Realistic Looks

by stlfan on Sep 23, 2007 4:02 PM EDT

I think that there are 7 or 8 players out there that the Cardinals should give a realistic look at over the next year. I do not like all 8 of these players, nor do I think that the Cards will necessarily sign any of these players. I just think that these are guys who will be available at some point over the next year as free agents or via trade.

1. Livan Hernandez

Livan is a free agent this year and I think that this team just needs a #2-3 guy in the rotation that can eat up innings. Adam Wainwright may very well be a #1-2 starter for many years to come; I think next year it would be nice to see Livan pitch 220 innings of ~4.00 ERA ball to make sure our bullpen doesn't have to throw 600+ innings or something next year.

2. AJ Burnett

See my post a week or so ago for why this would be intriguing. Also, notice in the post that I do not necessarily WANT this one. This would have to be via trade.

3. Adam Dunn

If the Reds do not pick up his option, I want to see him in the lineup batting either directly in front of or directly behind Albert. That could give us 3 guys in the lineup (with Duncan) that are possible 100-run/100-rbi guys.

4. Torii Hunter

Torii is a free agent this off-season. He is a guy who could get 80-90 runs, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, 15-30 SB (if our manager next year will allow) and play + defense. I like any guy like that.

5. Aaron Rowand

He is a guy who is coming into his own right now. He plays + defense, could be a 100-run/100-rbi guy on a regular basis (although it might be more realistically a 85-run/85-rbi guy regularly).

6. Barry Bonds

He is a free agent. He is a guy that I might stop watching Cardinals' baseball if they get, plus he would add to an outfield that is injured a lot anyway; however, his OBP hasn't dropped below .400 in 8 seasons and his SLG has been above .500 since 1989 - before I turned 10 years old.

7. Alex Rodriguez

He is a free agent - if he opts out of his option. He is a guy who we will not get, unless he takes a HUGE pay cut because he likes it here or something. I don't really need to say much about him except a possible lineup with him and Albert excites me beyond belief.

8. Edgar Renteria

Edgar would have to come back via a trade. Escobar has been playing a lot more near the end of the year and Renteria hasn't quite been the same since he left here. The Cardinals need a shortstop and Edgar might be the best, truly available option. I am afraid of trading with ATL a little, though.

stlfan

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some good points

imho:

1, 2) I like Livan- also like Carlos Silva. Livan will be expensive (min $8M/year, but I bet he wants 5/50) while I'd think Silva could be had for 3Y/$18--3Y/$21. Silva is also much younger. Burnett would be a great pickup but the odds of it are next to zero and it would cost us a lot.

3,4,5,6) The last thing we need is an expensive outfielder- Ludwick and Ankiel will both outperform Hunter and Rowand in'08 imho. Dunn's option is going to be picked up, and if it isn't he's going to end up a DH in the AL. Same with Bonds.

7,8) SS and 2B are the positions that are really open to be improved significantly. A Renteria trade would be interesting to consider.

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 23, 2007 4:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Carlos Silva

I had my fingers crossed all last winter that the Twins wouldn't pick up his option.

Anyone who can pitch almost 190 innings while walking only nine (NINE!) batters like he did two years ago is welcome on my team.

He's got some knee problems and doesn't get too many strikeouts, but I'd be content with Silva as our #4 or 5.

by liam on Sep 23, 2007 4:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ankiel and Ludwick> Hunter and Rowand?

I love Ank and Lud. I want them both playing at least semi-regularly next year. But I really don't see what would make you think they will both outperfom Hunter and Rowand. I really hope they do, but neither one of them has ever been a regular before and both Rowand and Hunter are proven run producers. Anyway, that is just my 2 cents.

"Show me a guy who takes his time on the mound and I'll show you a damned loser." - Leo Durocher

by mattyfrommo on Sep 23, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

next year will be

Torii's age 32 season. He has a career OPS+ of 104. and has slugged over .500 exactly twice in his 10 years in MLB. He's having a good season this year, ~.860 OPS, and he had a good season in 2002, but barring some fluke he's bound to regress to his career .800 OPS numbers, with a "best possible outcome" of an .860 OPS imo.

Rowand's argument is the same; he's had two exceptional seasons, 2004 and 2007, out of 7. He's been a 'starter" for 6 years and has been better than Juan Encarnacion in 3 of them. The fact that he is having such a good year in his contract year is scary, imho. I believe he is also bound to regress at least some and definitely should not be paid like he is a .900 OPS guy.

It's tough to make a good argument for Ankiel and Ludwick because they don't have the history, but Ankiel has shown the ability to be great, not just "good", which is all Hunter and Rowand really are, and Ludwick definitely has the potential to be better than he has been this season. Even so, Ludwick has put up numbers approaching either of these candidates career numbers, and if you skip his first awful week in MLB his OPS is .840 (.868 after the second week and .875 after the third). I stand by my statement; whoever gives Hunter and Rowand their big FA paychecks will have a bad case of buyer's remorse, and soon.

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 23, 2007 5:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

ok, you won me over

"Show me a guy who takes his time on the mound and I'll show you a damned loser." - Leo Durocher

by mattyfrommo on Sep 23, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Next Year's OF

I did not realize that Ludwick was doing so well since the beginning. Maybe he can be an every day player. Here are some stats.

May - (first month) - .224/.255/.265/.520

May - June (first two months) - .222/.245/.394/.639

July - September (latest 3 month span) - .274/.359/.526/.885

September (latest month) - .281/.379/.491/.870

That is a great deal of improvement. Maybe an OF of Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick, and Edmonds wouldn't be so bad.

If Ludwick can put up .270/.360/.500/.860, Duncan can put up his career line of .272/.356/.528/.884, Ankiel can put up this year's numbers of .265/.315/.522/.837, and Edmonds can put up an average season (for how old he is) of .255/.355/.460/.815 in limited action...the OF situation could be okay.

stlfan

by stlfan on Sep 24, 2007 12:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

FWIW

Ludwick's Sep numbers are even better than that- .311/.417/.525 / .942 OPS. (72 PA)

I also think Duncan is a better hitter than that; if Ankiel is for real, we could have the best-hitting OF in the NL next season (maybe second best to Colorado, if we give Edmonds too many AB's).

"but the rain is so real, lord; and the rainbows pretend..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 24, 2007 12:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Health

Personally I really like the idea of Edmonds moving to RF and platooning with Ludwick. If Ludwick can hit LHP better then he did this year I think he would be perfect there. The problem with Ludwick has been health this is his longest out of 5 major league seasons but not the first time he has shown this potential. If Ludwick can stay healthy he can help us bridge out of Edmonds and help bring in Ankiel and Duncan as well. Also Ludwick has a grand total of 3 errors in his career, 321 POs 3 errors, that is a .991 FPCT for his career. He has 1 error this year in RF putting his RF FPCT at league average and his CF and LF stay at 1.000. He is just an all around good player but he has to stay healthy like he did this year and I think the time off is what helped him. Now we have to keep Jim healthy for most of next year or we might get a taste of Rasmus early (if he isn't in Bejing)

by StLHugo on Sep 24, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Rowand

I would love to get him. If he could be had for 4 years and 40 million, we should take a shot. He could play RF and we would be able to move Duncan/Ankiel in a trade for a pitcher.

Come on You Redbirds--Mike Shannon

by BluesDrummer85 on Sep 23, 2007 4:20 PM EDT 0 recs

I think our outfield is already set

for next year and barring trading Duncan for a SP, I don't see how there would be room for Dunn (although I'd love to have him). The other OFers on the market? I'd pass.

Three quasi-realistic trades I could see the Cards making are for Renteria (I'm not sure who the Braves would ask for, though), Burnett, and Cliff Lee.

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 23, 2007 4:36 PM EDT 0 recs

Renteria Trade

Escobar looks ready to play everyday at the MLB level. Renteria is owed $9m in 2008 and $11m on a 2009 option. The Sawx are paying the Braves $4m in 2008 and would pony up the $3 million buyout if the option is bought out.

I'd guess that Renteria would agree to a restructured extension that would include the buyout if he were traded back to the Cardinals. The Braves would no doubt want us to pick up all his remaining salary, only $5 million for 2008. I don't know what they'd want in return if we were willing to take all his salary off their hands.

I could see Tony La Russa agreeing to return for next season only if we picked up his old friend Edgar, so maybe it'll be a deal that gets done quickly.

by liam on Sep 23, 2007 4:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't know about anyone else

but I really want to see "Renteria" above the number "3" on the back of a Cards uni again.

Edgar is at the top of a list of players the Cards let go following 2004, and we've paid dearly for it.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 23, 2007 6:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Opps

I miss read the contract awhile back and thought he was only owed 1M next year but 4M still isn't bad and he had a career year batting line wise even if the counting stats aren't up to snuff.

by StLHugo on Sep 24, 2007 9:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

Dunn.

What is up with this man-love everyone has for Adam Dunn? Seriously, he currently holds the ALL-TIME RECORD for strikeouts. He may possibly be worse than C-Dunc in the field. Oh yeah, and he has gained like 1000 lbs in the last 5 years. He doesn't play hard.

I know his OPS is great, and he hits for tons of power, but he doesn't do much good for a team that already has great power potential but is speed-challenged. We could be the new Oakland A's. We could draw 1000 walks, hit 500 homeruns, and still not be able to score.

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Sep 24, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

If those HR were all solo shots

We would be getting close to this years run scored already. Surely a few walks would have been on base, so...

Speed is the single most overrated part of an offense. Power and OBP are where the real runs are scored.

by DriverZn on Sep 24, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

A lot of us

don't care about k's. Outs are outs.

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 24, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes

but some outs move runners over/into scoring position/home.

I don't think we need Dunn. We already have a bunch of K-prone outfielders with power who are faster, younger, cheaper, and better fielders. Even Chris Duncan.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 24, 2007 3:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

And other outs

are DPs.

I don't necessarily think we need Dunn, either (money better spent on pitching), but passing on one of the best hitters in baseball b/c he strikes out too much seems foolish.

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 24, 2007 3:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Clone

the thing is though do we have a clone of Dunn right now? To a lesser extent Duncan is a mirror image of Dunn, power, Ks, not great D. I think the Ks as a bad out argument is a very odd argument and to me it all depends on the situation. Man on third 0 outs? GIDP may actually be better especially if it scores the tying or winning runs but with 1 out already a K is never a bad out unless you were trying to bunt the guy over in which case while a ball in play could move the guy over, or could cause an error at least it doesn't cause a DP. The argument is a very large one that goes way beyond Dunn. The issue with Dunn and Howard with Ks though is that they are almost all or nothing, you get a big hit or a K and not much in between compared to someone like Bonds who takes walks yet still hits monster amounts of HRs. Very interestingly though Dunn still takes over 100BBs a year, which is more then Pujols has ever taken (in 05 AP took 97 this year he has taken 95) yet still less then Bonds. For their .270 batting averages Dunn still results in a lower OBP then Bonds because of that and how many of those Ks resulted from swinging at bad pitches versus how many HRs were off balls out of the zone? Like I said it is a very complex discussion that I have yet to look too deep into but in the end I don't think we need Dunn but I wouldn't be upset to see him join the Cards.

by StLHugo on Sep 24, 2007 4:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

True

that Ks seem a silly reason to get Dunn. But unless we move a bunch of that youth for solid pitching, we don't need Adam Dunn.

Still, I wouldn't be disappointed either. Especially if we somehow got pitching out of the situation.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 24, 2007 8:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

A-Rod

they need to pony up the cash for A-Rod

we CAN afford him, the owners are just too cheap

by Dankston on Sep 23, 2007 5:53 PM EDT 0 recs

You do realize...

That he's expected to opt out of a contract that guarantees him $27,000,000 each of the next three years, right? That he'd only do that to sign a contract for more years and more money, right?

He's probably looking for a contract worth twice what we're paying Pujols over the remainder of his contract and for seven or eight years.

It'd be great to see him on the same field as el Hombre for the next few years, but I'd hate to be stuck paying a 38 year old thirty million dollars or so down the road.

by liam on Sep 23, 2007 6:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Um...

A-Rod is quite likely to get $30 mil a year this offseason, assuming he leaves NY. The Cardinals won't even pay $15 to anyone, what makes you think they'd give anyone twice that...not to mention that the last thing we need right now is another hefty contract that goes past a player's ability to produce to their contract (see: Rolen, Edmonds).

by mojowo11 on Sep 23, 2007 7:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

A-Rod

The fans in NYC will not want A-Rod back if he opts out of his contract. If I was in the Yankee organization and he did that I would say "Thank you bye bye!"

Texas is on the hook for what 10mil a year if A-Rod opts out the next team is on the hook for the whole ticket. The Yanks already have anchor chains with Giambi.

I will predict that A-Rod does not opt out. He does he will be an outcast. Scorned for being greedy.

by nybirdfan on Sep 25, 2007 11:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

he's a true yankee

1. there is no such thing as "anchor chains" on the new york yankees. this is because they are the new york yankees. they're basically second to the u.s. mint in printing money. the yes network alone had revenue of $275 million in 2005, and i have to think that's gone up since.

http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6363941.html

arod already has the biggest contract in baseball history. i don't think opting out would make him an "outcast" any more than he already is.
if arod wants out of ny, he wants out of ny, and there may not be much the yanks can do about it. wouldn't blame him, btw. otoh, if the yankees let him go because of money, they are mind-blowing idiots. see #1 above - they should be able to pay $1 million more than any other team, and he's the best player with the splashiest headlines. it makes zero sense to let him go for financial reasons.

The Cardinals are coming, tra la, tra la

by nycbirdo on Sep 26, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up 0 recs