Wagonmaker and the Extra Innings

by rajah424 on Aug 27, 2007 3:45 PM EDT Comment 5 comments

All in Cardinal Nation have to be pleased with the progress of the Wagonmaker this season. My question is with maybe 6-7 starts left this season and a possible 40+ innings, not to even discuss (knock on wood) a possible post season, when has his arm had enough? We have all seen what has happened to Mark Prior, who many felt was push to far to soon. How does the organization handle the best young prospect down the strech?

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This is an interesting question

in 2005, Wainwright threw 184 IP (182 at Memphis) -- the most he's ever thrown in 1 season. Clearly, this team can't be successful, down the stretch or in the playoffs, w/o Wainer, so he's going to have to pitch.

He's at 156 IP right now so, you're right, he's headed toward 200 IP. In 2003, Mark Prior threw 234 IP, counting the playoffs. If the Cards make the playoffs, Wainwright will certainly be over 200 and would approach Prior's total if the Cards made the World Series. It seems to me that there is reason to be concerned about Wainwright's total, b/c he would be such an integral part of the Cards' postseason.

There's no way he gets shut down; he's just too damned important but the Cards will be running a pretty big risk by pitching him throughout the playoffs. That's not likely as the Cards have about a 10% chance of making the postseason but, once there, we'd have to say about a 25% chance of making it to the World Series. He could, conceivably, be asked to pitch twice in the Division Series, twice in the LCS, and twice more in the World Series. 6 starts takes him to 35-45 IP, so he'd end up between 240 and 250. That's quite a lot for a 26 year old (Happy B-day, Thursday, Adam).

However, Prior was just 23 when he carried that load. Maybe the 3 years makes a difference. But I would be very concerned, as a Cards fan, every time Wainwright took the mound this October. I don't know what the right answer is, but I know that Wainwright would be out there every 5th day.

by chuckb on Aug 27, 2007 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

Prior in 2003 averaged 113.4 pitches per start compared to '07 Wagonmaker's 95.3, so the usage comparisons aren't exactly comparable.

I think he'll be OK.

by liam on Aug 28, 2007 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I would argue that avoiding high pitch count starts is much more important than the total number of innings.

by DriverZn on Aug 28, 2007 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the research done by BP

suggests that you're right. What is most damaging to pitchers is not throwing often, but throwing when you're tired, i.e.: after throwing 100+ pitches. So the pitch count criticisms (of the comparison) are fair.

But I think the fact that he might end up throwing 30-40 more innings than he's ever thrown in any season is something to be cognizant of, and somewhat concerned about.

There were some suggestions that Mark Buehrle's struggles last year were partly caused by all the innings he ended up throwing in 2006. Of course, he threw over 260 IP after the World Series, but he had also had a series of 200+ IP years.

I'm not suggesting we shut Wainwright down, but he should be watched very closely if the situation presents itself and at least plant in the backs of our heads the notion that maybe taking it easy on him the early part of next season might be a good idea.

by chuckb on Aug 29, 2007 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

PLUS

The rumor is... Prior was a juicer. Makes sense since he's fallen apart so fast. Stop with the roids and your body begins to degenerate. So they say... as a reason why it might be ridiculos to accuse Bonds.

Anyway.

You think we could sign Mike Vick?

by onebigdummy on Aug 28, 2007 10:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs