7 things not to do this offseason

by lefty fan on Sep 19, 2007 2:16 PM EDT Comment 27 comments

It's not exactly the deadly sins, but here are things I don't want to see the Cardinals do in this critical offseason.

re-sign David Eckstein: I love the guy but he's not that much or any better than Brendan Ryan or Aaron Miles when he is healthy. Save the money for pitching.
exercising So Taguchi's option: Ditto for loving So but we have cheaper parts that are just as good and/or better.
counting on any significant contribution from Mulder and Carpenter: If we learned anything from '07, it should be that you can never have enough starting pitching.
trading anything of value for Dontrelle Willis: For some reason I keep thinking that Walt is fixated on trading for Willis. He might be better than his stats this season, but I wouldn't give up any prospect to find out.
give up on Scott Rolen: I'm biased here because Scott is my favorite player. I want to believe that after this latest surgery, he still has at least 2 good years left.
planning on Jim Edmonds to be your everyday CF and bat 4th: I think Jimmy has been one of the best CF in the history of the game, but he's done as an everyday player. The team can't expect him to be an impact bat at a premium position everyday.
let Walt and Tony come back without contract extentions: Of course Tony has no contract for next year yet, but the days of this year to year junk should be over. We have seen what a distraction this can become to the team. If Bill Dewitt wants these guys to come back next season, he needs to lock them up for the next 3-4 years. This organization needs direction and another year of listing leadership doesn't help anyone.

Is it too early for the Hot Stove League yet!? I've never seen a season like this and the offseason is going to be damn interesting as well.

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I would also add, count on Ankiel to play everyday, count on Juan to make a full recovery, count on Wainwright not having a bad year, count on Reyes, Maroth, etc. for anything, expect Looper and/or Pineiro to be solid starters all season.

by StLHugo on Sep 19, 2007 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I guess it's a matter of interpretation

I would agree with you on Juan, Reyes, Maroth, and Pineiro but we have to expect contributions from Wainwright, Looper, and Ankiel if 2008 is going to be a winning season. There are too many other holes to fill without those guys.

by lefty fan on Sep 19, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright

What I meant was we shouldn't count on Wainwright to be our Ace we should focus on getting at a minimum a very solid number 2 that can act as that Ace until Carp returns or possibly the entire season, Looper and Pineiro are still questions to me but we should count on them as innings eaters just nothing more then that.

by StLHugo on Sep 19, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would agree with that

Wainwright's probably never going to be in the same category as electric guys like Peavy, Santana, or Beckett. But I think he can be a top 10 ERA guy. Either way, he'll be our ace until Carpenter gets back unless Walt pulls off some minor miracle.

by lefty fan on Sep 19, 2007 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On point 5:

During the radio broadcast last night Shannon said Rolen was showing off his "new" range of motion. He already has much better ROM and less pain than before the surgery...I hope this bodes well for next season. I still think Rolen's got a lot of baseball left in him.

by cardzfanbub on Sep 19, 2007 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It wasn't going to make a difference

but it would have been nice if Rolen had this clean up procedure early in the season and maybe would have been more product in the 2nd half. In the long run, I think Scott learned a lesson that it's okay to take a day off every now and then and get some treatment.

by lefty fan on Sep 19, 2007 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait, Scotty already had surgery?

I didn't know that.

by sdrone on Sep 20, 2007 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

September 11th, I believe

n/t

by Phyrkrakr on Sep 22, 2007 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On point 3

If you cannot rely on Carp or Mulder then you really need to treat 08 as a re-building year. Thats way, way too much $$$ sunk for nothing.

We need to upgrate 2B and SS from this year if we want any offensive production.

The only ways to get a legit #2 and #3 for next year is:

Trade prospects and screw yourself in 09.
Get lucky with a "project" pitcher
Spend way too much $$$ on a very thin market.

I would take my chances on the young players and whoever we can sign to a 1yr contract to fill in the rotation.

I am ok with Ryan at 2B or SS but we need to upgrade whichever one he is not playing. Thats our biggest need, not pitching.

I see the rotation as:

Wainwright
Mulder (Thompson as backup)
Pinero (assuming we can resign him)
Reyes OR whoever we get in the trade for Reyes
Franklin

Unlike Mulder, there is no reason not to expect Carp back strong in the future.

by DriverZn on Sep 19, 2007 6:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

except for

except for the fact taht he is getting Tommy John surgery and the list of pitchers who came back from TJ and were the same pitcher is very short.

i wish him all the best but i have to be reasonable.

by Dankston on Sep 19, 2007 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

85% of Carp is still one of the top ten pitchers

in the league.

by Valatan on Sep 19, 2007 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TJ is the one with the high success rate

Shoulder surgery is the bad one.

by DriverZn on Sep 19, 2007 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

TJ surgery is about as close to a sure thing as you will get...most likely Carp comes back strong, but it's going to take awhile.

Mulder is the one who I worry about.

'08 looks like a rebuilding year to me.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Sep 20, 2007 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TJ

The way I understand it is the surgery can actually make your elbow stronger, a lot of young pitchers are undergoing it in the hopes they can add a few MPH (stupid idea but heh). I fully expect Carp and Kinney both to come back strong from it and as long as their mechanics aren't shot to shit then they should be fine.

Mulder though is only going in for a cleanup not a full reconstruction so the Rotoworld blurb is a bit snarky but that writer has been bad lately at writing very sarcastic stuff.

by StLHugo on Sep 20, 2007 6:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't see

how it can make your arm better than its original construction. It seems to me that it would never be as strong as the original.

I base this opinion on intuition and not fact, so I am probably wrong.

Let me get this straight...Rowand over Pujols??? Really, Tony?

by cardzfan24 on Sep 20, 2007 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not that it

would be better than the original construction. It's just that it might be better than the original construction with thousands of innings logged and an injury to boot. They're ridding the arm of an injury that was thousands of innings in the making.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 21, 2007 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

From what I have read, that is not entirely true.

I've seen quite a few studies that claim the artificial ligament is better than the original. It's more elastic, wont deteriate at the same rate, and allows the other parts of the elbow to recover faster and stronger than the original because of less stress being placed on them.

Some pitchers even see a 2-4mph gain in velocity after the surgery. That is why, as someone already mentioned in this thread, some young pitchers are using this surgery as a preemptive measure.

TJ surgery really isn't a cause for worry as long as sufficient time is given for recovery from that actual procedure.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Sep 21, 2007 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For TJ success stories close to home

look no further than Matt Morris. He had TJ in 2000, then came back throwing mid-90s and had three very good years before running into other health problems. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, I believe the ligament that is put into the elbow came from the knee or somewhere else in the body, not an artificial ligament. Oh, and I almost forgot Al Reyes, who had 2 Tommy John surgeries.

by Phyrkrakr on Sep 22, 2007 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was

pretty sure it wasn't an artificial ligament used in these surgeries.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 22, 2007 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thompson

thompson wells,reyes will not be on the cardinals team next year.

08 rotation

1 wainwright
2 looper
3 pinero
4. hopefully burnettbut it will be somebody that is not a cardinals pitcher right now
5 mulder

screw the rebuilding year this team is only a few players away from being contenders again. 2 starters and a bat. so why not get what u need .there is no way reason to sit back and wait on prospects that might never develop.

HURRY BACK CARP AND MULDER

by LaRussa4President on Sep 19, 2007 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if burnett came here

hes number 2 when healthy

id add one huge one to this

dont count on DeWitt spending money to fix a problem when there isnt one to him]
he has a ring, and hes making out like a bandit with this joke of a rotation and cast away crew with call our 2007 Cardinals

as long as the sellouts continue, i wouldnt count on more than a maroth or wells to tide us over until he moves on

RESIGN JIMMY BALLGAME....HE SHOULD RETIRE A REDBIRD!

by benstl on Sep 19, 2007 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think management could thread the needle

this offseason and make the team competitive without sacrificing 2009. I would agree that Reyes is all but gone. Thompson is useful as your "6th" starter. I just can't see that they can count on Mulder given the history on rotator cuff surgeries. They have to find 2 dependable (read:high 4 ERA, innings eaters) starters that are not currently in the organization. If that costs them $18-20M next year, then DeWitt needs to find the money.

by lefty fan on Sep 20, 2007 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think you count on Thompson for anything

The guy has thrown too many innings this year, and I think it's only a matter of time before he comes down with a major injury. He already had problems in AA after seeing his workload go way up, and I just don't think he's going to be anything but a long reliever/mop up guy who throws around 50 innings a season in the future.

by Phyrkrakr on Sep 22, 2007 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2 starters and a bat

Assuming that's all we need, (and that's a big assumption) that could still cost you upwards of 30M dollars.

For a team that has much of the payroll already spoken for next year...I can't see that happening without the payroll being raised significantly. I won't be holding my breath.

"I'm hungry. Not for food. Just for baseball" Amaury Cazana Marti

by bobbyballgame1 on Sep 21, 2007 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another Angle

Yes, the Cards need at least 1 and possibly 2 starters for next year. If you can find a 1-2 year fix, (Schilling, Livan...something like that) it could be an option.

However, I am a firm believer that some of our pitching's biggest problems the past 2 years has been the deteriorating defense. One of the reasons that Duncan has had this great reputation of turning pitchers around is that he takes these pitch to contact guys and puts a great defense behind them and you don't really have to fix much about the pitcher.

Rolen has not been 100%, Pujols has played about half of this year hurt, Jimmy has been playing hurt for the past couple of years and Duncan, Encarnacion...etc are not as good as Sanders and Walker...but the biggest difference is up the middle. Renteria(Good) and Vina's (Good) defense here was very solid. Then Edgar(Good) and Womack(Average) were decent. Eck (Average) and Grudz (Good) were decent, but the past 2 years we have had 2 average or below middle infielders. Couple with the injuries on the corners and the decreased range in the outfield and this team probably misses out on 2-3 outs per game that the 2004 team would have come up with. Those 2-3 outs are the reason those 04-05 teams didn't have too many big innings against them.

Imagine Reyes getting one or two more outs per 5 innings he pitches and those 3 run homers become solo shots. His record and ERA would look much different.

Some people may want a bat, I want a defensive wizzard up the middle. (and if he can hit, that would be great.)

Personally, I would rather see Jaime Garcia, Walters, or one of the other youngsters get a shot with better defense behind them than to overpay for an average FA starter....

Just my 2 cents...no facts, just observation.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Sep 21, 2007 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right on the mark

Its why Soup, despite slightly worse bb/9, k/9, ... put up such good numbers in STL. Its also why his ERA spiked as soon as he left.

by DriverZn on Sep 21, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And I believe the folks at BP predicted this......

I know you all have seen enough of the Brewers this year to know that they have terrible defense every where on the field. If you have a pitch to contact kind of guy, you have got to have good fielders out there. The Pirates pitchers suffered through the same thing for years; this year, they finally have a reasonably good defense and it has helped their starters have better records. Same for the Cubs. They upgraded thier defense, and give Ramirez a hand, because he really worked on being better in the field, and he is, by a lot.

by jillsinmo on Sep 22, 2007 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs