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holding our attention

welcome, bernie miklasz, to the blogosphere: his new blog, Bernie's Extra Points, launched last night at 7:31 p.m., and by midnight he already had a second post up. best wishes to ya, sir.

for those of you who are geeked up about the amateur draft, i'll put up a separate thread to track it once the selections begin (~1 pm central). at the bottom of the current post, i've tucked in some links to other sites (cardinal-centric and otherwise) that have draft previews and/or will be blogging the draft live. a quick caveat: SB Nation crashed a couple of times during last year's draft because the traffic was so high. we've got bigger servers and better architecture now, and it's believed we will weather the onslaught of traffic this year --- but if there's a service interruption, you'll know why. if we do crash, we won't be down long . . . . .

anyway, set all that aside while i get a few thoughts off my chest about the big-league club, which is doing its damnedest to hold our attention. they're now 10-5 since getting swept by the tigers and have gone 3-1-1 in series; they're alone in 2d place and only 3 games out in the loss column. above all, the cardinals have finally begun to hit. here are the national league rankings in runs per game over the last 30 days (ie, back to may 8, inclusive); runs allowed per game are also included in the table to balance things out:

r / g ra / g
5.1 phillies 1st padres 2.4
5.0 cardinals 2nd giants 3.8
4.9 pirates 3rd dbacks 3.8
4.8 nationals 4th mets 3.9
4.6 dbacks 5th dodgers 4.3
4.5 cubs 6th marlins 4.3
4.5 marlins 7th nationals 4.6
4.5 braves 8th braves 4.6
4.3 giants 9th pirates 4.8
4.3 reds 10th rockies 4.8
4.3 dodgers 11th cardinals 4.9
4.2 rockies 12th brewers 4.9
4.2 padres 13th cubs 4.9
4.1 mets 14th phils 5.1
3.9 astros 15th astros 5.3
3.8 brewers 16th reds 6.0

that list covers the cards' last 26 games; in the first 30 games of this year, st louis scored 3.1 runs a game. it's becoming increasingly safe to write off those first 30 games as just one of those months; check out these numbers and tell me which ones aren't like the others:

avg
(nl rank)
obp
(nl rank)
slg
(nl rank)
hr / g
(nl rank)
r / g
(nl rank)
w-l
(nl rank)
through May 7, 2007 .237 (15) .300 (16) .332 (16) 0.57 (16) 3.1 (15) 12-18 (15)
since May 7, 2007 .279 (1) .332 (3) .431 (2) 1.00 (6) 5.0 (2) 14-12 (8)
2006 entire .269 (4) .337 (5) .431 (8) 1.14 (5) 4.9 (6) 83-78 (5)

that first month now takes on a different cast, doesn't it? now we can say that edmonds was still out of shape, eckstein was shaking off the recurrence of his oblique strain, encarnacion was unavailable, pujols was trying to do everything by himself, and the whole team was mentally unprepared --- hung over from last season and dispirited by carpenter's injury (and, temporarily, by josh hancock's death). but in the last 30 days edmonds has regained his power stroke, eckstein has started swinging hard again, pujols has settled down, and the cardinals have been playing a real major-leaguer in right field. he's no all-star, but encarnacion is a far sight better than skip schumaker and a one-legged preston wilson. we all sneered when the cardinals suggested, about a month ago, that juan'cion's return to the lineup might spark the offense back to life; ha ha ha, guess what? the bats really have come back to life since he returned: team totals were .237 / .305 / .328 (3.2 runs /game) before he rejoined the team, vs .284 / .330 / .448 (5.2 runs/game) since he got back on may 13. i wouldn't give juan all the credit for that, nor even the majority of the credit --- but he surely has made a positive difference. 'nother table:

avg obp slg hr rbi
encarnacion .250 .273 .431 3 10
other rfs .203 .255 .273 1 15

by the way, all three of encarnacion's homers broke a tie and put the cardinals in front in a game they would go on to win.

ok, so let's take stock. i hereby declare the offense repaired --- still not an elite unit, but no longer a sump into which victories disappear. the bullpen has been lion-hearted all year; no worries about that so far. the defense is coming around. that leaves the rotation. they've got two reliable starters (looper and wainwright) and a decent #5 (thompson); if either wells or reyes (if he ever gets another chance) can step up and pitch at a league-average level for a month, then the cardinals might just survive until carpenter gets back.

roster news: andy cavazos joins the big club, while brendan ryan returns to the minors. cavazos will become the 6th player to make his big-league debut for the cards in the first 10 weeks of the season, joining cate, dove, jimenez, esposito, and ryan.

* * * * * * * * *

ok, the draft: it's on espn2 beginning at 1 pm central, but if you're following along at work (or even if you aren't) the best place to track the action is at mlb.com's Draft Central. this is particularly true if, like most of us, you'll be dropping in from time to time throughout the day for periodic updates (as opposed to following the whole draft pick by pick); mlb.com is the quickest and best way to get up to speed on the cardinals' picks and find a little bit of information about each draftee. after the cards make their selections, you can search for the player by name via the Draft Tracker and see if there's any scouting video. if there is, please do not post the video at this site; i'll have to take it down if you do, as our network servers can't handle 3 megs of video, times X selections, times 30 major-league teams. if there's video of a particular player available, please just link to it over at Draft Tracker.

other sites to visit before / during the draft:

  • Future Redbirds: azruavatar will be live-blogging as the draft unfolds. also, he and erik have done the best cardinal-specific draft previewing anywhere on the web, so if you can't wait for the draft to start head over the there before the draft begins and scroll back through the last few weeks' posts --- numerous scouting reports, mock-drafts, and musings about which players the cards might be taking in the first round.
  • derrick goold will be live-blogging at Bird Land today; he has direct access to scouts and front-office personnel and may be able to provide some insights from those guys during the draft.
  • SB Nation brother site Minor League Ball will be all over the draft today. john sickels has seen a lot of these guys play in person, and his community is knowledgeable and very active. sickels ran a 5-round mock draft (with supplemental 1st round) over the weekend, by the way; here's who the cardinals' mock-drafters selected:
    1. kevin ahrens, hs 3bman
    2. pete kozma, hs shortstop
    3. nathan vinyard, hs pitcher
    4. wes roerner, cal st fullerton pitcher
    5. eric sogard, ariz state 2bman
    6. dan schlereth, u of ariz pitcher
    7. dj jones, hs outfielder
    two years ago, the cards' mock-drafters accurately forecast the first-round selection of tyler greene; let's see how well they do this year.
  • i wouldn't be surprised to find danup posting at Get Up Baby during the draft today
  • two of the most knowledgeable prospect watchers in the biz, kevin goldstein and bryan smith, will be live-blogging at Baseball Prospectus.
  • another know-it-all, jonathan mayo, will be on duty at his mlb.com draft blog.
  • Baseball Analysts will be live-blogging the first round and the supplemental.
  • if you're a subscriber to Baseball America, they've got perhaps the best depth and breadth of information of all. i'm not a subscriber; anybody who is, feel free to share any useful tidbits (with respect for copyright rules) that you glean there.
i'll put up a fresh draft-tracking thread when things get underway.

0 recs  |  Comment 35 comments

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by the way, the padres' runs-allowed figure
is not a typo. they've only given up 62 runs in the last 30 days (26 games).

by lboros on Jun 7, 2007 9:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

they're scary
Right now they have to be the pick to represent the NL.  If they have Peavy and Young pitch at the away park and Maddux and Wells pitch at PetCo Canyon that's an awesome playoff rotation.

Their only potential problem is that many of there good hitters are either young (Gonzalez, Blum, Kouz~off) or streaky (Cameron).

by enoscountry on Jun 7, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only...
if they dont have to face the Cards again in the first round of the playoffs. they had great pitching last year as well, but couldn't get it done in the playoffs.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jun 7, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the thing is...
they didnt have maddux last year, and apparently he has been a great inspiration for those young starters, peavey said in an interview i saw that maddux is THE reason he has started out so well this year
Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Jun 7, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
To Val, LB, Erik, and everyone else who contributes to VeB.

A question for folks on our stacked Springfield team..  
What are the future plans for Joe Mather?  I don't know a lot about him, but have been following his stats a little this year.
He has overtaken Colby for 2nd in the league in OPS and SLG.  He's also overtaken him in the league lead in RBI's and he's leading the league w/ 16 HR's in 53 games. He'll be 25 next month, which seems like an age that he should be about ready for major league action.

I see one big problem, however, milb.com tells me that he plays first base and I've been told that we have our first baseman signed for a while.

Is he someone that we will want to change defensive positions or possibly look at trading for a veteran at somepoint?
Just looking for some thoughts from folks who know more about the farm system than myself.

by toris34 on Jun 7, 2007 9:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

mather has been playing the outfield
for several years, even though he's listed as a first baseman. he played over 200 games in the outfield at class A from 2004-2006, and most of his games this year have been in the outfield.

having said that, my guess is that mather is a prime candidate to be traded to some organization that needs a first base prospect.

by lboros on Jun 7, 2007 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mather
Originally drafted out of high school as a shortstop in the third round because of his power, Mather was quickly converted to third base.  He developed very slowly as a hitter and languished for several years in the lowest rungs of the system, winning promotions more because of his potential than his statistics.  He did, in fact, seem to improve with each promotion, doing a bit better the higher he climbed.  He only really started to come on when he reached Palm Beach a couple of years ago and only now is having his first taste of Double A.  Typically, with this promotion he is having his best year yet.  In recent years he has been mostly playing in the outfield; only this season has he played a lot of first base.  His career in its slow trajectory is somewhat reminiscent of that of Terry Evans, although he lacks the latter's speed.  He may similarly become trade bait, but if he remains in the Cardinal system and continues to develop, I can see him becoming something of an Eduardo Perez type, a power righthanded bat off the bench who is also capable of filling in capably if not spectacularly at both of the outfield and the infield corners.  Such a talent is, in my view, not one to be lightly disregarded--think also of Spezio--and I for one would like to see him stick around, if only because I have been following him closely ever since his relatively high draft selection about a half dozen years ago.

by MikeG on Jun 7, 2007 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Joey Bombs....
they actually did a piece on him last night after the Cardinals game. Seems like a good kid who is finally living up to his potential. Sounds like this years Terry Evans.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jun 7, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I saw him play last night
While Colby was striking out left and right,* Mather was adding to his Home Run total with a bomb to left field. Unfortunately when he batted as the potential winning run in the bottom of the 9th he couldn't come up with another one.

I talked to Mather before the season started. The guy is a giant, at least compared to me. He's ripped. He looks like a member of the cast of the movie 300. He was supposed to blog for the magazine I work for through the season, but he has flaked out on us. No biggie. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he goes on to have a successful career. That said, I hope he doesn't end up like a J Rod, forever stuck in AAA after spending time in the bigs.

*Not to insult Rasmus. Dude's a stud, too.

Larry Walker for hitting coach!

by effin fisk on Jun 7, 2007 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

punchless brewdies?
very telling on why the brewers have been crashing back to earth.  early in the season it seemed like their offense was scoring a lot of runs.

by imissrex on Jun 7, 2007 10:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Drafting high schoolers?
Given Luhnow's professed belief in college players, I question sickels projection that the Cards open the draft with three straight high schoolers.  

For some perspective, BP's two mock drafters both project STL to go with college players in the first round.  Kevin Goldstein projects Julio Borbon, Tennessee center fielder, while Bryan Smith projects Casey Weathers, rhp from Vanderbilt.

Of course, all this conjecture expires in about four hours.

by bgodar on Jun 7, 2007 10:21 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Luhnow said....
he is going for a homerun pick at 18. College players aren't homerun picks.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jun 7, 2007 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You know...
Someone pointed out that of the Cards 22 picks in the top five rounds from '04-'06, only five have been high schoolers. Yet those five include Bryan Anderson and Rasmus, two of the Cards best picks.

by guayzimi on Jun 7, 2007 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And...
Barton in '03 came out of high school as well.

by guayzimi on Jun 7, 2007 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, that's a phrase we need to reserve
for future use:  "a sump into which victories disappear."

by sdrone on Jun 7, 2007 10:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bad feeling
The Cards have been winning a lot lately, and it feels like they're playing well, but even over this run, they're still only a handful of differential runs in the black.  Maybe you can expect to outplay with Pythagorean with the superior bullpen and the defensive substitutions, but I would guess this doesn't bode well.  

by Jonathan23 on Jun 7, 2007 10:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yup
I'm very happy that we are inching back into contention, but anytime you're running a starter out there that got cut by the freakin' Royals every 5th day you're flirting with disaster. If we can hold it together for a couple of months a rotation of Carp, Loop, Wainwright, Reyes, and Mulder/Thompson in August/September looks pretty good though.

by mikedallas23 on Jun 7, 2007 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
We just need someone to keep us in the game because lately the offense is showing the ability to actually battle to get some extra runs in the late innings. At this point, a card-board cut out of Dan Haren would do.

by TNFan32 on Jun 7, 2007 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Beware
of a bullpen implosion soon.  I'll say this for Tony, though - he does know how to manage a bullpen, as far as keeping 'em sharp/keeping 'em fresh.  I'm glad he brought an extra arm up finally.  
Cavazos' line:
25.0 IP/1-2/3.96/24 HA/14 BB/28 SO/.253 avg.

Has anyone seen him pitch?  His lefty/righty splits are odd.

by silent_bob on Jun 7, 2007 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Luckily...
It is still the NL Central.
Quick... Everybody back on the bandwagon!

by Alxfritz on Jun 7, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the MLB post-season
is a "Crapshoot" (or, as I like to call it, the Triumph of Small Sample Size)... then, what's the MLB draft? A Ouija Board?

Oh, I'll watch the first round, and check out the Cards' picks here and elsewhere throughout the day... but I'll admit from the get-go that I have absolutely NO idea which players will actually become tomorrow's big-leaguers.

I do think that the Cards' addition of Jeff Luhnow gives them a better chance to have a "good" draft; and I don't intend to rain on anybody else's parade... I just think the premise "Youneverknow" applies to any professional sports draft.

I mean, Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round! Who knew??? The Cards may get some guy late who turns out to be a better player than any of the guys they take early!

It's a beautiful day for a ballgame!

by The Ol Goaler on Jun 7, 2007 12:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
It's so hard to really be able to predict who is going to come up from AA and compete in the majors, much less coming out of non-professional baseball

by Valatan on Jun 7, 2007 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

draft question
What is the set number of rounds in the draft?

by rvacardsfan4ever on Jun 7, 2007 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no doubt it's a crap shoot
but there are teams that consistently draft well --- the braves and marlins immediately leap to mind --- and teams that consistently don't (eg, the cardinals before luhnow). i agree with you, i know nothing at all about these players, and even the professional scouts --- who know everything about them --- are just taking educated guesses. none of it means much until the players start competing against other pros. but there is an art to it, and so far luhnow seems to have done better than his predecessors in the organization.

by lboros on Jun 7, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mock pick #2 Pete Kozma
We in Tulsa have been hearing alot about this guy, who plays HS ball in Owasso, a suburb.  He's getting more buzz around here than I think a high school player has enjoyed in a long time.  He's signed a LOI w/ Wichita State.

If he does indeed get drafted by the Cards I'll see if I can get some links up.

by Hoffa on Jun 7, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Tomo Ohka has been DFAed
by the Blue Jays. I think he is definitely worth a shot.
Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Jun 7, 2007 1:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Heh. Is he Japanese?
Use Tomo and So to lure Ichiro.

Which won't happen, but hey.  I can yap.

by sdrone on Jun 7, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i thought the cards should have gone for him
during the off-season . . . . but with more info now in hand, he doesn't look like a great idea. his shoulder does not appear to be sound; he injured it last spring and hasn't been the same since. his last 4 monthly era's:

aug 06 --- 6.62
sep 06 --- 8.18
apr 06 --- 5.02
may 06 --- 5.62

this year he only has had 2 quality starts in 10 tries.

by lboros on Jun 7, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Those should read
april 07
may 07

for those following at home.

Interested in pre-1990 Cardinals games on tape

by Hardcore Legend on Jun 7, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trade
Trade Encarnasada to the Red Sox for Matsuzaka, to get a third Japanese player, as well as opening up an outfield spot for Ichiro.  :)
Free Anthony Reyes!

by sgfcards on Jun 7, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

never happen i know your dreaming,
but then it could read Dice K the Gyroball of the midwest or something like that, or th emost overhyped thing in the midwest you choose.
Kelly Stinnett the new power to the cards lineup.

by punchinjudy on Jun 7, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

funny
Look, we have to take some pride in the NL Central here," he said. "We're the worst division in baseball. The NL West is even better than us. As sick as this may sound, the Colorado Rockies would be in second place if they were in this division. If that doesn't put the fear of God into you, I don't know what will."
Kelly Stinnett the new power to the cards lineup.

by punchinjudy on Jun 7, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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