The White Sox have Thome, Dye, Konerko.  The last two are about to become 10-5 players within the next two years, so you can't just trade them anywhere which makes it harder to get value.  All are on the wrong side of 30 and will probably have skills that start to diminish in the next 3-4 seasons.  Thome also has an injury history and is already showing signs of slowing down.  They are the cornerstone of the ballclub along with Buehrle -- who is more of a #2 pitcher instead of an ace.  

They've traded away their second best pitcher (Garland) for a 33 year old SS coming off a career year, traded minor league talent for Carlos Quentin, who hasn't proven anything yet, and now moved your top three A and AA prospects for Swisher.  Swisher either plays LF displacing Quentin, or CF displacing Jerry Owens your leadoff hitter.  In CF he hurts the outfield defense tremendously since neither he, Quentin, or Dye have much speed.  You say they're 2 years removed from a championship, but look how they won that championship -- great pitching and a timely offense that could create runs with speed at the top of the order and mashers in the middle.  This team is shaping up to be the inverse of that, station-to-station baseball waiting for the big fly, with not as much pitching depth and not near as good a bullpen even after overpaying for Scott Linebrink.

Now lets break down the division:

Minnesota: The Twins open a new ballpark this year, have one pitcher with a foot out the door (Santana), one with an uncertain future (Liriano), and just traded away another for young outfield talent (Garza).  They lost Torii Hunter but replaced his bat with Delmon Young -- didn't replace his glove.  They have Morneau and Mauer under control for a few more seasons before they'll have to make a decision on them.  In short, the Twins should be competitive in the future as they have a strong farm system and good young talent that they may be able to hold onto if attendance is better at the new ballpark.

Detroit: They have a great team going into 2008, they traded most of their top prospects to acquire one solid SS (Renteria) and one keystone franchise piece (Cabrera).  They have 5 key players that probably won't be around in 3 years however (Sheffield, Granderson, Pudge, Ordonez, and Rogers)  Verlander is a stud, but the rest of the pitching staff and bullpen have a lot of questions, and Verlander will require a max contract when he becomes a free agent.

Cleveland: Like Detroit, great chance to make a run in 2008, but quite a few questions in the 2 or 3 years after that.  Sabathia is a free agent after next season and will require max money.  Martinez, Hafner, Sizemore, Carmona, and Peralta are all going to start getting expensive in the next 3 or 4 years via arbitration or free agency.  They still have a good to great farm system, but the current Indian team will probably see a major makeover in the next 2 or 3 seasons unless they have a major increase in payroll from being 23rd in the league last year, when no Indian player made more than $10 million.

Kansas City:  Good young talent (Gordon, Butler, DeJesus, Teahen, Pena Jr.) coupled with solid free agent signings (Meche, Guillen) will give the Royals a chance to compete for the next couple of years.  In my mind they need one more solid pitcher in their rotation to become legitimate contenders.  They have good pitching talent in the minors, but many of those farmhands haven't panned out lately (Zach Greinke, please stand up).  If any of them do I expect the Royals to be a solid contender in a couple of years unless they make a really bad trade or signing.

Looking at this division, does it make sense for the White Sox to corrupt their farm system to put together a team that's going to struggle to win the wild card in this division?  You have 2 playoff teams (Tigers & Indians), one team loaded for a rebound year (Twins) and one really young team that never keeps its talent when they reach free agency (KC).  This division will be the best in baseball until 2010 or 2011.  After that, the Twins will have to make a decision on the M&M boys, as well as Liriano and Delmon Young, Detroit will no longer have Sheffield, Rogers, and Pudge, and have Guillen and Ordonez in their late thirties hogging payroll needed to sign Cabrera and Verlander to long term deals, and Cleveland will either have to double it's payroll to keep who they currently have or let some of it's talent go.  As the franchise is currently being run Thome will be retired, Dye and Konerko will be either gone or untradeable for good talent, Pierzinski will be in his second career as a bar bouncer, and the farm system will have been depleted enough to keep it from replenishing those players with good talent.  It would be better to sell fairly high on those players, cut payroll, and be in a position to sign or trade for some of the lucrative free agents coming available in the next couple of years.

In truth, the White Sox are in a similar situation as the Cardinals, with a better pitching staff and short one future HOF player.  After next year the Cards would be 2 years removed from a title, so should they trade off their three best minor league pitchers (Garcia, Boggs, et al) and their second best pitcher (Wainwright) for a 33 year old SS making big $$$ and an .800 OPS switch hitter who plays four positions?  Not to mention that the Sox don't have a prospect near as touted as Colby Rasmus waiting in the wings.  

The stupid part of this deal is that the Sox aren't going to win with or without him anytime soon in that division. They should be doing what Beane is doing.

But in a vacuum, this is the sort of future for present talent swap that you'd likely see. DLR is a ways away without a third pitch, and Gio is a great psopect. They both are, and Swicher is a .300 EQA hitter with a good contract, career shape and projections, and defense. Plus, he'll take advantage of the Cell.

Also, Swisher walks a lot more and strikes out less than Duncan.  He's also played 3 full seasons in the big leagues so teams basically know what to expect.  Duncan has a nice OPS, but really has only played about one full, healthy season at the big league level.

In my mind, if they're going to trade Duncan it has to be a nearly lopsided deal in the Cardinals favor, meaning we'd need to get a #2 starter or a young starting SS out of the deal.  Either that or three monster prospects.  Since he is the only good trading chip that they have, they can't make a move that doesn't benefit the ballclub in the immediate future.

I just picked out AZ because he is the most statistically knowlegeable person I know, and he really does appreciate these Swisher-type hitters.  He is the champion of the rate-statistic.  I was not belittling him in any way.  I just meant that he is an astute character who measures players first and foremost by OPS, rate stats, etc....  Swisher fits his mold well as a hitter.