Two articles of note
On this slow Monday in the NL Central before the last big push for October, I was listening to sports open line on KMOX for a bit on the ride home. The host, Kevin Wheeler, mentioned two articles that I thought were worth sharing.
This first article written by Will Carroll at B-Pro questions the old adage that pitchers that work quickly will get better results from the defense behind them, whereas pitchers that are deliberate and take too much time between pitches lull the defense to sleep and don't get the outs. He actually used the following quote from LaRussa for the basis of the article:
"The pitcher has some responsibility for that when a play doesn't get made behind him. You have to pitch with a good pace and be aggressive so guys are ready for the ball."
Carroll cites a study from earlier this year by Dan Fox where they actually found out that statistically it doesn't make a damn bit of difference. Unfortunately, the Dan Fox article is only available to subscribers but I thought I'd share the article and get some opinions on what you all think.
National League playoff race draws a crowd
This second article from Bob Nightengale at USA Today has a quick blurb in the enclosed sidebar on the left from Bud Selig dealing with the fact that MLB almost decided to add two additional wild card teams a few years back. Here's the quote from Bud:
"There was even strong consideration several years ago, Selig said, about adding two more wild-card entrants. The idea was rejected."
"There was a huge push to increase it to four, and I honestly thought we would," Selig said, "but I decided not to do it."
Wanted to see what everyone thought about that as well...
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8 comments
Comments
Is Tony right?
There's a logic to it, but as Carroll points out, that may work in Little League but Derek Jeter's not going to fall asleep b/c a pitcher takes an extra 15 seconds between pitches. Fox's research bears that out. People will have a hard time with this b/c it does make sense but, the bottom line is, there's no empirical evidence to support it. Sure, people will be able to point to the time where Pitcher X was taking forever and the next ball was hit to an infielder who promptly booted a double play ball, causing his team to lose the game. But Fox's research shows that there's no evidence to suggest that the first, necessarily, caused the 2nd. In other words, he probably would've booted the ball anyway. I love this stuff.
As for adding 2 teams to the Wild Card, I think it's a horrible idea -- not b/c I'm a traditionalist who hates the WC. I don't; in fact, I quite like the WC and think that often teams deserve to make the playoffs when they're very good but end up in a tough division. I hate the idea b/c adding 2 teams to the playoffs gives the top 2 teams a bye in the first round of the playoffs. That's a huge imbalance to create.
You might argue it's unfair b/c it gives the 2 best teams the time to set their rotations and get everyone healed, while not risking them to a first round knockout. It might also be unfair b/c they'd have to go about a week from playing, while their opponent's hitters will have their timing and their pitchers won't be rusty. If the point of the playoffs is to determine who the best team is at that point in time, it should be as level a playing field as possible and the extra 2 teams would create 2nd round matchups that are horribly imbalanced. If WC teams are added, I think you'd have to add 4 so that everyone still plays a first round series, but I wouldn't do that b/c undeserving teams would end up in the playoffs.
by chuckb on Aug 27, 2007 10:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I see both sides of the coin...
On something like having a runner in motion though, while it won't increase the hitters ability as you mentioned, it does do things like open up holes in the D and can cause miscues like a throwing error or even keep you out of a double play. I wonder if there's any research out there to support or disprove any of those notions.
I'm not a fan of the extra WC team either but someone did suggest an alternative to the first round bye approach. Instead of giving the top team in each league a first round bye, just make both WC teams play a quick best of three series. It would give all the division leaders a short rest and would make the road a bit tougher Wild Card team that wins the best of three series. Again like I said, not a fan to begin with, but this approach might make more sense than giving the #1 team in the league a whole week off.
by birds 4 life on Aug 28, 2007 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adding play off teams
Right now in the NL there are 5 teams chasing the Padres. That's a race! If two teams are added then the Phills and the Dodgers are in and the race gets deluted.
The only problem I have with the wild card is what happened in 2005. The Cards won the central and the season series with the Stros, but still had to face them in the NLCS. My additude at the time was 'we beat these guys already why do we have to face them again!' In '04 we won the division by 13 games why did we have to play the Astros?
I am sure if the Cards were the wild card I would have felt differantly.
by nybirdfan on Aug 28, 2007 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I kind of liked it.
by gibbyfan on Aug 29, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
My problem was simply that we had them beat in 05 and still had to face them, and lost to them. I was glad to see them get swept. I was also glad it wasn't us loosing 8 straight World Series games!
by nybirdfan on Aug 29, 2007 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just on intuition
I am stunned that empirical studies don't back this up.
As to extra wild card entrants, the nixing factor is the lay-off a "bye" team would suffer from.
by CurtFlood on Aug 28, 2007 8:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Another article of note:
It is a compare-contrast of Jocketty/LaRussa to Purpura/Garner. It really shows how well the Cardinals have done with their money the last few years, with the decline of certain players due to many circumstances, AND with the reloading of the system for future years. I am very impressed with the simplicity with which this depth of material was stated.
stlfan
by stlfan on Aug 28, 2007 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One key difference
There have been key, bargain basement additions that really do distinguish the two clubs. We weren't blessed w/ a great farm system but Walt's made some very good finds that have played key roles -- Ludwick, Kinney, Al Reyes, etc. and the Astros really haven't. They've, basically, stuck w/ what they had, for better or for worse and, usually, it's been for worse.
by chuckb on Aug 29, 2007 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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