community projection: rick ankiel
round 2 of the tournament begins today; results are in the post directly below this one.
i finally got a chance to read the outstanding series alex belth posted over at Bronx Banter last week. it's about Ray Negron, whose official title is "special adviser to Mr. Steinbrenner" but whom alex more aptly describes as a gypsy. long posts, but highly recommended:
today's community projection ought to be interesting. i really urge you to jot down your figures before you scroll through those that have already been posted; go straight from your gut. give me your best guess as to ankiel's final 2008 totals in these 7 categories:AB,R,HR,RBI, AVG,OBP,SLG
and please comma-delimit as shown above (ie, no spaces). out of curiosity, i decided i'd add ankiel's actual major-league stats last year to his estimate major-league equivalents from memphis the first 4 months of the year. here's how that line looks:
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| MLE | 399 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 24 | 20 | .236 | .279 | .469 | ||
| actual stats | 172 | 49 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 13 | .285 | .328 | .535 | ||
| TOTAL | 571 | 143 | 23 | 4 | 35 | 33 | .250 | .296 | .489 |
i'll post the projection results on thursday.
0 recs |
132 comments
Comments
Ank...
Good, but not great....792 OPS. This will go along with outstanding right field defense including 15 outfield assists.
by cardzfanbub on Jan 29, 2008 8:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Slick Rick
Returning a little to the feast or famine like the minors.
by Just Rope Ball on Jan 29, 2008 8:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel - 2008
444,74,18,71,.265,.305,.452
by TenRingsAndCounting on Jan 29, 2008 8:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel - 2008
I sincerely hope I'm wrong and he's better than this.
by roarke on Jan 29, 2008 8:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
ankiel
by _pistol_ on Jan 29, 2008 8:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel
I see him getting a lot of AB's since he hits lefties decent (i.e. won't platoon much) and doesn't walk much. Will probably score some runs hitting in the 2 hole which is where I project him hit in the lineup. That's almost a straight line projection on homers with a 1/3 reduction from last year.
by fourstick on Jan 29, 2008 9:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ank...
I'd like to, but I can't bring myself to be too bullish. That low-OBP is gonna haunt him.
by svengali on Jan 29, 2008 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Slug it, buddy
by Beware the Molinas on Jan 29, 2008 9:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
TLR's favorite kid
500,60,25,85,.270,.336,.488
by PhillyRedbird on Jan 29, 2008 9:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bullish, but he's my favorite player...
AB,R,HR,RBI,AVG,OBP,SLG
by SethWestern on Jan 29, 2008 9:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Guardedly optimistic here
I think he's for real, and I would expect his walk rate to improve some, although it's never going to be Pujolsian. There are two important questions. First, will he suffer a sprained psyche some time during the season? The line above presumes the answer is no, but with Ank it's hard to be sure. Second, what effects will the supporting cast have on him?
by StanTheManFan on Jan 29, 2008 9:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ricky
500,90,25,80,.280,.320,.530
by StLHugo on Jan 29, 2008 9:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
AB,R,HR,RBI, AVG,OBP,SLG
by azruavatar on Jan 29, 2008 9:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Jeff Francoeur circa 2006
I wonder if he isn't Ankiel's best comparison in terms of skillset. . .
by azruavatar on Jan 29, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe...
by Silent George on Jan 29, 2008 9:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bondsian Year
by Titus Pullo on Jan 29, 2008 9:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One stat short
by StLHugo on Jan 29, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope I screw this up less than Molina's
432,72,34,27,81,.269,.319,.519
by Harknights on Jan 29, 2008 9:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
and I did
by Harknights on Jan 29, 2008 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
slick rick....
479,88,26,88,.275,.329,.535
peace.
by busch league on Jan 29, 2008 9:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Tough one
by arch support on Jan 29, 2008 9:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Projection:
by Titus Pullo on Jan 29, 2008 9:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
very tough
426,66,17,63,.264,.312,.473
by beanocook on Jan 29, 2008 9:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
ankiel's numbers
you have to love ankiel's potential. dude's got a high ceiling. he's gonna hit some bombs, but you've gotta count on some inconsistency. he'll get up in the first inning and get fooled and look stupid, then he'll come back in the fourth and hit a 450-footer. but one thing is for sure...he'll never look bad gunning out aramis ramirez from the right field corner.
by redbirds6 on Jan 29, 2008 9:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Projecting Ankiel
by 82Special on Jan 29, 2008 9:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
rick-static
by erik on Jan 29, 2008 9:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Call me a dreamer
520,92,32,86,.290,.337,.548
by giveml on Jan 29, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
the legend can only grow
by Hungry Jack on Jan 29, 2008 10:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully low
by cards13 on Jan 29, 2008 10:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Solid numbers...
546,81,29,90,.265,.353,.505
i have to say that i am bit worried that ankiel will not make it through the year. last season was his first full one since his rookie pitching season. if he stays healthy i think he will continue to progress with his strike zone judgment.
by indakind on Jan 29, 2008 10:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
looking at everyone elses predictions...
by indakind on Jan 29, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think a .350 OBP
by azruavatar on Jan 29, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
walk rate
by indakind on Jan 29, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
math error
so updated line for ankiel:
546,81,29,90,.265,.322,.505
by indakind on Jan 29, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i wonder
475,75,23,65,.260,.310,.495
by KoryWiu14 on Jan 29, 2008 10:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Without peeking at others...
by mikedallas23 on Jan 29, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Forgot to add
Barton
Duncan/Ludwick
Albert
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
Kennedy/Miles (ugh)
Pitcher
Izturis/Ryan
I would probably flip Ryan and Miles against Lefties.
by mikedallas23 on Jan 29, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's mine
When I started reading the comments, I thought I was going to be way on the high side. Still, this is probably an optimistic projection. (Hey 82special, I promise I didn't peek before I made mine.)
by ArkansasTravs on Jan 29, 2008 10:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
no peeking?
by 82Special on Jan 29, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My take
586,75,31,103,.275,.315,.506
I really hope he will match!!
GO CARDS!!!
by SuperSeve on Jan 29, 2008 11:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Please do better
by tinstl on Jan 29, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
i am hoping others are right...
by nomar34 on Jan 29, 2008 11:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He's the Natural
475,95,30,115,.283,.317,.511
by Red in Chicago on Jan 29, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Cards depth chart
- Shows Skip Schumaker as #1 in RF with Ank #1 in CF. Seems to me that the Rickster's future is in right with Colby (who is nowhere in sight) being nearly ready. IF you are going to start Schumaker (which I would not) then I think he should play CF.
- Anthony Reyes is listed as the #5 starter. We can only hope he at least gets a chance. Throw the 4-seamer and the change, kid. Give up on the curve and learn a slider...
- Miles is the second choice at both 2B and SS with Ryan in 3rd place (Memphis, I guess).
by giveml on Jan 29, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
depth
I'm guessing Ryan will start in AAA, and get called up if someone goes to the DL for infield, rasmus for outfield, especially if it's a lefty, I can't see the cards having 4/5ths of the outfielders leftys.
by cardwash on Jan 30, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
st. anky
i'm not optimistic about ankiel reaching an .800 OPS or a .300 OBP. he'll wow people with a few tape-measure HRs and play solid defense, but i don't see him improving his rates from last season when exposed to a full season of major-league pitching. if this were the case, batting him in the 2-hole instead of duncan or someone else would really hurt the cards' offense. (see my comments in the lineup diary.)
here's to rick proving me wrong.
by moboiler on Jan 29, 2008 11:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
AB,R,HR,RBI, AVG,OBP,SLG
by cardzfan24 on Jan 29, 2008 11:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ank
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 29, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Color me highly pessimistic
320,40,14,60,.240,.265,.445
I see him starting out slow (high tide/low tide theory) and never recovering.
by joker24 on Jan 29, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rose colored glasses
let the extra-base hits come early and often!
by baked mcbride on Jan 29, 2008 11:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
ank
by bigcardsfan5 on Jan 29, 2008 11:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Much like last year
by DCGreg on Jan 29, 2008 11:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
mr. ankiel
by amettrick on Jan 29, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rosy outlook for Ankiel
by jomfa on Jan 29, 2008 11:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ricky comes back to Earth
420,63,17,58, .254,.321,.502
by cardsrul on Jan 29, 2008 12:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
pitching stud rick ankiel
by barry whiteteeth on Jan 29, 2008 12:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Stab in the dark
by Mr Redbird on Jan 29, 2008 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ankiel
by mstreeter06 on Jan 29, 2008 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
u need to remove the spaces
by indakind on Jan 29, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oops
450,90,25,90,.265,.310,.515
by mstreeter06 on Jan 29, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel Projection
by Fred Head on Jan 29, 2008 1:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rick
by Alxfritz on Jan 29, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ank
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 29, 2008 1:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
cue theme music
The walks will be there, as soon as pitchers learn that he:
- isn't a fluke,
- can hit the ball a long way,
- bats in front of cesar izturis :(
by SleepyCA on Jan 29, 2008 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
wild guess
it will be interesting to see how much ankiel plays against lefthanded pitchers, and how well he hits them... he's been great against lefties so far as a hitter, let's hope he keeps it up
by mattlo on Jan 29, 2008 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel
488,77,28,83,.290,.330,.501
by chris13 on Jan 29, 2008 2:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll try this
Based on quick math....
by BigdJC on Jan 29, 2008 2:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Optimistic maybe, but he hits ahead of Albert
by joedick on Jan 29, 2008 2:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Here goes nothing....
by SWIN on Jan 29, 2008 2:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My best guess.
by Red Blazer on Jan 29, 2008 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Whoops I didn't read . what I meant was
by Red Blazer on Jan 29, 2008 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just stay healthy
by stl3bagger on Jan 29, 2008 2:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel Projection
I'm still not convinced he can hit ML pitching consistently, and TLR will end up mixing and matching his 5+ OF'ers as only he can do.
by LuBrock20 on Jan 29, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ERA, WHIP, K, BB, Wins
by cardzfan24 on Jan 29, 2008 3:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
cardzfan24...
by Johnny64 on Jan 29, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
slick rick
Batting 2nd, I figure.
by montalban on Jan 29, 2008 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
the natural's line
by gdm426 on Jan 29, 2008 4:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
My best guess
by Merry CRasmus on Jan 29, 2008 4:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Juiced or not?
520,87,28,91,.285,.345,.512
by ErnieBroglio on Jan 29, 2008 4:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ANK08
461,69,22,71,.261,.303,.468
by Bivouac77 on Jan 29, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Slick Rick...
580,93,36,115,.274,.321,.552
Ricky makes the all-star team.
by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 29, 2008 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Projection
by AlberttheKing23 on Jan 29, 2008 5:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pssst....
by cardsgirl95 on Jan 29, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ankiel projections 2008
430,70,110,21,3,22,55,.256,.326,.472
by Johnny64 on Jan 29, 2008 5:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
correction
430,70,22,55,.256,.326,.472
i'm sorry i forgot to delete R,2B and 3B.
by Johnny64 on Jan 29, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am going out on a limb...
AB, R, Hr, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG
595, 106, 43, 121, 263, 369, 563
I won't be saying anything...just grinning :)
Rick places 4th in MVP voting.
by mattnj on Jan 29, 2008 6:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
to be crunched...
by mattnj on Jan 29, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reminder
by poolplayer on Jan 29, 2008 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Runs and RBI
by nomar34 on Jan 29, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
statmaster I'm not...take 3
including a grand slam off of Johan Santana at Shea...on a change up!
by mattnj on Jan 29, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Haven't done this before so bear with me.
500, 88, 35, 84, .258,.324, .515.
by easy on Jan 29, 2008 7:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Reminder
by poolplayer on Jan 29, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My Two Cents
by poolplayer on Jan 29, 2008 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Being fairly optimistic...
510,80,31,110,.270,.310,.511
by DiscoJer on Jan 29, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ugh
by wannabeGedman on Jan 29, 2008 7:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Let it Be!!!!
by chicagocardfan on Jan 29, 2008 8:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully
521,83,24,92,.271,.317,480
by Sect163 on Jan 29, 2008 9:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
forget about the pitching rickie, give'm the homer
by mwinf12 on Jan 29, 2008 9:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ank...
by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 29, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
man
I wanna give Hal McRae some thanks after what molina did last year, i've never believed hitting instructors get the credit they deserve like pitching instructors do (even though i believe duncan's one of the best pitching coaches out there, the cards' pitching has been terrible)
480,70,29,79,.270,.330,.500
by cardwash on Jan 30, 2008 12:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
MLE
by cardwash on Jan 30, 2008 1:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ank
by Eckstreem on Jan 30, 2008 8:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Better late than never
by That's a Winner on Jan 30, 2008 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Projection
505,85,31,92,.260,.310,.490
by STLEdge on Jan 30, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
PRO
500,100,40,90,.290,.360,.520
by GOOCH24 on Jan 30, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs



















