Surging Redbirds
Don't look now, but since losing for the third-straight game on May 29 and dropping to 20-29 on the year, these Cardinals are 19-14 and have played at a .576% clip since May 30. To put that in context, a .576% clip over 162 games would translate into 93 wins.
If STL can continue to play at that pace for its final 80 games - not a huge stretch considering that even though the competition might get tougher, we will hopefully have a few big pieces returning very soon - it would mean going 46-34 over the rest of the season and ending at 85-77. This seems extremely optimistic to me, but they've somehow been pulling out wins through all the injuries and horrific starting pitching.
Let's just say it does happen, the Brewers would have to go 37-40 to finish the year in order for STL to catch them. Again, that sounds like a stretch, except that they've gone 24-27 over their last 51 for a .471 clip. If that would continue over the rest of the year, the Brewers close the year with a 36-41 record and end up at 84-78.
I realize I'm pulling out some random stretches of games but stretches of 33 and 51 games are more than just random hot or cold spells in my opinion.
While STL might be getting healthy, MIL just lost Bill Hall for in indefinite amount of time, creating a large void in CF and its highly unlikely that the first half contributions of Hardy, Hart and Braun will continue.
I've been leaning towards the sell sell sell side of the fence, but I'm starting to think maybe there's a chance.
Of course then there are the Cubbies who after starting 22-31 have gone 21-10 over the last several weeks...
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call me crazy
by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 5, 2007 11:17 PM EDT reply actions
I don't think 85-77 is crazy optimistic for
by BTown Birds fan on Jul 5, 2007 11:25 PM EDT reply actions
The Brewers won't win this division
If their percentages hold up (and they won't at home) they are on pace for about 91 wins.
The only thing keeping that team from being in a dogfight for the NL Central right now is their ridiculous 30-13 home record. A .698 winning percentage at home? What are they doing, stealing signs? Turning on the air conditioning when the opposing team is batting?
They'll get better on the road and even out at home. I'd say 91 wins is the 'high ceiling' for them right now.
Last I checked, the Crew were on a 95 win pace.
where do you get 95?
they were on an 83 win pace as late as 13 June, before winning 13 out of 16 to finish the month; obviously we won't catch them if they keep up that level of play, but I'd say it's likely that they will revert (as the last week in PIT showed).

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