Kip Wells, somehow, won't go quietly into the night.
Well, that was a disaster. As was stated in the game thread, Wellemeyer was hardly helped out by the errors in the field there, but then again, errors really don't matter when you allow 3 HR in three innings pitched. The whole game seemed like the team had conceded defeat sometime around the bottom of the second. Players seemed lost at the plate with RISP, Encarnación had that horrible, horrible dropped ball in the first, and perhaps most inexplicably, Tony let Wellemeyer bat for himself to lead off the bottom of the third, but started the fourth inning with Wells on the mound, despite a six run deficit.
Meanwhile, Kip Wells in the bullpen continues to not take s*it from anyone. People might be inclined to attribute his success to an attack on the strike zone. There might be some truth to that. I went back and did some research into Kip Wells' starts that lasted five innings or more, and I discovered that even his pattern for success when throwing strikes is remarkably inconsistent. This is most exemplified in this game and his next game, where he went, in both outings, 6+ innings, throwing 103 pitches, 65 of them for strikes. He also walked one batter in each game, while striking out four in the first, and three in the second. In the first game, this also included him allowing 1 ER. In the second game, however, he imploded for five ER.
This isn't to say that Kip getting strikes isn't a necessary condition of his success: in games where he's thrown only about half of his pitches for strikes, (i.e., check out his 14 June start)he has invariably gotten shelled, but there has to be some hidden indicator of where things come unglued. I am inclined to think that the secret lies in his stuff. When his breaking ball is breaking like it was last night,a nd his sinker is sinking, and he can throw a strike when he wants to with his fastball, it forces hitters to chase junk in the dirt. This, in turn, makes all of his pitches better, and keeps hitters stuck in pitchers' counts. Anyway, it certainly seemed to me as if Wells' stuff was better last night than it has been, or at least, more convincingly located when it was out of the zone.
Anyway, last night makes things seem to me as if Wellemeyer is practically volunteering to lose his rotation spot to Carp. Wells is at least making the case that he's going to get to stick with the big club as soon as the million guys on the DL come back.
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19 comments
Comments
At some point
by cardsgirl95 on Jul 4, 2007 10:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and that ER
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
by vince eating tarp on Jul 4, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wells' stats
G GS IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA Pit Str BA OBP SLG OPS
+--+--+----+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
4 1 14 10 2 2 4 13 0 1.29 225 142 .196 .268 .314 .582
by john vb on Jul 4, 2007 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd imagine Tony is going to give him
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wells's demeanor
He seems much different pitching in the middle of a blowout game than he does when it's 1-1 in the 2nd inning and he's the starter...
As noted previously, his ball has so much movement that when he just throws it towards the strike zone, and then mixes in that nice breaking ball, much better things tend to happen than when he starts to nibble. Wells's natural movement and his less-than-stellar command make him a terrible nibbler.
He looked really aggressive last night---every hitter seemed to have two strikes on them quickly---and that is how he needs to be to succeed.
by salvomania on Jul 4, 2007 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It seems
I have been really impressed w/ Wells' stuff. It's much better than I thought before the season started. But he just has those times when he falls apart. Maybe pitching in relief helps b/c he doesn't have 4 days to think about his next assignment. His arsenal, however, is clearly better than Wellemeyer's and he's looked very good of late.
Hope everyone (and the Cards) have a great 4th! It's raining like hell here but it should stop for me to get off the couch after the Cards win tonight and go look at some fireworks! Happy 4th to all!
by chuckb on Jul 4, 2007 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes
by cardsgirl95 on Jul 4, 2007 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Streak Continues
Albert has gone 18 games without a HR 3 times before in his career:
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP GDP BA OBP SLG OPS
4/25-5/15/02
18 66 10 18 5 0 0 4 11 0 8 1 2 .273 .385 .348 .733
9/9-9/28/05
18 58 8 14 4 0 0 4 12 2 6 0 3 .241 .371 .310 .681
6/15-7/3/07
17 54 8 20 4 0 0 7 20 4 8 1 2 .370 .526 .444 .970
The game to BREAK the streak have gone as follows:
5/17/02 2 for 4 1 HR 1 RBI
9/29/05 2 for 4 1 HR 5 RBI
Pujols has had some other streaks of 15, 14 and 11 games but this one is moving into the higher territory. He's clearly still seeing the ball well. He's just lost the 'lift' to his ball. Last night, in the later innings, Pujols slipped going into 3rd base and jammed his back pretty good. He laughed about it as I'm sure he was embarrassed. It was a 'slip on wet floor' moment. As Hrbosky pointed out, in his following AB, Albert was more upright...a stance more reminiscent of 2004.
I'd imagine his power outage is less to do with a 'slump' and more to do with injury. The Spiezio throw late in the game agains the Angels on Sunday still stands out in my mind.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Should say 3rd longest
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks HC for the work.....
Thankfully the ribs aand brisket will be ready in about an hour giving all of us time to eat and fully digest before the Birds making us sick to our stomachs later.
by Ignatius J Reilly on Jul 4, 2007 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I remember that 2005 Game
It's like he saves them up for when he needs them the most.
(Cla Meradith anyone?)
BTW-- That game took place on the 30th, not the 29th IIRC
by cloistermaximus on Jul 4, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
THT has an article up about unlucky pitchers
LOB
#1 Kip Wells
Luckiest BABIP?
# 2 Dan Haren
# 3 Rich Hill
# 4 Jason Marquis
# 14 Ted Lilly
Unlucky LD%
# 5 Braden Looper
Lucky LD%
# 10 Dan Haren
# 16 Adam Wainwright
Unlucky HR per FlyBall
#2 Mike Maroth
#8 Kip Wells
Dan Haren shows up on a ton of these 'lucky' lists. Of course, if you are a good pitcher, you are going to get 'help' statistically as far as minimizing damage. However, it atleast shows he isn't the greatest living pitcher he seems to be.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/luck-leaders
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 1:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He's been lucky
by chuckb on Jul 4, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
when both
by truemun12 on Jul 4, 2007 1:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oscarmeyer is going to be DFA'd i'm sure...
Any updates on that lefty we are paying 6 million dollars for this year so he can ride the pine?
by TNFan32 on Jul 4, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still
by cardsgirl95 on Jul 4, 2007 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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