community projection: rick ankiel
round 2 of the tournament begins today; results are in the post directly below this one.
i finally got a chance to read the outstanding series alex belth posted over at Bronx Banter last week. it's about Ray Negron, whose official title is "special adviser to Mr. Steinbrenner" but whom alex more aptly describes as a gypsy. long posts, but highly recommended:
today's community projection ought to be interesting. i really urge you to jot down your figures before you scroll through those that have already been posted; go straight from your gut. give me your best guess as to ankiel's final 2008 totals in these 7 categories:AB,R,HR,RBI, AVG,OBP,SLG
and please comma-delimit as shown above (ie, no spaces). out of curiosity, i decided i'd add ankiel's actual major-league stats last year to his estimate major-league equivalents from memphis the first 4 months of the year. here's how that line looks:
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| MLE | 399 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 24 | 20 | .236 | .279 | .469 | ||
| actual stats | 172 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 13 | .285 | .328 | .535 | ||
| TOTAL | 571 | 143 | 23 | 4 | 35 | 33 | .250 | .296 | .489 |
i'll post the projection results on thursday.
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132 comments
Comments
Ank...
Good, but not great....792 OPS. This will go along with outstanding right field defense including 15 outfield assists.
by cardzfanbub on
Jan 29, 2008 8:22 AM EST
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Slick Rick
Returning a little to the feast or famine like the minors.
by Just Rope Ball on
Jan 29, 2008 8:30 AM EST
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Ankiel - 2008
444,74,18,71,.265,.305,.452
by TenRingsAndCounting on
Jan 29, 2008 8:31 AM EST
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Ankiel - 2008
I sincerely hope I'm wrong and he's better than this.
by roarke on
Jan 29, 2008 8:42 AM EST
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ankiel
by _pistol_ on
Jan 29, 2008 8:47 AM EST
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Ankiel
I see him getting a lot of AB's since he hits lefties decent (i.e. won't platoon much) and doesn't walk much. Will probably score some runs hitting in the 2 hole which is where I project him hit in the lineup. That's almost a straight line projection on homers with a 1/3 reduction from last year.
by fourstick on
Jan 29, 2008 9:00 AM EST
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Ank...
I'd like to, but I can't bring myself to be too bullish. That low-OBP is gonna haunt him.
by svengali on
Jan 29, 2008 9:05 AM EST
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Slug it, buddy
by Beware the Molinas on
Jan 29, 2008 9:12 AM EST
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TLR's favorite kid
500,60,25,85,.270,.336,.488
by PhillyRedbird on
Jan 29, 2008 9:13 AM EST
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Bullish, but he's my favorite player...
AB,R,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
by SethWestern on
Jan 29, 2008 9:13 AM EST
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Guardedly optimistic here
I think he's for real, and I would expect his walk rate to improve some, although it's never going to be Pujolsian. There are two important questions. First, will he suffer a sprained psyche some time during the season? The line above presumes the answer is no, but with Ank it's hard to be sure. Second, what effects will the supporting cast have on him?
by StanTheManFan on
Jan 29, 2008 9:14 AM EST
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Ricky
500,90,25,80,.280,.320,.530
by StLHugo on
Jan 29, 2008 9:17 AM EST
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AB,R,HR,RBI, AVG,OBP,SLG
by azruavatar on
Jan 29, 2008 9:20 AM EST
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Jeff Francoeur circa 2006
I wonder if he isn't Ankiel's best comparison in terms of skillset. . .
by azruavatar on
Jan 29, 2008 10:24 AM EST
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I believe...
by Silent George on
Jan 29, 2008 9:20 AM EST
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Bondsian Year
by Titus Pullo on
Jan 29, 2008 9:43 AM EST
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One stat short
by StLHugo on
Jan 29, 2008 10:17 AM EST
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I hope I screw this up less than Molina's
432,72,34,27,81,.269,.319,.519
by Harknights on
Jan 29, 2008 9:33 AM EST
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and I did
by Harknights on
Jan 29, 2008 9:36 AM EST
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slick rick....
479,88,26,88,.275,.329,.535
peace.
by busch league on
Jan 29, 2008 9:36 AM EST
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Tough one
by arch support on
Jan 29, 2008 9:39 AM EST
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Projection:
by Titus Pullo on
Jan 29, 2008 9:40 AM EST
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very tough
426,66,17,63,.264,.312,.473
by beanocook on
Jan 29, 2008 9:42 AM EST
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ankiel's numbers
you have to love ankiel's potential. dude's got a high ceiling. he's gonna hit some bombs, but you've gotta count on some inconsistency. he'll get up in the first inning and get fooled and look stupid, then he'll come back in the fourth and hit a 450-footer. but one thing is for sure...he'll never look bad gunning out aramis ramirez from the right field corner.
by redbirds6 on
Jan 29, 2008 9:50 AM EST
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Projecting Ankiel
by 82Special on
Jan 29, 2008 9:51 AM EST
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rick-static
by erik on
Jan 29, 2008 9:52 AM EST
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Call me a dreamer
520,92,32,86,.290,.337,.548
by giveml on
Jan 29, 2008 9:54 AM EST
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the legend can only grow
by Hungry Jack on
Jan 29, 2008 10:00 AM EST
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Hopefully low
by cards13 on
Jan 29, 2008 10:02 AM EST
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Solid numbers...
546,81,29,90,.265,.353,.505
i have to say that i am bit worried that ankiel will not make it through the year. last season was his first full one since his rookie pitching season. if he stays healthy i think he will continue to progress with his strike zone judgment.
by indakind on
Jan 29, 2008 10:14 AM EST
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looking at everyone elses predictions...
by indakind on
Jan 29, 2008 11:07 AM EST
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I don't think a .350 OBP
by azruavatar on
Jan 29, 2008 11:31 AM EST
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walk rate
by indakind on
Jan 29, 2008 11:51 AM EST
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math error
so updated line for ankiel:
546,81,29,90,.265,.322,.505
by indakind on
Jan 29, 2008 11:58 AM EST
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i wonder
475,75,23,65,.260,.310,.495
by KoryWiu14 on
Jan 29, 2008 10:16 AM EST
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Without peeking at others...
by mikedallas23 on
Jan 29, 2008 10:21 AM EST
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Forgot to add
Barton
Duncan/Ludwick
Albert
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
Kennedy/Miles (ugh)
Pitcher
Izturis/Ryan
I would probably flip Ryan and Miles against Lefties.
by mikedallas23 on
Jan 29, 2008 10:38 AM EST
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Here's mine
When I started reading the comments, I thought I was going to be way on the high side. Still, this is probably an optimistic projection. (Hey 82special, I promise I didn't peek before I made mine.)
by ArkansasTravs on
Jan 29, 2008 10:49 AM EST
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no peeking?
by 82Special on
Jan 29, 2008 11:08 AM EST
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My take
586,75,31,103,.275,.315,.506
I really hope he will match!!
GO CARDS!!!
by SuperSeve on
Jan 29, 2008 11:06 AM EST
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Please do better
by tinstl on
Jan 29, 2008 11:07 AM EST
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i am hoping others are right...
by nomar34 on
Jan 29, 2008 11:08 AM EST
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He's the Natural
475,95,30,115,.283,.317,.511
by Red in Chicago on
Jan 29, 2008 11:10 AM EST
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Cards depth chart
- Shows Skip Schumaker as #1 in RF with Ank #1 in CF. Seems to me that the Rickster's future is in right with Colby (who is nowhere in sight) being nearly ready. IF you are going to start Schumaker (which I would not) then I think he should play CF.
- Anthony Reyes is listed as the #5 starter. We can only hope he at least gets a chance. Throw the 4-seamer and the change, kid. Give up on the curve and learn a slider...
- Miles is the second choice at both 2B and SS with Ryan in 3rd place (Memphis, I guess).
by giveml on
Jan 29, 2008 11:12 AM EST
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depth
I'm guessing Ryan will start in AAA, and get called up if someone goes to the DL for infield, rasmus for outfield, especially if it's a lefty, I can't see the cards having 4/5ths of the outfielders leftys.
by cardwash on
Jan 30, 2008 12:31 AM EST
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st. anky
i'm not optimistic about ankiel reaching an .800 OPS or a .300 OBP. he'll wow people with a few tape-measure HRs and play solid defense, but i don't see him improving his rates from last season when exposed to a full season of major-league pitching. if this were the case, batting him in the 2-hole instead of duncan or someone else would really hurt the cards' offense. (see my comments in the lineup diary.)
here's to rick proving me wrong.
by moboiler on
Jan 29, 2008 11:16 AM EST
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AB,R,HR,RBI, AVG,OBP,SLG
by cardzfan24 on
Jan 29, 2008 11:18 AM EST
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Ank
by redbirdnation8206 on
Jan 29, 2008 11:22 AM EST
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Color me highly pessimistic
320,40,14,60,.240,.265,.445
I see him starting out slow (high tide/low tide theory) and never recovering.
by joker24 on
Jan 29, 2008 11:22 AM EST
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Rose colored glasses
let the extra-base hits come early and often!
by baked mcbride on
Jan 29, 2008 11:33 AM EST
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ank
by bigcardsfan5 on
Jan 29, 2008 11:36 AM EST
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Much like last year
by DCGreg on
Jan 29, 2008 11:44 AM EST
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mr. ankiel
by amettrick on
Jan 29, 2008 11:51 AM EST
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Rosy outlook for Ankiel
by jomfa on
Jan 29, 2008 11:56 AM EST
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Ricky comes back to Earth
420,63,17,58, .254,.321,.502
by cardsrul on
Jan 29, 2008 12:06 PM EST
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pitching stud rick ankiel
by barry whiteteeth on
Jan 29, 2008 12:18 PM EST
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Stab in the dark
by Mr Redbird on
Jan 29, 2008 12:27 PM EST
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ankiel
by mstreeter06 on
Jan 29, 2008 12:45 PM EST
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u need to remove the spaces
by indakind on
Jan 29, 2008 12:48 PM EST
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oops
450,90,25,90,.265,.310,.515
by mstreeter06 on
Jan 29, 2008 12:58 PM EST
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Ankiel Projection
by Fred Head on
Jan 29, 2008 1:07 PM EST
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Rick
by Alxfritz on
Jan 29, 2008 1:14 PM EST
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Ank
by Hardcore Legend on
Jan 29, 2008 1:33 PM EST
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cue theme music
The walks will be there, as soon as pitchers learn that he:
- isn't a fluke,
- can hit the ball a long way,
- bats in front of cesar izturis :(
by SleepyCA on
Jan 29, 2008 1:38 PM EST
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wild guess
it will be interesting to see how much ankiel plays against lefthanded pitchers, and how well he hits them... he's been great against lefties so far as a hitter, let's hope he keeps it up
by mattlo on
Jan 29, 2008 1:45 PM EST
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Ankiel
488,77,28,83,.290,.330,.501
by chris13 on
Jan 29, 2008 2:21 PM EST
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I'll try this
Based on quick math....
by BigdJC on
Jan 29, 2008 2:22 PM EST
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Optimistic maybe, but he hits ahead of Albert
by joedick on
Jan 29, 2008 2:24 PM EST
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Here goes nothing....
by SWIN on
Jan 29, 2008 2:25 PM EST
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My best guess.
by Red Blazer on
Jan 29, 2008 2:47 PM EST
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Whoops I didn't read . what I meant was
by Red Blazer on
Jan 29, 2008 2:52 PM EST
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Just stay healthy
by stl3bagger on
Jan 29, 2008 2:52 PM EST
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Ankiel Projection
I'm still not convinced he can hit ML pitching consistently, and TLR will end up mixing and matching his 5+ OF'ers as only he can do.
by LuBrock20 on
Jan 29, 2008 2:53 PM EST
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ERA, WHIP, K, BB, Wins
by cardzfan24 on
Jan 29, 2008 3:09 PM EST
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cardzfan24...
by Johnny64 on
Jan 29, 2008 8:29 PM EST
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slick rick
Batting 2nd, I figure.
by montalban on
Jan 29, 2008 3:16 PM EST
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the natural's line
by gdm426 on
Jan 29, 2008 4:08 PM EST
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My best guess
by Merry CRasmus on
Jan 29, 2008 4:18 PM EST
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Juiced or not?
520,87,28,91,.285,.345,.512
by ErnieBroglio on
Jan 29, 2008 4:20 PM EST
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ANK08
461,69,22,71,.261,.303,.468
by Bivouac77 on
Jan 29, 2008 4:54 PM EST
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Slick Rick...
580,93,36,115,.274,.321,.552
Ricky makes the all-star team.
by bobbyballgame1 on
Jan 29, 2008 5:13 PM EST
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Projection
by AlberttheKing23 on
Jan 29, 2008 5:22 PM EST
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Pssst....
by cardsgirl95 on
Jan 29, 2008 6:52 PM EST
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ankiel projections 2008
430,70,110,21,3,22,55,.256,.326,.472
by Johnny64 on
Jan 29, 2008 5:37 PM EST
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correction
430,70,22,55,.256,.326,.472
i'm sorry i forgot to delete R,2B and 3B.
by Johnny64 on
Jan 29, 2008 5:40 PM EST
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I am going out on a limb...
AB, R, Hr, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG
595, 106, 43, 121, 263, 369, 563
I won't be saying anything...just grinning :)
Rick places 4th in MVP voting.
by mattnj on
Jan 29, 2008 6:26 PM EST
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to be crunched...
by mattnj on
Jan 29, 2008 6:36 PM EST
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Reminder
by poolplayer on
Jan 29, 2008 7:25 PM EST
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Runs and RBI
by nomar34 on
Jan 29, 2008 9:45 PM EST
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statmaster I'm not...take 3
including a grand slam off of Johan Santana at Shea...on a change up!
by mattnj on
Jan 29, 2008 11:22 PM EST
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Haven't done this before so bear with me.
500, 88, 35, 84, .258,.324, .515.
by easy on
Jan 29, 2008 7:19 PM EST
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Reminder
by poolplayer on
Jan 29, 2008 7:27 PM EST
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My Two Cents
by poolplayer on
Jan 29, 2008 7:22 PM EST
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Being fairly optimistic...
510,80,31,110,.270,.310,.511
by DiscoJer on
Jan 29, 2008 7:32 PM EST
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ugh
by wannabeGedman on
Jan 29, 2008 7:33 PM EST
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Let it Be!!!!
by chicagocardfan on
Jan 29, 2008 8:41 PM EST
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Hopefully
521,83,24,92,.271,.317,480
by Sect163 on
Jan 29, 2008 9:18 PM EST
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forget about the pitching rickie, give'm the homer
by mwinf12 on
Jan 29, 2008 9:41 PM EST
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Ank...
by bobbyballgame1 on
Jan 29, 2008 9:49 PM EST
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man
I wanna give Hal McRae some thanks after what molina did last year, i've never believed hitting instructors get the credit they deserve like pitching instructors do (even though i believe duncan's one of the best pitching coaches out there, the cards' pitching has been terrible)
480,70,29,79,.270,.330,.500
by cardwash on
Jan 30, 2008 12:43 AM EST
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MLE
by cardwash on
Jan 30, 2008 1:52 AM EST
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Ank
by Eckstreem on
Jan 30, 2008 8:39 AM EST
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Better late than never
by That's a Winner on
Jan 30, 2008 9:05 AM EST
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Projection
505,85,31,92,.260,.310,.490
by STLEdge on
Jan 30, 2008 3:07 PM EST
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PRO
500,100,40,90,.290,.360,.520
by GOOCH24 on
Jan 30, 2008 4:07 PM EST
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