Hot Stove 1/29 - Johan Edition

by Alxfritz on Jan 29, 2008 4:26 PM EST

"The New York Mets have agreed to a trade for two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, giving up four prospects to acquire the left-handed ace of the Minnesota Twins, according to two high-ranking Twins officials with knowledge of the talks and a person close to Santana.

The deal is pending the Mets and Santana reaching agreement on a six- or seven-year contract extension and that Santana passes a physical; they have been granted a 48 to-72-hour window to do so. Santana has a no-trade clause that he will waive if agreement is reached on a contract extension.

The Mets paid a high price in prospects to land Santana, agreeing to send the Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey."

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Yikes

Johan will have some sick numbers next year in the NL. His first time around the NL will be killer on the opposition.

Good move for the Mets.

by TommyBruno on Jan 29, 2008 4:42 PM EST 0 recs

mets

i also like it for the mets. i dont care if it meant johan was still in the AL, i think the twins goofed by not taking the red sox or yanks offers (assuming they were actually offered). i think those offers were substantially better.

by dmb60614 on Jan 29, 2008 4:46 PM EST up 0 recs

If those are the prospects involved

Minnesota got swindled.

by azruavatar on Jan 29, 2008 4:54 PM EST 0 recs

Anyone still think we couldn't have matched it

without giving up Rasmus?

Of course, we couldn't have afforded to pay him the 6-7 y/$22-$25 M per extension.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 29, 2008 4:58 PM EST up 0 recs

Still couldn't have matched it

Guerra and Gomez are better than anyone else in our system, ZiPS likes Mulvey and Humber is meh. I don't think Anderson/Garcia/Perez/WhoeverElse is equal to that. Plus like you said, money matters anyway...

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Jan 29, 2008 5:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Rethinking....

Duncan/Anderson/Garcia/Perez/Ottavino probably would've beat it or at least put us in the discussion if the Twins really are this dumb. Gomez >> Dunc, Garcia=Mulvey, Anderson >andahalf Humber, Ottavino+Perez edges Guerra. No chance I'd do that deal and drop 150 mil, but I guess we could've pulled it off.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Jan 29, 2008 5:34 PM EST up 0 recs

I'm a little baffled because the

packages that were consistently rumored coming out of Boston and the Yankees look to be unquestionably better than this one from the Mets. For an organization that has so many problems developing hitters (compared to pitchers), why they would take Gomez over someone like Ellsbury strikes me as odd.

All that said, I don't understand the Twins thinking on this so I'm not sure what would have beat this offer if the Red Sox and Yankee packages didn't.

by azruavatar on Jan 29, 2008 5:16 PM EST up 0 recs

wow

I was expecting the trade to take place during the season.

This is good for the Mets.

by ICbirdfan on Jan 29, 2008 5:18 PM EST up 0 recs

If he's in the National League, the Twins

WON'T have to face him. He will not knock them out of a pennant race, a playoff game, a wild card spot. Now they only have to worry about facing him if they get to the World Series. This is great news for the Mets......

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 29, 2008 5:37 PM EST up 0 recs

I don't get this

What happens if Ellsbury or Hughes faces their former team "in division". If you are getting equal talent back then it really shouldn't matter, your guys are just as likely to make a difference in that critical situation as the guy you are dealing.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Jan 29, 2008 5:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Oh, I agree that it shouldn't matter.

But teams often won't trade within their own division-the Twins did not want to trade them to a team where they would have to face him regularly. I don't think it makes a lot of sense, but my Minnestoa sister says that's exactly why they preferred dealing him to the Mets.......I have no reason to not believe her.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 29, 2008 6:11 PM EST up 0 recs

I agree

it gives them a better chance at the Wild Card then if he was on the Yankees or Red Sox. I know many people will argue that that's a ridiculous school of thought, but when you have a team like Detroit ahead of you, and the Yankees or Red Sox will most likely be fighting you for a wild card title (should the Twins contend), you don't want either of them to have Johan over the next several years.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jan 29, 2008 10:14 PM EST up 0 recs

That's irrelevant

If you are trading Johan Santana, you aren't planning on being competitive for the next 1-3 years so it doesn't matter. In theory by "stealing" the Yanks/Sawx young talent you are damaging their future putting yourself in a better position to beat them when you have put yourself back into contention.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Jan 30, 2008 11:28 AM EST up 0 recs

I disagree

The Sox and Yanks are moneyball teams. They don't need talent to make moves. They'll be in contention for the next several years, not just 3-4. Most importantly, Santana will be with them for SEVEN years, not the next 1-3.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jan 30, 2008 12:52 PM EST up 0 recs

Hmmm....

If we are going to go 6-7 years 20+million...why don't we just wait until Sabathia hits the market?

I'd rather give up a 1st rounder than 4 of our top 10 prospects.

Although, Burnett on a 5 year 75-80M deal seems much more likely.

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 29, 2008 5:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Well

I think the situations are a bit different. The Sox package supposedly involved Lester and Ellsbury, the Yanks Cabrera and Hughes, and this one involves Gomez and Humber. Basically all of them have been a league-ready arm and bat. You don't think that Colby wouldn't have been the first name asked for by the Twinks? And if the BOB said no, then what? Jonathan Jay? I don't think so...Unless you count Duncan, the Cards don't have a young outfielder OR young arm they could afford to make as a centerpiece for this deal. The only way I see this working sans Rasmus is if Mozeliak was willing to dump about 5-7 of the few prospects they have (Boggs, Perez, Garcia, etc.), which would have been batshit-crazy.

I agree with that second part...that extension is going to be a ball-buster for the Mets in a few seasons. I'm glad the Cards didn't try to get in on something nutzo like this.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 29, 2008 5:26 PM EST up 0 recs

well...

... it was either Lester (+ Crisp) or Ellsbury. not both.

honestly, i'll bet a lot of this came down to Santana. he had a NTC, and there was a lot of speculation that he wanted to be in the NL. he could have essentially forced the Twins to trade him to the Mets rather than Boston or NYY, and i'll bet that's what happened.

plus, a lot of the Boston/NYY deals seemed to be those two competing with each other. once the Yanks pulled their deal off the table, Boston might've decided to lower their deal.

there's a lot of reasons why the Twins might not have been able to get the original NYY offer (which some said was Hughes/Kennedy/Cabrera + another piece).

i wonder where Crisp ends up now. Boston almost has to dump him. Marlins?

by kindred on Jan 29, 2008 10:43 PM EST up 0 recs

Hmm...

Its odd, but it seems like the main name going towards Minnesota is Gomez. That's wierd to me b/c it seems like Ellsbury would have been the main name going to the Twins had they worked with Boston. What is their fixation with speedy young leadoff hitter types? Seems like they could have done better, if this is the trade that ends up going down. Those three pitchers named all have warts: Humber hasn't done much and his clock is running out, Guerra is REALLY young, and Mulvey is at least intriguing (based on his numbers, I don't know much else).

I'm not the expert that erik or azru are, but this seems like a "get quantity" deal for the Mets.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 29, 2008 5:16 PM EST 0 recs

Ryan howard

acording to jayson stark he wants A Rod money? Stark says:

The Phillies renewed Howard at $900,000 last year--precisely the same amount Pujols got from the Cardinals the year before he was eligible for arbitration. Next up, the Phillies will no doubt offer Howard a long-term deal that mirrors the seven-year, $100 million contract Pujols signed with the Cardinals in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

That might sound reasonable from afar. But there is no chance --zero--that the reaction to that offer...is going to sound anything like: Where do we sign?

A-Rod is more what this particular family has in mind.

Sorry sont see howard as in this ball park at all..

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Jan 29, 2008 6:13 PM EST 0 recs

If he turns that down

He'd be an idiot. He's right, the Phillies did him a tremendous disservice by keeping him in the minors for so long, but that's the game. Hate the game, and all.

There is no reason for the Phillies to lock up Howard. They already control him through the end of his peak years. He won't be be a free agent until his age 32 season and is likely going to follow the mo vaughn career path. 7Y/100M is way too much even for a 28yo 1B and if the Phillies offer it he needs to jump on it and then kiss their feet for offering way too much.

by SleepyCA on Jan 29, 2008 6:34 PM EST up 0 recs

Maybe

Maybe he's bitter. The Phils camped out on him when he was more than ready due to Thome blocking his position.

He was very vocal about play me or trade me. They did probably lose him one or two years of potential ernings over his career.

by RedbirdRay on Jan 29, 2008 8:42 PM EST up 0 recs

this deal makes billy beane

look even more like a genius. the mets gave up far less then what the dbax gave up for haren. wowza.

I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be.

by erik on Jan 29, 2008 6:16 PM EST 0 recs

agreed

Gomez and Gonzalez are relatively analogous players. Brett Anderson doesn't have the upside of Guerra necessarily but he's closer to the majors. The Mets include two pitchers (Humber and Mulvey) that profile towards the back of the rotation in the AL much like the Dbacks did (Eveland, Smith).

Yet on top of that the A's got plus-plus power in Chris Carter and another outfielder Cunningham whose close to the majors and could be an everyday player in his own right. I'm just shocked at how little the Twins got in return.

by azruavatar on Jan 29, 2008 6:42 PM EST up 0 recs

Doesn't that make sense though?

Haren is both excellent and relatively cheap. Santana is the best but will be paid 22 mil a year. Haren should have returned a greater haul than Santana for that reason alone.

The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 29, 2008 6:42 PM EST up 0 recs

That's what I thought too.

But I am still surprised that Johan only netted the Twinkies four prospects.

by cardsgirl95 on Jan 29, 2008 6:48 PM EST up 0 recs

This makes the Mariners GM

look like a complete ass if the Bedard deal goes through. Carlos Gomez is talented but is nowhere close to Jones as a player.

The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 29, 2008 6:53 PM EST up 0 recs

Um......he is a complete ass.

At least if you listen to Dave at USSMariner.....

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 29, 2008 7:04 PM EST up 0 recs

That's not accurate

Dave doesn't agree with his player evaluation but always goes out of his way to relate that Bavasi is extremely personable and good at managing individuals within the organization.

by azruavatar on Jan 29, 2008 7:12 PM EST up 0 recs

I disagree...

The M's have good outfield prospects besides Jones and Bedard would make their rotation a top 5 staff in the American League. They'd have a staff that could compete in the AL West with Anaheim for the next couple of seasons. If King Felix could stay healthy they have the second best 1-2 punch in the AL at that point behind Cleveland with Sabathia and Carmona.

Felix Hernandez
Erik Bedard
Jarrod Washburn
Carlos Silva
Miguel Batista

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 29, 2008 7:17 PM EST up 0 recs

The Ms have one decent prospect

besides Jones in their outfield but no one even close to his caliber. The problem with moving Jones for Bedard is it has a cascade effect and they lose something like 20 runs in terms of outfield defense. Their "top 5 rotation" isn't going to get them past the fact that their defense is bad and their hitting is just mediocre.

by azruavatar on Jan 29, 2008 7:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Agreed...

The haul should have been greater for Haren, and should be greater for Bedard.

Santana is better than both but you either have to pony up 7yr, 150M+ to retain or just let him walk.

A 7yr contract for a pitcher is a MASSIVE risk no matter who it is.

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Jan 29, 2008 9:56 PM EST up 0 recs

I'm hoping this isn't true,

I live in Minnesota and the Twins are my second team. I agree with Azruavatar that the rumored deals with the Yanks and Red Sox would have been far better deals. The Sox were willing to part with Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie with one of their better young pitchers thrown in. It would have filled two big holes in the field for them and added to their young pitching corps. The Yanks offered Cabrera, Hughes plus. Don't understand this deal.

by easy on Jan 29, 2008 7:26 PM EST 0 recs

accordong to ESPN

who has had the USA today guy i think that broke the story and Keith law on says that this was the 4th best rumored deal...the 4th..

glad im not a twins fan

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punchinjudy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Jan 29, 2008 10:17 PM EST up 0 recs

Call me crazy

but I never saw why Jacoby Ellsbury was ever considered good enough to be a centerpiece in a deal for Johan Santana. He seems like a decent player, but in my opinion, he is grossly overrated right now because of his performance in the postseason. He is a good defensive player, he has average on base skills, and little power.

Am I missing something? Gomez has more upside than Ellsbury, and some of these pitchers are def upside guys instead if MLB ready talent, but if one of these guys makes it huge, this deal was ok.

All the talk calling this deal awful makes me think it will turn out better than any of us think.

The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 30, 2008 7:21 AM EST up 0 recs

Well

I'm of the same opinion, the guys upside is Johnny Damon. That said, Lowrie is probably on the same level as Gomez in my book, Masterson/Bowden have bigger upsides than Mulvey/Humber. The Twinkies shouldn't be trading for a bunch of 3/4/5 starter prospects.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Jan 30, 2008 10:08 AM EST up 0 recs

Nevermind

Masterson/Bowden are 3 closer/3 starters... Still, Ellsbury/Lowrie easily beats Gomez/Guerra with room to spare.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Jan 30, 2008 10:10 AM EST up 0 recs

I disagree

Guerra is too young to know for certain at this point, but Gomez is 21, two years younger than Ellsbury and has better skills in some areas already.

Gomez could have similar on base skills while def projecting to hit for more power and playing better defense and possibly stealing 50 bases at an excellent success rate. Damon is Ellsbury's greatest upside potential to me, not Gomez. Actually, Ellsbury will probably never hit for as much power as Damon.

My point is, this isn't an awful deal, and it isn't several grades lower than the Red Sox offer. The offer the Twins should have accepted is any deal involving Phil Hughes.

The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 30, 2008 10:35 AM EST up 0 recs

Right

Ellsbury is ready now. There's no projection in having him being a major league regular right now. His upside is not as high, but he's a better prospect because there's faaaar less risk.

(Gomez will not be playing better D, Taco-by Bell-sbury is a great CF'er)

Lowrie is a LOT better than Guerra. Lowrie is borderline ready now as well. He hit around .298/.393/.503 in AA/AAA last year. If he's even passable at SS he's got tremendous value.

For sake, Mulvey/Humber equals Masterson/Bowden.

So Ellsbury > Gomez, Lowrie >> Guerra, MulveyHumber=MastersonBowden. The Sawx offer if actually tabled was much better.

That said yes the Phil Hughes offer is what they should've taken...

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Jan 30, 2008 11:18 AM EST up 0 recs

Good point

I didn't realize that Lowrie was that good. My main point remains though, the Mets offer isn't as awful as people make it out to be, and that Gomez is a legit prospect who could make some serious noise in 2009 and maybe this year. I have very little doubt that Gomez will be a better all around player than Ellsbury in a year.

The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 30, 2008 12:17 PM EST up 0 recs

I think you are radically overestimating

where Gomez is in terms of his current skillset. He's been rushed through the system and is overmatched against more advanced pitchers in the minors right now much less the majors. Ellsbury may not have flashy power numbers but he does everything else well and plays excellent defense.

There's a very real chance that Gomez isn't ever better than Ellsbury much less next year.

by azruavatar on Jan 30, 2008 1:45 PM EST up 0 recs

Anyone read the Los Mets

post on BR the other day (later updated to include Venezuela and Mexico). The 2007 Mets had become one of the Top 10 teams all-time with At-bats and IP by latin born ballplayers. For 2008, they've replaced Glavine with Santana, removed Shawn Green and Paul Lo Duca (thus giving Endy Chavez and Castro more at-bats) and will have Castillo at 2B for a whole season.

I used to just say it jokingly that Omar Minaya would trade David Wright for Manny Ramirez straight up if he got the chance. Now, I'm not sure it's much of a joke.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 29, 2008 8:44 PM EST 0 recs

THANK GOODNESS

Thank goodness none of these stud pitchers (Haren/Santana) are coming to the NL Central. Our lineup is going to look much less than fierce against the Ted Lillys of the world...and we don't have to face Santana/Haren 4-6 times a season.

Thank goodness.

stlfan

by stlfan on Jan 29, 2008 10:36 PM EST 0 recs

Those deals mean

we may actually face those guys more rather than less. Sure its not the same as if they were in our division, but we will play the Mets and D-Backs more than the Twins and A's.

The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 30, 2008 10:41 AM EST up 0 recs

A lesson to learn

Not to say we should have gutted our farm system or blew a ton of dough on Santana, but... the Cards need to stay involved in these talks a little longer because you never know what could materialize. This trade absolutely sucked for the Twins. The return on the Tejada trade would have been better than this lukewarm return. Now, I'm not saying that Mo didn't inquire, but, geez, man, I sure hope we are doing some follow ups on some of these deals and not letting the media and bigger market teams scare us away from the get go. I'm speechless. This was the worst trade since the Mulder for Haren/Calero/Barton fleecing. Good God I hate Mark Mulder so much.

by RonGant on Jan 30, 2008 3:02 AM EST 0 recs

Mets are in...

Correction, this makes Omar Minaya look more like a genuis. When the As actually win something someday, then Beane can be annointed for doing something other than moving pieces around the board that have upside.

The Cardinals never had a prayer of landing Santana. Ever. We couldnt resign him even if we had the prospect package.

Plus I dont think the Yankees deal falling thru had to do with anything other than them wanting to keep Hughes (and Kennedy), he may BE the next Santana...and cheap as everyone here knows.

The Twins dont care who they face during the season, they would have traded within the league if they could have. The Yanks pulled back. The Sox have all the ingredients back for another WS in 08, with Ellsbury to boot.

Bottom line, the Twins couldnt sign Santana and took the best deal they could get irregardless of league status and the Mets are now in it!

If we can't be good, can we at least be lucky?

by cardschinmusic on Jan 30, 2008 6:23 AM EST 0 recs

You're right.

Billy Beane should just keep his mouth shut until he's won as many titles as Omar Minaya and the Mets.

And for the love of god, 'irregardless' is not a word.

"An informed citizenry is the enemy of the despot, the zealot, and Dan O'Neil.".

by the red baron on Jan 30, 2008 6:33 AM EST up 0 recs

red baron,

Love the new signature line.

by cardsgirl95 on Jan 30, 2008 6:46 AM EST up 0 recs

RE: My my......

Ya know, Minaya and Beane both seem to do be doing ok without any praise or criticism from anyone, us included. I accept the dogmatic versus critical response based on its source. The signature line IS good. Lead us Baron!

As for word study class...
------------------------------------------
The origin of irregardless is not known for certain, but the consensus among references is that it is a blend of irrespective and regardless, both of which are commonly accepted standard English words. By blending these words, an illogical word is created. "Since the prefix ir- means 'not' (as it does with irrespective), and the suffix -less means 'without,' irregardless is a double negative."[1]

Irregardless is primarily found in North America, most notably in Boston and surrounding areas, according to the Oxford English Dictionary, and was first acknowledged in 1912 by the Wentworth American Dialect Dictionary as originating from western Indiana. Barely a decade later, the usage dispute over irregardless was such that, in 1923, Literary Digest published an article titled "Is There Such a Word as Irregardless in the English Language?"[2]The term "irregardless" has begun to move towards acceptance because incorrect words or grammatical conventions are absorbed by the English language based on common usage. It is apparent that the word originated from regional deviations and was subsequently re-introduced to the wider English-speaking community, and thus the use of the term should be avoided if one takes the position that this word should not enter common use.

If we can't be good, can we at least be lucky?

by cardschinmusic on Jan 31, 2008 11:32 AM EST up 0 recs

ESPN

According to these jackals, the Mets are now lining up their rotation to take on the Yanks or Red Sox in the World Series. Why bother to play the regular season? They have already given the NL title to the Mets for the next 7 seasons.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Jan 30, 2008 9:43 AM EST 0 recs

That's what you get

for watching the
Eastern
Seaboard
Programing
Network

Did they follow it up with Duke highlights?

by That's a Winner on Jan 30, 2008 11:43 AM EST up 0 recs

The same Mets

that committed one of the biggest "El Foldos" since the '64 Phillies a year ago?

Santana helps, but a flop like last year's can screw up player confidence for a l-o-n-g time...

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jan 30, 2008 12:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Tigers in three?

Gonna be lots of holes in the team after 2008...

by SleepyCA on Jan 30, 2008 1:09 PM EST up 0 recs

That makes sense...

None of those guys will probably miss a start or have one pushed back or end up on the DL or have a funeral or have arm trouble or get the flu or have a wedding to attend or ...

sheesh. Media mayhem.

by RedbirdRay on Jan 30, 2008 4:02 PM EST up 0 recs

Not so much a trade as a free agent signing

The Mets have essentially traded these four prospects for the exclusive negotiating rights with the highest-paid pitcher to-be.

This deal is at least as much a free agent signing as it is a trade, evidenced by the three richest teams in baseball being the primary suitors. So, discussions of a comparable Cardinal trade package seem irrelevant, because there's no way the club would/could pony up the 6yr/$130mil contract ON TOP OF trading the prospects.

by bgodar on Jan 30, 2008 11:15 AM EST 0 recs

other moves?

Forgive me if someone else has proposed this before, but what about the Cardinals signing a guy like Brad Wilkerson to play LF? Then they could maybe package Duncan/Reyes and try to fill another need. Josh Barfield lost his 2B job to Asdrubal Cabrera last year in Cleveland, but he was a pretty good all-around player for the Padres in 2006. If the Tribe is sold on Cabrera, maybe we can pry Barfield from them to fill our 2B hole? We would get significantly younger at a key spot, and the right side of our infield would be pretty good defensively. Wilkerson is 31 (not too old), has leadoff experience and has had a decent OBP in the NL. I realize I might be overestimating the value of Reyes/Duncan, but it's at least worth a phone call....

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by cardsfanindenver on Jan 30, 2008 12:58 PM EST 0 recs