community projection: yadier molina

by lboros on Jan 22, 2008 9:22 AM EST in News Comment 91 comments

yadier molina was worth about 1.5 wins above bench last year, per win shares. according to the Hardball Times' net win shares calculator, the typical arb-eligible player with that level of production earned about $3.6m. molina's new contract will pay roughly $2m, $3m, and $4m over the next three years, so if he simply maintains his 2007 level of production, this is a very sound buy. if he improves his production, it's a tremendous buy --- and yadi stands a pretty good chance of improvement. he's still on the upswing of the aging curve, and his on-base skills took a big step forward last year; if he can maintain an obp in the .340 range and stay healthy for a full year, he'll be a 2-win player (worth over $5m on the arbitration market) or better. and that's without counting any of the intangibles --- the character stuff --- in molina's kit.

it could backfire if yadi goes back to the bad old days of sub-.300 obps and/or keeps getting hurt and loses some ability in the process. but the team is not on the hook for more than $5.5m in any single year, so this deal will never be a crippler even if molina regresses and loses his job to bryan anderson. it's also a very tradeable contract, so if anderson delivers on his promise and the cards want his bat in the lineup, yadi can always be moved.

not a bad deal for yadi either; he's a multimillionaire at age 25. further discussion of the deal in this diary.

seems like a fitting time to do a community projection for this guy. it'll be our first batter projection for 2008. gimme your best guess at yadi's final 2008 tally in the following categories:

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB

please remember to comma-delimit (no spaces). i'll put the results up on thursday.

here's a little piece of news, courtesy of erik manning: the cards' short-season A team at batavia has hired jeff albert as their hitting instructor. at about this time last year, albert (a frequent contributor to Baseball Analysts) broke down cardinal prospect john jay's swing at erik's request. good to have another friend of the site working in the organization.

tournament update is directly below.

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projection

430,35,110,8,55,50

No doubles or triples (triples!?!?) to factor in slugging?

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 22, 2008 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

510,56,135,12,72,59

That's based on a .265/.341/.422 line...but what do I know.

by Harknights on Jan 22, 2008 9:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I know

you shouldn't change answers on a test...but man mine are bad.

560 PA's for a catcher? Really?? Really?!?

by Harknights on Jan 22, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

Lets try 375,28,95,8,57,48

Here's to hopping my numbers are low and he has that breakout season at the plate we've been waiting for but I've got his steady improvement continuing.

by That's a Winner on Jan 22, 2008 9:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yadi

455,44,110,11,65,48

by jeff abs on Jan 22, 2008 9:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My projection...

400,42,114,10,55,40

280/350/405

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jan 22, 2008 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

molina

400,30,110,5,45,35

by Just Rope Ball on Jan 22, 2008 9:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

'08 yadi

390,39,105,8,54,49

larussa for mayor, pujols for president...

by redbirds6 on Jan 22, 2008 9:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A little regression, but not much

420,44,113,7,51,41

If he puts up numbers like these and continues to play his usual ferocious defense, he'll be an asset. I hope I'm low on the BB estimate; that's the one facet of his game that really needs improvement.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 22, 2008 10:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadier projection

420,45,120,13,50,43

"There is one word in America that says it all, and that one word is, 'You never know.'" Joaquin Andujar

by Big Mike on Jan 22, 2008 10:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yadi, yadi, yadi....

my prognostications for the youngest pup of the flying molina brothers.....

375,40,110,10,47,40

q.e.d.

by busch league on Jan 22, 2008 10:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadier

400,37,101,8,51,45

by sdelek on Jan 22, 2008 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Molina

369,37,94,8,44,39

by chuckb on Jan 22, 2008 10:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

460,38,125,8,52,46

by bertold213 on Jan 22, 2008 10:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

A healthy, solid year

415,40,108,9,50,45

by lightbulb on Jan 22, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

projection

410,44,108,7,50,71

I see LaRussa batting the pitcher 8th a lot & Yadi in the 7-spot -- getting walked a lot.

by chris13 on Jan 22, 2008 10:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Steady improvement

Yadi 2008:

370,32,96,9,46,45

A slight regression in BA is balanced by a better walk rate, and a heartening uptick in power makes Yadi easily worthy of his new contract. FWIW, I'll add:

Avg .260
OBP .340
Slg .395
OPS .735

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 22, 2008 10:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi 2008

385,34,103,7,50,40

by Nathan W on Jan 22, 2008 10:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yadi

426,35,122,8,52,36

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jan 22, 2008 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

412,38,112,8,46,35

by airhad on Jan 22, 2008 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My take on Yadi

450,63,131,10,31

I predict more or less a BA of .290 and an OBP of .360

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Jan 22, 2008 10:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Still improving...

393,40,106,8,45,39

more numbers:

127 - Games
450 - PA
20 - 2B's
150 - TB
.270 - AVG
.333 - OBP
.382 - SLG
.715 - OPS

by indakind on Jan 22, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi's first triple-double (hits-homers)

421,42,107,10,48,39

Who needs Antonetti? Give Luhniak a chance!

by guayzimi on Jan 22, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rate stats stay at '07 levels:

400,52,112,6,48,38

by ArkansasTravs on Jan 22, 2008 11:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

From the "No shit?" Dept.

Mulder unsure of return.
In other news, the world is round.

I am remain unenthused by Mr. Mulder. He makes a lot of money to play soft toss.

"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.

by bukowski on Jan 22, 2008 11:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm often disgusted

by his attitude towards everything. It's almost as if he is always saying "whatever happens, happens."

He will have made $25 M off the Cardinals by the end of this season (plus the $1.5 M buyout). So far, he's won 22 games.

Injuries happen and you can't 'fake it' through them but pardon me if I'm not thrilled at the prospect of him missing another 2 months and coming back only about 45% effective.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 22, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are pardoned

by flynn on Jan 22, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't blame Mulder

Blame the guy who gave $13M guaranteed to a pitcher coming off surgery for a torn cuff. Damnedest thing I ever seen...

by Hungry Jack on Jan 22, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

But the man should show a little better work ethic than he has. From what I've heard he just doesn't have the drive that some of these other injured pitchers have had to get back on the mound.

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 22, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ya Mo Be There

407,33,96,9,54,31

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Jan 22, 2008 11:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

400,35,106,10,50,35

with a line of .265/.330/.390

stlfan

last year, I was a little too high on him in some areas and a little too low in some. This year, I hope I'm low in a lot. :)

by stlfan on Jan 22, 2008 11:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

450,35,115,10,57,45

by cards13 on Jan 22, 2008 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi 08

modest improvement, in line with career averages.

385,35,100,8,50,40

by martin on Jan 22, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB

394,42,111,12,59,34

by saladdays on Jan 22, 2008 11:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB

400,36,105,8,42,35

by azruavatar on Jan 22, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB

428,37,117,9,53,44

by rjwillia on Jan 22, 2008 11:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

420,39,115,9,52,40

Overall a fairly optimistic line I think. It would think his BA and OBP would be about the same as last year (a hair lower actually), but with more at bats total. That more at-bats situation would lead to higher numbers in the counting stats.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 22, 2008 11:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My guess

414,38,113,8,54,38

by Merry CRasmus on Jan 22, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yads

I'll give this a shot....

405,46,110,7,58,38

by cardzfan52 on Jan 22, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Molina '08

Per AB numbers in '07 - .08/.27/.02/.11/.10

I estimated 410 AB in '08. +5 R/RBI lineup improvement adjustment, +5 H 'luck' adj based on balls hit in play avg and +5 BB rate improvement.

This yields;

410AB/40R/118H/7HR/51RBI/45BB

This is probably overly optimistic - I admit I might be in denial about the sharp dropoff in the level of talent on the team. they have been so very good these last 6-7 years, and last year they were so very bad - there has to be an improvement coming, right? Skip/Rasmus/Ludwick has to be better than Jimmy, Glaus better than Scotty and Kennedy can't be any worse.

by PhillyRedbird on Jan 22, 2008 12:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You need to comma delimit....

like this:

410,40,118,7,51,45

That was lboros can load them into a spreadsheet and compute a VEB prediction.

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 22, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"That way"

Goodness it's been a long damn day...

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 22, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yadi

402,58,115,9,62,44

by mdarshan on Jan 22, 2008 12:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Molina line

410,35,110,8,54,44

by DCGreg on Jan 22, 2008 1:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi Projection

389,31,103,8,51,37

by Fred Head on Jan 22, 2008 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi...

575,120,225,37,142,7

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Jan 22, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Um

Yadi will be quite the free swinger next year. Only 7 BB in nearly 600 ABs while crushing 37 HRs?

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 22, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

With

225 hits who needs to walk? Yadi, the next Ichiro only with power!!!

by That's a Winner on Jan 22, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

do you know something

about yadi's off-season training program? perhaps he's been working out with Brady Anderson?

I'd rather my sister become a prostitute than my brother become a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Jan 22, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just thought

it was time to throw a little levity into the discussion.

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Jan 22, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Look out Ted Williams

Yadi will just miss .400 with that performance.

by Hungry Jack on Jan 22, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yadi for MVP...

yesss !!

"bury the dead, feed the survivors and rebuild the city" (marques do pombal, 1777)

by Johnny64 on Jan 22, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yadi in 2008

482,52,124,7,48,36

by roarke on Jan 22, 2008 1:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

430,50,125,14,60,45

by fltfire on Jan 22, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Jadi

450,70,125,8,65,45

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Jan 22, 2008 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

My wife thinks he's cute.

400,55,135,10,66,55

"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on Jan 22, 2008 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

typo on ABs

Make it 460 if you feel like it lb, or just use these figures

460,55,135,10,66,55

"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck

by itsalemmon1019 on Jan 22, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my rose-colored predictions

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB
477,52,132,13,72,55

I'd rather my sister become a prostitute than my brother become a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Jan 22, 2008 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yadi

427,60,127,9,69,49

by Wizard24 on Jan 22, 2008 2:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

based on nothing.

480,60,132,8,55,37

Don't think a .729 OPS is too crazy (25 2B's).

the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 22, 2008 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi 2008

419,37,109,6,49,39

I don't see Yadi ever hitting much over .260 with his lack of foot speed, and he just doesn't have much of a power stroke, either. I think the Cards will struggle to score runs at the bottom of their lineup, which is why my RS & RBI totals are so low.

LB20

by LuBrock20 on Jan 22, 2008 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi '08

Don't expect any real improvement or backslide.

364,48,89,7,51,38

by Bivouac77 on Jan 22, 2008 2:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Molina Lines

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB

402,51,110,10,55,30

by STLEdge on Jan 22, 2008 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadier Molina=a MidYear lion

423,36,117,7,48,41

by Hungry Jack on Jan 22, 2008 3:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

About like last year...

Only a little more playing time

415,35,113,9,52,40

by DiscoJer on Jan 22, 2008 3:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bullish on Yadi...

430,50,140,16,65,50

Cardinals, Cardinals, Cardinals!

by GOOCH24 on Jan 22, 2008 3:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

390,32,115,7,52,40

Could this be the year Yadi finally passes 50 RBI? I think so!

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jan 22, 2008 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB
400,35,115,10,50,45

by StLHugo on Jan 22, 2008 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Aaron heilman's continuing nightmare

who is yadier molina? jeopardy, anyone?
420,55,105,7,60,40

At least he's better than Esteban Yan

by jacksonian on Jan 22, 2008 5:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi 2008 - What a bargain!

405,41,113,14,69,38

by TenRingsAndCounting on Jan 22, 2008 5:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi 08

419,52,117,11,61,47

by joedick on Jan 22, 2008 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

kid Yadi is happy

as there is more stability in the lineup, he could have (if healthy) a very good year.

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB
425,39,125,10,52,44

"bury the dead, feed the survivors and rebuild the city" (marques do pombal, 1777)

by Johnny64 on Jan 22, 2008 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You can never have too many catchers...

390,38,114,9,51,44

by Beware the Molinas on Jan 22, 2008 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yadi

422,32,108,7,45,42

by sdangler on Jan 22, 2008 7:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Molina's AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB

410,41,90,8,45,35

Yadi's a favorite of mine. Here's to hoping he can maintain something close to last year's line... or improve... I'd take that too.

by AndyB83 on Jan 22, 2008 7:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Molina Projection

400,35,115,9,50,39

jwilson

by taguchi on Jan 22, 2008 7:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Here goes nothing

441,48,117,11,51,39

by stl3bagger on Jan 22, 2008 8:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

2008 guesstimate for Molina

AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB

400,32,110,8,51,36

Good for about a .725 OPS, which I would take in a second with Yadi.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Jan 22, 2008 8:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

An estimation

405,36,118,9,50,40

A little down from last year, but I'm sure if he played about 130 games like he did in 06 he may tire late in the year.

I've witnessed about 9 of yadi's big league home runs, is he an inside the plate kind of hitter when it comes to his homers? I think most of his homers i've seen have come from pitches that were on the inside of the strikezone.

[i]Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)[/i]

by cardwash on Jan 22, 2008 8:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Quote me on it

417,34,113,12,58,44

Probably pick up some more RBI. I'd like to see this happen. With that stellar defense. Show them you earned it Yadi!

by Pujols Is A God on Jan 22, 2008 10:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

n/s

457,51,138,16,58,36

i think yadi has some pop in that bat that could come out this year (hence the higher homer total).

Albert Pujols stole my 1998 Ford Taurus.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 22, 2008 10:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Molina the III

460,55,125,9,64,40

by mwinf12 on Jan 23, 2008 12:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ya know

When I woke up this morning and saw that LaRussa said Kennedy would have little margin for error this year, I wanted to say something like "No Shit, he's got Aaron Miles in his back pocket".

Then TLR goes and one ups me and says that Kennedy last year was stealing playing time from Aaron.

In Tony's mind, Aaron is a full-time player.

I will be boxer briefs

by Hardcore Legend on Jan 23, 2008 12:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think

TLR is just having fun being a dick so far this year. He already came out and publicly bashed Rolen, and now he's doing the same for AK. For a guy who has always been so hush hush about everything, this sudden rush of putting down players seems uncharacteristic. I don't mind that he's saying what he thinks -- that can be a good thing -- but I'd rather him be more candid about actual play, numbers, and how the team does during the season than pesky, trivial things like missing the Winter Warmup.

Feels like Tony knows he has more power know and is loving it.

Or maybe it's all in my imagination . . .

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jan 23, 2008 2:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This offseason

appears to be Tony's "Fuck it! Lets go Five Blades!" moment.

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Jan 23, 2008 2:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bill Simmons

references are never appropriate.

"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.

by bukowski on Jan 23, 2008 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i like how

after spending 162 days not in first place, he finally realizes that "I just don't think we have that margin" (to play a guy with a .560 OPS every day). Way to see what everyone else saw last year, Tony. Unfortunately "won't find himself in the lineup quite as often" isn't "traded to japan", which would be preferable.

"My other option was to go hunting dogs and cats with Scott Rolen." - TLR

by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2008 2:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Since we're stuck with him for 2 more

years, I hope TLR takes this chip on his shoulder and converts it into some aggressive experimentation. He can work out his frustrations by ragging on AK and at the same time do what I want him to do, which is give some young guys a chance to play.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 23, 2008 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But He Won't

I don't think he means anything other than what he says: AK "stole" playing time from Aaron Miles. (Leaving aside the fact that it's the manager who determines who gets playing time, and TLR could've made changes any time he wanted to). I doubt he'll try young guys when most of the evidence suggest that's not his way.

As for Kennedy, I've been in work situations where the powers-that-be decide that you're not "their guy." Once that happens, it takes miracles to escape that designation.

by glennrwordman on Jan 23, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs