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2009 Free Agents

Dear Diary,

     Magic Mo seems to have done all he can this off-season and not a half bad job of it. But the FA list is almost done so I thought it would be a good time to look ahead to next off-season.

We should have money to spend, but what to spend it on. Below (If I did this right) is a list of 2009 Free agent lifted from MLBTR. He categorized them by position; the player's 2009 age is in parentheses.  If he saw someone as a possibility at more than one position he put them at both.

Some players will resign before next year and some will retire but there are some good names that could help the cards alot. Some of them will be on the trade market mid-season.

OH BOY Cesar Izturis is a FA, I've been wanting to get him since '04.

Star-divide

Catchers
Michael Barrett (32)
Johnny Estrada (33)
Kenji Johjima (33)
Jason Kendall (35) - club option for '09; vests with 110 games played in '08
Paul Lo Duca (37)
Ivan Rodriguez (37)
David Ross (32)
Jason Varitek (37)
Gregg Zaun (38) - $3.75MM vesting option for '09; vests with 160 games played in '08

First basemen
Ben Broussard (32)
Carlos Delgado (37) - $16MM mutual option for '09 with a $4MM buyout
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Jason Giambi (38) - $22MM club option for '09 with a $5MM buyout
Scott Hatteberg (39)
Kevin Millar (37)
Richie Sexson (34)
Mark Teixeira (29)

Second basemen
Mark Ellis (32)
Mark Grudzielanek (39)
Orlando Hudson (31)
Tadahito Iguchi (34)
Jeff Kent (41)
Felipe Lopez (29)
Mark Loretta (37)

Shortstops
Orlando Cabrera (34)
David Eckstein (34)
Adam Everett (32)
Rafael Furcal (31)
Cristian Guzman (31)
Cesar Izturis (29)
Felipe Lopez (29)
Edgar Renteria (33) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Juan Uribe (30)
Omar Vizquel (42) - $5.2MM club option for '09 with a $0.3MM buyout

Third basemen
Casey Blake (35)
Hank Blalock (28) - $6.2MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Joe Crede (31)
Nomar Garciaparra (35)
Wes Helms (33) - $3.75MM club option for '09
Chipper Jones (37) - $8-11MM vesting option for '09

Left fielders
Moises Alou (42)
Garret Anderson (37) - $14MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Milton Bradley (31)
Pat Burrell (32)
Carl Crawford (27) - $8.25MM club option for '09 with $2.5MM buyout
Adam Dunn (29)
Cliff Floyd (36) - $3MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Raul Ibanez (37)
Jacque Jones (34)
Jason Michaels (33) - $2.6MM club option for '09
Craig Monroe (32)
Jay Payton (36)
Wily Mo Pena (27) - $5MM club option or $2MM player option for '09
Manny Ramirez (37) - $20MM club option for '09
Juan Rivera (30)

Center fielders
Rocco Baldelli (27) - $6MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout
Jim Edmonds (39)
Jacque Jones (34)
Mark Kotsay (33)

Right fielders
Bobby Abreu (35)
Casey Blake (35)
Milton Bradley (31)
Brian Giles (38) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - $16.5MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout
Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Jacque Jones (34)

DHs
Milton Bradley (31)
Pat Burrell (32)
Adam Dunn (29)
Jason Giambi (38) - $22MM club option for '09 with $5MM buyout
Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout
Raul Ibanez (37)
Manny Ramirez (37) - $20MM club option for '09
Juan Rivera (30)
Frank Thomas (41) - $10MM option for '09; vests with 376 PAs in '08
Jim Thome (38) - $13MM club option for '09 with $3MM buyout
Jose Vidro (34) - vesting option for '09

Starting pitchers
A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season
Paul Byrd (38)
Ryan Dempster (32)
Jon Garland (29)
Tom Glavine (43)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Randy Johnson (45)
John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Esteban Loaiza (37) - $7.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.375MM buyout
Braden Looper (34)
Derek Lowe (36)
Greg Maddux (43)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Matt Morris (34) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $1MM buyout
Jamie Moyer (46)
Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout
Mike Mussina (40)
Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout
Oliver Perez (27)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Kenny Rogers (44)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Johan Santana (30)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30)
John Smoltz (42) - $12MM club option for '09
Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option
Woody Williams (42) - $6.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Randy Wolf (32)

Closers
Joe Borowski (38)
Ryan Dempster (32)
Brian Fuentes (33)
Eric Gagne (33)
Trevor Hoffman (41)
Jason Isringhausen (36)
Todd Jones (41)
Brad Lidge (32)
Joe Nathan (34)
Al Reyes (38)
Francisco Rodriguez (27)
Rafael Soriano (29)

Middle relievers
Doug Brocail (42) - club option for '09
Juan Cruz (28)
Alan Embree (39) - $3MM club option for '09
Scott Eyre (37)
Kyle Farnsworth (33)
Aaron Fultz (35)
Tom Gordon (41) - $4.5MM club option for '09 with a $1MM buyout
LaTroy Hawkins (36)
Matt Herges (39) - club option for '09
Bob Howry (35)
Steve Kline (36)
Brandon Lyon (29)
Damaso Marte (34) - $6MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Guillermo Mota (35)
Will Ohman (31)
Darren Oliver (38)
Juan Rincon (30)
Russ Springer (40)
Mike Stanton (42) - $2.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Mike Timlin (43)
Salomon Torres (37) - $3.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.3MM buyout
David Weathers (39)
Dan Wheeler (31)
Kerry Wood (32)

0 recs | Comment 22 comments

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Man
That's the class we have to choose from?  I'm sorry but I don't see anybody who can help us for the long term on this list. There are a couple of guys who could be impact players, but none of them will make it to free agency.  To bad.
Not a fan of Troy Glaus

by gibbyfan on Jan 22, 2008 1:09 PM EST   0 recs

I'm rooting
for Carl Crawford to make it to FA in 2010.  An OF of Rasmus, Ankiel, and Crawford would look fine to me.
The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 22, 2008 1:27 PM EST   0 recs

Starting Pitchers
The most ground we stand to gain is with starting pitchers, obviously.  Sabathia, Sheets, and Burnett are all pretty intriguing, especially if Sheets and Burnett can throw an injury free year in 08.  Sabathia may be on his way to NYY/BOS with Johan though.

Another outfielder could open up a trade from our OF depth for a young SS or SP.  Crawford's option will obviously be exercised, but Bradley after an injury free year or Adam Dunn could be interesting plays.  Pat Burrell as well.

No shortstops of note, but Adam Everett could be the best play here since he actually plays fantastic defense to complement his lack of offense, unlike Izturis who just lives on the reputation of great defense.  But who knows, Ryan might be more valuable than anyone on that list by 09.

by oquendo4manager on Jan 22, 2008 1:30 PM EST   0 recs

Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09
This one cannot come soon enough.  That buy-out is cheap.

by gonzostl on Jan 22, 2008 1:39 PM EST   0 recs

strong class
A really strong class especially at the closer position. It sucks that the closer position is so strong, it increases the chances that a team with a top 15 pick signs Izzy and denies us a hgih draft pick and gives as a supplemental one.

Brian Fuentes (33)
Eric Gagne (33)
Trevor Hoffman (41)
Jason Isringhausen (36)
Todd Jones (41)
Brad Lidge (32)
Joe Nathan (34)
Francisco Rodriguez (27)
Rafael Soriano (29)

Man, that's really impressive.

As for a true impact player. There are several that could push a team over the top, but not many long-term solutions for the cardinals. I would like see us make a run for Hudson or Furcal (if he bounces back)

by maurerdj on Jan 22, 2008 1:40 PM EST   0 recs

but also
it allows us to resign Izzy at a cheaper price if Perez isn't ready to fill his spot.
On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Jan 22, 2008 4:42 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

My wish list........
My wish list might not be realistic but I want Furcal, Ellis, Crawford and one of the top tier starting pitchers..........

If we signed even just two of the players I want I would be extremely happy but I don't see it happening..............

by Calhoun on Jan 22, 2008 1:56 PM EST   0 recs

being realistic....
First off the list is not that bad, there are many quality players on there, with that being said I highly doubt any of them will be wearing cardinal red come 2009.  Several of the best players have options for 09' already.  Unless a team is stupid they will either pick it up or trade him midseason, and as we have seen this past winter the cards do not have the trading chips to acquire that high end talent that many of us want.  I mean seriously, do any of us think Tampa Bay would be that stupid.  They will either get huge packages for crawford and Rocco, or if they keep them, they are still super cheap for the talent they provide.  Crawford will only cost 8.25 mill, that's a steal! (say good bye to renteria and Vlad too)

Secondly, we come to the guys that don't have options, specifically, Sabathia, Santana, and Sheets.  I expect that all three will be signed long term by the all star break, but if one was to make it to free agency it would be the same crap we hear every year.  That we made an offer but low balled em, hence he is now with the yankees or red sox.

So in conclusion, I think the best we could get from this would be some marginal infield help such as cabrerra or lopez. (there will be a huge bidding war for Furcal, which the cards will not win) and in pitching maybe the likes of Lowe or Garland, high end...Burnett opts out and we get em.  The market price has gone up so much that as long as Mulder is .500 they will pick up his option, plus tony will still be here to push for him.  One last note, Chris Perez will be the closer in the future, I bet they will pick up izzy to groom him for a year or so and then let em at it.

Sorry, just trying to be realistic

2/3rd's of the earth is covered by water, the other third is coverd by Jim Edmonds....when he's healthy...

by cardsphan04 on Jan 22, 2008 3:22 PM EST   0 recs

What type of dollars are you thinking for Furcal?
I kinda think he's might be a guy we'd overpay a bit for - which is pretty much what you have to do to get anything decent in free agency.  

He's a candidate for leadoff.  He plays a position of need, unless Martinez sets the world on fire and shows he can stick at shortstop.  He provides speed on the bases.  And he has a cannon arm that will allow you to position him anywhere.  After seeing Eckstein hovering around second base all year long, that would be a refreshing change.  

I'd think Furcal is someone they'd compete hard for.  Of all the names listed, he'd be the one I'd be most confident we'd overpay for.

by Merry CRasmus on Jan 22, 2008 5:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Let's break it all down in pieces....
Cards Positions of need in 2009: SP, 2B, SS, CL, RF/LF (assuming we trade Duncan which may offset one of the other needs)

1. SP: There are a ton of good options here even if Sabathia and Santana are already signed.  Burnett wanted to pitch here a few years ago, and with all the money off the books he could come in and help a lot.

'09 Rotation:
Carpenter
Burnett
Wainwright
Piniero
Reyes/Mulder/Clement

IMO -- that's pretty damn good for the money and one FA signing.

2. 2B: Kennedy should be gone regardless of how well he plays this season.  I would make a hard run for Felipe Lopez since he can play SS and 2B, would come fairly cheap, and adds some speed to the lineup.  I think you could easily pick him up for around 4 years $28 million after next season.  MUCH cheaper than Furcal and check out their numbers side by side

Furcal(30): .284/.349/.407 OPS+ 94 (career)
Lopez(28):  .258/.328/.396 OPS+ 89 (career)

Why in the hell would you pay twice as much for a guy who's two years older and has an almost identical OPS+?  Their stolen bases are almost equal the last two years as well.  I don't see the Cards needing a leadoff hitter as Rasmus should probably fill that role in 2009.

  1. SS: Signing Lopez would probably fill this role, unless Martinez proves he can do the job in ST.  If so, he plays here and Lopez moves to second and KAZAAM...we have much improved infield productivity for nearly the same price as Izturis' and Kennedy's combined salaries.  If not I think you play Lopez here and hope the Hoffpauir is the real deal at 2B.
  2. CL: Hopefully Jaime Garcia, otherwise another year of Izzy at $10 million wouldn't be terrible.  I'd rather not see them get into a long term deal with anyone in this spot with the live arms in the farm system.
  3. RF/LF:  The only guy I'd be interested in on that list is Dunn, and I'm not sure why we'd trade away Duncan (team-controlled and inexpensive) for an shitty outfielder that hits bombs, walks, and strikes out a lot.  Nobody else on that list pops out to me (Crawford, Baldelli, and Vlad will all have their options picked up), so I'm hoping that Duncan and Ankiel show their true potential this year and Rasmus comes up and is gangbusters for a month or two.  Dealing with Tampa is much harder now that they've moved Young and Upton out of their OF plans, so I don't see being able to deal for Baldelli, a player I've always really liked.
Bottom line, two signings out of that class would substantially help this ballclub in 2009: A.J. Burnett and Felipe Lopez.  

Worst Case $$$:

Lopez 4 years $32 million (6 mm, 7mm, 9mm, 10mm)
Burnett 5 years $70 million (12mm, 13mm, 14mm, 15mm, 16mm)

With the money coming off the books next year (Kennedy, Izzy, Izturis, Juan E) makes that nearly enough to pay for the first 2 years of both of those deals.  They avoided arbitration with Molina and I hope to pay a lot in arbitration for Duncan and Ankiel next season because they've had such great years.  In the worst case payroll might get to $115 million but the club would surely be competitive in the division with this lineup:

  1. Rasmus CF
  2. Ankiel LF
  3. Pujols 1B
  4. Duncan RF
  5. Glaus 3B
  6. Lopez SS
  7. Hoffpauir 2B
  8. Molina C
  9. Pitcher
Reserves: Spiezio, Ryan, Ludwick, Barton, Larue (or other backup catcher)

Starting Pitching:

  1. Carpenter
  2. Burnett
  3. Wainwright
  4. Piniero
  5. Clement/Mulder(NO!)/Reyes
Bullpen:

MR: Thompson (R)
MR: Worrell (R)
MR: Johnson (L)
LS: R. Flores (L) (Not concerned with which one)
SU: Kinney (R)
SU: Franklin (R)
CL: Garcia (R)

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 22, 2008 7:02 PM EST   0 recs

Bad formatting
I'm really terrible at formatting this stuff so sorry it reads so damn blocked up...I'm working on getting the HTML stuff down so these posts look better
"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 22, 2008 7:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

furcal vs lopez
The big difference between them is defense.  Looking at PMR, Lopez had less range at 2B than Kennedy and less range at SS than Eckstein, while furcal was the third-best SS in the game.  The difference between the two was 11.2% or 53 plays made by furcal that lopez would not have made, assuming 473 balls in play (the number furcal had in 2007)- that is huge.  And Lopez was even worse in 2006.  

I'd like to see them make a run at trading for Khalil Greene.  He'll be a free agent after '09, is an average fielder with a ton of pop and says he won't resign with the Padres because he wants to be in a more hitter-friendly park on the east coast (STL is east-ier than SD, at least ;) He has had an awful OBP but he'd be a 35+ HR guy playing outside of san diego.

Anyway I agree with most of the rest of what you said although I think Ludwick is capable of holding down a corner OF spot and I'd expect FA $$ to be higher than your estimates across the board.

"My other option was to go hunting dogs and cats with Scott Rolen." - TLR

by SleepyCA on Jan 22, 2008 7:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Some great thoughts there
It seems people think Furcal is going to break the bank.  I'm curious what kind of contracts people have in mind with him, because maybe I'm being naive to think it could be somewhere approaching the 10M/yr range.  Not an insignificant amount by any means, but by today's free agent standards not earthshattering either for a premium position.

Lopez vs. Furcal is a great comparison.  Neither had a particularly good season last year, and I'd expect a return towards the career averages for both.  Despite the age differences I still think Furcal should be valued a little higher than Lopez, at this point at least.  He carries a better record of on-base ability.  Lopez carries a career .328 vs. Furcal's .349.  Last year .308 vs. .333.  A significant enough difference there to draw a distinction, I think.  I don't want Lopez near the top of the lineup. I might want Furcal there.  

I also think defensively Furcal is toolsy. Though not really worthy of being considered elite defensively, I would not anticipate significant erosion of his ability in the short/mid term.  I think he can hold up at shortstop.  Lopez I am not as certain about.  I will concede that's a subjective as hell opinion to say, but opinion on defensive ability often is a little more subjective and less quantifiable.  Defense certainly could be debated.

Long story short - either could be a nice choice at the right price.  I can just see why a higher price for Furcal would be justified at this point.  

by Merry CRasmus on Jan 22, 2008 7:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Furcal
I think this guy makes 11MM per year on his current contract, so a 10MM per year contract is very unlikely, he will get closer to 15MM per year from a desperate club...see Chicago (both of them)

I would like to see Orlando and Orlando in our middle infield next year.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Jan 23, 2008 9:18 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

at 15M
I would agree we need to find another option.  For something around 10 or 11M a year a 3 year deal might not be a bad idea.  Especially if the prevailing idea that Martinez is ultimately a second baseman is also the organization's belief.  

Giving Lopez 3 years scares me.  4 years much more so.

by Merry CRasmus on Jan 23, 2008 5:31 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lopez v. Furcal...
... other than defense, Lopez has been trending down pretty sharply in the past few years, and has only one season of above-average OPS+. his OBP last year was .308, and he's only had two seasons above .314. Furcal was hurt last year and struggled some, but in the four years prior his lowest OPS+ was 95 (Lopez only has one season above that his whole career). Furcal's career OBP is .349, over 20 points higher than Lopez's.

Furcal has just been a much better player over the course of his career. now, if his price gets above 4/40 or so, then maybe you pass.

other quibbles: i don't see a need to sign any OF, especially if Barton works out. We'd then have Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan, Rasmus, Barton, Schumacher all cheap and controlled, with Mather, Jay, Haerther, Stavinhova, etc. as insurance (assuming the latter guys progress). Spiezio won't be back, and neither will LaRue. Burnett will cost much more than you project (he makes $12mn in '09 and '10 under his current contract). Kennedy is under contract through '09, so he'll still be here unless he gets DFA'd.

by kindred on Jan 22, 2008 8:09 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Lopez
He trended down last season because he moved to a ballpark where hitters go to die and also stuggled with some injury problems but played through them.  His defense isn't great, but it isn't terrible at 2B -- Kennedy isn't exactly a shining star in that department, and Lopez is much better with the bat.  Furcal will get in the neighborhood of $15 million a year from someone, and I don't see the value honestly.  He's not one of the five best SS in baseball in terms of production so why sink top 20 money into a guy like that?  That's just not a good way to spend money in my opinion.  I'd rather roll the dice with a young guy in the farm system than pay a 31 year old SS $15 million a year for 5 years.

I may be low on Burnett, but his injury history is going to cost him some $$$ with all the good free agent pitching that will be out there.  I think he's going to get a deal similar to what the Cards offered Carpenter, with maybe another $5 or $10 million on it.  If you're him, making $12 million in Toronto is worse than making $12 million in St. Louis simply because of the income taxes in Canada.  In fact he'd have been better off taking the Cardinal offer for tax purposes the last time he was a free agent if I'm running the numbers right.

Kennedy may still be here or he may be DFA'd.  If one of the young kids is ready he's gone unless the Cards lose Spiezio, then he may be back as a utility infielder. (I think Speez may be back in 2009 -- just my gut instinct talking)  

I don't see the need to sign an OF UNLESS they trade Duncan for pitching which I think I stated.  I'm not as high on Ludwick as some here at VEB -- I think he's a nice player, but I'm not sure he's ever going to reach his potential.  In that case they will need to try and acquire someone with some pop to play LF because none of the other guys you mention (besides Ankiel) project as 20+ homer guys in the big leagues.  I'm not to high on any of our OF talent on the farm that isn't named Rasmus.  Most of those guys have major flaws in their game or just simply are average to below average big leaguers.  You're also assuming Ankiel doesn't flop this season and so am I, if he does then they'll have to kick the tires on an outfielder next year.

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 23, 2008 11:17 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

you're right about furcal
if Furcal gets that kind of money it would be crazy to sign him.  Even 10 per is pushing it- he's on the wrong end of the aging curve and won't get any better than he is.  But he'll be the best SS on the market and that has value, so he probably will get overpaid.

I think you missed my point above though.  Lopez has been significantly WORSE than Kennedy, both with the bat (except for Lopez' fluky 2005 and Kennedy's 2007) and with the glove at 2B.  If AK returns to 75% of career form he'll be the better choice, and he's a sunk cost.  

 

"My other option was to go hunting dogs and cats with Scott Rolen." - TLR

by SleepyCA on Jan 23, 2008 1:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

You do know
that we've already gotten Cesar Izturis this offseason, correct?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Jan 22, 2008 8:42 PM EST   0 recs

We did
that's great, I saw him play alot in '04 and he was a force at the plate and in the field.

Wonder what he has been up to the last few years? Oh well, I'm sure it was good.

by That's a Winner on Jan 24, 2008 7:21 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Pitchers. We have to go after pitchers.
Our farm system is bottom heavy and therefore, we need long term solutions until Mo and his new team can build on some drafts (and please, don't stay away from all Boras clients--the game has changed--we need to catch up).

We've got to go after pitching in 2009, and since DeWitt and his cronies haven't dipped into those mile-deep pockets in a while, we need to throw some money at younger, but proven starters.

I agree Burnett should be highly targeted. I like Garland for durability and consistency.  Then maybe we look at a long term solution at Middle Infield.

"No regrets, that's my motto. That, and everyone wang chung tonight."

by cardsfansince1982 on Jan 23, 2008 5:49 PM EST   0 recs

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