giant implications

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 9:26 AM EDT in News Comment 179 comments

with four days to go in the season, the cubs have the most secure lead of any nl division leader --- 2 games. they can thank the cardinals for that. st louis won not only the game vs milwaukee but also the psychological war, as ned yost foolishly took la russa's bait and earned his third ejection in four games. the brewers' 8th-inning plunking of pujols was extraordinarily immature --- which is not to say that the cards' hbp of prince fielder in the 2d was an act of great enlightenment. it was just the latest escalation of a pissing match that tony initiated back on monday night, when the cardinals beaned corey hart in a blowout. my guess is tlr saw his team checking out with a week to go and concocted an "insult" to get their heads back into what's left of the season. or maybe he found his own interest wavering; it's been a long time since he managed such a meaningless series. whatever the case, the cards provoked this particular fight, and then they escalated it last night by retaliating for a couple of brushbacks with a pitch in fielder's ribs. a savvier manager than yost would have waited until 2008 to take his revenge; the brewers still had a reasonable chance to win the game (win expectancy of about 27 percent at the time of the pujols plunking) and ought not to have been distracted by extracurriculars. insofar as the free baserunner touched off a 4-run rally that snuffed out the brewers' chances, the gamesmanship obviously backfired. it wasn't the dumbest move yost has made in this pennant race, but it adds to the doubts about his fitness to manage in pressure-packed circumstances.

further commentary on the beanballism from the brewer camp and from bernie last night at his blog.

* * * * * * * * * * *

the suggestion was made in yesterday's thread that VEB should adopt a playoff team this october; i like the idea. once the national league field is finalized (which, at the rate things are going, won't happen until monday night), i'll post a poll; whoever wins will have the honor of our community's endorsement. i also have been thinking of holding a postseason contest of some sort --- essentially a tournament bracket, with the objective being to predict the series winner, score in games, and series mvp of all 7 postseason matchups. the cards won't be involved, but it's still october --- the best time of year for baseball fans.

* * * * * * * * * * *

watching the highlights of barry bonds' last game in san francisco, i started perusing the giants' roster and decided they might be a good trade partner for the cardinals. san francisco is desperate for young position players --- only 1 player under age 30 took more than 200 at-bats for them this year --- and they have a surplus of talented young pitchers that includes matt cain, tim lincecum, jonathan sanchez, and kevin correia. they also have noah lowry, who is less talented and less young but surely is available. i saw one article recently suggesting that the giants might be willing to deal an arm or two; what sort of package could the cardinals offer? it depends on who the target is. for noah lowry, it wouldn't make sense to offer much; he's slightly damaged goods (has a bone spur in his elbow that kept him out of action the entire month of september), and his strikeout rates have plummeted the past couple of years, to the point that his k/bb this year was 1:1. he also has a career 4.85 era away from san francisco. lowry does come extremely cheap, however --- under contract for $2.3m next year and $4.5m in 2009, with a $6.3m option for 2010. and he did go 14-8, 3.92 this season; despite the declining peripherals, he is not entirely without value. if --- and it's a pretty sizeable if --- he can maintain a league-average level for the life of that contract, he'd be a tremendous bargain. accordingly, the giants' asking price will be high --- they'd probably want chris duncan, who is a perfect fit for them. i think duncan's worth more than that, and i wouldn't make that deal --- but if they'd accept ankiel plus a sweetener or two instead, i would pull the trigger. i don't think the giants will have to sell lowry that cheap, however. they'll surely get a better offer.

bobbyballgame1 recently proposed trading dunc for a young starter, and the idea has some merit. since duncan makes so much sense for the giants, the cards could offer him plus, say, brendan ryan or brad thompson or anthony reyes and request lowry plus sanchez or correia in return. (ryan also makes a lot sense for the giants --- omar vizquel's contract is up, and san francisco does not have an in-house replacement ready. another logical fit for that organization would be mark hamilton.) sanchez is the cards' type of pitcher --- ie, he throws a hard sinker --- and he has outrageously good minor-league numbers. he's also left-handed. the giants have used him mainly in relief the past two seasons, but he was primarily a starting pitcher in the minor leagues. he'll be 25 next season. correia is entering his arb-eligible years, which makes him a good trade target; in 26 career starts he is 8-5 with a 4.19 era, including a 3-0, 2.02 stint this year since joining the rotation on august 25. he, too, throws a sinker. correia turned 27 last month.

let's say this deal were to happen. if things go as planned, the rotation is now set for several years --- wainwright, looper, lowry, correia/sanchez, and mulder to open 2008, with carp returning in august; wainwright / carp / lowry / correiasanchez would all be under club control at least through 2010. the cards then buy one or more run-producing free-agent outfielders to replace duncan -- the market will be full of them, and the cards should be able to get themselves at least one reasonable deal. the loss of duncan would make the everyday lineup nominally older in the short term, but in 2009 the rasmus / anderson crop of prospects should arrive to freshen things up.

it'd be risky, as lowry might be on the verge of imploding and neither correia nor sanchez is a sure thing. but the cards are in a position where risks are in order. a trade of this type would have a reasonable chance to yield one solid long-term piece for the rotation, with the potential to add two pieces and settle the rotation quandary for several years. anybody with me?

a less risky alternative: simply go after correia, with ryan or ankiel as the primary bait, and leave duncan and lowry out of it.

0 recs | Comment 179 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I like where you're headed

Look, I like Dunc as much as the next guy, but there are dozens of players like him--avg fielder (at best), avg hitter, avg power. But he's young which makes him a nice trade chip. Pitching should clearly be Jock's priority and stocking the team with young, promising talent is imperitive.

You worry about the outfield though. If you trade Dunc, only Ankiel is a sure bet to be back and productive. Jed's done. Juan may not play again. That leaves 2 spots to fill. Not sure Lud is the answer there. But it'll be a lot less difficult to find value at a corner OF position than at starting pitcher.

by Knish on Sep 27, 2007 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Ludwick

would be OK. He has proven he can field well, hit for power, and draw a walk. I would not be disappointed if we made moves for pitching that resulted in Luddy becoming a regular.

by hit and run on Sep 27, 2007 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ankiel a sure bet?

Not sure why Ankiel would be more of a sure bet than Ludwick - Ankiel has gone through a torrid hot streak followed by a brutal slump. Can he be a productive player for a full year? I'm not sure we can say yet. Ludwick has at least been exposed for a much longer period and has held up fairly well. All that said, I still think we need another bat - Ludwick seems better suited for the 4th OF to me...

by mcg96 on Sep 27, 2007 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ankiel isn't a sure bet

but he has the potential to be one of the best OF's in the game. If we traded him now it would be selling way low, because he hasn't had the time to really prove himself. Combine that with TLR's passion for seeing him succeed and there is no way he is moving.

The same really goes for Duncan, due to the hernia that hurt his second half performance- if he could have put up a whole season of .930 OPS ball we could have traded him straight up for almost anyone.

Why do you think Ludwick is better suited to be a 4th outfielder? The early problems he had this year were due to pressing, trying to do too much. He's been outstanding since those first two really bad weeks, showing improvement in every facet of his hitting game and providing the best defense on the team imho. He's a good pinch hitter, but all that really shows is that he is capable of being a good hitter. He needs to be in the lineup every day.

An OF of Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick could be the best in the league imho.

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 27, 2007 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree on those trades

I like the trade ideas. Mine have been mainly for Bonderman with Dunc as the primary but I like the Giants idea as well.

Reading that Brewers blog I ran across his comeback to the deadspin post about world series tickets. I don't think the author realizes that the location of the WS isn't set until days before the series regardless of how the home field is decided.

Anyway wacky game last night, really really wacky.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Injuries

I don't like Bonderman's injury history at all.

by silent_bob on Sep 27, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bonderman

You are just seeing that start of Bonderman's injury problems.

His mechanics aren't as bad as Reyes', but they are close.

by thepainguy on Sep 27, 2007 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

your formula for evaluating mechanics is reliable or valid at this point.

Keep accumulating data for 5 years then get back to me.

There's too many extraneous variables present in terms of shoulder/arm injuries for you to make predictive statements like that.

by silent_bob on Sep 27, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And even pitchers who do it right all

the time get hurt.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade Value

I like the approach of looking at trade theory team by team. You can probably knock out more than half as not having any prospective match-ups or other reasons that trades can't be done.

I also think we have more LH OF's than we can (or should) have on the roster. Of them , dunc is probably the best candidate for attracting the return talent we want. That said I was a little surprised by your comparison of two of our favorites:

duncan's worth = ankiel plus a sweetener or two

That may be true in trade value, but I would rather hold on to ankiel plus the sweetener. Let's just find some way to get a real (healthy) pitcher.

Play Roy Hobbs Everyday!

by Birds on the Bat on Sep 27, 2007 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is it bad

that when a pitcher is described as "damaged goods" my immediate thought is that the Cardinals want him?

I agree the Giants are good team to trade with, but since their surplus is with young pitching they can almost deal with anyone.

by enoscountry on Sep 27, 2007 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that's a good point

the giants are the "type O" of organizations --- the universal donor.

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

that Sanchez would be perfect for us. I have been a fan of his minor league numbers and think that if given the shot, will produce well in a starter's role. I don't like the idea of dealing Duncan, but he seem to be the most likely to get anything worthwhile back. Sweetners to the deal like Hamilton make sense too, since there isn't really a spot for him.

by JBagKY on Sep 27, 2007 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

Is pretty much our best trading chip--I suggested him being dealt with Reyes and more in a different type of deal yesterday on my blog. Not sure how that'd go over with Dave and Tony (since I believe both will be back) but it is almost a necessity to get any kind of proven commodity.

And CCH will have postseason YNOTs up soon that will have those kind of questions in them, for added October fun.

C70 at the Bat

by Cardinal70 on Sep 27, 2007 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Would management trade Duncan and/or Ankiel

I don't have a problem with using Duncan and/or Ankiel to get pitching, but I wonder if this management team (Jocketty/LaRussa) would trade either one given their ties to the organization. I have a hard time believing that Tony would let Dave's son go and his own "son" Ankiel also get traded given all he's gone through. I hope they prove me wrong but I think they are going to have to be floored by an offer before they would pull the trigger.

by lefty fan on Sep 27, 2007 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they'll trade Ankiel

because of his history and their longterm relationship with him. I also think, from Tony's remarks, he thinks he could become a spectacular player. So for personal and strategic reasons, I don't see them trading Ankiel.

Duncan may be a possibility. We don't know if he likes working right under his father's eyes. Maybe he would prefer playing elsewhere. But if he wants to stay, I don't see them trading him either.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

Personally, I think Duncan is the best trading chip the Cardinals have, and moving him for pitching help is a pretty good idea. That said, I think he should be worth more than Lowry. I don't care if he's cheap, I don't think he's very good. He also happens to be a bit of a flyball pitcher; we've seen how that works out here.

Sanchez, on the other hand, I really like. I would still hope Jocketty could pry another minor league arm away from the Giants for Duncan in addition, but that's more the kind of guy I would like to see the Cards target.

The Giants are probably a good fit as far as a trading partner, but I think the Twins might be an even better one. They have no DH to speak of, they need more pop in their lineup, and they need to find options that won't cost an arm and a leg. I wonder what it would take, beyond Chris, to pry Garza away from them? Or, hell, as long as I'm just throwing stuff at the wall, with the surplus of young starters they have, maybe they'd be willing to part with Liriano. I know he's damaged goods, but elbows are better than shoulders, and he's scary good.

Free to a good home.

by the red baron on Sep 27, 2007 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Santana

I still wonder what Santana would take in a trade, the Twins keep talking about trading him so I just don't know. It would be a one year trade at least for now unless we could sign him to an extension but he would be exactly what we need, it might take more then Dunc but I would want to see what before doing anything.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stop

We don't have anything that could fetch Santana outside of Pujols. We could deal our entire farm system, Duncan, Reyes Ankiel etc and we would not get Santana.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Sep 27, 2007 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the eternal dilemma w/ tony + dave

i agree w/ you that sanchez is the best out of these three pitchers in terms of raw ability, but he's young and mistake-prone and not "proven" (like, say, kip wells . . . .). he does not fit the profile of pitchers who've been successful under this management team (either here or in oak/chi), which gives me great pause.

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah,

you're right on the money with that, Lb. Sanchez isn't the sort of pitcher that Tony and Dave like. Unfortunately, just about any time that I come up with a move I really believe would make the team better, it always seems to fall in the category of things Tony and Dave wouldn't want to do. I wonder if that says more about me or them?

Free to a good home.

by the red baron on Sep 27, 2007 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it sucks that we have to

run every personnel daydream through the "tony / dave" filter. it's not enough simply to evaluate a player on his tools and performance; you also have this other amorphous factor to consider.

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

I've thought for quite a while that this management team is entirely too dogmatic. There seems to be only one acceptable way to do things, regardless of what the end results are. They'll be back next year, and I just can't bring myself to feel good about it. Don't think I'm just bashing Tony here, he's been an amazing manager for as long as I've been alive. At some point, though, you have to look honestly at what's going on with the team, and ask if this is the best management group to lead the way forward.

And I just don't know if it is.

Free to a good home.

by the red baron on Sep 27, 2007 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ding ding ding

you hit the target there. give the man a stuffed panda. i wish them well, but i wish they would go away.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Sep 27, 2007 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

time for them to move on.

by DriverZn on Sep 27, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1 + 1

Is that the way to say I agree this organization needs new management with a new approach? Not to mention it will be the 13th year at the top for LaRussa. 13--I sense bad karma there.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, but

neither was Jason Marquis. He did fit the profile of a sinker-baller and Walt knew that we had to get a young, cheap starter from trading Drew.

Walt will have to add a young starter, if for no other reason than b/c payroll will dictate as much. There isn't much to be had on the free agent market and the Cards aren't exactly loaded w/ available cash to spend, so he'll have to find a young pitcher somehow.

by chuckb on Sep 27, 2007 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What to do with Duncan

I like Dunc a lot, and I think his injury had a lot to do with his poor finish, but he is our most marketable piece, and we really need a young(cheap) starter. A Schumaker/Ludwick platoon in LF would be much better defensively and might provide similar production if Ludwick's performance is no fluke.

Duncan really belongs in the AL, and I wonder if a Duncan for Ervin Santana (yes, he of the 5.80 ERA this year) is possible. We could also throw in a RH reliever.

Perhaps Boof Bonser is another option, as the Twins have Baker, Garza, and Slowey right behind him. If they are going to deal Santana, they'll probably want to keep Bonser.

by Hungry Jack on Sep 27, 2007 10:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not ankiel

I like the trade proposals with the Giants with exception of Ankiel. I am always fearful of trades that can really comback to haunt you and Ankiel could. I know he is striking out at an alarming rate, but he is a top notch centerfielder..can carry a club when he's hot and if he can reign in on strikeouts can really be an impact player. remember, he doesn't have but about 6 or 7 hundred atbats as a position player. I think the Cards should give him give him a complete year to see what he's got. Now if someone wants him enough to give up a topnotch, name brand starter in a package deal, that is a different matter, but not just pitchers with potential because nobody has any more potential than Ankiel. I could be wrong though, it seems the league has decided the way to pitch him is down and away and they have been getting him out. but he has a quick bat and if he can just learn to take that pitch to leftfield he is going to be good.

by ridgesee on Sep 27, 2007 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Top notch CF?

Have you been watching the same games as I have?

He's a league-average CF with a good arm. He doesn't always take good lines to the ball and he makes deep flies an adventure. He's got a cannon for an arm, but his future is not in CF.

by silent_bob on Sep 27, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're right,

I should have said, "he has the potential to be a good centerfielder," and I figure another year with Edmonds and he could be. Yes, I have been watching the games and I have seen him getting twisted and turned several times, but mostly in rightfield, which he hadn't played. By all accounts he played a solid centerfield in Memphis and I have seen nothing that indicates he can't in St. louis either with more experience and more accustom to the park.

by ridgesee on Sep 27, 2007 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ankiel has played RF

He played there a lot in Springfield, IIRC

by saladdays on Sep 27, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"circuitous"

He takes terrible routes and gets fooled often. But then again, we've been spoiled watching Edmonds for so long. Ricky might come around - he's got the athletic ability to do it - but his future with the Cards is in the corner. Rasmus is the future CF.

by hit and run on Sep 27, 2007 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Giants

I hear the Giants have a pretty sweet hitting leftfeilder that will be a FA in the offseason. What are the chances the Cardinals take a shot at that? 1%?

500- What it takes enough to win at Rummy, at Indy and in the NL Central.

by Zubin on Sep 27, 2007 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

100%

With Tony and Walt running the show there is a 100% chance they will at least kick the tires on Bonds, now how far will they go, probably not far at all.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no there's not

not a 100% chance. already too many left-handers in that outfield. the chance is bound to be much closer to 0% than 100%.

by willievinceterry on Sep 27, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

I really think they will at least kick the tires on Bonds. That is probably as far as it will go but they will try to see how much he is asking.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the fact that Bonds is left-handed

is utterly irrelevant. He hits everyone and so isn't susceptible to the lefthanders the way that Duncan, Edmonds, and, to a lesser degree, Ankiel are.

by chuckb on Sep 27, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the very thought

of that made me throw up in my mouth... shudder...

Just remember -- if the world didn't suck, we would all fall off

by RosevilleRedbird on Sep 27, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ohh come on...

Barry hitting behind Albert would be criminal. All you need with the amount of walks they generate is someone hiting fifth who hits for average with a little pop. Put Ankiel in the two slot and you can do some damage with that line-up. Barry can't be any worse than Dunc defensively. We have plenty of Outfield players to platoon to give Barry some days off. That would free us up to trade Duncan for a pitcher.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Sep 27, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but think of

this lineup:

Ryan/Eckstein (conservative projection)
Bonds/Ludwick (Bonds gets 75% of the at bats)
Pujols (pujols)
Duncan (conservative estimate)
Rolen (90% of 2006)
Ankiel (generous projection)
Molina (2007 version)
Pitcher (using 2007 split, .232 OBP/.245 SLG)
Kennedy (hitting like in 2006)

We'd probably score 900 runs.

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 27, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

or if you wanted to go crazy

Trade for renteria and platoon Ryan and Kennedy...

Renteria (avg of last 6 years)
Bonds/Ludwick (Bonds gets 75% of the at bats)
Pujols (pujols)
Duncan (conservative estimate)
Rolen (90% of 2006)
Ankiel (generous projection)
Molina (2007 version)
Pitcher (using 2007 split, .232 OBP/.245 SLG)
Ryan/Kennedy (.6*2006 kennedy vs RHP, .4*Ryan vs LHP)

942 runs

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 27, 2007 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I likey.

by spants on Sep 27, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

last one...

swap 2007 Chone Figgins for Renteria, and it goes to ~960 runs. Our Pythag win expectancy would be 91 wins even with our 2007 pitching staff (assuming they give up 20 runs over the next 4 games, making it 850 on the season ;)

I could see AW winning 25+ games with that lineup behind him.

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 27, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He could be the "RH power bat"...

that we need to improve against LHP. Even though he would add another lefty to our outfield lineup, he has an OPS of 1.058 vs. LHP over the last three years.

by Handsome B Wonderful on Sep 27, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of RH bats

will Pat "The Bat" Burrell be shopped for seemingly the 19th offseason in a row?

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 27, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's putting up a .900 OPS this year

after a slow start. He would be an interesting name to throw around, but Philly would have to eat a chunk of his $14M salary next season. Would you take him for say $8-9M if it only costs a couple mid-level prospects?

by Handsome B Wonderful on Sep 27, 2007 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd worry about trading Duncan

before we know how healthy Rolen really is. I would hope that any deal involving Duncan would wait until we get nearer to spring training.

It would help us assess our needs. By March, we should know if Rolen's mobility has returned in the shoulder enough that he can hold the bat with two hands. We should also have an idea if the second surgery to Mulder's shoulder held.

Another trading chip we have, as a minor leaguer is The Hauf. With the acquisition of Brian Barden and TLR's man-crush on Aaron Miles (I'll admit, he's been pretty dang good this year with the stick), Hauf has no spot on the roster this year and more than likely next.

His clock is ticking (26 years old) I believe, so maybe a team that has pitching but needs some OF help to go along with an infielder, something could be done.

The most intriguing move this half of the season was the Pirates getting a new GM. What will his MO be? Will he trade off his current servicable parts (Snell, Bay, Wilson, Nady) to get younger and more talented. As assistant GM of the Indians, what deals did he oversee?

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 27, 2007 10:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morris

I think their new GM might look for a way to deal Morris too, someway to free up even a portion of that contract, though keeping him for his clubhouse presence wouldn't be bad either. I am very intrigued about the turnover in NLC staff. Cinc, Pit and Hou all will be getting a new manager or GM from how they started this season and Mil could still fire Yost if they miss out. Also the Cubs will be sold so an ownership change over is coming too. If TLR leaves then the Cards have a change as well. Could be a very odd NLC next year.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rich Harden

Duncan would fit nicely in Oakland.

Come on You Redbirds--Mike Shannon

by BluesDrummer85 on Sep 27, 2007 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Harden.

I don't like the idea of Harden; I don't think he'll ever be able to stay healthy.

Free to a good home.

by the red baron on Sep 27, 2007 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Blanton

Would be a better target, but it's Oakland.

by Some witty name on Sep 27, 2007 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rich Harden has a terrible injury

history.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mulder

Larry, I'm glad you counted Mulder as a #5 starter at best. I truly believe he won't be back by the start of the season. I also am very doubtful that he'll ever be an effective big-league starter. I don't think he's ever going to find the mechanics that he had back in Oakland, even if he rotator cuff heals this time (which I'm doubtful of).

Now he'll get a shot here next year, but I don't really know what his time-frame will be. Mulder had surgery last year on 9/12. I found this blurb about his surgery this year (performed 9/24/07):

- "Mulder underwent left shoulder arthroscopic surgery that revealed complete healing of the previous labral repair and only partial healing of his previous rotator cuff repair."

So they "cleaned up" an area that was partially healed? IMO, there is no way they didn't suture tendon/muscle down again to re-repair the unhealed area. They say Mark will be ready for spring training...I just don't see it.

by silent_bob on Sep 27, 2007 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah, it's starting to look

like mulder will be one of those guys who never recovers from a rotator-cuff injury. it wasn't that long ago that a rotator-cuff injury was a career death sentence; the record is obviously much better in recent years, but you still can't take for granted that a guy will ever recover. the signs on mulder are all about as discouraging as they could possibly be. he'll be given a chance, because they invested so much money in him, but i doubt he lasts half a season.

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

pangs of remorse

Agreed about Mulder. I am encouraged by the reports on his velocity, but he has not proven at all that he can get ML hitters out. And we are the hook for another $8M for him. Ugh.

Btw, Pedro has 24K in 21IP (and 6 BB) since coming back from his surgery. His WHIP is high, but he appears to have at least some ability to fool hitters. Mulder does not.

by Hungry Jack on Sep 27, 2007 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bob

one of the reports i read said that they indeed used more sutures, and that some of the sutures from last years surgery didnt hold/didnt take, whatever you want to call it

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Sep 27, 2007 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I read that the

procedure was not only a clean-up but involved putting in a row or layer of sutures in order to address the part of the arm that had not properly healed. I wonder if they can do something to increase blood circulation to that area since it sounds like that was part of the poblem in the tissue not healing.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

While

I like the idea of trading away some of the Cards outfield talent (between Skip, Duncan, Ankiel, and Ludwick the Cards have more than enough league average outfielders) to aquire a young stater, even if it means including Reyes in the deal to get a better prospect in return.

That said, I am not sold on the Giants, though with Brian Seban at the helm, I think Seban is one of the GM's Walt can still fleece if he wanted too.

by JMedwick on Sep 27, 2007 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lowry

would be a horrible idea in my opinion. Only god knows how his ERA is below 4 this year, it should be a lot closer to 5, and we have plenty of those guys already. If we actually trade Duncan I would like it to be for a pitcher who might actually have a shot at being a good pitcher, not one who has struckout the same amount that he has walked.

Which is why I'm still riding shotgun on the bring Bonderman in to St. Louis type deal that includes Duncan.

But if that can't happen I would much rather send Duncan to the Indians for Aaron Laffey who is a groundball artist, then to the Giants for Lowry.

by bigboy1234 on Sep 27, 2007 10:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree

Lowry's peripherals are all pointing the wrong way. I'm all in favor of making risky moves and trading people like Chris Duncan, but not for a pitcher who walks as many guys as he strikes out, whose K/9 is going down, who suffers from a persistent sore elbow, who's already had a couple dead-arm periods at age 26, and who has bad flyball rates (you can be a flyball pitcher if you strike a lot of people out or walk nobody, but neither applies to Lowry). So I'd pass on him.

And in fact, I'm not big on Sanchez either. He hasn't proved he can start (he has a 7.16 ERA in four starts this year, and last year it was 7.36 in the majors and minors as a starter). Correia is a fringy player, and wouldn't be worth Duncan straight up (not that anyone proposed that), but he's more the kind of guy we should be looking for -- a young dude with a so-so track record (i.e., available) but with a high upside. I know Dunc and La Russa stay away from power arms, but I think given our aging defense (our outfield is esp lousy with the gloves) we need to start getting away from pitch-to-contact guys. But of course that's unlikely...

Brian Gunn

by briangunn on Sep 27, 2007 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree and disagree

agreed that i wouldn't trade duncan for lowry straight up. but i do think lowry has a chance to be a bargain for the next two years. he's reached a career juncture not unlike where mike hampton was in 2001-02 ---- similar age (late 20s), similar decline in peripherals, similar health issues (elbow). using hampton as a guide --- after two very shaky seasons, he bounced back to have a couple of very useful years for the braves in 2003-04. he still couldn't strike anyone out, but he survived by keeping the ball down. his FIPs were in the mid-4.00s, suggesting that his results were not entirely luck-based. he changed his approach and remained league-averagish for another 75 starts or so.

lowry might be in the midst of a similar transition. started to change his approach this year --- career high GB rate, career low FB rate. he gave up a lot of baserunners, but they were low-impact ones --- opponents slugged just .394 against him this season (and it's not a park illusion --- .403 slugging on the road), about the same as they did in 2005, his best year. so i see lowry as about a 50/50 to survive for a while longer as the type of inning-eating, slop-tossing mid-rotation guy that the cardinals have made great use of in the past.

when you factor in the low cost --- an avg of $3.5m for the next two years --- he seems like better risk to me than some of their other options. if he came packaged with a pitcher that had some upside, i'd be interested.

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

Hampton's peripherals declined at Coors Field. When he got back down to Earth, he started pitching better.

Lowry's peripherals have declined at cavernous AT&T Park.

Re-acquire Edgar Renteria

by Mr Redbird on Sep 27, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good points...

Maybe I'm overthinking things. After all, there are few cheap 26-year-old starting pitchers out there with a sub-4.00 ERA.

Brian Gunn

by briangunn on Sep 27, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

An aside concerning SF and Bonds

The first thing that popped in my head when I saw that the Giants, in tribute to Bonds, had painted his name & number on the field in left: "The man is so evil that his name is indelibly scorched on the field; nothing will ever grow there again."

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Sep 27, 2007 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bonds

Ooooh, that's harsh -- even for Bonds. An unlikeable, arrogant ass? Yes. A Cheater of Epic Proportions? Almost a certainty. A philanderer? Definitely. But "evil"? I don't think so.

However, if he has a birthmark "756" hidden somewhere on his scalp (tough to do considering he shaves his head these days), I might reconsider.

"Requiescat In Pace - 2007 Zombie Cardinals"

by AustinBOB on Sep 27, 2007 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan

Like someone said earlier! It is absolutely stupid to even consider trading Duncan until you know how Rolen is. Duncan is our 2nd best power threat. And his numbers would obviously be better if he were healthy this season.

I do not like the idea of trading Duncan until some things become more clear on our team.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

they're not going to trade ankiel

and probably not going to trade duncan as long as his dad is here.

by willievinceterry on Sep 27, 2007 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Outfield

Here are all the OF, so what will we do.

Ankiel
Duncan
Ludwick
Taguchi
Skip
Juan
Edmonds

7 outfielders at this point. Wow!! what do we do?
Lets assume Juan will be able to play next season.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i don't think we can assume that at all

but that still leaves one extra OF, and one too many LH hitters.

by willievinceterry on Sep 27, 2007 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Assumptions

My assumptions are: Taguchi will retire or turn to coaching, Juan won't be counted on for anything by the organization.

Thus we only have Dunc LF, Edmonds CF, Ankiel RF, Ludwick and Schumaker that is a full OF right there and only 1 is RH, Mather and others could help with that but one of those either has to go or will start in Memphis.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Skip

I think Skip is the odd man out. If one must start in Memphis he will be the one.

I have always admired how well So has played for the Cardinals. He is a great clutch player at that. He will give you good AB's especially when it counts.

Having a all RH or all LH group is not bad if they can handle RH or LH pitching the same.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reasonable Assumptions

They've been so quiet on enc that he must be dealing with the real prospect of forced retirement, not fare.

Guch has had a good run, but i have to believe he'll retire. fare enough.

So what happenned to those that were pulling for jrod to make the club? Add another aaaa player to the mix.

We also didn't expect to see ank until sept., but he came up in aug. and exceeded wildest dreams. I think he'll stick, but nowhere else than STL.

That said, I think we just might see one of those mashers from Springfield make the leap by mid-summer, and also beat the odds makers estimates.

So it's still one spot to draw from to bring in some talent. And I don't agree with linking it spring training for Rolen. I don't think we could have predicted this season from st, and next year should be even less of a predictor. We can't wait until spring to trade for real pitcher.

Play Roy Hobbs Everyday!

by Birds on the Bat on Sep 27, 2007 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Juan

I would not read too much into Juan's situation at this point. The recovery from the trauma to his vision is slow, and far too early to say anything definitive. The initial signs are encouraging.

Hopefully Juan recovers, because his RH bat is a nice complement to Ankiel and JEd. I think his recovery makes it a bit easier to trade Duncan, our most marketable piece, for what we really need--a starter.

by Hungry Jack on Sep 27, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Enc's Prospects

I was surprised to learn that enc has had to recover from broken bones in the face before. Like many players that have been beaned at the plate, I don't know how you come back, even when physically restored. Coming back twice may be too much to ask.

I certainly wish enc they very best. Nobody deserves what he is having to endure.

The team has to go into the off season without counting on his come back.

Play Roy Hobbs Everyday!

by Birds on the Bat on Sep 27, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

juan

i cant help but think of kirby puckett when i think about juans injury

complications with glaucoma were what ended his career, and apparently that is always possible with an injury like this

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Sep 27, 2007 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

J-Rod is the forgotten man these days

He's probably a FA though, so he may decide to go elsewhere.

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 27, 2007 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I were JRod I would run,

not walk, away from the Cardinals as soon as possible.

"We're sniffing the winning situation."

by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 27, 2007 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are right about that. I don't feel they

ever gave him a fair shot at anything here. He spent a lot of the season on the DL so he's had a lost year....too bad.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan/Ankiel

If STL were to trade these guys it better be for a pitcher who has an ERA 4 or below and has a history of giving you 190+ innings otherwise it is a very bad trade in my opinion.

Duncan has proven he can contribute. This season was good despite the injuries he had. Ankiel has proven he has upside, and I don't call him a stud but he is not tagged league average by me either. He has very little pro or MLB AB's and in those he has proven to have upside.

No some may say we have Rasmus coming but he has not proven anything at the MLB level.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

let's go rockies!

there was a lot of support on that other thread about adopting the rockies, and i wanted to try to drum up some more. they're young, exciting, fun to watch, and would be a breath of playoff fresh air, if they make it.

the cards'll always be first in my heart, but after the past few seasons, i think colorado may forever be second...

by dpmay on Sep 27, 2007 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rolen for Matt Kemp

mentioned as a possibility at MLB traderumors. I would pull the trigger.

I love Rolen, but I think it's time for a change. He hasn't often stayed healthy for an entire season and all those injuries take their toll. I don't know if the Dodgers would actually do this, but I would love this trade.

by Toddius396 on Sep 27, 2007 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

rumor

While I can't find anything to back this rumor up (even the foxsports.com article they source) this CBS station from LA is reporting Johan Santana for Matt Kemp and a pitching prospect.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

they would rather do that, lol.

by Toddius396 on Sep 27, 2007 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Santana!

Now the rumors are going to start flying like mad! Every team wants Santana so every team will propose a trade and if nothing happens this year after the 2008 season every team will walk to Santana with a check book and say how much $$$ do you want.

It is going to be interesting hearing all the crazy trades that supposidly are thrown at the Twins.

If I were a Twins fan I would be nervous. Think Santana will give them a hometown discount? I think he would if they prove they will spend the money to get an impact player.

I am curious about the Twins minor league players. About two years ago I was watching the AA all star game on ESPN. At that point they were saying the twins had like 14 pitchers in their minor league system who were hitting 97 MPH on the gun. I wonder what the deal is with these flame throwers.

Any of them good, and can we get out hands on one or two.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Forgot link

I forgot to post it http://cbs2.com/sports/local_story_269110730.html

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To say Kershaw is a pitching prospect

is to call Pujols a Major League hitter. Dude has a 12.28 K/9 in the minors. And did I mention he's left handed?

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Sep 27, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trading Ryan...

assumes the Cards are able to re-sign Eckstein... ya think there's somebody out there that would offer Eck "stoopid" money (as happened to Bi-Polar Betty and Soup), or is the "stoopid" money reserved for pitchers? (Yes, I'm looking at you, #75!)

The FA market for pitching (ahem) stinks... so it seems the Birds will have to deal for the needed arms. I dunno, though... I kinda like (if healthy) this possible 2008 lineup:

Eck/Ryan SS
Ank RF/CF
El Hombre 1B
JEd CF/Lud RF (platoon)
Rolen 3B
Dunc LF
Yadi C
Da Pitcher
Kennedy 2B

Were I Skippy Schu, I'd do my damnedest to learn how to switch-hit this off-season! (I know, that's not realistic; but if he could pull it off, he'd cement a spot on the roster...)

I agree that Young Dunc is the Cards' best trading "chip"; but methinks the Birdbrass is counting on him to provide "pop" in the lineup.

Sigh... everybody needs arms; gonna be tough to get 'em.

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Sep 27, 2007 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would rather talk trade but since you decided

to take some pretty good shots at TLR in the first third of your thread, I want to respond to those first. I basically agree with Bernie's account of last night's game. But I don't agree with a number of things you said that go to who TLR is as a manager.

You implied that because of bordeom or because he was losing, TLR orchestrated all of the tense dynamics that transpired over the last 3 games. What was clear to me and to broadcasters I listened to was that Yost was hanging by a very slender thread before the series even started.

In the first two games, Yost's temper boiled over repeatedly at the umps even though they had a huge lead. And then he exploded at TLR with cursing and gesturing when Hart was hit (I believe unintentionally by a worn out Jimenez--he had lost control long before the hit). There's no doubt that buzzing Albert's head ignited Tony's anger and, whether intentional or not, it was not someting he was going to allow without a response (a message sent not only to the Brewers but to other teams for future play).

Tony is well known for protecting his players, just as Joe Torre is. Tom McCarthy and Howie Rose (NY broadcasters) have talked about both as old school managers. Everyone knows, they said, that you don't mess with either Cardinals or Yankees players.

Now you might not like that macho kind of protection of players. But it certainly isn't motivated out of some kind of self-centered and childish boredom. As Bernie sometimes calls him, "Don Tony" sent a message to the Brewers and other teams not to throw at our players heads, especially at Albert. Again, you might not agree with his rules of "gamesmanship", as Bernie calls it, but they are not centered on himself. They are centered on the team.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Right on!!! you are 100% correct NYCARDFAN

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I recall a lot of talk a couple of years ago

that the Yankees were in fact NOT aggressive about "protecting" players who were thrown at. A lot of criticism of Torre's passivity when challenged. Was that off the mark? What's the truth about Torre?

"We're sniffing the winning situation."

by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 27, 2007 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure as to the truth about Torre

The McCarthy and Rose discussion about TLR and Torre took place earlier this year after Torre was ejected for retaliatory actions involving hit batters. They talked about TLR as a prime example of an old school manager and then they said Torre also fit that mold.

They talked as if this was common knowledge. I don't follow the Yankees so I'm not a good source about Torre's recent behavior. He seemed pretty docile with the Cards. But maybe New York changes you, or maybe he's responded to those crticisms. Anyway, it was an interesting discussion about how different managers approach baseball and "gamesmanship" today.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you have a more romantic view of tony

than i do.

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I criticize Tony plenty

I just think you were wrong in your description of his motives last night as being self-centered and driven by boredom.

Yes, I think TLR often operates from core principles concerning what he thinks is the "right" and "wrong" way to play baseball. I wouldn't call it "romantic" to believe that someone can have principles and a defined sense of gamesmanship that ground their actions. Describing that as "romantic" is perjorative, as I'm sure you know, since it sounds like such conduct is some out of date relic from the past, not a real possibility in baseball today.

People can criticize Tony all they want as to whether his professed principles are right or wrong or whether he employs them consistently with various players. I have done that plenty. And Tony's particular judgements as to when to pull pitchers or what people to play provide lots of fodder for criticism.

But I do object to cynical descriptions of him as a person who is basically self-centered, childish, and interested in his own entertainment over the good of the team. I think he's a flawed person who tries to act in the best interests of his team. It's open to debate how well he succeeds in pulling that off.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think tony is a fierce competitor

and his competitive fire needs an outlet. for most of the last decade, that outlet has been to fight for the championship. since he doesn't have that outlet this year, it seems natural to me that his natural impulse would require another outlet --- even if, whether consciously or (in my opinion) unconsciously, he had to contrive one.

i never said this makes tony a bad person; i never called him "childish" or interested in his own "entertainment." those are your words. when i say he might have been bored, i mean that it's in la russa's nature to constantly seek meaningful competition. if such competition doesn't exist in the standings, he might have to find other ways to scratch that itch.

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we have a different view of Tony

I agree he is a competitor. But I think he sets up his own competitions (apart from the standings) and a lot of this has to do with whether his team is fighting with proper "heart" regardless of the circumstances.

This was clear in his delight with the "almost" wins against the Phillies. And after the Astros final game, he acted like a proud father rather than someone disappointed about being out of contention: "There's a lot of times we're not good enough, but I'll tell you, we've got great heart on this team. You can't deny that. And to finally get the win we deserved after as many times as we kept pushing, in the last game at home, that's 'Fantasy Island' stuff. I can't be happier for the guys on our club and our fans."

This doesn't sound like a guy who is obsessed with standings. Of course he wants to win and gives it his all. But there is more to baseball for him, I believe. That's why I don't think he has to manufacture conflicts with Yost in order to set up competitive goals for his team or to scratch his own competitive itch, as you say. And I don't think he considers any game meaninglesss.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we're not really disagreeing here

your first sentence above --- "he sets up his own competitions (apart from the standings) and a lot of this has to do with whether his team is fighting with proper 'heart' regardless of the circumstances" ---- might lead to the events we saw on wednesday night. the cards had been beaten badly on monday and tuesday, and the brewers were gloating just a little bit. tony might have thought, "i can't control the outcome of the game; we're undermanned, we're on the road, and we're playing a team that's fighting for its playoff life. but even if they beat us on the field, they're not going to take away our dignity . . . . " and therefore, plunk! they nail fielder in the back.

the point being, tony has nothing else to compete for except dignity at this point. if the cards were fighting for the division, he wouldn't have worried about the close pitches to pujols --- not now, anyway. he would have settled that score some other time, and would have kept his focus (and more important, the team's focus) on winning the game. it was yost's failure to do so that exposed him as a novice --- he got caught up in something trivial and lost sight of the real prize.

by lboros on Sep 27, 2007 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

glad we're not disagreeing

but then I'm not sure why you went down the verbal path of calling "principled" actions such as protecting one's players or preserving dignity through gamesmanship "romantic" notions? You seem to think TLR is capable of this from your last remarks. But let me say I'm happy to leave it at some rough agreement...

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sets up his own competitions?

You realize ANY competitor does that, right? Does Pujols have any reason to fight for RBIs or runs or even PLAY? But he does.

When my lousy beer league volleyball team was getting smacked around last night and I wasn't getting any sets, I still made up a reason to hit the ball hard or put the serve in the corner.

That's competition.

by sdrone on Sep 27, 2007 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, everyone who is a competitor

sets up competitions. But some are better at it than others once they've been knocked out of competition, especially if they are used to winning. Some have more talent in handling "losing" than others.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps

you and Bernie are just giving Tony too much power. Do I think that there were mind games being played? Yes. Do I think that TLR is the grand puppet-master "Don Tony," pulling the strings of all the people around him and orchestrating all that happened? No. Yost was having plenty of problems before the Brewers and the Cards played.

As an aside, I hate the nickname "Don Tony." It's kind of slur, like Tony is some sort of mafia godfather; oh, his last name just happens to be Italian, too. I don't know; it just rubs me the wrong way. Tony is Tony; he's getting older and a little more cantankerous in his old age.

by spants on Sep 27, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bernie

Bernie nicknamed him that since TLR rubs him like a mafia godfather sometimes it is a personal nickname Bernie uses but it does accurately describe last night. Also a clue that the HBP to Fielder might have been intentional is how Thompson reacted, he didn't kick puppies he kicked the brewers butt after it, he stayed calm and didn't get too upset at himself for it. Normally I would expect him to explode but if Tony used him since he is known to hit batters before so it could appear as just another HBP then Thompson probably would have stayed cool since he did exactly what he was told to do.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought the same thing about Brad

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Guess the punctuation store has run out of commas and semicolons.

In a related story, the jerk store called and it's all out of me.

by silent_bob on Sep 27, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you should be proud

after all, you are their best selling item.

did you hear the sea is almost out of shrimp?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Sep 27, 2007 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't be scared

of the semi-colon. People don't use it enough. That's a good thing though, as most wouldn't know how to use it.;;;;;;

by spants on Sep 27, 2007 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you're giving Thompson enough credit

IMHO, he hit Fielder on his own, not on Tony's orders. I doubt very much he even listens to Tony anymore, having been in his doghouse in and out all year.

I'm sure Tony was pleased with the results.

by DiscoJer on Sep 27, 2007 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thompson

does seem to take initiative in this area.

by spants on Sep 27, 2007 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Thompson would probably act on his own

to protect his teammates. I happen to like the fact that he seems like a tough-minded guy who doesn't take a lot of BS. I just think he probably was acting in concert with Tony here. Not trying to take away from Thompson's performance last night.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you about the nickname

it was handy to use because Bernie had used it. But when Bernie first wrote his "Don Tony" article earlier this year, I thought yuk. It does elicit images of an Italian mafia miniseries.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adopt another team

Overreaction, I know, but as an adoptive mother, I really don't like this use of the word "adopt," which implies we'll pick up a team for the playoffs and then drop them in favor of our "real" team later.

And maybe since I originally adopted the Cards for life, I don't want to take up another team now, even for the playoffs!

Enjoy.

by hawaiifan on Sep 27, 2007 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How about

"Foster" another team? I would think that would allow us to support that team until they went home.
:-)

"...but If I can do some damage and help my team win, I'm going to stay in there" -Albert

by BigMOman on Sep 27, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't adopt. Just encourage someone who

doesn't suck like the Cubs.

by sdrone on Sep 27, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Babysit

by Don Zero on Sep 27, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about sponser

like a foreign student. Foster parents and babysitters also work. As long as we can root for someone and make the playoffs fun.

Oh, we're done for the year so don't hang onto the Cards losses. It can be fun rooting for someone else, especially if they have great talent and if they've never won before--like the Rockies. Go Rox.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sponser = sponsor

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching

I just don't know how the Cardinals are going to fix the pitching problem.

I am very nervous the Cards are in for a tough couple years only because of pitching issues and unless you win a bidding war there is no "guaranteed" fix.

Anyone else neverous abou the pitching?

How is it going to get better?

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think that we've devoted

at least 10 diaries and around 10,000 posts (50 or so in this thread) on how to fix the pitching for next year.

I just hope we don't trade Duncan for too little.

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 27, 2007 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

You pony up on one free agent (Livian) and you trade some guys that you might want to trade, but still wont kill you (Duncan, Ankiel, Reyes, Perez, Anderson) for a SP (Burnett, Lowry, Willis, etc) and, viola, you have two new real starting pitchers (not more Looper/Pinero types).

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 27, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, if you just

turn around 2 more slots in the rotation ("turn around" as in have above-average starters in them), a whole lot of problems will be solved. I'm not too worried about their ability to do that. I am worried that will be the LIMIT of what they'll do. Now is the time to be bold. You've got to bring in one or two true high-impact guys at this point, preferably one P, one infielder.

"We're sniffing the winning situation."

by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 27, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be so down on Joel Pineiro

he's been able to throw up a 3:1 K:BB ratio since coming over to St. Louis. He does have a bunch of trouble with the longball. He's not going to by a front of the rotation starter, but as a reliable #4 starter who stays away from getting injured, I wouldn't put him in the Braden Looper (converted over reliever just for fun) catagory.

I say this and he'll go out and get shelled tonight by the Mets but in all seriousness, I think Pineiro as our #4 solves a need.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 27, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Pineiro

and Thompson as swing guys -- #5's and/or spot starters -- are fine for '08, but to bank on either of them being even a fourth starter worries me. Joel, for as much of the "success" he's had in the last two months, frankly scares me. He records way too many "loud" outs.

But yeah, if he's a spot starter next year, that's fine, I'd be more than happy with it, really; but 30 some odd starts out of him scares the crap out of me.

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 27, 2007 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course

my ideal candidate for next years #4 spot is Cliff Lee, who is pretty much a walking disaster, so what the hell do I know?

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 27, 2007 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joel

The thing I like about Pineiro is that he is a former 16 game winner as a full time starter, his numbers for us thus far resemble his numbers from 04 the year after that 16 win season when he went 6-11 with a 4.67ERA (92 ERA+) and a 1.329WHIP. For us he is 5-4 with 4.53ERA (96 ERA+) 1.383WHIP. Even more interesting is that for every year he has pitched except 2004 and this year he has had a 20+% LD% yet in 2004 and 2007 he has a ~17.5% LD% and he yeilds more FBs as a result since the GB numbers don't go up that much (in 2004 they went down from his other seasons). I think Joel just needs to work with Duncan longer and that if he chooses to stay then the Club will be happy having him back.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you

about Joel and Thompson. I would probably throw Welleymeyer in there too. Thompson is definitely inexpensive and Welleymeyer may be fairly inexpensive. Both have the potential to become solid back of the rotation starters. If they do not compete well in spring training, they can go to the pen and be available to fill in for injured starters.

One worry I have is how poorly high paid FA pitchers performed this year. It's a real crapshoot and it involves a lot of resources. I'm not wild about giving up young talent in a gamble for pitchers who are in range of 4.00 to 5.00 average. We already have pitchers like that. And we already know they can work with Duncan.

Also, Hardcore Legend brought up a while back that '09 should be a better year for starting pitchers (I hope I have that right HL). If that's true, maybe a two year strategy in terms of building up our rotation would prove more successful in the longterm.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You do

know that Looper/Pineiro are just as good as Lowry, Willis, and Livan, except the latter have bigger names and will cost you a lot more.

Ponying up on Livan would be pretty useless to me, he gives you the same as Looper does. The only difference is Livan is a known innings eater.

We should pony up on Curt Schilling on a 2 year 25M deal.
Then trade Duncan+Anderson for Bonderman.
Reyes and maybe if it took Franklin for Andy Sonnanstine.

New rotation would be Schilling, Bonderman, Wainwright, Sonnanstine, and Looper.

Eh, just my opinion and a dream that won't come true.

by bigboy1234 on Sep 27, 2007 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what stats you're using

but Last three years, by ERA+:

Livian:100, 94, 95
Willis: 153, 112, 82
Lowry: 110, 93, 113
Burnett: 117, 118, 134

Looper (this year, as starter): 89
Pineiro: 94, 68, 77

Granted, Willis' arm is about to fall off (though I feel the same way about Looper), but those are seemingly better than Looper/Joel.

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 27, 2007 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

$12.5m for Schilling?

Will he ever get more than 150 innings again? I just wonder if he's starting to break down. Maybe. I dunno.

by sdrone on Sep 27, 2007 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Schilling does not want to come to

the NL. He also has been hurt a lot and hasn't had that great of a season. I don't know that he answers anything. And he'll have a big contract too.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not much help in site

I think 2008 could be as rough as 2007 in terms of the rotation. There is no starter help at AAA and the FA market is thoroughly unappetizing.

Our best bet would probably be trade to Duncan and Reyes for one of the better names mentioned here, see what Pineiro and Wellemeyer might develop into, and pin our rotation hopes on 2009 with Carp, Wainwright, the aforementioned players, and another FA.

I think the worst thing would be to commit to a long-term deal with a mediocre FA starter in 2008 and preclude a bigger move in 2009. I hate to say it, but I just don't see things getting much better in 2008.

by Hungry Jack on Sep 27, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm using

xFIP from 2007

Livan: 5.62
Willis: 4.67
Lowry: 5.48
Looper: 4.94
Pineiro (only with the cards): 4.53

Not saying xFIP is the end all be all, but I'll take it over ERA+ on who I'm picking for my team next season. Not to mention the Marlins would want a lot for Willis, and Lowry's ERA is amazingly lucky to me and his trade value is higher than what it should be. And the difference in Livan and Schilling is huge to me, while they will probably cost about the same per year, while Curt will get less years on his deal. Oh, and I never said Burnett wasn't better, because he is, I just think a 3.5 ERA guy in the AL is going to cost a lot to get, not to mention his very low BABIP this year, although he would easily be our ace.

by bigboy1234 on Sep 27, 2007 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oops

this was suppose to be a reply to Alxfritz post, tricky reply button!

by bigboy1234 on Sep 27, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anthony Reyes trade

what, exactly, should/could Anthony Reyes bring us? The Reds traded Kyle Lohse to Philadelphia in return for one of the top 23 year old pitchers in AA.

Lohse has never really been very good. I read a story a few months back that this is mostly contributed to his curveball getting hammered everytime he throws it.

Reyes is younger, though his shoulder tightness is scary. I wonder if a pitching starved team would be willing to give something of talent up at the AA level. Perhaps something can be worked out with the Braves involving Reyes for Renteria.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 27, 2007 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think this is one of the first questions

the team may have to start with. From all indications (rumblings from reporters) Reyes will likely be traded, and some teams seem to have interest in him (Braves, Phillies, Padres). Since I think Reyes has limited trade value, we may have to look at those teams who might want him and build a trade bundle from there. I doubt we can just choose who we want from another team and then offer them Reyes. I may be wrong, but I wouldn't think he's that popular.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

He is very hard to read?

I cant tell if he is good or not. Just a hard cat to read at this point.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

he's a real enigma. Makes decision making difficult.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haren

I always thought Haren had better stuff than Reyes. Reyes is not as bad as he has been but he could be one of those SP who has an era always between 4.3 and 5.4, and can be god at times but has the ability to be just as bad.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Braves really are interested and they

do think the Cards have not tried to work with his strengths. The whole baseball world knows the Cards (or at least current management) want him out of here. They will get pennies on the dollar, and if he does turn it around, a lot of grief. If the Braves are dealing Renteria, they can go to a lot of organizations and come up with a starter that is more accomplished. We'll probably be able to get their failed starter Lance Cormier or someone like that for Reyes straight up. They should have, for sake of trade value, not let out the word about how unhappy they were with him.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching Silver Slugger

I think Owings is solidifying his silver slugger, the guy already had 4HR and 12 RBI heading into today. He is now 4-4 with 3 2B and 3 RBI today. The man is some hitter.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Owings

...if his pitching career doesn't plan out (unlikely), he could be the next Ankiel!

It would be interesting to find out how many pitchers have career batting averages higher than theeir BAA?

by redrey on Sep 27, 2007 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pulling for one of the more innovative

organizations, like the A's, to sign some great hitting pitcher like Owings, or even Zambrano and use them as a designated hitter on days they didn't pitch. It seems they both could do it.....I'd love to see it. I'm not saying Zambrano hits as well as Owings, but he can rake, and he's a switch hitter.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why wouldn't they just DH

their defensive specialist SS then?

by Valatan on Sep 27, 2007 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That could work too; I was just thinking

along the line that you might not want your pitcher to have to worry about hitting on days they were pitching, but using them on days in between so they only had to focus on thier hitting. Especially Zambrano. He gets real worked up when he makes an out.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

any one think its possible

for a trade involving the marlins for the D Train & Hanley Ramairez? we need a SP who can eat innings, and we need an SS for at least 3-4 years. why not? if you are going to trade DUNK, at least get fair market value. imho noah or any other of the giants young pitchers for DUNK is not fair. it'd be almost as bad as the Mulder trade.

update, Hanley almost tied up the game in south beach. dude can rake.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Sep 27, 2007 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i should note

not saying DUNK straight up for D Train & Hanley. DUNK + Anthony or LUD/SKIPPY/ etc is what I would do.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Sep 27, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would

I would do it but I doubt the Marlins would! Many think Ramirez will be a 3B eventually since he seems to be growing more.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't see the Fish trading Hanley

for anything less than a young stud pitcher - something along the lines of a Cole Hamels. Even then, I don't know if they'd do it. Ramirez could be a top 5 position player for several years.
D Train, however, could be had. I think a package centered around Reyes with another 1 or 2 players could get it done.

by Handsome B Wonderful on Sep 27, 2007 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hanley Ramirez

leads the NL in VORP. He's 2nd in baseball behind a pretty good 3B/SS. The fish aren't trading him AND Dontrelle for Duncan and Reyes. They might trade Dontrelle for Duncan and Reyes.

by chuckb on Sep 27, 2007 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

see i think thats too much for D Train

right now he's damaged goods. of course so is Anthony. any one think a straight up trade, Anthony for D Train, could happen? my personal opinion, and it's probably wrong is any where Anthony goes he'll be very very good. i view him like Danny Haren. not good under Tony & Dave, but almost any where else he'll be great. of course if his shoulder is hurt all that goes out the window.

i'm half watching the flub vs fish game and i think jacobs who plays first & some outfield already is the fish's version of DUNK. so they dont really need DUNK. other than Anthony do the Cards have any players that the fish need? maybe i'm crazy but i think Hanley can be had. heck we got Edgar from them didnt we? now i dont think we should sell the farm to get him, but because of the fish's history of trading young players, i think he can be hand.

like i said, i'm probably nuts. but this is a very booring afternoon. and i got nothing else to do but come up with crazy ideas about trades.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Sep 27, 2007 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They'd want legitimate prospects

if they were to trade away Cabrera/Ramirez, you can look back to their past trades, and see that they'd be looking for multiple players that have a chance of contributing at the MLB level in a couple of years. They won't want Ludwick-type spare parts. They'd want players like Rasmus, Anderson, etc.

Now, considering that we have Yadi, and that management seems very, very happy with Yadi, it might be worth thinking about floating a package with Anderson as the centerpiece if we were to get a Hanley Ramirez back in trade. That would be a long-term solution to the SS hole, and not a one year rental.

But we'd have to give up more than just Duncan and MLB-level spare parts to even think of getting Ramirez (or cabrera for that matter) from them.

by Valatan on Sep 27, 2007 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you read my mind

for the life of me i could not remember Anderson's name. considering a lot view him as a ligit MLB catcher who can hit i was going to say him + DUNK & Anthony & some others for Hanley & the D Train.

speaking of Hanley, he just hit a homer to one of the deepest part of the park. deep center. nice. 4-1 fish. honestly, if you have to win one game, and you trot steve trachsel out to the mound, you really dont want to win the game do you?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Sep 27, 2007 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For Dontrelle and Ramirez?

I would think the asking price would have to be something at least as much as Reyes, Rasmus and Garcia. Maybe that's worth considering, if the team can then go out and sign a productive outfielder to replace Duncan's bat. But I would imagine that Hanley Ramirez isn't going anywhere unless they are bowled away with an offer.

by Valatan on Sep 27, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Miggy would be easier to trade for than

Hanley. Maybe the fact they have Hanley would make them more comfortable giving up Miggy. I know the guy needs to lose a little weight but maybe he could work out with Albert and drop a few pounds. Any guess as to how we could get Miggy and Willis in trade?

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Sep 27, 2007 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

divine intervention

by Handsome B Wonderful on Sep 27, 2007 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe not...

They want a MLB ready pitcher a catcher prospect so it is said for Willis.

Reyes & Anderson for Willis.

What do they want for Miggy?
Maybe...

Garcia, Craig, & X Player

Then we flip Rolen to Somewhere else with another prospect for a Pitcher.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Sep 27, 2007 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scratch that last idea....

How about Duncan, Reyes, Anderson for Miggy & Willis. We may need to kick in a few more prospects but that would be the meat of the deal.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Sep 27, 2007 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heck, I'd think they'd want Pujols for

Rameriz.....he's the kind of player you keep to build your club around. I doubt he's on the table for any team for any price. If he is, the Marlins are just stupid.

by jillsinmo on Sep 27, 2007 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your probably right..

Look at what Tex brought from Atlanta.

The Red Blazer

by Red Blazer on Sep 27, 2007 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I could understand them dealing Miggy, as he's getting to the stage of his career where he's expensive. But dealing Ramirez doesn't make a bunch of sense for them right now.

by Valatan on Sep 27, 2007 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hanley!

Bomb to CF I guess a no doubt HR accroding to Cubs broadcasters.

No way STL has anything to give FL for him besides giving out 3 best prospects.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Trashall doing his part

to keep Yost & company close. The moaning of the WGN announcers is hilarious.

Play Roy Hobbs Everyday!

by Birds on the Bat on Sep 27, 2007 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

santo

Yeah Santo is just muttering things. He is not a happy man.

He does not sound too pleased with Alfonso.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought I didn't care if the Cubs win

last night, but I have to admit this game is making me happy.

That is, assuming Ron Santo doesn't die because of this. Take it easy Ron, it ain't as bad as '69.

by enoscountry on Sep 27, 2007 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

5-1 Cubs now

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

5-1 Marlins over the Cubs my bad

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 5:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ramirez/Cabrera

As much as I would love to have both guys, I think getting a stud pitcher would make me more excited.

I guess if we have those two we only lose 13-9 alot of times rather than 13-5.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 27, 2007 5:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They

are flipping their lids at Bleed Cubbie Blue.

by spants on Sep 27, 2007 5:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

great outing

today by scott eyre...

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 27, 2007 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From MLB website

Ned Yost and Seth McClung suspended.

by spants on Sep 27, 2007 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

although the Brewers might actually do better with Yost being suspended. That would be interesting.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tonight's lineup

Eck 6
Ankiel 8
Pujols 3
Ludwick 7
Schumaker 9
Cairo 5
Stinnett 2
Pineiro 1
Miles 4

Reyes 6
Castillo 4
Wright 5
Beltran 8
Alou 7
Delgado 3
Lo Duca 2
Green 9
Martinez 1

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

By the way, it's raining

in my part of NY. It would be ironic if we get caught up in another rain delay or controversial rain cancellation. I can see the Mets trying to pull that again to get a day off, hoping the game won't matter to their being in contention.

I really would like the Card's to have a hand in knocking the Mets out of contention, especially after that faux rain cancellation that is now costing us our day off.

by nycardfan on Sep 27, 2007 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs