Haren and Wainwright Monthly Splits
by john vb on Sep 4, 2007 5:41 PM EDT
20 comments
A couple months ago when Haren was on track for a Cy Young award, a lot of people re-hashed that trade that sent him to Oakland for Mulder and talked about how badly we made out in that deal. I didn't think much of it, mostly because it took 3 years for him to get to this point. Haren was a combined 28-25 in '05 and '06. Besides, you have to give up something to get something in trade, and while some will work out to be a loss, others work out to be a gain, and I think Jocketty's track record shows many more instances of the latter.
Anyway, many have noticed that Wainwright has steadily improved this year, but I haven't seen any mention of Haren's struggles in the 2nd half. I thought I'd show them side by side for comparison. Full stats after the jump.
Haren (Source):
Month GS W L IP ERA H R ER HR BB SO OPS BAbip sOPS+
+-----+--+-+-+----+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+
Apr 6 3 2 39.1 1.60 30 13 7 3 9 24 .573 .223 56
May 6 3 0 43 1.67 23 8 8 2 11 37 .469 .189 26
June 5 3 0 35.1 2.55 29 11 10 5 9 32 .638 .258 68
July 6 4 1 37.1 4.10 42 19 17 2 11 28 .715 .317 89
Aug 5 1 2 30.1 4.15 35 18 14 7 6 36 .806 .329 106
Sept 1 0 1 6 7.50 11 5 5 1 1 4 1.057 .435 163
Wainwright (Source):
Month GS W L IP ERA H R ER HR BB SO OPS BAbip sOPS+
+-----+--+-+-+----+----+--+--+--+--+--+--+-----+-----+-----+
Apr 5 1 2 29.1 6.14 39 21 20 3 16 21 .913 .375 150
May 5 3 2 27 5.00 39 16 15 1 7 17 .824 .384 121
June 6 2 3 39 3.69 34 17 16 5 14 17 .677 .232 79
July 5 4 1 32 3.09 34 11 11 0 9 26 .657 .340 75
Aug 5 2 1 36 2.00 31 8 8 2 10 32 .618 .287 62
Sept 1 1 0 5.2 1.59 6 2 1 0 3 3 .667 .286 70
It's not really fair to include September, since they've each only had one start, but regardless, you can see that while Haren's ERA for the season is nearly a full run below Wainwright's (2.87 vs 3.78), Adam is clearly trending in the right direction. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't wish any bad luck on Haren. I hope he turns it aroud for his own sake. I just wanted to make sure people notice this as much as they noticed his breakout first half. Personally, I think the Wainwright trade (who would've thought at the time that it would be called that?) more than makes up for the Haren/Mulder trade.
Oh, and as for Daric Barton, the guy everybody was afraid would be tearing it up as a DH within a couple years of the trade, he's yet to get a single AB in the majors. Granted, he's put up some solid numbers in AAA as a 22yr old (.284/.389/.441), and may even get a September call-up this year, but I think Cards fans were a little overly optimistic about him.
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Sure
Also we gave up Barton, and Calero, who was a valuable member of their bullpen for a couple years. We got robbed blind. We should be thanking our stars that Wainwright has turned out so well, and that we were able to get a title after that deal, but Wainwright's success does not mitigate the disaster of a deal in Haren/Calero/Barton for Mulder.
by cardzfan24 on Sep 4, 2007 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Player W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO
D Haren 14 12 3.73 34 34 3 0 217.0 212 101 90 26 53 163
M Mulder 16 8 3.64 32 32 3 2 205.0 212 90 83 19 70 111
Pretty much a wash here.
2006 (thru 14 starts)
Player W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO
D Haren 6 5 3.44 14 14 1 0 96.2 89 38 37 11 17 74
M Mulder 6 4 5.32 14 14 0 0 86.1 99 54 51 16 28 48
The 14 starts takes Mulder up to the White Sox start. It was clear he was at the 'end of his wick', even if they previous 2 games were sure warning signs.
Mulder went belly up at that point, Haren went on to post a 4.63 ERA and go 8-8.
Haren has clearly been able to succeed because of health this year. It will be interesting to see what happens when looking at the 2 next year when both are healthy.
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 4, 2007 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, really
on barton...i dont know if he will pan out or not. thats not really the point. he is still a top prospect and could have been used as trade bait for someone else. we might not have to put up with the sidney ponson and kip wells types if we were able to use barton to acquire a different pitcher.
by dmb60614 on Sep 4, 2007 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You want Haren back?
by Hardcore Legend on Sep 4, 2007 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buying high?
by Zubin on Sep 5, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man
Hopefully that trend will reverse itself or we could be in trouble.
by cardzfan24 on Sep 4, 2007 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes!
by cardzfan24 on Sep 4, 2007 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unfortunately
I'd pass on Haren. He is having a career year and his value is at an alltime high.
by Zubin on Sep 5, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No doubt
by cardzfan24 on Sep 5, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
trade
by dmb60614 on Sep 5, 2007 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any of us would undo
by Zubin on Sep 6, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow...
by kindred on Sep 4, 2007 7:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
by Alxfritz on Sep 5, 2007 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even so
He may not have been as good as his 1.8 something ERA, but I'm not sure anyone is that good. He's DAMN good though, already pitching 191 innings with a 2.87 ERA. Awesome stuff from Haren this year.
And I will say it again, comparing him to Wainwright may make us all feel better, but it is an irrelevant comparison. Mulder has been awful or absent the past two years while Haren has matured and devloped into an excellent pitcher. No more spin. We got absolutely taken in that deal.
by cardzfan24 on Sep 5, 2007 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oswalt for Reyes
We have to remember that at the time Mulder was an Ace, top of his game all star, 17-8 record, 106 ERA+, we traded an unknown but promising pitcher who went 3-3 in 5 starts and some relief with a 4.50 ERA (93 ERA+), a good ML reliever that only had 2 years experience and a promising position prospect.
Yes Mulder got injured and yes there is some evidence that he might have been getting run down but you just can't say it was a bad trade without looking at it in context.
As for the Wainwright/Drew trade we cleaned house on that from the start. Drew was known to have injury issues while Marquis was known to be able to pitch as a 3-4 starter (and he did that for us) and we got one of their top pitching prospects (that they had started to give up on somewhat).
by StLHugo on Sep 5, 2007 8:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oswalt
You are talking about a guy who has a single season career low ERA+ of 123 and a career average of 141 while striking out 1158 batters in just under 1400 innings. Oswalt also has five years in which he posted higher ERA+ than Mulder's single season career high.
Mulder was good, but Oswalt is and was in a class higher than Mulder. I would argue you could say that Haren for Mulder/Calero/Barton trade is bad for many reasons: performance going into trade by all parties, the performance after the trade, especially last year and this year, and the money and years controllable issue.
Haren is much cheaper, and much better than Mulder, and has matched his production pretty much from his first pitch as an A and has far surpassed him now.
by cardzfan24 on Sep 5, 2007 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also forgoten
The guys over at BP predicted at the time and I agreed that Haren was likely to outperfom Mulder from day one for a lot less money.
But, we needed an "ace" and a "vetran" so the mgt ignored the logic and went with emotion.
by DriverZn on Sep 5, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
getting an ace
by dmb60614 on Sep 5, 2007 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
I also think it is relevant to compare Wainwright and Haren. Trades don't happen in a vacuum. We wouldn't have traded Haren if we hadn't picked up Wainwright the year before.
by Stanfan6 on Sep 5, 2007 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
Anyway to the original point, as for this particular trade: In retrospect, it looks horrible, and it has been horrible. We essentially got one good year and one good month out of Mulder, followed by essentially a season and a half of nothing due to injury. In that same time, the A's got a developing starting pitcher who is having a tremendous year, a steady bullpen arm (which is easily replaceable I should point out, (see Franklin), but valuable nonetheless), and a prospect who has done fairly well...However, you really need to look at why the trade was made in the first place, the Cards needed an ace and Mulder was available and fit the bill. You guys mention all these red flags that went up and whatnot, but A)the Cards were in a win now mode and B)if WJ was sure that Mulder was a few starts away from needing his shoulder redone the deal wouldn't have gone down. On the other hand, the pieces involved were a prospect pitcher who was a ? at the time, a young kid catcher who was beyond a ?, and a bullpen arm. So at the time, it was probably a worthwhile risk (just like the Drew/Wainwright, King, Marquis trade for the Bravos). When you're dealing with pitchers its a plain and simple crapshoot, and you can make uber-educated guesses...Had Mulder been a big part of a championship team in 05 I doubt we're even having this conversation.
by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 6, 2007 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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