community projection: matt clement

by lboros on Jan 8, 2008 9:27 AM EST in News Comment 127 comments

matt clement first became a free agent after the 2004 season. at the time i thought he was a good fit for the cardinals, who were flimsy at the top of their rotation --- carpenter hadn't yet established himself as a bona fide ace, morris was in eclipse, and the rest of the staff comprised steady eddies who could win division titles but didn't scare anybody in october. clement went only 9-13 in 2004, but he had a good era and good peripherals; from 2002-04 he showed flashes of dominance, posting the 4th-highest strikeout rate in the league and holding opposing batters to a .223 / .309 / .360 line. he was 29 years old, mature and healthy; he'd taken 30 or more starts for the previous 6 years in a row. the cardinals never showed much interest in clement and instead traded for mark mulder, who was coming off a much shakier season; here's how the two pitchers' three-year lines compared heading into 2005:

	GS	IP	H/9	W/9	K/9	HR/9	ERA	AVG	OBP	SLG
clement 02-04	94	588	7.4	3.7	8.8	1.0	3.80	.223	.309	.360
mulder 02-04	89	620	8.5	2.6	6.2	0.9	3.72	.252	.310	.391

these pitchers continued to track each other in 2005-07: both wrecked their shoulders, had surgery in 2006, and missed most or all of the 2007 season. now they're teammates.

the VEB community did a reasonably accurate job of projecting last year (here's a summary of what we projected). our most difficult test was to project braden looper, who had never pitched as a starter before, and we acquitted ourselves well. projecting clement is almost as dicey; there's no telling how this guy might perform.

if you're not familiar w/ the community projection trope, here's how it works: you post your gut feeling about how a given player's stat line will look in 2008, and i average up the results. for clement, i'd like you to give me the following numbers:

games started
innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
ERA

you have to post the numbers in comma-delimited fashion --- that is, separate the numbers by commas only, with no spaces in between. like so:

24,140,137,68,115,21,7,10,4.67

if your numbers aren't formatted correctly, they won't get counted. also, it's highly recommended that you come up with your numbers before reading everybody else's, to avoid having your opinion polluted by your neighbor's; we're striving for pure out-your-ass numbers here. on the same basis, don't consult w/ ZIPS, PECOTA, CHONE, or other projection systems before you arrive at your numbers. i'll have the results on thursday.

shifting gears: i got a note the other day from mike (aka the angry rant) at Stan Musial's Stance; he's involved with SABR's san diego chapter, whose next meeting will feature paul depodesta as a guest speaker. depodesta, the former dodger gm and billy beane protégé, now works in the padres' front office and was on the short list for the st louis gm job. he'll be taking questions at the SABR meeting, and mike has pledged to pass along queries from his readers (although he asks that the questions not be cardinal-centric). more info is here.

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My guess

21,112,115,50,93,19,6,9,4.48

by arch support on Jan 8, 2008 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here ya go

25/135/141/80/112/19/8/11/4.96

Clement's shoulder may be healthy, but he is going to have control issues and I'm worried his sinker won't sink and his slider won't bite like it used to.

by silent_bob on Jan 8, 2008 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's early...

He said "separate by commas only." Here:
25,135,141,80,112,19,8,11,4.96

by silent_bob on Jan 8, 2008 10:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

23,130,120,55,112,18,8,8,4.65

by bertold213 on Jan 8, 2008 9:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

clement time

27, 168, 173, 79, 115, 14, 8, 13, 4.77

I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be.

by erik on Jan 8, 2008 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Space police here........

Re-post if you want your "vote" counted.

- Hanging Chad

by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cleeement

20,130,135,55,103,12,8,8,4.55

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Jan 8, 2008 9:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Right here

18,93,103,47,88,8,4,7,4.61

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Jan 8, 2008 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

hmph...

26,148,140,70,99,18,10,11,4.80

Control will be a problem. His K-rate won't be what it used to...but not too bad.

by cardzfanbub on Jan 8, 2008 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

count me in

27,153,159,76,119,32,6,13,5.09

I am not as pessimistic as these numbers sound. I think he will get off to a shaky start, find himself for a while, and then kind of fall apart as the shoulder fatigues. Kind of like my golf game.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 8, 2008 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

when do pitchers and catcher's report?

i'm ready and waiting for my baseball fix....

clement? nothing sexy about his numbers. here's my uneducated guess (and that's exactly what it is!)....

23,138,135,58,129,18,8,8,4.20

by busch league on Jan 8, 2008 10:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 2008

sez I...

25,140,125,65,110,17,8,8,4.75

by martin on Jan 8, 2008 10:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

STATS!

27, 153, 140, 55, 127, 20, 10, 9, 4.20

by barry whiteteeth on Jan 8, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Space police here........

Re-post if you want your "vote" counted.

- Hanging Chad

by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

STATS! Part Deux

27,153,140,55,127,20,10,9,4.20

my bad...

by barry whiteteeth on Jan 8, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Im In

26,157,160,52,128,16,10,8,4.20

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jan 8, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

spooky

i didn't look at our guess before i posted mine but they are spooky close.

by indakind on Jan 8, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"your" guess

brain and fingers still sleeping apparently

by indakind on Jan 8, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good pitcher, not-so-good team

30,190,175,70,150,22,12,13,3.90

by DCGreg on Jan 8, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

19,99,138,54,87,13,4,7,5.75

by Hungry Jack on Jan 8, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Matt

20,115,103,58,81,11,8,6,4.41

by lightbulb on Jan 8, 2008 10:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

good not great

29,155,163,52,116,16,11,9,4.34

by indakind on Jan 8, 2008 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts

25,175,200,50,125,15,10,10,4.25

by STLEdge on Jan 8, 2008 10:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

8, 27, 35, 20, 9, 8, 0, 5, 6.00

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 8, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

And I am sad about it. (not that I agree with you, but about the state of Cardinals Starting rotation.)

by gonzostl on Jan 8, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Space police here.......

Re-post if you want your "vote" counted.

- Hanging Chad

by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projection

29,197,117,54,183,9,15,6,3.87

by stlzoot on Jan 8, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My two cents

23,110,101,40,100,18,7,11,4.76

by fishref on Jan 8, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

clement projection

jotted down an optimistic and a pessimistic line... decided to be a downer. reconstructed shoulders are nothing but trouble.

7,35,52,18,18,9,1,5,7.02

I'd rather my sister become a prostitute than my brother become a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Jan 8, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yup

I share your pessimism, though my forecast is slightly less horrid than yours.

But I am very bearish on pitchers with torn cuffs and labrums. I don't think this will be pretty.

by Hungry Jack on Jan 8, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You should average the two to represent

your complete thoughts on the stats...

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clement

26,167,173,72,114,23,9,11,4.86

by roarke on Jan 8, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

13,80,75,40,50,9,4,4,4.37

by awpierce on Jan 8, 2008 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe too realistic?

23,125,125,52,93,22,6,10,5.25

by airhad on Jan 8, 2008 11:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

clement projection

28,162,147,73,130,17,10,8,4.32

by rjwillia on Jan 8, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wishful

I would consider this line a promising comeback.

26,152,213,83,143,18,12,9, 4,12

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Jan 8, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Joining in the optimist club...

26,162,165,80,140,28,13,11,4.23

by ArkansasTravs on Jan 8, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's gonna be a long year......

20,118,125,60,100,17,8,8,4.85

"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"

by BleacherBum on Jan 8, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Assuming reasonably good health

25,155,146,63,138,17,10,8,4.23

by Merry CRasmus on Jan 8, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement Predictions

25,150,176,60,120,20,12,10,4.39

Buck Rampage

by mathisjm on Jan 8, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Projections

28,185,195,80,150,25,9,9,4.56

by South Side Cards Fan on Jan 8, 2008 12:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here's my line...

28/186/130/51/123/28/14/12/4.12

As you can guess I am betting he is as healthy as everybody says he is...

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry...forgot. Commas only

28,186,130,51,123,28,14,12,4.12

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my completely uneducated guess

but then again... paletta didn't perform his shoulder surgery...

30,173,150,60,20,12,8,4.10

When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?

by RosevilleRedbird on Jan 8, 2008 12:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my line

23,157,161,72,129,15,8,8,4.97

by tomkmstl on Jan 8, 2008 12:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Senor Clement

24, 132.3, 143, 45, 110, 16, 8, 10, 4.80

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 8, 2008 1:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Space police here........

Re-post if you want your "vote" counted.

- Hanging Chad

by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why does he keep saying that?

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oops

24,132.3,143,45,110,16,8,10,4.80

Thanks

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 9, 2008 3:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The precursor to a rockin' 2009

22,175,190,85,180,12,10,7,4.25

by Jhusk on Jan 8, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

crap

I meant

22,145,190,85,180,12,10,7,4.25

by Jhusk on Jan 8, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

190 hits in 145 IP? Sure hope not.

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 8, 2008 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I see

a lot of cheap, seeing-eye singles given the nature of the pitcher Matt Clement is.

by Jhusk on Jan 9, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope

23,127,131,60,101,21,9,9,4.37

by alkane88 on Jan 8, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

an 88 mph fastball...

I hope I'm wrong.

18,100,115,25,75,14,4,8,5.41

the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 8, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement in '08...

23,138,129,70,108,18,8,10,4.12

Probably on the optimistic side.

by Cards82 on Jan 8, 2008 1:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 08

25,180,163,70,120,20,8,8,4.75

by cards13 on Jan 8, 2008 1:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement '08

26,147,155,55,114,19,8,9,4.94

by Nathan W on Jan 8, 2008 1:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 08

20,120,110,50,100,15,8,5,4.25

by StLHugo on Jan 8, 2008 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 08 - I think the shoulder's healthy

31,185,201,52,153,24,13,11,4.12

"Sometimes beating these last-place teams is like trying to chase kitty-cats in the park... you just can't do it!" - Mike Shannon

by Oregonian Redbird on Jan 8, 2008 2:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Temporary threadjack(HOF news)...

HOF votes are in, and only Goose Gossage got in.

End of threadjack

"It's always about the money. Anyone who says it's not is lying."- Gene Simmons

by cardsrul on Jan 8, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement '08 projection

20,110,120,40,72,12,7,8,4.90

jwilson

by taguchi on Jan 8, 2008 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

28,172,148,76,141,20,12,11,4.06

games started
innings
hits
walks
strikeouts
homers
wins
losses
ERA

"It takes pitching, hitting and defense. Any two can win. All three make you unbeatable". Joe Garagiola

by MRCARD on Jan 8, 2008 2:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 2008 Projection

28,185,171,69,152,19,12,9,4.34

by TenRingsAndCounting on Jan 8, 2008 2:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 08

25,161,158,59,121,16,8,10,4.02

by joedick on Jan 8, 2008 2:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

MINE

27,155,130,75,165,25,12,12,4.21

Cardinals, Cardinals, Cardinals!

by GOOCH24 on Jan 8, 2008 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not to split hairs: a less than chintastic year

24,144,128,54,119,17,8,9,4.30

by Fred Head on Jan 8, 2008 2:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

27, 170, 150, 70, 145, 17, 14, 8, 3.89

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball

by bheikoop on Jan 8, 2008 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Space police here..........

Re-post if you want your "vote" counted.

- Hanging Chad

by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is Here Fine?

Or would you like it elsewhere?

2008 Matt Clement projection:

27, 170, 150, 70, 145, 17, 14, 8, 3.89

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball

by bheikoop on Jan 8, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You still didn't remove

the space.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 8, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hahaha...

Got it, I thought you meant interweb space, as in a police office of the interweb ensuring trolls be banished.

27,170,150,70,145,17,14,8,3.89

The internet's latest attempt at understanding what is going on inside baseball

by bheikoop on Jan 8, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the spaces, man. like this: 1,2,3,4,5

by ortic jones on Jan 8, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clement

In an abbreviated season, before he hurts his arm again, or ends up in the TLR/Dunc doghouse:

10,63,95,28,48,10,3,5,5.36

"It's always about the money. Anyone who says it's not is lying."- Gene Simmons

by cardsrul on Jan 8, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here goes nothing....

25,150,186,66,124,23,12,8,4.36

Card fan in SWIN

by SWIN on Jan 8, 2008 3:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 2008

He'll miss some starts due to fatigue and a stint on the DL (ala Looper) and struggle with control in and out of the strike zone:

19,119,119,69,77,16,6,8,4.77

by LuBrock20 on Jan 8, 2008 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not terribly optimistic

Very shaky early on with just enough improvement towards the end to make us want to pick up the option for next year.

20,106,121,44,55,10,5,10,5.05

by chris13 on Jan 8, 2008 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

fixed

27,168,173,79,115,14,8,13,4.77

I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be.

by erik on Jan 8, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement in 2008

26,180,155,60,90,14,12,8,3.89

Card Fan Chad

by CardsFanChad on Jan 8, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my predictions

25,160,8,3,6,22,10,8,4.45

He definitely won't get 30 starts this season pitching on the back-end of the rotation and his ERA is probably going to regress to league average from his 3 year average from 2002-2004. Same with strikeouts, althougth I'm optimisitic that his walk rate might go down as he has to rely on location and finesse a bit more to get hitters out. Why only 10-8? Because he's literally the unluckiest pitcher in the big leagues. He should have at least three 15 win seasons under his belt and probably should have won 20 games in 2004 if it wasn't for atrocious run support. Baseball-Reference has him most closely related to Todd Stottlemyre at this point in his career; if he can be as successful as Stottlemyre was at age 33 & 34 we probably have ourselves a steal.

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 8, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ummm...

Your numbers don't make sense. 8 hits in 160 innings? I think not.

Look at the requested columns again:

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 9, 2008 2:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pessimist!

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Jan 9, 2008 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nuh uh!

I just think it's OBVIOUS that Clement is going to give up at LEAST 16 hits over 160 innings.

8 is just crazy talk.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 9, 2008 3:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually they make perfect sense...

if you look at them as H/9, BB/9, K/9 which is where I got those values. Here you go then:

25,160,179,88,125,22,10,8,4.45

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 9, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clement

25,145,145,64,112,12,8,8,4.25

by Just Rope Ball on Jan 8, 2008 4:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Matty C

26,128,119,73,103,18,7,11,4.96

I think we're going to see some of the same tendencies from Clement this season that we saw from Kip this year, though not quite as pronounced. Good stuff at times, poor control, and times when he's pitching well and then loses it in a hurry, due to the shoulder.

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 8, 2008 5:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

correction

"...that we saw from Kip this past year."

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 8, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are a genius!

But his ERA will be closer to 4.96 than 4.94!

by Nathan W on Jan 8, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clem

28,142 2/3,153,60,98,17,9,9,4.54

Slightly above M.O.R.

by glennrwordman on Jan 8, 2008 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

26,170,159,79,120,22,10,6,4.12

by AlberttheKing23 on Jan 8, 2008 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

12,65,75,30,45,14,2,6,6.25

I think that shoulder is shot.

by maddash1946 on Jan 8, 2008 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pirates may want Brad Thompson....

I don't know but here is the link...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/01/pirates-interes.html

Maybe they will take like 3 4th outfielders off our hands with 2 or 3 swingmen pitchers.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 5:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

im so glad that

mlb traderumors has stoked the coals of a possible Morris return or J Wilson..its been a few weeks..this time mentioning BThompson..not the puppy kicker..got this from mlb rumors..http://bellevillenewsdemocrat.typepad.com/viewfromthecheapseats/2008/01/the-babyfaced-a.html

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Jan 8, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ick

I sure hope this is just idle chatter. Matt Morris hasn't had a heart, or much stuff, since Kile's unfortunate demise. I sure don't want to pay his salary or Jack Wilson's, does anybody know Bay's contractual situation? As a fifth year player, is he arb eligible or did the Bucs buy out his arb years? THT says current salary of $3.5M.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 8, 2008 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

signed through '09

5.75M in 2008 and 7.5M in 2009

source

the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 8, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Someone should throw this up on the side bar

I won't every time I do people get post rage.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 5:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the rumor?

I hadnt seen a hot stove thing so I posted it here

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Jan 8, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No. I agree. I did the same thing right before you

I just mean someone should throw it up on the side bar because it is worthy to stand on it's own.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 8, 2008 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clement projections

25,150,140,70,130,15,12,8,4.50
g, ip, h, bb, so, hr, w,l, era

i think Matt will either be himself (and pitch well), or not pitch at all. i can't see him performing as a '06 Wells/Reyes. i've gone with the optimistic variant.but of course he should have some comeback struggles in the first couple of weeks (april through may).

"bury the dead, feed the survivors and rebuild the city" (marques do pombal, 1777)

by Johnny64 on Jan 8, 2008 6:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm optimisitc

27,144,149,66,121,15,11,10,4.85

by DiscoJer on Jan 8, 2008 6:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

nothing wrong with being positive

24,157.2,140,60,110,12,11,8,3.98

At least he's better than Esteban Yan

by jacksonian on Jan 8, 2008 8:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mr. Clement comes to the Lou

24,177,160,45,155,11,10,11,4.12

by mwinf12 on Jan 8, 2008 8:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

a thought about your #s

Unless you're building in a bunch of relief appearances into your projection, (and if you are just ignore me) you do realise that those numbers have him averaging over seven innings per start, right?

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 9, 2008 2:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chin Music

22,143,129,63,121,20,8,8,4.76

by chicagocardfan on Jan 8, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Guess

22,136,112,56,133,15,9,8,4.02

On a side note, I'll be in Ft Myers for Easter and noticed I'll be able to take in the Cards v Twins on Mar 24th. Chance to see Colby finishing off a strong spring. And I can be first in line for an Aaron Miles autograph!!

by ubeddie on Jan 8, 2008 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

a little feng shui-ish

31,181,191,81,141,21,11,11,4.41

by SethWestern on Jan 8, 2008 10:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

not feeling the love

although this was still a smart signing. 10,50,62,20,30,8,2,5,5.87

by azruavatar on Jan 8, 2008 10:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Matt Clement #s...the projections begin!!

32,192,190,80,160,20,9,12,4.20

For now, that is what I am thinking. I hope I'm off in the wrong direction on some of those. I REALLY hope I'm NOT off in the right direction.

stlfan

by stlfan on Jan 8, 2008 11:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here it goes...

I'll assume he's ready to go, and stays healthy.

30,192,196,64,162,21,12,13,4.63

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 8, 2008 11:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I also

went with him being healthy the entire year...(see the post above bobbyballgame's.)

stlfan

by stlfan on Jan 9, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

will pitch well...

just won't last the whole season

20,130,125,45,100,15,8,6,4.35

by capn crunch on Jan 8, 2008 11:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 2008

21,114,130,46,89,17,10,7,4.80

He's a first-half surprise: throws a couple of absolute gems and has a nice 6-1 stretch in June/early July. But also throws a few 3-inning Ponsonesque stinkers, misses a couple of starts with soreness and is finally shut down Aug. 15 for more surgery.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 8, 2008 11:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

23,155,140,117,56,20,9,9,4.43

by saladdays on Jan 9, 2008 12:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Give the guy his due...

I was scrolling through the thread that Larry linked above. Larry asked the community to forecast the Cardinals record for '07.

Here is what guayzimi had to say...

"W,L,RS,RA,GB/GA
78,84,705,773,-8

Luck swings both ways I'm afraid..."

Nobody could have forseen Carp missing the entire year, but the next lowest win total predicted by anyone was 86. Most people were predicting 90 wins.

The win predictions may look a little different this year...

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 9, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My Projection for Clement:

GS, IP,  H,BB,SO,HR, W,L, ERA



21,126,108,63,84,13,10,7,4.17

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 9, 2008 1:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement 08'

25,155,163,62,124,17,9,12,4.78

Not going to go deep, but will make it thru the season with a few games skipped for rest. Velocity will only improve slightly.

BUT....Will whip up on the Bear Whelps, the Houston Minute Maids and will lose mainly because of bad luck run support.

If we can't be good, can we at least be lucky?

by cardschinmusic on Jan 9, 2008 5:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement / Cairo

Clement:
27,155,130,75,165,25,12,12,4.21

Cairo:
Glad to see he signed on somewhere else. Love this little guy! hah

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/09/mariners-sign-miguel-cairo/

by ET90210 on Jan 9, 2008 9:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

OK, so I'm a pessimist...

12,87,89,45,69,8,4,6,5.04

I just don't think his arm is going to hold up. He'll look OK for a while, but will struggle with command/control until something goes sproing. A bit of bullpen work won't solve the problem, and he'll be on the 60-day by late July.

This said, I really like this signing. A line more like 25/150/140/60/140/8/15/6/3.50 (not comma-delimited so that it isn't confused with my "real" prediction) is only slightly less likely than my predicted one, depending on how his shoulder is. Cheap high-risk, high-return signings are 100% appropriate for a team in a position like the Cardinals; it only takes about two of them working out for the team to be a serious contender. The NL Central just isn't that strong.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 9, 2008 9:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

28,150,128,49,102,18,12,9,3.99

by crosseyedpirate on Jan 9, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Clement

11,101,20,10,101,10,11,01,1.01

OOPS sorry, had my computer do the projections for me and forgot it only speaks in binary.
Wait, did I see a 2 in there? Oh no I think I've got a virus.

by That's a Winner on Jan 9, 2008 10:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs