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Most complicated playoff scenario ever?

Looking at the standings in the ESPN "Hunt For October" page, and not being concerned with the Cardinals' playoff matchups, I started examining just how complex Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps even more of next week could get. Here's what I came up with:

Star-divide

Mets: Lose their last 4, to the Cardinals today and Florida over the weekend

Phillies: Lose to Atlanta today, then lose 2 of 3 to the Nationals

Atlanta: Win their last 4, over Philly today and Houston over the weekend

Cubs: Win 2 of their remaining 4

Milwaukee: Win their remaining 4 over SD

Colorado: Win 1 of their remaining 4

San Diego: Lose their remaining 4 to Milwaukee

Arizona: Make sure that Colorado wins no more than 1 of their remaining 4; that is, if Colorado beats the Dodgers tonight, then Arizona needs to sweep Colorado to make this scenario play out, otherwise, if Colorado loses tonight, then Colorado needs to take 1 of 3 from Arizona

Resulting standings would be:

NL East
Team W L .PCT GB
New York 87 75 .537 --
Philadelphia 87 75 .537 --
Atlanta 87 75 .537 --
NL Central
Team W L .PCT GB
Chicago 85 77 .525 --
Milwaukee 85 77 .525 --
NL West
Team W L .PCT GB
Arizona* 92 70 .568 --
San Diego 87 75 .537 5
Colorado 87 75 .537 5

*-Arizona could end up anywhere from 90-72 to 92-70 with this scenario still playing out

At the end of the day Sunday, we would have:

Arizona as NL West champs

Chicago and Milwaukee in a one-game playoff on Monday to determine NL Central champs

That's the easy part. After that it gets crazy. There's a 3-way tie for first in the NL East that would have to be resolved. Then the two teams who don't win the NL East would be involved with the two other 87-75 teams in the NL West to determine who the wild card is.

Fortunately for the folks in Bud Selig's office and the National League office, it's not likely to go this way.

Are the Mets bad enough to end the season on a 7-game losing streak at home?

Are the Phillies going to lose 2 of 3 to Washington at home this weekend?

Is Milwaukee going to overcome their manager's myopia and sweep San Diego?

Is Colorado going to suddenly go cold and drop 3 out of 4?

I can see the answer to any one of these questions being yes, or maybe two of them, but not all of them. And all of them are needed in order to reach this 5-way tie at 85-77, along with Atlanta winning their last 4.

So, while it was fun to look at the math, I still think the most likely scenario is NY and Arizona as division winners, with the Phillies as the wild card, and a one-game playoff between Chicago and Milwaukee for the NL Central.

However, if the weird stuff described above happens, the MLB and NL offices will be scrambling -- the playoff coin tosses that have already been held don't have any contingencies for a 4-way wild card tie, and none of the coin tosses held so far involve Atlanta.

TSF

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Minor Correction
We play the other Pennsylvania team not Philly this weekend.

by StLHugo on Sep 27, 2007 12:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm just hoping...
for one one-game playoff (hopefully cubs/brewers), but this would be great...though, not likely.

by joeyart on Sep 27, 2007 2:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

if i'm correct
i believe the tie-breaker games count as regular season games. with that being said, i think the central and east division champs would be decided first. since these games would count, two teams would have to lose in the nl east, leaving one champion and the other two a half game out of the wild card, thus only needing SD and the rox to play a game to decide the wild card.

this won't happen, but wouldn't be a blast. and then wouldn't it be a blast for the WS to be in Denver in November (ha, that rhymes). it'd be like 25 degrees.

by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 27, 2007 3:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not Quite
Tie-breakers count as regular season games for statistics, but not for the standings.  Say the Mets, Phillies, and Padres tie for the East and Wild Card.  It would not be fair that the loser of Mets-Phillies (playing for the NL East) is eliminated from the Wild Card because they had to play a 163rd game.
Rooting on the Cardinals one off-season transaction at a time!

by ColinMacLeod on Sep 28, 2007 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

article
this is a good article on potential crazy tiebreakers.

by stlcardinalsfang on Sep 27, 2007 3:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

looks like they didn't
consider the Atlanta angle, choosing to instead analyze a 3-way tie in the West, which is probably more likely than the craziness I imagined above. TSF

by TedSimmonsFan on Sep 27, 2007 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's My last Four days
September 27, 2007:

Arizona over Pittsburgh (ARI 89-70) (already played)
Cleveland over Seattle (CLE 95-64)
Atlanta over Philadelphia (PHI 86-73)
Boston over Minnesota (BOS 95-64)
Tampa over Yankees (NYY 91-68)
Mets over St. Louis (NYM 88-71)
Milwaukee over San Diego (MIL 82-77, SD 87-72)
Colorado over L.A. (COL 87-72)
Florida over Chicago (CHI 83-76)
(Angels idle @ 92-67)

September 28, 2007:
Boston over Minnesota (BOS 96-64)
Yankees over Baltimore (NYY 92-68)
Philadelphia over Washington (PHI 87-73)
Chicago over Cincinnati (CHI 84-76)
Mets over Florida (NYM 89-71)
Colorado over Arizona (COL 88-72, ARI 89-71)
San Diego over Milwaukee (SD 88-72, MIL 82-78)
Cleveland over Kansas City (CLE 96-64)
Oakland over Anaheim (LAA 92-68)

September 29, 2007:
Florida over Mets (NYM 89-72)
Cincinnati over Chicago (CHI 84-77)
Milwaukee over San Diego (MIL 83-78, SD 88-73)
Washington over Philadelphia (PHI 87-74)
Anaheim over Oakland (LAA 93-68)
Minnesota over Boston (BOS 96-65)
Yankees over Baltimore (NYY 93-68)
Kansas City over Cleveland (CLE 96-65)
Arizona over Colorado (ARI 90-71, COL 88-73)

September 30, 2007:
Mets over Florida (NYM 90-72)
Cincinnati over Chicago (CHI 84-78)
Baltimore over Yankees (NYY 93-69)
Philadelphia over Washington (PHI 88-74)
Boston over Minnesota (BOS 97-65)
Milwaukee over San Diego (MIL 84-78, SD 88-74)
Cleveland over Kansas City (CLE 97-65)
Colorado over Arizona (COL 89-73, ARI 90-72)
Anaheim over Oakland (LAA 94-68)

AL East: Boston 97-65 (home field), Yankees 93-69 (wildcard)
AL Central: Cleveland (2nd Seed) 97-65
AL West: Anaheim 94-68

Anaheim @ Boston
Yankees @ Cleveland

NL East: Mets 90-72 (home field, tie-break vs. Arizona)
NL Central: Chicago 84-78, Milwaukee 84-78, Cubs win 1-game playoff, 3rd seed.
NL West: Arizona 90-72, Colorado 89-73 (wildcard)

Colorado @ Mets
Cubs @ Arizona

...I won't dare predict the playoffs!  Yet.

by glennrwordman on Sep 27, 2007 6:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If we had 6 1 game playoff games
I wouldn't leave my house for 2 days.
Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 27, 2007 6:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Now this would be Crazy
23 homers 71 rbis, yeah, albert's having an off year

by PujolsFan4Life5 on Sep 27, 2007 9:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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