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Around SBN: FSU To Big 12 'Inevitable,' According To Report

Carp's impact on the 2nd half

There's reason to be pessimistic right now - we're 8.5 games out in the division, but there's also reason for some optimism - namely, Carpenter's expected return after the break.  So I thought I'd hash out some crude numbers to see what impact Carpenter might have on that kind of deficit.

The bad news is that, since 1901, only 10 teams have overcome a gap of more than 8 games at the break.  The challenge is more substantial when there is more than one team to pass, as there is for the Cards.

I decided to look at Carp's 2nd half of '06, as most peripherals suggest that was when the team started playing at the level it is now.  Carpenter went 8-4 during that stretch, with the team going 9-6 in games he started.  Carp's Win Probability Added was also positive in 9 of his 15 starts, suggesting that 9-6 team record had more to do with Carp than with luck.

Two big assumptions for the sake of comparison: assume Carp starts 15 games after the ASB and those starts would have gone to Wellemeyer.  

The team results in Wellemeyer's starts have been largely influenced by luck (or great hitting), with the team going 6-1.  But Wellemeyer's only added positive Win Probability in three of those starts.  Extrapolated to 15 starts, we might expect that to look like a team record of 6-9.

That suggests getting Carpenter back into the rotation for the second half should add in the neighborhood of 3-4 wins for the team.

I freely admit these are crude calculations, small sample sizes, etc.  But I think they give a snapshot of what a 2nd half might look like with a healthy (knock on wood) Carpenter in and an ineffective Wellemeyer out.

Carpenter may certainly get us back in the race, but it's highly unlikely he alone can get us into first place.  We probably need at least one more dramatic improvement if we're to become the 11th team in modern history to close an 8+ game gap.

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But...
...what about the impact of a healthy Eckstein, Edmonds (doubtful, I know...but one can hope), Mulder (mid August...mayeb?!? I know, doubtful again)...Add Percival, a full-half w/ Molina, Pujols and Rolen are just bound to be better.....There are many reasons to be optimistic in addition to Carp's return.    

One can hope that God can intervene to allow the Cardinals to play at a 10 games over .500 clip in th second half - leading to 86 wins. And hope (however desperate) of a possible division win (assuming a Brew-crew collapse)

Hope...that's all we have :-)

by cardsfaninmass on Jul 5, 2007 10:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Hope, indeed
As I mentioned, we need one more dramatic improvement (in addition to Carp) to make this a possibility, and I think you've outlined several potential ones.  I hope Eckstein and Edmonds make an impact, I hope Rolen rebounds, I hope the Pacific Ocean is as blue as it has been in my dreams.  I hope.

by bgodar on Jul 5, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, please check to see how many of those
teams came back during the 3 division era.  
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 5, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions  

During the Three Division Era...
Last year's Twins team is the only team to come back from a deficit of more than 8 games and win their division.

I also caught a mistake in my math - they make the 11th team to achieve such a feat since 1901.  So on average, this type of comeback has actually been less-likely in the divisional era than before.

Some small part of that may result from the Wild Card, in that a team who can lock up the WC doesn't need to win their division.  Of course, I don't think any of us expect the Wild Card to come out of the NL Central this year.

And any way you slice it, coming back from more than 8 down in the middle of July is a tall order.  Not impossible, but historically very difficult.

by bgodar on Jul 5, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

You know, I'm starting to worry that Eckstein is
 going to be healthy for long stretch ever again.  He missed a lot of time last year and suffered a prolonged slump.  He also suffered a long slump this year, and has been on the disabled list more than once.  Back problems often turn into chronic conditions.......I really think I'm not going to count on him too much this season or the forseeable future...I almost expect to see Edmonds back before Eckstein.  Mulder is not even close to going into a game.  I doubt we'll see him this year....

by jillsinmo on Jul 5, 2007 12:29 PM EDT reply actions  

over/under
on the number of productive second halves the cards get from mulder, edmonds, eckstein: 0.5.
I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 5, 2007 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think we'll see Mulder...
....I just don't think he'll be any good yet!!!!

by cardsfaninmass on Jul 5, 2007 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

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