Game 94 Open Thread: July 21, 2007
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7-7, 4.60 |
4-2, 4.00 |
GAME TIME 6:05 CDT
pretty lively discussion at the top of last night's game thread about the reasons for adam wainwright's recent success. somebody attributed it to a higher groundball rate; sure enough, last night wainwright had them beating it into the dirt all evening (13 of 19 balls in play were groundballs).but that's just one game. if we look at a larger data sample, the theory doesn't hold up: wainwright actually has been inducing more flyballs lately, not grounders. the numbers below come from wainwright's game log at fangraphs.com:
| ERA | GB% | FB% | LD% | BABIP | |||
| first 9 | 6.02 | 50 | 32 | 18 | .346 | ||
| last 10 | 2.82 | 49 | 38 | 13 | .252 |
more important, batters have been hitting significantly fewer line drives against him --- just 13 percent of the balls in play over the last 10 starts. we can't expect the rate to remain so low; league average is about 19 percent, which is about where wainwright's line-drive rate stood during his period of bad pitching. going forward we should expect a few more line drives, and a commensurate downtick in his performance; the odds are against his maintaining a 2.82 era for the rest of the year.
my own opinion --- just an educated guess --- is that the main difference between wainwright's first 9 starts and his last 10 is pretty straightforward: in the more recent starts, he's been able to throw his curveball for strikes. we're a little behind in our wainwright pitch-charting, but once his data are up to date i will test that theory and see if it holds up.
it's hard to root against the atlanta pitcher tonight. buddy carlyle has been toiling away in pro ball since 1996, throwing more than 1100 minor-league innings --- but only 54 in the big leagues through last season. he has doubled that total in 2007 as an emergency back-end starter. after 5 shabby outings (1-2, 6.11 era), things have suddenly come together for him: he's 3-0 with a 1.73 era over the last month. jason simontaachi-type story; i hope the cards beat him, but you like to see guys like this have their moment.
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Last night's performance
More importantly, with the rotation experiencing a lot of turmoil, and questions about how to approach the offseason, Wainwright has definitely solidified his place in the starting rotation, IMO. There are a lot of questions about next year's rotation, but I think we can safely say that Wainer belongs there and will be a solid starter for us. Now who the other 4 will be, I just can't say at this point.
Yesterday was positive.
He's definitely got the stuff
I agree about the K's and groundball combo
Because Yadi couldn't see his pitches at certain angles and positions (blinded by the lights), Wainwright had to figure out how to work around that and demonstrated great control over location in being able to do so. As a result of the lights behind him, he did not have the whole strike zone available to him (not if he wanted Yadi to catch his pitches). That meant he had to change the game plan as they went along and had to work within a very confined space--relying on the accuracy of his pitches and his ability to shuffle his pitching patterns.
I thought that was amazing. I also continue to think his ability to withstand all kinds of different kinds of pressure is one of the most promising things about him as a pitcher. I just wish we could take a tiny bit of his pitching DNA and inject it into Kip Wells. Kip has great stuff too and I do think he's smart. He just needs to work on that boldness and confidence. Perhaps Adam could help him out on that front.
by nycardfan on Jul 21, 2007 11:28 AM EDT reply actions
Leach's story...
I wonder if anybody else has had the same problem? If they had, you'd think there would have been complaints to the MLB office by now!
Oh, well... Atta boy, Wainer! Go get 'em tonight, Loop! (Is our starting rotation now "Wainer and Loop and... and... and... Ah, poop!") [evil grin on the Goalie!]
by The Ol Goaler on Jul 21, 2007 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe there
by cardsgirl95 on Jul 21, 2007 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
loop and wain
Wainwright being nine feet tall
His release point is higher than it is for most pitchers.
Swagger
1. Beltran walking back to the dug-out after feeling his knee's buckle and the weight of a bat not leaving a shoulder.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYBVBfU0nX0
2. Inge missing, possibly, the biggest pitch of his life by about a foot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRWUeIWgSGw&mode=related&search=
I'll never get tired of those two replays, sorry i'm not good at doing links on here.
Since there has been so much negativity around here lately, let's just raise a glass to events like those mentioned above, the great comments about Edwards last fall, and to a healthy Carp, Mulder, Jimmy, et al.. next yr.
Happy weekend to all.
He seems
"I expect to pitch like I've been pitching, not like I was pitching before," Wainwright said. "Those last 10 starts are where I think I should be."
It helps when his curve and cutter are working like they were last night.
by player2bnamedl8r on Jul 21, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the LINK!!!
Stones. Really big stones on that Wainwright kid.
Chills
Yeah, I was watching this recently
I'm starting to think Molina deeked Beltran into thinking they were wasting that pitch. Beltran never looked like he was going to swing.
by Big Red on Jul 21, 2007 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
thanks for the link
by RosevilleRedbird on Jul 21, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
line drive rate
That seems counterintuitive to me; a batter hits a line drive when he's squared up on the ball, and it seems to me that the definition of a good (contact) pitcher is someone who is able to avoid that.
But then I checked the numbers on fangraphs, and sure enough: there is no real correlation between a pitcher's LD% and their RS/9. So even if a pitcher can control his LD%, it doesn't really correlate with preventing runs. Another lesson learned from VEB.
If pitchers
We can see that Adam's been lucky lately, and unlucky in the beginning from lb's post. I think that we're seeing more just regression to the mean than an establishing of the curveball, and that his 4.27 FIP on the year actually represents his talent level pretty well at this point in his career. I do think the curve is part of it though, so we'll see what the numbers say.
I found Adam's start
Yep...
by rockin redbird on Jul 21, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty off topic, Al
(note - this is from Gammons who from time to time can be a bit of a mouth piece for Red Sox management. I'm not saying he's lying, but it comes off sounding like he has an agenda.)
The article calls it Gammons' theory
Yeah Boras really screws guys up
Hansen in ST had 95 with sink and a devastating slider.....and no idea where it was going. That's not really mechanical. And it's not really a shock to see a prospect flame out.
Did he see Zito last year? He's been on the decline for three years.
Did he watch Hochevar in the futures game throwing 95 mph 4-seams? Did he not look past the ERA at his 94/26 K/BB? Or the fact that a sinkerballer isn't going to have a .96 GB/FB?
This is one of the first times I can think of where I completely disagree with Gammons. Believe me I'm not the biggest fan of Boras in the least, but the guy is good at what he does for a reason to the point where I would bet his guys do know more than teams.
Ron Santo has completely given up
I can't imagine any other radio/TV personality doing anything like that or claiming to do anything like that on air. Perhaps jokingly, saying they did this or that because we said they would but not actively seeking out a player to help them.
I know a lot of people give Santo a pass because he was a former player and 'gosh darn it he loves his Cubbies' but that was utterly pathetic.
Of course, not as pathetic as the DBacks offense is at this point. They've done us no favors this past week with their inept offense.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2007 2:33 PM EDT reply actions
Your first mistake is
Maybe if we just ignore it for a little while and then look back in about 3 weeks, we'll see that they've completely shot their load against an unbelievably soft portion of their schedule and weren't able to add anything to their roster since they keep paying other teams to take the guys they don't want.
Btw, I wish that Jones deal would have gone through a couple of weeks ago. They would have regretted it.
by Big Red on Jul 21, 2007 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Jones has kept that team going
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2007 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Cubs
No doubt they have been on fire, but they haven't exactly been playing contenders over the past 3 weeks. I'm curious to see how they fare against teams that can hit like the Mets, Phillies, Brewers and yes even the Cards.
No doubt they have a good team, but I think they are going to fall back to Earth here pretty soon.
At least let's hope.
The Giants have the advantage
As I type this, the DBacks go stupid on offense. They did a double steal to get runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out, and then the batter (who leads the NL in SAC flies) bunts for no reason in the air to the pitcher. 2 outs.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2007 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally
They've outplayed the Cubs in both game and crap the bed everytime they get close to scoring a run.
They have 2 runs on 6 hits, yet the first run was scored on a ground out to the ss and the second was scored on a fielders choice at 2nd.
by Big Red on Jul 21, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
The Diamondbacks
43 for 217
.198 BA
.332 SLG
18 RBI
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
They're prone to huge slumps
Pinella is getting too aggressive
Ramirez will lead off in a 2-2 game (baring the DBacks bumble their way into some runs).
I feel like registering for the DBacks blog and asking the site moderator to send an email to the DBacks front office telling them that use the handle part to hit with.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ram was batting
by Big Red on Jul 21, 2007 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
DBacks carry 3-2 lead
Aramis Ramirez has left 6 men on base today.
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2007 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Cubs lose
by Hardcore Legend on Jul 21, 2007 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I've got the Sox-Sox game
75 degrees outside, this could be a real good day!
Too bad
Not the duel it looked like
Table's set, Cardinals. Start making up ground tonight!
First off,
And as far as homerism is concerned, what do you call what Shannon, and Hrabosky do? Is it because they're "our guys" that makes it ok? If I'm listening to the Cards broadcast, and Shannon is doing the PBP, I have to have Gameday running so I know what's going on in the game; you sure as hell can't tell by listening to him.
Hughes is actually pretty good
They don't call it "The Pat and Ron Show" for nothing.
by Big Red on Jul 21, 2007 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Shelley Duncan
Congrats to the whole family.
Let's go
BeegcellentBaseball
by beegcellent on Jul 21, 2007 4:17 PM EDT reply actions
XM
Here area few of mine in no order...
Last night I didnt mind the braves guys especially as they clamored over AW's curve...had goos stories about him and other braves in minor leagues.
I like uker, just cause he jacks around..never forget him giving a smoking add when jeff tabaka came in to pitch fo rthe cards...
ones i don't care for
reds broadcasters they just suck..they go on and on worse than shannon and the innings over...
this list is incomplete but as i listen to more road games on XM ill have more.
my favorite radio guy
When Ichiro hits a triple it gets spine-tingling.
by CurtFlood on Jul 21, 2007 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
lineups per Yahoo
A. Miles 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .274
S. Schumaker rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .305
A. Pujols 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .319
C. Duncan lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .289
J. Edmonds cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .239
A. Kennedy 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .223
G. Bennett c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .225
B. Ryan ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .327
B. Looper p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .143
Native American Stereotypes
W. Harris lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .317
E. Renteria ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .329
C. Jones 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .341
A. Jones cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .218
B. McCann c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .269
J. Francoeur rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .291
K. Johnson 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .290
S. Thorman 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .215
B. Carlyle p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .062
Im putting money on a Jimmy Ballgame dinger
by Where is that Juan guy on Jul 21, 2007 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
that would be nice
I would assume
by Big Red on Jul 21, 2007 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
it's just frustrating
It absolutely does to me
I agree with Ryan at SS
by CurtFlood on Jul 21, 2007 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Lotsa Lefties
not to put the jinx on us
by CurtFlood on Jul 21, 2007 6:58 PM EDT reply actions
What happened to Loopers fastball?
You'd expect him to take a little off
could've been worse
Announcers awol
But does anyone know what happened to George Grande on the Reds' TV network? They have imported, uh, some guy from Cleveland, who uh, says "uh" a lot.
by CurtFlood on Jul 21, 2007 7:30 PM EDT reply actions
almost an amazing play by Ryan
get the DP LOOP. get the DP.
I am starting to like Ryan more and more
poop LOOP
where's YADDA? is Tony mad at him for the first inning last night?
i dont know who the SportsSouth main guy is, but he's an idiot. joe simpson used to be pretty good on TBS, now he just agree's with everything that moron says.
Dear Braden,
Sincerely,
Valatan
Danger LOOP! DANGER!
This is the worst-case scenario with
by CardFaninVA on Jul 21, 2007 7:52 PM EDT reply actions
Yep, you can make them hit it but
they've shown a lot of Tony&Dave
i guess thats what happens when the Cards have this kind of season. you age quickly.
So not good, Loop.
by Scarlet the Cardinal on Jul 21, 2007 8:16 PM EDT reply actions
Comeon
http://bryle.freehostia.com
by beegcellent on Jul 21, 2007 8:25 PM EDT reply actions
news flash
This is what you get
DUNK CRUSHED THAT BALL
you cant beat the crap out of the Cardinals. but you cant beat Albert & DUNK.
Oh, dear.......
i really miss Edgar
like that. what the FRACK!
this is embarrassing
way to defend your title Cardinals.
what a freaking joke. i can't believe i'm watching this.
oh how the mighty have fallen.
I wonder if...
Either that
unfortanetly i predicted this somewhat last night
so maybe they win tommorrow?
and the game mercifully ends
i swear i've said that about 30 times this season.
gah
Disagree
This starter experiment was cute for a month. It's obvious he cannot be a MLB starter at this point. He had quality starts 7 of his first 8 appearances, by which time he'd racked up a season's worth of innings. Since then, he's had four quality starts in 10 tries, and he's been bombed as often as not.
He'll still be fine in the pen. The starter experiment has failed. (IMO at least)
Tipping Pitches???
I have often wondered that myself....all the
Did you see Wainwrights strikeouts?
when every pitch is belt high
yes the Cards pitchers need to mix it up. for starters stop throwing belt high BP fastballs.





















