Carp's impact on the 2nd half

There's reason to be pessimistic right now - we're 8.5 games out in the division, but there's also reason for some optimism - namely, Carpenter's expected return after the break.  So I thought I'd hash out some crude numbers to see what impact Carpenter might have on that kind of deficit.

The bad news is that, since 1901, only 10 teams have overcome a gap of more than 8 games at the break.  The challenge is more substantial when there is more than one team to pass, as there is for the Cards.

I decided to look at Carp's 2nd half of '06, as most peripherals suggest that was when the team started playing at the level it is now.  Carpenter went 8-4 during that stretch, with the team going 9-6 in games he started.  Carp's Win Probability Added was also positive in 9 of his 15 starts, suggesting that 9-6 team record had more to do with Carp than with luck.

Two big assumptions for the sake of comparison: assume Carp starts 15 games after the ASB and those starts would have gone to Wellemeyer.  

The team results in Wellemeyer's starts have been largely influenced by luck (or great hitting), with the team going 6-1.  But Wellemeyer's only added positive Win Probability in three of those starts.  Extrapolated to 15 starts, we might expect that to look like a team record of 6-9.

That suggests getting Carpenter back into the rotation for the second half should add in the neighborhood of 3-4 wins for the team.

I freely admit these are crude calculations, small sample sizes, etc.  But I think they give a snapshot of what a 2nd half might look like with a healthy (knock on wood) Carpenter in and an ineffective Wellemeyer out.

Carpenter may certainly get us back in the race, but it's highly unlikely he alone can get us into first place.  We probably need at least one more dramatic improvement if we're to become the 11th team in modern history to close an 8+ game gap.