Brendan Ryan - Future Cards SS or another Stubby Clapp/Bo Hart?

by stltrav09 on Jul 9, 2007 11:41 AM EDT Comment 50 comments

Alright to begin with I just want to say that I love this kid. He's a sparkplug... full of heart, energy, and passion for the game. He's had some pretty good success in his short time with the Cards as well.

The question is, should we have hope that this kid could be our future SS someday.. possibly as soon as next season... or is he another Stubby Clapp/Bo Hart who is riding on adrenaline and once his swing gets figured out, pitchers will start attacking his weaknesses?

This is the same guy who is pretty much an average to below average AAA hitter.

Thoughts?

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hmmmmm,

well in regards to ryan I don't think he is going to be anything great but i do see him as an average short stop. No better than eck but really not that much worse either. It is for this reason that I think you bring him up next year and use him in a platoon with miles and kennedy. You do not resign eck. You save the money and use it somehwere else. Where that is I don't know?....eck will cost to much.

2/3rd's of the earth is covered by water, the other third is coverd by Jim Edmonds

by cardsphan04 on Jul 9, 2007 11:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm inclined

to see Ryan as an upgrade over Eck in the field and a downgrade at the plate. Strikes out twice as often as he walks, very little power. Think Aaron Miles last year with more Ks. He's never had a full season in the minors (277 PA at Memphis last year: .266/.314/.348), so he may improve as he gets more ABs, but he probably won't hit much.

The problem for the Cardinals is that, although Ryan would be a good low-cost guy, SS is basically the only position they have available to upgrade in the off-season. And they badly need to score more runs.

by awpierce on Jul 9, 2007 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would agree...

I think he has some upside as a hitter, and I think that Ryan is an above-average major leaguer defensively RIGHT NOW.

I wouldn't be disappointed if we let Miles walk, keep Ryan on the big club, and find a replacement level SS for '08. I don't like the prospect of re-signing Eckstein at this point in his career.

by silent_bob on Jul 9, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

he can definitely play SS at the big league level, the question is whether or not he can hit. He never really has at the minor league level so I'm inclined to see him as somewhere between Eckstein and Bo Hart -- as a utility player who plays in the big leagues for a few years, but not as a starting SS for a contender.

by chuckb on Jul 9, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's been up

for what; a month and a half now? I think it's a bit early to be either canonizing or deriding him.

"It's always about money; anyone who says it's not is lying."- Gene Simmons

by cardsrul on Jul 9, 2007 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it's pretty uncommon

for a prospect to blow his minor league numbers out of the water at the major league level. His track record isn't good in the minors. Brendan Ryan does not have the bat to hold down an everyday SS job. Evaluating him on more than his time in the big leagues isn't an unreasonable task.

If the Cardinals were above average offensively he'd be ok in an Adam Everett lite role. I could see him being worth 20 runs with the glove over a year -- he's quite good defensively. The problem is when you have offensive holes at so many positions (C, RF, 2B) you can't afford a defensive specialist at SS. Ryan is a far better bench choice than Aaron Miles who is at best an average defender and a singles hitter.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 9, 2007 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uncommon but not unheard of

Chris Duncan comes to mind

by Valatan on Jul 9, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

can you name another

because it took everyone well over a year to believe in Duncan. He's the outlier.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 9, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2nd base?

Obviously eck isn't going anywhere right now (barring another serious injury) so why not fix our CHRONIC problem that is second base. Kennedy has some time left on his deal so why not let Ryan pick Kennedy's brain and learn from him so when the time is right....we have a pretty good converted ss and a much cheaper player. His offense will take some time to flourish but let's not forget who he is surrounded by...Pujols, Duncan, Jimmy, even McRae.

Not resigning eck....I'm okay with that. We have a few guys who can hit in the lead off spot.

by theHEATisON on Jul 9, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

cross your fingers

it's a bit early to be too excited, but Jarrett Hoffpauir is making a strong case for consideration for "second baseman of the future". AK is looking more and more like "overpaid defensive specialist/bench player of the future".

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jul 9, 2007 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ryan

i don't know if he is an everyday player, but you guys are selling his minor league stats a little short. he won a batting title in the midwest league in 2004 and also stole 30 bases that year. he has a career minor league average that is over .300.

baseball america has described him as a 4-tool player in the past missing only power. i see him eventually being a do it all utility player that can play every where except catcher and provide a spark with his speed, but if they don't resign eckstein he might get a shot at shortstop for at least a season. he won't hurt you defensively (and is likely an upgrade) and he will put the ball in play and steal some bases.

by fewgoodcards on Jul 9, 2007 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't walk enough

he has struggled in the upper minors. he was 22 in the Midwest league that year, hitting .300 isn't that impressive at age 22.

He stole 14 bases in 2005. He's got speed but the 30 bases seems high to me.

With no discernable power (6 HRs in 1000+ minor league at bats prior to this year) he's going to struggle to maintain his average. He's a nice defensive minded shortstop but I'll be shocked if he turns into more than a bench player.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 9, 2007 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he hasn't had much time....

in the high minors. I think he was hurt most of last year wasn't he. I think he still has some upside with the bat and can learn plate discipline. I think he could potenitally be a decent starting shortstop certainly not great, but a much better value than an aging Eckstein.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 9, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan

Is the ultimate all glove-no bat shortstop. He'll probably hit about .250 with 5 homers each year and bat 8th if he starts.

by KeepOnRolen on Jul 9, 2007 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I am inclined to believe

he isn't more than a backup. As far as giving him the starting SS spot next year, I'd have to agree with awpierce, we need more runs and SS is a place where we might be able to upgrade. On the other hand if it comes to a choice between an over-the-hill-eckstein at $4M/ year or Ryan at $350/ year, I's be inclined to take the latter and save my pennies for an impact signing or trade + signing.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 9, 2007 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FA market

Unless we can aquire a shortstop in a trade Eck is the best available on the FA market this offseason. Others FAs are guys like Royce Clayton or Juan Uribe. Therefore, I think (barring a trade) Ryan has to be the starter next year rather than giving Eckstein more than he is worth.

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 9, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as i like to point out,

the best available shortstop is currently playing third base. in pinstripes.

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 9, 2007 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could make sense

to save money at short in order to make an upgrade elsewhere, like RF. I'd be fine with them skimping on the middle infield if it meant a big corner OF bat.

If you look at his last full season in the minors (2005), split between the FSL and Texas League, Ryan put up OPSs of 765 and 720, which would be right in line with what you could expect from Eckstein, even assuming no decline.

by CardFaninVA on Jul 9, 2007 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eckstein at Age 25

Milb stats:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP DP AVG OBP SLG OPS 119 422 77 104 20 0 1 31 11 8 60 45 20 8 .246 .364 .301 665

Brendan Ryan at Age 25

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP DP AVG OBP SLG OPS 64 256 40 68 8 5 1 13 12 5 17 34 NA NA .266 .315 .348 663

Looking at Eckstein, alot of his walks came from being hit. I mean, good lord, he stepped infront of 20 pitches that season to get on base!

Ecks first season with the big league club, his BB:K numbers flipped (43 BB: 60 K)

Ryan plays very good defense, with above average range. It isn't unreasonable to believe that he can become an above average (or even average) MLB hitter.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 9, 2007 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ryan's wOBA

in Memphis - .322

in the majors - .296

average is ~.340

I don't understand what makes everyone think he's going to take this leap forward on offense when there's no evidence in his track record that he can take walks or hit for power. If he doesn't hit .300 he's going to be a serious drag on the offense.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 9, 2007 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So should the Cardinals not give him the chance

to prove he can hit at this level?

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 9, 2007 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i didn't say that

but to think that he's going to morph into an above average hitter when he's never been one in the past is unrealistic. He's a good defensive replacement but there's no evidence (except for the random 41 ABs in the majors that prove nothing) to show that he's going to hit at the MLB level. 1000+ ABs in the minors point to him peaking out as a utility infielder.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 9, 2007 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We've got utility infielders with sub-standard

defense starting all over the place.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 9, 2007 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We only have 3 players that are not a drag

on the offense.

Duncan, Pujols, Molina.

Everyone else is sucking at the plate.

Out of Eck, Ryan, AK, and AM. Ryan is probably the 2nd best hitter. He is the best fielder and the cheapest so you give him the chance.

Now being the 2nd best hitter in that group doesn't make him a good hitter. Just better than the other options.

Run are runs, I don't care if he makes them with hits or saves them wite the glove as long as he is better than the other choices.

by DriverZn on Jul 9, 2007 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amen

"The right-hander is throwing up in the bullpen." -Mike Shannon

by DJ87 on Jul 9, 2007 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes if our options are limited to those 4 players

I agree. But let's not fool ourselves into think that Ryan is going to be anything more than replacement level with the bat.

Future Redbirds

by azruavatar on Jul 9, 2007 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree with that

but i think the fact that ryan has preliminarily, at least, shown he can at least do that (be replacement level with the bat) means that eckstein isn't worth re-signing.

put the $4m somewhere else.

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 9, 2007 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

which also doesn't mean

that ryan ought to be the starting ss. if they can find something else better, either through trade or fa, by all means. but eck doesn't need to be on the team next year, either on the bench (ryan can do just as well) or in the lineup.

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 9, 2007 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Why not offer Eck a one year 2 million extention. If he takes it fine. We buy some time. If not. Thank you every much bye bye. Either way Ryan should get a invite to major league camp with a shot at middle infielder back up. He and I gues Miles would be competing for that job. So he needs to get some time at 2b.

Kennedy we are stuck with I don't see anyone taking him off our hands. So he better get his act together next year.

by nybirdfan on Jul 9, 2007 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm having my doubts that Eckstein should

be extended. He has spent too much time on the DL, and this year it's a back problem and back problems tend to be chronic conditions. I fear it will only get worse as he ages. We really need to look for a new shortstop...

by jillsinmo on Jul 9, 2007 10:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The lesson of Adam Kennedy

... is don't waste free agent dollars on a guy who will be marginally better than replacement level at-best. In hindsight, it clearly would have been better to try to use those dollars ($10 mil?) to land an impact free agent and give second base to Aaron Miles or Brendan Ryan.

So I think whether or not Ryan is a starter next season depends on whether or not we can add an impact FA middle infielder. If not, it makes more sense to start a replacement-level player like Ryan (which is really all he's likely to be) than to shell out even a few million bucks and lock ourselves into a multi-year contract with a marginal veteran.

by bgodar on Jul 9, 2007 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps one of the biggest mistakes of the

LaDuncetty regime was letting Grudz go......2nd base has been a black hole ever since.

by jillsinmo on Jul 10, 2007 8:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's been ahuge complaint of mine

But it's not like they didn't make him an offer. Just shows the makeup of players these days when they take an extra year and another million to play for a perennial loser when they could still be millionaires and play for a winning team*. I'll never understand that. Ever. I'm looking at you too Renteria.

*2007 excluded

by paCardsFan on Jul 10, 2007 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

renteria? really?

since the cards, he's played for the red sox, who had just won the world series and prior to that had been in the playoffs for several years, and the braves. not sure i'd call that taking more money to "play for a perennial loser."

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 10, 2007 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

true

I guess I didn't mean the loser part on him. I just remember being frustrated that he would sign elsewhere despite being the captain and already being offered $$. Anyway..

by paCardsFan on Jul 10, 2007 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its a bummer...

...that were stuck with Adam Kennedy. That really lessens our chances at providing offensive help at middle infield. If no power is available, I'd REALLY like to see some speed. We need a sparkplug at the top of the lineup.

I also agree Grudz was a mistake to let go. Second base has always been a black hole and he filled it nicely.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the only free agent shortstops are Vizquel, Eckstein, Uribe, and Izturis. None of these provide what we need.

Ryan might be a fix for after the trade deadline and maybe next year while we re think things, but I don't see him being a consistent starting shortstop. If he's being compared to a Eckstein type, no thanks. Maybe give Ryan a chance next year and see if Greene can develop. If not, the shortstop free agent class is bound to be better next year.

What about a trade of an extra outfielder for a good shortstop prospect, and then spending the saved money on Eck on a big name free agent outfielder with a bat?

Give Jose a chance!

by warpig2003 on Jul 10, 2007 9:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

we don't have an extra outfielder

or, at least not one that could bring a "good shortstop prospect." unless you're talking rasmus or maybe (maybe) ankiel.

the rest of what you say makes sense - namely, start ryan at ss in lieu of a better alternative, and spend the money getting a power bat in the OF.

how do we feel about andruw jones/torii hunter in cf, and moving edmonds to right?

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 10, 2007 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Extra outfield

In my opinion, I think we have an outfielder to move IF (and only if) we're willing to sign a big name.

Next year:
Big Name, Duncan, Ankiel, Edmonds, Taguchi, Ludwick, Spiezio

I think Ludwick and Spiezio are capable 4th outfielders, and we also have So for probably another year or two. That gives us Duncan and Ankiel to trade. Duncan would go for some good stuff from the American League. Good DH prospect. You could probably pry some good talent for Ankiel if they had a surplus at short.

Edmonds to the corner scares me. The way he ranges and plays in center wonders if he could handle to corners and foul lines. Also, can Colby play other spots? If hes a definete center fielder, I say we leave it for him and let Edmonds teach the kid.

If the kid can play other fields, I'm all for Jones or Hunter in center. If we could do that I wouldnt mind Big Name in center, Duncan in left, and Ankiel in right until Colby gets up here. I think I'd also have to quietly have to ask Edmonds to retire, or have find some sort of role for him.

Give Jose a chance!

by warpig2003 on Jul 10, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

problem is

if you trade duncan/ankiel (certainly duncan), you're really subtracting power, not adding it.

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 10, 2007 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is why I say IF

Thats why I said the only way we trade one of them is if we get a quality outfield via free agency. Without a big name free agent, we really don't have anyone to trade outside Ludwick and Juan in the outfield.

As for free agent outfielders, below there is a list thanks to mlbtraderumors.com. Theres some good talent in center, but other than that it is a pretty empty free agent class. Unless one of the couple decent corners would sign for cheap because of years (cough Dye cough) I think were better off converting some people to the corners. Looks like we have a decent shot at a new center fielder in free agency. If we are able to do this, we have a couple extra men out there.

Left: Eric Byrnes, Luis Gonzalez, Barry Bonds, Brad Wilkerson, Adam Dunn ($13MM club option for '08; becomes free agent after season if traded), Geoff Jenkins ($9MM club option for '08)

Center: Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, Eric Byrnes, Corey Patterson, Milton Bradley, Aaron Rowand, Mike Cameron, Kenny Lofton

Right: Jermaine Dye, Ichiro Suzuki, Milton Bradley, Trot Nixon, Eric Hinske, Bobby Abreu ($16MM club option for '08), Geoff Jenkins ($9MM club option for '08), Jose Guillen ($9MM club option for '08), Shawn Green ($10MM club option for '08)

Give Jose a chance!

by warpig2003 on Jul 10, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fuzzy math

i certainly agree there are more good FA outfielders in the 2008 class than there are good FA shortstops (read: none, unless you're counting arod).

the point, though, is that the cards need to add (at least) one really good, middle-of-the-lineup hitter to make this offense decent again. so my question is, why would you do what you're suggesting, which is:

+1 good OF (FA)
-1 good (at least from all appearances) OF (duncan/ankiel)
+1 ss prospect

when, instead, you could just do this:

+1 good OF (FA)
keep brendan ryan and/or sign, e.g., kaz matsui, per below

i'm not sure the math works out in the cards' favor in your example - obviously, it would depend on what prospect they could get back. but i'm almost certain my proposal leaves them better off, because they don't have to give up anything. unless the ss prospect was a better hitter in 2008 than duncan was, i'm not sure it works out.

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 10, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2008 lineup

Lots of good ideas and discussion here. I, too, am intrigued by Ryan's play so far. IF, and I agree that's a big if, he could sustain something approaching his performance at the plate so far, I'd be all in favor of penciling him in next year and not re-signing Eck.

However, as others have pointed out, we need another bat and if you look at the very real potential of having Duncan, Jimmy, Juan, Ludwick, and Ankiel all with the team next year, there's not much room in the outfield for a new power bat. If we are planning on keeping CF open for Rasmus in '09, then someone like Hunter makes little sense. The SS free agent list doesn't have any real attractive names, how about the OF list?

by ArkansasTravs on Jul 10, 2007 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not real sure???

I like the guy, and I'm trying not to let that effect my judgement. I'd say he could be more then Bo Hart (who I also liked) based on his speed, but I don't think that is enough to make him a starter. Also the last secound basemen we had I liked was Vina, but then things happen and we don't say his name in cardinals country anymore.

Save the Kipper don't make him go back out there.

by gibbyfan on Jul 10, 2007 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What about

Kaz Matsui? He's having a decent year in CO and sounds like he wants out as a FA. He came over as a SS, maybe he could be worth $4M/year x 3 years? Is this AK all over again?

by awpierce on Jul 10, 2007 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

careful

his home/road splits are ridiculous. outside of coors his ops is like .715. (that said, a .700+ ops with decent defense would be quite welcome out of the middle infield these days).
contract year. i think i read somewhere, in fact, that he specifically said he liked signing a 1-year contract because it kept him motivated. (so maybe try signing him to a 1-year deal? or a 1-year deal with vesting option?)

i don't hate the idea, just have to be careful knowing what you're probably going to get (read: not the coors numbers).

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 10, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My impression

was that he wanted a one-year deal THIS year, Jeff Weaver-style. Now that he is having a solid year, he'll probably be looking to lock in a longer-term deal.

You're right - .721 away OPS. Not great, but he's at least someone to look at in this year's weak FA class.

by awpierce on Jul 10, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What they should do....

is take whatever type package they were going to offer for Buehrle and use it to nab Miguel Tejada. Fits perfectly in our lineup and O's fans seem to be ready to watch him leave.

I would actually think it should take less to acquire him than Buehrle.

by KoryWiu14 on Jul 11, 2007 1:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs