Surging Redbirds

by TheFranchise9 on Jul 5, 2007 10:29 PM EDT

Don't look now, but since losing for the third-straight game on May 29 and dropping to 20-29 on the year, these Cardinals are 19-14 and have played at a .576% clip since May 30. To put that in context, a .576% clip over 162 games would translate into 93 wins.

If STL can continue to play at that pace for its final 80 games - not a huge stretch considering that even though the competition might get tougher, we will hopefully have a few big pieces returning very soon - it would mean going 46-34 over the rest of the season and ending at 85-77. This seems extremely optimistic to me, but they've somehow been pulling out wins through all the injuries and horrific starting pitching.

Let's just say it does happen, the Brewers would have to go 37-40 to finish the year in order for STL to catch them. Again, that sounds like a stretch, except that they've gone 24-27 over their last 51 for a .471 clip. If that would continue over the rest of the year, the Brewers close the year with a 36-41 record and end up at 84-78.

I realize I'm pulling out some random stretches of games but stretches of 33 and 51 games are more than just random hot or cold spells in my opinion.

While STL might be getting healthy, MIL just lost Bill Hall for in indefinite amount of time, creating a large void in CF and its highly unlikely that the first half contributions of Hardy, Hart and Braun will continue.

I've been leaning towards the sell sell sell side of the fence, but I'm starting to think maybe there's a chance.

Of course then there are the Cubbies who after starting 22-31 have gone 21-10 over the last several weeks...

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call me crazy

but i sense some really fun, entertaining, and meaningful series with cubs in the second half.

by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 5, 2007 11:17 PM EDT reply actions

the cubs*

by stlcardinalsfang on Jul 5, 2007 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think 85-77 is crazy optimistic for

the Cards, but I do think it's very optimistic to think 85 wins will earn a spot in the playoffs again. Either way, I certainly enjoyed this series - the second game was a stinker, but the other three were pretty entertaining (and not just because we won...).

by BTown Birds fan on Jul 5, 2007 11:25 PM EDT reply actions

The Brewers won't win this division

with a .429 winning percentage on the road.

If their percentages hold up (and they won't at home) they are on pace for about 91 wins.

The only thing keeping that team from being in a dogfight for the NL Central right now is their ridiculous 30-13 home record. A .698 winning percentage at home? What are they doing, stealing signs? Turning on the air conditioning when the opposing team is batting?

They'll get better on the road and even out at home. I'd say 91 wins is the 'high ceiling' for them right now.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 6, 2007 1:17 AM EDT reply actions

Last I checked, the Crew were on a 95 win pace.

I don't really expect them to keep that up, even in the NL central, but I do think they have a very good club. In this division I could see them winning close to 100 games. However I'll guess they will win 93. The Cardinals would need to play .666 ball the rest of the way to beat them. I don't think that will happen.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 6, 2007 3:27 AM EDT reply actions

where do you get 95?

They are on a 91-win pace right now, using pythagorean win expectancy + actual record. BP's playoff odds reports shows them averaging 92 (pecota adjusted) or 91.2 wins (non-adjusted); ELO adjusted has them at 88.8. Even if you just take the current record and extrapolate it you only get (.565*162) 91.5 wins...

they were on an 83 win pace as late as 13 June, before winning 13 out of 16 to finish the month; obviously we won't catch them if they keep up that level of play, but I'd say it's likely that they will revert (as the last week in PIT showed).

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jul 6, 2007 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions

You are right.

I am unsure what was wrong with my math. I still think 90 wins is on the low end of what they'll do however.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 9, 2007 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

optimistic

I'm a self-admitted optimist, but I still say the Cards have a shot if they can get healthy. By that I mean Carp (likely) and Edmonds (not sure). Carp will stabilize the rotation, and some of the others seem to be turning it on (notably, Wainwright). The bullpen has been solid except for a short stretch when they were way overworked. The last question is the offense. Obviously it stunk in April and into May, and it's still been a little inconsistent lately, but if Edmonds can come back, or Scotty can approach his career norms, we're a force to be reckoned with.

by john vb on Jul 6, 2007 11:57 AM EDT reply actions