A-Rod or Pujols

by BigMac545 on Jan 10, 2008 2:01 PM EST

I saw this over at ESPN and thought that it might be an interesting discussion (although this might be a bit biases crowd). Basically Jerry Crasnick asks which player, A-Rod or Pujols, would you rather build a team around. He gives his pluses and minuses and eventually decides on A-Rod. I just thought it would be a fun discussion to have... and of course ill give my two cents.

I am trying to stay objective through this whole analysis but when looking at all the numbers I have to take Albert. Both are fantastic hitters but I think Pujols has a slight edge. First of all he is younger. Second of all Albert has never struck out more than 93 times in any season (his rookie season) and his next highest total is 69. A-rod struck out 120 times last year... more than Albert has struck out the past two years combined (108). In fact, the difference is so stark that A-rod has struck out more times in the past two years (259) than Albert has in the last four (225). If you go back three years A-rod has more strike outs that Albert has in all of his seasons combined minus his rookie season. You get the point.

The next measure is OBP and OPS. Last season, in arguably his worst season as a pro, Pujols posted a higher OBP (.429) than A-Rod (.422) who had an MVP season. Basically, it took an amazing MVP season for A-Rod to raise his OBP to Pujol's career average which is .420. A-Rod's career OBP is .389.

When you bring OPS into the dicussion its obvious that Pujols is the better hitter. in 14 big league seasons A-Rod has had an OPS over 1.000 6 times. In 7 seasons Pujols has had an OPS over 1.000 5 times. Again, Albert's career OPS is so much better than A-Rod's that it took A-Rod an MVP season just go get close to Pujol's career average (1.069 for A-Rod in 2007 and 1.040 for Albert's career). The career OPS difference is .967 to 1.040.

Now both of these two are hands down the best two hitters in baseball right now, but when you look at the numbers Pujols is the better all around hitter.

There is also the speed and defense factor to discuss. A-Rod plays a premium defensive position at third base and has much more speed than Pujols. That being said Pujols is one of the smartest base runners in baseball, but no one in their right mind would argue that Pujols is faster. Defensively Pujols is a better defender but at a less important position. A-Rod is past his gold glove days when he was with the Mariners but I don't think he is a defensive liability at third. The one caveat I would add is that in the past A-Rod has let his offensive struggles follow him into the field. Albert is simply a fantastic defender all the time regardless of his offensive slumps. (Someone else please feel free to add to this defensive discussion with some statistical analysis... I don't have the time to do the research at the moment).

Last but not least I think you have to look at some intangibles. Pujols is as clutch as they come (just as Brad Lidge... who is still hurting) and is a career .300+ hitter in the playoffs. A-Rod lack of clutch hitting in the playoffs is well documented so I don't feel the need to discuss it. Not to mention Pujols has won a World Series and A-Rod has not. But honestly, who would you rather have in your clubhouse? Albert, who is always professional, or A-Rod the guy who opted out of his contract the night the Red Sox won the World Series. Yeah... me too.

To me it seems that in every aspect of the game except for foot speed Albert has the advantage over A-Rod. But I would love to hear your thoughts!

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Comments

I'll take Pujols.

Every year he is a threat for the MVP, Triple Crown as well as a gold glove. Also he doesn't have the shit storm following him around that A Rod has been enveloped in lately.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Jan 10, 2008 2:13 PM EST reply actions

One thing........

One thing you didn't mention was both of their playoff stats but I'm positive Albert`s number are WAY better then A-rods......lol

by Calhoun on Jan 10, 2008 2:38 PM EST reply actions

Stats

Pujols

.323/.429/.593

A-rod

.279/.361/.483

by Harknights on Jan 10, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions

Playoff stats

are of pretty minimal significance to a newly-formed team. I'm not even convinced they mean much to a perennial contender, small sample sizes being what they are.

At this stage of their respective careers, I think AP is definitely (if narrowly) a better player year-in, year-out than A-Rod, and I'm glad we have the one we have. However, the best player is not necessarily the best cornerstone for a new franchise. A-Rod does have positional flexibility in his favor, and that's no small thing; he could easily slide over to shortstop with an expansion team (and some in baseball think he should be at short and Jeter at 3B even now). If I were offered the chance to assemble an expansion team using someone else's money, I'm not sure which of the two I'd pick, but believe me, I'd be grateful to have the choice.

by StanTheManFan on Jan 10, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions

What scouts

think that A-Rod could move to short again....all the metrics AND anecdotal evidence support the idea that A-Rod is a league average 3B defensively with a decreasing range. How would that work at short when there is even more ground to cover? He could support being a SS for a short time, but I have zero faith he could play SS for any extended period of time, certainly not even one full season.

The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 11, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Remember the competition

It's not that scouts think A-rod could play SS again, it's that Jeter is so god awful defensively there. A-Rod could certainly play at a fringe average level there, but Jeter is basically the worst fielding shortstop in the major leagues by any decent metric (I'm willing to chalk up Hanley's performance last year as slightly affected by injury. He's no good, but he's not as bad as he was).

Statistically, Jeter was a -34 in Plus/Minus in 2007

by oquendo4manager on Jan 11, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe that post

was only tangentially related, but I do like sticking it to Jeter!

by oquendo4manager on Jan 11, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

El Hombre

He's a better hitter, and even though he plays the easiest position on the field John Dewan had him as the best fielder in baseball in terms of run prevention. ARod is awesome and may go down as one of the most accomplished hitters ever at both SS and 3rd. But I still have to go with Albert.

by redbirdnation8206 on Jan 10, 2008 2:41 PM EST reply actions

Agree

Albert is an awesome hitter and his D puts him over the top. I would take Albert too.

by cardsgirl95 on Jan 10, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

Funny

It was interesting how many guys listed could at least come close to Albert offensively at 1B.

Then you go across the diamond and realize how few good 3B there really are. It makes you sad to not even see Rolen's name on the list of 3B players. It is a shame his body has broken down on him.

by ICbirdfan on Jan 10, 2008 3:30 PM EST reply actions

i take albert.

the only thing that even gives me pause is his health. though albert has proved durable thus far, i have a feeling his body is going to start breaking down a bit in the coming years.

by ortic jones on Jan 10, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions

Salaries

If money becomes even a part of the discussion then the argument is settled. Albert is locked into a beautiful deal while A-Rod is being paid better than royalty in many small island nations.

Albert and A-Rod are so close you can hardly choose between them, but when it comes to the contracts, the choice is clear...you take Albert and his nearly 50% smaller deal (per season).

The hot stove is burning...

by cardzfan24 on Jan 10, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions

Tried to post on ESPN

but never got a comment posted.

I think the best (and to me, only viable) argument for A-Rod over Pujols is durability. A-Rod always plays, and always plays at A-Rod level. I wouldn't be shocked if A-Rod plays more games than Pujols over the rest of their respective careers, despite Pujols age advantage. It's easier for Pujols to play with his varied ailments now, as an under 30 year old, but an aging body might make those things harder to play with in the future.

As far as on field value, I actually don't think the comparison is that close, and here's a few ways to look at it.

OPS+ (note: league and park adjusted)
A-Rod's worst 3 full years: 120, 131, 134
A-Rod's best 3 full years: 177, 173, 162
Career Average: 147

Pujols worst 3: 151, 157, 157
Pujols best 3: 187, 178, 172
Career Average: 167

Noting that Pujols has never had a SINGLE SEASON with an OPS+ as low as A-Rod's career average, I'd be willing to call Pujols a legitimately better hitter than Alex Rodriguez. Remember that OPS+ undervalues on-base percentage (in which the Pujols advantage is more pronounced), and the difference is even larger.

Defensively, Dewan has Pujols making 13 more plays than the next best defensive first baseman. When you realize how much more valuable Pujols is defensively, and the fact that A-Rod plays at about a 0 (league average) and 3B isn't that premium (David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Chipper Jones, Garret Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Aramis Ramirez, and some new guys - Evan Longoria, Alex Gordon, Chase Headley, etc) I think you have to give the position/fielding advantage to Pujols again. Not only do I think Pujols could play league average D at 3B, I don't think A-Rod could play as well at 1B. Furthermore, the replacement offensive level for both positions is roughly equivalent.

Baserunning, aside from the stealing, I think Pujols has the advantage here too. I remember Bill James had him at about +10 bases over league average for '06 and I don't think Alex Rodriguez is that high. Need to pick up the handbook to confirm, but I think Pujols is better at advancing on batted balls and defensive misplays than A-Rod.

I couldn't really care less about the prima donna, off-field stuff, and frankly Albert might come off the same way in New York. I really don't see that affecting performance or value at all. The clutch hitting debate is certainly not settled on either side, but would have to be points for Albert if you believe in it. I don't think he needs it, anyways.

by oquendo4manager on Jan 10, 2008 5:12 PM EST reply actions

Great Post

although i was unsure on one thing. were you noting ryan zimmerman as a poor defender? because zimmerman is one of the better defensive third basemen in baseball. former manager frank robinson compared his defense to that of brooks robinson.

by stl522 on Jan 10, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry if it wasn't clear

Zimmerman was not intended to be an example of a poor defender, but an example of how offensive production from the 3B position should not be considered as premium as it seems to be.

Zim is a great fielder, for those that care Dewan has him at +21 for the 2007 season, ranking 3rd at the position behind Feliz and Inge (+27 and +22).

Also, Pujols baserunning seems to have regressed in the 2007 season. He was above average on the basepaths (+1), but overall -9 due to poor basestealing. I imagine some of this can be attributed to various ailments, but there's no guarantee he won't be dealing with similar problems for the rest of his career.

Alex Rodriguez was a good deal better than I thought (I wish I had some of my previous years statbooks with me to check those), but he was +15 on the basepaths (about where I think Albert was a couple years ago) and +16 basestealing.

While the baserunning difference may amount to a few runs, I think the difference will be less as A-Rod loses speed with age and Albert gets back some of his baserunning with better health. All in all, this difference still isn't big enough to make it a competition in my book.

by oquendo4manager on Jan 10, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions

I agree on Pujols for building a team

due to age, makeup, etc. Albert is THE role model for what you want in a star player in all the intangible ways. My only knock on Albert is I am a little fearful for his health with the history of hamstring problems, foot problems, and the bad elbow. A-Rod seems to be able to stay a little healthier.

I would also wonder what El Hombre's numbers would be in that Yankee's lineup, or in the King Dome batting in front of Junior in his prime. Now we are talking OPS heaven!!

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Jan 10, 2008 10:42 PM EST reply actions

ESPN discussion

I just checked out the discussion on ESPN...OK, in your first paragraph, you had just as much statistical data to back you up than the entire chat had within it. It was a horrible chat. BLEH!

stlfan

by stlfan on Jan 10, 2008 10:47 PM EST reply actions

Big time discussion....

If I have to pick a Zimmerman I'll take Robert.

Donald over Mickey any day of the week.

If we can't be good, can we at least be lucky?

by cardschinmusic on Jan 11, 2008 5:13 AM EST up reply actions

Ditto on Rob Zimmerman...

But Bugs or Daffy can kick Donald's tail feathers any day of the week, and twice on Sunday! (See "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" for an example!)

But I digress... ;-)

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Jan 12, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

this is still a Cardinals site right?

yeah, OK then.

Albert.

as if there was any doubt.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Jan 11, 2008 12:08 AM EST reply actions

Defense

I would take Albert just because his offense is so much better than A-Rod's. I also think that his great defense may be worth more than is commonly assumed.

The assumption is that a talented defender at 1B is way less valuable than a talented defender at SS. I think Albert's OOZ fielding is so much better than A-Rod's at this point, however, that he gains a lot there.

And I have come to appreciate that having a great defender at 1B compensates for shortcomings of the other infielders, and allows you to have a more mediocre SS than you otherwise could afford. Specifically, Albert's ability to stretch or scoop the ball out of the dirt let us play with Eckstein (and so-so subs for Rolen)at a reasonable salary, without having a bunch of base runners (and errors charged to Eckstein, etc.).

1B defense has the indirect effect on the composition of the rest of the team.

by ncgostl on Jan 11, 2008 11:28 AM EST reply actions