As The Rotation Turns
Morning, everyone. My name is Solanus and I will be your substitute blogger for today. (As Mr. Borowsky is enjoying a well-earned break this week, I will be one of a few humble posters trying not to diminsh the good name Larry has built up so far.) My original plan was to show you kids a bootleg copy of Shrek 3 and call it a day, but apparently that goes against some sort of school policy. Rules suck!
Instead, I'm going to talk about our starting rotation and how Win Probability Added (WPA) sees them. If you've never been out to Fangraphs or, even better for Cards fans, erik's affiliated blog Gas House Graphs, take a look and learn a different way to view a baseball game. Where every out and hit are not measured the same. Where blowout homers and 3-run saves get the (lack of) credit they deserve. Where you can truly understand how much Pujols got jobbed by Ryan Howard last year. (Actually, David Ortiz got it much worse.)
Anyway, looking at the starts for each member of the rotation and the WPA value for each appearance, you can start to see a correlation between a pitcher's performance and how much blame/credit they should receive for a loss/win. Take Adam Wainwright, for instance:
| Date | Result | Performance | WPA |
| Apr 6 | W, 4-2 @ HOU | 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R | +.350 |
| Apr 11 | ND, 3-2 @ PIT | 6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R | +.029 |
| Apr 17 | L, 1-6 v PIT | 6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R | -.238 |
| Apr 22 | ND, 12-9 @ CHN | 5.1 IP, 12 H, 7 R | -.522 |
| Apr 28 | L, 1-8 v CHN | 4.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R | -.164 |
| May 4 | W, 3-2 v HOU | 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R | +.106 |
| May 9 | W, 9-2 v COL | 6.0 IP, 9 H, 2 R | +.123 |
| May 15 | L, 7-9 @ LAN | 2.2 IP, 7 H, 8 R | -.589 |
| May 22 | W, 9-4 v PIT | 5.1 IP, 9 H, 2 R | +.101 |
| May 27 | L, 2-7 v WAS | 7.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R | +.111 |
| Jun 1 | ND, 8-1 @ HOU | 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R | +.291 |
| Jun 7 | L, 1-5 v CIN | 6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 R | -.132 |
| Jun 13 | W, 7-3 @ KCR | 8.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R | +.155 |
| Jun 18 | L, 3-5 v KCR | 7.0 IP, 9 H, 5 R | -.183 |
| Jun 23 | W, 8-3 v PHI | 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R | +.164 |
| Jun 30 | L, 1-5 @ CIN | 5.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R | -.194 |
As you can see, there are games in which Wagonmaker is primarily responsible for the win (the two starts @ HOU) and others where it seems he did everything to make sure we lost (@ CHN, @ LAN). He also has a few where he did just enough to push us toward victory (pretty much anything with 2 runs allowed).
If you reassign wins, losses and no decisions based on how well each hurler pitched [+.100 or better = win, -.100 or worse = loss, in between = ND), here is how our starting pitchers look to date:
| Pitcher | Wins | Losses | ND's |
| Wainwright | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Wells | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| Looper | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| Reyes | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| Thompson | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Wellemeyer | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Keisler | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Maroth | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Carpenter | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Wainwright picks up an additional two wins, Looper improves on his 6-6 record, and Wellemeyer displays a mark that actually befits how well he has pitched and not how well his teammates have saved his ass. (Looking at it this way, there isn't much difference between Welly, Reyes, and Wells.)
A by-product of looking at the rotation's performances is that I was able to break out the contributions from each component of the team. In the month of June, our starting pitchers posted a WPA of -1.908, which means they pitched badly enough that, by themselves, they would have pushed our record 4 games below .500, with the only positives being Maroth & Wainwright. The bullpen amassed a WPA of +.617, despite an absolute turd of a month from Flores (-.859). The starting lineup combined for +1.264 and the reserves (pinch hitters and such) won an extra game by themselves (+.573). An aside: the pitching staff, taking their turn at the plate, actually outperformed Adam Kennedy for the month (-.549 v -.702). Other notable players: Pujols +2.022, Encarnacion +.667, Cate +.496, Franklin +.668, Izzy +.475.
BTW, as I was trying to get these damn tables to format somewhat intelligently Monday night, someone (I think it was nycbirdo) commented saying that you didn't need WPA to tell you that AW's first start was good and his Dodger Stadium gig was awful. (I had to re-format and just dumped the previous diary.) Well, yeah, that's pretty obvious, but it is looking at his 4/11 start against the Pirates (where he surrendered the tying run in the seventh and left a mess for Springer to clean up) where WPA stands out. His mistakes that inning killed all the work he and the offense had done up to that point, and pretty much all of the credit is given to the bullpen and the pinch-hitting exploits of Chris Duncan. Or why his spoiled no-hitter against KC doesn't get the love from Fangraphs. Read up at the excellent Gas House Graphs to get a better understanding of how the concepts work when applied to Cardinals games.
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Comments
Very insightful post
- Looper's arm injury seems as if it was almost as devastating to the rotation as Carpenter's. Losing his 'wins' from the rotation his final 3 starts and then 15 days off probably cost us atleast 3 games in the standings.
- How come we don't use the 'Jump' anymore on the daily entries?
- Was last night a 'revenge game' for us? Webb robbed Carpenter of the Cy Young, I don't care what the drunken voters said about Trevor Hoffman. So, was that the Cardinals 'exacting' their revenge?
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 1:17 AM EDT 0 recs
Revenge,
Go Cards!
by yer dog first on
Jul 3, 2007 2:55 AM EDT
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you know who did this, like, every night?
i guess he was ok.
by nycbirdo on
Jul 3, 2007 10:47 AM EDT
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anyone know where I could find...
People were talking about Reyes not being able to pitch up in the zone...
then I remembered someone here saying that he only had like one ball batted up in the zone all year (which sounds crazy).
by jealousblues on Jul 3, 2007 3:37 AM EDT 0 recs
Larry has them
by chuckb on
Jul 3, 2007 10:56 AM EDT
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to jealousblues' question...
That said, I can report that I need more than one hand to count the number of times I've SEEN Reyes throw what is sometimes called "fat" pitches.
Of course Anthony has 'velocity' but most ML hitters can hit velocity.
And I am old school, I guess; these auxilary statistics talked about these days only baffle me. To paraphrase the Stengel line, "I don't need no stinkin' numbers"... to tell me who can pitch effectively and who can't.
My EYES tell me that Looper and Thompson consistently keep the ball down; Carpenter and Wainy mostly do, too, but like to throw in trick pitches; -- Wells is terrible any way you look at it, and I think Wellemeyer is a Reyes in waiting.
Altho' I have been impressed by the defenses recently offered, re. Anthony, on this site, (especially his attitude) I still cannot leave the 'dump Reyes' camp. He is mostly 'powder river' (or at least WANTS to be)and only the rare ones {Ryan, Seaver, Clemens, eg} can get away with that consistently
by CurtFlood on
Jul 3, 2007 11:45 AM EDT
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Playing Better
After the organization had to deal with burying a teammate, the Cardinals stood at 10-16. They had a run differential of 84 RS to 127 RA, -43 runs.
The next 26 games, the Cardinals went 13-13. They had a run differential of 118 RS to 126 RA, -8 runs.
Over this last 27 games (adding one in for good measure), the team has gone 14-13. They have a run differential of 141 RS to 155 RA, -14 runs.
Since that terrible day, the Cardinals have gone 27-26. Their run differential has been 259 RS to 281 RA, -22 runs.
No team wants to have a negative run differential, however the improvement is a positive sign.
The idea while Carpenter, Edmonds, Eckstein, Rolen, Looper, etc have been injured was to 'survive'. The Cardinals have done that. With their hodge-podge rotation and hodge-podge lineups they've been able to play .500 baseball and almost break even in the run differential.
What is astonishing is that as much maligned the rotation was for 'falling apart' after their terrific start, they've stayed moderately consistent. With Carpenter's return soon after the All-Star Break, the additions of Percival and Maroth, it has to be believed that they'll not balloon into allowing more runs.
That awful, awful start may have doomed the season. The -43 run differential is staggering, especially looking at how it much the offense has improved since that time.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that the there is reason for hope, other than just waxing poetic. The team has yet to be full strength or atleast the strength we can expect.
Yet, the Cardinals have been able to play .500 ball. They're going to have to go on a 26 game stretch of .600+ ball to erase that horrid start, though.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 4:17 AM EDT 0 recs
shrek.. heck, it was Al and Scott Monday night!
A bootleg of Shrek 3 might have been in order for some of us to lighten the first half load...
We need to celebrate the revenge win against Webb and hope this team goes for the throat in the second half after not getting the respect theyve deserved dating back to at least Y2K
Webbs and Carpenters stats were nearly identical in 06...but Carpenter had the obstacle of being a St Louis Cardinal on a team helmed by Tony LaRussa to overcome with the press. Are we the Rodney Dangerfields of the MLB press or do the Cubs still own that?
by cardschinmusic on
Jul 3, 2007 7:28 AM EDT
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Carp lost it for himself
by Alxfritz on
Jul 3, 2007 7:34 AM EDT
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Please, let's not go
As a St. Louisan living on the East Coast, I have a different perspective, i.e., that our Cardinals get a hell of a lot MORE coverage (and positive coverage at that) than most other non-Eastern teams do. Sometimes I'm shocked at how many Cardinal games I can see on TV here, or the coverage of our team by East Coast media. Believe me, we clearly get better and more coverage than the Astros, Rangers, Reds, Royals, etc. The reality is that the press is not anti-STL; at worst it is indifferent to the Cardinals, the Midwest, and other teams not on the Eastern Seaboard. And yes, that can be a little maddening at times, but it's perfectly consistent with the attitudes of most people who live here as well.
by MdRedbirdFreak on
Jul 3, 2007 10:24 AM EDT
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Yeah.
by Valatan on
Jul 3, 2007 10:31 AM EDT
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I love that all these replies are in no way
by Hardcore Legend on
Jul 3, 2007 10:41 AM EDT
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reply to this
Comment Quality Added (CQA) when
- Not using the reply to this when you should: CQA = -.185
- Using the reply to this when you shouldn't: CQA = -.262
- Properly using reply to this: CQA = .085
I fully intend on randomly assigning CQA to comments from this day forward.
O and those CQAs are based on an empirical study that sought to rationalize the standard deviation among comments from multiple distributions over a gaussian curve. . .or I just made them up.
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 10:50 AM EDT
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best. game. ever.
by nycbirdo on
Jul 3, 2007 10:53 AM EDT
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OK, I'll respond:
by MdRedbirdFreak on
Jul 3, 2007 11:12 AM EDT
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I live
by rockin redbird on
Jul 3, 2007 10:54 AM EDT
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It wasn't nycbirdo
I do understand how important they are, and how they can be used to compare players. Specially when considering a trade or evaluating a prospect, but I can't help but feel that this game might just have all the fun statted out of it.
You are right that Wainman's line for the 4/11 game looks pretty good, but if you saw, heard or read about that game you would know that he almost blew it totally.
Sometimes I just want to sit back and watch the game, and see these guys (even at single A ball) make plays. Plays I only can dream about making!
by nybirdfan on Jul 3, 2007 8:46 AM EDT 0 recs
yeah, i was gonna say
by nycbirdo on
Jul 3, 2007 10:49 AM EDT
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Sorry
by Solanus on
Jul 3, 2007 11:11 AM EDT
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We need TLR to pull a Piniella
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jul 3, 2007 10:33 AM EDT 0 recs
I more than partially agree
And that recent Reds' game... where the plate umpire was borderline awful... IS a good example of where Tony should have gotten the old heave-ho.
by CurtFlood on
Jul 3, 2007 12:49 PM EDT
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Bad Management
Good management isn't suprised when expect results become actual results. So if we finish in 3rd place 7 games back what will management say? "Wow didn't see that coming." or "We really thought Thompson and Wellemeyer would make the next step" What will they say and to the point what will they know about Reyes they don't know now? What will a September call up tell them? That even though he hates you and is counting the days until free agency he can still pitch?
I know some will say "but Reyes isn't that good right now." Your right and management can say that in order for this team to make the next step Reyes has to make the next step. No one should be suprised. Reyes is 0-10 and we are 10 games back. As goes Reyes so goes this team...and where is he going? Backward.
Earlier I called Reyes this teams "Pivot Point" where what has happened before Reyes has lead up to him and everything after him will be because of him...and that how management handles him will go a long way to determining the future of this team...and in the face of adversity this team choose to do nothing.
I see stormclouds ahead...looks like rain.
by Harknights on Jul 3, 2007 10:38 AM EDT 0 recs
I've posted this a couple of times and haven't
by jillsinmo on
Jul 3, 2007 10:57 AM EDT
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The sinker is old hat
by Hardcore Legend on
Jul 3, 2007 11:03 AM EDT
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After watching his last start
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 11:06 AM EDT
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The sinker may be gone, but
by jillsinmo on
Jul 3, 2007 11:07 AM EDT
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I think it is you throwing a fit
Especially when the can just send him to Memphis, where a developing pitcher can develop a legit breaking pitch and work on not just 'throwing' but 'pitching', something Reyes himself seems to be admitting he doesn't do.
by Hardcore Legend on
Jul 3, 2007 11:15 AM EDT
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Hey, if he's not any good, why not?
by jillsinmo on
Jul 3, 2007 11:21 AM EDT
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For 2 or 3 wins a year
Trading a young, uninjured arm just for 2 or 3 wins would be bad baseball.
I'd trade Kip Wells for 2 or 3 runs but that is just because he is being paid $4 million.
by Hardcore Legend on
Jul 3, 2007 11:56 AM EDT
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There is no reason to get jumpy.
There is no reason to give him away. We can keep him in Memphis and when we are devastated by injuries again we can call him up. At least we know what we are getting, 5 runs in 4 innings most night, and occasionally (maybe once every 8 or 9 starts) a gem.
by ZiggyG on
Jul 3, 2007 2:08 PM EDT
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I have zero insider knowledge,
Actually I think groupthink is so dangerous that I hope there is serious disagreement there. We might not know the answer until the offseason, when we see if the current leadership stays or goes.
by MdRedbirdFreak on
Jul 3, 2007 11:18 AM EDT
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I agree 100%
I believe it's EXACTLY this disagreement that is preventing a trade of Reyes, who unfortunately, happens to be caught in the middle, and therefore, gets sent to AAA. I'm not saying he hasn't underperformed - he's in this predicament because of his own doing - but only partly. He's also gotten (almost LITERALLY) zero run support, which is not his fault. Nor is the current state of management his fault. He just happens to be the goat in this situation.
I think it will go down exactly as TLR described - barring injury, he'll be in AAA until September, get called up when rosters expand, the Cards will finish how they finish, and this offseason we'll find out who's really in charge.
by SmashedAtoms on
Jul 3, 2007 1:22 PM EDT
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As for as the direction of the club goes
by jillsinmo on
Jul 3, 2007 1:40 PM EDT
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What response do you want?
by sdrone on
Jul 3, 2007 11:41 AM EDT
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Disagree.
by Zubin on
Jul 3, 2007 1:03 PM EDT
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Anthony Reyes WISHES he was Jose Rijo
by Hardcore Legend on
Jul 3, 2007 2:27 PM EDT
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I use him because his
by jillsinmo on
Jul 3, 2007 2:40 PM EDT
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I don't doubt Reyes could flourish under different
by Zubin on
Jul 3, 2007 2:55 PM EDT
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if the logic for Reyes
We're 6-0 (i think) in Todd Wellemeyer starts. Looking at what Solanus posted above he and Reyes both should have won 1 game. I hope that not a single person on the Cardinals payroll said we should send him down becuase he can't "win consistantly". If one player could "win" a baseball game, we wouldn't need baseball teams.
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 2:12 PM EDT
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Not what I said.
by Zubin on
Jul 3, 2007 2:51 PM EDT
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His peripherals
he hasn't won games, but his peripherals are that of a player transitioning to the bigs. the process fundamentals are there, it's little tweaks.
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 3:27 PM EDT
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He also has
by Zubin on
Jul 3, 2007 3:40 PM EDT
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if a process isn't working
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 3:43 PM EDT
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and I mean that as a legit question
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 3:44 PM EDT
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-.97 CQA
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 3:45 PM EDT
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I guess
Now, I think the question is "is this team in it?" I dont think so and maybe others don't but I do think the powers that be do. So, with that knowledge, they aren't going to let him "figure" things out and "work" on things at the big league level.
Until the powers that be decide this season is over, he is going to have to "work" on things in Memphis. Plus the obvious benefit that the players arent as good in Memphis is allows him some leeway to fail some.
by beanocook on
Jul 3, 2007 3:52 PM EDT
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i agree that the front office
but his problems don't translate to the minors. He goes down there and dominates. Here's a (really bad analogy):
Bob has to work in St. Louis for his job. Something in St. Louis makes him sick. If he works in Indianapolis for a while, everything seems ok and all his symptoms are gone until he gets back to St. Louis.
Can you diagnose Bob while he's in Indianapolis?
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 4:07 PM EDT
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Reyes problems
by gonzostl on
Jul 3, 2007 4:31 PM EDT
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Fair question
The only way optioning A-Rey does any good for A-Rey himself, is if he is suffering some kind of psycological damage through failure. I really don't see that- well not much at least.
Personnally, after the Mets start, I'd give him another shot or two. I'd also think hard about a bullpen role the for a while in order to learn "situational pitching" skills at a major league level. Of course if the Cardinals did that, they be waving the white flag on the season.
by Zubin on
Jul 3, 2007 6:13 PM EDT
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"As goes Anthony Reyes...."
:D
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 3, 2007 10:46 AM EDT 0 recs
Well, now he really
by jillsinmo on
Jul 3, 2007 11:04 AM EDT
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Which shows how arbitrary it is to say
by Hardcore Legend on
Jul 3, 2007 11:07 AM EDT
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Good Post
by arthropodtodd on Jul 3, 2007 11:02 AM EDT 0 recs
Reyes
Tony and Dave have a great track record with veterans who they plug into their system. Not everyone fits that system.
We are blaming them for trying to plug Reyes into that sytem which obviously doesn't work for him. In other words, if he was given a fair shake and not forced to pitch in a way he can't, most here believe his numbers would have been significantly better.
Of course, maybe if he had a little run support, less pressure from LaDuncan, and the constant fear or being shipped back to Memphis, he could have relaxed and maybe just throw like he can, especially with men on base.
When Wainwright has struggled this year, there was no pressure on him.
by Carps on
Jul 3, 2007 11:44 AM EDT
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Wainwright vs Reyes
Tony said as much in the P-D today, stating that if Anthony had won a game, the decision would probably be different.
by Hardcore Legend on
Jul 3, 2007 11:51 AM EDT
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quote
That is not TLR saying it would have been a different decision. He's saying he would have progressed as a pitcher if he had won a few games. Frankly, it's more BS that's being tossed around by the coaches & front office. TLR did not say that the decision would have been different.
by azruavatar on
Jul 3, 2007 12:07 PM EDT
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That Article
by Carps on
Jul 3, 2007 12:46 PM EDT
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well
Look, he hasn't pitched well. The idea that people continue to defend and defend and defend him is ridiculous to me. Do I wish he were in the rotation and not Wellemeyer? Sure. But it's not like Anthony has much room to make an argument.
This idea that his troubles ALL exist from the four-seam, two-seam debate is a joke as well.
by beanocook on
Jul 3, 2007 3:06 PM EDT
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That's true.....
by jillsinmo on
Jul 3, 2007 11:56 AM EDT
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Fangraphs Start at 50% ?
So teams at home get more WPA than they deserve... but I guess it evens out over a year.
by Okasa on Jul 3, 2007 11:27 AM EDT 0 recs


