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Kip Wells, somehow, won't go quietly into the night.

Well, that was a disaster.  As was stated in the game thread, Wellemeyer was hardly helped out by the errors in the field there,  but then again, errors really don't matter when you allow 3 HR in three innings pitched.  The whole game seemed like the team had conceded defeat sometime around the bottom of the second.  Players seemed lost at the plate with RISP, Encarnación had that horrible, horrible dropped ball in the first, and perhaps most inexplicably, Tony let Wellemeyer bat for himself to lead off the bottom of the third, but started the fourth inning with Wells on the mound, despite a six run deficit.

Meanwhile, Kip Wells in the bullpen continues to not take s*it from anyone.  People might be inclined to attribute his success to an attack on the strike zone.  There might be some truth to that.  I went back and did some research into Kip Wells' starts that lasted five innings or more, and I discovered that even his pattern for success when throwing strikes is remarkably inconsistent.  This is most exemplified in this game and his next game, where he went, in both outings, 6+ innings, throwing 103 pitches, 65 of them for strikes.  He also walked one batter in each game, while striking out four in the first, and three in the second.  In the first game, this also included him allowing 1 ER.  In the second game, however, he imploded for five ER.

This isn't to say that Kip getting strikes isn't a necessary condition of his success:  in games where he's thrown only about half of his pitches for strikes, (i.e., check out his 14 June start)he has invariably gotten shelled, but there has to be some hidden indicator of where things come unglued.  I am inclined to think that the secret lies in his stuff.  When his breaking ball is breaking like it was last night,a nd his sinker is sinking, and he can throw a strike when he wants to with his fastball, it forces hitters to chase junk in the dirt.  This, in turn, makes all of his pitches better, and keeps hitters stuck in pitchers' counts.  Anyway, it certainly seemed to me as if Wells' stuff was better last night than it has been, or at least, more convincingly located when it was out of the zone.

Anyway, last night makes things seem to me as if Wellemeyer is practically volunteering to lose his rotation spot to Carp.  Wells is at least making the case that he's going to get to stick with the big club as soon as the million guys on the DL come back.

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At some point
in the discussions about Wells, someone made the observation that he wasn't hitting the spots where the catcher set up.  Last night, it appeared that he was consistently throwing the ball where Yadi wanted it.  Also, his presence on the mound was markedly different.  Even when runners got on in his final two innings of work, there was none of the brow wiping and pulling his cap over his eyes that we have seen in the past.  Really, he looked like he was ticked off to be dealing with someone else's mess.  Maybe his teammates just need to mess with his locker or trip him in the clubhouse and get him irritated before every start and he could pitch like that.  I would take one ER on four hits over five innings (with 5 strikeouts and 7 groundball outs) every five days, thank you very much.  

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 4, 2007 10:53 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, and that ER
was a bloop double to Juan and then a single up the middle.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yup
I think it is less about his stuff from start to start, it's just that he crumbled in the past when the pressure was turned up.  When you try not to screw things up is when your stuff straightens out and you try to aim the ball at the catchers mitt thereby missing it by two feet.  I am sure that is why LaRussa put him in the bullpen, the man knows a thing or two about psychology.  
"The good Lord was good to me. He gave me a strong body, a good right arm, and a weak mind." -Dizzy Dean

by vince eating tarp on Jul 4, 2007 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wells' stats
Since June 20th:


  G GS  IP   H   R   ER  BB  SO HR   ERA   Pit  Str   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  
+--+--+----+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+
  4  1  14   10   2   2   4  13  0   1.29  225  142  .196  .268  .314  .582

by john vb on Jul 4, 2007 11:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd imagine Tony is going to give him
a look at starting again, depending on how he does in his next bullpen assignment.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wells's demeanor
on the mound last night was of someone who didn't give a crap---and I mean that in a good way. He was just throwing, getting the ball back, and throwing. When a close call didn't go his way, or a batter fouled off a tough two-strike pitch, he just got the ball back, and threw.

He seems much different pitching in the middle of a blowout game than he does when it's 1-1 in the 2nd inning and he's the starter...

As noted previously, his ball has so much movement that when he just throws it towards the strike zone, and then mixes in that nice breaking ball, much better things tend to happen than when he starts to nibble. Wells's natural movement and his less-than-stellar command make him a terrible nibbler.

He looked really aggressive last night---every hitter seemed to have two strikes on them quickly---and that is how he needs to be to succeed.

by salvomania on Jul 4, 2007 11:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Uhh
I don't think he was ever in a game that was only 1-1 by the 2nd inning.
Pujols currently < Career godliness.

by joker24 on Jul 4, 2007 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It seems
as though whoever Tony runs out there to start in that spot is going to be the wrong guy, doesn't it?  If he chooses Wells next time, he'll implode.  If he'd have left Reyes on the rotster, he'd implode.  

I have been really impressed w/ Wells' stuff.  It's much better than I thought before the season started.  But he just has those times when he falls apart.  Maybe pitching in relief helps b/c he doesn't have 4 days to think about his next assignment.  His arsenal, however, is clearly better than Wellemeyer's and he's looked very good of late.

Hope everyone (and the Cards) have a great 4th!  It's raining like hell here but it should stop for me to get off the couch after the Cards win tonight and go look at some fireworks!  Happy 4th to all!

by chuckb on Jul 4, 2007 11:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes
Happy Fourth of July to everyone!  Here's to the Cardinals keeping their 7/04 mojo going and getting a win tonight.  According to Goold at the P-D, the Birds haven't lost on the Fourth since '99 (and that was against the D-backs at Busch II - yikes).

by cardsgirl95 on Jul 4, 2007 11:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Streak Continues
We are now up to 17 games in the Pujols homerless streak.  This is the 2nd longest (or 4th longest if you will) of his career.

Albert has gone 18 games without a HR 3 times before in his career:


       G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  IBB SO  HBP  GDP   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
4/25-5/15/02
      18  66  10  18  5  0  0   4  11   0   8   1    2   .273  .385  .348  .733
9/9-9/28/05
      18  58   8  14  4  0  0   4  12   2   6   0    3   .241  .371  .310  .681
6/15-7/3/07
      17  54   8  20  4  0  0   7  20   4   8   1    2   .370  .526  .444  .970

The game to BREAK the streak have gone as follows:

5/17/02 2 for 4 1 HR 1 RBI
9/29/05 2 for 4 1 HR 5 RBI

Pujols has had some other streaks of 15, 14 and 11 games but this one is moving into the higher territory.  He's clearly still seeing the ball well. He's just lost the 'lift' to his ball.  Last night, in the later innings, Pujols slipped going into 3rd base and jammed his back pretty good.  He laughed about it as I'm sure he was embarrassed.  It was a 'slip on wet floor' moment.  As Hrbosky pointed out, in his following AB, Albert was more upright...a stance more reminiscent of 2004.

I'd imagine his power outage is less to do with a 'slump' and more to do with injury.  The Spiezio throw late in the game agains the Angels on Sunday still stands out in my mind.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 11:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks HC for the work.....
...I mentioned last night that AP's ISO was below .100 and it looks like this is consistent with the other two streaks (.075, .069 and now .074). The good news is that his BA and OPS indicate the power outage may be more due to the pitches he is seeing as opposed to his being in a slump.

Thankfully the ribs aand brisket will be ready in about an hour giving all of us time to eat and fully digest before the Birds making us sick to our stomachs later.

by Ignatius J Reilly on Jul 4, 2007 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I remember that 2005 Game
Becuase Pujols was sitting on like 39 homeruns, and every day you would hope he could get over that magical hump and hit 40, but he just couldn't seem to do it.  Finaly on the 29th, The cards were losing and the bases were juiced.  Pujols hits number 40 on  a grand slam.

It's like he saves them up for when he needs them the most.

(Cla Meradith anyone?)

BTW-- That game took place on the 30th, not the 29th IIRC

by cloistermaximus on Jul 4, 2007 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

THT has an article up about unlucky pitchers
The unluckiest pitcher in baseball?

LOB
#1 Kip Wells

Luckiest BABIP?
# 2 Dan Haren
# 3 Rich Hill
# 4 Jason Marquis
# 14 Ted Lilly

Unlucky LD%
# 5 Braden Looper

Lucky LD%
# 10 Dan Haren
# 16 Adam Wainwright

Unlucky HR per FlyBall
#2 Mike Maroth
#8 Kip Wells

Dan Haren shows up on a ton of these 'lucky' lists.  Of course, if you are a good pitcher, you are going to get 'help' statistically as far as minimizing damage.  However, it atleast shows he isn't the greatest living pitcher he seems to be.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/luck-leaders

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 4, 2007 1:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's been lucky
and very good this year.  He should tail off in the 2nd half, I expect, but he's a very good pitcher.

by chuckb on Jul 4, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

when both
johnson and carpenter come back from the dl who goes? i figure johnson would replace cate, but who gets removed for carpenter?

by truemun12 on Jul 4, 2007 1:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oscarmeyer is going to be DFA'd i'm sure...
when Carp comes back...

Any updates on that lefty we are paying 6 million dollars for this year so he can ride the pine?

by TNFan32 on Jul 4, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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