Proposed Trade and Other Stuff
I am of the ilk that Tony LaRussa is one of the main factors that this team is above 500 right now. I also think that as long as Tony and Dave stay Walt will stay (and Jeff will build the farm until it gets the recognition it deserves).
That said, I think Reyes is not a pitcher who is going to stick in STL (as much as I wish he would). So hit the jump and I'll let you know what I would trade him for as well as my plan for the Cards through the rest of this year and in 2008...
My Reyes Trade:
Anthony Reyes and pick a reliever (say Mark Worrell, Dove, Thompson, Motte - hopefully not Motte, etc etc.) for
Elvis Andrus
Why the Rangers would do it - Micheal Young is signed long term and will remain at SS. My understanding is that he has 5 years remaining on his contract and effectively blocks Andrus at SS. Andrus is a bit of an enigma, but the bottom line is that he is a top 50 MILB prospect (Baseball America, Derick McKamey, and Others) who happens to play SS and is blocked. His numbers aren't outstanding this year, but the fact of the matter is that next year as a AA SS he would be expected to playing most of the season at 19 years old and I would project (for what thats worth) plus defense 350 OBP, maybe 400 SLG, 30-40 SBs. Lots of upside, but blocked for the Rangers.
Also, from the Rangers perspective they get a prospect who (from everyone's perspective) the Cards have horribly mismanaged. Reyes in my eyes is a starter with a #2 ceiling that has a decent chance to reach his potential. The downside for the Rangers is that he is a flyball pitcher, but, I don't think that in itself would preclude the Rangers from doing this deal. I say they are all over it...
Why the Cards would do it - Dunc and LaRussa are fed up with Reyes and visa versa for Reyes with Dunc and LaRussa. Elvis Andrus provides another possible solution for SS with unbelievable upside. This type of player is rarely available but in this case, he is. Andrus hasn't played above high A, so the risk with Andrus is high, but the potential reward is the best SS in the minors think Jose Reyes probably with a bit less power...
What does the group think?
Now for Random thoughts:
- The Rangers would also potentially include Edison Volozquez in a deal, obviously the Cards would need to give something up, but that would be an interesting addition to the deal above (EV just doesn't seem like the kind of guy the Cards would typically target due to apparent attitude issues)
- I officially hate the walk and ABSOLUTELY do not want to see Kip Wells back next year. He reminds me alot of Tomko. Great stuff, but not likely to ever realize his potential because he doesn't seem to want it bad enough..
- As an aside I think the walk is why PJ is AA while Ottavino remains in High A.
- Rolen isn't right - He is the key to the Cards success in the upcoming seasons. Hopefully the shoulder heals...
- How hurt is Jaime Garcia?
- Hawk's 2007 season reminds me quite a bit of the wagonmaker's 2004 season. Lets hope Hawk can follow in Wainright's footsteps.
- Why are the Cards leaving Craig in High A? DO you think they have an interest in getting Craig a High A MVP award then moving him to Springfield for the playoffs?
- How could the Cards justify not calling up Joe Mather and his 30 HRs (and lefty mashing 1000+ OPS by the way...) or Haffpauir (sp?), or Mark Worrell? These guys have thoroughly earned a call up and I will be very upset when their call up goes to the Kelly Stinnett and Miguel Cairos of the world
- Other than the obvious 40 man concerns why wouldn't we call up a young CF with + speed and a 920 OPS in AA? Why wouldn't we call up Chris Perez who has blow away the competition type stuff? Do we really have enough 40 man concerns that this is an issue?
- Anyone think that Tyler Greene has supersub potential? I don't think he is the SS of the future but 760 OPS in AA after his horrid 2005 ain't bad and he is athletic enough that I would guess he could play any position but pitcher and catcher and would be a great pinch runner on top of being a power bat off the bench.
45 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
No thanks...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Aug 26, 2007 3:14 PM EDT reply actions
See Response Below
In Andrus you have a ceiling that is MUCH higher than those two (again reportedly).
I think Kozma has a higher ceiling than Andrus...
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Aug 26, 2007 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Gotcha
I guess the flip side is that Rasmus had a very similar initial scouting report out of BA in 2005.
Another negative
- Hanley Ramirez or
- Joel Guzman
The job isn't without risk!
A few things about this post
- Andrus is not the best SS prospect in the minors, a lot of people think Reid Brignac and Carlos Triunfel are just as good if not better.
- Why do the Rangers want a flyball pitcher, in Reyes?
- Elvis is at least 2 years away, and has huge bust potential.
- Edinson Volquez is dominating AAA, he argueably has more value than Reyes by himself.
- Chris Perez has huge control problems, shouldn't call him up.
by bigboy1234 @ Viva El Birdos on Aug 26, 2007 3:18 PM EDT reply actions
Quick response
- My words I believe were Top 50 prospect and best "potential." The second statement is highly debatable and when I say potential I mean upside potential. Today Brignac is obviously a better prospect (but is untouchable so not mentioned). Triunfel has one good year under his belt and is interesting - I'll give you Reyes for him too!
- The Rangers want any living breathing pitcher with #2 starter upside. As you read in my post, that is a negative, but at the end of the day I think the Rangers would take their chances. Just my thought for what that is worth.
- Agreed he could very well bust. To me, we have Pete Kozma, Brendan Ryan, and Jose Martinez who collectively will net us at least one league average shortstop. That is why I would be willing to roll the dice on Elvis Andrus. He could bust, but he could also be a top 5 MLB player (see Ramirez, Hanley; Reyes, Jose). And yes, he would take two years, but that is not a bad thing from my perspective.
- Agreed, I didn't say they would give him to us in this trade, just a guy I am keeping an eye on b/c recent reports are that the Rangers are unhappy with him. His MLB experience thus far has been disasterous, but he has huge potential. If the Rangers are looking at a change of scenery trade where he was included I think that would be interesting...
- Hasn't Izzy had control problems on and off (admittedly not so much this year)? Check out Perez's 2007 BA against, WHIP, K/9, etc. etc. etc. Again, if we are looking to win now and need to strike a batter out or get little to no contact and we want to give our best a taste of the big leagues in Sept I can't think of a rational reason not to call him up...
keep reyes
by LaRussa4President on Aug 26, 2007 3:54 PM EDT reply actions
I'd rather
Maybe I'm just high on the way Ryan has been playing lately, but I would be perfectly content if this offseason we only upgraded on pitching, but that is a definite: we need to improve our pitching. This is a good offense, with a lot of guys showing promise (Ludwick, Ankiel, Ryan, and more in our minors), but they're not going to win games if we continue to have the league's worst starting pitching.
Yep
- Carp (when it counts)
- Wainright
- Mulder
- Free Agent (Say Silva)
- Looper
- Hawk/Maroth/Pinero/PJ Walters
re: Looper
I definitely would like to keep Reyes, but I'm
Maybe take a look at Minnesota's Scott Baker for a trade.
If they were willing to deal with the Cubs, maybe try to get one of their lefty starters like Sean Marshall. There would probably be other players involved for that deal to work, but Pinella has a whole different idea of what a well pitched game looks like then LaDunc, and he'd be happy to work with him--he's more coachable than Marquis, that's for sure, and they have been able to work around Lilly's flyball tendencies. Would they be willing to risk him turning it around while on the Cubs mound?
They might be smarter to just keep him around, because he's almost there, and he's definitely a better option than Kip Wells-he's 30 already....and I'm not sold on Joel Pinearo just yet...his home run rate so far is frightful.
I never really answered your question.....
We're not over .500 right now
Pythagorean
Again, not saying he makes all the difference but if you ran our Pythagorean record I think we are playing more than 5 games above that and that is how I "judge" managers. Flawed as it is...
Reyes in a package
do that and you don't get a pitcher...
we could make up some of that by letting Miles/Gooch/Springer go, but then you've got a rotation of Mulder/Wainwright/Looper/Reyes/Maroth/Pineiro(if we pick up his option) until Carp comes back.
unless, of course, DeWitt and co. expands payroll.
p.s. why in the hell are we still paying Rincon $1.5 million? what a horrible signing.
No it doesn't
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 26, 2007 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I dunno
If it was someone who would at least be ready for 2009, I'd probably think more highly of this, because I'd like to see a mass migration of our top prospects all in one year, like Perez, Rasmus and (whoever would be gotten in a potential trade).
I also am not sure I buy the idea of going after Renteria though. IT doesn't fulfill the need of getting cheaper, so that we can afford to fill in other spots with top-tier guys. I guess Renteria is top-tierish, but unless the Braves took on at least SOME of the contract(or is Boston already doing this?), I dunno about either one.
If we were going to dump Reyes, I'd want to see them dump him for someone like a previously mentioned(a month ago, maybe?) Carlos Quentin or some other player who was at least in AAA.
Or maybe try to swap problem pitchers with Anaheim and try a Reyes for Santana trade.
I don't know if any of my thoughts are plausible, but it seems like we have needs coming up quickly with a bunch of our guys getting old and becoming free agents very soon, and picking up a guy who is probably coming up in 2010 at the earliest and has no track record above A ball seems risky for someone like Reyes.
Don't trade Reyes for a position player.
You are right, there is a shortage of starting
PJ Walters
He's burning his way through the farm system. He'll be 23 on Opening Day next year. I'd like to see him finish 08 strong for Springfield and then start next season in Memphis. Perhaps he can be a spot starter in 08 for the Cardinals or even an injury replacement if need be.
What's impressive is his ability to throw strikes. Coming into tonight, I believe he had a 3:1 SO:BB ratio. Whether or not he is able to fool hitters at the big league level, who knows. However, if he can throw strikes, I think he can be effective and avoid the 'big inning'.

by Hardcore Legend on Aug 26, 2007 11:04 PM EDT reply actions
I don't think there is anything mysterious here
Movement > Velocity
Think for a second about the short list of pithers that had great movement, control, and threw a changeup.
That list would start with Maddux, Glavin, Hoffman, Moyer, and Tudor.
Does he have that kind of control and movement? I don't know, but it would be dumb to write the guy off just because he doesn't throw 95.
We need to get past the obsession with how hard a pticher throws, where he throws it, and which pitch it is. Its this simple.
If a pitch and locationg is getting hammered, its bad. Regardless of what a pitcher is throwing, if its in the zone and the hitters are not doing anything with it, its a good pitch.
I merely meant he is a mystery
What is encouraging is that he appears to be getting stronger with each outing in Springfield.
I agree. I want a pitcher that will fill up the strikezone with 'his pitches' and make hitters take good swings to beat him. I'm tired of watching pitchers put undue stress on themselves by putting extra men on.
My obsession isn't 'gee, that was REALLY fast', it's more that a 95 mph can often times hide a mistake or two during a game.
I'm a Walter's supporter and I've only listened to his last 3 games and followed his stat lines. I'd love to see the kid pitch with my own eyes to make a better judgement of what he may be capable of.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 26, 2007 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
One more thing about Walters
Since his shaky 1st start at Springfield (AA), PJ has thrown up these numbers:
IP ER H 2B HR SO BB ERA WHIP
29.2 7 28 3 3 29 10 2.16 1.30
Last night's game was against that same Arkansas team he made his debut against. They ran out an almost identical lineup and Walters was able to improve.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 27, 2007 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
pitchers that have movement on
Walters is a different kind of pitcher than say Chris Lambert. He survives on commanding his pitches and movement. There's nothing wrong with that; it's just harder to quantify movement than velocity. If we were able to say that player has 80turquads of movement on his changeup but were only able to say his velocity was good, than the prospect community would have been obsessed with movement for years and velocity would have been set aside as the ugly stepchild.
Then perhaps the prospect community
Maybe it's time for a team to take a radical approach and focus more on pitchers who can pitch to location and trust their 'stuff' if it gets hit than guys just flinging 96 mph 4 seamers up there.
Even a guy like Koko Cordero, his velocity is ridiculous. He just has absolutely no command on any of his pitches. Once teams started laying off his slider that never really crosses the plate, he became irratic and very hittable.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 27, 2007 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
The point I was trying to make
A lot of teams believe they can tweak some mechanics or make small changes leading the hard-thrower to develop some modicum of command.
My thought
Downside is Trey Hearne (unfortunately), but the upside is Glavine, Maddux, Wells, Moyer, Rogers, Buehrle (sp?) and plenty of other pitchers pitching right now who survive on not leaving balls over the middle of the plate. No doubt that is hard to do, but if you find a guy who is doing just that in AA (with 1.5 years in pro ball no less), that is an interesting pitcher...
Again, would it be better if there was a direct evaluation like MPH - Heck yes - But you can't discount the results...
Good news on this front
Possible Reyes trade
However watching the series between the Braves this weekend made me realize one thing. The Braves really need a starter for next year. What position do the braves have an established veteran who is blocking a young stud? May the Braves be looking to trade Renteria this offseason for pitching help and then let Escobar be the everyday starter? I think this is a definite possibility. I wouldn't mind at all bringing Renteria back for a couple years to let our young prospects age in the minors. Not for sure who else would be going in a trade but renteria for reyes and a couple other guys is good deal for both I believe. Plus the Cards and Braves have a good trading possibility. I'm not saying that this is going to happen or ever should happen but I see it as a actual possibility.
Renteria should have never left...
Buying High
The problem is that his market is going to be set based upon what he has done this season, which imho is buying high..........
That said, would I trade Reyes straight up for Renteria - Hecks to the yes.
Let me clarify
Would rather see Willis..
Reyes for Willis straight up
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 27, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
What do you
by BluesDrummer85 on Aug 27, 2007 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think either is pitching very good
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 27, 2007 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
for what its worth
Hopefully if we do that Reyes doesn't equal Haren...
Oh, oh.....
He is also extremely popular with the fan base. I'm not so sure they are eager to let him go. They may be ready to let Scott Olson go....would we want the baggage that comes with him? Or maybe getting out of Florida would do him some good? (You all ever read Carl Hiaason?)
I'm for sticking with Reyes for now.....there's been plenty bad there this year, but there has been some good too--I imagine there are some pitching coaches that would love to take a crack at him. My gut says he's gone, and it probably will be for a "fixable" veteran pitcher or someone returning from an injury like Benson who wasn't all that good before the injury.
Mulder=Willis no sale
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 27, 2007 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
72 IP 83H 22BB 5+ ERA?
Seems pretty similar to Reyes to me?
I was actually expecting someone to argue that Willis was > Mulder not the other way around...
Either way, at best they both could pass for #2s but are probably better suited as #3s...IMHO
Dan Haren wasn't traded in 2004
Reyes over the last 2 years has thrown 185 IP. He's got a solid 5.21 ERA over that stretch. When Haren was in his second full year of being a starter, he was throwing sub 4.00 ERAs in the American League. Reyes is getting worse.
by Hardcore Legend on Aug 27, 2007 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions

by 

















