’s my preference to see Perez stay as our closer but I don’t think that’s likely so we may look to get what we can for him while his value is pretty high.
by chuckb on
Oct 12, 2008 5:14 PM EDT
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you think they would do that?
from our perspective i would do it in a heartbeat and i like Perez but a right-handed bullpen arm is replaceable quite easily even one that is as potentially good as YP. i dont see the Angels trading a stud SS prospect for a RP prospect no matter how good they are but i wouldnt be against throwing a little more their way to sweeten the pot…
"Baseball is like church. Many attend, but few understand." -Wes Westrum
by nomar34 on
Oct 12, 2008 6:27 PM EDT
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Jesus Merchan
Horribly? Really? I just thought his #‘s looked better than anything the cards system had to offer. Obviously not much power to his bat but a 339avg in 436 ab’s A deal like this I would think could be compared to the Edmonds/Freese deal. Not saying a prospect would be the best way to go. I would love to see Furcal in a cards uni next year but as long as Kennedy wants out…
by Walking Underwear on Oct 12, 2008 4:01 PM EDT 0 recs
what are his other rate stats?
looking at only average for a 27 year old in AAA is kinda useless without any other context
by FunkeeC on
Oct 12, 2008 4:03 PM EDT
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I said that line will
translate horribly. BPro has him at a .228 EqA, so there you go. He’s not going to hit .340 in the show, so the 14 BBs and the 4 HRs are a concern, to put it another way.
by haltz on
Oct 12, 2008 4:30 PM EDT
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had 23 errors last season
obp/373 slg/443 so44 bb18 72rbi
by Walking Underwear on Oct 12, 2008 4:09 PM EDT 0 recs
I still want Jesus and Elvis on our team
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Oct 13, 2008 6:00 PM EDT
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I have to Say....
….I’m not mooch of a Hudson fan either; but I’m sure that those who decried getting Jake Peavy because of an injury he might have will be demanding we get Hudson, even though he actually has been injured the last couple of years. I dunno, maybe its an anti-cow thing…
:=8/
by The MooCow on Oct 12, 2008 4:37 PM EDT 0 recs
Don't put me in that herd
I am against both, especially Hudson. My beef with the proposed Peavy deal was that I don’t want to trade Rasmus for any high-priced pitcher unless we are virtually certain the guy is healthy. You know you just don’t trade a young bull for a potential steer. I’d rather see something more similar to the Delmon Young/Matt Garza trade if we really think we need to deal Rasmus. That said, I think it would be foolish to trade Rasmus unless we totally fleece the other side.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on
Oct 12, 2008 4:58 PM EDT
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David Freese
Any chance he could move to 2B? I don’t know much about his defense, but as clogged as the Cards farm system is with third basemen, might be something to consider. Maybe this has already been discussed and I just missed it. Go Rays.
Anyone but the Cubs.
by tangledbrett on Oct 12, 2008 8:48 PM EDT 0 recs
It's a far less ridiculous proposition than moving Schumaker or another outfielder.
One thing to consider is the difference needs defensively between the two positions. At third, you need someone who has good reaction time and a strong arm. At second, range is more important and the athleticism/footwork to turn a double play. I don’t have a good enough grasp on Freese’s range to make a guess but that would be the first thing I’d question about the viability of the move.
by azruavatar on
Oct 12, 2008 9:43 PM EDT
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I say the only deal to make
is if we get a decent deal on Furcal. Hudson is in decline. ixnay on the obristzay
go rays
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Oct 13, 2008 6:01 PM EDT 0 recs











