community projection: yadier molina
by lboros on Jan 22, 2008 9:22 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printyadier molina was worth about 1.5 wins above bench last year, per win shares. according to the Hardball Times' net win shares calculator, the typical arb-eligible player with that level of production earned about $3.6m. molina's new contract will pay roughly $2m, $3m, and $4m over the next three years, so if he simply maintains his 2007 level of production, this is a very sound buy. if he improves his production, it's a tremendous buy --- and yadi stands a pretty good chance of improvement. he's still on the upswing of the aging curve, and his on-base skills took a big step forward last year; if he can maintain an obp in the .340 range and stay healthy for a full year, he'll be a 2-win player (worth over $5m on the arbitration market) or better. and that's without counting any of the intangibles --- the character stuff --- in molina's kit.
it could backfire if yadi goes back to the bad old days of sub-.300 obps and/or keeps getting hurt and loses some ability in the process. but the team is not on the hook for more than $5.5m in any single year, so this deal will never be a crippler even if molina regresses and loses his job to bryan anderson. it's also a very tradeable contract, so if anderson delivers on his promise and the cards want his bat in the lineup, yadi can always be moved.
not a bad deal for yadi either; he's a multimillionaire at age 25. further discussion of the deal in this diary.
seems like a fitting time to do a community projection for this guy. it'll be our first batter projection for 2008. gimme your best guess at yadi's final 2008 tally in the following categories:
here's a little piece of news, courtesy of erik manning: the cards' short-season A team at batavia has hired jeff albert as their hitting instructor. at about this time last year, albert (a frequent contributor to Baseball Analysts) broke down cardinal prospect john jay's swing at erik's request. good to have another friend of the site working in the organization.
tournament update is directly below.
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projection
No doubles or triples (triples!?!?) to factor in slugging?
I know
560 PA's for a catcher? Really?? Really?!?
Yadi
Here's to hopping my numbers are low and he has that breakout season at the plate we've been waiting for but I've got his steady improvement continuing.
by That's a Winner on Jan 22, 2008 9:48 AM EST reply actions
A little regression, but not much
If he puts up numbers like these and continues to play his usual ferocious defense, he'll be an asset. I hope I'm low on the BB estimate; that's the one facet of his game that really needs improvement.
Yadier projection
yadi, yadi, yadi....
375,40,110,10,47,40
q.e.d.
projection
I see LaRussa batting the pitcher 8th a lot & Yadi in the 7-spot -- getting walked a lot.
Steady improvement
370,32,96,9,46,45
A slight regression in BA is balanced by a better walk rate, and a heartening uptick in power makes Yadi easily worthy of his new contract. FWIW, I'll add:
Avg .260
OBP .340
Slg .395
OPS .735
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 22, 2008 10:37 AM EST reply actions
Still improving...
more numbers:
127 - Games
450 - PA
20 - 2B's
150 - TB
.270 - AVG
.333 - OBP
.382 - SLG
.715 - OPS
Yadi's first triple-double (hits-homers)
From the "No shit?" Dept.
In other news, the world is round.
I am remain unenthused by Mr. Mulder. He makes a lot of money to play soft toss.
I'm often disgusted
He will have made $25 M off the Cardinals by the end of this season (plus the $1.5 M buyout). So far, he's won 22 games.
Injuries happen and you can't 'fake it' through them but pardon me if I'm not thrilled at the prospect of him missing another 2 months and coming back only about 45% effective.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 22, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Don't blame Mulder
Agreed...
Yadi
with a line of .265/.330/.390
stlfan
last year, I was a little too high on him in some areas and a little too low in some. This year, I hope I'm low in a lot. :)
Yadi 08
385,35,100,8,50,40
by martin on Jan 22, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply actions
Yadi
Overall a fairly optimistic line I think. It would think his BA and OBP would be about the same as last year (a hair lower actually), but with more at bats total. That more at-bats situation would lead to higher numbers in the counting stats.
by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 22, 2008 11:57 AM EST reply actions
Yads
405,46,110,7,58,38
by cardzfan52 on Jan 22, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions
Molina '08
I estimated 410 AB in '08. +5 R/RBI lineup improvement adjustment, +5 H 'luck' adj based on balls hit in play avg and +5 BB rate improvement.
This yields;
410AB/40R/118H/7HR/51RBI/45BB
This is probably overly optimistic - I admit I might be in denial about the sharp dropoff in the level of talent on the team. they have been so very good these last 6-7 years, and last year they were so very bad - there has to be an improvement coming, right? Skip/Rasmus/Ludwick has to be better than Jimmy, Glaus better than Scotty and Kennedy can't be any worse.
You need to comma delimit....
410,40,118,7,51,45
That was lboros can load them into a spreadsheet and compute a VEB prediction.
"That way"
Yadi...
Um
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 22, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
With
by That's a Winner on Jan 22, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
do you know something
I just thought
Look out Ted Williams
Yadi for MVP...
Yadi
400,55,135,10,66,55
typo on ABs
460,55,135,10,66,55
by itsalemmon1019 on Jan 22, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
my rose-colored predictions
477,52,132,13,72,55
based on nothing.
Don't think a .729 OPS is too crazy (25 2B's).
Yadi 2008
I don't see Yadi ever hitting much over .260 with his lack of foot speed, and he just doesn't have much of a power stroke, either. I think the Cards will struggle to score runs at the bottom of their lineup, which is why my RS & RBI totals are so low.
LB20
Yadi '08
364,48,89,7,51,38
Yadier Molina=a MidYear lion
Yadi
Could this be the year Yadi finally passes 50 RBI? I think so!
Aaron heilman's continuing nightmare
420,55,105,7,60,40
Yadi 2008 - What a bargain!
by TenRingsAndCounting on Jan 22, 2008 5:08 PM EST reply actions
kid Yadi is happy
AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB
425,39,125,10,52,44
You can never have too many catchers...
by Beware the Molinas on Jan 22, 2008 6:55 PM EST reply actions
Molina's AB,R,H,HR,RBI,BB
Yadi's a favorite of mine. Here's to hoping he can maintain something close to last year's line... or improve... I'd take that too.
2008 guesstimate for Molina
400,32,110,8,51,36
Good for about a .725 OPS, which I would take in a second with Yadi.
An estimation
A little down from last year, but I'm sure if he played about 130 games like he did in 06 he may tire late in the year.
I've witnessed about 9 of yadi's big league home runs, is he an inside the plate kind of hitter when it comes to his homers? I think most of his homers i've seen have come from pitches that were on the inside of the strikezone.
Quote me on it
Probably pick up some more RBI. I'd like to see this happen. With that stellar defense. Show them you earned it Yadi!
by Pujols Is A God on Jan 22, 2008 10:37 PM EST reply actions
n/s
i think yadi has some pop in that bat that could come out this year (hence the higher homer total).
by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 22, 2008 10:41 PM EST reply actions
Ya know
Then TLR goes and one ups me and says that Kennedy last year was stealing playing time from Aaron.
In Tony's mind, Aaron is a full-time player.
by Hardcore Legend on Jan 23, 2008 12:50 AM EST reply actions
I think
Feels like Tony knows he has more power know and is loving it.
Or maybe it's all in my imagination . . .
This offseason
Bill Simmons
i like how
Since we're stuck with him for 2 more
by MdRedbirdFreak on Jan 23, 2008 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
But He Won't
As for Kennedy, I've been in work situations where the powers-that-be decide that you're not "their guy." Once that happens, it takes miracles to escape that designation.
by glennrwordman on Jan 23, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
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