Game 146 Open Thread: September 15, 2007

by lboros on Sep 15, 2007 9:29 AM EDT in News


lilly	looper
15-7, 3.85	12-10, 4.70

pj walters pitched well but got taken deep twice by nick hundley as the springfield cardinals lost 3-2 in game 3 of the texas league playoffs. the cardinals trail 2 games to 1 in the series and need to win the last 2 games to claim the championship. game 4 is tonight; adam daniels pitches.

regarding our own birds, i'll repeat what i said last time wainwright lost a game like this:

if you're still holding out hope for the 2007 playoffs, that's a tough loss last night --- another opportunity the cardinals couldn't afford to miss. if you're like me, it doesn't sting so much. i've marked that one down as a positive learning experience for a key player --- wainwright matched 0s with one of the best pitchers in the league over the last two years. . .

given all the criticism jocketty has taken for trading away danny haren, he needs to start getting praised for picking up wainwright. the deal that brought adam over in december 2003 was not popular at the time; walt gave up a couple of good, established hitters (jd drew and eli marrero) for a young pitcher who'd failed under leo mazzone (marquis), a double A prospect (wainwright), and a LOOGY (ray king). a lot of cardinal fans thought walter had lost his mind. but in addition to bringing three good arms into the organization, that deal cleared a couple big salaries off the books, freeing up the payroll space to sign jeff suppan and reggie sanders a few days later. so the trade was essentially drew and marrero for marquis, wainwright, king, suppan, and sanders --- a masterstroke. the two pennants and world title that ensued would never have happened without that deal. and wainwright was the key to it; if schuerholz hadn't included adam in the package, walt wouldn't have made the trade.

hgh-disclosure fallout: since the news broke ankiel is 2 for 28 with 0 walks and 9 strikeouts.

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Comments

Credit given freely here.

You're right, Lb. The Drew trade was a brilliant move; it was also sort of a watershed or turning point for the team. The first few years of the decade, it seemed as if all the moves made were to bring in more bats, add veteran leadership, and add payroll. That deal really set in motion the new direction that worked so beautifully for the next couple seasons.

Now we have a young stud pitcher ready to anchor a great Cardinal team. I just hope the front office figures out a way to provide it to him this offseason.

If you don't ask me to dinner, I don't eat.

by the red baron on Sep 15, 2007 9:49 AM EDT 0 recs

You're absolutely right, credit should be given

The refusal to go forward with the trade without Wainwright is going to be key to our future success.

by nycardfan on Sep 15, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up 0 recs

+1

by acham8206 on Sep 15, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

It is, what it is.

It was a nice effort, but the plain facts are, that the Cubs are a better team than we are right now. I can't tell you how much it pains me to say this, as I live in the Chicago area, and I am so not looking forward to going to work on Monday. But we have to face facts: Their starting pitching is vastly better. They put a better team offensively on the field. They have a good manager now. Our only advantage is the bullpen.

Unless the Cards can reenact 1964, our opportunity for 2007 is gone. I just hope they can hang in there and not get embarrassed the rest of the season.

Now, how do we get better next year?

by Anteus on Sep 15, 2007 9:55 AM EDT 0 recs

Salary differential and offseason spending

I'm going to try to stay away from all of the injuries to our team. I'll just look at the team payroll (w/differential) and what the teams spent in the offseason.

For now, both teams are close in the total payroll area; Cubs (8) and Cards (12)

Chicago Cubs 99,936,999
St. Louis 90,286,823

Thats a difference of 9,650,176. Before you say, "well the Cards didnt do anything in the offseason to get better.", I'll tend to agree. Though, who couldve forseen what this season would hold?

Offseason spending. I'm pretty sure this is where the disparities start. The Cubs spent an astronomical amount (to me, anyway) of money in the offseason, to play at or around .500 ball. I, for one, wouldnt be too excited about that, considering we spent markedly less and are still within striking distance of them. Though, I too am starting to lean toward the negative side of the, "it aint over yet" statement.

Dont give up boys!

by yer dog first on Sep 15, 2007 12:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

On Ankiel

Not sure that if this has been said or not. Wouldn't it be more realistic to assume that his skid is more of a transgression to his career averages than because of the HGH story? I mean I loved the "Natural" story as much as anyone and the timing I guess can not be ignored, but we are talking about a guy that hit .267/.314/.568 in AAA. Now after this stretch he is at .284/.331/.587 at the MLB level. Too me it seems more like Rick is coming back to reality after a very hot start rather than imploding as he did in '00/'01.

by jgist on Sep 15, 2007 9:59 AM EDT 0 recs

You're absolutely correct....

...he was playing way over his head. I will concede that the "story" might have burst the bubble, but that bubble was going to pop anyway.

by Ignatius J Reilly on Sep 15, 2007 10:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

was just gonna say the same thing

he is not as good as his early numbers, nor is he as bad as his recent slump would indicate. i'm not naive enough to think the hgh thing hasn't proven to be a distraction, but he also is what he is...which is pretty much all or nothing hacker type. he could come around to be about his mean expectation type of line...or he'll just end up a tragic figure. again.

Future Redbirds

by erik on Sep 15, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

he was due to regress, obviously

he wasn't / isn't a .350 hitter or an .800 slugger.

but there seems to be a clear relationship between the hgh disclosure and his subsequent slump. was he gonna regress anyway? yeah. but the hgh thing probably hastened / sharpened that regression.

sometimes a change in performance simply represents random variation, and sometimes it's caused by something else. i think this falls into the latter category.

by lboros on Sep 15, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

I agree

the timing between the two is too exact. The quetion in my miind is how will he recover, now that he has been thrown off stride at a key time in his development (and given his past experiences in the big leagues).

by nycardfan on Sep 15, 2007 11:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

Me too.

The birds went from being a confident club on the rise led by a young slugger who was hitting lights-out, and after THE STORY broke, everything went down the toilet for the hitter and the team. A little too much of a coincidence, methinks.

"We're sniffing the winning situation."

by MdRedbirdFreak on Sep 15, 2007 11:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

I hate being this guy

28 ABs - 9 Ks = 19 BIP

2 Hits / 19 BIP = .105

That's his BABIP. I don't know the composition of the outs -- GB vs LD vs FB -- or anything else (and I personally agree that the HGH thing probably has messed with him) but this could be the most ordinary of luck induced slumps as well.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Sep 15, 2007 12:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Duncan has been given enormous

latitude on this site during his various extended slumps. It seems that Ankiel should be supported, or at least given some slack, in a similar way.

He's new to the big leagues, he did not have as many at-bats in the minors as is normal, he's a lot like Duncan in that he strikes out quite a bit and needs to learn more plate discipline. In Ankiel's favor, he looks like he has been making adjustments better at the plate than Duncan has (or least he was until the story broke). And his potential in the outfield far surpasses anything Duncan is capable of (he has The Arm).

I'm sure the story knocked him and the team off their stride. But I also think he has a good chance of coming back. He looks relaxed in the field again and at least he's beginning to make contact again with his bat.

Remember that there were arguments not that long ago about Wainwright's fixed "ceiling" and that, supposedly according to his statistics, he could never be a front of rotation guy or that he could drop his ERA below 4.25. And of course there's the glaring disconnect between Reyes' minor league stats versus his major league performance (I guess that would be a fixed "floor").

Given that, I'm uncomfortable slotting players too early in their careers and setting an artificially low "ceiling" or "floor". Baseball involves so much physical and psychological maturation that it takes more time than their minor league experience affords to gauge someone's real capacities.

I don't think we have a good idea yet which direction Ankiel will go--he's given different glimpses of his talent, just like Duncan has and just as Wainwright did early on in his minor major league career.

by nycardfan on Sep 15, 2007 11:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think both are probably true

he was due to regress; the league would start to adjust to him and he's going to have to adjust to it as well. But the timing of his slump is eerily coincidental.

The good news is that the season's about over. This could be a lot worse had it occurred in May. He should be able to start fresh next spring -- w/o all the distractions from the HGH, w/o feeling like he has to carry the offense to the title, and just play ball. He won't be a superstar but I do believe he can be a solid contributor to the offense, once this distraction is past him.

by chuckb on Sep 15, 2007 12:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

IZZY

I was busy last night and was not near a computer to post anything. I was reading some peoples post's about Izzy walking Kendall.

That was an outstanding move. You have no shot a scoring a run against Big Z if he pitches the 9th inning. You walk Kendall so Pinella has to decide if he wants Big Z hitting with the bases loaded or a pinch hitter. Larussa/Dunc knew that if Z comes out Demp closes. Demp is very shaky especially with a 1 run lead. Ward just came up with a big and put the Cubs up enough that the lead held.

Anyone think Edmonds could have caught that ball had he been playing deeper? It seems like he was playing shallow. I have voiced my opinion a lot about Edmonds poor positioning. He is playing too shallow, as he just cant go back on balls anymore. That ball hung up forever and it barley made it to the warning track. That ball should have been caught.

by ICbirdfan on Sep 15, 2007 11:26 AM EDT 0 recs

I was at the game

I only questioned the walk to JJ not to Kendall, I knew why that happened but I was pissed to see Ward as the pinch hitter given that Ward has killed us all year long. Great game and WONDERFUL bottom of the 9th, not enough but man the energy in the stadium was awesome. First time I have seen Pujols hit a homer in recent memory and I got the double treat of Edmonds and Ludwick too, man that was a great game too bad Izzy gave up that double.

by StLHugo on Sep 15, 2007 12:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think Jimmy

knew it should've been caught, too.

We had good opportunities to go .500 over the last 8. Knowing that makes the losing streak that much more painful.

by liam on Sep 15, 2007 12:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

more on Haren

I always liked Danny and hated to see him go but I chuckle at those who now criticize that trade. If you recall, the Cardinals were a near juggernaut at the time....seeking what seemed to be the final piece to a Championship puzzle, a top shelf number 2 starter to pair with Carp in the playoffs.

Mulder was clearly that guy given his stats over the previous five years. One would expect to pay dearly for him and we did.

The "He was hurt and on the way down" argument is mere hindsight. Yeah, his previous six months weren't great but all the docs gave him a passing grade. (and I cringe when bloggers critize MDs, especially our own)

Yeah, Danny's been better and we'd rather have him. But at the time, I would have made that trade with my eyes closed. To conclude anything else is simply 20/20 hindsight.

by Hinkster on Sep 15, 2007 12:11 PM EDT 0 recs

Except

some of us actually thought it was a bad idea at the time. I have witnesses.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 15, 2007 12:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

not entirely hindsight

many, many people criticized that trade at the time it went down. i did not ---- i thought it was a reasonable risk to take, and i didn't anticipate haren being this good or mulder being this bad.

but there were plenty of voices (esp within the stathead community) who predicted, correctly, that the cardinals would regret the trade.

by lboros on Sep 15, 2007 12:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Again.

I'd make the trade again. Mulder helped get the team over the hump and he helped get the team to the postseason last year. I'd do the trade over again and wouldn't think twice about it.

by champion on Sep 15, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

No way

In 2005, Haren and Mulder at the very least were equal pitchers. Haren, however, cost about $7 million less. We all know how 2006 turned out.

I didn't like the trade then, and I absolutely loathe it now.

by 26thMan on Sep 15, 2007 7:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Disagree

Most likely, without Mulder, the Cardinals do not make the playoffs last year. I'll trade Dan Haren for a World Series victory five ways till Sunday.

by champion on Sep 15, 2007 8:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

What?!

Mulder was terrible last year! We almost missed the playoffs because TLR kept running him out there.

I hope you mean 2005...

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 15, 2007 8:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Last Year.

Nope, last year before he was in injured. Haren didn't come into his breakout season until 2007 so pining over wanting him in the team in 2006 is a poor exercise, in my opinion. Mulder has a chip on his shoulder so I expect him to have a monster 2008 as long as his rehab comes along as scheduled.

by champion on Sep 15, 2007 9:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Just because your claim is THAT silly:

Better marks are in italics.

Danny Haren

2005: 14-12, 217 IP, 3.73 ERA, 120 ERA+, 1.221 WHIP
2006: 14-13, 223 IP, 4.12 ERA, 108 ERA+, 1.206 WHIP
2007 (so far): 14-7, 202 IP, 3.11 ERA, 141 ERA+, 1.209 WHIP

Mark Mulder

16-8, 205 IP, 3.64 ERA, 117 ERA+, 1.376 WHIP
6-7, 93.3 IP, 7.14 ERA, 62 ERA+, 1.704 WHIP

2007 (so far): 0-2, 8 IP, 12.38 ERA, 35 ERA+, 2.375 WHIP

Granted, 2007 Mulder is recovering from a surgery. I think his mechanics are whack and if he doesn't return to 2004/2005 form in the physical act of pitching, he's never going to be better than Haren again.

Still think Mulder helped us in 2006? More than Haren would've? Remember: W-L record isn't always indicative of the quality of pitching. I'm sure Haren lost some games when he probably shouldn't have, and Mulder probably won some games he shouldn't have. If you want, we can call 2005 a push, but in 2006, Haren is CLEARLY the better pitcher.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 15, 2007 11:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hmm...

Did you factor into account the games in 2006 when Mulder was pitching while he was injured? Those last few starts were out of line, to me, because something was seriously wrong with him. Then again, data doesn't lie...right?

by champion on Sep 16, 2007 7:59 AM EDT up 0 recs

None of that

made any sense. You didn't respond to anything I said. Technically, he was pitching injures in 2005, too. Look at the ERA+. Haren is now, and has been for three seasons, the better pitcher than Mark Mulder. I like Mulder; I hope he regains his As form because even in 2005, he was already flawed and not the dominant Mark Mulder we were expecting to see.

Basically, you're just saying that Mulder helped us more in his 93 innnings of 7 ERA ball than Haren would've helped us in his 200+ innings of 4 ERA ball. It's ludicrous and you've said absolutely nothing to back up your claims.

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 16, 2007 2:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

You

can't compare start-by-start with the pitchers. The circumstances were totally different. What I'm trying to impart to you is that a) Mulder wasn't a very good pitcher last year, injury or no, and that he'd already started going downhill in 2005, and b) a healthy Danny Haren definitely would've contributed to more wins than Mulder did. The Cards only won 83 games last year; Haren's 8 more wins would've put us at 91 wins on the season. Not too shabby.

Haren's peripherals are better than Mulder's. It's just that Haren isn't a groundball pitcher, so he didn't fit into the Cards' pitching philosophy.

Check out Hardball Times. Learn about the different ways of judging a pitcher's performance. Then we can have an enlightened discussion. Until then, you're just making statements with no weight.

Player Stat pages at Hardball Times
Haren
Mulder

Spantalones

by spants on Sep 16, 2007 2:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Some reason my post didn't show up

But bullet points:

Cardinals trade a pitcher who could be good over 10 years for a polished guy they hoped for 2.
As you said, they needed that final piece. Their Pettite to their Clemens, their Schilling to their Pedro.
They also needed an insurance policy for Chris Carpenter should he get injured for another postseason.
The Godfather of Seoul, Hee Sop Choi is the reason, in my mind the Cardinals weren't NL Champs again in 2005. Scott Rolen doesn't make that ridiculous throw Hector Luna did in Game 3 of the NLCS.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Letter Writing/Media Relations Campaign

Has a letter writing/media relations campaign done purely by the fanbase ever persuaded ownership to sign a player? Why don't we use this site as a springboard to force ownership's hand to do everything in their power sign A-Rod?

Daily Kos and other grassroots/netroots type websites have done well in pushing their agenda on the powers that be. I'm sure we can muster enough publicity around the country to make a stand. I want ownership to sign the best hitter in baseball to hit behind the best hitter in the National League. We deserve only the best. No more league average filler types on the roster. Sign the best.

How do we make this happen? I'm totally serious. If we want A-Rod to come to St. Louis we need to be proactive NOW.

by champion on Sep 15, 2007 12:33 PM EDT 0 recs

Future

I wouldnt want us to mortgage our future just to "win now". It doesnt make sense to me. Were not the Yanks, Sox or any other high-falooting team w/bucketloads of cash. I agree, it would be nice to have A-Rod, but I dont see it happening (esp. if it hurts the future of talent). A hitter isnt the only thing we need right now anyway. I believe that the starting rotation is a bit of a shambles right now. Wouldnt it be smart to invest some of the $30 mil that A-Rod is going to want/year, into some good SP (i.e. AJ Burnett, Johan, some other upper tier FA SP)?

Dont give up boys!

by yer dog first on Sep 15, 2007 1:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Answer.

Wouldnt it be smart to invest some of the $30 mil that A-Rod is going to want/year, into some good SP (i.e. AJ Burnett, Johan, some other upper tier FA SP)?

No.

A-Rod fills so many holes on the team with one signing. Plus, the merchandise sales and the exposure he'd bring to the franchise and the city of St. Louis is worth it - in my opinion. Aim high. Settle for nothing but the best.

So, where should we begin the Sign A-Rod Movement? Bernie's Pressbox? Constant call-ins to every sports radio show in the area? Letter writing campaigns to DeWitt and each of the managing partners?

Let's move!

by champion on Sep 15, 2007 5:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Linuep from Yahoo!

Game 1
A. Miles 2b
S. Taguchi lf
A. Pujols 1b
R. Ludwick rf
J. Edmonds cf
Y. Molina c
M. Cairo 3b
B. Looper p
B. Ryan ss

No Ankiel against LHP. Not that it really matters. He couldn't hit a Jugs machine right now.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2007 12:53 PM EDT 0 recs

I highly reccommend reading

the link that FJM posted today (for a laugh). It references this post by a former major leaguer about prospect evaluation -- the comments are priceless.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Sep 15, 2007 1:02 PM EDT 0 recs

this and the trade a-rod link

are two of the funniest sites on the internet.

by acham8206 on Sep 15, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

link

http://tradearod.com/

by acham8206 on Sep 15, 2007 1:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

I guess everyone is still in bed.

Looper gets out of trouble.

In New York, Pedro is getting pounded by the Phillies.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2007 1:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Ok

how he got out of that, I don't know. 1 run against Pedro. Should have been worse.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Would you agree that Lilley's performance...

...this year is the biggest surprise in the NL Central?

by Ignatius J Reilly on Sep 15, 2007 1:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Without a doubt

Lilly is the difference between the Cards and the Cubs right now. Even with all of our injuries, we sign Lilly, we are in 1st place.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 15, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think that called igh strike is the biggest

surprise in the NL central..

by outraged on Sep 15, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

If not him...

I'm floored at how well Marquis has pitched. I figured he'd get shelled at Wrigley.

Jason Bay's subpar season was a surprise to me.

I'm surprised that neither Harangatan nor Cornroyo have spent significant time on the DL after the abuse they've taken for their third consecutive season.

by liam on Sep 15, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up 0 recs