I need help with RC and RC/G

by rocKStark5 on Sep 18, 2007 9:44 PM EDT

For argument sake I'm using Baseball-reference.com's RC.

Example Brendan Ryan's RC so far is 26 for 173 PAs and 113 outs and 54 games played which is a 6.2 RC/G.

How can you use that to project his RC for a full season of ABs if he were a full time starter?

Obv 6.2 x 54 isn't going to work, that's well over 26. I thought maybe 173/4 x 6.2 but that's not close either.

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I'm no stathead

by would guess you'd need to use his minor league numbers to paint a realistic picture.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 19, 2007 1:41 AM EDT 0 recs

I was

just using him as an example. I want to apply it to anybody that didn't have a full season.

by rocKStark5 on Sep 19, 2007 9:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well, 54 is exactly 1/3 of 162, so you could just mutiply 26*3 = 78, if you expect him to be used pretty much the same way. Or you could guess how many games he'll be used in, or how many plate appearances he'll have, and calculate:

(GamesExpected/54) * 26, OR
(PAExpected/173) * 26

by alberich on Sep 19, 2007 12:29 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm confused...

how can the RC/G be 6.2 if his actual RC is 26 in 54 games? Wouldn't RC/G be ~.48?

by cardzfanbub on Sep 19, 2007 12:52 PM EDT 0 recs

Bench Player

His stats have probably been altered since he hasn't played alot of full games, and has been used in pinch hitting spots quite a few times. Thus, even though he made a single appearance as a pinch hitter, it still counts as an entire game. This is my guess atleast.

It might be better to figure out how many innings he has played and divide by 9. That may or may not make a more reasonable answer. But I'm no mathematician, I'm probably dead wrong.

Time to bring up the prospects.

by CraveCase on Sep 19, 2007 1:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

RC/G!

Duh ... my bad. RC/G isn't the number of runs the player creates in each game - it's the number of runs per game which would be created by a lineup consisting of the player and 8 clones.

The other two formulas I offered will project to his RC over the season.

by alberich on Sep 19, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

Is 6.2...

the number that Baseball reference gives you? I get 4.333 RC/G (.48*9). Maybe baseball reference can figure with better hitters in front of and behind him he would create more runs.

Here's my theory for RC/Season would be either to project 54 out to ~155 games (approximately a full season)...actually theories.

155/54 = 2.87 * 26 = 74.6 RC/Season or

173/4 (PA's/avg. PA's per game) = 43.25 full games played...

155/43.25 = 3.58 * 26 = 93 RC/Season

by cardzfanbub on Sep 19, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yep,

I think you nailed it. I also misunderstood RC/G too. I'm not interested in RC/G at all then and your formulas are what was wanting...an estimation of his Runs Created if he had a full season as a starter.

by rocKStark5 on Sep 19, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up 0 recs