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Whats your trackrecord on deals?

We all have opinions when the teams makes big decisions. How did we do after the fact?  Be honest

Star-divide

With all the debate of late about what we will do in the offseason and what we should have done.  How have your opinions on previous deals turned out.  Over the last few years here is how I looked at the big deals.

Haren for Mulder:
I hated this one at the time.  Mulder had too many warning signs and Haren had a lot of positive indicators.  Clearly we lost on this deal.

Adam Kennedy signing:
While I wasn't excited about this I did think it was a good deal.  Looks like I was wrong as he went on to put up some of the worst offensive numbers in recent history before getting hurt.  If by some miracle he turns it around next year, this can be saved.

Converting Looper to a Starter:
I didn't expect this to work out but I didn't think the results would be a disaster.  Overall he has out performed my expectations which was he would pitch ok for half a season then break down.  I was wrong on this one, but not drastically so.  He did break down, but not badly.

Opening day rotation:
My vote was Carp, Wells, Wainwright, Reyes, Thompson.  My "in case of emergency" starter was Franklin

Picking up Weaver:
I was against this last season, again because it took time away from younger players.  It did work out well for the team.  Statistically we got really lucky.

Signing Wells.
For the $$$ I figured it was worth the risk.  I don't usually object to 1yr deals if there is potential upside.  We didn't get the upside but won't be sunk under a big contract either.

Letting Marquis walk:
I was all for it but I saw a good chance it would bite us in the but.  It did but I don't see how he would have pitched like this for us.

Letting Suppan walk:
All for it.

My offseason FA Pitchers:
I wanted Lilly based on the number he managed while working in the AL East.  

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This'll be fun
Haren for Mulder:
At the time, I was very down that we'd lost out on Hudson. Didn't know all that much about Mulder or any AL pitchers at the time but the news reports made it sound like a great under-the-radar pickup. I checked out Brian Gunn's Redbird Nation where he blasted the trade. Checked out Mulder's peripherals and was worried, but still thought he might just need a change of scenery. I thought losing Calero was worse than losing Haren, since we didn't have a spot in the rotation for him and he hadn't shown much as an MLB starter yet. I was young and dumb, and wrong.

Adam Kennedy signing:
Wanted Marcus Giles, who had a bad '06 and looked like a good buy-low player. I thought he was miscast as a leadoff man by the Braves and that he'd fill two needs on the Cards as a #2 hitter and second baseman. He ended up signing with the Padres at a well below-market rate to play with his bro, and we picked up Kennedy at below-market rates before Giles was non-tendered (if memory serves). I thought it was a good signing and still think it can work out over the next two years. He sure wasn't a positive contributor with the bat this year, though. So far, I was wrong.

Converting Looper to a Starter:
Thought it was a strange ploy to raise his market value at first. He did have a starter's build and repertoire, so took it seriously sometime in February. Didn't think he'd work out as well as he has. I was wrong.

Opening day rotation:
I wanted the Cards to pick up Brian Lawrence and Chris Gissell for the annual fifth starter competition. We had a contest here in February, I guessed the opening day rotation would be Carp, Wainwright, Reyes, Wells, and Jon Lieber. I was wrong.

Picking up Weaver:
Thought that Terry Evans was peaking in AA and that he wouldn't be able to sustain his hitting at higher levels at his age. He was heading into the OF logjam at AAA anyways and would struggle for playing time there if he didn't adjust immediately. Considering all that, thought it was a low-risk pick-up that panned out well for us. I was right! (Unless Evans goes on to have an all-star career.)

Signing Wells.
Good low-risk, high-reward signing. He's got great stuff, don't understand why he can't translate it into efficient, effective starts. Can't say whether I'm right or wrong. He could still win some games for us and we needed some candidates to start ballgames.

Letting Marquis walk:
To hell with 'im.

Letting Suppan walk:
Great guy, deserved his big payday—just not from us.

My offseason FA Pitchers:
Gissell, Lawrence, Wells. None of them had good seasons. It was a lousy free agent class for pitchers, what can I say?

by liam on Sep 16, 2007 5:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Answers
Haren for Mulder:
Hated it.  We gave away a guy who was projected to be a #2 in a year or two for a guy who was already a #2 and in decline.  I did like that it gave us a lefty starter tho.

Adam Kennedy signing:
Meh...  I thought it was a "good deal,"  but I would have perferred Bellilard since he doesn't have an awful platoon split and I thought Belli was a better glove man.  As it turns out I overestimated Kennedy.  Yuck.

Converting Looper to a Starter:
I thought he'd do better.  I figured he'd be a fine #3 or #4.  On this team he is a #2, but on a contender in any other division, he'd be a #5.  His strong start did not surprise much, but his bipolar performance has.

Opening day rotation:
My vote was Carp, Wells, Looper, Wainwright, Reyes.  I figured Wainer would split time between the rotation and 'pen as I expected little from Izzy.

Picking up Weaver:
I was dead set against paying him any more than $2-3M for 1 year.

Signing Wells.
I thought this was a great move.

Letting Marquis walk:
I though this was necessary, but his performance with the Cubs does not surprise me.

Letting Suppan walk:
I would have liked to keep him for ~$5-6M per year, but not for the deal he signed.

My offseason FA Pitchers:
I didn't think there was anyone worth getting that the Cardinals could have signed.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Sep 16, 2007 7:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll bite
Haren for Mulder:
Liked it at the time but I wasn't as statistically inclined or as generally well informed about baseball when it went down.

Adam Kennedy signing:
Liked it, and still do.  If Kennedy comes back and plays well the deal can redeem itself.  If not, 2B is one of the deepest free agent positions and Jarrett Hoffpauir should get a look next year too.   This is the kind of smart low-key signing that helps the Cardinals afford their more costly payers.

Converting Looper to a Starter:
Did anyone think this could be successful?  That said he's probably not going to be a workhorse for 200 innings ever.  Combining him with a Brad Thompson to get all those starts taken care of over the course of a year is a cheap way to fill out the back of a rotation.

Opening day rotation:
Carp, Wells, Looper, Wainwright, Reyes.  I'm still a Reyes supporter and I expected things good things from Wainwright.  The Wells move was a nice try but I wish that the team would be quicker to pull the plug on "reclamation projects" when they just don't work.

Picking up Weaver:
Didn't give up a quality prospect.  Didn't bother me.

Signing Wells.
Low-risk, high reward.  It's a fine signing but the in-season management of Wells has been pretty bad.

Letting Marquis walk:
He's not a good pitcher.  He's definitely not someone I want to be spending $7M on a year.

Letting Suppan walk:
I hope he invests the brewer's $40M wisely.  

My offseason FA Pitchers:
I liked Schmidt who obviously was more hurt than anyone knew.  He was really the only pitcher I wanted to target.  Again, he could redeem his deal by coming back healthy.  Short-term deals for pitchers are just the best way to go, even at that price.

by azruavatar on Sep 16, 2007 8:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Opinions
Haren for Mulder: I liked Mulder, and the fact that he was a lefty.  I was firmly against giving up Haren for him, though I guess if we had gotten Hudson I would've been happier.  I knew we were mortgaging the future for the present and that is never a good thing, not even for the Yankees.

Adam Kennedy signing: Not happy about it.  Do we really need an aging former Angels middle infield with declining range and production?  I don't think so.  Pretty much anyone could've done better than Kennedy.

Converting Looper to starter: Why not?  I was open-minded enough to think it might be successful.  However, I've been surprised by the several games that Looper has dominated.  He's been good, if not inconsistent.  I think he'll be better next year, once he's got a whole year of starting under his belt.

Opening day rotation: As long as Carp and Wainwright were there, I didn't care.  I'd like to see Reyes succeed as a starter, but it's not happening while he's wearing the BOB.

Picking up Weaver: I was okay with this move.  Weaver (like Wells) has always had decent stuff with lots of movement and was certainly an upgrade over Ponson.  Why not pair up Weaver with Duncan and see if the magic happens?  I was thrilled with and surprised by his excellent post-season performance, and it didn't cost us much.  I wanted us to resign him, though I knew Boras had dollar signs in his eyes after the postseason.

Signing Wells: Just like Weaver, Wells has always had good stuff and potential.  Pair him with Duncan and see what happens.  I was a little more skeptical with this one, though.  But he was nails in spring training, so I got really excited.  Looks a little premature now.  I'd like him out of our 'pen next year, available to spot-start when Muld2D2's arm falls off.  Kip can dominate for 2-3 innings.

Letting Marquis walk: It was in everyone's best interest, kind of like with Reyes, to let Marquis walk.  I figured he'd do okay with the Cubs, but Lilly's been the real surprise there.

Letting Suppan walk: I was disappointed that it came down to money because Suppan did well as a Cardinal and I would've been happy if he'd been resigned at a less expensive contract.  But for that much money?  No way.  I don't think he'll ever be as successful as he was here.

Offseason FA pitchers: Lefty Lilly piqued my interest, but I'm holding out for Johan. :)

by spants on Sep 16, 2007 10:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

RE: Lilly
ERA+ the 5 years prior to this season:
109, 80, 120, 98, 120

I don't see how his 119 this year in a much easier league surprises anyone.  Getting to face Pirates and Astros instead of the Yankees and Red Sox will do wonders for your ERA.

by DriverZn on Sep 16, 2007 10:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I guess
I figured he'd let the HRs fly at Wrigley.

by spants on Sep 16, 2007 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good questions
Haren for Mulder:  I liked it at the time.  It's one thing to point out that Haren has been better than Mulder- he absolutely has, rapidly increasing hat size notwithstanding- but the amount he has improved surprised me.  Also, 2004 Carpenter looked like a fluke; we didn't really HAVE a guaranteed ace, and I thought Mulder would be him.  Sigh.

Adam Kennedy signing: Liked it too.  If he had put up career-average numbers, it would have been a great deal.  

Converting Looper to a Starter: Hated it, with reservations- I had enough respect for Duncan to believe it possible, and I'm of the opinion that pitchers are pitchers and arbitrary titles like "closer", "starter" and "reliever" are bunk, but  I was also pretty sure he'd hit the DL at a critical time (which he did).  Like liam I thought the idea was to try to trade him mid-season.

Opening day rotation:  Carp, Wainwright, Wells, Thompson, Reyes.  I'm a big thompson fan and it's a shame he didn't get more of a chance in the rotation; we'd probably still be in the pennant race if he had.  I did not think AW would be as good as he has been, nor Reyes as bad, though I was much lower on Reyes than most.  

Picking up Weaver:  I think we would have had exactly the same post-season success without him last year.  However, moving Evans got Mather more at bats in Memphis this year, so I'll admit to being wrong about hating this deal.  In retrospect it would have been worthwhile to bring him back but at the time I thought we'd be fine.  

Signing Wells.  Thought it was a nice high-risk, high reward kind of deal.  I still think Wells could be an ace if he'd suck it up and act like a man on the mound.  He's the type of guy who would benefit immensely from roid rage- wonder if there's a legal way to simulate that?  Sleep deprivation combined with reverse anger management therapy?  Maybe a shocker collar like you'd put on a dog, and Dave Duncan can randomly zap him during the game?  (sorry, paid over $400 for tickets for the game he gave away on Labor day and am far from over it)

Letting Marquis walk:  I cheered when the cubs signed him.  not cheering now, but he wouldn't have pitched like that for us, and he probably won't pitch like that next year for them.

Letting Suppan walk:  I was sad, but thought Reyes could do the job better.  I was wrong, though re-signing him would also have been wrong...

My off-season FA Pitchers: I was right about both Zito and Schmidt.  I wanted Wolf, which was unwise.  We probably should have traded for pitching.

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 17, 2007 12:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i've got a paper trail for most of these
mulder for haren: it happened before i started blogging, so i don't have a post to cite . . . . which is good, because i was dead wrong about the trade. i thought it was a sensible move --- the team was in win-now mode, and it was a win-now trade. but mulder turned out to be worse than i expected, and haren turned out to be better. . . . wrong.

adam kennedy: "have the cardinals signed him just as he's sliding onto the downward arc of his career? they might have, but there's one big reason to hope not: the ballpark factor. angels stadium has been murder on kennedy the last few seasons; getting out of there can only help his performance. . . " wrong.

looper to the rotation: "He'll probably be about as good as the more conventionally groomed alternatives (Chris Narveson, Ryan Franklin, Randy Keisler, and Josh Hancock all were considered for the job)." right.

opening day rotation: can't cite a specific post; i wanted carpenter / wainwright / reyes / wells / franklin, with looper back in his old role as setup man. i thought it made zero sense to use a starting pitcher (franklin) as setup man and a setup man (looper) as a starter . . . .

weaver: "weaver isn't a very good pitcher . . . even if he returns to his "peak" form of 2004-05 --- and that comeback can't be taken for granted --- he is a slightly above-average starter, a presentable #3. that's the best-case scenario. the worst-case is that he becomes this year's version of jason marquis, the struggling veteran hurler who stays in the rotation and gets chance after chance to turn the corner, while younger but potentially better pitchers languish. . . . ." right.

kip wells: "because of the cards' low (relative to market) investment in wells, i don't object to the signing --- but he's a longshot. i hope he pays off, but i'm skeptical that he can stay in the rotation and pitch effectively." right.

letting marquis walk: i started lobbying for the cards to trade him in the middle of the 2005 season . . . . was glad to see him go. still glad he's not on our team.

letting suppan walk: "supps might help prop things up for a year, but it's likely that by year 2 of the contract --- and even more likely by years 3 and 4 --- he'll be dead weight, soaking up payroll and blocking the path of better pitchers who have moved up through the minor-league ranks." right.

off-season FA pitchers: i liked lilly a lot: "if he simply maintains his established level of performance, he instantly becomes a strong #3 / borderline #2 pitcher in st louis. but there's good reason to believe that lilly can raise his game. . . . . " right. but i also liked schmidt and woody williams; wrong. i didn't like padilla or eaton; right. but i didn't like gil meche either; wrong.

by lboros on Sep 17, 2007 1:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i forgot about narveson
I actually wanted him to be in the playoff rotation last year...  oh, what might have been.

Taking that thought one step further, I wonder how different this season would have been if Hancock had been picked as the 5th starter?

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 17, 2007 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and away we go,,,,
i liked the mulder for haren deal at the time. yet i felt we gave up far too much. giving away barton hurts almost as bad as giving away danny. i hated losing kiko because i think he's a good reliver, and i loved saying his name.

hated picking up AK. we should have resigned Gangsta Luv. period.

much like the rest of the world i thought converting LOOP into a starter was a sick, sick joke. gald i was wrong.

i dont remember my starting 5. it could have been
Carp
Anthony
Adam
LOOP
Puppy Kicker or Kippy
but i could be wrong. i usually am.

was all for keeping Dream Weaver, but not at his asking price. 3yrs/$20mil is all i would have given him.

i wasnt excited about KIPPY. thought it would be a smashing success, or a crushing defeat. sadly it's been the later.

f bi-polar betty.

sorry to see soup go. glad he got his big pay day. even happier he didnt get it from us.

i wanted lilly pad, wolfe & schmidt.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Sep 17, 2007 2:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i'm the same as you, driver...
except i actually liked the mulder deal at the time, and didn't really like the kennedy deal (thought they overpaid).

my starting rotation for this season was exactly the same.

The Cardinals are coming, tra la, tra la

by nycbirdo on Sep 17, 2007 11:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

and i argued pretty hard here for lilly.
The Cardinals are coming, tra la, tra la

by nycbirdo on Sep 17, 2007 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really Interesting Topic
Haren for Mulder:
I've always been a Haren fan, still am. But we did need a good #2, at the time, so I think the Cards should have gone for a FA instead.

Adam Kennedy signing:
Well, we needed someone, and Miles wasn't exactly the best person for the starter, and there was no way we could have known that Belliard was going to have to better this season. Plus, I don't think the fans like him that much. Probably the best FA sign at the time (not that the Cards did much).

Converting Looper to a Starter:
Hooray, Just imagine where the Cards would be without his start this season. With the Astros.

Opening day rotation:
Carp, Waino, Reyes, Looper, Wells

Picking up Weaver:
Better than Ponson, so it's a plus.

Signing Wells.
They need to rework his contract to be a relief pitcher or drop him. (I would prefer #2).

Letting Marquis walk:
Thank you Cubs.

Letting Suppan walk:
Well, I would have been up for putting up some money for him, but not the amount that the Brewers gave him. #3 guy at best (which right now would be tied with Waino)

My offseason FA Pitchers:
I've always been one to pay for two #1's in case something like this season happens. The Carp/Morris combo was good in my books, but they need to realize that aces need money. Just not Zito, he's not worth it. Oh, and a right fielder (not any more, since the call-ups have done pretty well, Ankiel.) Thank you, Ludwick.

Time to bring up the prospects.

by CraveCase on Sep 19, 2007 1:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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