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We're not dead yet!

I contributed a pair of guest posts at Fungoes this week that I thought I'd shamelessly plug over here. Those of you that can't bear to wade through "Fantasyland B.S." won't find this very interesting but someone may this quick study useful.

Part I: Second Half ZiPS
Part II: How Good Must the Pitching Be?

To Summarize:

For the first one, I used the ZiPS in-season projection tool to estimate how much better the offense can be expected to perform after several players badly underproduced in the first half. The conclusion was that Edmonds, Rolen, and Kennedy can be expected to contribute at much better rates going forward, while ZiPS thinks that Duncan is playing over his head. I think ZiPS is underrating Duncan and it remains to be seen whether Rolen's shoulder responds to the cortisone shot, but Edmonds has looked great at times and Kennedy is a better player than he's looked most of the first half. The projections and Pinto's lineup toy gives us an estimate of how many runs the Cardinals can be expected to score per game this season and a total estimate of how many runs we'll score the rest of the year.

In the second post, I took the total run scored estimate down the stretch and plugged it into the Pythagorean expectation formula to get estimates of what rates the pitching and defense would need to hold opposition offenses to in order to reach win-loss targets that would put us in contention for the division lead.

The conclusion there is that the starters would have to pitch over their heads even in the case where the Cubs and Brewers collapse. They'd have to be phenomenal to catch the Brewers if they maintain their current pace and our offense produces as expected.

That's just an objective demonstration of what we already know: the season isn't quite over yet but the Cards will need to play much better the rest of the way to make it to the postseason—and they'll need to do it without Carpenter.

The next week gives us a golden opportunity to make up significant ground in the division. In the immortal words of Fezzik: "I hope we win."

PS: I'll plug Erik's guest post on Cardinal defensive performances while I'm cross-promoting: Whither the Leather.

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yes we are

by jojo5492 on Jul 20, 2007 10:05 PM EDT   0 recs

we're not completely done
look at the 2005 astros
Good Lord I can't wait for 2009!

by kyle man on Jul 20, 2007 10:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

oh yeah
i forgot that we have roy oswalt, andy pettite, and roger clemens

by jojo5492 on Jul 20, 2007 10:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahhaha
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahhaahahhahahahahahah hhahahaha

oh my god we are so done. let's start planning for '09.

by kindred on Jul 21, 2007 6:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

dude
i agree they play 162 games for a reason. now they do need to get better pitching.it will be diffcult but it is still possible.
HURRY BACK CARP AND MULDER

by LaRussa4President on Jul 20, 2007 10:23 PM EDT   0 recs

most importantly
we need the Brewers to lose. That's the tough part.
On with the youth movement!

by aet15 on Jul 20, 2007 11:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gotta say yes...
The worst thing that could happen to this team is that we start to win and get 5 or 6 games back.  Then, we don't sell...still don't make the playoffs (we aren't good enough) and '08 (possibly beyond) is just as bleak as '07.

Let's all realize, we are dead in the water.  We have exactly one starting pitcher that inspires any kind of confidence when he takes the mound.  You can't have winning streaks like that...you just can't.

Sorry, it's over.  Sell and get what you can.  Izzy should bring a top prospect, Looper maybe something useful, Eck the same as Looper and maybe someone will pay Enc's entire salry.

Call me a pesimist, or a realist, but '07 is over and likely '08 won't be much better.  '09 is when the kids will arrive, but young players usually take time to succeed at the big league level as well.  It may be a dark period for Cardinal baseball, but I for one would like to see the dark period played out by young, energetic players instead of old, tired vets.  Just my take.

Pitch to swing and misses...not contact. I've never heard of a "seeing eye K"

by bobbyballgame1 on Jul 21, 2007 2:07 AM EDT   0 recs

oh, liam
you're all piss and vinegar!
Boooo-urns.

by Alxfritz on Jul 21, 2007 2:22 AM EDT   0 recs

Wish I could
share your optimism, Liam. At least we won't have to wait much longer to find out if there is an icecube's chance in hell for this team. If we pummel the Cubs and Brewers, then there may just be a happy ending (or at least a respectable one). If they pummel us, well, that'll be the final nail in the 07 coffin. I wish the latter didn't seem to be the most probable outcome. But who knows: that's why they play the games. And I do love surprises.

by rockin redbird on Jul 21, 2007 2:46 AM EDT   0 recs

Yup
This next week is going to be either really, really fun or a terrible time.

I'll be watching either way.

I'm liking the way this Cubs game is going, and am glad we get to see the Brewers game on ESPN in a coupla hours. Things will look a lot brighter if we could go into next week down 6.5 games.

by liam on Jul 21, 2007 2:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Glad to hear some optimism;
also was glad to read in the PD that Jocketty
has ruled out any short term fixes and that only moves with long-term impact will be made.

by vinniefromjersey on Jul 21, 2007 9:42 AM EDT   0 recs

Forget about the Brewers.......
it's the Cubs I'm worried about.  They have been on a terrific hot streak and they play with an air of what my son calls "manifest destiny"...I mean they are Cubs and all, but they actually have a manager that knows how to win this time, and a great performance from Zambrano means no long losing streaks.  The players they called up from AAA have fit seamlessly into the line-up. Kiddies, they are for real.  I don't see that we can catch them....  

by jillsinmo on Jul 21, 2007 11:19 AM EDT   0 recs

True...
But we've seen the Manifest Destiny Cubs Movie before. It always ends the same way. We probably won't catch them, but have faith that a wrench will be thrown into their machine at some point. As you say, they are the Cubs. Snatching improbable defeat from the likely jaws of victory is what they do. There's a lot of baseball to be played yet this season--plenty of opportunities for the best laid plans to go awry. They are for real now--a revolting development, to be sure. But let's see where they are come september before getting too worked up. Look what happened with our "Manifest Destiny" teams of 02, 04, and 05 (among others). I think that tag can cause just as much harm as good to a hot team during the regular season. We know as well as anybody that it often doesn't translate to october baseball or october victories. As real as they look now, they haven't won anything yet.

by rockin redbird on Jul 21, 2007 12:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, sure...that's why they
play the games; it just as likely they will see the bubble burst.  But when you compare the Brewers/Cubs/Cards, the Cubs, at least at this point, look like the team with the best shot to get to the top.  It's a revolting development, IMHO......

by jillsinmo on Jul 21, 2007 12:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Brewers
They have the best winning percentage in the division, that's the only reason I used them to figure out how many wins we'd need to take the division. The Cubs would just have to play that much better than the Brewers, but the result's the same—the Cardinals pitching and defense will have to be phenomenal the rest of the way for us to have a chance at contention. That's obvious, duh, just wanted to quantify how phenomenal they'd have to be.

by liam on Jul 21, 2007 2:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We have a fighting chance
Our pitching has been performing decently lately hopefully this cortisone shot will get Rolen on a hot streak.
Hopefully we can get on a roll but I absolutely hate all this crappy gloom and doom just watch the game and enjoy baseball wow... who cares if we lose its just a game enjoy.

by Calhoun on Jul 21, 2007 12:38 PM EDT   0 recs

This isn't Monty Python...
Dude, while there remains a slight chance in hell, the prognosis is terminal.

That being said, I think there's still a lot of reasons to watch and be involved.

Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa. ~Bob Veale, 1966

by bukowski on Jul 21, 2007 1:01 PM EDT   0 recs

this next week decides if we have a chance
if we lose half and win half then we're screwed
Good Lord I can't wait for 2009!

by kyle man on Jul 21, 2007 4:16 PM EDT   0 recs

Um, Liam, did you
see tonights game?  You might want to rethink this a bit......

by jillsinmo on Jul 22, 2007 12:20 AM EDT   0 recs

Chin up, Kiddo!
Losing one game 6-14 is better than losing two 3-7, eh?

We win tomorrow, we all feel a little better.

by liam on Jul 22, 2007 4:16 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Soooooo....
Has Kyle Russell signed yet?

by cardzfan24 on Jul 22, 2007 12:06 PM EDT   0 recs

no not yet i don't think
Good Lord I can't wait for 2009!

by kyle man on Jul 22, 2007 2:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I actually read somewhere that he's making
plans to return to school.....you can take that as a no

by jillsinmo on Jul 22, 2007 7:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

School is..
OVERRATED!!  Sign with the Cards, Russell!!!

by cardzfan24 on Jul 22, 2007 11:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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