Can you list off five young starting pitchers that will have the most successful, injury free careers?

When it comes to pitching and trying to change an already established pitcher there seem to be a number of things to consider.

1. Their current level of risk
   
2. The risk that changing them will render them inneffective.
   
3. Potential to reduce risk
   
4. Potential to improve effectiveness.

#1 is often hard to assess.  Some pichers with good mechanics blow up right away, other with bad mechanics have a long and injury free track record.  I don't think we fully know how to evaluate risk yet.  I welcome progress here.

2. Trying to change a pitcher that is successful doing things there way has its own risk.  There is a tradeoff here between a short successful run then injury VS the potential of being out due to ineffectiveness.  i.e. slowing down Willis to control his motion...
3. Assuming you can change a pitcher like Reyes, how much does it reduce the injury risk?  
4. Similar to #3, assuming you can re-vamp a pitcher, can you make them more effective?  Can someone like Mulder, Reyes, or Prior learn to pitch in a more correct and safe way?  Can they be more effective after doing so?

I hear a lot about pitchers throwing across their body.  Top 3 that come to mind are Wood, Alan Benes, and Ankiel.  All had very bright but very short runs a pitchers.  Could they have been as effective with correct mechanics or would that have cost them velocity, movement, and/or control?

"#1 is often hard to assess."

I think I'm on the way to figuring out how to do this. It turns out that long-lived pitchers tend to have similar mechanics at the core.

"Some pitchers with good mechanics blow up right away, other with bad mechanics have a long and injury free track record."

I question both sides of this statement. Please provide examples of each.

I have yet to see a long-lived pitcher with poor mechanics.

Also, Mark Prior had TERRIBLE mechanics, Tom House's pronouncements notwithstanding. People have to remember that House designed Prior's mechanics (and Anthony Reyes'), so he's not exactly objective.

"Trying to change a pitcher that is successful doing things there way has its own risk.  There is a tradeoff here between a short successful run then injury VS the potential of being out due to ineffectiveness.  i.e. slowing down Willis to control his motion..."

I agree. But once he's broken down, it makes sense to explore changing things. What drives me crazy is when guys like Chris Carpenter keep doing the same things that are causing their problems.

I think Willis' problem is his arm action, not his tempo or his leg kick. However, Willis' mechanics are a little wild and I didn't think they'd hold up as he got older. That's why Tiger Woods had to rebuild his swing as he got older. Also, while Bob Gibson was crazy at the end of his motion, he was very standard and controlled during the heart of his throw.

"Assuming you can change a pitcher like Reyes, how much does it reduce the injury risk?"

Dramatically, but not to zero. There are too many variables involved (e.g. conditioning and luck).

"Similar to #3, assuming you can re-vamp a pitcher, can you make them more effective?  Can someone like Mulder, Reyes, or Prior learn to pitch in a more correct and safe way?  Can they be more effective after doing so?"

It is EXTREMELY hard to change one's arm action, which is why I am focused on prevention via instruction at the youth level. What drives me crazy is people who teach kids to do stuff that will destroy their arms rather than teaching them to emulate Maddux, Clemens, Glavine, Ryan, and other long-lived guys.

There have been many cases of guys (e.g. Koufax and Maddux) getting much better by not trying to throw so hard.

"I hear a lot about pitchers throwing across their body.  Top 3 that come to mind are Wood, Alan Benes, and Ankiel.  All had very bright but very short runs a pitchers."

Kerry Wood's main problem was rushing (e.g. poor timing), not throwing scross his body.

I haven't seen enough of Alan Benes to render an opinion.

Like Wells, most of Ankiel's problems were between his ears. However, his mechanics (e.g. extreme reverse-rotation) didn't do him any favors. They were too hard to repeat consistently.

I'll respond. Chris, I've seen a ton of your stuff over at letstalkpitching, and you've helped me with some stuff, and for that I'm grateful. But I definitely have some issues with what you're saying here.

1. Why can't you say what team you're working for?
   
2. Right with you on this one, especially after hearing today that ARey has "tightness" in his shoulder.
   
3. I don't think Carp has "terrible" mechanics. Sure he's got some things to work on, but who doesn't? He's not a guy to build a franchise around? Man, if I was a GM I'd take seasons like the Cy-Young-winning 2005 even with some injury risk. Looking at the deal we gave Carp, and looking at the other free-agent pitchers at the time, can you really complain? I, for one, don't regret giving him that many years/much money, especially given the other options.
   
4. Agree 100%.
   
5. I disagree completely. I believe Mulder's mechanical issues are a result of his injuries, and once his shoulder is healed, he will be an above-average pitcher again. He said himself his shoulder prevented him from getting his arm in the proper slot. Once he gets fixed, he'll be fine.
   
6. What problems does Waino have? I know you think he gets his PAS elbow to high, but I have never seen a picture where it is above his shoulders. To me, he's got a good, fluid delivery, and his pronounced follow-through and PAS leg kick tell me he uses his body efficiently to throw the ball.
   
7. Gonna be tough for it to be worse. During this past offseason I was excited about '08, but after Reyes proving to have...issues...and Carp going down, I'm looking more toward '09 now.
   

8 & 9. Don't know enough about either guy to respond.

I guess my main beef here is that I do not believe at all that it is ever possible to look at a pitcher, say "He's gonna be injury free" and look at another and say "He's gonna get hurt." Too many variables.

And about Carp, I say again: He's good enough to look past the injury history.

I take a little bit of issue with your #9, that Carlos Gomez is "overly concerned with velocity and not sufficiently concerned with location, movement, and injury prevention." I am an avid reader of his at Hardball Times and swingtraining, and his number one issue is ALWAYS arm action and the stresses that are put on a pitcher's shoulder because of a poor arm action. He's not oblivious to injury risk, it's just that his concern is definitely a more short-term, results-based approach. Meaning that a pitcher is better served with a higher velocity and deception with breaking pitches through the exact same arm slot as the fastball. Don't take this the wrong way, but it seems that you are overly concerned with the long-term injury aspect and not enough with results based analysis. Which definitely has its place especially if you really are consulting a major league team. To be able to identify a long-term injury risk guy is very important, but on the other hand, wouldn't you rather have the high-risk high-performance pitcher (Burnett, Liriano) in the short-term than the safe pitcher? I think meeting somewhere in the middle is the correct approach, being able to identify the long-term contract pitchers like you say (Maddux, Oswalt, Lincecum) and the ones who aren't so deserving but will help you tremendously (on a 1 or 2 year deal) in the short-term when healthy. Looking around your site, I really haven't seen anything you have put out concerning location, velocity or movement either. If you could point me to it i would be very thankful (I lap this kinda stuff up).

I just revisited the case of Mark Mulder in my blog...

- http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ThePitchingMechanic/index.html

Basically, I think his problems are much more serious than is being let on. I think he has a major timing problem that is damaging is Labrum, not just his rotator cuff.

I'm not sure how much this was affected by his hip problems, although I could see it would be.

Izzy's mechanics at the beginning of the year were very different as he came back from his hip problem. However, they seem to have improved.

While I have no medical degree, I am an avid baseball fan, and I did pitch some in my younger days.  

I have got to say that I TOTALLY agree with you on the Prior/Reyes thing.  Their mechanics are spooky-similiar.  

I could not believe that anyone would approve of those mechanics, but I heard the experts ballyhoo about them for so long that I just came to believe I was a bit foolish to feel the way I do.  These guys base their whole motion on what I always called "loading their elbow".  I can't see how the human arm can stand that amount of constant torque.  Have you noticed that their forearms point almost directly at the catcher during thier motion?  Although both of these guys have tremendous leg movement, I don't think that translates well to their actual pitch.  They load their arm too late for their body to do them any good at all.  

I know it looks like "explosive" velocity (not my words, but I can't remember where I heard them), but I think that is because they delay their arm action too long for their leg kick and drive to do them any good.  

I always thought guys like Clemens and even Oswalt did a great job of using their whole body as a tool to build velocity.  Oswalt, IMO, uses his leg kick extremely well.  He sits above his rear leg, and explodes his whole body as he releases the ball.  Every part of it is there to create velocity, from his hip torque to his leg push to his arm motion. He doesn't have to use his arm that heavily to do it for him.  Shoot,look at the Big Unit.  He just "slings" his 9-foot long arm around his torso, creating gads of velocity without having to torque his elbow or his shoulder.  However, that may have some correlation to his back problems later in his career.  You know what, though?  If back problems as you approach 40 are all you have to deal with, I would call that a pretty successful arc.

I have always liked guys that use their big muscles to create velocity.  You can use your leg drive, your back, and your obliques to do that.  I personally believe that use of your "core" muscles is kind of ignored.  If you look at a great golf swing, most of their clubhead speed isn't derived from their arms or their wrists.  It actually comes from a great amount of torque of the midsection. Why don't pitchers attempt to do the same thing?