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As The Rotation Turns

Morning, everyone. My name is Solanus and I will be your substitute blogger for today. (As Mr. Borowsky is enjoying a well-earned break this week, I will be one of a few humble posters trying not to diminsh the good name Larry has built up so far.) My original plan was to show you kids a bootleg copy of Shrek 3 and call it a day, but apparently that goes against some sort of school policy. Rules suck!

Instead, I'm going to talk about our starting rotation and how Win Probability Added (WPA) sees them. If you've never been out to Fangraphs or, even better for Cards fans, erik's affiliated blog Gas House Graphs, take a look and learn a different way to view a baseball game. Where every out and hit are not measured the same. Where blowout homers and 3-run saves get the (lack of) credit they deserve. Where you can truly understand how much Pujols got jobbed by Ryan Howard last year. (Actually, David Ortiz got it much worse.)

Anyway, looking at the starts for each member of the rotation and the WPA value for each appearance, you can start to see a correlation between a pitcher's performance and how much blame/credit they should receive for a loss/win. Take Adam Wainwright, for instance:

Date Result Performance WPA
Apr 6 W, 4-2 @ HOU 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R +.350
Apr 11 ND, 3-2 @ PIT 6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R +.029
Apr 17 L, 1-6 v PIT 6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R -.238
Apr 22 ND, 12-9 @ CHN 5.1 IP, 12 H, 7 R -.522
Apr 28 L, 1-8 v CHN 4.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R -.164
May 4 W, 3-2 v HOU 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R +.106
May 9 W, 9-2 v COL 6.0 IP, 9 H, 2 R +.123
May 15 L, 7-9 @ LAN 2.2 IP, 7 H, 8 R -.589
May 22 W, 9-4 v PIT 5.1 IP, 9 H, 2 R +.101
May 27 L, 2-7 v WAS 7.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R +.111
Jun 1 ND, 8-1 @ HOU 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R +.291
Jun 7 L, 1-5 v CIN 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R -.132
Jun 13 W, 7-3 @ KCR 8.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R +.155
Jun 18 L, 3-5 v KCR 7.0 IP, 9 H, 5 R -.183
Jun 23 W, 8-3 v PHI 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R +.164
Jun 30 L, 1-5 @ CIN 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R -.194

As you can see, there are games in which Wagonmaker is primarily responsible for the win (the two starts @ HOU) and others where it seems he did everything to make sure we lost (@ CHN, @ LAN). He also has a few where he did just enough to push us toward victory (pretty much anything with 2 runs allowed).
If you reassign wins, losses and no decisions based on how well each hurler pitched [+.100 or better = win, -.100 or worse = loss, in between = ND), here is how our starting pitchers look to date:

Pitcher Wins Losses ND's
Wainwright 8 7 1
Wells 3 8 4
Looper 8 5 2
Reyes 1 8 3
Thompson 3 3 3
Wellemeyer 1 3 2
Keisler 0 2 1
Maroth 1 1 0
Carpenter 0 1 0

Wainwright picks up an additional two wins, Looper improves on his 6-6 record, and Wellemeyer displays a mark that actually befits how well he has pitched and not how well his teammates have saved his ass. (Looking at it this way, there isn't much difference between Welly, Reyes, and Wells.)

A by-product of looking at the rotation's performances is that I was able to break out the contributions from each component of the team. In the month of June, our starting pitchers posted a WPA of -1.908, which means they pitched badly enough that, by themselves, they would have pushed our record 4 games below .500, with the only positives being Maroth & Wainwright. The bullpen amassed a WPA of +.617, despite an absolute turd of a month from Flores (-.859). The starting lineup combined for +1.264 and the reserves (pinch hitters and such) won an extra game by themselves (+.573). An aside: the pitching staff, taking their turn at the plate, actually outperformed Adam Kennedy for the month (-.549 v -.702). Other notable players: Pujols +2.022, Encarnacion +.667, Cate +.496, Franklin +.668, Izzy +.475.

BTW, as I was trying to get these damn tables to format somewhat intelligently Monday night, someone (I think it was nycbirdo) commented saying that you didn't need WPA to tell you that AW's first start was good and his Dodger Stadium gig was awful. (I had to re-format and just dumped the previous diary.) Well, yeah, that's pretty obvious, but it is looking at his 4/11 start against the Pirates (where he surrendered the tying run in the seventh and left a mess for Springer to clean up) where WPA stands out. His mistakes that inning killed all the work he and the offense had done up to that point, and pretty much all of the credit is given to the bullpen and the pinch-hitting exploits of Chris Duncan. Or why his spoiled no-hitter against KC doesn't get the love from Fangraphs. Read up at the excellent Gas House Graphs to get a better understanding of how the concepts work when applied to Cardinals games.

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Very insightful post
3 things:
  1. Looper's arm injury seems as if it was almost as devastating to the rotation as Carpenter's.  Losing his 'wins' from the rotation his final 3 starts and then 15 days off probably cost us atleast 3 games in the standings.
  2. How come we don't use the 'Jump' anymore on the daily entries?
  3. Was last night a 'revenge game' for us?  Webb robbed Carpenter of the Cy Young, I don't care what the drunken voters said about Trevor Hoffman.  So, was that the Cardinals 'exacting' their revenge?
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 1:17 AM EDT   0 recs

Revenge,
or whatever it was, should happen more often.  We as a club, should look at the other line-up, find someone that stole their lunch money, and use it as kindling for a fire that night.

Go Cards!  

Dont give up boys!

by yer dog first on Jul 3, 2007 2:55 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you know who did this, like, every night?
michael jordan.

i guess he was ok.

I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 3, 2007 10:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

anyone know where I could find...
the VEB tracking of each starters pitches?

People were talking about Reyes not being able to pitch up in the zone...
then I remembered someone here saying that he only had like one ball batted up in the zone all year (which sounds crazy).

by jealousblues on Jul 3, 2007 3:37 AM EDT   0 recs

Larry has them
we're emailing them to him and he's putting them in a big database.  I think he plans on making them available on the site but a lot of us have been playing catch-up as it's really easy to fall behind.  

by chuckb on Jul 3, 2007 10:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

to jealousblues' question...
my disclaimer is... I don't live close enough to the St. Louis metro area, so I see relatively few games on TV.  And maybe I don't understand what "up in the zone" means.
That said, I can report that I need more than one hand to count the number of times I've SEEN Reyes throw what is sometimes called "fat" pitches.  
Of course Anthony has 'velocity' but most ML hitters can hit velocity.
And I am old school, I guess; these auxilary statistics talked about these days only baffle me.  To paraphrase the Stengel line, "I don't need no stinkin' numbers"... to tell me who can pitch effectively and who can't.
My EYES tell me that Looper and Thompson consistently keep the ball down; Carpenter and Wainy mostly do, too, but like to throw in trick pitches; -- Wells is terrible any way you look at it, and I think Wellemeyer is a Reyes in waiting.
Altho' I have been impressed by the defenses recently offered, re. Anthony, on this site, (especially his attitude) I still cannot leave the 'dump Reyes' camp.  He is mostly 'powder river' (or at least WANTS to be)and only the rare ones {Ryan, Seaver, Clemens, eg} can get away with that consistently

by CurtFlood on Jul 3, 2007 11:45 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Playing Better
The Cardinals still aren't a very good team, however, they have improved.

After the organization had to deal with burying a teammate, the Cardinals stood at 10-16.  They had a run differential of 84 RS to 127 RA, -43 runs.

The next 26 games, the Cardinals went 13-13.  They had a run differential of 118 RS to 126 RA, -8 runs.

Over this last 27 games (adding one in for good measure), the team has gone 14-13.  They have a run differential of 141 RS to 155 RA, -14 runs.

Since that terrible day, the Cardinals have gone 27-26.  Their run differential has been 259 RS to 281 RA, -22 runs.  

No team wants to have a negative run differential, however the improvement is a positive sign.

The idea while Carpenter, Edmonds, Eckstein, Rolen, Looper, etc have been injured was to 'survive'.  The Cardinals have done that.  With their hodge-podge rotation and hodge-podge lineups they've been able to play .500 baseball and almost break even in the run differential.

What is astonishing is that as much maligned the rotation was for 'falling apart' after their terrific start, they've stayed moderately consistent.  With Carpenter's return soon after the All-Star Break, the additions of Percival and Maroth, it has to be believed that they'll not balloon into allowing more runs.

That awful, awful start may have doomed the season.  The -43 run differential is staggering, especially looking at how it much the offense has improved since that time.  

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the there is reason for hope, other than just waxing poetic.  The team has yet to be full strength or atleast the strength we can expect.  

Yet, the Cardinals have been able to play .500 ball.  They're going to have to go on a 26 game stretch of .600+ ball to erase that horrid start, though.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 4:17 AM EDT   0 recs

shrek.. heck, it was Al and Scott Monday night!
Good to see Percival looks as good on the GHGs as he has on the mound.

A bootleg of Shrek 3 might have been in order for some of us to lighten the first half load...

We need to celebrate the revenge win against Webb and hope this team goes for the throat in the second half after not getting the respect theyve deserved dating back to at least Y2K

Webbs and Carpenters stats were nearly identical in 06...but Carpenter had the obstacle of being a St Louis Cardinal on a team helmed by Tony LaRussa to overcome with the press. Are we the Rodney Dangerfields of the MLB press or do the Cubs still own that?

"I don't need a damn number to tell me the guy's no good right now!" Old Casey.... Pitching, base running and defense!

by cardschinmusic on Jul 3, 2007 7:28 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Carp lost it for himself
by giving up 12 earned runs (raising his era by .3) in his last two starts of the year. (Webb had a horrific final start of the year, too, but also threw 3 cgs in sep, including one-hitting the hapless world champs to be.)
Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Jul 3, 2007 7:34 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Please, let's not go
down that road of how our boys get no respect and the East Coast media hates us, yada yada.  This site could quickly turn into the Post-Dispatch boards if we fall prey to paranoia.

As a St. Louisan living on the East Coast, I have a different perspective, i.e., that our Cardinals get a hell of a lot MORE coverage (and positive coverage at that) than most other non-Eastern teams do. Sometimes I'm shocked at how many Cardinal games I can see on TV here, or the coverage of our team by East Coast media.  Believe me, we clearly get better and more coverage than the Astros, Rangers, Reds, Royals, etc. The reality is that the press is not anti-STL; at worst it is indifferent to the Cardinals, the Midwest, and other teams not on the Eastern Seaboard. And yes, that can be a little maddening at times, but it's perfectly consistent with the attitudes of most people who live here as well.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 3, 2007 10:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah.
A good number of the people that I've met from out of state have the impression that the entire midwest is just like Footloose.  So it's pretty natural to transfer the hatred of this condescending attitude to sports coverage.

by Valatan on Jul 3, 2007 10:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

reply to this
seems to be used properly less and less each day.

Comment Quality Added (CQA) when

  • Not using the reply to this when you should: CQA = -.185
  • Using the reply to this when you shouldn't: CQA = -.262
  • Properly using reply to this: CQA = .085
I've scaled them to lineup with WPA.  It's hard to make a worthwhile comment, but it's easy to F things up.

I fully intend on randomly assigning CQA to comments from this day forward.  

O and those CQAs are based on an empirical study that sought to rationalize the standard deviation among comments from multiple distributions over a gaussian curve. . .or I just made them up.

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 10:50 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

best. game. ever.
somehow i have a feeling i will find this funnier than anything else in these threads for the next several weeks.
I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 3, 2007 10:53 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

OK, I'll respond:
Our boys are toast for 2007.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 3, 2007 11:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Everybody Cut!
Everybody cut!
Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Jul 3, 2007 10:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I live
almost right in the middle of Illinois (2.5 hours from St.Lou; 3 hours from Chi) and it is pretty funny that we can get nearly every single Bird game played in a season (FSN, KSDK, FOX, ESPN), but the Cub fans are often shut out by the arcane rules of Comcast and the "new" WGN (which tends to show more White Sox than Cubs these days). Ya oughtta hear em howl about that. What New Yawk thinks couldn't matter less to me.

by rockin redbird on Jul 3, 2007 10:54 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It wasn't nycbirdo
it was me. I am a huge fan of baseball and I love the Cards. Sometimes however I get a headache from all the stats and formulas.

I do understand how important they are, and how they can be used to compare players. Specially when considering a trade or evaluating a prospect, but I can't help but feel that this game might just have all the fun statted out of it.

 You are right that Wainman's line for the 4/11 game looks pretty good, but if you saw, heard or read about that game you would know that he almost blew it totally.

 Sometimes I just want to sit back and watch the game, and see these guys (even at single A ball) make plays. Plays I only can dream about making!

by nybirdfan on Jul 3, 2007 8:46 AM EDT   0 recs

yeah, i was gonna say
that doesn't sound like something i'd say.
I believe in the Sports Guy rule. Any "complaining" in this post is actually happy, cheerful "constructive criticism."

by nycbirdo on Jul 3, 2007 10:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sorry
I'm kind of like Leonard from the movie "Memento" - if I don't write it down immediately, it slips from my memory. And I don't plan on getting any tattoos.
Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

by Solanus on Jul 3, 2007 11:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We need TLR to pull a Piniella
and go crazy and get thrown out of a game. Ever since that fiasco, the Cubs have been playing like one of the best teams in baseball. Granted...they have much more talent then we do...it would still be funny to watch TLR go nuts.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 3, 2007 10:33 AM EDT   0 recs

I more than partially agree
but face spitting and dirt kicking does not seem to be TLR's style; nonetheless his passion for the game seems too often to be under a bushel.
And that recent Reds' game... where the plate umpire was borderline awful... IS a good example of where Tony should have gotten the old heave-ho.

by CurtFlood on Jul 3, 2007 12:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Bad Management
I've been thinking about Reyes getting sent down. The biggest problem I have with it is this. What do they expect is going to happen? The rotation is hopefully Carp and 4 "Mostly Harmless" starters. How is that going to make up 10 games?

Good management isn't suprised when expect results become actual results. So if we finish in 3rd place 7 games back what will management say? "Wow didn't see that coming." or "We really thought Thompson and Wellemeyer would make the next step" What will they say and to the point what will they know about Reyes they don't know now? What will a September call up tell them? That even though he hates you and is counting the days until free agency he can still pitch?

I know some will say "but Reyes isn't that good right now." Your right and management can say that in order for this team to make the next step Reyes has to make the next step. No one should be suprised. Reyes is 0-10 and we are 10 games back. As goes Reyes so goes this team...and where is he going? Backward.

Earlier I called Reyes this teams "Pivot Point" where what has happened before Reyes has lead up to him and everything after him will be because of him...and that how management handles him will go a long way to determining the future of this team...and in the face of adversity this team choose to do nothing.

I see stormclouds ahead...looks like rain.

by Harknights on Jul 3, 2007 10:38 AM EDT   0 recs

I've posted this a couple of times and haven't
seen a response, so here goes:  if the Cardinals think Reyes doesn't have what it takes to be a big league pitcher, if they don't think he's going to be any good, trade him.  Today.  Trade him to Cubs or the Brewers--now.  Then you can beat up on him on your way to the top.  Now, would they be willing to take that chance?  Really this whole thing is because he can't throw a sinker......some of you might want to look into the tale of Jose Rijo a pitcher under LaDunc's tutelage in Oakland.  There is a stunning resemblance to what is going on right now......

by jillsinmo on Jul 3, 2007 10:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The sinker is old hat
they aren't trying to get him to throw the sinker anymore but rather throw 'A FASTBALL' down in the zone.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 11:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

After watching his last start
I do wish he had a better breaking pitch to go along with his offspeed stuff.  That slurvey thing he tries to throw (i believe it's supposed to be a curveball) comes out sloppy.

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 11:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The sinker may be gone, but
it's not forgotten.....You didn't respond to the idea of trading him---I really am curious what folks think about that....

by jillsinmo on Jul 3, 2007 11:07 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think it is you throwing a fit
trade him to division rivals?  Not likely.  

Especially when the can just send him to Memphis, where a developing pitcher can develop a legit breaking pitch and work on not just 'throwing' but 'pitching', something Reyes himself seems to be admitting he doesn't do.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 11:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey, if he's not any good, why not?
Seriously, why would'nt you.  What difference would make.....then you know you'd win those 2-3 games..

by jillsinmo on Jul 3, 2007 11:21 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

For 2 or 3 wins a year
they better send us Marmol, Pie or Hill from the Cubs and Hart or Carlos Villanueva from the Brewers.

Trading a young, uninjured arm just for 2 or 3 wins would be bad baseball.

I'd trade Kip Wells for 2 or 3 runs but that is just because he is being paid $4 million.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There is no reason to get jumpy.
We should be looking to trade him. Walt should be finding out what people will give for him, and if there is anything of value go for it. By anything of value I'm talking any position player who projects to be a major league starter in the next few years, or a solid starting pitching prospect.

There is no reason to give him away. We can keep him in Memphis and when we are devastated by injuries again we can call him up. At least we know what we are getting, 5 runs in 4 innings most night, and occasionally (maybe once every 8 or 9 starts) a gem.

by ZiggyG on Jul 3, 2007 2:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I have zero insider knowledge,
but if there is a serious disagreement within the Cardinal management about Reyes, it might explain the schizo attitude about him. And it might prevent a trade, assuming AR's advocates have enough pull.

Actually I think groupthink is so dangerous that I hope there is serious disagreement there.  We might not know the answer until the offseason, when we see if the current leadership stays or goes.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Jul 3, 2007 11:18 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree 100%
It's almost obvious that there seems to be multiple attitudes in management regarding the direction of the ballclub.  One side wants to see the improvement of developing/using younger talent, and the other prefers trades/free agency/reclamation projects for proven veterans in an effort to (attempt to) "win now."

I believe it's EXACTLY this disagreement that is preventing a trade of Reyes, who unfortunately, happens to be caught in the middle, and therefore, gets sent to AAA.  I'm not saying he hasn't underperformed - he's in this predicament because of his own doing - but only partly.  He's also gotten (almost LITERALLY) zero run support, which is not his fault.  Nor is the current state of management his fault.  He just happens to be the goat in this situation.

I think it will go down exactly as TLR described - barring injury, he'll be in AAA until September, get called up when rosters expand, the Cards will finish how they finish, and this offseason we'll find out who's really in charge.
 

Duncan 4 Cleanup

by SmashedAtoms on Jul 3, 2007 1:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

As for as the direction of the club goes
they have got to get the farm system in better shape.  They didn't even have a catcher close to ready for a major league back up to send when Molina went down.  That really is inexcusable.  With the price of MLB players skyrocketing, you have got to spend it carefully.....the free agents they signed this off season have not worked well, okay, you can't always predict everything, but a lot of the spare parts from the AAA club haven't done to well either.  I never wanted them in the big sweepstakes for the big name pitchers---I wish they would have gone and got a hitter and a shortstop.  Eckstein has missed more than he's played this year, and he also missed a lot last year.  I'm afraid he's going to have a problem staying healthy from here on out.  I'd try to grow my own pitchers--trade wisely, and re sign the best of the group, and buy a bat if I need one.  Pitchers are always too much of an injury risk, batters usually perform closer to their career norms...

by jillsinmo on Jul 3, 2007 1:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What response do you want?
Reyes has been mentioned in trade talk more than once.

by sdrone on Jul 3, 2007 11:41 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Disagree.
The sinker is a sticking point, but it isn't the whole story IMHO.  TLR and Duncan maybe hardheaded, but they aren't stupid.  If Reyes could show he wins consistantly or even occasionally, he'd stick in this rotation.
The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 3, 2007 1:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Anthony Reyes WISHES he was Jose Rijo
as bad as Rijo was under Duncan/LaRussa, he still was infinently better than Reyes.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 2:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I use him because his
career took off as soon as he got out from under LaDunc.  And I'm not saying Reyes is Rijo....but the way they have handled him, is similiar to they way they are handling Reyes....

by jillsinmo on Jul 3, 2007 2:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't doubt Reyes could flourish under different
management or coaching.  But right now he almost seems the definition of a AAAA pitcher.  Personally, I would have given him another shot after the Mets start, but I understand why that decission was made.
The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 3, 2007 2:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if the logic for Reyes
being in the rotation is the number of wins he has then someone in the front office has seriously impaired decision making abilities.  

We're 6-0 (i think) in Todd Wellemeyer starts.  Looking at what Solanus posted above he and Reyes both should have won 1 game.  I hope that not a single person on the Cardinals payroll said we should send him down becuase he can't "win consistantly".  If one player could "win" a baseball game, we wouldn't need baseball teams.

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 2:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not what I said.
I said: "If Reyes could show he wins consistantly or even occasionally, he'd stick in this rotation"  That doesn't mean that if Reyes doesn't win, he automatically gets sent down.  The point being his perifirals are poor and his wins are non-existant.  In rough business or engineering terms neither the process nor the product is very good...
The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 3, 2007 2:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

His peripherals
point to a 4.62 FIP.  That should be good enough to stay in the bigs in a rotation on a team not contending (i.e. the Cardinals).

he hasn't won games, but his peripherals are that of a player transitioning to the bigs.  the process fundamentals are there, it's little tweaks.

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 3:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He also has
an ERA of over 6 and as Solanus points out his WPA roughly describes a 1-8 record.  Taken all together it shows both poor performance and poor results.
The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 3, 2007 3:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if a process isn't working
do you shelve it entirely?  What is going to get fixed in Memphis that they couldn't fix in STL?

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 3:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and I mean that as a legit question
I'm curious what people think sending him to memphis is going to do.  There seems to be (not necessarily you Zubin) this idea that if he hasn't gotten it yet we can just demote him and 'POOF' he's fixed.  I don't understand that.

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 3:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

-.97 CQA
not being able to put 2 thoughts in 1 comment.

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 3:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess
In my opinion the stakes obviously aren't nearly as high at the minor league level. That is why you work on things down there.

Now, I think the question is "is this team in it?" I dont think so and maybe others don't but I do think the powers that be do. So, with that knowledge, they aren't going to let him "figure" things out and "work" on things at the big league level.

Until the powers that be decide this season is over, he is going to have to "work" on things in Memphis. Plus the obvious benefit that the players arent as good in Memphis is allows him some leeway to fail some.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jul 3, 2007 3:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i agree that the front office
probably isn't ready to concede yet and that's not totally unreasonable.

but his problems don't translate to the minors.  He goes down there and dominates.  Here's a (really bad analogy):

Bob has to work in St. Louis for his job.  Something in St. Louis makes him sick. If he works in Indianapolis for a while, everything seems ok and all his symptoms are gone until he gets back to St. Louis.

Can you diagnose Bob while he's in Indianapolis?

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 4:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Reyes problems
I wonder if Reyes problems have something to do with his warm-up. Carp warms up longer than most to get a feel for his breaking pitched before he starts.  Most of Reyes' problems seem to occur in the first inning.  Maybe he is too amped at the beggining of games and those pitches he gets away with early in Memphis are getting hit in STL.  Just a theory.

by gonzostl on Jul 3, 2007 4:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fair question
I think the only reason he is being sent to Memphis is because he still can.  i.e he is in his final option year.  And I don't think he is "learning" much if anything in Memphis.  However, I do understand the move to an extent.  If the Cardinals brass still thinks we are contenders, we need the best guys up here to win games and we need to preserve the 40 man roster.  Optioning A-Rey arguably is the best way to acomplish both.

The only way optioning A-Rey does any good for A-Rey himself, is if he is suffering some kind of psycological damage through failure.  I really don't see that- well not much at least.

Personnally, after the Mets start, I'd give him another shot or two.  I'd also think hard about a bullpen role the for a while in order to learn "situational pitching" skills at a major league level.  Of course if the Cardinals did that, they be waving the white flag on the season.

The St Louis Cardinals- 11 time World Champs!

by Zubin on Jul 3, 2007 6:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

"As goes Anthony Reyes...."
Actually, with Reyes on the active roster, the Cardinals are 28-33.  With him off of it, they are 9-9.

:D

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 10:46 AM EDT   0 recs

Well, now he really
had no control over OUR offense, which hasn't shown up several times this season....

by jillsinmo on Jul 3, 2007 11:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Which shows how arbitrary it is to say
an 0-10 pitcher with a 6.00+ ERA is 'how the team goes'.
Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 11:07 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good Post
Normally that math starts making my head hurt, but I like it this time. To me is just proves why I still don't like Reyes. Based on what you are saying he is no better than Wells or Welly. In fact Wells is better, even though many on this board want him gone. Why is everyone so high on this guy(Reyes)? I think it is easy to play the blame game and blame LaDunc, but maybe Reyes just isn't good and is an average pitcher at best. It is easy to say LaDunc don't like young pitchers, but what about AW? They had so much confidence that he was closing the freaking World Series. Matt Morris, another young pitcher who did well. So call me crazy but I am more likely to think Reyes just isn't that good or ready, than LaDunc are wrong. This is not to say I don't think they ever screw up, because everyone does and everyone guesses wrong, that is what makes baseball fun. However, in this case I think I trust with what they are doing. The season still isn't over, regardless of what of the bandwagon fans think.
http://welcometojohnsonville.blogspot.com

by arthropodtodd on Jul 3, 2007 11:02 AM EDT   0 recs

Reyes
Everyone thinks so highly of Reyes because he is one of the most highly touted prospects we have had in a long time.
Tony and Dave have a great track record with veterans who they plug into their system. Not everyone fits that system.
We are blaming them for trying to plug Reyes into that sytem which obviously doesn't work for him. In other words, if he was given a fair shake and not forced to pitch in a way he can't, most here believe his numbers would have been significantly better.
Of course, maybe if he had a little run support, less pressure from LaDuncan, and the constant fear or being shipped back to Memphis, he could have relaxed and maybe just throw like he can, especially with men on base.
When Wainwright has struggled this year, there was no pressure on him.

by Carps on Jul 3, 2007 11:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wainwright vs Reyes
Wainwright had a better track record last year, however he and Reyes appeared to be given the same amount of leash.  Wainwright has been able to keep his ERA in the 4.00s and win a few game whereas Reyes has not.

Tony said as much in the P-D today, stating that if Anthony had won a game, the decision would probably be different.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 11:51 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

quote
"What complicates all this is he hasn't won a game," La Russa said. "There is the possibility that if he won one of those games his progress would have gone quicker."

That is not TLR saying it would have been a different decision.  He's saying he would have progressed as a pitcher if he had won a few games.  Frankly, it's more BS that's being tossed around by the coaches & front office.  TLR did not say that the decision would have been different.

by azruavatar on Jul 3, 2007 12:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That Article
I thought that entire article was more BS. It seemed he even went out of his way to talk him up. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cards are already shopping him heavily.

by Carps on Jul 3, 2007 12:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well
In my absence its good to see the Anthony Reyes lovefest is still alive and kicking at vivaelbirdos :)

Look, he hasn't pitched well. The idea that people continue to defend and defend and defend him is ridiculous to me. Do I wish he were in the rotation and not Wellemeyer? Sure. But it's not like Anthony has much room to make an argument.

This idea that his troubles ALL exist from the four-seam, two-seam debate is a joke as well.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Jul 3, 2007 3:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's true.....
especially when you make note that LaDunc made sure every little and big complaint they had with Reyes made it into the PD.....it intensified the pressure IMHO.......

by jillsinmo on Jul 3, 2007 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fangraphs Start at 50% ?
I know I should probably post this at Fangraphs, but a quick questions about those graphs...  they all start at 50% but I think in general home teams win 55%.

So teams at home get more WPA than they deserve... but I guess it evens out over a year.

by Okasa on Jul 3, 2007 11:27 AM EDT   0 recs

There is a Post on Fangraphs about it already
About a month ago I was reading through the old posts on the fangraphs forums and noticed a post about that, it goes very in depth about how you could alter the formula for any number of things (Hey the Reds lose 60% of their games so the chance for their opponent to win should start at 60%!) instead it is easier and as you note should even out over an entire season to just start everyone off at a 50-50 chance to win.