Chris Duncan's last 162 games...

by glamboomer on Jul 13, 2007 12:11 AM EDT Comment 11 comments

162 games played since being called up for good on May 21, 2006. Here's his line...

512 AB / .291 / .371 / .570
150 H / 38 HR / 100 R / 90 RBI
65 BB / 137 KO / 7 GIDP

In that time span, Duncan ranks 12th in MLB in slugging percentage, ahead of Hafner, Holliday, Vlad, Soriano, Utley & Berkman to name a few...

At this point, he seems to be our own Adam Dunn, what with the monsterous bodies, the adventures in LF & the massive HR/Flyball ratio (21.9% this year; 5th in MLB).. Dunc strikes out a little less, but doesn't walk as much & hits for a higher average than Dunn, but I think the comparison holds a bit of water & if Chris Duncan = Adam Dunn, I'm really pleased...

I guess the reason I'm posting this is to see if you all think that Chris Duncan is a "core" guy, & by that, I mean do you all think that this 162 game sample is what Chris Duncan really is?.

I know I thought last year had "fluke" written all over it, but after watching him this year, I'm not so sure about that at all..
His line drive rate is down from last year (21.1% to 16.7%), as is his prodigious HR rate (29.3% to 21.9%), but he's getting much bigger hits this year (.183 RISP in 2006; .346 RISP this year) & doesn't seem to be as clueless on the breaking stuff as he was late last year.

Is he getting better? How much better can he get?
What do you think?
(stats courtesy of Baseball Musings & Hardball Times, so you all don't think I'm makin' these up...)

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CompareInfo.py?StartDate=05%2F21%2F2006&EndDate=07%2F08%2 F2007&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&SortField=CASE+WHEN+AtBats+%3E0 +THEN+%28Hits%2BDoubles%2B2.0*Triples%2B3.0*HomeRuns%29%2FAtBats+ELSE+0.0+END&SortDir=desc&M inPA=502&MinG=0&MinGS=0&MinAB=0&MinR=0&MinH=0&MinDB=0&MinTP=0&MinHR= 0&MinRBI=0&MinBB=0&MinIBB=0&MinHP=0&MinK=0&MinSB=0&MinCS=0&MinSH=0&a mp;MinSF=0&MinGDP=0&MinCI=0

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?playerId=2722&firstName=Chris%20E& lastName=Duncan

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy= hrPerF&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=2&a mp;pos_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit
Boomer.

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He's letting WAAAY too many fastballs go by

I am sure it is part of the Cardinals braintrust getting him to be a more disciplined hitter but he is letting grooved fastballs go by in hitter's counts. At the very least, he's letting first pitch fastballs go by too.

I think that may be why we are seeing his HR/AB rate going down.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 13, 2007 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

impressive

I didn't realize he had put up those kinda numbers. I too thought last year was a fluke, but he's impressed this year and those numbers further reinforce the idea that he just might be a legit MLB slugger.

10-time World Champs!

by TheFranchise9 on Jul 13, 2007 12:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And I think it's now time for him to be

put in the line up everyday, against all pitchers and keep him in there UNLESS he proves to you he can't hit left handers with any conisitency.

by jillsinmo on Jul 13, 2007 12:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I meant to say consistency.....

by jillsinmo on Jul 13, 2007 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan's LH splits..

2006:
47 AB / .170 / .220 / .319 / 3 BB / 14 KO
2007:
57 AB / .263 / .333 / .404 / 6 BB / 22 KO

Not great, but the important thing is the all-around improvement.
You're totally right...
LET HIM PLAY!
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 13, 2007 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Willie McCovey

start his career not getting to hit against LHP?

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jul 13, 2007 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes! and a little no..

Willie McCovey's rookie year (1959)
VS LHers
53 AB / .340 / .407 / .660 / 5 BB / 12 KO
Look what happened the next year...
1960
70 AB / .129 / .235 / .214 / 10 BB / 25 KO
Ooof..
So, I think that's a "yes"*
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Jul 13, 2007 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

I think Chris Duncan is a BETTER hitter than adam dunn. If I had to pick one of the two to go up against a tough closer in an important game, Duncan is the one I'd pick, even though Dunn has several more years of experience. Duncan might not hit as many home runs, (though he might!) but he also won't bat .225 or strike out 195 times in a season. He hits good pitches hard, and can sometimes lay off the outside slider, though his reputation as "guy who strikes out" hurts him (duncan has had at least 5 called strike 3's this year which were just plain wrong calls). Dunn is just a big guy that hits mistakes.

Duncan's OBP is going to go through the roof when TLR stops batting him in front of pujols. It's already as good as Dunn's because of his BA advantage; when pitcher sart to realize that he is being protected by encarnacion or rolen, they are going to walk him a lot more. He'll be at 400+ next year.

Don't Panic!!!

by SleepyCA on Jul 13, 2007 1:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is this the right board

If I recall correctly there were alot of people wanting to trade him last winter? I believe it was said his stock would never be higher and he was a fluke. To all of those I tried to sway to the good side of wanting to keep him "I told you so.", and to everyone that I agreed with and vice versa "Thanks". There was a pretty decent thread on him this last winter. I'm not sure how to put the link in but if some one can fix it off this go for it. http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2007/1/9/222111/2506

by DJ4508 on Jul 13, 2007 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

definitely a legit "core" guy

162 games spread over two years is a good enough sample size for me. The league's had time to adjust to Duncan and figure out his holes, and he's still producing -- even when hitting behind Albert instead of in the 2-hole.

Can you all imagine just how bad our offense would be w/out Dunc? His inexpensive production is making up for the extreme lack of production from two big-money players, Edmonds and Rolen.

And by all means Duncan should be in there every day, even against lefties. That '07 split against LH's that glamboomer posted above is fine w/me -- it's much better than Ludwick's, who has a nasty reverse split: .196/.211/.339 against lefties, .309/.347/.618 against RHs. C'mon, Tony, play the kid every day!

by DCRedbird on Jul 13, 2007 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs