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The LaRussification of the Roster

Well folks, I think the verdict is in. While those of us looking for a fresh outlook going forward were somewhat encouraged by Tony's initial indication that he was willing to go with younger players and that Mo might not hew as closely to the 'veteran at all cost' line that Tony prefers...the facts are in.

Other than the Rule 5 draft, every move the Cardinals have made in this offseason has been straight out of the VAAC strategy employed by Tony.

Now, I say this as a fan of Tony's and a fan of his system. I think it worked great when the trade market was fruitfull (i.e. alot of productive veterans available for young talent), when the Cardinal farm system was particularly bare, and when the Cardinals were looking to shore up spots around their core producers in order to make deep playoff runs.

But this is a new day. We're on the downswing of the competition cycle. We've got numerous promising young players in the system that need to move up and get a shot at the majors. The trade market is decidely NOT conducive to veteran acquisitions.

Yet what have we seen? Russ Springer resigned. Joel Pinero signed. Cesar Isturiz and Jimenez signed. Matt Clement signed. And god help us, Aaron Miles resigned.

Each of these players (except for Pinero) is blocking a young player in our system who a) may be better than the signee now b) has greater upside offensively or defensively and c) is cheaper. Anthony Reyes, Brendon Ryan, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Chris Perez...all young players who should have major league positions locked in for the 08 season so their value can be established (and because they're likely to outperform the veterans signed in front of them).  

And now we hear the Cardinals are looking at Louis Gonzalez?  What other reason, other than VAAC, would the Cardinals be interested in a 40 year old, lefty-hitting, .750 OPS outfielder?  

This is a mistake. It is going to stunt the growth of these players. Some of them may be lost (to trade or waiver claims). We won't know whether they can play at the major league level and thus be able to evaluate our needs for the 09 season.

It's wrong. It hurts the Cardinals as an orgainzation. Yet it is clear who is in charge here. And Tony's style simply does not fit where the Cardinals are headed right now. He said he could adapt. So far, the only adapting I've seen is the organization's to his wishes. D.GOOCH
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Along those lines
I know the following is third hand and should be taken as such...

...but.

I buddy of mine knows Troy Percival well enough that he was able to get tickets at Wrigley from him and can get any ticket for Rays games. Anyway. I asked if Troy was thinking about returning to the Cards before the Rays came along. My buddy said that Troy said "Hell no" I asked why. Again, my buddy said that Troy hates Tony. Said he was an ass...also said Albert is an ass as well, which I could see. I asked why Troy doesn't like Tony and I was told that with Tony, more than any other manager in baseball, it's Tony's way or you can get the hell out.

Now I know this might come as a shock to you all thinking that Tony was open to new ideas and that he wasn't very opinionated.

Now of course this would be coming from the same guy who was able to talk Tony in't letting him start the last game of the year so he could say he started a game. So Tony has to be a little open to the players.

I guess what I am saying is...

...man this is going to be a long year. With Tony making sure the deck chairs are just so, as the ship is going under.

by Harknights on Jan 7, 2008 3:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Just the Opposite, sort of
Is what I heard from Craig Pacquette on the radio the other day. He said Tony was a big-time players' manager who was always very open and honest with the players. (However, I must note that he said this on the Radio, and we all know how people change their tunes in real life.) Also, it is important to note that it was Craig Pacquette who said it...another of those guys who wouldn't have been in the major leagues without Tony. He also stated very vaguely that only a couple of guys each year would have a problem with Tony and that they usually didn't stick around long if they did.
How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Jan 7, 2008 5:54 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

agreed
I agree but people must realize a lot of these palyers in MLB tend to be turds just like TLR can be a turd.  You get egos all over the place, it's professional sports so who cares.

by ICbirdfan on Jan 7, 2008 6:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but Tony liked Paquette...
Paquette is the perfect example of Tony's favoritism. Paquette wasn't anywhere near as bad as Miles (at least with the Cardinals), but the same sort of player - could play one position averagely, bad at the others; one dimensional as a hitter (in Miles case, average, in Paquette's, power).

by DiscoJer on Jan 7, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, it's no surprise
that Paquette and Miles like LaRussa. Mike Gallego probably asked him to be his kid's godfather.

Not that I put a whole lot of stock in what one guy (Percival) has to say about him either, although I'm glad the original poster shared the anecdote.

by plh903 on Jan 7, 2008 10:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pujols and Edmonds
have always seemed to have positive relationships with TLR.  They certainly weren't guys who were only hanging on because TLR gives veterans spots over youth.

I'm of the camp that says most athletes are jerks with egos and when you put that many jerks with egos in a room, some of them aren't going to like each other.  

by mtalken on Jan 11, 2008 10:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Regarding what people say on the radio -
didn't TLR say in the same radio interview that he would rather have young talent than veterans and that he was determined to improve his relationship with Rolen?  
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 7, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

RE: Each of these players is blocking a prospect
I really disagree with this comment. The only two young players that have a legit chance of making the roster out of spring training next season are Ryan and Rasmus, and for very good reasons outlined here, Rasmus most likely will go back to Memphis to start the season. Projecting any other players as being "blocked" is seriously overrating the talent in the Cardinals' system.

Springer is not blocking Perez. Perez isn't due until 2009, IF he can get his control problems straightened out. Perez wasn't even Memphis' closer last year--which is the role he's supposed to fill in St. Louis.

Miles is not blocking Hoffpauir. Hoffpauir is a possible flash-in the pan--after a nice minor league season, he stunk up winter ball (.236 BA, .368 OBP in 55 AB--which is closer to his 2006 season in Springfield). Hoffpauir only moved up to AAA halfway through last season--he's not the kind of prospect who can be rushed right to the majors without a major drop-off in performance. He needs time to adjust to each level. The fact Miles is on the roster doesn't change the fact that Hoffpauir would have spent most of the season in Memphis anyway, only to be called up when the rosters expand in August. His season very could well look like Ryan's last year, which is right about where his development should be.

Miles is back here because the middle infield situation is the biggest question mark on the team--young players and veterans. Will Kennedy recover some of his form, or completely bomb out? Will Ryan manage to perform over an entire season? Will Izturis have enough offense and will his defense recover? Of all the players in the middle infielders, Miles is the only guy who has a smudge of durability, in both performance and health. No, he's not very talented, but back-up plans usually aren't--talent usually are starters. And that's all Miles is--a back-up the manager knows in an unknown and iffy situation--despite the bitching and moaning that's erupted about a utility player's resigning. In the meantime, Miles gives LaRussa a decent switching-hitting singles pitch hitter who sometimes goes into offensive streaks.

Notice I didn't mention Jimenez. That's 'cause he's not blocking anybody--he's here on a minor league deal, and will be possibly cut if other people perform better than him. If players can't perform better than him, then they've got no value.

Clement is not blocking Reyes. Despite whatever people think of how Duncan handled Ironbrim, I think most would agree that Anthony would have been better served by keeping in Memphis rather than toss him to the wolves early in the season and then bounce him back and forth like a drunken yo-yo. Now that it's been revealed that Reyes still has an option, the Cardinals need to take advantage of that and try to get Reyes back on track. Throwing him out there in the majors under the same pitching coach with whom he struggled last season is probably the worst way to do so. Also, Clement is a reclamation project, designed more as a back-up plan to Mulder than to Reyes--there's an equal possibility that Mulder may done. A healthy Clement--who had more than 6 months more rehab than Mulder did--can take some of the edge off the uncertainty of who's going to be in the rotation.

Taking this season as a time for assessment of assets is a correct approach, but rushing some prospects ahead of their schedule or doing them more harm to their development are not proper assessments. What the Cardinals need to do is avoid long-term contracts to anybody but major players (not the Rowands of the world), protect the scant talent in the system from ill-advised trades, sort out exactly what they have in young players who already have made the transition (Ankiel, Duncan, and to a smaller respect Ryan, who probably will be platooning at SS as much as the four outfielders will be platooning if he shows up to play), and allow some veterans to get healthy (Kennedy, Rolan). Right now, the Cardinals' roster has more question marks than it's probably had in more than 20 years, and it does not serve the franchise to either dump potential trade assets before they recover or ruin some decent but not great talent that could turn into serviceable players.

by Forsch31 on Jan 7, 2008 7:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sanity
I stand and applaud this post.

by Big Red on Jan 7, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sample size caveat
Great post, but worth pointing out that if Hoffpauir would have gone 3-for-4 in his next game he'd be hitting .305.

Hard to say anyone stunk up anything after only 55 at bats.

by airhad on Jan 7, 2008 11:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True...
Which is why I pointed out his 2006 Springfield numbers: .247 BA, .344 OBP in 392 AB. He had a breakthrough year last season, and played 55 games at Memphis (hitting .300 in 190 AB). He then went into a slump for winter ball, apparently allowing his plate discipline to slip (his 2007 OBP is his big selling point as a lead-off hitter), which is worrisome. I think he'll be a decent 2B one day, but his winter ball performance served as a reminder about what kind of prospect he is--he's going to need time to mature what skill he has, and playing utility in St. Louis isn't going to do it. It'll actually set Hoffpauir's development back. He's still at least a year away before a roster spot out of spring training.

by Forsch31 on Jan 7, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

His plate discipline didn't slip...
He still walked 12 times in 67 PA's (~18%), vs 11% at AA and 13% at AAA in '07.  It was his complete inability to get an extra base hit combined with a .254 BABIP that killed him this winter.  It's scary that he also had a .264 BABIP in springfield in '06, with an ~11% LD%, so his winter performance may not be far out of line.

However, in '07 he had a ~19% LD rate in springfield with a .359 BABIP, and an ~18% LD rate in memphis w/a .325 BABIP.  Those are excellent LD rates and the BABIP is only slightly high (for a MLB BABIP; I don't know what a typical AA/AAA BABIP should be).  He rarely strikes out so if he maintains those LD rates he should hit for average.

Anyway you're definitely right that it won't hurt anything for him to spend half a season at AAA.  We'll know a lot more about his true potential (and martinez's) by mid-season.

the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 8, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Over at first inning
Chris Constancio ran league averages for the minors around mid season last year. His Memphis numbers are right in line with PCL average BABIP.

by azruavatar on Jan 8, 2008 12:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you've linked me to that before ;)
bookmarked it this time, thanks.
the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 8, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Another great point...
This exchange is further proof of why VEB is such a great place. Living in Chicago I'd love to find folks like you to have a beer with while talking baseball.

Do you know anything about his defense? Even heresay or thirdhand observation? Seems to me that his plate discipline is very strong - if he's posting a .344 OBP with only a .247 BA in an off season.

by airhad on Jan 8, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Can I get an amen?!
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 7, 2008 11:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

for forschie that is...
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 8, 2008 1:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Think again
You're the first I've seen suggest that Perez won't be in the majors until 2009.  Most have him in the majors to start out with a good spring...even with all the waste we've signed.

Springer, Franklin, and Pinero are classic examples of "buy high."  

55 at bats doesn't prove anything.  About anything.

Durability?  I can find ya a guy who can play 162 games.  He picks up my trash.  Miles is horrible.  He doesn't belong on any major league roster in any capacity.

Reyes has nothing to prove in Memphis.  He's got plenty to prove in the major leagues.  And there's no reason not to let him do it.

Oh wait.  Except for who our manager is.  D.GOOCH

Cardinals, Cardinals, Cardinals!

by GOOCH24 on Jan 8, 2008 12:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Gonazlez URL?
Please point me to a current leader on Luis Gonzalez in specific, cant find one newer than 11/07.

I think, no matter what the numbers say about the declining results re: aging relievers, that Springer "earned" his return contract with his performance in 07. The notion that middle relief is a flip the coin and get it cheap position is wrong. He might put the team on his back for a couple of months if there are injuries in the pen. Kinnys set-back might hurt so bad if Springer comes back true to 07 form. He didnt break the bank.

Izturis, and now Miles, are the real unpardonable sins, we have them both for one year of Eckstein money. Defense is improved while offense takes a dive. Maybe Jose O can breathe some new life into Izturis?  

Ryan will get a shot in ST, hope hes up for it.

We watched Perez pitch all last summmer, I personally dont want him anywhere but Memphis. Garcia was a different story at Spgfld, he looks like hes about one step away from MLB IF he can get healthy by June or so.

Some guys just dont look good in red.

by cardschinmusic on Jan 8, 2008 5:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

flip the coin and get it cheap
is exactly how the cards have filled middle relief the last several years ---- and it has been a very successful strategy. franklin, wainwright, hancock, kinney, brad thompson, wellemeyer, troy percival, al reyes ---- all were brought up thru the system or picked up for cheap off the scrap heap. the guys they paid the most money for ---ricky rincon and braden looper --- are among the least successful pitchers.

it's not as if the cards had a lot of better ways to spend their money this off-season, and the contracts are short-term ---- so there's no great harm. but it's not necessary to spend a lot of money for middle relief.

by lboros on Jan 8, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Point taken...
I was thinking in terms of middle men that have been rewarded with better, but still reasonable return contracts, based on the previous years success. Seems more clubs are willing to pay middle relievers a little more for the promise of continued performance these days than in the past. In comparison to starter and closer contracts, they certainly can be considered cheap.

Rincon baffled me completely (the Oakland connection?) Looper is harder to put the bang for buck yardstick on with the aberration of being a starter in 07, tho his 06 relief numbers looked pretty good based on filling the role he was signed for.

If we can't be good, can we at least be lucky?

by cardschinmusic on Jan 9, 2008 6:59 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ryan
ryan is the only one i feel that is wrongly blocked.  i think izturis a pretty worthless player. i am not a huge fan of ryan but he should easily be able to equal or exceed izturis for a fraction of the cost.

perez just isnt ready yet...6.3bb/9 needs to improve.  saying springer is blocking him is implying that springer sucks.  i dont think springer will be as good as last year, but he wont be the worst guy in the pen either.

hoffpauir isnt blocked by miles, he is 'blocked' by kennedy.  at this point i think he's better off getting regular at bats so he's either starting in AAA or starting in the majors, and i dont think he's quite ready to start in the majors.   he needs to get some big league at bats this year though.  as forsch31 said, jiminez isnt blocking anyone.  heis on a minor league deal.  if he plays well and makes the squad its because he earned it and hoffpauir and/or ryan didnt.

i dont think clement is blocking anyone either.  i have significant doubts that mulder and carp will log meaningful innings this year.  even so, if reyes pitches like he is capable of pitching, he will be in the rotation.  you can argue that duncan may have ruined him, but thats a different issue than being blocked.

i havent seen enough to indicate moz is in tony's pocket.  i hate the izturis acquisition, but the rest of the stuff doesnt necessarily stink of tony.

by dmb60614 on Jan 7, 2008 8:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Miles...
That move certainly "stink of Tony"  Larry, in one of his posts the other day, went as far to say that Tony demanded him back.

I agree with the general consensus here though, Ryan is probably the only guy who is being "blocked"  Everyone else probably needs at least a little more seasoning, and if Rasmus tears it up he's on the team.

Hell, the 5th starter is probably up for grabs...

Wain
Clement
Looper
Pineiro
Reyes/Mulder/Thompson/Wellemeyer/Parisi/Boggs/Garcia

Now it take a hell of a spring from one of those latter guys, but I don't think it's out of the question.  Not completely anyway.

Hopefully Miles is the only time Mo is cornered by Tony.  I was starting to come on board with where I thought he was heading.  We'll see.

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 7, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't Count out Blake Hawksworth
I figure Reyes is headed to Memphis this year to get his confidence back or whatever. If so, the competition for fifth starter until Mulder returns is between Thompson, Wellemeyer, and the  youth brigade. Parisi and Boggs should pitch the season at AAA, but I could see Garcia skipping the level and becoming that lefty swing-man Strauss alludes to the Cards seeking.

If Hawksworth can keep the ball in the park during ST and keep up the GB and K rates he showed towards the end of last season, I could see him beating out Thompson for a spot on the 25-man. Not sure where Wellemeyer fits into the plans.

by liam on Jan 7, 2008 11:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Miles and Tony....
I had a problem with Larry's painting of how Miles wound back up on the roster, which is why I took pains to outline my view about it in my initial post. I'm not surprised that Tony asked to get Miles back and got him back--that area needed some stability, and it's not surprising that the manager asked to get a familiar utility player back in case it all fell apart. What I'm most surprised with is the attitude that Mo should do whatever he wants despite his manager's requests and wishes. The worst thing the Cardinals can have is have a GM and a manager who refuse to work together.

Of the 5th starters you listed, Garcia doesn't have a shot. He's coming off an injury that ended his AA season early last season. Gotta make sure that arm is okay.

by Forsch31 on Jan 7, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Screw stability
I don't care if a player can be stable-ly replacement level at more than replacement cost. There's simply no justification for having Miles on the roster after the acquisition of Izturis and Jimenez. Instead, the team is precluding themselves from finding out more about the development and potential of players like Ryan and Hoffpauir.

by azruavatar on Jan 8, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What's the downside to
those guys? In Ryan's case, would him flopping be so-so defense and a sub-.300 OBP? In Hoffpauir's case would it be a .230 EQA and limited defensive value?

We just paid almost $5M to guarantee that type of performance. It's mind-boggling.

by plh903 on Jan 8, 2008 12:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

miles
i see miles as sort of further bungling of the izturis situation.  miles and ryan were already on the roster when izturis was signed, and both of them are better/cheaper than izturis.  re-signing miles was perplexing, but it wasnt the worst decision.  miles will earn his money.  his presence even makes it easier to do what needs to be done...cut izturis in ST.  i think izturis and his $3MM is a much bigger obstacle for ryan than miles.  izturis has the 'we paid him so we should play him' factor.  

by dmb60614 on Jan 8, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

MO on FoxSports Midwest tonight
Given college football's national championship game was tonight, I doubt few caught the Cards baseball show that ran on FoxSports Midwest tonight.  They aired portions of an interview with Mozeliak.  He said they are in the market for a "veteran bat" and want to get one on the roster "somehow".  Where exactly, pray tell, would the push for another "veteran bat" have originated with?  What exactly are Rolen, Pujols, Kennedy, Spiezio, LaRue?  Tell us again MO about how you are "your own man".  When the elephant gets his nose under the tent, eventually you are displaced from the tent.  Be careful MO.  Hold the line with having thrown TLR the ridiculous Miles bone.  We now have no viable backup SS on the 25 man roster.  That means 150 games of Izturis unless he's injured or implodes.  A garbage veteran bat for the OF displaces a younger player who might actually have an upside like Ludwick or Brian Barton.  Mo, Just say NO.

by jjray on Jan 8, 2008 1:57 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

There will be many, many times that Moz
has to bite his lip and make a move he doesn't want to make, as long as TLR has the owner's ear and maintains his long-established ways.  And it's the price he'll have to pay for getting one of the 30 best (and hardest) jobs in baseball.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 8, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he can bite his lip ...
... or he can enter into guerrilla warfare with TLR.   Luhnow also has the owner's ear.  In fact, Luhnow survived a guerrilla war with Walt.  How do the players prepare for tribal counsel?  Form alliances.  I'd pay to see a Mo / Luhnow v. TLR / D. Duncan smack down.  What leverage exactly does TLR have if DeWitt were to side with Mo and Luhnow on a player personnel decision?  All he can do is leave.  Big deal.  One of these days DeWitt will wake up and realize that the fans of St. Louis never really warmed to Tony.  Whitey, yeah, Tony ... just lukewarm.

But it would take large stones to make such a play.  Does Mozeliak have them?  If not, I don't want to hear this "I my own man" garbage.  Just admit that you do the best job you can for the team without upseting Mr. LaRussa.

by jjray on Jan 8, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ditto
I have heard this also. The Cards are searching for a veteran bat and a lefty swingman. There are no roster spots available, so are these guys coming via trade? The middle infield is already crowded, Speizio and Barden are already around to back up 1st and 3rd. The outfield is 5 deep...It would have to be an outfielder, but that means one of the current ones has to go away. No room for 6. As for the lefty swingman, Are they just trying to get about 16 guys and keep the best 12?

As for Miles: this guy got a 40% raise!!!! Who were we bidding against? He makes about what Hoff,Ryan,Jimenez,and Barden do combined. Is he really any better than any of them? I understand he was signed to be a backup, but he had the 2nd most at-bats to Pujols on the roster last year. Miles received a $400,000 raise for an average to below average performance. How many of you even make $400,000 in a year, but the better question is: How many of you EVER get a 40% raise. I am tired of hearing DeWitt cry poverty and then waste money on a guy like this.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Jan 8, 2008 9:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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