Crystal Ball Gazing

by Mr Redbird on Jan 14, 2008 1:36 PM EST Comment 14 comments

Unless you've been living under a rock over the past several months, you should understand that the Cardinals are beginning a rebuilding period. The moves of Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen for younger, cheaper players prove this. The off-season so far has got me thinking about the future of the organization, and I want to pose a poll question: When will be the next season our boys in Red are still playing in October?

Is the Central going to be so weak next year that we could win 85 games and get in? Or do you see the rest of the clubs around us getting stronger and stronger, while we're treading water or even backsliding? You can go on a hunch, you can give some good numbers and figures to back your answer up, just gimme an idea. I'll put as many years as I can in the poll question.

Poll

When is the next time St. Louis will be playing postseason baseball?

2016

1 votes

2017+

0 votes

2008

39 votes

2009

109 votes

2010

89 votes

2011

13 votes

2012

5 votes

2013

0 votes

2014

0 votes

2015

0 votes

256 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 14 comments

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Comments

09

I voted for 09 but I think it could very well be 08 if some pieces fall together.

Here is how I see 09 shaping out as our next chance (again this takes luck)

Rasmus CF
Ankiel RF
Pujols 1B
Glaus 3B
Duncan/Barton/Mather/Hamilton LF
Molina C
Martinez SS
Kennedy 2B

Ludwick OF
Schumaker/Barton/Mather/etc. OF
Ryan IF
Hoffpauir IF
Anderson C

Carpenter
Wainwright
Clement
Pineiro
Reyes/Mulder/Boggs/etc.

Perez
Franklin
Kinney
Worrell
Johnson
Ron Flores
Walters
Mortensen (or anyone else really)

This team just looks ready to compete and is a good mix of seasoned vets and young players.

by StLHugo on Jan 14, 2008 1:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's definitely a lineup

with potential...big emphasis on potential. I'm still not sold on Carp being back to form, and the staff worries me. I'm more of a 2010 kind of guy...

"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.

by bukowski on Jan 14, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to be optimistic

And say '09. I think they'll have a good mix of veterans (Pujols, Glaus, Carp, Molina) and youngsters (Rasmus, Perez, whoeversurvivestheHerronParisiBoggsHawkattentionwar) and could be a pretty solid team in '09

I just think that too much has to go just so for the Cards to get there this year. This will be a more interesting transition year.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 14, 2008 3:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think

if the Cards can handle the Cubs in their head to head competetion, they will be in it next year. If the Cubs win 10 or 12 of the eighteen like last year, they won't.

by ridgesee on Jan 14, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That may be the case

What concerns me about the division is the Reds and the Brewers. The Cubs are the Cubs - the Brewers just got a lot better defensively, and the Reds will keep things interesting.

"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.

by bukowski on Jan 14, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm calling it for the Reds.

They have really solid hitters, a true ace, a true #2 and a whole bunch of good young arms to choose from for the rest of the spots.

Dusty is not thought of as a good manager, but check the record--he has won the division every time he managed a new team the first year he's been there.

They have a boatload of ready/near ready minor league talent to fill whatever need they might have.
In fact, since Jocketty is there now, I suggest the Cards try to pick his pocket by sending him a veteran for one, two, three of their youngsters....
Since Dusty is hard on pitchers, they need to win this year-they'll be on the DL next year.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 14, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going with '09, too...

Carp hopefully will be back and 100%. We may have one of the best leadoff hitters in the league in Rasmus. Not to mention this division is still weak, and all those high priced cubbies will be another year older. I like this lineup:

Rasmus
Ankiel
Pujols
Glaus
Duncan
Molina
Ryan?
Pitcher
Hoffpauir

by cardzfanbub on Jan 14, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2009?

I'm (optimistically)going with 2009 and that is assuming that they answer a lot of the questions they have this year and address the remaining holes they have by dipping into the talented free agent market with the money they will save by unloading Rolen. I think we'll be more competitive than many people think this year, but there are too many teams that will be more competitive next year, and we would need a lot of things to break our way to win a division. In 2009 we will be (likely) seeing our first full year of Rasmus, we will have a better idea of what we can count on from Ankiel and Duncan, and assuming the entire starting rotation dosen't implode this year, we can plug in a free agent as needed. But if the lineup looks like the one proposed by Hugo above, it will mean that the team sat on their hands (and wallets) in the year everyone has been pointing to as the year to spend some dough in free agency. I'm all for developing the young tallent, but there's no point in paying Pujols while we wait 3 years for all of our (not highly regarded) prospects to develop. We can't be afraid to add a veteran arm or bat to speed up the process.

What does a mama bear on the pill have in common with the World Series? No cubs. ~Harry Caray

by Tupelo on Jan 14, 2008 8:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm high on '08

in any case it will be an interesting year. I find myself more attentive to the up-coming season than I have been at a similar time of the year in campaigns past.
My reasons for optimism are not logical or statistical, but almost purely a gambler-esque "hunch-feeling."

We play in the NL Central, the "I got it, no you take it" division {a bit more on that at the bottom.}
The offense CAN'T be as poor as it was last year; ditto the starting pitching... specifically Reyes... AND there is no Kip Wells in uniform!

I live in Reds country, so I am well aware of (and agree with) the points Jill made above about Cincinnati for '08. But, unlike her, I think the Dustbag as manager is their Achilles heel.

by the Tewk on Jan 14, 2008 10:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I don't think Dusty is a very good manager.

But it is a fact that he has won the division his FIRST year on the job both places he's managed-with the Giants and the Cubs. I think he goes somewhere, makes a good first impression, the players play for him and it's a happy lovefest. Then they all get to know each other better and it all collapses.

The Reds have a great group of veteran hitters to work their youngsters around. Phillips and E. Encarnancion have another year of experience, and they finally appear to have solved their bullpen problem.

I have followed their ace's career for several years now. Harang took an interesting route. He started off badly.....his first two years were ugly, really ugly. But since he's figured it out-man, can he pitch. He'd be a household name if the Reds pulled it off, because he would be a big reason for it.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 14, 2008 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Could it be...

that Dusty wins in his first year because his best 2-3 pitchers throw half the innings? Thus causing a collapse the following year due to injury/fatigue.

Over/under on IP for Harang/Arroyo and the young guys 230-240? Number of times over 120 pitches?

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Jan 15, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

arroyo is awful after 100 pitches

Last year he was worse than Maroth after 100 pitches - he gave up almost as many home runs (5) as K's (6) (and was left in for too long 17 times!) He's been that way in 3 of the 4 years he was a starter, with the exception of '06. The question is, will dusty recognize this? If not I can see arroyo gone from the rotation, either injured or traded, by the all-star break. I think Harang will be fine though.

I also can't believe they traded Hamilton.

the bums will always lose...

by SleepyCA on Jan 15, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he was often left in too long because of

the bullpen last year. The Reds have a new closer and can move Weathers back to 8th inning. Bill Bray looks like the real deal. Hopefully, they will watch Arroyo and Harang's workload more carefully. I'm looking at you, Dusty.......nah, it won't happen.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 15, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

'10

I really would like to be optimistic about '08, but I just don't really see any area where the team is significantly improved enough to compete with Milwuakee

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Jan 15, 2008 3:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs