Analysis of the Brewers signing of Cameron

by maurerdj on Jan 12, 2008 1:41 PM EST Comment 9 comments

I know this is Cards page, but the Brew Crew is in the Central and I love baseball analysis. The Brewers signed Cameron to a 1yr deal worth 5.5 million (including signing bonus) with an option. I believe this is one of the better signings of the offseason in terms of cost efficiency. As a result Hall will be moved from CF to 3B, Braun from 3B to LF and Cameron will play CF.

Defensive Benefit
2007 FAA (Fielding runs above replacement, adjusted for position) by position for Brewers
3B: -19
CF: -20
LF: 2
Total: -30

In 84 games as a 3B, Hall has a RAA of 0, inducting he's a league average 3B. Last year Cameron had an RAA of -1 in CF, indicating he's a league average CF. Braun was a horrible defender at 3B, but it was mostly due to his glove. He has a above average arm and above average speed. I have read some scouts say he could be a league average OF, but for the sake of argument we'll give him a -10.

2008 (projected)
3B: 0
CF: 0
LF: -10
Total: -10 (2 wins gained)

Offensive analysis
Hall had a down year last year and likely to rebound this year. Its unlikely Braun can support a .367 BABIP, so he will regress. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume Hall's rebound and Braun's regression offset one another. Essentially you are replacing Cameron with a Jenkins/Mench platoon.

Jenkins(15) and Mench(7) combined to obtain at BRAR of 22, but this overvalues them somewhat as Mench played 33 game in RF and 51 games in LF, so let's take from the total of BRAR for the platoon making it 19. Cameron had a BRAR of of 28 in a extreme pitcher's park. I believe that Cameron's bat alone will account for about 2 more wins than the platoon of Jenkins/Mench.

Overall, it looks like the Brewers will gain 4 wins from the Cameron signing. Basically one win per million spent. But this is just comparing the singing to last year's stats. A whole year of Braun in 3B could cost the Brewers -40 FAA making the total projected wins gained 6. The Cameron signing has an excellent signing by the Brewers in that it is a low cost, 1 year deal and allows them to gain wins defensively by placing players in positions where they can cause the least damage.

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Comments

I think it is a shrewd move on the Brewers part.

It improves them in the one area they need to improve desperately in-defense. IMO they would have been able to finish at the top of the NL Central last year if they had a made a few more plays in a few more games. If I were them, I'd also try to switch Weeks to a new position or trade him for a better defensive middle infielder-he is an atrocious fielder.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 12, 2008 1:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good move

seems like a good move by the Brew Crew.

Cameron is good enough defensively he should be able to protect Braun a bit in LF, since Cory Hart is a good RF. It gets Bill Hall back to the IF which is his original position as well.

I wish the Cardinals had a 2B in the majors or minors who could touch Weeks but they just don't come close. His D may be suspect but his offense if good enough to let it slide in my opinion. STL would kill for his 2B production.

by ICbirdfan on Jan 12, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that Weeks is a very nice offensive

player. And it's probably not fair to single him out when talking about poor defense and the Brewers because the whole team is pretty poor at playing defense. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that they need to improve on defense-by a lot-if they want to get to the top.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 12, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shoot...

Any deal that moves Ryan Braun off of third base is a good one. I truly believe that Yost's refusal to move Braun to the OF and put, well, someone else at 3rd was a big part of the reason the Crew went into the tank. Capuano and Suppan were absolutely killed by that horrid defense behind them.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 12, 2008 5:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

by cardsgirl95 on Jan 12, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very nice move

by Milwaukee here. This should improve them markedly next season. Look out, Chicago!

You little punks think you own this town.

by the red baron on Jan 13, 2008 5:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

One thing to consider

Good analysis overall, but I would like to point out that they might or might NOT be gaining 2 wins by moving Braun to left. He was an absolute butcher at third, but what's his experience in left?

It does seem unlikely he could hurt the Crew as much in left as he did at third, but if he plays a "Duncan in '06"-like left field, or possibly even worse, then I think it's reasonable to think they might gain 2 wins by taking him off third, but lose one of them back to equally bad defense at a less-premium position.

by mtalken on Jan 13, 2008 12:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

response

My thinking why Braun will be at least adequate in LF is based off some scouting reports I have read. Also, his problem at 3B was not his arm or speed. He has an above average arm and above average speed (he's averaged about 20 SB a year in college, minors, and pros). His problem was he had a bad glove. Being in LF will play to his defensive strengths. He won't be on the same level as Geoff Jenkins, but I think over the course of a year he'll cost his team 10 runs max and more likely be near average.

Duncan is slow, has a bad glove and poor arm. Basically he's a lumbering 1B whose playing LF. I see Braun as an athletic OF.

by maurerdj on Jan 13, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

minor quibble

of all Duncan's defensive deficiencies, speed is not one of them. he doesn't have trouble getting to balls, he just has trouble getting them into his glove. I think if you look at his baserunning statistics you will see that he is a decent runner, especially for someone so large.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 14, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs