AJ Burnett

by stlfan on Sep 14, 2007 10:45 AM EDT

OK, so I'm not advocating that the Cards MUST go get AJ Burnett or anything. In fact, I am of the opposite belief that AJ is not good for the Cardinals because he adds another oft-injured pitcher who's arm might fall off at any moment. The big "but" is, did anyone see the numbers he put up last night to stop the streaking Yankees? The Yankee lineup is completely bombing the ball right now. In the since stopped 7 game win streak, they scored 55 runs. That's almost 8 runs a game for a week. They hit .297 as a team, with an OBP of .349, and a SLG of .558 (that's a team OPS of .947!) They also had 16 homers and 17 doubles in those 7 games.

AJ's line last night:
8 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 R (earned), 8 Ks (10:6 GB:FB)

That is downright nasty against that lineup.

stlfan

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You're absolutely right about one thing

With Carpenter out for most/all of next season, the rotation is in need of another pitcher who has a favorable chance of putting up slump-busting numbers like that.

A pitcher like that can not only bust slumps, but start/continue win streaks.

by SethWestern on Sep 14, 2007 11:31 AM EDT 0 recs

and AJ was hurt this year

because he was abused extremely heavily. I forget the exact numbers, but it was something like 400 pitches over the 3 starts before the last DL trip... he wouldn't have that problem here, most likely, since one thing TLR does is take care of his starters (and our bullpen would help him considerably).

I'd say if there's any chance of getting him, we should go for it in the off-season. A rotation of Carpenter-Burnett-Mulder-Wainwright going into the playoffs next year would be a lot of fun to watch...

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 14, 2007 12:53 PM EDT 0 recs

If he's available

I think they should go after him. I know he's frequently injured but even if you only have him for 25 starts a season, that's better than not having him for those 25 starts. And he's worth the money.

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 14, 2007 1:11 PM EDT 0 recs

He's worth $500,000 a start?

Eh, I'm not going to argue with that. I just thought it a funny way of putting it.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Earlier this year...

When Burnett first got injured we might've been able to swing a decent trade for him since the Toronto GM was pissed off with him and said he regretted ever signing him. We all know how performing well and winning changes things, so i'd assume Toronto is pretty happy with him right now and that would up the price this offseason.

by lopey986 on Sep 14, 2007 1:57 PM EDT 0 recs

Schilling

They'd be better off signing him for 1 season and seeing if the market is better next year

by zolak16 on Sep 14, 2007 2:47 PM EDT 0 recs

Agreed

I am fully onboard with going after Schilling. He is likely to accept a short-term contract and he and Wainwright would be a nice one two and hopefully Mulder and Looper will fill out as three and four.

by OCCardsFan on Sep 14, 2007 8:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

opt-out...

... i believe that Burnett has an opt-out clause in his contract, similar to A-Rod's, and i've heard rumors that he's likely to exercise it if he finishes the season strong and healthy.

that means that we won't be trading to get him at 11 million/year. it means we'd be bidding for him, probably at 5/70 or something like that.

and the Blue Jays get the shaft, having paid him 11 million for a couple of injury-ridden years.

by kindred on Sep 14, 2007 4:04 PM EDT 0 recs

The opt out is after 2008

the Cardinals could trade for him for a 1 year rental with hopes of resigning him.

Call up PJ Walters!

by Hardcore Legend on Sep 14, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

This is exactly why he's a viable option

with any luck, he would pitch well, opt out, and become a free agent, thus allowing the Cards to avoid the final 2 years of the contract. I don't know what it would take to get him, but it's something we should pursue in the offseason.

by houstoncardinal on Sep 14, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

he would cost the entire farm system...

... which makes him not a viable option. this team needs to get younger and less injury-prone, not older and more risky.

giving up top prospects for a rental in a re-building year isn't usually a good idea.

by kindred on Sep 14, 2007 6:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

actually

the Jays got him for the first year for about $7M and then $12M/year for the next 4. If they traded him this off season he would have ended up costing them a total of $19M for 2 years, which is a fairly good deal.

"and we're grasping at rainbows, holding on till the end..."

by SleepyCA on Sep 14, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

A good deal?

$19 million for 45 (or so) starts for a non-playoff-contending team is a good deal?

yeesh.

i mean, he's been good when healthy, but he's not exactly setting any records. He's not the best pitcher on his own team, and he's only thrown 170+ innings in a season 3 times in his career (~ 130 last year, ~ 155 this year).

by kindred on Sep 14, 2007 6:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

i watched that entire game

AJ was dealing. the Yanks had no chance last night. he made ARod,Jeter and the boys look down right silly more than once. the YES guys kept saying all game how AJ had games like this, then would get hurt for 2 months. how he showed so much promise as a top of the rotation guy, if only he stayed healthy. make me think of Anthony. how he'd be a top flight starter if only, you know what i mean?

any way, he didn't want to play for the Cards a few years ago, so i'd pass on him. he had his chance. he took money over playing at "home". that put a bad taste in my mouth for the guy. yes we need starting pitching, but i dont think AJ's our guy. i think it would cost way to much to trade for him, or to sign him if he can get out of his deal with the blue jays. dont get me wrong, if the Cards got him, i would not be mad. unless they gave him crazy money or traded some top blue chip kids to get him.

in my uneducated opinion AJ is not worth the asking price.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson And That's A Winner!

by gdm426 on Sep 14, 2007 4:13 PM EDT 0 recs

AJ is a great pitcher. He's 30 years old.

He's been on the DL 10 times. TEN TIMES! I could live with 25 starts. I can't live with the idea of NO starts, another pitcher we are waiting on to come back. He has had enough serious injuries that the next one could be his last. You only sign him if you plan on getting whatever you can get from him, and you have viable options to step right in when he goes down. The Cardinals rotation ain't there yet, so I say no.

by jillsinmo on Sep 14, 2007 6:03 PM EDT 0 recs

He averages

19 starts a year and hasn't been under 20 since '03. Even if he only starts 20 times, that's still 20 times that the next kip wells/sidney ponson won't be starting. And hell, it's not our money, why not go for it?

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 14, 2007 6:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

ugh

I don't say this entirely to pick on you, jill, but "great" is WAY overused ir reference to athletes.

A.J. Burnett is 67-65 lifetime with a 3.72 ERA, mostly in the NL.

In 9 years, he's broken the 200 innings mark twice. Say what you want about being abused(someone said he threw a a lot of innings in only a few starts) but he's injury prone and barely over .500 for his career. He has never finished even in the voting for the CY award.

His sub-4 ERA shows he's a GOOD pitcher, but not one you can count on for any level of durability, and certainly not great.

A.J. Burnett is worth taking a chance on if he's being sold cheap, but if we have to give up any of our good prospects, then he's totally not worth it.

by mtalken on Sep 14, 2007 9:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe great is way overused. I should say he

can be a very good pitcher. And he has pitched for some less than good teams-the lifetime ERA is pretty good. I don't really want him, because we are already waiting for Mulder and Carpenter to get healthy. He is definitely too risky as an option. And he won't come cheap.

by jillsinmo on Sep 14, 2007 9:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's easy to focus on

what Burnett can't do (pitch 200 innings) and gloss over what he does very well (pitch 150 innings of 3.50 ERA ball). He's a very valuable commodity given what he can do. Leveraging him along with someone like Pineiro or Thompson who is serviceable as a 6th starter still combines for an above average pitcher.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Sep 14, 2007 11:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, I know he might give you 150 good and some

possibly great innings.......but there is always a possibility with him that you are going to get a breakdown.....I mean it IS in his past that he breaks down quite regularly. That doesn't get better as a player ages. It just doesn't. I would not think it wise to give a big contract nor trade the farm for him, especially while we are waiting on Carpenter and Mulder. It's a very big risk. And I wouldn't even be so sure that Toronto is going to let him go anyway. They gave him the contract that the Cards weren't willing to-remember-he really may have no interest in playing here-he chose Toronto before.

by jillsinmo on Sep 15, 2007 12:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

It is a very big risk

but it's also a great reward.

While I agree they shouldn't give up the farm (or even a few acres of the farm), if he can be had -- especially for a salary dump -- they should take a run.

Well, let's go to the old mill anyway -- get some cider!

by Alxfritz on Sep 15, 2007 12:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

HE WOULD BE A GOOD CARDINAL

THE MONEY IS A ISSUE. BUT WITH THE MONEY STARTING PITCHERS ARE GETTING HE IS WORTH IT. HE HAS AWESOME TALENT. AND IF HE STAYS HEATHLY HE COULD WIN 20 GAMES.I DONT THINK THEY WOULD HAVE TO GIVE UP VERY MUCH. I WOULD OFFER A PACKAGE WITH REYES AND OTHERS TO GET HIM.I WOULD HATE TO SEE REYES GO BECAUSE I THINK HE HAS TALENT. BUT I AM NOT SURE YOU WILL SEE HIS TALENT IN A CARDINALS UNIFORM. USE HIM TO GET A QUALITY PIECE. THIS TEAM RIGHT NOW IS ONLY A COUPLE OF STARTERS AWAY FROM REALLY BEING GOOD. WHEN I SAY THIS TEAM I AM COUNTING ROLEN ,DUNC,ETC.BUT WITH

WAINWRIGHT
BURNETT
LOOPER
MULDER
PINERO/FREE AGENT

AND MAYBE CARP BACK IN SEPT. THAT WOULD BE A GOOD ROTATION. IT MIGHT BE INJURY PRONE BUT WHAT ROTATION ISNT.

EVEN WITH ADDING A BURNETT TYPE GUY. THE OFFENSE STILL NEEDS HELP. AND ANKIEL MIGHT BE THE GUY TO DO THAT. BUT SHORTSTOP NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED. OF COURSE I WOULD LOVE TO SEE EDGER COMEBACK. I WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SEEING ECK COMEBACK. IT SHOULD BE A VERY INTERESTING OFFSEASON. THE FIRST THING IS LARUSSA NEEDS TO COMEBACK AND HELP LEAD THIS TEAM BACK TO THE PLAYOFFS. THEY WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS IN 08 IF THE OWNERSHIP ALLOWS WALT TO SPEND A LITTLE BIT OF MONEY.

BACK TO A.J. REAL QUICK. THIS GUY IS NOT SOME OLD MAN YOU ARE SIGNING OR TRADING FOR. HE IS YOUNG AND VERY VERY TALENTED.

HURRY BACK CARP AND MULDER

by LaRussa4President on Sep 15, 2007 5:34 AM EDT 0 recs

All this yellin'

You're not gellin'.

Let me get this straight...Rowand over Pujols??? Really, Tony?

by cardzfan24 on Sep 15, 2007 8:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

larussa4president?

you said it perfectly in your opening paragraph "IF HE STAYS HEALTHY" which, odds are, he wont. has this season taught you nothing? injuries are not a good thing. you shouldnt just brush it aside and say "what rotation isnt injury prone?", he is 30 years old and has been on the DL someone said what 10 times already? take into account the money (remember how cheap dewitt is) and what we would theoretically have to give up to get him, its not worth the risk.

as a sidenote: eckstein needs to be gone, he is the worst leadoff hitter in baseball because he has absolutely zero speed and cant hit anything more than a single.

by Dankston on Sep 15, 2007 4:33 PM EDT 0 recs

EVERY PITCHER IS A RISK

so why not try to take a risk with someone who has talent.

HURRY BACK CARP AND MULDER

by LaRussa4President on Sep 15, 2007 10:16 PM EDT 0 recs

Every pitcher is a risk

But some have higher risks than others. Burnett isn't exactly a risk--he is a certainty. The guy will be DLed during the year. I happen to agree with you, but our ownership will have to swallow hard before they OK a trade or a signing for a guy who will certainly be injured for at least some time.

Let me get this straight...Rowand over Pujols??? Really, Tony?

by cardzfan24 on Sep 15, 2007 10:52 PM EDT up 0 recs