Preheating the Stove

by stl tyler on Sep 30, 2007 5:56 AM EDT Comment 18 comments

What does everyone hope for the Cardinals to accomplish this offseason? Obviously the biggest need is pitching, but perhaps some other upgrades are possible.

Try to keep the moves at least quasi-realistic. Here's what I'd like to see:

Infield:

Most of the infield is locked in. As far as shortstop is concerned, I don't think we can get Renteria. He's likely the best available shortstop this off-season, and several teams have already inquired about him. I'm totally ok with Brendan Ryan as my everyday shortstop.

If there were a way to get rid of Kennedy, I'd do it and sign Kaz Matsui. It's not happening though.

Outfield:

With the uninspiring shortstop market, if we're adding any bats it's going to have to be in the outfield. I like the idea of an Anthony Reyes/Carlos Quentin trade. If the D'backs won't go for it straight up, throw in a Joe Mather type or a reliever. With Rasmus coming up, this would leave us with a good core of young outfielders for years to come.

Quentin or another outfielder becomes necessary when you consider the platoon splits. If we throw out an outfield of Ludwick/Ankiel/Schumaker against every lefty we face (Duncan and Edmonds sit) then we won't be playing October baseball period.

This is assuming Juan Encarnacion doesn't return next year. I hope the best for him and his continued career, I'm just assuming he won't be with us for at least the majority of next year.

Bench:

First, no new contracts for Aaron Miles and So Taguchi. Taguchi's always been a favorite of mine, but Skip Schumaker has made him a redundant part. The guy's getting on up there, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he retired at the end of the season.

Re-sign Gary Bennett to a one-year deal, or don't and get some other warm body to back up Yadi.

I'm not entirely sure about Ludwick's contract. I know he would have been a minor league FA at the end of this year but I'm not sure how that translates to the majors... In any event I hope and expect him to be our 4th outfielder in 08.

Schumaker takes over the full-time Taguchi role.

Spiezio and Barden will be back, offering insurance for Rolen at 3rd and the middle infield. Call up Jarret Hoffpauir if any more help is necessary.

Goodbye Miguel Cairo.

Goodbye Russell Branyan.

Pitching:

Sign FA Curt Schilling to a one-year deal, perhaps with an 09 option. I'd be willing to spend some money here if I were the Cards, maybe even guarantee him a second year. Shilling offers a veteran presence in the rotation and takes a lot of pressure off of Adam Wainwright. He's not going to win 20 games, but if he stays healthy should manage a good 15 or so with an ERA in the 3.60-3.90 range.

The ChiSox have listed the asking price for Jon Garland as two relievers. I'm a little hazy on what relievers we still have control over next year, but we've got a lot of them. If an offer of some combination of Johnson or Flores and one of our righties can get it done, do it. We have Josh Kinney coming back next year, and would just need to find another left hander somewhere.

Exercise the club option on Joel Piniero.

Other options include Bronson Arroyo and Joe Blanton. I don't think we have what it takes for Blaton, but Cincy could be interested in Duncan if they lose Adam Dunn.

That leaves a rotation of Wainwright, Schilling, Looper, Garland, and Piniero. Note that I'm not including Mulder. That's because I don't expect him to contribute anything in 2008. If anyone falters, Thompson can take their place, and when Carp returns the low performer can shore up the bullpen.

Bullpen:

Re-sign Springer.

Re-sign Percival.

Wellemeyer can stay or go. He wouldn't be bad to have as an insurance policy, especially if we aren't able to sign at least two capable starters.

Sign a decent lefty to take the place of Flores or Johnson from the Garland trade. Josh Kinney will be back to replace the second arm.

Wishful Thinking:

I think Scott Rolen will have a much better year in 08, but I'd still trade him if there were a good option and he'd waive his clause. Apparently the Dodgers are still interested in him. It would be worth Matt Kemp and the salary relief. Also, according to the Sun Sentinel, Miguel Cabrera will be made available this off-season. Trade Rolen for Kemp and then flip Kemp with Duncan and Bryan Anderson and anyone not named Rasmus for Cabrera. Okay, that's a pipe dream, but it would sure be nice.

No reclamation projects. That means no Dontrelle Willis, no Bartolo Colon, etc.

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...Schilling might not...

...wear the Birds on the Bat?

I REALLY dont want to watch Chris Duncan pound Cardinal pitching over the next few years...Id rather see him pound Cincy pitchers and let Arroyo go anywhere else.

Garland and Schilling arent exactly saviors in the rotation unless Carpenters healthy and back in there sooner than later, you dont mention a role for Looper and Josh Kinney is no guarantee. Trade Reyes, yes. I dont think his losses belonged to anybody but Anthony Reyes.

There will be a Duncan/TLR project in the works somewhere in 08, like it or not...Id have to say that Percival, Wellemeyer and Ryan Franklin are pretty successful projects (yes Franklins a project, if thats what you consider Wells). I think Maroth was a roll the dice deal with TLRs old pal Jim Leyland....turned up craps.

Sign Wellemeyer, he can throw 95mph and he might harness it all and become a valuable late innings very affordable closer type.

Keep Rolen, hes the best 3rd baseman in baseball when he's healthy (no, Wrights not there... yet)...period.

Ludwicks a FA, so is Ankiel after 12/12.

I think speed and catching are points to address, as well as the rotation.

Youth movement or not, I want Carpenter, Speezio JEd and Rolen back in '08...yeah, those old guys that play the game like pros.

by cardschinmusic on Sep 30, 2007 7:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Looper's in there..

"That leaves a rotation of Wainwright, Schilling, Looper, Garland, and Piniero"

I agree that Schilling and Garland aren't exactly saviors, but of who's available, who is? Find two better options out of this list of FA starters:

Tony Armas (30) - $5MM mutual option for '08
Kris Benson (33) - $7.5MM club option for '08
Paul Byrd (37) - $8MM club option for '08
Shawn Chacon (30)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33)
Bartolo Colon (35)
Josh Fogg (31)
Casey Fossum (30)
Freddy Garcia (32)
Tom Glavine (42) - $9MM player option for '08
Livan Hernandez (33)*
Jason Jennings (29)
Joe Kennedy (29)
Byung-Hyun Kim (29)
Brian Lawrence (32)
Jon Lieber (38)
Kyle Lohse (29)
Rodrigo Lopez (32)
Greg Maddux (42) - $8.75MM player option or $11MM club option for '08
Eric Milton (32)
Tomo Ohka (32)
Russ Ortiz (34)
Odalis Perez (31) - $9MM club option for '08
Andy Pettitte (36) - $16MM player option for '08
Joel Pineiro (29)
Kenny Rogers (43)
Curt Schilling (41)
Carlos Silva (29)
Julian Tavarez (35) - $3.85MM club option for '08
John Thomson (34)
Brett Tomko (35) - $4.5MM mutual option for '08
Steve Trachsel (37) - $4.75MM club option for '08
Koji Uehara (33)
Jeff Weaver (31)
David Wells (45)
Kip Wells (31)
Randy Wolf (31) - $9MM club option for '08
Jamey Wright (34)
Jaret Wright (32)

And this list of possible trade candidates:

Dontrelle Willis
Carl Pavano
Jose Contreras
Kei Igawa
Matt Morris
Jon Garland
Bronson Arroyo
Joe Blanton

Other than Blanton, Schilling and Garland are among the best of a lousy crop. I hadn't read anything about Schilling not wanting to play in the NL, so that might not be an option.

Also, you think catching needs to be addressed? What's wrong with Yadier? I wouldn't want to spend a lot of money on a backup, Bryan Anderson is probably filling that role by 2009.

by stl tyler on Sep 30, 2007 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...ohhh...

....sorry I missed Looper, my bad. Long winded reply below, my apologies in advance.

No problem with Yadier, just his pickoff throws to 1st base are worth the wait...Yadier is the man behind the plate!

Im thinking we could use a younger more offensive backup that might cover in some other positions on the field, maybe run the bases a little. Too bad Eli could never resume that role for us. I can dream too, huh? Bennets back may be done at 36, he and Stinnet are throwbacks tho, never count'em out.

I watched Anderson play 40-45 games this past season, he MIGHT be backing up in 09. Seven Cardinal AA hitters hit more doubles/extra bases, most of them in 2/3rds or half the number of bats Anderson had. Great average/singles guy this year at AA. My jurys still out on the guy, we'll see how he hits in AAA.

Schilling may want to stay in the AL, as Jill says below. I like Schilling, dont think he can run so well these days?

I wouldnt be picking my pitchers off the FA list anyway, so I cant find better than Schilling.

I dont think we're gonna do any dealing with the CWS, just a gut feeling. When the deal for Beuhrle fell apart, (never got off the ground!) it left me thinking we're done dealing there.

I thought about bringing up Rodriguez re: the best 3rd basemen etc, but can see him playing shortstop again real soon (probably elsewhere) so I left him out. He is having THE career year to dream of, next year will be interesting? Leaving him out was definitely the easiest point I made re: Rolen to attack.

Rolen is still THE best third baseman in baseball when hes healthy, I still say...IF hes healthy...leave him there.

I think we have a few prospects, as you mentioned, if coupled with relievers we can replace, that might get us a good solid innings type pitcher. Thats why I think Wellemeyer has value, look at his last 10 trips to the mound (under TLR and Duncan), he might fill a void in the pen for us in the near future.

Theyre all gonna ask for Rasmus tho, so maybe Duncan will go...hopefully not to the Reds, but to an AL team that needs a power hitting 1st baseman?

Youth movement or not, I want Carpenter, Speezio JEd and Rolen back in '08...yeah, those old guys that play the game like pros.

by cardschinmusic on Oct 1, 2007 7:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree re: Duncan

If we do have to trade him, it would be much better to send him to an AL team. I don't think the A's have any need for him, otherwise he might mark the beginning of a deal for Joe Blanton. Though that conversation would probably start and end with the name "Rasmus". Sigh.

As far as I'm concerned, the only "untouchable" prospects are Rasmus and Perez. Anyone else can be had for the right deal. I'd like to hang on to Bryan Anderson, but would be willing to part with him for a real #2 type starter. I believe in Yadier Molina.

by stl tyler on Oct 1, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

I'm sure you're right about a reclamation project. That's why it's listed under wishful thinking.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Jeff Weaver back.

I'd like Duncan to stay too, but somethings gotta give somewhere. We HAVE to sign pitchers and we NEED to find at least one that isn't coming off the scrap heap. If Duncan's the only way to get one, that might be how it has to be done, though maybe we could do better than Arroyo. I'm sure a few more pitchers than the ones listed above will wind up on the trade market.

by stl tyler on Sep 30, 2007 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

...agree...

Trade market will be probably be the key, we have some relief to spare where a lot of teams are short...Carpenter and Mulder are going to be counted on by mgement. to be back at some point while deals are being made, even if we try to think around and beyond it.

....and I agree with Hardcore, Wrights not better than an uninjured Rolen...yet! Maybe someday...and I think Wright knows that too! Rolen may also be the toughest guy Ive ever seen play the game. Well see how Wright deals with injuries as well...

If TLR is back, he might WANT to be traded? They had "a talk" a few weeks back. Who knows?

Youth movement or not, I want Carpenter, Speezio JEd and Rolen back in '08...yeah, those old guys that play the game like pros.

by cardschinmusic on Oct 1, 2007 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A-Rod

is a third baseman, you know. And Wright is better than Rolen, I hate to tell you.

Let me get this straight...Rowand over Pujols??? Really, Tony?

by cardzfan24 on Sep 30, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rolen

That argument could probably be made last year, b/c Scotty did have a fine year last year. And he's still a great fielder. But D Wright has arrived and is going nowhere but up. Miguel Cabrera is turning himself into Carlos Lee and is a pretty crummy fielder, but he can absolutely rake. ARod is having the best year a 3Bman has ever had. Even if Rolen was in the middle of one of his 280/360/550, 28, 100 seasons, that doesn't match up to ARod or Wright.

by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 30, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do you figure?

IF Rolen was putting up those numbers, I would hope his defense makes up for the batting average and 7 RBIs. David Wright has 21 errors at 3rd base this year. He's only slightly better defensively than Ryan Braun.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 30, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope you are kidding

Comparing Wright to Braun??? Braun may be the worst fielder at any position at his age to ever enter the major leagues. David Wright is an excellent fielding 3rd baseman and may win the Gold Glove this year with Rolen having the injury. Yes, he made some errors, but he also has outstanding range. Ozzie Smith had a few high error seasons where he won a gold glove. (mostly based on range.)

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Oct 1, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking only of defense

Of NL third basemen who started over 100 games in 2007, Wright rates towards the top of the bottom half in fielding percentage, just below Jose Bautista and Ryan Zimmerman, and just ahead of Edwin Encarnacion and Miguel Cabrera. He's taken a pretty hard nose dive defensively as compared to years past. However, he's still far superior to Ryan Braun. Braun, ranks dead last, by a lot. Wright's range factor is almost a full point higher than Braun's, suggesting he gets to many more balls than Braun, thus increasing his chance of making an error on a difficult play that Braun gets no where near to.

Rolen, by comparison, is fourth is fielding percentage, behind only Pedro Feliz, Aramis Ramirez, and Chipper Jones. Rolen has the third highest range factor among eligible third basemen (Nunez has the highest), and is second in zone rating only to Pedro Feliz. Only Chipper Jones and Abraham Nunez had less errors (both with 9 to Rolen's 10) It is worth noting that Rolen baaarely qualifies, as he only played 112 games this season. Also keeping in consideration, Nunez played 113 and Braun 112.

Rolen is still very much among the upper elite of defensive third basemen, and if he'd played a dozen or so more games you could certainly make a Gold Glove argument.

Assuming the Gold Glove actually goes to the best player defensively, Pedro Feliz deserves it. Highest fielding percentage, highest zone rating, and a mere 11 errors in 143 games (only Wright, Zimmerman, and Cabrera played more). Nunez could also garner some serious consideration. But, seeing as how offensive effectiveness tends to figure into the Gold Gloves (it really shouldn't) it's more likely to go to Chipper Jones or Aramis Ramirez.

by stl tyler on Oct 1, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correcting my mistake

Nunez isn't qualified. I was looking at games played, should have looked at games started. Nunez was used frequently as a pinch hitter or defensive replacement.

That would make Rolen second best in both Range Factor and Zone Rating.

by stl tyler on Oct 1, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The thing is:

He's not putting up those numbers, and Wright is putting up numbers that are even better than those by a fairly considerably margin. Wright put up about a .950 OPS with 30 HRs and 107 RBI and a .325 average.

The only season Rolen has had better in his career than Wright's last season was 2004, if you go by OPS+. (160 to 152)

Also, keep in mind that Wright has shown greater speed(stealing 34 bags) and durability.

All things considered, saying "If Rolen were putting up those numbers" at this point is a pretty big if. I love Rolen, he's still the best defensive third baseman in the game, but saying he's the best overall in the game is just foolish when you consider David Wright and A-Rod playing 3rd.

by mtalken on Oct 1, 2007 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ludwick and Ankiel

I saw that you listed those 2 as FA but I am pretty sure both are under club control this off season. Ludwick would have been a minor league free agent if not on the 40 man roster but he is almost certainly there and I am not sure if he is even arbitration eligble yet. Ankiel is arbitration eligble but not a free agent just yet so he may be expensive but he isn't a FA.

by StLHugo on Oct 1, 2007 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have read that Schilling is not interested

in returning to the NL because he doesn't want to have to bat....not that he's lazy or anything, just doesn't want the extra wear and tear on his legs, so I don't even know if he's a reasonable option. He also had some arm injury problems this year-might be best to take a look at someone else.

by jillsinmo on Sep 30, 2007 7:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pineiro

could be the reclamation project Duncan wants for next year...

stlfan

by stlfan on Sep 30, 2007 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have to wonder

What might become of felipe lopez this off season. Some have speculated that he might be a non tender candidate, but I bet Bowden will hold onto him in hopes of a trade. Lopez is only one year removed from a .274/.358/.381 campaign with 44 stolen bases, and just 27 years old. He's entering walk year and will probably command around 4.5 million in arbitration.
If Washington shops him, there's a chance he could have a nice bounce back year, and could be a steal.

I love lamp

by Some witty name on Sep 30, 2007 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs