weekend discussion: how well will they score?

by lboros on Jan 19, 2008 9:54 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

results from day 2 of the sim tournament are directly below, in this post.

here's a quick comparison of opening-day lineups, last year vs this year, by position:

2007		2008
molina	C	molina
pujols	1B	pujols
kennedy	2B	kennedy
eckstein	SS	izturis
rolen	3B	glaus
duncan	LF	duncan
edmonds	CF	ankiel / rasmus
en'cion	RF	ludwick / ankiel

the cards take a step backward at shortstop, but that's seemingly offset by the mild upgrades in center and right; with the addition of glaus, a clear improvement over rolen v2007, st louis can probably count on a more potent offense next season. of course, rolen v2008 probably would have been better than rolen v2007 too, so it remains to be seen whether the st louis offense actually comes out ahead on the exchange of 3bmen. but i don't think this team will finish 13th in the league in homers, as last year's did.

here's a comparison by batting-order position:

2007	2008
eckstein	kennedy?
duncan	duncan
pujols	pujols
rolen	glaus
edmonds	ankiel
encarnacion	ludwick
molina	molina
pitcher	pitcher
kennedy	izturis

again, weaker production out of eckstein's slot, offset by better production through the rest of the order. and remember, one potential contributor (rasmus) isn't listed here.

today's question: how many runs do you see the cards scoring (they plated 725 runs last year)? where do you think they will rank (they were 11th last year)?

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Comments

Scoring

Personally, I think the team almost has to be slightly better this season than last; simply not having an unhealthy Jim Edmonds playing at least a month or so too early should result in a solid improvement.

The middle infield won't be any better; we take a step back at short, but hopefully Kennedy is a little better and offsets it.

Yadi may regress a bit, but I think he'll be okay.

Glaus should definitely improve the offense over last season, regardless of how well he ends up comparing to 2008 Scott Rolen.

I think the big gain should come in the outfield. There is some truly dynamic talent out there, with, (hopefully) Colby Rasmus ready to destroy AAA pitching, get himself feeling it, and making an impact in June.

I'm going to say the Cards score around 780 runs this season, and place right around 8th in the league.

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 19, 2008 10:07 AM EST reply actions

Maybe, but the wild card

is health. Practically every position is manned by someone who could suddenly develop a health problem that cuts his productivity drastically. Exhibit A is El Hombre himself. When fully healthy, Pujols is capable of a line that looks like .360/.480/.680; after all, he's been close to that point before (in 2003), and by all accounts, he's improved his skills since then, which is a scary thought. Plug that line into your hypothesized lineups, and 780 runs looks very much like an underestimate. But he's never 100% healthy, nor is anyone else who plays baseball for a living.

I'd go along with your 780 figure as the most probable, or maybe just a bit less -- 770, maybe. But no figure from 700 to 840 (seriously!) would surprise me when we get to the end of the year. I'd take the "under" on a 780 over/under, but I wouldn't put much money on it.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 19, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

One other thing

I would really like to see Chris Duncan hitting in the cleanup position this season. You can use him to break up your two right handed power sticks, and Dunc receives nice protection from Glaus. I also think that having both Duncan and Glaus hitting behind Albert offers him better protection than just one of them.

I'm aware that lots of people really like Duncan in the #2 slot, but I think that's a waste of his power. I think my ideal lineup would look something like this:

Schumaker/Barton
Kennedy
Pujols
Duncan
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
P
Izturis

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 19, 2008 10:13 AM EST reply actions

Hit 'post' too soon.

By the end of the year, I would hope for something more like this:

Barton
Hoffpauir
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Rasmus
Molina
Pitcher
Ryan/Greene/Martinez/ B. Lillibridge/ C.L. Hu/ some other ss the team can hopefully acquire in the C. Duncan trade.

There. That looks good.

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 19, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions

Ludwick

Days when Ryan Ludwick plays, I would slide him into the 6 hole and put Colby at the top.

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 19, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

Hmm.

I seem to be talking to myself this morning. I'm even unpopular in cyberspace. How very sad.

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 19, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions

Nah, it's just early for a Saturday...

I think lineup construction will be key for the Cards this year (and Tony will be salivating over the "tinkering" he'll do!)

Since the Cards don't have a traditional leadoff hitter, Tony's been talking about putting a high-OBP guy in that slot, whether he can run or not. If Izturis could learn to take a walk and just slap the ball on the ground and run like hell, he'd be the lead-off guy. That could happen... and pigs might, someday, fly! (I think this is something the Cards will work on with Cesar, but it remains to be seen how much improvement he'll be able to make.)

Just a hunch, but I think you might see Ankiel leading off, at least part of the time. I think Tony will platoon pretty extensively with Barton, Ludwick, Duncan, and Schumaker; possibly with Kennedy, Miles, and Ryan (if Boog makes the squad).

One goalie's guess at the lineups:

vs. RHP

Schumaker RF
Ankiel CF
Pujols 1B
Duncan LF
Glaus 3B
Kennedy 2B
Molina C
Pitcher
Izturis SS

vs. LHP

Ankiel CF
Barton LF
Pujols 1B
Glaus 3B
Ludwick RF
Molina C
Miles/Ryan 2B
Pitcher
Izturis SS

Blue-sky guesstimate of runs? How 'bout 800?

Realistic guesstimate -- somewhere around half a run a game better than last year.

Just my opinion -- if'n you can prove me wrong, fire away!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jan 19, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

Um,

actually, Goaler, half a run better per game would put them at 806.

Nobody puts Baby in the corner.

by the red baron on Jan 19, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

Oops!

Hey, goalies aren't supposed to count... just make sure the next shot doesn't go in!

You're right, though... half a run a game would be a substantial improvement.

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jan 19, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

hey, where is juan gonzalez in that lineup

i kid...

i did find that at bbtf, don't know if it's been posted before

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cards_might_sign_juan_gonzalez/

I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be.

by erik on Jan 19, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions

i get nothing on this link, eh?

i thought it pretty hysterical myself. oh well.

I hate... so much about the things that you choose to be.

by erik on Jan 19, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions

It would have been funny ...

if it hadn't had an air of bitter truth about it.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 19, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

great link erik

n/t

Albert Pujols stole my 1998 Ford Taurus.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jan 19, 2008 7:59 PM EST up reply actions

ROTFLMAO

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Jan 20, 2008 4:03 AM EST up reply actions

780+ RS, rank 9th

2007 OBP driven lineup = schumaker .358, duncan .354, pujols .429, glaus .366, ankiel .328, molina .340, izturis .302, kennedy .282, pitcher.
i cant justify a middle infielders obp in front of our rbi guys. i also have to have two batters between molina and the bunting pitcher. it's a force out at 2B with molina running on a sac bunt, which eliminates that option w/pitcher batting.
trusting ankiels 127 career AB's as a position player in front of albert, is a gamble with our runs scored for 08 vs rhp's. ankiels mlb and milb reverse splits, could become more balanced w/more AB's, until then his SLG% is fine behind glaus. vs LHP's, i use ankiels OPS in the 2 hole.

by hard9fan on Jan 19, 2008 1:18 PM EST reply actions

Hope we get into the top 10

I know the pitching was bad in '07, but I maintain a bigger issue was the lack of runs. Reyes in particular suffered from no support.

I was hoping for a bigger upgrade on offense. I don't see Kennedy helping nor Izturis. I'd prefer to give Hoff and Ryan a look at the middle infield spots.

If Glaus, et.al. can't protect Albert, he'll set a new IBB record.

by gocards62 on Jan 19, 2008 1:46 PM EST reply actions

My 2 cents...

Unless Rasmus makes the club out of ST, which I don't consider likely, I think that it's likely we'll see a CF platoon with Barton/Schumaker and Ludwick. I could also see that platoon filling the leadoff spot. So the lineup would look something like this:

VS. RHP

Barton/Schumaker CF
Ankiel RF
Pujols 1B
Duncan LF
Glaus 3B
Molina C
Izturis SS
Kennedy 2B
Pitcher

VS. LHP

Ludwick CF
Ankiel RF
Pujols 1B
Glaus 3B
Duncan LF
Molina C
Izturis/Ryan SS
Kennedy/Ryan/Hoffpauir 2B
Pitcher

I would love to see Izturis turn things around and hit at the top of he lineup, but I don't see that happening. I think in absence of that, Barton and Ludwick have the best OBP chances ahead of Pujols. I don't see Ankiel leading off at all -- he doesn't work counts and is a bit of a free swinger so he's not a good pick for the leadoff spot. It doesn't make him a good pick for the second spot either, but Tony is a big fan of power in the two hole and Duncan is much better served to hit behind Albert as he'll have more RBI opportunities and see more pitchers in the stretch because of guys on base. I would hit Glaus behind Duncan against righties simply because Duncan kills RH pitching and it sets up nicely in the later innings with a righty/lefty/righty setup in the middle of the lineup. Our middle infield is so bad I don't see this lineup finishing in the top half of the league in runs scored unless Kennedy and Izturis return to 2004 form -- I would consider that a long shot to happen, so hopefully Ryan and Hoffpauir will see a chance early in the year.

"I just wish that the late Harry Carey were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 19, 2008 2:12 PM EST reply actions

I do not see...

everyones obsession with ankiel hitting in the 2 hole? Not to bag on you personally but about every lineup I see on here has him there...I see it as being counter-productive having someone with low .300 obp esp with a lead off hitter with a mid .300 obp at best. The idea is to get as many on as possible in front of Pujols, right?

"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon

by nomar34 on Jan 19, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

Ankiel in 2 hole

I can't speak for others, but Pujols is exactly why I'd like Ankiel in the 2 hole. As far as I can tell, this team isn't likely to break camp with a starter who is an ideal 1 or 2 guy.

With this in mind, I think putting a guy like Ankiel (high potential, but unrefined with a tendency to strike out) in front of Pujols will help him adjust and get comfortable with major league pitching. Not only will his production be better this year than it would be in another spot (including fewer strike outs b/c he'll get more pitches to hit), it also should help his developement into '09. These outcomes benefit the Cards in both the short and long term. This is what I think the thought process was in developing Duncan, and I think that contributed to his development into a solid contributer.

I think Duncan has developed enough to move out of that spot and actually provide some protection for others. I don't think he's ready to be El Hombre's safety net, so I think Ankiel, Albert, Glaus, Duncan would make a nice 2-5 with Ludwick 6 or Barton 1, depending on who preforms better.

Ideally, I'd then like to see Colby play his way on to the team by June or July and take over that coveted spot infront of Albert. Not only does the adjustment/development argument work here also, Colby has the tools of a prototypical 2 hitter in my mind. Hopefully Ankiel will be playing well and can move down to a support role that better uses his power, like the 6 hole. This is also presuming that the leadoff hitter isn't so abismal that Colby has to be pressed into service there.

by fltfire on Jan 19, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

Good for Ankiel

I can see it being better for Ankiel hitting there but i just dont see it being better for the team...he hit there last year when he came up and was on fire for most of his tenure and still only managed a .320+ obp i just dont find that good enough to be in front of pujols...if duncan stays healthy this year i think he can put up a .375+ obp hitting in front of pujols with about the same power potential. i am a tony supporter but if has ankiel hitting 2nd all year i will be sorely disappointed...but i like youre idea of rasmus coming up and hitting there!!!

"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon

by nomar34 on Jan 19, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions

800 +/- 20 runs

I am being highly optimistic but I feel we have a lot of power in the line-up this year we didn't have last year. I think we will also see more hustle and a more productive Pujols early on in the year thanks to Glaus.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 19, 2008 2:23 PM EST reply actions

A big chunk of the runs scored question

will not be addressed until we know what the Cards will be getting out of the lead-off and 2nd spots in the lineup.

Ankiel, for all of his power, is not an obp guy. Kennedy, without a career year, might not bring in anything offensively. I am terrified that Tony will stick Izturis in the leadoff spot.

I am hopeful that Rasmus or Barton will step forward and provide the Cards will solid production in the 1 and/ or 2 holes.

My biggest worry, the Cards are much like the Cubs of a few years ago: dependent on the long ball to score runs. Given the presence of so many power hitters with lower batting averages, lower opb skills, and big strikeout numbers, this Cardinals team is set up to be reliant on the home run and is exactly the type of lineup that fails to produce in the playoffs against power pitchers that rack up big strikeouts.

by JMedwick on Jan 19, 2008 4:55 PM EST reply actions

Ludwick should be the guy...

In the second half last year, he actually turned into a high OBP guy, which is how he was in the minors. In the first half, he had a BA of .258 and an OBP of only .287. But in the second half he hit .274 and his OBP was .372. Which is more in line with his minor league numbers, so is probably closer to reality.

Of course, his reverse splits make him tricky to use every day, but against righties he should bat leadoff or 2nd.

by DiscoJer on Jan 19, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

Also,

I just can't see Kennedy performing as badly in 2008 as he did in 2007. Maybe it's just pie in the sky optimism, but hey, it's January.

Everything that could have gone wrong last year did. Some of that luck is bound to reverse, right?

right?

by Valatan on Jan 19, 2008 5:19 PM EST reply actions

What went wrong for Kennedy?

It didn't seem to me like bad breaks for Kennedy; it seemed like he just played really, epically awful. I can't muster much hope for a "bounce back" from such a dramatic erosion of skills.

I realize this isn't a post about batting order, but isn't Izturis more likely/desirable in the leadoff spot? Granted, they're both dogs. But Kennedy posted AVG/OBP/SLG all below .300 and is three years older.

In summary: I think Adam Kennedy is really bad at baseball. That is all.

by bgodar on Jan 19, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

746 +/- 25 ??

since TLR will change the lineup almost every day and the bench players will get lots of AB's, i parted from the 2007 batting numbers for all players on the current roster.

projecting the amount of AB's and assuming players perform on their 2007 level, i come to a total of 746 RS. inuries and positive surprises off course can change this...

nr player AB R

1    A Pujols     565    110
2    T Glaus      500      85
3    R Ankiel     430      70
4    C Duncan     450      51
5    R Ludwick     410      65
6    C Izturis      425      47
7    A Kennedy      400      45
8    Y Molina     353      30
9    S Schumaker    350      50
10    S Spiezio      335      47
11    B Barton     320      40
12    J LaRue     237    21
13    A Miles      200    25

Z pitchers 250 15
X call ups 300 45

2008 projections 5525 746

2007 actual totals 5529 725

"bury the dead, feed the survivors and rebuild the city" (marques do pombal, 1777)

by Johnny64 on Jan 19, 2008 5:45 PM EST reply actions

Just saw this story about Carp throwing again

at Yahoo Sports:

-----

Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter is throwing again and feeling good as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery.

"I just started tossing on Monday," Carpenter said Saturday at the 12th annual Cardinals Winter Warm-Up. "I haven't had any problems so far. I haven't had any soreness, but I know it's still going to be a long process."

------

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AqLGtXgzx1xxFKueLq7p4KkRvLYF?slug=ap-cardinals-carpenter&p rov=ap&type=lgns

by BTown Birds fan on Jan 19, 2008 7:24 PM EST reply actions

And, if I'd been paying attention I'd have noticed

that it's also up on the little Rotoworld thingie....

by BTown Birds fan on Jan 19, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions

Glaus and No. 8...........

I heard Glaus wont be wearing no. 25 he will be wearing No. 8 when he plays for the Cards
but who really cares?

by Calhoun on Jan 19, 2008 8:09 PM EST reply actions

Score prediction

813 Runs, good for a solid #4.

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Jan 19, 2008 8:45 PM EST reply actions

715, 11th

I don't see the improvement. This team has lost a lot of their mental leaders. There are way to many young, unpredictable, question marks to give the offense any consistency.

by rrvwmr on Jan 19, 2008 10:31 PM EST reply actions

Pitcher batting eighth

Let it go...... please.

My line-up to date.

Colby
Rick
Best batsman in the world
Troy
Chris/ Juan Gone
Yadi
Izzy 2
Ryan/ Miles/Kennedy
Pitcher/pinch hitters

Before everyone throws Juan Gone under the bus, give the man a chance to prove what he is made of.

by Yadier on Jan 19, 2008 11:11 PM EST reply actions

Modest Improvement

I have the Cardinals at 748 runs next year.



Name            OPS+    PA

Yadier Molina   90      441

Albert Pujols   157     637

*Adam Kennedy   50      300

Troy Glauss     120     566

Cesar Izturis   60      300

*Chris Duncan   120     500

*Rick Ankiel    110     500

Ryan Ludwick    110     500

#Aaron Miles    75      450

*Skip Schumaker 95      340

Colby Rasmus    110     300

#Scott Spiezio  95      250

Brendan Ryan    95      200

Jason LaRue     100     150

Pitchers        50      331

Others          70      390

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Jan 20, 2008 1:46 AM EST reply actions

#9 in the NL

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Jan 20, 2008 3:52 AM EST up reply actions

Aaron Miles

Sixth on the team in ABs, I think I just threw up a little in my mouth. But I,m sure TRL will find a way.
I guess you either have Barton not making the team or he is under the others group? I'm was holding out hope he could turn into the defacto lead-off hitter this spring since it's clear from the line-ups I've seen here we don't have one.

by That's a Winner on Jan 20, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

Barton is my hope

for a lead off hitter at least in platoon with Schu. Ideally this could work for the first half with Dunc piling up stats in the 4 spot. I'd then love to see Dunc go in a trade for a real shortstop, Rasmus called up and hitting second and Ankiel moved to cleanup with protection from Glaus. Then of course we could afford to trade Miles for Santana and be all set for the post season. Seriously, this is expecting a lot of Barton but for some reason I do.

by easy on Jan 20, 2008 3:26 PM EST reply actions

Honorable Mention for Roger Freed

He hit two very memorable game-winning homeruns in otherwise meaningless seasons. The first was a 3-run blast in the bottom of the ninth inning to complete a 7-run comeback against the Dodgers. The second was a grand slam off Joe Sambito to beat the Astros 4-3 in the bottom of the eleventh.

by Hungry Jack on Jan 21, 2008 12:29 PM EST reply actions