Changes for '08 via Post-Dispatch

by mtalken on Sep 30, 2007 10:15 AM EDT

Article Link: http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/C867D5E1D90CC85486257366000EA984 ?OpenDocument

Main points of the article:
-12 players account for 83M in salary.
-Season ending figures indicate the Cardinals brought in 102M this year.
-DeWitt is likely to authorize a higher budget this next year, in the range of 105-110M.
-TLR's decision is expected to come after he takes some time in California, but from the way he talks, expect a decision fairly quickly so that the team can move on to its needs by the time Hot Stove really kicks into gear.
-Due to the Carp/Mulder injuries, Duncan is quoted saying "I don't think you can count on either guy until you see them on the field performing as they have in the past," and is saying that the Cardinals need two top-flight pitchers.
-Club officials believe $110M in the budget necessary to retool the team to be successful in '08.
-Anthony Reyes is not expected to be part of the plans for the rotation in 2008.
-Joel Pineiro is expected to be brought back to fill the role of 5th starter.

That should hopefully clear up some of the speculation we all have.

The article also has very telling stats on the right column showing how bad the offense and pitching has been compared to recent seasons, having scored about 80 fewer runs than last season and 150+ less than 2003 and 2004. We also had a 5.08 ERA for the rotation in only 875 innings. The highwater mark for our team over the past six years is a 3.61 ERA in 1048 innings in 2005.

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$110 M payroll

that makes a trade for Renteria involving Reyes economically possible for the team now. Renteria's $6 M would only increase them to $48.75 for the starting 8.

I'd imagine that Ankiel will get a $1.25 M contract for next year. Likewise for Ludwick. Taguchi will retire. Molina will be upgraded to $1 M.

In all honesty, the bullpen might be back in tact. Percy wants to take the first 2 months off and return and Springer, if he still wants to pitch, only wants to do it in St. Louis. So, the Cardinals will have Izzy, Franklin, Springer, Kinney, Flores, Johnson out there again.

Anyways, adding Renteria and Pineiro and letting Eckstein, Taguchi, Bennett, Maroth walk moves the payroll roughly up to $ 96.4 M with a need for 2 starters and atleast 1 more 'impact' bat if the Cardinals want. That would give them roughly $14 M to spend on pitching. If they bring back Brad Thompson as a starter until Mulder comes back or can show he can be useful in any way, then you really do have atleast $13 M to spend on a starting pitcher. There is a FA starting pitcher that currently is making $13 M a year, his name is Curt Schilling.

This sounds harsh but the Cardinals need to push Juan into retirement. Promise him that if he regains his vision, they'll give him a 1 year/$6.5 M deal or something but if he retires before next season, the Cardinals will have $20 M in free payroll (after acquiring Renteria) to get pitching.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 30, 2007 11:50 AM EDT reply actions

In the diary below this

I suggested we pursue Schilling, and another poster informed me that he's stated he won't pitch in the NL.

Also, if we let Bennett walk, who's our backup catcher? Not the most important piece of the puzzle for sure, but we've got to have somebody. Bryan Anderson needs to stay in the minors and continue to get consistent at bats, and the Memphis catchers are absolutely dreadful.

I am glad to see the organization willing to kick up the payroll to 110M.

by stl tyler on Sep 30, 2007 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I also left out the fact that

if the Cardinals decided to go patch work with the rotation again:

Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro
Thompson
Wellemeyer

and dropped Izzy's option, they'd have $30 M to spend on an impact bat. Any ideas who is an impact bat that costs $30 M and fills a need in the infield?

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 30, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

That rotation

Patchwork as it is, would probably outperform the 07 staff for the simple reason that no one named Kip is in it.

by stl tyler on Sep 30, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Izzy?

why not pick up Izzy's option? We do need a closer, right?

"Show me a guy who takes his time on the mound and I'll show you a damned loser." - Leo Durocher

by mattyfrommo on Sep 30, 2007 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Memphis Catchers

"the Memphis catchers are absolutely dreadful."

Totally agree.

Saw a game in Memphis in May and the guy -- I think it was Christianson -- had a TERRIBLE arm. Couldn't hit the bag even when the pitcher was done with his warm-ups.

by thepainguy on Sep 30, 2007 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

May

Is a fun month to be in Memphis, lots going on. I lived there for about eight years.

by stl tyler on Sep 30, 2007 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Backup Catcher

I like Todd Greene. He's got a respectable arm for a backup catcher and swings a decent bat.

Signed a split-contract with the Padres this year and injured himself in ST.

by liam on Sep 30, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Disagree on Renteria

Why would you want to pursue a below average feilding shortstop who is going to be 32 next year and coming off a near career-year?

IMO, we need a good feilding shortstop, especially considering the state of our starting pitching. I rather take a chance on a guy like Ryan than rent Edgar-ria.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Sep 30, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Ryan

I like Ryan and think he's got some tools, but I have serious doubts that he'll be anything more than a faster Eckstein who gets on base less. His minor league stats aren't terribly eye popping. A Rent-eria is giving us a better player for one year, and while that isn't ideal, I don't think its the most terrible idea either. Put Edgar at SS, Kennedy at 2B, and Ryan as the reserve middle IF swing type guy.

by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 30, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

How much are you going to give up for a rental?

It is a terrible idea if you sacrifice the future for a better 2008 when it figures to be a rebuilding year anyway.

Seriously, the window of oportunity with the MVP has closed; we got our championship. What we should look at isn't how we can make a 70-something win team a 80-something win team for one year, its how we can build another sustaining 90-something win team in a couple of years.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Sep 30, 2007 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

Jimmy Rollins is a below-avg fielding shortstop coming off a career year. I wouldn't be sad if he was on our team; same with Renteria.

by spants on Sep 30, 2007 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Rollins

and Renteria are in slightly different classes. Rollins is far superior, I believe he even led the league in extra base hits and he could win the MVP. For all of the talk about Granderson's accomplishments, Rollins has been better.

Let me get this straight...Rowand over Pujols??? Really, Tony?

by cardzfan24 on Sep 30, 2007 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I take it back

slightly at least. Rollins is better I believe but not nearly as better as I thought. Renteria is three years older though, and had some health concerns this year. Depending on what we give up, it would be nice to get him (Renteria).

Let me get this straight...Rowand over Pujols??? Really, Tony?

by cardzfan24 on Sep 30, 2007 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

The Gooch wants to come back...

I wouldn't mind him in a bench role. Hopefully he would not have to be overly exposed as he was this year.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Sep 30, 2007 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions

if juan is hurt

so bad he cant play, im sure the cards carry insurance on him
i would hope so anyway
does anyone know this?

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Sep 30, 2007 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know where to look to find out

But I believe I recall someone posting on here that we do not have insurance on Enc's contract.

by stl tyler on Oct 1, 2007 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

...well....that would be ME

Im the "some other poster" that said Schilling may not want to come back to the NL and if you go back and pay attention, there was "another poster" saying she'd heard much the same. We hsall both be nameless! LOL!

Ive been looking/running searches for an article that supports Schilling saying this, but a friend says he made the statement on sports radio in late Aug. and it cropped up on ESPN that eve on BT with Kruk... when asked about returning to Boston or maybe ending his career in Philadelphia or back home in Phoenix he said the ankle may not be up to swinging the bat and running out grounders so it may be another AL team, but he'd see what Boston wants to do....my buddy is a newspaper/ radio sports hound with no WWW and actually pays attention to Curts ramblings since he's a huge Diamondbacks fan, still rubbing the recent sweep in my face.

Youth movement or not, I want Carpenter, Speezio JEd and Rolen back in '08...yeah, those old guys that play the game like pros.

by cardschinmusic on Oct 3, 2007 3:39 AM EDT up reply actions

The extra payroll

indicates to me that LaRussa will return. My guess has always been that he'd want some assurances that this team will be competitive next year and the additional payroll will help facilitate that.

There were 2 quotes that stood out -- 1 from Walt and 1 from Tony.

From Walt, "We're going to have to take a hard look at our roster and make some significant changes," Jocketty said. "Injuries really hurt us this year. We have to address our starting rotation, and we probably need to add an impact bat." The team has only placed band-aids over the last couple of years. This is the first real acknowledgement that there is a lot of work to do.

From Tony, "There's only one pitcher who fit our club that was reasonable who we didn't get," La Russa said. That's patently false. Ted Lilly got a relatively reasonable 4 years, $40 M contract and is 24th in VORP among pitchers. He was a reasonable buy last offseason and the Cards never showed a lick of interest -- likely b/c he's a flyball pitcher. He's going to be pitching Game 2 for the NL Central champs and, BTW, they have a pretty good shot, b/c of their starting pitching, of winning the NL this year.

by chuckb on Sep 30, 2007 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

Lilly

Is also having a season completely out of line with his career numbers. He's only been below 4 in the ERA column once. He's only been below 1.2 in the WHIP column once. He's got a nasty habit of being below 2:1 on his K/BB ratio. And, this is also the first time he's gone over 200 innings. I will acknowledge that some of that probably had to do with playing in the AL East vs. BOS/NYY several times, and doing it in a hitter's park. But the results simply weren't enough to justify a big deal at the time. Basically, he was like all of the other mediocre pitchers that got 10 million per year deals last year. The Cards wanted Schmidt and to resign Suppan. However, they also didn't want to do anything crazy. That restraint has bit us in the butt this year, but signing a Jason Schmidt type and having him go down, coupled with Carp's injury, would have been devastating and would have handcuffed us for years.

by redbirdnation8206 on Sep 30, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't agree

well, I will agree that a lot of it has to do w/ hitter's ballparks and facing the Sox and Yanks 30+ times per year. But, as for being out of line w/ his career numbers -- not so much.

K/9 BB/9 GB% HR/G
2004 7.7 4.1 35.1 1.20
2005 6.5 3.9 36.7 1.56
2006 7.7 3.9 37.7 1.35
2007 8.0 2.5 33.8 1.30

In 2005, he was injured. In '04 and '06 he threw 197 and 182 innings. As for '07, the only #s that are out of line are his BB/9 this year. His K/9 has gone up a little, probably due to facing the pitcher and NL hitters. So while the decrease in his BB/9 wasn't forseeable, the rest was. His HR/G would have been lower in Busch, also, due to the fact that Busch is a tougher place in which to hit homers.

So success in the NL was entirely predictable. We avoided him probably due to the low GB%. We probably shouldn't have expected him to be as good as he's been, but w/ the consistent K/9 and Busch's park factor, we should have known he'd be pretty good.

by chuckb on Sep 30, 2007 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Ted Lilly has always been a good pitcher, and

he's always had stats in line with this year. The difference is in his won and loss record, and he was on some poor offensive teams in the past. I agree with houstoncardinal-you're wrong about Lilly.

by jillsinmo on Sep 30, 2007 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

And the Cardinals should be ashamed they

let the Cubs get him. I love him-a lefty with stuff-he's fun to watch.

by jillsinmo on Sep 30, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Lilly is the poster child for why

ERA and W/L should NOT BE USED to predict a pitchers future success.

by DriverZn on Sep 30, 2007 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

They didn't pursue Lilly

And I think that's the real point being made there.

by mtalken on Sep 30, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Patently False

The next paragraph in the article says the pitcher he's talking about is Miguel Batista. So in TLR's estimation, Ted Lilly isn't a fit for the club.

That's debatable, of course. He pitched pretty well in Busch this year.

by liam on Sep 30, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I really don't ge the hangup on certain players

Batista? Why? Whats he done that makes TLR/Duncan love him.

Schmidt? Why did we want him. All trends were pointing down. They turned out to be right. Not a GB pitcher, why the one exception here?

Mulder? Yes he had been very good, again trending badly. I understood the re-sign, calculated risk that hasn't paid off.

To me Lilly was the obvious pitcher with upside this winter. Not sure why he was completly overlooked. Meche has surprised a lot of people but I understand why we passed there.

We really need to start looking for the best players available, not just pet projects for TLR and Duncan.

by DriverZn on Sep 30, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Batista actaully has good stuff

and had pitched well in the AL. His problem has been inconsistent command of his pitches-- I think Duncan thought he could fix that.

Cardinal fan from Washington

by JI on Oct 1, 2007 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions

A pitcher isn't always going to have

command of all their pitches. Sometimes they have arm fatigue. Sometimes they just can't get a feel for a pitch. Sometimes weather affects the break on a pitch. That isn't something that is fixable by Duncan.

by azruavatar on Oct 1, 2007 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions

that was exactly my point

though, perhaps, I didn't make it clearly. The pitcher that he says was a reasonable fit was Miguel Batista but my point is that Lilly was also a reasonable fit that the Cards never pursued.

by chuckb on Sep 30, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Please understand WHY Meche was

overpaid--KC identified him as the ONE pitcher they wanted. He would not have come to KC unless they overpaid him. It was not a stupid move on their part-they wanted a youngish veteran to anchor a young staff....in case you haven't checked in on the Royals lately, they have a boatload of good young pitching talent. Some of it is already in KC, the rest is on the way from the minors. They look to him to fill the veteran leadership role--and so far, they were right.

by jillsinmo on Sep 30, 2007 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions

...Lilly...

Im beginning to buy in on the Lilly debate supporting his past performance being shadowed by sub-par Toronto... because pitching at Wrigley HAS to be one of the "tests of all tests" and his stuff was consistent over the entire season.

BUT...he was also declared "uncoachable" by Arnsberg and Gibbons in 06 and his curveball could be all over the place from one strat to another.

I think/wonder if that might be a bigger deterent to winding up under Duncan than his being a fly-ball pitcher? ....whereas somebody like Lou savors the "uncoachables" and showin'em a thing or three.

I still think a winning and coachable pitcher is more important to TLR and the org. than the way he gets outs. I want to believe the way they perceive production and the way a pitcher fills a need for the team is the biggest part of the decision to "like somebody".

The summary on Meche and KC is right on the $, it was exactly that and thats who they wanted and then went out and signed.

Youth movement or not, I want Carpenter, Speezio JEd and Rolen back in '08...yeah, those old guys that play the game like pros.

by cardschinmusic on Oct 3, 2007 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Pineiro

I've gotta say -- out of all our crazy midseason acquisitions, I've liked Joel the most. I think he could be a decent number 5 guy for our team next year.

On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Sep 30, 2007 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

What I find most odd is that he is being

brought back as a #5 starter. That is silly to think the Looper is going to be anything better than a #5 next year. I honestly believe that Pineiro will outpitch Braden in '08.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 30, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I think people are overly high

about Loop's performance this year because he is a first year starter. I think they will try to trade Loop.

The St. Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champions!

by Zubin on Sep 30, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

actually

I really don't. This was his first ever year as a starter thus he was having obvious stamina issues. He'll be a little stronger this year and he pitches great when he's fresh.

by rocKStark5 on Sep 30, 2007 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

La Russa is coming back

That's what this passage says to me:

"There's only one pitcher who fit our club that was reasonable who we didn't get," La Russa said. "It was a great year for pitchers to be pitchers. A lot of guys got extra money and extra years. I have no problem as the manager of the major-league club not going for that. Because at some point I think you have regrets."

The article also makes the clearest claim I've read of how opposed Jocketty is to Luhnow's ascent.

by liam on Sep 30, 2007 3:41 PM EDT reply actions

Whoops

Houston Cardinal already pointed out this exact passage above. 'Scusem.

by liam on Sep 30, 2007 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmmm?

The big picture:

The 2007 team had these weaknesses:
Health
Speed
Defense
Power
Starting Pitching

The Strengths
Deep Bullpen
Good bench hitting
Left handed hitting outfielders with holes in their games.

What to do for 2008.

Health: Go to church...and find out why these guys are so freakin' fragile.

Speed: This is a tough one. Trade for a shortstop with wheels. You are stuck with a pretty slow bunch at all other positions.

Defense: Hopefully, that fast shortstop is a defensive wizzard...that would help alot. Health would cure the rest.

Power: Only health will fix this one unless this speedy defensive wizzard shortstop has some serious righthanded pop in his bat.

Starting Pitching: I have seen the list of available free agents and tradable guys...yikes! It is a list full of question marks. Roll the dice guys...every one of those guys looks like a potential bust and many of the ones with upside have health issues. This is the biggest sellers' market for pitchers in a long time. Maybe you get someone else's Anthony Reyes for ours and trade Duncan for someone else's #3.

Evaluation: This list makes you think about trying to get AROD (1 in 250,000,000 chance) and grab a couple of project pitchers.

The next closest would be to get Renteria and try for the better guys on the list.

My thoughts as an amateur GM?
Adding $8MM to the payroll can't fix this team's problems for 2008.
Only make trades and signings with an eye toward 2009 and beyond.

Guys I would trade:(with respectable return only)
Franklin: He will never duplicate 07 success
Reyes: If LaRussa and Duncan are back, he's gone.
Duncan: I can't watch his defense and I think Ludwick is just as good.
There are others, but these are the 3 that I think you can get fair return for.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Oct 1, 2007 5:57 PM EDT reply actions