community projection: rick ankiel
round 2 of the tournament begins today; results are in the post directly below this one.
i finally got a chance to read the outstanding series alex belth posted over at Bronx Banter last week. it's about Ray Negron, whose official title is "special adviser to Mr. Steinbrenner" but whom alex more aptly describes as a gypsy. long posts, but highly recommended:
today's community projection ought to be interesting. i really urge you to jot down your figures before you scroll through those that have already been posted; go straight from your gut. give me your best guess as to ankiel's final 2008 totals in these 7 categories:AB,R,HR,RBI, AVG,OBP,SLG
and please comma-delimit as shown above (ie, no spaces). out of curiosity, i decided i'd add ankiel's actual major-league stats last year to his estimate major-league equivalents from memphis the first 4 months of the year. here's how that line looks:
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| MLE | 399 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 24 | 20 | .236 | .279 | .469 | ||
| actual stats | 172 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 13 | .285 | .328 | .535 | ||
| TOTAL | 571 | 143 | 23 | 4 | 35 | 33 | .250 | .296 | .489 |
i'll post the projection results on thursday.
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Comments
Ank...
Good, but not great....792 OPS. This will go along with outstanding right field defense including 15 outfield assists.
Slick Rick
Returning a little to the feast or famine like the minors.
Ankiel - 2008
444,74,18,71,.265,.305,.452
by TenRingsAndCounting on Jan 29, 2008 8:31 AM EST reply actions
Ankiel - 2008
I sincerely hope I'm wrong and he's better than this.
Ankiel
I see him getting a lot of AB's since he hits lefties decent (i.e. won't platoon much) and doesn't walk much. Will probably score some runs hitting in the 2 hole which is where I project him hit in the lineup. That's almost a straight line projection on homers with a 1/3 reduction from last year.
Ank...
I'd like to, but I can't bring myself to be too bullish. That low-OBP is gonna haunt him.
Slug it, buddy
by Beware the Molinas on Jan 29, 2008 9:12 AM EST reply actions
TLR's favorite kid
500,60,25,85,.270,.336,.488
Bullish, but he's my favorite player...
AB,R,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
by SethWestern on Jan 29, 2008 9:13 AM EST reply actions
Guardedly optimistic here
I think he's for real, and I would expect his walk rate to improve some, although it's never going to be Pujolsian. There are two important questions. First, will he suffer a sprained psyche some time during the season? The line above presumes the answer is no, but with Ank it's hard to be sure. Second, what effects will the supporting cast have on him?
Jeff Francoeur circa 2006
I wonder if he isn't Ankiel's best comparison in terms of skillset. . .
Bondsian Year
slick rick....
479,88,26,88,.275,.329,.535
peace.
very tough
426,66,17,63,.264,.312,.473
ankiel's numbers
you have to love ankiel's potential. dude's got a high ceiling. he's gonna hit some bombs, but you've gotta count on some inconsistency. he'll get up in the first inning and get fooled and look stupid, then he'll come back in the fourth and hit a 450-footer. but one thing is for sure...he'll never look bad gunning out aramis ramirez from the right field corner.
Call me a dreamer
520,92,32,86,.290,.337,.548
the legend can only grow
Solid numbers...
546,81,29,90,.265,.353,.505
i have to say that i am bit worried that ankiel will not make it through the year. last season was his first full one since his rookie pitching season. if he stays healthy i think he will continue to progress with his strike zone judgment.
looking at everyone elses predictions...
I don't think a .350 OBP
walk rate
math error
so updated line for ankiel:
546,81,29,90,.265,.322,.505
i wonder
475,75,23,65,.260,.310,.495
Without peeking at others...
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jan 29, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions
Forgot to add
Barton
Duncan/Ludwick
Albert
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
Kennedy/Miles (ugh)
Pitcher
Izturis/Ryan
I would probably flip Ryan and Miles against Lefties.
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Jan 29, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Here's mine
When I started reading the comments, I thought I was going to be way on the high side. Still, this is probably an optimistic projection. (Hey 82special, I promise I didn't peek before I made mine.)
i am hoping others are right...
He's the Natural
475,95,30,115,.283,.317,.511
by Red in Chicago on Jan 29, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions
Cards depth chart
- Shows Skip Schumaker as #1 in RF with Ank #1 in CF. Seems to me that the Rickster's future is in right with Colby (who is nowhere in sight) being nearly ready. IF you are going to start Schumaker (which I would not) then I think he should play CF.
- Anthony Reyes is listed as the #5 starter. We can only hope he at least gets a chance. Throw the 4-seamer and the change, kid. Give up on the curve and learn a slider...
- Miles is the second choice at both 2B and SS with Ryan in 3rd place (Memphis, I guess).
depth
I'm guessing Ryan will start in AAA, and get called up if someone goes to the DL for infield, rasmus for outfield, especially if it's a lefty, I can't see the cards having 4/5ths of the outfielders leftys.
st. anky
i'm not optimistic about ankiel reaching an .800 OPS or a .300 OBP. he'll wow people with a few tape-measure HRs and play solid defense, but i don't see him improving his rates from last season when exposed to a full season of major-league pitching. if this were the case, batting him in the 2-hole instead of duncan or someone else would really hurt the cards' offense. (see my comments in the lineup diary.)
here's to rick proving me wrong.
Ank
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 29, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions
Color me highly pessimistic
320,40,14,60,.240,.265,.445
I see him starting out slow (high tide/low tide theory) and never recovering.
mr. ankiel
Rosy outlook for Ankiel
Ricky comes back to Earth
420,63,17,58, .254,.321,.502
pitching stud rick ankiel
by barry whiteteeth on Jan 29, 2008 12:18 PM EST reply actions
Rick
Ank
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 29, 2008 1:33 PM EST reply actions
cue theme music
The walks will be there, as soon as pitchers learn that he:
- isn't a fluke,
- can hit the ball a long way,
- bats in front of cesar izturis :(
wild guess
it will be interesting to see how much ankiel plays against lefthanded pitchers, and how well he hits them... he's been great against lefties so far as a hitter, let's hope he keeps it up
Optimistic maybe, but he hits ahead of Albert
by joedick on Jan 29, 2008 2:24 PM EST reply actions
Here goes nothing....
by SWIN on Jan 29, 2008 2:25 PM EST reply actions
Whoops I didn't read . what I meant was
Just stay healthy
Ankiel Projection
I'm still not convinced he can hit ML pitching consistently, and TLR will end up mixing and matching his 5+ OF'ers as only he can do.
cardzfan24...
slick rick
Batting 2nd, I figure.
the natural's line
Juiced or not?
520,87,28,91,.285,.345,.512
by ErnieBroglio on Jan 29, 2008 4:20 PM EST reply actions
ANK08
461,69,22,71,.261,.303,.468
Slick Rick...
580,93,36,115,.274,.321,.552
Ricky makes the all-star team.
by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 29, 2008 5:13 PM EST reply actions
Projection
by AlberttheKing23 on Jan 29, 2008 5:22 PM EST reply actions
Pssst....
ankiel projections 2008
430,70,110,21,3,22,55,.256,.326,.472
correction
430,70,22,55,.256,.326,.472
i'm sorry i forgot to delete R,2B and 3B.
I am going out on a limb...
AB, R, Hr, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG
595, 106, 43, 121, 263, 369, 563
I won't be saying anything...just grinning :)
Rick places 4th in MVP voting.
Reminder
Runs and RBI
statmaster I'm not...take 3
including a grand slam off of Johan Santana at Shea...on a change up!
Haven't done this before so bear with me.
500, 88, 35, 84, .258,.324, .515.
Reminder
Being fairly optimistic...
510,80,31,110,.270,.310,.511
ugh
by wannabeGedman on Jan 29, 2008 7:33 PM EST reply actions
Hopefully
521,83,24,92,.271,.317,480
forget about the pitching rickie, give'm the homer
Ank...
by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 29, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
man
I wanna give Hal McRae some thanks after what molina did last year, i've never believed hitting instructors get the credit they deserve like pitching instructors do (even though i believe duncan's one of the best pitching coaches out there, the cards' pitching has been terrible)
480,70,29,79,.270,.330,.500
MLE
Better late than never
by That's a Winner on Jan 30, 2008 9:05 AM EST reply actions






















