Dear Diary,

I've long been an admirer of this site, but, up till now, reluctant to fan my own of wafts of wisdom into the flaming pyre we've erected in remembrance of this spectacularly grim (for baseball) season.  Many times I've been tempted.  Once, with Scott Rolen homerless and on deck, I smelt the undeniably reek of the longball.  I hurried to create an account so that I might shout adjective-laden descriptions of my prophetic vision.  Of course, Internet offered her typical acid-spewing hurdles, and so I was denied my chance at infamy.  

Anyway, I've been compelled to tiptoe into the fray.  So I'm going to try this:

Lboros's analysis of the impact of ligaments, shoulders, and grief on the season seemed sound to me, and is certainly a reasonable perspective (meek and unseeable gestures indicate my non-patronizing tone), but I'd be inclined to believe the impact more severe.  (This is probably less worth writing than I think it is:  while Lboros relied in large part on silly old "evidence", I offer my perspective from the murky depths of assumptions and optimism.)  

First, so that I might further demonstrate my inability to bring worthwhile or fresh (or indeed, any) analysis this bloated old diary page:  Injuries are part of the game.  The Cardinals have been hit ridiculously hard, but the loss of Carpenter was enough to decimate their chances in any non-NL-central division.  We know their roster wasn't built with margin for error.  But, I think their roster was built to be pretty good if they could avoid error.  (Which, again, obviously wasn't a strong bet for leadership to make.)  

Prior to the season I was intoxicated by the possibilities of this roster.  Maybe I can tighten this mess up if I implement bullet points for my assumptions/hunches/hopes:

1.  Chris Carpenter maintains his acehood and health.
2.  Adam Waiwright becomes an ace.  **
3.  Anthony Reyes becomes an ace.  
4.  Kip Wells outpitches any bottom half rotation member in the league.  
5.  Braden Looper is a quality number five starter.  
6.  Jason Isringhausen rebounds. ***
7.  Scott Rolen builds on an his good 2006.  
8.  Jim Edmonds is a second half force, slugging with the upper tier of the league.  
9.  Adam Kennedy has, mildly, a career year.  
10. Chris Duncan hits 30+ dingers.  

With the season only several dozen runs-allowed from ending, those bulletpoints are embarrassing, and obviously the delusions of a fan who might have been better off had he avoided celebrating the first Cardinals World Series Victory since he was infant by indulging in a four month opium, doughnut, and sourball binge.  But, my blissful misgivings aside, I don't think it would have taken the miracle of full bulletpoint accomplishment.  Rather, I think I can haphazardly sling one facet into focus.  Indeed, pitching.  

Allow me a few more glazed-mouth moments to ponder the ramifications of one of the more reasonably-attained goals.  If Chris Carpenter misses no more than a handful of starts throughout the year, this rotation holds up.^  Adam Wainwright did become an ace.  Surrounded, or at least bordered, by success, I think Kip Wells avoids Kippian levels of ineffectiveness.  In light of Reyes newly-divulged aches it's obviously not likely Carpenter's presence would have been enough to make that changeup appear.  A team with a Carpenter, Wainwright, and good-Looper could, in theory, have winning streaks.  

So, I'll now offer the abridged version of this diary:  Irrationally and Pointlessly I think the 2007 Cardinals, Carpenter in tow, are a 90 win (or close to it) team.  

^I've unfairly avoided mentioning Josh Hancock's death.  Of course that is enough to render a game null.  

I have another eighty-thousand words to type, but I could really use a sourball right about now.  

Breathless,

Me

Clearly spending the offseason opium

1.  Chris Carpenter